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Heading into 2021, it seemed evident that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine had things under control. They modernized the organization analytically, assembled a farm system of players seemingly ready to make an instant impact, and had just won two straight division titles – the franchise's first since 2010. The organization seemed poised for sustainable success with its leadership's thoughtful, cutting-edge decision-making steering the ship. There have always been critics of this front office, but on the back of 2021 and 2022, they have grown louder and multiplied. Some will question the regime's competency, others will criticize their lack of an "ace," and a vocal group of critics will question whether their entire philosophy and reliance on data is the right way to run a baseball team. Let's examine what this group has done well and poorly to evaluate whether the boisterous critics of Falvey and Levine are onto something. Front Office Strengths Development of Homegrown Major League Bats Terry Ryan, a scout by trade, always prided himself on putting together rosters built around cores of homegrown position player talent. This ability to construct a nucleus of quality hitters drafted or acquired via international free agency has carried over to the current regime. It's a critical skill when working with a middling payroll. The Twins can distribute their funds to a few extra quality players because they have team-friendly structures with most position players. Beyond utilizing those homegrown bats in everyday roles, they have shown an ability to develop hitters that they can flip in trades – even if they weren't top picks. That allowed them to acquire Tyler Mahle, and it could come into play again at this deadline when trying to bolster a playoff-caliber roster. Increased Aggression in Acquiring High-End Talent Under the current front office, the Twins have shown a more aggressive approach than the previous regime when acquiring high-end talent, and they've continued grown more emboldened over seven years at the helm. We first saw that when they acquired Nelson Cruz ahead of the 2019 season. That aggression grew when they signed Josh Donaldson to a record free agent deal. While this contract didn't pan out, it made a statement. They traded Donaldson while he still had some value, which enabled them to pay Carlos Correa, breaking the Donaldson contract record. Of course, they eventually shattered Correa's record when they re-signed him. Add in various trades – including the ones that brought in all five of this year's starting rotation members – and the increased aggressiveness is undeniable. Front Office Weaknesses Bullpen Construction and Reliever Free Agents One common thread between the losing seasons in 2021 and 2022 was bullpen meltdowns from newly acquired pitchers. In 2021, Alex Colomé deflated the team and its fans with his early-season implosions. In 2022, the Twins traded Taylor Rogers for Emilio Pagán. He held it together for a bit but memorably cost the Twins multiple times against Cleveland as the Guardians sped away in the divisional race. Beyond those memorable blowups, they have repeatedly tried to sign relief pitchers on small short-term deals, but most haven't worked out either. Due to the volatility of relievers, building a good bullpen is extremely difficult, but the Twins have rarely had enough homegrown arms or capable enough external additions to do so. It may be different this season, but it's one thing to have a good group on paper and another for them to succeed in games. Starting Pitching Development and Free Agent Acquisitions When the Pohlads tapped Falvey as president of baseball operations, they touted him for his role in building the terrific pitching development pipeline in Cleveland. However, Falvey has yet to materialize that level of pitching development success in Minnesota. To this point, Bailey Ober is the only homegrown starting pitcher that has proven to be major-league caliber during the Falvey and Levine era. Others may be on the precipice, including Simeon Woods Richardson, Louie Varland, and David Festa. However, they all have yet to prove they can be quality starters at the major-league level. Beyond the lack of internal development, the front office has invested very little into starting pitchers on the free agent market. Most of their free agent starter acquisitions have been bargain-bin signings, like Homer Bailey, Dylan Bundy and Matt Shoemaker. Most of those did not work out, with their only successful free agent starter addition being Michael Pineda. Not developing starting pitching and not paying for it in free agency has been one of the most significant flaws of this regime. They may have put together a good rotation for 2023 via trade, but the development of their starting pitching prospects this season will be a crucial storyline to monitor. If the strengths remain strong and they have improved their weaknesses, the front office should have put together a winning team in 2023. If so, their future will be clearer as the organization's leaders. However, if their bullpen construction weakness rears its head again and tanks their season, and we don't see progress in developing quality starters, the Twins may be at the point of considering a front-office shakeup. Ownership is investing in this team like never before and that comes with heightened expectations.

Jim Pohlad will still be involved with the Twins to a degree but as his 70th birthday approaches next month, he decided it was time for him to pass his day-to-day roles to Joe Pohlad. Jim Pohlad will still be the team’s representative in ownership for any league matters. Many Twins fans ponder what will be different with Joe Pohlad compared to Jim Pohlad. From the first three months on the job, it’s already apparent to some fans that Joe is more public-facing and involved with the front office. For starters, Dan Hayes of the Athletic wrote in his piece on Joe Pohlad (published February 14) that, unlike his uncle and grandfather’s time as the Twins chairman, he will be keeping an office at Target Field. On top of that, Joe Pohlad was heavily involved in making sure the Twins brought back superstar shortstop Carlos Correa and gave him the largest contract in team history. “I can think of no better way to articulate the seamless transition from Jim, his uncle to Joe than what we just went through,” said Derek Falvey during Correa’s press conference on January 11. “Ultimately going back to March and the contract we came up with, and then this offseason. Joe's been a part of those conversations for the last five plus years, at least that I've been here. So I expected that but Joe's patience was matched in a similar way, what Scott [Boras] and Carlos were showing, but also that persistence and that desire to find a way to get to this outcome.” Later during the press conference, Twins Daily co-owner John Bonnes followed up on this quote from Falvey asking Joe Pohlad if the large contract for Correa was a sign of things to come with future free agent deals. Joe Pohlad responded saying, “We'll take that on a case-by-case basis. Like Derek said earlier, we're in constant communication, and we're always looking at ways to make our team better. So if those opportunities come forward, then we'll evaluate that [them] then.” While Joe Pohlad has had a more active role in team transactions than his uncle in the last five years according to Falvey, he still does not want to become or be seen as an owner “who’s always meddling,” as Hayes wrote in the same article on February 14. Joe Pohlad’s interaction in the team’s baseball operations since returning to the front office in 2018 has not come without experience. He spent time as an assistant in the baseball operations department beginning in 2007. His experience there, which not many owners in Major League Baseball have had, sheds light that he is willing to shed the common trope Twins fans attribute to his family; the “Cheap Pohlads.” When asked individually at the January 11 press conference if Correa’s re-signing shows critical fans that ownership is committed to building the team for a championship, Joe Pohlad responded, “I hope so. I think how we view it, or at least how I view it, is this the best route for us in order to get to where we want to be, which is a competitive team that can compete for a World Series?. Ultimately, the goal is to win and is every move we make going to add to that and achieve that goal? And this [signing] is gonna do that.” Joe Pohlad was built up in the Twins organization to be fitted for this role. He’s worked in a variety of roles within the Twins in anticipation of the day when this role was bestowed on him. In an era of Major League Baseball where the reputations of team owners usually bring negative connotations to their franchises, Joe Pohlad may be the outlier. Especially when compared to the ownership of teams such as the Houston Astros’ Jim Crane, the Cincinnati Reds’ Phil Castellini, and the Baltimore Orioles’ John Angelos. Joe Pohlad is in a similar boat as Castellini and Angelos with other family members (specifically the fathers of Castellini and Angelos), who are still living and have the ownership of the team in their name. Unlike the two though, Joe Pohlad has not made any comments that have had fanbases question their commitments to their franchises or the game of baseball. As the first full season with Joe Pohlad at the helm warms up in Ft. Myers for spring training, he has demonstrated many reasons for Twins fans to hope things are changing for the better. Maybe even enough to made the phrase, “Cheap Pohlads” be heard less often as fans return to Target Field for the 2023 season.

With details emerging somewhat late for many of the events surrounding Twins Fest, there was little room to understand some of the changes this year. The Winter Caravan was back but in a significantly truncated form. The route was not nearly as long, and plenty of it was in more private or intimate settings. Twins Fest (as we have known it) at Target Field had been shortened to just Saturday, and plenty of the vendors or experiences had been less expansive. A key addition came on Friday night, however, and details leading up to the event were sparse. Following a night at the Diamond Awards on Thursday, I found myself wondering what Friday had in store. Opting for the middle level ticket option, I searched for some details and wound up winging it on Friday night. There was a sold out level that included an open bar and additional face time with players, and there was a get-in ticket that was just $35 allowing access to the general admission floor. The middle ground option came with a pair of drink tickets, gift at the end, appetizers during the early part of the evening, and access to the mezzanine level of The Fillmore. Looking back at the night, that felt like the right option to target. The Fillmore itself is a very nice venue. Having never before been inside, I found myself comparing it to a smaller version of First Avenue. Conveniently located right outside of Target Field, the parking ramp adjacent to Caribou Coffee behind left field was a quick place to pull in. Check in was a breeze, and the event seemed to have a perfect amount of attendees and space. For the crowd here at Twins Daily, it’s hard to define the evening as anything but a team-sponsored Winter Meltdown. The bars were manned by players at times, and Joe Ryan had quite the experience making the evening’s featured cocktail. It was something to see Chris Paddack donning a cowboy hat and slanging beers, but both Joey Gallo and Jorge Polanco had plenty of fun interacting with fans. A stage set up at the front of the venue was the focal point to kick off the program. Something like 30 current and former players were in attendance, and each was introduced. From Glen Perkins to Kent Hrbek, and Royce Lewis to Carlos Correa, the Twins had their bases covered. After fans were made aware of who was there, a select group of players took part in Family Feud and other on stage activities. That certainly gave fans something to watch, but it was the crowd that commanded the most attention. From the minute I walked in, there were people I wanted to talk with. Derek Falvey was near the door while both Tony Oliva and Paul Molitor were canvassing the general admission floor. On the upper level, I found myself having discussions with Dave St. Peter and Thad Levine, then the players began to filter in as well. With those not participating in the games on stage set out to mingle, there was conversation with everyone from Royce Lewis to Brooks Lee and regulars in between. As a no-autograph event, everything about the evening felt right. Yes there were fans looking for pictures with players, but it was certainly an exercise of baseball being the focal point. Whether discussing someone’s career, last season, or the one upcoming, having conversations focused on the diamond was truly a blast. Being able to sit back and enjoy the company of superstars as little more than regular people was quite a fun setting. Next year it would seem logical that this event will do a bit better. Although a few different Twins sources suggested being pleased with the turnout, there probably could have been better numbers with a bit more understanding of what to expect. When we see Twins Fest Live show up again in 2024, it would stand to reason that you may not have as much luck finding a ticket. Signature Saturday has its place if you’re looking for autographs or memorabilia, but I found myself viewing this event as the gem of the weekend. Please share your stories and experiences from the Twins weekend - from the Diamond Awards, to Twins Fest Live(!) to Signature Saturday. It's fun to talk baseball and have this space to share those stories, and photos, if you want.

