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It’s the holiday season, and many shoppers are attempting to find the best deals on the season’s hottest items (Twins Daily even has a gift guide). Teams across baseball are trying to cross items off their own wish lists, but shopping for free agents is sometimes riskier than going for the almost-free big screen on Black Friday. Players are paid on past performance, and some fail to repeat that performance as age and other factors start to play a role. Last week at The Athletic, Cody Stavenhagen ranked baseball’s worst contracts based on what is owed to the player and the expected performance from that player. Some of the worst contracts include Javier Báez, Kris Bryant, and Anthony Rendon. The Twins have their own buyer’s remorse with some of the team’s long-term deals. 4. Christian Vazquez, C Original deal: Three years, $30 million 2024: $10 million 2025: $10 million The Twins had a need at catcher last season, following a poor year from Ryan Jeffers and the departure of Gary Sánchez. The front office quickly targeted Vázquez and signed him to a three-year pact. Trade rumors have surfaced this offseason that have the Twins shipping out veteran players to free up payroll space, but the team would probably need to eat some of the $20 million he is owed over the next two seasons. On Wednesday, Nick discussed Vazquez's value to the Twins, especially with a younger starting staff. According to FanGraphs, Vázquez was worth $7.6 million last season, even though his 65 OPS+ was his lowest total since 2018. The Twins also utilize a two-catcher rotation, which would be less feasible without Vázquez. It doesn't make sense for a team cutting payroll to trade Vázquez when his value is near its lowest point, and they would have to pay down his contract. 3. Randy Dobnak, SP Original deal: Five years, $9.25 million 2024: $2.25 million 2025: $3 million Dobnak’s extension was a strange contract from the moment it was announced, in March 2021. He was coming off a spring training in which he showcased an improved slider that looked like a strikeout weapon. Minnesota bought out his pre-arbitration and arbitration years, and obtained club options on his first three would-be free-agent years. It gave the Twins some cost certainty, but it looks like a poor deal in retrospect. Dobnak is no longer on the 40-man roster, after spending multiple seasons dealing with a finger issue. Last season, he made 31 appearances (26 starts) at Triple-A with a 5.13 ERA, a 1.65 WHIP, and 8.2 K/9. His contract isn’t going to break the bank, but it also wasn’t a move the team was forced to make at the time. 2. Byron Buxton, DH Original deal: Seven years, $100 million 2024: $15 million 2025: $15 million 2026: $15 million 2027: $15 million 2028: $15 million Buxton’s deal didn’t look bad when he signed it, but it has aged poorly over the last year. The Twins signed him as their everyday center fielder, and his damaged knees have limited him to DH duties. From 2021 to 2022, Buxton was worth over $30 million per season, even when averaging 76 games per season. Minnesota can hope that Buxton will return to the outfield at some point, but that's far from certain after not he didn't play a single defensive inning at the big-league level in 2023. His bat will have to carry him through the remainder of his contract, and he’s shown the ability to be one of baseball’s best hitters when he is healthy. In his career, there have only been two full seasons where he has been worth less than $15 million, so there is hope he will bounce back next year. 1. Carlos Correa, SS Original deal: Six years, $200 million 2024: $36 million 2025: $36 million 2026: $31.5 million 2027: $30.5 million 2028: $30 million Correa was named an honorable mention in the original piece at The Athletic because he was only worth 1.4 rWAR in 2023. Twins fans are well aware of Correa’s struggles this season as he dealt with plantar fasciitis. Minnesota hopes Correa can use the offseason to put his injury behind him and return to performing at his previous level. Last week, I wrote about Correa’s first season since signing his big contract and how he impacts the club’s future payroll decisions. Correa and Buxton are tied to the team’s roster through 2028, and nearly $50 million per season is being paid to these two players. Contracts that initially look bad can rebound and look reasonable, especially if Buxton and Correa can return to performing at an All-Star level. Free-agent deals rarely work out in the team’s favor. Clubs pay a premium for the contract's early years and suffer the consequences of declining performance in the back half of the deal. This trend is becoming even more pervasive with big-market teams, as they sign players to 10- to 12-year contracts to spread the money out and avoid paying more in luxury tax. Minnesota isn’t going to approach the luxury tax, so it is even more critical that the front office is spending money wisely on the free market. Do you agree with these rankings? Should Buxton rank higher than Correa? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

On its face, the idea of trading a backup catcher who makes $10 million seems like a pretty logical method of lowering payroll without substantially downgrading the team. Especially when that catcher is coming off a truly hideous offensive season where the starter in front of him emerged as one of the game's best backstops. And so it comes as no surprise the Twins are said to be "aggressively" trying to move Christian Vázquez (among others) as next week's Winter Meetings approach. An uninspiring free agent class for catchers, headlined by Gary Sánchez, is helping create a market to shop Vázquez even coming off a 2023 campaign where he posted a sub-.600 OPS and ceded his starting job. I'm not trying to say that losing Vázquez would be some sort of disaster, with Ryan Jeffers establishing himself as a true standout and Jair Camargo recently joining the 40-man roster. Vázquez had become so extraneous to the Twins by October that he didn't get a single postseason AB – although I'd argue this owed more to their belief in Jeffers than a lack of faith in Vázquez. Things change from year to year. Just because Vázquez had a down year offensively doesn't mean he can't rebound and get back near the average-ish level that was his baseline the previous four years. And also, focusing on his bat does not tell the full story of what Vázquez provides by a longshot. Most defensive metrics (including SDI) ranked the 33-year-old among the game's best catchers – far better than Jeffers. His presence should not be overlooked in assessing the team's remarkable pitching breakthrough, or overall run prevention prowess. Whether you're looking at blocking, framing, or throwing, Vázquez graded out extremely well. Yes, $10 million for a backup catcher feels like a luxury. But it's better to look at the tandem of he and Jeffers as a combined cost of a bout $12.5 million, which is a very reasonable commitment to one of the most critical positions on the field. It's important to think about the insurance Vázquez provides for Jeffers, who has quickly become one of the franchise's most key assets. Let us not forget what a priority it was for the Twins to go out and get a veteran catcher a year ago, and why. They targeted Vázquez and went out of their comfort zone by adding a third year to their offer for him, specifically because Jeffers had proven so unreliable from a health and production standpoint. One good season, as impressive as it was, does not eliminate these concerns for Jeffers. Looking ahead to 2024, one of the most glaring concerns for the Minnesota Twins is regression. The team would be leaving themselves with little protection behind the plate by subtracting the trusted veteran safety net that is Vázquez; another significant injury to Jeffers would leave the completely untested 24-year-old Camargo atop the catching depth chart. Sure, you could say Vázquez is a luxury. But he doesn't seem like the kind of luxury that a team with World Series aspirations should be looking to part with – rather the kind they should be looking to add.