It’s easy to say that Carlos Correa fell onto the Twins’ laps, not once, but twice. But it’s worth examining the many roster developments that led to the club being able to have an opening on their lap to begin with. From dealing with a revolving door of stopgap shortstops, to injuries that dimmed the long-term outlook of the position and the creation of financial flexibility through trades and early extensions -- that long road led to this franchise-altering move. It’s the butterfly effect. If things had gone differently to the slightest degree, who knows if Correa and his family wind up in the Twin Cities on Wednesday, where the star shortstop signed a mega deal that will keep him in the fold for at least six more years. Each of the six seasons that led to Correa’s newly-signed contract followed a similar pattern with minor variations throughout. Finally, the front office’s efforts to create that financial flexibility aligned with the club’s needs and the availability of a star player. Let’s take a look at all the action (or inaction) that led to the Twins landing another franchise cornerstone. 2017 While Derek Falvey and Thad Levine officially took over as the heads of the Twins’ baseball operations department in the fall of 2016, this season was almost like a barometer for them. Instead of starting their tenures with a bang in free agency or via trade, they decided to mostly stand pat with minor or mostly-inconsequential moves. They also remained relatively quiet at the trade deadline. Maybe that’s due to a lack of confidence that an over-achieving team could make a serious run in the postseason, or maybe they genuinely didn’t like any of the offers they were getting for players like Brian Dozier, Byron Buxton , etc. The team miraculously made the playoffs but was taken down by the mighty New York Yankees yet again in a one-game play-in wild card game. While discouraged by how the season ended, spirits remained high and fans clamored for free agent reinforcements heading into the off-season. 2018 Again, the Twins’ front office decided to wait out the free agent market, signing Lance Lynn and Logan Morrison to cheaper, low-commitment deals. Then, in spring training, Jorge Polanco tested positive for a banned substance and was suspended for the first half of the season. It’s a big blow to the team, as Polanco’s numbers in the second half of 2017 throttled the team to contention (.870 OPS, 130 wRC+). Falvey and Levine decided to hold back. They didn’t overreact by acquiring a long-term replacement, despite the fan outcry. Instead, the team rolled with a combination of Ehire Adrianza and Gregorio Petit (remember him?) until Polanco could return in July. Sadly, the team took a major step back from a record standpoint. Falvey and Levine finally got to see some action at the trade deadline, but not in the way many Twins’ fans would have hoped for. They traded away popular players such as Eduardo Escobar and Ryan Pressly in an effort to acquire current-day contributors such as Jhoan Duran, Jorge Alcala and Gilberto Celestino . 2019 Once again, the Twins waited out the free agent market, establishing a pattern that they follow to this day. Instead, they focused their attention on locking up their young talent to team-friendly extensions. This included Polanco, Max Kepler and Miguel Sano , who each landed multi-year deals that included team options at the end of the contracts. When the calendar flipped to 2019, they signed veteran power hitter Nelson Cruz to a modest one-year contract with a club option for the 2020 season. Besides that, they once again mostly took a back seat in free agency. Polanco provided excellent value at shortstop and even made his first All Star game appearance as the starter for the American League. However, he started leaking oil from a defensive standpoint in the second half of the season. Perhaps it was due to lingering injuries in his surgically-repaired ankle, but this was when it started to become clear that he probably was not going to be a long-term option at shortstop. 2020 This off-season was defined by one move that they made, and a few notable ones that they held off on. Sure, their noted interest in Zach Wheeler fell short when he signed a five-year, $118 million deal with the Philadelphia Phillies. The club would certainly have had to pay far more to get him in a Twins uniform, but still, that contract looks rather enticing at the moment. Falvey and Levine also chose to hold back on a pursuit of Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel, who were popular names on Twins’ Twitter due to their availability as well as the club’s need for established arms. That decision to focus elsewhere proved to be wise, as Keuchel hit a wall in the second year of his eventual contract, and Kimbrel has been inconsistent. The Twins chose to instead wait and sign third baseman Josh Donaldson when his market didn’t develop as well as he hoped. The team went on to win the division but were once again swept from postseason play. The dagger ends up being a defensive error by Polanco at short, leading the team to fully transition him out of the shortstop position. 2021 The club made it clear that a new starting shortstop is the first item on their off-season shopping list. At one point, it looked like a three-horse race between free agents Andrelton Simmons, Marcus Semien and Didi Gregorius . They chose a one-year deal for Simmons, as not to block the heir apparent, Royce Lewis . Their top prospect, however, tore his ACL and had to sit out for the whole 2021 season, dimming the long-term outlook at the position. Simmons had a terrible season, and his tenure as a Twin is over after one year, just as planned. 2022 The Twins shipped Donaldson to the Yankees in an effort to unload a now-undesirable contract. Meanwhile, Correa remained unsigned coming out of the MLB lockout and the Twins still had an opening at short. In a move that took everyone by surprise, the Twins landed him on essentially a one-year deal with protections in case he gets injured. Once again, they waited out the market and this time the Twins got their biggest prize yet. Later on, Lewis re-tears his ACL in May, and Austin Martin starts getting more time at other positions due to doubts he can handle the shortstop position. The long-term outlook of the position is once again doubtful. At the culmination of the 2022 campaign, Correa opted out of his contract as expected. The Twins are left with a hole at shortstop, but now they have something they’ve worked to create for the better part of six years – financial flexibility. They are not bogged down by the contracts of yesteryear, and their team consists of young talent and older veterans that signed early extensions. Yet again, they wait out the market instead of springing for high-end players such as Dansby Swanson and Xander Bogaerts . When Correa’s deals with the San Francisco Giants and New York Mets fell through, that flexibility and patience led them to this tenure-defining transaction.

“The whole process was crazy but the end game was great,” said Correa on his return. “I'm happy where I'm at right now and I'm excited that I finally get back to work. I know where I'm gonna be for a long time and I can help lead this group of young men to where we want to get from here.” “We knew this could take some time,” added Derek Falvey, Twins President of Baseball Operations. “Carlos is one of the best players in the game and he was going to have a lot of choices. We never lost touch, And Scott was great about keeping in touch with us ultimately, as things changed.” Correa’s reintroduction with the organization came the same day his 6-year, $200 million contract with the team was announced. The deal also includes four years of vesting/team options as well as a full no-trade clause. Correa will be on the Twins through least until 2028, with his final year set to be 2031 if vesting and team options are exercised. “Carlos and Daniella, they gave me a narrow list and Minnesota was always on it,” said Scott Boras, Correa’s agent. “I will say this: that Derek did not let notice go. He was constantly in communication, constantly calling, because I think they knew they're the organization that truly knew the leadership value in addition to the skill and what he [Correa] could mean to a franchise.” New executive chair of the Twins, Joe Pohlad, discussed the addition of Correa and his value to the franchise. “I think it's great for the organization, great for the fans. And hopefully what it reiterates to the fan base is that our commitment to winning, which is always kind of central to how we think about each move, it's gonna make us better.” Correa reiterated this point saying, “The main goal is to win, and by winning I don't mean making the playoffs, I mean winning championships. And I think with the core group that we have, the right guidance, the right work ethic, and the right just atmosphere in the clubhouse, we can we can accomplish those things.” The questions of Correa’s health that held up his deals with the San Francisco Giants and New York Mets were addressed by all parties. “Going into those physicals, there was no concerns on my part. My body feels great. I played throughout the whole season and never felt better. So it was surprising, but that led me here, back to the Twins and I couldn't be more happier,” said Correa. Derek Falvey also addressed the elephant in the room from the Twins side. “As Scott articulated, we feel really good about Carlos is right now. I think the structure of our contract allows you to see how we think about short term, long term with respect to that.” Falvey continued. “I would say that Carlos is ready to go. Chris walked out of the exam yesterday. He said he feels as good as he's ever felt about where he's at with the hands-on physical and otherwise. We've built the structure in a way that manages a little bit of the long-term risk associated with this. But we feel excellent about how he's rolling into 2023.” The bottom line: it was a celebratory atmosphere, from the owner of the Twins, through management, and definitely including Correa himself. Despite the circuitous journey that landed him with Minnesota, he gushed about his return. “Like you said, last year, when I came in, I felt welcomed right away from the get-go. I felt like I was part of a family. So throughout the whole process, to be able to communicate with you guys, talk to all my teammates, communicate through the whole process, talking to [Byron] Buxton almost every day, talking to [Jose] Miranda and all the guys, definitely like you said, my heart was here. So I’m happy we got this done and I want to thank you guys for that.”

On Saturday, the Minnesota Vikings fell behind the Indianapolis Colts, 33-0 at halftime. The team was frankly very bad in all aspects of the game. The defense bent and broke. Special teams allowed a blocked punt and a few long returns. The offense didn't get much going at all, and when they did, it ended in either a fumble, or a wide receiver just stopping a route that led to an interception. It was really, really bad. Twins fans, does this sound familiar? The first half of the Twins offseason has not been good for the Twins or its fans. Let me count the ways: Carlos Correa and Scott Boras did a great job of maximizing his value over the course of the offseason. The Twins felt really good about their chances of signing the All Star shortstop. Last Monday, there were reports that he was starting to tell people he was heading to Minnesota. Then on Tuesday, the Giants offered 13 years and $350 million, and he signed. We can't know everything that went on behind the scenes, of course, but no question the front office had to be disappointed. Many fans are still going through the coping process. Before Correa signed, one fallback plan, Xander Bogaerts, signed with the Padres for 11 years and $180 million. That came a few days after Trea Turner signed an 11 year, $300 million deal. Those contracts, of course, bumped out the value of a Correa contract. It also bumped up the value of the Twins remaining fallback option for an impact shortstop. While the Twins had several conversations over the past week with Dansby Swanson, the former Vanderbilt Commodore and Atlanta Braves star, he ultimately signed this weekend with the Chicago Cubs. While Kyle Farmer is a solid MLB player and shortstop, he probably won't set a lot of tickets. Obviously the Twins weren't going to be involved in negotiations with free agent starting pitchers Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Adam Wainwright, but for whatever reason, they were involved in negotiations with Carlos Rodon and his agent, Scott Boras. As we know, Boras used the contracts of those big deals, specifically the deGrom deal, to request seven years and up to $30 million. While the Twins and Cardinals stayed involved in discussions, the lefty signed with the Yankees for six years and $162 million. And again, while those conversations were happening, the Twins saw the likes of Chris Bassitt signed with the Blue Jays (3 years, $63 million). Others who signed that would have fit the Twins goal of acquiring pitchers that are at least as good as Sonny Gray: Jameson Taillon (Cubs, 4 years, $68 million), Taijuan Walker (Phillies, 4 years, $72 million), Jose Quintana (Mets, 2 years, $26 million), Andrew Heaney (Rangers, 2 years, $25 million), Sean Manaea (Giants, 2 years, $25 million), Zach Eflin (Rays, 3 years, $40 million), Ross Stripling (Giants, 2 years, $24 million), At this time, there is literally one remaining free agent starting pitcher that could be argued would be the Twins top starter. That's Nathan Eovaldi, who throws gas and can be very good, but he hasn't been a beacon of health himself. And to make matters worse for Twins fans, reports have come out over the past couple of weeks that the Twins would certainly consider trading Luis Arraez to acquire pitching. No matter how good the pitcher the Twins got, losing Arraez would be painful for a lot of fan. Another fan favorite, at times, has been Max Kepler, and his name has bounced around in trade rumors. As with Arraez, there may be good reason to look to deal Kepler, but many fans will be greatly disappointed. On Friday afternoon, it was announced that the Twins had a deal with outfielder Joey Gallo for one year and $11 million. As @Nick Nelson noted this weekend, Gallo hit Rock Bottom in 2022 (I know, I know... at least he made contact! <rimshot>) when he hit just .160 between the Yankees and Dodgers. However, in 2021, between the Rangers and Yankees, he hit .199/.351/.458 (.808) with 38 home runs, and that's even after he really struggled over the final two months if New York. Gallo was an All Star in 2019 and 2021. He won Gold Glove Awards in 2020 and 2021. He's one year removed from a very nice season. However, because of a terrible 2022, the low batting average and the massive strikeout count, it isn't a signing that makes many Twins fans happy. And, in an article about Twins options following Correa's signing with the Giants. The Athletic's Dan Hayes mentioned several options for how the Twins offseason could go. One of the ideas was to take a step back by trading some veterans for prospects, essentially throwing the towel on the 2023 season, and hoping to compete again in 2024. While it is unlikely, it certainly isn't something any Twins fan wants to hear. To be fair, the Twins did get their top choice at catcher when Christian Vazquez signed last week to team with Ryan Jeffers. They didn't lose anyone in the MLB Rule 5 draft. They moved from #13 to #5 in the 2023 draft thanks to MLB's first draft lottery. Back to the Vikings... Down 33-0 coming into the second half, the team was incredible and almost inexplicably mounted the biggest comeback in NFL history and won 39-36 in overtime. It was a second Minneapolis Miracle. Kirk Cousins use all of his weapons (Justin Jefferson, KJ Osborn, Adam Thielen, TJ Hockenson, Dalvin Cook) to throw for over 400 yards. The defense actually got aggressive and got pressure on Matt Ryan. They also stopped the run. And sure, a little luck was involved, but that's OK. Huge win, and it clinched the NFC North division title. The Twins offseason is just a little over two months in, and spring training will start in about two more months (and the WBC, if you're into that). This is about halftime of baseball's offseason. Right now, the Twins offseason has been rough. 33-0 rough? I would say more like 31-7 rough, but that's probably just semantics. It has not been good for Twins fans. And as @Melissa Berman wrote last week, it might just be difficult to get fans back into the seats at Target Field if this continues. However, since Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have been in charge of the Twins Baseball Operations group, halftime is often when they really start moving and shaking. We have seen them make deals in late January, throughout February, and even after spring training has started. Whatever we have guessed their budget might be (and this year, it should be somewhere between about $140-$155 million), they have managed to hit that number. They are smart guys. Certainly they had contingency plans for if Carlos Correa signed elsewhere. And certainly Plan B options have been lost too. However, there is time, so don't give up completely on the offseason. Aside from Eovaldi, free agency will likely not be the means to quality acquisition. Instead of just giving up money for players to sign, they will now have to trade players to acquire players. Can they trade for a quality starting pitcher, like Pablo Reyes from the Marlins, or one of the Brewers aces? Speaking of the Brewers, could Willy Adames be available? It's really hard to know which players are available, or how that will change over the course of the coming month or two. (For more on Willy Adames, Corbin Burnes, Christian Yelich, Brandon Woodruff, Gus Varland, William Contreras, and the Brewers, check out Brewer Fanatic.) The Minnesota Twins will need another Minnesota Miracle to turn around what has been a rough offseason so far for the team. In a market that includes teams from all four major professional sports leagues, a soccer team, a Big 10 school (U of Minnesota) and a second Division I college in St. Thomas, dollars can only be spent in so many places. And with half of the market or more unable to watch the Twins on TV, they need to find ways to compete. Ultimately, it will be Winning that brings fans to the stadium. That is always the case. Sure, when a player of the caliber of Carlos Correa signs, some season tickets are sold, but sustained winning is what keeps fans coming back. Whether fans are excited about the offseason, what matters most is what happens on the field in the season.

Since day one of the offseason, the Minnesota Twins made it abundantly clear that priorities one, two and three were bringing back Carlos Correa. With plenty of payroll room to spend, and a pre-existing relationship with Correa, this seemed like the unique situation where the Twins could spend with the big boys and sign a franchise cornerstone for a long time. Unfortunately for the Twins, it was reported late Tuesday night that Correa was signing with the San Francisco Giants for a 13-year, $350M contract. A contract that the Twins weren’t willing to match. According to our friend Dan Hayes, the Twins’ best offer for Correa was a 10-year, $285M offer. While missing out on Correa was a big bummer for everyone, it was also somewhat understandable. The San Francisco Giants play in one of the biggest markets in America and are used to routinely throwing around this kind of money. The issue for the Twins wasn’t missing out on Correa, it was that they put all of their eggs in the Carlos Correa basket. By zeroing in on Carlos Correa and waiting for him to make a decision, they missed out on nearly every other impact free agent. Shortstops like Xander Bogaerts and Trea Turner, impact pitchers like Chris Bassitt and Tyler Anderson, and big bats like Willson Contreras and José Abreu all signed elsewhere while the Twins were waiting on a decision from Correa. By waiting on Carlos Correa the Twins front office needed to be extremely confident in the power of the offer that they held. They needed to be so sure that the amount of money that they were willing to give to the Gold Glover was so great that he couldn’t possibly turn down his former team. Once Dan Hayes’s report came out that the Twins’ maximum offer was $285M, though, it made the front office’s handling of this offseason all the more troubling. $285M was never going to get a deal done for Carlos Correa. In 2021 Francisco Lindor signed for $341M. Being younger and more decorated than Lindor, and with Scott Boras as his agent, there was no way that Correa would be signing for any less than $300M and there was a good chance that he would exceed Lindor’s number. Then when Trea Turner signed for $300M (and being offered $342 by the Padres), that notion was only cemented more. Now that Carlos Correa has made his decision to sign with the Giants, the Twins are staring at a severely depleted free agency market with few impact players remaining. After Dansby Swanson and Carlos Rodón, no other free agents are projected to amass more than three wins above replacement in 2022. Outside of signing one of those two, the Twins can only acquire an impact player via trade. Dealing from a depleted farm system to improve a 78-win team that is worse than that 78-win team was on the last day of the 2022 season doesn't sound smart either. The Twins are now in an incredibly tough situation because of the front offices misreading of the Carlos Correa situation and they have nobody to blame but themselves.

Over the years, and immediately when hired, two words that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine used consistently were “creative” and “collaborative.” The duo know they are operating a mid-market team, and while the Pohlad family has an immense fortune, there’s still a level of business savvy that goes into spending on a baseball team. The goal in hiring Falvey specifically was to create a forward-thinking developmental machine that churned out talent along the lines of his former employer, the Cleveland Guardians. Needing to be more competitive on the pitching front, an area in which considerable money is often spent, developing talent is a surefire way to control spending and advance the roster. A question has presented itself, however. Why are the Twins seemingly less interested in spending money than they are player capital? Just a season ago, owners fought tooth and nail to stifle the earnings of major-league talent. There has never been a point in which minor-league talent was fairly compensated, and despite growing revenues the slices of the pie for players and owners has not been in harmony. One such reason that happens is due to the team control placed on a player for the better part of their most productive seasons as an athlete. Unlike most other professional sports, the way team control works carries a substantial monetary value. It is in that understanding where it seems odd a team like the Twins would be so willing to make deals rather than to open the pocketbook. Spencer Steer is gone. Christian Encarnacion-Strand is gone. Chase Petty is gone. The Twins have taken a good chunk of their top prospects and moved them to acquire big-league talent. There’s nothing wrong with those moves in and of themselves, but they seem equally active in free agency discussions as they do the trade market. Thus far, trades have all but stalled out this offseason. The focus for most front offices has been to pay for talent. Rather than giving away controllable players to the opposition, front offices have spent dollars they will undoubtedly recoup in revenue, and make more as they’ve just used them to acquire an asset. Minnesota should be pushing toward something like a $160 million in Opening Day payroll for 2023, and yet all of the dollars have been held close to their chest. When targeting talents like Carlos Correa, Carlos Rodon, or Christian Vazquez as has been reported, Minnesota has not yet made enough of an offer to generate a Yes. If that is due, in part, because a secondary option is seen as an ok outcome, it’s a gross misuse of the funds available to them. Whether a limit by the Pohlad family is in place or not, there should never be a time in which free agency is seen as a less than desirable avenue. There’s no limit to the amount of money a Major League franchise will continue to be worth. Revenues skyrocket and will surpass $11 billion for Major League Baseball this season. Each team will see over $100 million in their pockets before even selling a ticket this season. That not being used to the fullest capacity, and instead piecing out players that can keep payroll down and develop within a system seems like a misstep. Minnesota’s front office has taken a cautious approach more often than not. Even when Correa was signed, it was only after a player-friendly deal was presented to the team by agent Scott Boras. It’s beyond time that attacking the free agent market with a wad of cash becomes a bigger part of the practice, and at some point, it’d be great to retain more of what’s already in the system for future use.

Derek Falvey’s hiring was largely celebrated through the lens of Cleveland’s pitching pipeline that he helped to develop. The hope was that the Twins could see a similar level of success. Thad Levine was brought along as the general manager. Thus far, we’ve seen a few instances of that but more needs to be done. On the free agent front, we’ve watched the tandem spend to franchise-record payrolls over each of the past two seasons. It’s beyond nice to see Minnesota raising that water level, and for a team that should unquestionably remain near league average, the top has to continue going up. After being around $140 million for 2022, a push to $160 million seems like a reasonable request in 2023. A 17% increase makes sense for a team whose attendance was low in 2022 despite being in first place through most of August. The problem lies in how they get there. Over the past few offseasons, the Twins have preached patience. Falvey and Levine have said all of the right things and then waited out the market. They did so when pivoting to Josh Donaldson after whiffing on Zack Wheeler. They did so in grabbing Lance Lynn and Logan Morrison as spring training kicked off. They even did so last year when shortstop options were gone, and yet Carlos Correa landed in their lap. It now may be time they use the talent to dictate the budget. In waiting for players to agree to their offers, it seems as though the front office is working backwards from an agreed upon amount (as all MLB teams do). This is understandable when ownership likely throws out a number they initially feel comfortable with budgeting. Although Jim Pohlad is no longer the ownership face of the Twins, there will likely not be a substantial financial change with Joe Pohlad in charge. That said, Falvey has always reiterated they have the full support of the front office, and are unafraid to have conversations about spending dollars where it makes sense. That continues to fall on deaf ears when the Twins are left with no opportunities to push the pockets. While Correa and Carlos Rodon are the only premier talents left on the market, Minnesota has a substantial amount of dollars yet to allocate simply to reach last season’s thresholds. By waiting to see if he accepts whatever they have presented, the Twins also are leaving the door open for another team to surpass what may not be their best effort. Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, and Jacob deGrom have all already signed. The likelihood a free agent is waiting to bleed out every last drop isn’t high (although that is what Scott Boras is known for any typically secures for his clients), but rather they are looking to have their match met. If the Twins operated from a place of talent or targets first, getting Correa done with a $35-40 million average annual value over whatever amount of years would then give them the baseline as to what they have left. Instead of waiting for the acceptance of what’s out there, talent worthy of dollars eventually becomes non-existent. Minnesota wouldn’t be well positioned to go sign Correa and Rodon for a combined average annual value of $70 million, but if they did the roster could be filled out from that point. Maybe there’s conversations that follow and requests for additional funds to round out the roster, or a pitch is made that spending could help to increase interest that resulted in an attendance lower than anything we’ve seen since the Metrodome. This is a strategy we have not seen this front office employ. Instead it has been wait and see, and while that worked once in landing a big fish like Correa, it has often left hefty pockets with only leftovers to spend it on. Pushing the budget up from the bottom, rather than subtracting from the top, could help to provide a more clear direction on what way the 26-man is constructed for Rocco Baldelli.