Though no longer the top destination for statistically-inclined baseball fans online, Baseball Prospectus was the first site to publish and maintain what we now know as WAR--though they have always called it WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player), and continue to do so. They now have a suite of rigorously-derived, state-of-the-art metrics designed to quantify each player's contributions within pitching (Deserved Run Average, or DRA), hitting (Deserved Runs Created, or DRC), and fielding (Defensive Runs Prevented, or DRP). Unlike (for instance) Baseball Reference's and FanGraphs's offensive stats, DRC (and its well-adjusted cousin, DRC+) does not rely solely on actual results, adjusted for league and park factors. Unlike either other site's pitching value estimators, DRA (and DRA-) doesn't focus on actual runs allowed or on fielding-independent pitching (FIP). Unlike Statcast-fueled expected statistics you can find on Baseball Savant, none of these stats are directly adjusted based on the difference between actual outcomes and the average ones on similar batted balls (or opponents' batted balls). Instead, these stats take a more granular, less dogmatic approach. Every plate appearance is accounted for in full. Thus, the framework accounts for the level of opposition and the friendliness of the circumstance in every opportunity being evaluated. This can lead to numbers that deviate sharply from what we saw actually happen, and that always makes fans uneasy, but again, teams sometimes make choices we consider inscrutable. It's by digging deeper into the data and seeing when a player's latent talent and actual contribution might differ from their surface-level production that we can start to explain (or even anticipate) those seemingly peculiar calls. Let's look at some places where the Twins' D-suite numbers and Baseball Prospectus WARP tell an importantly different story than the one more widely-embraced stats have been telling.

There's no other way to frame it: The start of this offseason has been flat-out deflating for Minnesota Twins fans. After watching a promising ALDS fizzle out at Target Field, we've since been informed directly by the team's leadership that we can expect payroll cuts next year. It's a splash of cold water following the franchise's much-awaited resurgence. Thus far, everything we've seen from the Twins in a slow start to the offseason has been suggestive of a commitment to the status quo. There have been no real surprises or curveballs yet. But that doesn't mean some aren't in store. Read on to catch up on any moves or headlines you might've missed. Twins Extend Arbitration To All Eligible Players Minnesota's front office characteristically waited until the very last minute to make their decisions public, but ultimately ruffled no feathers when the deadline to extend 2024 contracts for arbitration-eligible (and pre-arb) players arrived on November 17th. The Twins extended offers to the following seven players, whose salary estimates for next year are listed alongside: Kyle Farmer, $6.6M Willi Castro, $3.2M Caleb Thielbar, $3.0M Ryan Jeffers: $2.3M Alex Kirilloff: $1.7M Nick Gordon, $1.0M Jorge Alcala, $1.0M Just because these players were offered arbitration, that does not assure they'll be on the team next year. In some cases (i.e. Farmer) it's probably more likely they won't be. But for now, all seven remain in the Twins' plans. Prospects Added to 40-Man, Suspects Subtracted Earlier, the Twins had added four prospects to their 40-man roster in order to protect them from the upcoming Rule 5 draft: Emmanuel Rodriguez, Austin Martin, Jair Camargo, and Yunior Severino. You can read about the minor-leaguers who were NOT added, and thus left vulnerable to getting plucked away when the Rule 5 takes place, here. These additions have been counterbalanced by a number of marginal or injured players being removed and outrighted from the 40-man roster, including all the departing free agents (Michael A. Taylor, Tyler Mahle, Donovan Solano, Kenta Maeda, Sonny Gray, Dallas Keuchel, Emilio Pagan, Joey Gallo) as well as relievers Jovani Moran and Ronny Henriquez. Gray was extended a qualifying offer, which he rejected, so in the likely event he signs elsewhere, the Twins will get draft pick compensation. All of this shuffling leaves the 40-man roster at 36, as the Twins turn their attention toward acquiring new talent. Twins Said To Be Shopping Vázquez Last offseason, the Twins' top priority was signing Christian Vázquez, and they got it done before Christmas. This year, their top priority already be unloading his contract. According to MLB insider Robert Murray, via Foul Territory TV, "The Twins are looking to cut payroll and have aggressively tried to move certain players, including Christian Vázquez." Just a bummer of a headline and tone-setter for this offseason, as alluded earlier. For the Twins to immediately go into open cost-cutting mode following such an energizing, breakthrough season is horrible optics. Alas, here we are. Vázquez is coming off one of his worst offensive seasons, but rated out well defensively and clearly has some level of demand in a sparse catching market. Still, it's tough to envision the Twins getting much more than salary relief in return for trading the veteran and his remaining two years, $20 million. Detroit Zeroing In on Maeda Elsewhere, it sounds like momentum is building toward a deal between Maeda and the Detroit Tigers, which would keep the right-hander in the AL Central following his four-year stint with the Twins. The Twins were said to be in the mix for Maeda, but I don't get the sense they are prepared to win a bidding war for the 35-year-old coming off a good-not-great season. With Detroit looking to take a step forward and overtake the Twins after finishing second this year, snagging away Maeda would be an interesting development for a budding rivalry. The Hot Stove has been cool thus far, but it's bound to heat up soon. Stay tuned to Twins Daily for real-time coverage and discussion of the MLB offseason.

Defensive metrics have come a long way over the last decade. With Statcast tracking every batted ball, the amount of information available to fans is at an all-time high. One metric the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) developed is the SABR Defensive Index (SDI). According to SABR's website, the SDI "draws on and aggregates two types of existing defensive metrics: those derived from batted ball location-based data and those collected from play-by-play accounts." Since 2013, SDI has been used as part of the process for selecting Gold Glove winners. The rankings below are the final totals for the 2023 season. Pitcher (AL Ranking): Pablo Lopez 3.2 SDI (2nd), Sonny Gray 3.0 SDI (3rd) Lopez and Gray were Gold Glove finalists and finished in the top three in the final SDI rankings. Gray made a tremendous jump in the season’s second half to move from the bottom half to the top five. Lopez ranked well for a large portion of the season and might have put himself in contention for a Gold Glove in future years. Former Twins pitcher Jose Berrios won his first Gold Glove and ranked as the top pitcher in the AL, according to SDI. He has been a tremendous defender throughout his career, so it was long overdue for him to take home the hardware. Catcher (AL Ranking): Christian Vazquez 3.5 SDI (4th), Ryan Jeffers -0.3 SDI (10th) Vazquez saw his offense suffer during the 2023 season, but his defense continued to rank near the top of the league. He more than doubled his SDI total from August 13th to the season’s end, which can be challenging for catchers at the end of a long season. Jeffers had a positive SDI earlier in the season but saw his total drop in the second half. He still finished in the top 10, and the Twins had enough confidence in him to start every playoff game behind the plate. It will be interesting to monitor how this duo continues to rank in future years as they work together. First Base (AL Ranking): Joey Gallo -0.2 SDI (5th) For most of the season, the Twins had no one qualified for the SDI leaderboard at first base. Alex Kirilloff’s injury forced the Twins to use other options at first, including Gallo. The Twins had confidence in Gallo playing first base when they signed him last winter because bench coach Jayce Tingler worked with Gallo in Texas. Gallo’s defense wasn’t outstanding, but he did enough to finish among the top five AL first basemen in SDI. Second Base (AL Ranking): No Twins Players Qualify The Twins used Edouard Julien and Jorge Polanco at second base during the 2023 campaign, with both struggling defensively at the position. Polanco posted a -9 OAA during the 2022 season, and he was worth -7 OAA during the current season. Julien entered the season with a reputation as a poor second base defender, but he worked hard and saw improved results. He had a -2 OAA in the middle of August and ended the season with a 0 OAA. Minnesota will need to decide on their defensive alignment for the 2024 campaign, and Julien might get more time at first base. Third Base (AL Ranking): No Twins Players Qualify Minnesota used a variety of players at third base this season, including Jose Miranda, Kyle Farmer, and Royce Lewis. Miranda’s defense was poor (-6 OAA), but a shoulder injury impacted him throughout the season. Lewis was learning a new position after playing shortstop for most of his professional career. He moved from a negative OAA in August to a positive OAA by the season’s end. With a full offseason, one can expect Lewis to be even better at the hot corner in 2024. Shortstop (AL Ranking): Carlos Correa -2.7 SDI (9th) Correa was a surprise inclusion on the list of Gold Glove Finalists, but that speaks to how much the players and managers respect him in the voting process. He didn’t rank well by many defensive metrics, including a negative SDI and 1 OAA. His plantar fasciitis likely impacted his defensive ability during the season, which was one of the reasons for fluctuations in his metrics. Twins saw what he could mean defensively in the playoffs, with Correa making multiple game-changing plays. Following the season, the Twins named Correa the team's best defensive player as part of the Diamond Awards. Left Field (AL Ranking): Willi Castro 1.5 SDI (4th) Castro didn’t have a strong defensive reputation when he joined the Twins, but he put together solid numbers at multiple positions. He played six defensive positions and posted a positive OAA at second base, third base, and shortstop. Left field was the lone outfield position where he didn’t have a negative OAA (0 OAA in LF). Joey Gallo ranked among the AL’s top 10 in August, but he played more first base down the stretch (see above). Center Field (AL Ranking): Michael A. Taylor 6.3 SDI (5th) Taylor looked like a potential Gold Glove finalist at mid-season before stalling out. He dropped from a tie for third in SDI to fifth overall in the final rankings. His OAA ranks in the 95th percentile, seven points higher than last season, and his arm strength ranks in the 90th percentile. Taylor was everything the Twins could hope for and more in center field, and the team will need to re-sign him or find a replacement this winter. Right Field (AL Ranking): Max Kepler 2.5 SDI (5th) Like Kepler’s bat, his defense made considerable strides in the second half. In August’s SDI update, he ranked 9th among AL right fielders, and he finished the year in the top-5. The Twins have always thought highly of Kepler’s defensive value, and he finished the year with an OAA in the 86th percentile. Kepler’s slow start( some due to injury) likely cost him a chance to be a Gold Glove finalist for the second consecutive season. Are you surprised by any of these defensive rankings? Who would you rank as the team's top defender? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

Christian Vázquez struggled significantly at the plate throughout much of 2023. His down year came to a head in the postseason, where his lack of a single appearance confirmed that he's undoubtedly the backup to Ryan Jeffers moving forward. On the wrong side of 30 years of age, and with multiple years of a relatively high salary remaining, could the Twins shake up the catching mix this winter? The Twins aggressively pursued Christian Vázquez last winter, eventually signing him to a 3-year, $30m contract to ensure he came to Minnesota. The bottom fell out in the deal's first year, as Vázquez posted a .598 OPS. His barrel rate plummeted to just 3.2%, and he struck out a career-high 23.1% of the time. At 32 years of age, it's fair to wonder whether this was a skills decline rather than just a down year. To the credit of Vázquez, he was still a plus defender behind the plate, something that the Twins indeed value for good reason. His blocking and framing were still excellent, even if his pop time declined. The defense is a significant consideration for two reasons. From the Twins' perspective, it may help bridge the gap between his offensive decline and the price tag. We know by now that the Twins believe in a near timeshare behind the plate to keep their catchers fresh. As long as Vázquez remains a plus defender, he'll likely still be seen as a perfectly viable option to start roughly half of the time in 2024. On the other hand, the defense could offer one final chance for the Twins to get out of the remaining $20m through 2025. After such a down year offensively, it may be hard to envision teams lining up to trade for Christian Vázquez, but it's not impossible. Just one offseason ago, the Twins had to go to great lengths to outbid multiple other teams. It may be tempting if they're willing to pay down at least some of the money to trade him and have a few million to spend elsewhere. When it comes to backup catchers, there are always plenty of options. Another significant factor in how the Twins pursue the catching position for 2024 likely has much to do with their opinion of Jair Camargo. The 24-year-old spent all of 2024 in St. Paul with a league-average .253/.323/.503 slash line. He slugged 21 homers with adequate defense behind the plate. He may not be a top prospect, but if the Twins believe he can hold his own offensively and play passable defense, he would likely be a fine backup catcher. The allure of this scenario is that Camargo would make the league minimum instead of $10m. The Twins could sign another glove-first backup at a more appropriate price tag, with Camargo still waiting in the wings in the event of injury. There may not be exciting names hitting the open market to replace Vázquez. Still, a player such as Victor Caratini could make sense as a switch hitter who provided near-league-average offense and plus defense last season and still won't break the bank. The Twins will have to decide this winter whether so much shuffling would be worth it at such a low-impact position. With revenues likely to decline with the TV network situation, it could be a reasonable way to save a few million. It's also possible they still see Vázquez as worthy of his $10m price tag, which would be fair given his strong defense. Perhaps they even project him to bounce back to some degree with the bat in 2024. After signing a sizeable three-year deal, it's been an odd first year for Christian Vázquez. Should the Twins look to move on from Christian Vázquez in 2024 to reallocate some payroll? Do they have what they need in Jair Camargo, or can they find another worthy replacement? Let us know below!