Here we are in the first days of December, and there are some fans who are already wondering if this has been a lost offseason for the Twins. Aside from the standard roster cleanup at the end of the season and the 40-man roster additions, the only moves made have been bringing back minor-league free agents Jair Camargo and Elliot Soto. It is also important to note that the annual Winter Meetings are set up for league meetings, rules meetings, minor-league meetings and more. It is also a place where people will bring their resumes and meet with teams, hoping to get jobs or internships. Those looking for jobs in baseball will be dressed in suits and ties. GMs and media are often seen in business casual, if not shorts and a beach button down shirt. If the season started today… I think that it is always important to know the current status. That way, we are able to look at where the roster stands, and see where there are weaknesses and strengths. This is all stuff that the front office does, though much more in-depth and thoroughly than any of us. But for us, it’s where we’re starting. If the season started today, what would the roster look like? C: Ryan Jeffers 1B: Alex Kirilloff 2B: Jorge Polanco 3B: Jose Miranda SS: Kyle Farmer LF: Trevor Larnach CF: Byron Buxton RF: Max Kepler DH: Luis Arraez More 40-Man Options: Edouard Julien, Gilberto Celestino, Mark Contreras, Matt Wallner, Kyle Garlick, Injured: Royce Lewis. Upper-Level, Non-40-Man Roster: David Banuelos, Jair Camargo, Alex Isola, Chris Williams, Michael Helman. Austin Martin, Brooks Lee, SP: Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle, Bailey Ober RP: Jhoan Duran, Jorge Lopez, Caleb Thielbar, Griffin Jax, Jorge Alcala, Emilio Pagan, Jovani Moran, Trevor Megill. More 40-Man Options: Jordan Balazovic, Blayne Enlow, Brent Headrick, Ronny Henriquez, Cole Sands, Louie Varland, Josh Winder, Simeon Woods Richardson Injured: Chris Paddack, Matt Canterino Upper-Level, Non-40-Man Roster: Evan Sisk, Randy Dobnak,Austin Schulfer, Kody Funderburk, Steven Cruz, Cody Laweryson Roster Needs 1.) Shortstop - Obviously the big talker this week, as it has been the last month or more, is what will happen with Carlos Correa? While the Twins have made offers, Correa is going to have many offers. In my opinion, he’ll get 10 years from someone, and I would guess that he would get a number very close to the $325 million that Corey Seager got just a year ago. The Twins love Correa. Correa clearly enjoyed his time with the Twins and developed some very strong relationships in the Twins organization. It may simply come down to money, and the fact that teams like the Dodgers, Yankees, Padres, Phillies, Braves, and Cubs are other teams looking to sign a shortstop, it will be very hard for the Twins to compete with those teams. Could he be willing to get creative to stay with the Twins? So what is the fallback plan? The Twins were aggressive in bringing in Kyle Farmer. If he’s the Twins opening day shortstop, the Twins will be fine, but that is the proverbial floor that they have set. They clearly want Correa. If they don’t get him, I think they’ll continue their conversations with Scott Boras in hopes of signing Xander Bogaerts. You could argue that dollar-for-dollar, that would be a better investment. Bogaerts is only a year younger than Correa, has had a remarkable career in Boston already, and will likely make $100 million less than Correa. The Twins front office clearly has a strong relationship with the Boras agency, so while odds may be low, it’s OK for Twins fans to have some hope in bringing one of them in. 2.) A top starting pitcher - Forced to fill innings and starts in 2022, the Twins gave opportunities to several young starting pitchers. Joe Ryan was the Opening Day starter, and when Bailey Ober was healthy, he pitched well. With the emergence of Varland, Henriquez, Winder, and Woods Richardson, the need to sign veteran fifth starter options to eat innings should not be there. That is especially true when looking at the eight-figure contracts signed last week by Mike Clevinger and Matthew Boyd. Can the Twins count on their starters being healthy in 2023? While it would surely be nice to assume that Kenta Maeda will return from Tommy John and pitch like he did in 2020, that’s probably not fair. Tyler Mahle made just four starts before his shoulder issues continued, but if he’s healthy, he would likely be their top pitcher. Sonny Gray ended the season in the Injured List with a hamstring issue. Bailey Ober had two long stints on the IL with leg issues. If healthy, this rotation can be pretty solid. Maybe no number one starters, but potentially a couple of solid #2s and a couple more solid #3s. The youngsters can be the as-needed starters, working to improve their readiness in St. Paul. If the Twins can add a true #1 starter, that would be huge. The problem is Jacob de Grom inexplicably got five guaranteed seasons from the Rangers. Justin Verlander will either pitch for Houston again or in New York. The only other ace available in free agency is lefty Carlos Rodon, an injury-risk in his own right. Is that the move? Risks are very high with free-agent pitchers. Between one-third and one-half of the 30 teams in the league will be after the southpaw. How strong a starter could the Twins hope for in free agency? Is the trade route a possibility for the Twins? 3.) Backup catcher - I know, the front office and others have said that they would like to add a catcher to split time with Ryan Jeffers or even be a starter. I’m admittedly a big believer in Jeffers. I don’t see a big problem at all. For me, I much prefer they find a solid left-handed hitting catcher to start maybe 60 games while Jeffers gets the other 100 starts. Willson Contreras would be fun and provide strong offense, but I don’t think they need to spend four years and $80 million on a catcher. Christian Vasquez may get $10-12 million annually over a year or two.Both are right handed. Omar Narvaez makes a lot of sense. To a lesser degree, Tucker Barnhart might make sense. I would be fine with them. Honestly, I’d also be intrigued by the likes of Austin Hedges and Mike Zunino, or Roberto Perez or Kevin Plawecki. Really, once you get past Contreras, there aren’t really many catchers that can hit, so they should grab another strong defensive catcher that is well respected. As I mentioned, I’m a big believer in Jeffers, and that includes his bat. Yes, it would be good to see him hovering around .240 instead of .200, but he has the power to hit 20 or more homers if he gets 100 starts. How many catchers can do that? Other Things to Consider Where should the Twins payroll be? While there aren’t great or exact public records for MLB team’s books, if they are to be in the player preferred 48-52% of revenue, the Twins should probably be somewhere between $150 and $165 million in 2023. Will the Twins be able to trade veteran Max Kepler? Should they? Are there other veterans that could be traded? Maybe even Jorge Polanco? Will the team add some solid veteran relievers? Adding even just one more reliable arm for the late innings would help and provide depth for the unforeseen. Or, could they move some of their intriguing starting pitcher prospects to the bullpen to work in roles where they can pitch 2-4 innings at a time? The Twins tendered a 2023 contract to Emelio Pagan, but they will certainly try to trade him during the offseason. Can they get anything for him? Do the Twins need to add speed to their roster in the offseason to take advantage of some of the new rules coming in 2023? Will the Twins make a Rule 5 draft pick? Could they potentially lose players in the Rule 5 draft? They protected four players - and traded one of them - but there are players that the Twins could lose. To this point, the Twins have added a solid MLB shortstop (and a potentially very nice utility piece) in Kyle Farmer. They have a lot of work to do and a lot of difficult questions to answer. Shortstop will certainly be the focus, but will any of the Big 4 free agent shortstops look to sign this early in the offseason? The Twins should also be looking at high-level starting pitching, and they would be wise to add at least one more reliable reliever. Finally, they need to add a reliable catcher to team with Ryan Jeffers. Of course, the Winter Meetings are often more of a time for rumors and conversations to set things up for the next few weeks. The Twins did already make one move this offseason that we all hope will have a huge impact on the organization. In hiring head athletic trainer Nick Paparest, the hope is that the Twins will be able to avoid the massive amount of lost time due to injuries. If that can happen, it could play a huge role in the Twins success in 2023. Some of this may be answered over the coming days in San Diego, and talks will continue right through spring training. It should be a lot of fun.

Derek Falvey and Thad Levine signed Miguel Sano to a three-year extension worth $30 million right before the 2020 season. Sano was coming off a year as a key contributor to the Bomba Squad. He blasted a career-best 34 homers while playing 105 games. His .923 OPS was easily a career-high, and at 26 years old, he looked the part of a premier power hitter. From that point forward, Sano was basically league-average offensively. In 208 games with the Twins from 2020 on, he slashed .207/.295/.441 with 44 homers. Health was an issue, and there were plenty of periods where it looked unnecessary to have him on a big-league roster at all. The 20 games he played in 2022 accounted for a team-worst -0.9 fWAR, and only 20 players made appearances in the majors last season while being worse. Now a free agent for the first time in his career, a once highly-regarded prospect will see an expected amount of scrutiny on the open market. Not only does Sano need to prove he can still be an asset at the major-league level, but he’ll need to also show he’s healthy and worthy of a presence in a major-league clubhouse. The adoption of the designated hitter in the National League is a welcomed reality, and that gives Sano another 15 teams that realistically could use his services. He’s still relatively young, even if it shouldn’t be expected that he ages well. Sano can handle first base, although he’s a bit below average there. I don’t think any team will get Terry Ryan crazy and put him in the outfield, so his roster flexibility is largely limited. (That said, maybe at this stage in his career, Sano might actually try to become a decent outfielder...) Having been paid through his buyout and having made a decent amount on the extension, it would stand to reason that Sano could probably be had for peanuts. If he’s going to get a guaranteed major-league deal, which seems like somewhat of a longshot, a couple of million bucks should do the trick. He could also very likely be headed toward a minor-league deal with an invite to Spring Training. A team with nothing to lose and low expectations could be a good fit for Sano. Maybe Derek Shelton would welcome him to the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Miami Marlins could be a team to make use of him as a designated hitter, and he’d certainly feel at home in Florida. The Royals and Tigers have taken fliers on worse, but I’d bet they’ve seen enough over the years. Maybe Oakland tried to get something out of him, or the Rockies could be determined that the ball would fly at Coors Field. Seeing him go anywhere with real aspirations seems difficult. This is and never was going to be another David Ortiz scenario, no matter how many times it has been mentioned. Sano is not young, and there isn’t some key to unlocking a superstar. He’s a fine slugger that’s a known commodity, and the upside isn’t immense. It will be weird seeing him in another uniform for 2023, but here’s to hoping he makes the most of it.