One year ago, the Twins wondered what to do about the catcher position. Gary Sanchez had led the team in appearances during the 2022 season but was heading to free agency. Minnesota wanted a veteran player to pair with Ryan Jeffers behind the plate. Early in the offseason, the Twins identified Vazquez as their top free agent target and quickly signed him to a three-year, $30 million deal. The team brought him in to provide solid defense, hoping he could provide some offense at the back end of the lineup. Vazquez struggled offensively during his first season with the Twins. In 102 games, he hit .223/.280/.318 (.598) with 19 extra-base hits and 82 strikeouts. His 65 OPS+ was his lowest total since 2018. According to FanGraphs, Vazquez provided the Twins with $7.6 million worth of value during the 2023 season. Over the last five seasons, Vazquez has been worth anywhere from $28.1 million (2019) to $2.7 million (2021). There have been good and bad seasons throughout his career, so the Twins can hope he bounces back in 2024. Even with poor offensive totals, Vazquez remains a strong defensive catcher. He ranked fifth among AL catchers in SABR’s Defensive Index when the totals were last updated. Baseball Savant ranked him in the 70th percentile or higher in Blocks Above Average and Framing while also being above average in Pop Time. His Caught Stealing Above Average moved from the 34th percentile last season to the 61st percentile in 2023. His defensive numbers and how he handles a pitching staff are the main reasons the Twins continued to split time between their two catchers. Minnesota’s evolving payroll situation is in flux entering the offseason. The Twins are unsure of their television home for 2024 and beyond after their contract with Bally Sports expired at the season’s end. As John wrote over the weekend, the team’s TV rights were worth $54.8 million in 2023, and that revenue is in question for next season. Last year, the Twins' payroll was a team record $154 million on Opening Day, and the Twins have roughly $124 million committed for next season if they bring everyone back besides free agents. The Twins can trade away higher-priced veterans to open some spending, but the team will likely have to pay some of Vazquez’s contract to get anything back. The Twins have an intriguing catching prospect that played the entire 2023 season at Triple-A. Jair Camargo was acquired along with Kenta Maeda from the Dodgers leading into the 2020 season. At the time, he was a 20-year-old catcher who had yet to play a game above the High-A level. In 2023, he played 90 games at Triple-A and hit .259/.323/.503 (.826) with 16 doubles and 21 home runs. Camargo became a minor-league free agent last year but quickly signed to stay with the Twins. He is a logical candidate for the Twins to add to the 40-man roster, and they will need to do so before he again becomes a free agent at the completion of the World Series. Would the front office trust him enough to take over a backup role to Jeffers? The free-agent catcher market is sparse this winter, which might make teams more interested in trading for Vazquez. Former Twins Mitch Garver and Gary Sanchez are some of the best options, and both players have flaws in their game. Garver is seen more as a DH option, with the Rangers giving him fewer than 30 starts behind the plate. In addition to Garver's forearm surgery that cut his 2022 season in half, Jonah Heim has become an All Star backstop for the Rangers. Sanchez struggled to find an organization last season before finding a home in San Diego and posting a 116 OPS+ in 72 games. Neither player is considered strong behind the plate, and that’s why organizations might start looking for trade options. The Twins still like Vazquez, and they likely believe he can return to his previous offensive production. He previously had poor seasons and bounced back nicely the following year. However, Vazquez is 33 years old, and he’s caught over 6,200 innings at the big-league level. That’s a lot of wear and tear on a player’s legs, which can impact offensive performance toward the end of a career. Minnesota must decide which version of Vazquez will enter spring training next season. Depth became a theme for the 2023 Twins, and it’s likely one reason the team won the AL Central. Minnesota was lucky to make it through the season by only needing two catchers for the entire season. That won’t happen again next year, so the Twins will likely keep Vazquez and find other spots on the roster to make cuts. Will the Twins keep Vazquez or try to trade him? What kind of value does he have on the trade market? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

Box Score: Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober - 6.2 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 9 K (96 Pitches, 66 Strikes, 69%) Home Runs: None Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs): The main question coming out of Sunday afternoon's completion of the regular season was "Who will the Twins face at Target Field on Tuesday?" As the Twins and Bailey Ober went about their business, the answer to that question emerged, and the Twins looked sharp throughout most of their final tune-up for the Wild Card series. Ober Hopes for a Division Series Opportunity As the late-season pitching auditions continued, Bailey Ober made his case for becoming the Game 1 ALDS starter. Ober started the game looking to build on a September of succes, having gone 2-0 with a 2.40 ERA over his three Fall starts. Through the first four innings, Ober struck out five and only surrendered one hit to Nolan Jones. Unfortunately that hit traveled 458 feet. Oppo-rific Second Inning The Twins carried a 2-1 lead into the fifth inning mainly because their offense got opposite-field happy in the top of the second. Four straight singles to where the defense wasn't by Max Kepler, Ryan Jeffers, Edouard Julien, and Alex Kirilloff plated two runs and gave Twins fans hopes of playoff offensive success. The offense went on snooze control from there, however, and the regulars began getting pinch hit for in the sixth inning. Seriously, Who Do We Play on Tuesday? Every game on the final Sunday started at 2pm CDT so that no one could unnecessarily tank. The Twins were locked and loaded to play either Houston or Toronto in their opening round, and by the time the sixth inning rolled around it looked fairly obvious that the Canadians would be invading Target Field on Tuesday. The Astros were taking care of the Diamondbacks, and the Rangers were losing to the Mariners. Twins fans were lamenting the Blue Jays' decision to skip Kevin Gausman for today's start implied that Toronto was setting themselves up for a loss today. Jose Berrios at Target Field on Wednesday doesn't sound wonderful either. Conspiracy theorists really took off once the Rays lit Wes Parsons (who definitely isn't Gausman) for seven runs in the second inning. Stay tuned... Intriguing Side-Story Part 2 The other Twins-worthy item of note involved the 2019 Bomba Squad home run record and the 2023 juggernaut Atlanta Braves. The Braves entered the day with 305 long balls, just three shy of the Twins' record 307. Marcell Ozuna took one deep in the third inning, putting them at 306 in their matchup with the Washington Nationals with Ronald Acuna Jr. and Matt Olson having been removed from the game in the fifth inning. Back to Coors Field for a Game Still Being Played Ober kept dealing through the middle innings. The Twins offense kept sputtering. But the highlight of the game in what might be the final appearance of Twins baseball on TV as we've known it, Justin Morneau and Trevor Plouffe caught Dick Bremer off-guard with a cake and some bourbon in honor of Bremer's 40th season of bringing Twins baseball to the midwest and beyond. The future is uncertain for all parties, but clearly Bremer has made an impact with former players and staff, as well as the Blyleven fill-in's. Bremer teared up, and I forgave him for causing me pain with his premature home run calls all season. A bunt single led to Solano chucking the ball to goodness knows where, but the Rockies couldn't cash the run in and it was still 2-1 after six. Roster News Earlier in the day, the Twins called up Jorge Alcala and sent Dallas Keuchel to the IL after he apparently pitched injured to eat up innings for his squad yesterday. This answers the "Will Dallas be on the Wild Card roster?" question, but we already knew that. The bigger news might have been Gilberto Celestino being designated for assignment as a corresponding move. Celestino went from being a most-improved and unsung hero last season to an afterthought on the roster this season. We wish him well wherever he lands. Side-Story Updates As the games reached their seventh innings, the results stayed the same. Blue Jay fans were aggressively monitoring SeatGeak for a Tuesday and Wednesday run to Target Field. Houston looks to sit atop the AL West after all thanks to an indifferent Diamondbacks playoff team and a Rangers almost epic full collapse in Seattle. Houston will enjoy the week off as the #2 seed alongside #1 Baltimore. The Twins will host the Blue Jays (at 3:38 CT) and the Rays will host the Rangers on Tuesday. The Braves are still sitting at 305 home runs as they head to the eighth inning. Things Turn Bitter at Coors Alcala got the call for the Twins in the eighth inning, and he got the first two outs without issue. After running up the count 3-1 on pinch-hitting right hander Sean Bouchard, Alcala got away with a cookie to run the count full, and lost a cookie to the left field bleachers on the next pitch to tie the game at two apiece, and add uncertainty to his ability to be called upon when the games really really really matter over the next few weeks. After allowing three home runs in just over five innings of work in May, Alcala needed to show that his long ball issues were behind him. That didn't happen. Alcala returned in the ninth inning and well, and got the first two outs again easily before being squeezed early in the count by the home plate umpire into a 3-0 count and an eventual walk where Morneau was quick to claim that all five pitches were actually strikes. Kris Bryant came up with a hero moment, and an attempt to send the 100+ loss Rockies faithful home happy. With Christian Vazquez manning second base, Jones took second base while Vazquez whiffed twice at the tag. Bryant walked. Kudos to Alcala, who took all of that misfortune in his first game back since May and got Ryan McMahon to dribble out to third to end the threat. Hope lingers a bit more in young Alcala than it did an inning ago. One Last Dance with Ghost Runners! The "runner at second" in extra innings goes away once we reach the postseason, so Sunday afternoon offered one last chance for fans to discuss how much they love or hate this rule that's here to stay in the regular season at least. The 10th inning came and went without a run. In the 11th, the Twins loaded the bases only to have Jordan Luplow strike out. Luplow's punishment was to go to the mound to pitch the bottom half of the inning in a full-surrender scenario. He enticed a pop fly to right to start the inning, but with the ghost runner Brenton Doyle streaking for third, Vazquez (now catching) missed the pitch allowing Doyle to scamper home to end this meaningless ballgame 3-2. To add another gloomy cloud to this afternoon, in Atlanta, the lone starter left in the lineup, Ozuna, went deep yet again for number 307, tying the Bomba Squad for the all-time season record for most home runs. It's better than 308, but it still stings. What’s Next: Twins RHP Pablo Lopez (11-8, 3.66 ERA in regular season) will lead the Twins into the most anticipated Twins playoff games in recent history. He will most likely face the above-mentioned Blue Jay RHP Gausman (12-9, 3.16 ERA in the regular season). The game will take place at 3:38pm CDT on Tuesday, October 3rd. Stay tuned to Twins Daily for the details that matter during the Wild Card Round! Postgame Interviews: Bullpen Usage Chart: WED THU FRI SAT SUN TOT Maeda 0 62 0 0 0 62 Funderburk 0 0 28 0 16 44 Pagán 18 0 9 15 0 42 Paddack 0 0 0 39 0 39 Alcala 0 0 0 0 39 39 Stewart 0 0 25 0 5 30 Thielbar 18 0 3 9 0 30 Jax 8 0 0 19 0 27 Durán 14 0 0 11 0 25 Varland 0 19 0 0 0 19

With the wild card round being just a three-game series, there is no reason for starters that won’t pitch in relief to be on the roster. That could certainly include the likes of Kenta Maeda or Bailey Ober, but takes Dallas Keuchel out of the equation. Needing a few fewer players, Rocco Baldelli should have something like 15 position players on his roster. The bench will be deeper than it has been all season, and that provides ample opportunity to pinch hit, make defensive changes, or insert a pinch runner. Here’s a look at the names that could be included: Kyle Farmer If there’s an infielder that seems certain to start on the bench, it’s Farmer. He’s not the priority anywhere on the dirt, and really the only path he has to a start is if Carlos Correa can’t go because of his heel issue. Farmer was brought in to be the Twins shortstop before they were able to bring Correa back into the fold. As a right-handed hitter, he hasn’t shown well against lefties. That’s basically been where he has made a living thus far as a hitter, but his slugging percentage is lower there than against left-handed pitchers. Baldelli could do a lot worse in pinch-hitting or replacement spots, but Farmer isn’t going to start on the dirt. Donovan Solano Depending on the opposing starter, Solano could find himself in the starting lineup. He makes some sense at designated hitter, and he has played plenty at both first and second base. The chalk moves would involve Alex Kirilloff, Edouard Julien, and Jorge Polanco, but Minnesota will respond to the opposition. Signed as somewhat of a last addition to the roster, Solano has been nothing short of exceptional for the Twins in his role. He bounced back from somewhat of a down year with the Reds last year, and currently owns a 112 OPS+. He has hit for average, and he has gotten on base. Both of those things aren’t consistent throughout the Minnesota lineup. No matter how he gets into a game, Solano being an additional option for the Twins in the playoffs is a huge boost. Willi Castro Similar to Solano, Castro was an afterthought pickup and has elevated himself to being one of the most integral contributors on the team. Signed to a minor league deal back in December, Castro has seen time both in the infield and outfield. There’s a chance he could start in center for Minnesota, but that probably means Michael A. Taylor experienced a setback. This season it has been Castro leading the Twins on the base paths. He has stolen a career-best 31 bases, and he has had significant success picking his spots to go. With an ability to advance 90-feet, even if Castro isn’t in a starting lineup, he can impact a game for Baldelli. Castro also brings handedness flexibility to the bench in that he’s a switch hitter. Baldelli has turned to him in key pitching scenarios, and also used him as a defensive replacement. Andrew Stevenson Promoted from Triple-A St. Paul following one of his best years in professional baseball, Stevenson largely got an opportunity with the Twins because he can run. Stevenson has won a World Series playing with the Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer, and Juan Soto Washington Nationals, but the veteran still brings plenty to the table as a fringe talent. An adept defender in all three outfield spots, Stevenson would be an ideal late-game replacement for someone like Matt Wallner or Castro. He isn’t someone that you want at the plate, but with 48 steals on 54 attempts in pro ball this year, he’s almost a guaranteed bet to swipe a bag. Probably the least likely name here to be included on the postseason roster, Stevenson’s opportunity revolves solely around defense and running. Christian Vazquez For most of the season Minnesota has gone with a near 50/50 split behind the plate with their catchers. Vazquez was brought in as the trusted veteran, but Ryan Jeffers has had a breakout performance and pushed for more playing time. In the playoffs, Vazquez’s pedigree and previous experience could be a big boost. The former Red Sox and Astros backstop has a pair of World Series rings to his credit, and while he’s not much of a hitter, he’s always been well respected as a defender. Vazquez has played 31 games in the playoffs and has a pair of home runs to his credit as well. In a short series, both Vazquez and Jeffers should be expected to catch a game apiece. Byron Buxton There's almost no scenario in which Buxton starts a game in the outfield for Minnesota. He was limited to just seven innings in center field when trying to rehab with the Saints, and despite playing in a simulated game at Target Field on Wednesday, his availability is still a massive question mark. He won't be given the designated hitter spot after scuffling at the plate, and Royce Lewis may need the role given his hamstring injury that sidelined him for the final week of the season. Should the Twins feel confident that Buxton can bring something to the postseason roster, his inclusion will likely be in the form of a right-handed pinch hitter. That would be a substantial bat off the bench against either a righty or lefty, but only because we have seen what he is capable of. The production hasn't been there for quite some time this season, and coming back off such a lengthy stint on the injured list makes his expectations worthy of being tempered at best. Other options to come off the Twins bench would include Nick Gordon, Trevor Larnach, and Joey Gallo. Minor leaguers such as Austin Martin and Brooks Lee aren't going to be called upon at this point. None of them seem entirely likely though, and giving Baldelli this group to work with should be plenty. How do you feel the Twins bench stacks up to the competition? Is there someone you’d like to see added that isn’t here?