Going away from the baseball-shaped Minnesota Twins Baseball Club logo that has been in use since 2010, the Twins are ushering in their 5th rebrand since becoming a franchise in Minnesota for the 1961 season. Having taken over for the Washington Senators, who existed from 1901-1960, Minnesota has developed a rich history of its own. Dubbed the Twins as a nod to the state’s largest cities in Minneapolis and St. Paul, a Minnie & Paul shaking hands logo was used from inception through 1986. Just prior to winning their first of two World Series championships, the franchise went with the Minnesota Twins ball-inspired logo and adopted a new script. It was changed slightly when the franchise opened its doors at Target Field, and has remained unchanged since. The franchise is one rooted in its past, and that is evident with images of the previous logos spread throughout Target Field. Minnie & Paul have been and will remain, a fixture in centerfield at the gorgeous downtown stadium. As a new scoreboard and video boards are installed this offseason, an overhaul of the new insignia and branding will be present. On Friday, Minnesota unveiled their home, away, and alternate uniforms for the 2023 Major League Baseball season. A fourth uniform, their Nike City Connect offering, will also be worn and unveiled at a different time. The new uniforms feature a more rich and bold color design. Gone is the vibrant red, and no longer are there hints of the highly-controversial Kasota Gold. The navy blue uniforms feature a block lettering similar to that seen on the downtown neighbor Minnesota Timberwolves uniforms. Slight tweaks to the traditional Twins script have been made, and the interlocking “TC” logo has also been altered ever so slightly. The "Twin Cities" moniker appears on the cream colorway, and is the first time it has been used on a uniform. It’s hard to define these new uniforms as much more than a minimalist design. It’s a simplistic look that looks very clean in the white, and the blue offers a much more bold take. Piping on the pants is present. It remains to be seen who these uniforms will appeal to most. They aren’t as progressive as futuristic fans may like, but they also aren’t the throwbacks that a more traditional fan may desire either. It seems like a good middle ground, and a defining word may be little more than “safe.” For the players, pitcher Joe Ryan was a big fan of the red alternates as was Jorge Polanco. Ryan is a fan of the navy tops, while Polanco and Luis Arraez both love the grey pinstripe look. Bryon Buxton was last on the stage, but is a big fan that the club has brought back a cream alternate. Immediately following the unveiling, the Twins made merchandise exclusively available to purchase at the Mall of America. The team store at Target Field will have the collection available to purchase in the coming days. It will be on both Thad Levine and Derek Falvey to make sure the new digs are stocked with fresh talent for the 2023 season. If you'd like to watch the unveiling of the uniforms and seeing the uniforms modeled by Jose Miranda, Luis Arraez, Joe Ryan, Jorge Polanco, and Byron Buxton (and some other Twins attire modeled by some Twins employees, Elvis Martinez and even Lindsey Buxton), check out the Twins Daily Instagram Live link below. Share your thoughts below. What are your impressions? Do you like the new uniforms?

Having lost their top two starters to a deadline sell-off trade and Tommy John surgery, the Twins headed into last offseason with a barren rotation outlook. It was unclear exactly how Derek Falvey and Thad Levine would realistically be able to offset these big losses. Yes, they had money to spend. But the next premier frontline starting pitcher to choose Minnesota in free agency would be the first. Some creativity was gonna be needed to field a contending staff, and Levine hinted as much early on. The general manager's quotes led me to write a column around this time last year: Are the Twins About to Build a Radically Unconventional Pitching Staff? “I think with the challenge comes opportunity,” Levine had said. “We’re going to be as creative as we can be in terms of not being necessarily hemmed into the notion of it has to look exactly the way it has always looked. We may end up looking at this from the lens of how many multi-inning guys can we add to a staff and how far does that take us?” The Twins followed through on their foreshadowing ... to an extent. With their only stable veteran workhorses – José Berríos, Kenta Maeda, and Michael Pineda – out of the picture for 2022, the team didn't acquire proven inning-eaters to replace them. Instead, their pickups were Sonny Gray, Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer and Chris Paddack, none of whom had thrown even 140 innings the prior season. Meanwhile, the only rotation incumbents were Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, who had thrown a collective 120 innings in the big leagues. The front office assembled a staff full of pretty good pitchers who were – almost uniformly – unequipped to provide any length, and so we saw Levine's vision more or less come to life: vast numbers of different arms rotating in and out to cobble together nine-inning games. The Twins used a franchise-record 38 different pitchers. Their starters averaged 4.8 innings, second-fewest in the American League. They used six or more different pitchers in a game 31 times. Radically unconventional indeed. And, had this approach been successful, you wouldn't hear me complaining. But clearly it was not. The Twins ranked 19th in ERA, 19th in FIP, 20th in fWAR. Even for a club that was built around the strength of its lineup, that's not nearly good enough. The plan, at its core, was not a terrible one: maximize the stuff of your pitchers in shorter stints, shield them from multiple trips through the order, and possibly reduce injuries from overuse. Alas, none of those supposed benefits came to fruition. So what went wrong, and what can we learn? Was the entire philosophy bunk, or was the execution botched? I would argue, probably more of the latter. There might be some merit to the concept, provided the Twins heed these lessons learned: The starters weren't good enough, or healthy enough, even in shortened starts. I don't dislike the idea of signing a cheap pitcher – who doesn't have the repertoire or durability to go deep – for the back of your rotation and unleashing him in highly effective 4-5 inning bursts. The problem is that this group lacked the capacity to be highly effective even with this usage. Bundy held his own the first time through the lineup, then got mashed the second time through (.291/.327/.534), often making the third time a moot point. Archer posted an 85 ERA+ despite almost never pitching past the fourth. He placed a heavy weight on the bullpen every fifth day, and rarely left them in a good spot. Meanwhile, the cautious management wasn't enough to prevent Ober, who only once threw even 90 pitches in a start, from being derailed by a season-ruining groin injury. It wasn't enough to prevent Gray, who grumbled about Rocco Baldelli's early hooks, from multiple significant hamstring injuries. If the Twins want an approach like this to pay dividends, they need to find pitchers who are actually capable of excelling in shorter starts (a la Andrew Heaney) and they need to better help their players physically adapt to the altered routines. You've got to have at least one starter who can be the workhorse. Even with all of the above being addressed, I still think you've got to have at least one starting pitcher in your rotation who you can count on to give you some length. This strategy built around five-and-flies, piggybacking and the like becomes a lot more palatable when there is a fixture like Berríos routinely firing 6-7 innings each time through the rotation. That likely contributed to the decision to acquire Tyler Mahle at the deadline. He threw 180 innings in 2021 (would've led the Twins by 60), and had completed six or more frames in eight of nine starts for the Reds leading up the trade. Of course, Mahle proved to be the opposite of a remedy for Minnesota, and now only adds to the uncertainty of a 2023 rotation in desperate need of stable and dependable durability. Their bullpen wasn't built adequately to handle the burden. This is what really gets me. Levine talked about "looking at this from the lens of how many multi-inning guys can we add to a staff," and then their only bullpen addition of the offseason was Joe Smith, who could barely be counted on for one inning. The Twins rarely carried anything resembling a long man on the staff, and would typically just march out endless one-inning relievers after short starts. This led to them frequently burning through all of their high-leverage arms on one night and burning out the back end of their bullpen for the next. To make a system like this work, you've got to have an array of arms capable of getting more than three outs on a regular basis. The routine of four-inning starts followed by 5-6 relievers is not a workable formula as we saw. Losing your pitching coach mid-season doesn't help. This one can't so much be blamed on the front office and their planning. It's difficult to anticipate such a disruptive event in the heart of your season, and Wes Johnson's abrupt departure made matters tougher as the Twins tried to hold together their experimental pitching staff through the second half. Pete Maki undoubtedly played a significant role in architecting this year's plan, and now, as the apparent choice going forward at pitching coach, he'll be able to more directly pull the strings and execute to his preferences. So, to summarize... The model of building a pitching staff with reduced emphasis on traditional 6-7 inning starters isn't bad in theory. Indeed, there's plenty of evidence that it is the inexorable direction of baseball at large. But if the Twins want to lean into this movement as they did in 2022, they need to get better at. That means: Filling the rotation with starters who can at least stay healthy and excel in 4-5 inning starts. Finding at least one workhorse type starter who can reliably give you 6+ innings each turn. Equipping the bullpen with enough firepower and multi-inning relievers to shoulder the load. Having one central mastermind oversee the operation (and if it's not working, find someone new). As you're looking through the options available in our bullpen chapter of the Offseason Handbook, these are lessons worth keeping in mind.

Only the Los Angeles Dodgers and Houston Astros won more games than the 101 victories recorded by the New York Mets this season. By fWAR, the Mets starters compiled the fifth-highest total across baseball. Their 3.61 ERA was also fifth while the 9.4 K/9 topped all of baseball. Facing plenty of change in 2023, Jacob deGrom is able to opt out of the final two years of his contract, and he could be joined by both Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker. To be fair, deGrom doesn’t seem like the type of pitcher Minnesota will target. He’s a true ace, that will get something over $35 million per year on a multi-year deal despite being 34 years old. The two-time Cy Young winner has not been healthy either of the past two seasons and spending big on an aging question mark doesn’t seem up the Twins' alley. It’s also fair to note that the likelihood of interest from the career Mets pitcher will probably be non-existent. The alternatives could certainly provide a bit more promise, however. Chris Bassitt will be 34 next season and has flown under the radar as one of baseball’s best pitchers since 2018. Drafted by the White Sox way back in 2011, Bassitt announced his presence in a limited 2015, before missing 2017 due to injury. Since 2018, Bassitt has posted a 3.29 ERA across nearly 600 innings. He gets punch outs, he avoids walks, and he keeps the ball in the yard. Individual accolades haven’t added up for Bassitt, with just a single All-Star appearance and twice generating Cy Young votes, but he’s been as consistent as they come. Health could be a concern, but Bassitt has largely remained available since returning to the mound in 2018. With a $19 million mutual option, he’ll obviously turn that down with the qualifying offer being north of that for 2023. Draft pick compensation could stymie his market some, but he shouldn’t have trouble finding a two-to-four-year deal making something north of $20 million in each of them. Walker is interesting in that he should be affordable, which benefits the Twins, but his addition may not raise the bar all that much. I’m not sure Derek Falvey or Thad Levine would be able to sell Walker surpassing the bar of Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray, or Kenta Maeda. A former top prospect, he’s been solid when healthy, but rarely that, and never great. Since 2018 Walker has pitched for four organizations and even with a 3.78 ERA, he hasn’t topped 400 total innings and his 4.16 FIP is more reflective of his effectiveness. Walker at his best is lightyears ahead of either Dylan Bundy or Chris Archer, but at his worst, or even what could be projected, he may not represent much more than either of them at their best for the Twins in 2022. The trio of former Mets definitely represent options for Minnesota to consider, and they range in desirability and likelihood. There should probably only be a single option to pursue here, but it remains to be seen how the front office will act. Do you have any interest in adding any of these pitchers from the Mets?