Headlined by experienced veterans and prized young players, the Minnesota Twins infield is a blend of youth and experience. While there is uncertainty about how the Twins infield will be aligned for Game One of the upcoming three-game Wild Card series beginning October 3, the Twins infield options provide a sense of steadiness that is ever so important come playoff time. Let's begin by looking at how the Twins align behind the plate. Christian Vázquez - .221/.278/.321 (.599), 65 wRC+, 0.8 fWAR - Catcher We begin analyzing the Twins' infield by focusing on catcher/first baseman Christian Vázquez. Signed to a three-year, $30 million contract this prior off-season, Vázquez was expected to be the Twins' primary catcher for the 2023 season, but early season struggles at the plate ceded Vázquez's playing time to fellow catcher Ryan Jeffers. While Vázquez has been demoted to backup duties, he is still a more-than-serviceable catcher, and while he was never able to catch his footing offensively, he has been an elite defensive catcher all season. Vázquez will almost certainly serve as Jeffers' backup in Game 1 of the upcoming three-game Wild Card series, though a recent development has many wondering whether that will be the case. It will be interesting to see if Vázquez starts Game 1 or Game 2, and if the Twins advance past the Wild Card round, it will be fascinating to see how the Twins divvy up playing time at catcher. Ryan Jeffers - .270/.367/.474 (.841), 134 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR - Catcher The second member of the American League Central-winning Minnesota Twins infield comes in the form of catcher Ryan Jeffers. As noted earlier, Jeffers began the second playing second fiddle to initial starting catcher Vázquez but quickly supplanted him as the Twins' best catching option. Highlighted by an offensive resurgence, Twins' Comeback Player of the Year candidate Jeffers has solidified himself as one of the Twins' core young players for seasons to come. Jeffers, who has hit 13 home runs this season in 321 plate appearances, has added a jolt from a traditionally offensively deprived position that had been missing since Mitch Garver's departure after the 2021 season. Jeffers will make a start at catcher during the three-game Wild Card series, but whether it is in Game One or Game Two has surprisingly become unclear. If Jeffers doesn't start Game One at catcher, expect him to be used as a pinch-hitter if the opposing team elects to use a left-handed relief pitcher. Alex Kirilloff - .268/.346/.446 (.792), 119 wRC+, 0.8 fWAR - First Baseman Since being the last first-round selection of the Terry Ryan regime in 2016, Twins fans have been entranced by the idea of Kirilloff and the potential that comes with him. Unfortunately, due to a nagging wrist injury that effectively sidelined Kirilloff for two straight seasons, Kirilloff has existed more as an idea rather than in actuality. Luckily, Kirilloff, despite missing the month of August with a right shoulder strain, is back and healthy just in time for the 2023 postseason. Kirilloff will likely start every game at first base and bat toward the top of the order for the Twins as long as the opposing team's starting pitcher is right-handed. Whether manager Rocco Baldelli would bench Kirilloff during the postseason in favor of platooning a right-handed hitting dominant lineup if an opposing team's starting pitcher is left-handed is yet to be seen. However, it is an interesting proposition nonetheless. Kirilloff is the type of talent whose play can lead a team during the postseason, and his mere presence in the Twins lineup creates a great sense of confidence that the daunting 0-18 playoff streak may finally end this October. Donovan Solano - .286/.371/.401 (.772), 119 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR - First Baseman, Second Baseman, Third Baseman, Designated Hitter The next player on this list is 35-year-old platoon utility player Donovan Solano. Despite being labeled a utility player, which he was during the regular season, Solano will likely either start at first base or designated hitter if the opposing team's starting pitcher is left-handed or will work as a pinch hitter whenever a left-handed relief pitcher comes in. Solano's role is cemented for the most part, but it will be interesting to see if he is the first or second pinch-hitter used when a left-handed hitting relief pitcher comes in. As noted earlier, when the opposing team's starting pitcher is left-handed, it will be interesting to see if Baldelli elects to start Solano over Kirilloff at first base or if he elects to start Solano at designated hitter. Solano's value comes from his bat, but he can be used as an emergency second or third baseman if the Twins find themselves lacking infield depth later in a postseason game. Jorge Polanco - .258/.339/.461 (.800), 121 wRC+, 1.5 fWAR - Second Baseman, Third Baseman Fan favorite Jorge Polanco will play a vital role for the Twins and whether or not they can find any form of success this postseason. Polanco hit a first-inning home run against the New York Yankees in Game 1 of the ALDS at Yankee Stadium, so it appears that Polanco is not one to crumble under the immense pressure that is postseason baseball. Expect Polanco to start every game at second base, as he is both a plus defender and a switch-hitter, making him immune to platooning. Once again, it cannot be overstated how crucial of a role the traditionally underrated Polanco will play for the Twins and their postseason success. Polanco has long been an underrated core member of the Twins, and hopefully, he can provide a signature moment that will cement himself in Twins lore infamy. Edouard Julien - .259/.379/.442 (.821), 131 wRC+, 2.4 fWAR - Second Baseman, Designated Hitter, First Baseman The next Twins infielder is Twins Rookie of the Year Candidate and proud French Canadian Edouard Julien. The kid from Québec City jumped onto the scene for the Twins this season and instantly won the hearts of Twins fans from International Falls down to Lanesboro. Julien is a left-handed hitting infielder who primarily played second base and designated hitter for the Twins, with first base sprinkled in occasionally. When the three-game Wild Card round begins on October 3, expect Julien to bat leadoff as the Twins designated as long as the opposing team's starting pitcher is right-handed. Julien is susceptible to platooning, so if a left-handed relief pitcher comes into the game, don't be surprised if he is pinch-hit for. Whether Julien can step up to the moment is yet to be seen. Still, he has already shown he can perform well on the world's brightest stage after putting together an admirable performance during the World Baseball Classic for Team Canada this past March. Julien and his unfathomable walk-rate will be the straw that stirs the drink for the Twins at the top of their order, and expect Julien to be the first Twins hitter to make an appearance in the batter's box come October 3. Royce Lewis - .309/.372/.548 (.920), 154 wRC+, 2.4 fWAR - Third Baseman, Shortstop, Designated Hitter Clouded with uncertainty due to a grade "one-and-a-half" left hamstring strain, it is unknown whether star young plater Royce Lewis will be on the Twins Wild Card series roster. It is too soon to speculate, but everything that has come out about Lewis appears to indicate that he will be active come October 3. If Lewis is active on the Twins Wild Card 26-man roster, it would be reasonable to think he would be the Twins' starting third baseman. However, there is also the possibility that the Twins activate Lewis but limit him to designated hitter or pinch-hitting duties. Whether Lewis will be on the Twins Wild Card roster is yet to be seen. Regardless, he is undoubtedly the type of player who is built for October, and it would be a shame if Lewis, the Twins, and Twins fans were deprived of experiencing his potential postseason greatness. Kyle Farmer - .254/.316/.411 (.727), 101 wRC+, 1.7 fWAR - Second Baseman, Third Baseman, Shortstop Farmer is the type of player who is incredibly important at playoff time. It would be absurd to suggest his postseason roster spot be taken by someone who never played in a Major League Baseball game before, right? Combining veteran leadership, a stable locker room presence, versatility, and a steady bat, Farmer is set to play a crucial role for the Twins this upcoming October, even if it is still being determined exactly how he will do that. If Lewis cannot play during the Wild Card round, Farmer could seamlessly slot in as the Twins starting third baseman. If Lewis can play, which we all hope is the case, Farmer could slot into a pinch-hitting and defensive substitution role, which he has done all season. Nonetheless, whether Farmer shows up in the Twins starting lineup or in the sixth inning of a close game, expect him to contribute positively to the Twins and their playoff aspirations. Willi Castro - .251/.326/.412 (.738), 104 wRC+, 2.1 fWAR - Second Baseman, Third Baseman, Shortstop To label Castro as an infielder is controversial, but it feels appropriate to do so with Lewis's availability for the Wild Card round still up in the air. If Lewis cannot play come October 3, there is a chance that Castro could start Game 1 at third base, though Farmer still feels like the more likely option. Castro's value in the postseason will come from his positional flexibility, pristine base-running ability, and ability to provide heroics in crucial spots. If Lewis is healthy, Castro will likely exclusively play in the outfield. Regardless, with Lewis's status up in the air, it would be negligent not to mention Castro as an infield option. Carlos Correa - .230/.312/.399 (.711), 96 wRC+, 1.1 fWAR - Shortstop The final Twins infielder on this list comes from postseason legend and World Series champion Carlos Correa. Here are Correa's past postseason numbers with the Houston Astros: .272/.344/.505 (.849), 79 total games, 334 plate appearances, 82 hits, 16 doubles, 18 home runs, 30 walks, 79 strikeouts Now, Correa's World Series championship with the 2017 Astros comes with a very obvious caveat, but he has a ring nonetheless. Correa has battled plantar fasciitis in his foot all season. While the injury has led to him putting together his worst offensive season in his Major League career, a recent development in Correa's bout with plantar fasciitis has led to fans developing a newfound sense for Correa and his potential offensive contributions for the Twins come October. On September 20, Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com announced that Correa suffered a "full-thickness tear to the central cortex of the area (his foot)" and that the tear "has helped others facilitate the healing process." While much is still up in the air regarding Correa's health, expect him to be the Twins starting shortstop come Game 1 of the Wild Card series on October 3. Although Correa has an immense amount of postseason experience under his belt, this will be his first postseason experience as a member of the Twins. Hopefully, Correa can provide the same level of play he provided for the Astros. Heading into their first postseason appearance since 2020, the Twins are a versatility team that effectively blends young talent with experienced veterans, and the infield is a prime example of that phenomenon. What do you think of the Twins postseason infield? Do you have faith in them stepping up to the occasion? Comment below.