Going into 2021, manager Rocco Baldelli was strapped with ineffective veterans Matt Shoemaker and J.A. Happ. The latter posted mediocre numbers with the New York Yankees in a truncated 2020, and hadn’t truly been good since 2018. The former wouldn’t know a clean bill of health if a doctor prescribed it, and while decent when healthy, was nothing short of a trainwreck for the Twins. In total, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine’s constructed roster saw a record 35 pitchers brought to the mound. Short starts were a constant due to ineffectiveness, and team mascot Willians Astudillo made four different appearances on the bump. Fast forward to free agency 2022 and Dylan Bundy was the first acquisition made by Minnesota. Bundy’s lone good season came during the 2020 debacle, and despite being a former 4th overall pick, he’s never looked the part of a legit starting arm. It was a fine back-of-the-rotation edition, but ultimately he made 29 starts and far too often in big spots. Doubling down on more of the same, the Twins opted for Chris Archer who had recently had Thoracic Outlet surgery and repaired a hip labrum. His 19 1/3 innings dating back to 2019 should’ve never had him beginning 2022 in anyone’s starting rotation. Falvey told reporters recently Minnesota wanted to ease him along, but things never got better. The Twins President of Baseball Operations said, “Our hope was that if we started a little slow with him … to be able to unleash that a little more through the course of the year,” Falvey said. “And we were just never able to get there. Then when we had other injuries, as a result of the other guys going down … we then ultimately had to continue to lean on Chris at that stage to make those starts.” Despite using a club record 38 pitchers in 2022, again because of poor performances both in the rotation and bullpen, a positive caveat was discovered depth. Louie Varland followed up a 2021 Minor League Pitcher of the Year award by making it to the big leagues and grabbing his first game on the final day of the season. Simeon Woods Richardson, a piece acquired with Austin Martin from the Blue Jays when Minnesota sent out Jose Berrios, also took a turn in the majors. Add in the continued growth for Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Josh Winder and you’ve got a solid set of depth starters. We won’t see Devin Smeltzer back in the organization next season as he opted to pursue opportunities elsewhere, but Cole Sands could continue to develop. There’s hope that Jordan Balazovic will return to form, and another big jump from Marco Raya, David Festa, or Blayne Enlow could put them in the conversation as well. In short, there are plenty of options to fill out the group. That puts pressure on Falvey and Levine to adequately allocate pitching funds this offseason. Whether on the open market or in trade, the time to bargain shop has come and gone. Kenta Maeda, Sonny Gray, and Tyler Mahle are all capable top-half rotation pieces. Chris Paddack could be that too, assuming he comes back well mid-summer. No one else brought in can even flirt with the notion of slotting in behind that group. Aces are few and far between in baseball. Rarely do they hit the open market, and it’s always a bit of a dice roll as to which will thrive in a new situation. Minnesota isn’t an ideal market, but money talks and it’s time for the front office to speak with it. Another throw-in starter being signed to anything but a camp invite deal should be cause for significant ire. It’s time to add big or stop asking to be taken seriously.

Earlier this week the Twins announced that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine had opted to keep the entirety of their coaching staff intact. Head trainer Michael Salazar was relieved of his duties, but Rocco Baldelli, Tommy Watkins, Jayce Tingler, Pete Maki, David Popkins, and the rest of the field staff were set to return. Maybe that’s shocking, but then again, maybe it shouldn’t be. Talking with a source in the Twins front office, there was a conversation less than two weeks ago that Minnesota had decided to move on from at least two individuals that have since been retained. That shift may have even surprised some within the organization, but if the front office has shown anything since their hiring, maybe we should have seen it coming. Falvey and Levine have always operated to the beat of their own drum, and they’ve been extremely process oriented. For the sake of organizational change, this line of thinking seems imperative. The tandem was handed Paul Molitor as their manager following the firing of Terry Ryan, and despite a Manager of the Year award that kept him around a bit longer, it never seemed like the sides' intentions were married. Minnesota’s front office has relied heavily on forward-thinking and process being able to drive results. The nature of that reality means having a coaching staff that can disseminate ideas and generates buy-in from players on the field. Former Twins reliever Ryan Pressly noted something along these lines when he touched on how the Houston Astros helped him to turn a corner. It’s in that reasoning that someone like pitching coach Pete Maki would be retained. The front office continues to invest heavily in pitching development. Encouraging signs from expected talents such as Josh Winder and Simeon Woods Richardson are necessary, but it’s the breakthroughs from the likes of Louie Varland, Bailey Ober, David Festa, and many others that should have fans believing that the system works. Wes Johnson was supposed to orchestrate it at the highest level but left for a payday too good to pass up from Louisiana State University. Maki was someone the Twins plucked from the college ranks as well, and although he may have been thrust into a situation sooner than anticipated, he’s been able to connect with his subjects. Maybe Minnesota could’ve made Popkins the fall guy for a terrible amount of run production with runners in scoring position, and maybe Watkins should’ve been held a bit more accountable on some egregious sends. Still, both have a substantial history in the game and have been able to generate production with this team. On the bench, Tingler brings previous managerial experience and has a wealth of knowledge to impart to a clubhouse he can certainly resonate with. As a whole, there’s more benefit for Falvey and Levine sticking with their guys than not. Salazar was in charge for two previous seasons of relative health, and although 2022 was disastrous, it’s hardly fair to suggest some level of substantial onus being on his plate. At the end of the day, this has always been publicly made about injuries, and therefore that’s the path of least resistance. Moving forward, Falvey and Levine must show they got it right. That starts with a reversal of production in 2023. The coaching staff can only do what the on-field talent gives them. Minnesota’s front office will again need to supplement a core that should compete, but advancing themselves along the edges is the goal of this team, and if there was a belief in those at the helm entering the season, it seems that remains for 2023 as well.

There’s no denying that Minnesota Twins fans spoke with their wallets this season. Minnesota saw its lowest attendance total since 2001, and not even a now 12-year-old-Target-Field could save them from that fate. Following an 89-loss campaign in 2021, the Twins may have come in right around projection totals, but it’s hard not to see why fans wanted more. Plenty went wrong for the 2021 Minnesota Twins, but after sending Josh Donaldson to New York and spending big on Carlos Correa, it looked like this team could compete in a division where the White Sox and Guardians were their lone competition. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine made a pitching addition in the form of Sonny Gray, but the signings of Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer should’ve never been expected to move the needle too much. Having been hired prior to the 2017 season, fans are wanting better results from a front office that, at times, has been too cute. Although Terry Ryan and Bill Smith also wore out their welcomes, loud voices are now ringing to a tune of 2023 being a critical juncture for the duo. How the pair can be brought back into the good graces of fans likely is a multi-faceted question. Strike Strong this Winter It’s hardly fair to ever expect any plan to be rigid when it comes to sports. Having alternatives for when options change is a must. Minnesota displayed that last season when they initially targeted Isiah Kiner-Falefa as their shortstop until the opportunity to dump Donaldson with Correa falling in their lap became a possibility. That said, the Twins targeted Bundy as their first signing of the offseason. Only Joe Smith and a handful of waiver claims were their answer in the bullpen. Establishing themselves with more certain options that present a much higher ceiling is a must. Minnesota used a team-record 38 pitchers this season. Plenty of the starters are young and should be expected to provide results of the pitching pipeline Falvey was brought in to create. Josh Winder, Bailey Ober, Louie Varland, Joe Ryan, and Simeon Woods Richardson are all nice pieces to round out a rotation. That should be the back half though. Kenta Maeda returns, Tyler Mahle will hopefully be healthy, Gray option should be picked up, and Chris Paddack will be here at some point late in the year. There’s no reason to add middling options to that group. Another #1 or #2 arm has to be the focus if you want a rotation taken seriously. The bullpen is in better shape assuming Jorge Alcala and Cody Stashak can be healthy. Matt Canterino won’t be an option for a while, and although Jhoan Duran has emerged alongside Griffin Jax as success stories, they need help. Supplementing short starts with elite relievers is a route you can go, but half in on both is something we’ve seen fail. Find a Shortstop There’s no reason why the Twins can’t pay Correa, and there’s arguably less of one why they shouldn’t. That said, he’s going to command a boatload, and it’s probably fool’s gold to suggest he’ll get top dollar here. However, if Minnesota can make a strong offer, then a city he seems to enjoy may become more enticing. If it’s not Correa, going half-in on a team that needs leadership and the ability to sustain winning simply won’t work. Brooks Lee would be a longshot for Opening Day, and Noah Miller can’t hit yet even though he's great in the field. Royce Lewis won’t be back until mid-summer at the earliest, and what he looks like at that point remains to be seen. This isn’t another Kiner-Falefa or Jose Iglesias scenario. Maybe the Twins shy away from going for a long-term deal that locks down the position (although it’s been a revolving door for years) but paying handsomely for a position that will quarterback a poor defensive infield is a must. Be Open to Change Arguably the largest detractor for a good portion of Minnesota’s fanbase when it comes to the front office is their reliance on analytics. While data is an incredibly powerful tool when driving decisions, being so rooted in it as a finality has seemingly dug some graves. Emilio Pagan was terrible and sank the Twins early this year. He’s shown a better ability once coming around to making changes, but Minnesota stuck with him because of stuff that could be exploited if it ever started to work out. There were also data-driven decisions behind the acquisition of Bundy, Archer, and Smith, thinking the brain trust and what they employ could unlock a higher level of performance that never showed itself. Being willing to cut ties, or change direction when something isn’t working hasn’t been evident on a quicker timeline. The Twins were dreadful with runners in scoring position this season, and while the lineup wasn’t built to bash the longball like that of the Bomba Squad, little was done schematically to change run production opportunities on the fly. Spend…Again We saw the highest payroll in franchise history during 2022 when Minnesota dropped roughly $140 million on this club. Whether Correa returns or not, there’s going to be a ton of money to spend. While revenues will obviously have taken a hit following a lacking attendance and likely slowed renewal of season tickets, paying for premium talent is a must. Falvey and Levine have cultivated a core of players such as Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Ryan, and many others. With their salaries all stymied through the arbitration process, it’s that group that should be supplemented by this regime to prove the youth is here and believed to be ready to compete. What else do you need to see from the Twins front office to dive back in? If you’re out, where did they lose you? What have you appreciated most?

Rocco Baldelli took over as manager for the Minnesota Twins prior to the 2019 season. He replaced Hall of Fame player, Paul Molitor. Although Molitor was seen favorably in his time on the field, he was more of a figurehead manager, celebrated for his own accolades, than those accomplished from the dugout. Molitor seemed to be on the hot seat following a 103-loss campaign in 2016, but the 85-win season brought him Manager of the Year honors and spared him another season under Derek Falvey and Thad Levine. Wanting to bring in their own manager and distance themselves from the Terry Ryan regime, Falvey and Levine cast a wide net and ultimately landed on Baldelli. A former top prospect with a solid career, this is Baldelli’s first managing gig. He came highly respected from the forward-thinking, and analytically driven, Tampa Bay Rays organization. In year one (2019), Baldelli was praised mightily as he orchestrated one of the most successful regular seasons in franchise history. The Bomba Squad invigorated the fanbase, and a club led by Nelson Cruz launched the most home runs by any team over a single season in Major League Baseball history. 2020 is hard to quantify given the truncated nature of the pandemic-influenced season, and we know how the past two years have gone. After what can be categorized as a wildly successful beginning, Baldelli’s allure with fans has hit the skids. Is that largely due to a reflection of what his team has done lately, more of a response to what he’s brought to the table as a whole, or something in between? If there are two chief complaints for the Twins manager, I’d likely boil them down to pitching management and lack of ultimate success. Pitching Management The first relates directly to starting pitchers and bullpen usage. Over the course of recent seasons, it’s become a major complaint from the fanbase that Baldelli pulls his starters too soon. To date in 2022, the Twins 4.8 innings per start is tied for 28th across Major League Baseball. That average is higher than only the Washington Nationals and Tampa Bay Rays. That’s notable as the former is doing so by circumstance, while the latter is doing so by choice. The league average innings per start is 5.2, which is just above Minnesota’s tally. As discussed earlier this year, short starts aren’t simply a Twins thing, and they really aren’t a Baldelli thing either. Baseball has trended toward pulling pitchers earlier as hitters have become so much more advanced, and there are so few truly elite arms. A team like Tampa Bay has supplemented that reality with strong tactics and bullpen help, while the teams who rely most on their starters such as the Astros, Guardians, and Phillies have arms like Justin Verlander, Shane Bieber, and Aaron Nola. Across baseball in 2022, there was an average of 32.2 pitchers used in 2023. That’s the second highest number in the history of the sport, trailing only the 34.4 used last season. What has to happen for Baldelli to allow starters a longer leash is two-fold. Minnesota must produce more runs than they did in 2022, and the starting pitchers have to be better. Expecting the likes of Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy to give five or more innings on a routine basis isn’t logical. While Baldelli has a say in player acquisition, he’s also at the mercy of the team provided to him. Implore the front office to better when it comes to acquisitions on the front end (or the bullpen if following the Rays model) and the results should follow. Win When it Counts While it’s not the fault of this current Twins club that the franchise totes an 0-18 record in the postseason currently, it is at the forefront of fans’ minds. The reality is that no matter how many division titles the Twins have won, and they’ve gone .500 in that regard under Baldelli, they’ve also bowed out without even a playoff victory while he’s been in charge. It’s certainly not easy to win in October, especially if you’re getting paired up against a juggernaut like New York or Houston. However, there’s no reason why a team winning 101 games should bow out with a whimper, or why you can’t grab a victory at home in a short series. Twins fans want to see the regular season translate into playoff success. With 30 teams, and only one winning their final tilt, it’s hard to suggest World Series or bust as an expectation, but doing something of note beyond the 162-game calendar would go a long way. Knowing 2023 is an integral point for Minnesota and Baldelli, what are you hoping for in a change of pace? If you support what Rocco has brought to the table, why? If you need to see better, what could change your opinion?

The Twins are finishing a terrible September that saw the team go from contender to pretender in a few weeks. There are plenty of reasons for fans to be frustrated, but the season's conclusion offers time to reflect on the 2022 campaign. Here are the people most responsible for the Twins' downfall this season. Culprit 1: The Front Office The front office will take the brunt of the blame for any team that falls short of its ultimate goal. Last off-season was unique because of the lockout, and Minnesota took a unique approach to construct the roster. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine thought the pitching pipeline was ready to contribute in 2022, so the team didn't need to acquire any of the best free agent pitchers. This plan failed as the team's farm system took a step back, and the pitching pipeline has yet to arrive. It's also easy to blame the front office for some of the prominent players the team acquired during the 2022 season. Minnesota traded Taylor Rogers shortly before Opening Day for Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan. The timing of the trade was terrible, even if Rogers ended up having a poor season. Paddack was terrific for four games before needing Tommy John surgery. Pagan has been one of baseball's worst relievers for multiple seasons, and the team continued to use him in high-leverage situations. Minnesota's front office received praise following July's trade deadline because it seemed like the team was "going for it." Neither of the other AL Central teams made significant moves, and the Twins acquired Tyler Mahle, Jorge Lopez, and Michael Fulmer. Mahle has struggled with a shoulder injury since being acquired, and Lopez hasn't lived up to his All-Star performance from the first half. Mahle's acquisition might be the most frustrating as he added his name to a growing list of injured pitchers the Twins acquired via trade. In the end, the front office was wrong about the organization's young pitchers being ready to contribute. Falvey and Levine didn't address the bullpen in the offseason, which haunted the team. It cost the team multiple prospects at the trade deadline after the club had already been treading water for most of June and July. Now, the front office is facing a critical offseason as this current group's winning window is closing. Culprit 2: Rocco Baldelli Minnesota's front office gave Baldelli a vote of confidence over the weekend when they said he is part of the team's long-term plans. Fans may still blame the manager for the team's poor performance for multiple months. Obviously, he has been dealing with one of baseball's most injured rosters, but the team doesn't seem to have much fight left in them. Last season, the team was out of the race for much of the season, but the club played well in September as younger players got an opportunity. This year's team played its worst baseball in September. Sometimes it's easy to forget that preseason models projected this team to finish around .500. Pitching staff usage is one of the most significant areas where fans blame a manager. Many will point fingers at Baldelli for his bullpen usage or for pulling his starters too early. However, it is also essential to consider that the team lost its pitching coach in the middle of the season. Minnesota's bullpen was terrible, and there is only so much Baldelli can do with the players on the roster. Also, Twins starters were rarely allowed to face a line-up for the third time, a philosophy many organizations have adopted in recent years. Baldelli deserves some blame, but even baseball's best manager wouldn't have won with Minnesota this season. Culprit 3: Injuries It's easy for anyone looking at the Twins' 2022 season to blame injuries for the team's poor performance. No American League team has put more players on the IL than the Twins this season. At one point, Minnesota had nearly a full roster of players on the IL, and it was a team that could be reasonably competitive in the AL Central. The Reds are the only club with more days lost to injury than the Twins, but anyone following the team knows that number doesn't tell the whole story. Minnesota allowed many players to stay off the IL even when injuries hampered their performance. Bryon Buxton talked his way out of multiple IL stints, and there were stretches where he struggled on the field. Jorge Polanco tried to play through an injury, Tyler Mahle made two starts at less than 100%, and Max Kepler played through a broken toe. Few organizations have the depth to withstand the number of injuries the Twins suffered in 2022. Reflecting on a season that started with renewed expectations can be challenging. However, there is plenty of blame to go around as the season winds to a close. Who deserves the most blame for the Twins' failures in 2022? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

Derek Falvey and Thad Levine took over the Minnesota Twins front office six seasons ago. 2023 will be year seven. In that timeframe the club has been to the postseason three times while winning two AL Central division titles. There’s certainly some success there, but ultimately it comes with an 0-6 record in the postseason, which has accounted for one-third of the 0-18 futility during October. There’s only a partial pass for the Twins to be had in 2022. The injuries were significant. 37 pitchers have been used for the first time in franchise history. Byron Buxton played injured from the jump, and time was missed by Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Max Kepler, and Jorge Polanco. All those things are fair to suggest that plenty has been working against Rocco Baldelli and his bosses. It’s also time to realize there’s no more room for error or excuses. It’s safe to say that the front office, and the manager, aren’t looking for a pass. Both those in the clubhouse and those employing it are looking for a way to create a sustainable winner for the future. Falvey was brought in to develop a pitching pipeline similar to that of Cleveland. Levine is a smart general manager who has made some shrewd moves. Baldelli can run a clubhouse and has orchestrated difficult decisions. For all the good each party has done, the results now have to follow. In year seven the Twins won’t, and shouldn’t be given the benefit of doubt. 2022 saw a franchise-high payroll that included the signing of superstar shortstop Carlos Correa. He fell into Minnesota’s lap and is likely gone over the offseason. It will be on the front office to appropriately name his replacement, and find ways to use that money. Plenty of the roster is penciled but almost all of it carries some level of uncertainty as to availability or expectation. There’s no more room for acquisitions like Dylan Bundy or Chris Archer. Every offseason addition has to be made under the premise of creating the best roster possible, with nothing added just to fill the fringes. Management can’t dictate any more reclamation projects to play a substantial role, and when something doesn’t work similar to Emilio Pagan this season, the plug has to be pulled. It’s more than fair to understand those running the Twins are an incredibly smart group with very good ideas. Both rooted in analytical outcomes and results based decision making, there’s probably never been a better group across the board. Ultimately though, the only thing that matters is the wins and losses, and they haven’t had enough of them. Over the winter the front office and coaching staff will need to find ways to improve internally. That will mean staffers being replaced, coaches being changed out, and developmental areas being addressed. This should be the last go-round for the collective as a whole, and there’s no excuse to forgo bringing in fresh faces to help reach the ultimate goal. There’s plenty of argument to be made that 2022 was never seen as the year to go “all in.” The trade deadline was navigated with a focus on the now, but a vision to the future as well. Fast forwarding to Opening Day 2023 and the future becomes now, with no more room for missteps. It’s time to come through on the vision, or change it entirely.

After limping through the last impactful series of the season against the Cleveland Guardians over the weekend, Minnesota’s postseason hopes were all but cooked. Having led the division for a vast majority of the season, injuries mounted and ultimately ruined any potential to hang on. That’s not to say injuries were the defining factor in falling short, Minnesota contributed to that plenty on their own as well. Relatively early on in the year, it was apparent that the AL Central was going to fade behind the competition. Chicago’s ineptitude was injury-related as well, but they were also horribly managed by Tony La Russa, and consistently played bad baseball defensively. Cleveland has a great manager in Terry Francona, and as expected, their pitching kept them in it while young players got their feet wet. Minnesota’s place in all of that got shuffled early after a strong May, but it shouldn’t be lost that no one seemed to want to win this division down the stretch. Therein lies the definition of the 2022 Minnesota Twins season: A failure to capitalize. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine didn’t throw all of Jim Pohlad’s resources at the 2022 season to suggest it was World Series or bust. Nothing about a bullpen addition of only Joe Smith said, “We’re all in.” However, what was done should’ve been enough and at every juncture, the Twins came up short. When the trade deadline came around and there was an opportunity to improve a winning ball club, the front office added a top-level starter in Tyler Mahle. They addressed the bullpen by bringing in Michael Fulmer and Jorge Lopez. Then, as it had all season long, it quickly was wiped out on and off the field. Every team has injuries, but very few had as many and those as impactful as the Twins. Byron Buxton played hurt from the jump. Pitching was constantly in flux. Alex Kirilloff never got better. They won through them, for a time. When Minnesota would create their own fortunes, generating base runners and putting guys in scoring position, they consistently failed to capitalize. Baserunning was bad, defense equally so. All season long the Twins found themselves with the opportunity to control their own destiny, run away and hide with the division, and create noise. Instead, they responded with more trips to the injured list, poor situational hitting, and an overall lack of execution. If we were to reflect on the season as a whole, taking a bit of a step back from the emotions down the stretch, maybe we should've seen this coming. After all, a .500 record was largely what was projected from the get-go. For a good portion of the season, all this team amounted to a .500 ballclub. Ultimately though, after creating their own good fortune, a wilting happened and nothing was done to substantiate it. There’s certainly a handful of different ways to get where Minnesota finished, but as The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman put it, the Twins took the least enjoyable way to get there. Good teams capitalize on their opportunities, and although this one was masked as a good team for a while, they simply never capitalized on what was in front of them.