Box Score: Starting Pitcher: Sonny Gray: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K (93 pitches, 61 Strikes, 65.6%) Home Runs: None Bottom 3 WPA: Edouard Julien (-.229), Matt Wallner (-.120), Trevor Larnach (-.107) Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs): The day after a thrilling night in which the Twins clinched the Central Division and celebrated appropriately, Sonny Gray took the mound in front of a "hangover" lineup opposing the hapless Angels. The kids would call this a "scheduled loss," and that seemed apt with Andrew Stevenson leading off despite facing a lefty starter, Jordan Luplow playing first base, and Kyle Farmer hitting cleanup. Gray started strong, however. His breaking pitches had some good bite on them, which is a good indication that Gray would be in command and deliver a quality outing. Occasionally Gray will start throwing backup breaking balls and get forced into throwing fastballs just to stay in counts- it has been a few months since we've seen that, fortunately. His breaking stuff, particularly the sweeper, was in prime form this afternoon. Opposing Gray was Kenny Rosenberg, a soft-tossing lefty probably best suited for Triple-A work. The Twins first two batters, Andrew Stevenson and Donovan Solano, struck out. But Edouard Julien walked, Kyle Farmer singled and Michael A. Taylor walked to load the bases. Matt Wallner worked the count to 3-2 before flying out to end the frame. The Twins continued to put runners on base, but couldn't push anything across through the first three innings. Gray cruised through three innings, getting a lot of called strikes on breaking pitches and keeping the Angels off balance. Jo Adell, the Angels center-fielder and a former top ten global prospect with prodigious raw power (that he has had trouble getting to thus far), absolutely crushed a Gray fastball into the bullpen to start the fourth. Gray quickly set down the next three batters, but all of a sudden the Twins were facing a deficit against Rosenberg. Christian Vazquez got his second single of the game with one out in the fourth inning, and Trevor Larnach followed with a rocket to right-center. The ball died on the warning track, surprising the broadcast crew, and Jordan Luplow quickly popped out to end the frame. That sequence defined the Twins results against Rosenberg, who ultimately Dallas Keuchel'd his way through five scoreless innings. The strength of this depleted Angels roster may be its relief pitching. Jimmy "The Human Glitch" Herget pitched a scoreless sixth, and flame-throwing rookie Ben Joyce pitched a quick seventh. Jose Soriano was bailed out by a tremendous defensive play from shortstop David Fletcher in the eighth. After Solano was hit by a pitch, Julien hit a 106 MPH smash up the middle that Fletcher somehow managed to glove and flip to second, almost behind his back. Julien was retired for the double play, still not running hard as he works through his hamstring issues. Closer Carlos Estévez began the ninth inning by smoking Farmer on the elbow, but struck out Taylor and Wallner before getting Vazquez to fly out to end the game. The good: Kyle Farmer continues to blister the baseball, and with his second hit of the game in the third inning, made it on base in seven of eight plate appearances. He will be a key part of any Twins attack against a lefty in the playoffs, and if Carlos Correa and/or Royce Lewis are unavailable, he would slot in for either. He looks to be getting hot at the right time. For good measure, he gunned down Nolan Schanuel at the plate on a relay in the eighth to keep the score 1-0. Gray was electric, allowing four hits while striking out eight. Outside of the one fastball to Adell, he looks ready to dominate in the playoffs. The bad: Donovan Solano has struggled of late, hitting .220 in September thus far. He started the game with a strikeout, ground out and double play grounder. Jordan Luplow looked pretty rough at first base, with a misplay in the second resulting in a throwing error being charged to Solano. What’s Next: Joe Ryan (10-10, 4.30 ERA) goes against Tyler Anderson (6-6, 5.43) as the Twins look to take the series against the Angels. It will be a good chance for Ryan to build confidence against a struggling lineup as he auditions for the number three slot in the postseason rotation. Anderson was a big offseason pickup for the Angels, coming off a sub 3.00 ERA season with the Dodgers. The ability is there, and he is a lefty, so the Twins will have to lock in to defeat him. Postgame Interviews: Bullpen Usage Chart: TUE WED THU FRI SAT TOT Winder 0 29 0 0 35 64 Durán 0 21 0 34 0 55 Thielbar 16 0 0 20 0 36 Funderburk 20 0 0 0 0 20 Pagán 8 0 0 0 10 18 Jax 0 17 0 0 0 17 Floro 16 0 0 0 1 17 Varland 0 0 0 11 0 11 Keuchel 0 0 0 0 0 0

The postseason is an exciting time for everyone involved. As we get closer to October 3, a sense of nervousness, excitement, and cautious optimism is beginning to blanket the Land of 10,000 Lakes, or Rakes I suppose, as the Twins are set to make their first playoff appearance since getting swept by the Houston Astros in the 2020 playoffs. The playoffs, especially those that have occurred after 2002, tend to bring an overwhelming amount of negative memories to Twins fans, so it is no surprise that fans are doing their best not to get overly optimistic and attempting to avoid every possible jinx there is. On the other hand, the playoffs have brought the two best moments in Minnesota men's professional sports history when the Twins won the World Series in 1987 and 1991. Nevertheless, the postseason is soon coming, and there is reason to celebrate and find joy in the fortunate position the Twins find themselves in. The postseason not only provides strong emotions to those who experience it from an outside perspective but also to those taking part in it. Aaron Gleeman and Dan Hayes of The Athletic recently wrote an article that projected the Twins' 26-man playoff roster for the upcoming three-game Wild Card Series that begins on October 3. In their roster projections, the Twins look to assemble a group that blends both young talent and savvy, experienced veterans. The Twins have a unique roster, and while this upcoming postseason will be the first for many young Twins players, a handful of veterans on the team possess ample playoff experience. While it is up for debate how important playoff experience is, it is vital to note who has been there and who should be counted on to take a leadership role in times of crisis and glory. So, which current Twins have past playoff experience? Before we begin, let's note who is projected to make their postseason debut. Twins Who Will Be Making Their Postseason Debut Infielders: Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien Prized young players Lewis and Julien will make their postseason debuts this October. Although these two have never been in the postseason, they will play critical roles in the outcome of the Twins playoff games this year. Expect Lewis and Julien to hit at the top of the Twins roster as long as the opposing team's starting pitcher is right-handed. The postseason is where legends are made, and if a high-intensity