Were the Twins to go the way of many teams and begin a long rebuild to return to contention? "I'm not using that word," Derek Falvey told the beat writers. Instead, 2022 would be a year for a reload. But what does a successful reload look like? The Twins set out to return to playoff contention as they had in 2019 and 2020. Doing so would require more money and trades than the team had done in previous years of Pohlad ownership. Teams often reload for playoff contention for several reasons but usually require a strong central core and only a few critical holes to fill. For the 2016 Red Sox, their last year with Hall of Famer David Ortiz and an ascending Mookie Betts, it meant grabbing David Price on a $217 million deal and Craig Kimbrel in a trade with San Diego. The team went from last to first in the division for the next three years, including a World Series ring in 2018. However, a better comparison for teams with smaller payrolls might be those 2005 White Sox. Their opening day lineup only featured three of the same faces from 2004, but none were rookies. Instead, Ozzie Guillén and Kenny Williams tried to rethink what kind of players to build around their core, grabbing AJ Pierzynski, Jermaine Dye, Tadahito Iguchi, and Scott Podsednik. Most of their core pitching returned, with Yankees pitcher Orlando Hernández filling in as their fifth man. Their salary ballooned from $65 million to $75 million, while the first-place Twins remained essentially static in the $50 million range. Of course, it was all worth it: the White Sox were an era-defining team, winning the division by six games, going on one of the all-time great post-season runs, and ending an 88-year-old championship drought. For the Twins going into 2022, there was enough in the revolver for one last go of a core set of players: Jorge Polanco, Byron Buxton, Josh Donaldson, Luis Arraez, Mitch Garver, and Miguel Sano, plus some promise with Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Trevor Larnach, and Alex Kirilloff to step up (not to mention the many hopes around the arrival of Royce Lewis). Their bullpen had enough interesting names to build around. So why didn't the Twins work? First, the Twins had too many holes to fill, particularly in the starting pitching realm. Ober and Ryan had less than 100 innings under their belts, and Kenta Maeda was merely a glimmer of promise for a late-season comeback. The Twins needed a Day One starter, but quickly missed names like Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman, and Noah Syndergaard, all of who made splashy but not impossible out-of-reach deals for the organization to match. When the market reopened, the Twins rebounded by making the smart move to trade their first-round draft pick for Sonny Gray. But then they went with not one not two but three different "fix me up" projects: Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer, and Chris Paddack. Beyond Gray, that left five essentially unproven starters on opening day. The bullpen additions were equally shaky with the additions of Joe Smith and Emilio Pagán while dealing Taylor Rogers. Most importantly, the Twins essentially committed almost no new money in this realm beyond their trade capital, an odd sign for a team serious about contending. Of course, the Twins put money down this season with a pair of $100+ million contracts: an extension of Buxton and a second in a blockbuster deal to commit $35.1 million a year to Carlos Correa. Bringing in a playoff specialist like Correa was the essential move they needed. It at least felt part of their decision to erase bad clubhouse vibes by flipping Josh Donaldson for Yankees veterans Gio Urshela and Gary Sánchez. Neither Urshela nor Sánchez were the top Bronx bombers, but there was plenty of sense they were the kind of players who understood big spots and big games. And yet, the Twins probably remained slim in other veteran talent to reinforce their lineup. The previous year had demonstrated that the team did not have their prospects ready to go as eight different men took to center field to fill in injury after injury. Whether the Twins expected this year's injury woes to be worse than last year, their decision to depend entirely on prospects to back up Buxton and Kepler felt short-sided with plenty of low-end veterans available on the market (Kevin Pillar for example took a minor league deal with the Dodgers). A strong reload rarely means depending on new players—those 2005 Sox were all veterans beyond their season call-up of closer Bobby Jenks—but the Twins seemingly put a lot of hope on what feels like too many prospects suddenly becoming core players. Jose Miranda, Griffin Jax, and Jhoan Duran, have made themselves essential to this year's success, but others still have question marks about their long term viability (whether injury or ability). Either way, building through prospects is similar to what this year's Mariners have done where team has done after a long rebuild where they plan on years of contention after making a number of high profile trades and signings of known quantities to reinforce any flops of their prospects (Julio Rodríguez and George Kirby has outshined all potential, while Jarred Kelenic has essentially disappeared). Reloads are not just about graduating prospects; it's about building with those who don't need time to figure out their success. In another world, Donaldson was traded for prospects rather than big leaguers, and you could imagine Buxton, Polanco, and even Arraez packing their bags for other ballparks. Watching multiple seasons of poor performance in the hope of a good team down the road is no one's idea of fun, so the fact that the Twins pushed this year remains a blessing. But in retrospect, their approach in the reload feels odd. The Twins did increase their salary by 20% this season, but in the end, they were perhaps not in the place for the reload that wins championships. What was missing from the Twins reload? Sound off in the comments.

Derek Falvey and Thad Levine orchestrated a near-flawless trade deadline for the Minnesota Twins. They grabbed a good starter in Tyler Mahle, and netted a bullpen piece in Michael Fulmer. Acquiring an All-Star closer in Jorge Lopez was a great get as well, but it’s hardly gone as planned. Lopez came to the Twins with a 1.68 ERA across 48 1/3 innings. He racked up 19 saves for Baltimore and virtually all of his work came in high leverage. He had a strong 10.1 K/9 and a WHIP below 1.000. If regression was going to hit, it shouldn’t have been expected to be brutal given a solid 3.00 FIP. Fast forward to where we are now and Lopez has made 15 appearances for the Twins totaling 14 1/3 innings. He owns a 4.40 ERA and an awful 11/9 K/BB. He hasn’t allowed a home run but is giving up more than ten hits per nine innings and every appearance is a tightrope act to get through. Before coming to Minnesota, Lopez was allowing just a 19.8% hard-hit rate and was getting whiffs 11.4% of the time. His fastball was being used 55% of the time and clocked in just shy of 98 mph on average. Lopez used the curveball 20% of the time and often twirled it as his out pitch. Since joining the Twins, he has continued using his fastball and the life remains the same. Instead of predominantly going to the curveball as a secondary offering, however, he’s dropped the usage and now is going with his changeup 20% of the time. The hard-hit rate is the same, but the whiff rate has dropped below 9%. It’s not at all abnormal for a pitcher to experience tweaks from a new organization, but it could be that the Twins have tinkered too much here. Although the sample size is small, and Lopez will remain in the organization for the next two seasons, swapping out secondary offerings has not produced positive results to this point. Lopez was hit around plenty as a starter, and reducing his repertoire has been integral in his advancement as a reliever. He’ll need to advocate for himself though if there’s a better belief in a specific secondary offering. When with Baltimore, it seemed the curveball paired just fine with his heat, and while it’s still there, the changeup replacing its usage may not be the best step forward. You can bet both Lopez and the Twins coaching staff will look to get him right the rest of the way, and the hope would be he finds another gear in 2023 as he returns to early-season form. That said, it may be time to reverse course on the current plan, at least through the duration of the season, to see if better results can be achieved. I don’t think Lopez has reverted to being a bad pitcher as he was in his starting days, but finding the right offerings to unlock his best self has to be a focus from here on out. Would you say that Lopez has been a disappointment in his short time with the Twins?

Coming into the season, off of a long lockout, the Minnesota Twins were not seen as favorites. Even after signing a superstar in Carlos Correa, the questions about pitching remained. Yes, Sonny Gray was acquired, but Kenta Maeda was expected to be out most of the year, and a young duo in Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober were expected to carry the load. Bullpen questions remained, and only Joe Smith was brought in to answer them. After a mediocre first month, Rocco Baldelli had his guys clicking through May. Maybe the one period of relative health throughout the whole season, Minnesota’s manager orchestrated an 18-12 record. It’s been .500 or worse each month since then, and despite the initial expectations, it’s hard to suggest they weren’t raised after Derek Falvey and Thad Levine provided reinforcements at the deadline. Whether Minnesota claws back and makes the postseason or not, the manager has plenty to sort through this season. Baldelli has now managed more than 500 games for Minnesota and has accumulated a winning record. His win percentage is .533, well above Ron Gardenhire’s .484, Paul Molitor’s .471, or Tom Kelly’s .478. The Twins have won the division twice during his four-year tenure, and they should be seen as a candidate to do so again in 2023. It’s not fair to chalk 2022 up as a wash entirely because of injuries. Baldelli has consistently operated with half of his deck, but there’s been ample opportunity to provide better results. It’s probably worth wondering how things would have gone if Minnesota had seen even a slightly better outcome in terms of the guys they’ve lost to injury. It’s also not fair to suggest Baldelli has failed given the hurdles he’s had to clear. Ultimately a front office wants a manager to be their representative of process in the clubhouse. I think it’s safe to say that Baldelli is in lockstep with his bosses. It’s also more than evident that Baldelli gets along with his players, and has their respect as well. Both of those realities are integral when deciding to keep someone in the position. Unlike Molitor before him, it seems that Baldelli is able to effectively communicate with the guys on the field, and is able to get buy-in when wanting players to try new things. If the Twins were to change course, it probably would have a ripple effect throughout the clubhouse, and that sort of shakeup may not be beneficial given the youth expected to produce in 2023 and beyond. Consistency among leadership can be viewed as a positive, and Baldelli has already connected with so many that will take on larger roles in the years ahead. Should Minnesota make a move, and I think there's an opportunity for them to do so, it will come throughout the coaching staff as a whole. Maybe there's opportunity to shore up baserunning or generate a secondary voice in the clubhouse. Pete Maki has been fine in Wes Johnson’s position, but a more established pitching coach makes sense as well. At times throughout this season, it’s seemed the clubhouse needed a more vocal leader to beg for accountability or change. While that’s not Baldelli’s demeanor and isn’t really that of Correa or Byron Buxton, it could be that of a performance coach or someone tabbed with the background solely to rise to the occasion. We’ll see changes this offseason, there will be more than a few on the coaching staff, but I think it’s safe to say the front office should and will retain their manager.

Nearly every baseball fan base will suffer frustration in any given season. Only one team walks away with the World Series title, and even the best clubs go through slides in a 162-game season. Minnesota still has a small window to reach the postseason, but it will take a tremendous turnaround from a very injured roster. So, what makes this season more frustrating than last year? Early-Season Success Most national projections had the Twins as the second-best team in the AL Central going into the season. Minnesota's early success masked the fact that the club was likely heading for a .500 record. Obviously, projections can be taken with a grain of salt, but the Twins' early season success changed the team's outlook. The AL Central was a mess, and it looked like the Twins had an opportunity to capitalize on one of baseball's worst divisions. During the 2021 season, the team was out of playoff contention by the end of the season's first month. While this was frustrating, it was easier for fans not to get wrapped up in the team's poor play for the remainder of the year. Trade Deadline Success and Failure As July ended, the Twins were playing poorly, but they still sat at the top of the AL Central. Even so, the front office went into the trade deadline looking to add pieces to the roster. For the first time under this regime, it felt like the front office was trying to set the Twins up for second-half success and a possible playoff run. On paper, the players acquired at the deadline looked like a success, but it has turned into a failure. Tyler Mahle is injured, and likely won't pitch again in 2022. Jorge Lopez hasn't been a dominant reliever with the Twins while being pushed out of the closer role. Ideally, both players would lead Minnesota to a division title, which adds to fans' frustration when they aren't meeting expectations. Mounting Injuries Last season, it didn't matter if there were injured players because the Twins were out of contention. Every team deals with injuries, but they have been catastrophic for the 2022 Twins. Injuries have become the theme for Minnesota as the club has put more players on the injured list than any other American League team. This has to be frustrating for the coaching staff because it feels like the team is playing without a full deck. It becomes easy to point fingers when a club isn't performing as expected, but the Twins can field a full roster of currently injured players. Not Meeting Injury Timelines Another frustration related to injuries is how frequently the club has been wrong about timelines for players to return. It has been standard practice for teams to provide an injury timeline when a player goes on the IL. Unfortunately, the club has placed numerous players on the IL, but they haven't seemed to be able to get return timelines correct for multiple seasons. Traditionally, Minnesota has been conservative with their provided injury timelines, so one would hope the players could meet those timelines. For fans, this can add to frustration levels because there is an expectation that the team will improve when players get back on the field. Ultimately, the 2022 season has been frustrating for everything involved with the Twins. Fans have every right to be frustrated as the club has squandered an opportunity for a third division title in the last four seasons. Do you think the 2022 season has been more frustrating than 2021? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.