moment arises with one of these young players at the plate, a new moment in modern Twins canon could arise. Outfielders: Matt Wallner, Willi Castro Admittedly, this group of young players is less exciting than Lewis and Julien, but they will undoubtedly play key roles for the Twins this upcoming postseason. Expect Wallner to start in left field if the opposing starting pitcher throws right-handed, and Castro will play a crucial late-inning role as both a pinch runner and defensive substitution. Castro could also start in center field, depending on the matchup. While Wallner and Castro aren't the faces of the team, they will be necessary components as to whether the Twins will be able to experience postseason success or not. Starters: Joe Ryan Of the three potential Wild Card Series starters, Ryan is the only one yet to make a postseason start. Ryan's spot on the Twins' postseason roster was in flux earlier this season, but since returning from the 15-day IL, Ryan has appeared to solidify himself as the Twins' third starter for the playoffs. While part of that is due to the Twins' other starting pitching options struggling as of late, Ryan has shown signs of regaining form, and he should be trusted if a winner takes all Game Three arises. While avoiding a Game Three would be in the Twins' best interest, the Twins would be in a favorable position with Ryan as their potential starter. Relievers: Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Louie Varland, Brock Stewart, Kody Funderburk This is where things get questionable. While most of these relievers are used to high-leverage situations, the postseason is an entirely different experience. If the Twins find themselves holding a one-run lead in the eighth inning of a playoff game, will Jax, Varland, or potentially Stewart be able to hold the lead? If they can, will Duran be able to close the game out? It is impossible to answer that question; we can only wait and see. Nonetheless, the Twins' postseason success could hinge upon the bullpen's ability to hold leads, and the Twins will be relying upon a relatively inexperienced group to do so. Ten of the Twins' potential postseason roster members have never experienced the postseason. While this can be concerning, especially with the bullpen, there is little reason to suggest that inexperience will hamper their performance. Young players like Lewis, Julien, Wallner, Ryan, Duran, Varland, and potentially Castro and Funderburk will be members of the Twins core for seasons to come, and watching them contribute in what is hopefully the first of many postseasons as members of the Twins should bring a sense of both excitement and optimism. Now that we have identified who will make their postseason debuts let's look at who has prior postseason experience. Catchers: Christian Vázquez, Ryan Jeffers Vázquez - .250/.296/.337 (.633), 31 total games, 99 plate appearances, 23 hits, two doubles, two home runs, five walks, 23 strikeouts Jeffers - .000/.000/.000 (.000), two total games, five plate appearances, zero hits, zero walks, two strikeouts To start off the Twins with prior playoff experience section, we begin with the two projected catchers on the postseason roster. At first glance, the first thing that pops out is how much more experience Vázquez has compared to Jeffers. Vázquez has been on multiple deep postseason runs and has won two World Series, one with the Boston Red Sox in 2019 and one with the Houston Astros in 2022, and Jeffers played in two games in the 2020 playoffs. Although Vázquez has more experience and has played integral roles in Worlds Series-winning teams, Jeffers is undoubtedly the better player. Jeffers will almost certainly get the Game One start. Whether Vázquez starts Game Two is yet to be seen, but how the Twins use their catchers in the postseason will be an interesting case to monitor. Infielders: Carlos Correa, Jorge Polanco, Alex Kirilloff, Kyle Farmer, Donovan Solano Correa - .272/.344/.505 (.849), 79 total games, 334 plate appearances, 82 hits, 16 doubles, 18 home runs, 30 walks, 79 strikeouts Polanco - .227/.370/.364 (.734), six total games, 27 plate appearances, five hits, zero doubles, one home run, four walks, five strikeouts Kirilloff - .250/.250/.250 (.500), one total game, four plate appearances, one hit, zero doubles, zero home runs, zero walks, zero strikeouts Farmer - .000/.000/.000 (.000), six total games, ten plate appearances, zero hits, zero walks, four strikeouts Solano - .000/.000/.000 (.000), five total games, nine plate appearances, zero hits, zero walks, three strikeouts The Twins infielders with prior playoff experience list is highlighted by one of the greatest postseason performers in Major League Baseball history in Correa. In his seven seasons with the Astros, Correa participated in three different World Series, with his one championship coming in 2017. Now, that championship has an obvious asterisk, but partaking in three World Series in seven years is impressive, no matter the circumstances. Kirilloff made his Twins debut in the 2020 playoffs and hit a single to right field in one of his four plate appearances, but he is essentially as experienced as the young players who have yet to make their postseason debuts. While Polanco, Farmer, and Solano have playoff experience, they have minimal at-bats and little to show. These three players shouldn't be judged based on their prior postseason experience, as all three cases are such small sample sizes, and it is reasonable to expect them to contribute for the Twins come October. Outfielders: Max Kepler, Michael A. Taylor, Andrew Stevenson, Byron Buxton *Note: Gleeman and Hayes initially had Jordan Luplow making the postseason roster, but he was designated for assignment on September 18. Kepler - .056/.320/.111 (.431), six total games, 25 plate appearances, one hit, one double, zero home runs, seven walks, four strikeouts Taylor - .316/.395/.632 (1.027), 16 total games, 43 plate appearances, 12 hits, zero doubles, four home runs, four walks, 13 strikeouts Stevenson - .000/.000/.000 (.000), one game, zero plate appearances, zero hits, zero walks, zero strikeouts, one run scored Buxton - .167/.167/.167 (.333), three total games, six plate appearances, one hit, zero doubles, zero home runs, zero walks, four strikeouts The first player that jumps out on this list is Taylor. During the Washington Nationals impressive 2019 World Series run, Taylor played an integral role on that team. Taylor also had prior experience in the postseason with the Bryce Harper-led Nationals teams that seemingly could never make it past the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Taylor has encouraging postseason numbers, and hopefully, he can replicate those numbers for the Twins this upcoming October. Stevenson has very minimal postseason experience, but he was a teammate of Taylor on the Nationals team that won the World Series in 2019. Stevenson pinch-ran for the Nationals in the notorious Wild Card game against the Milwaukee Brewers at Nationals Park but didn't play in the Divisional Round, Championship Round, or World Series. If Stevenson makes the Twins playoff roster, he will be used exclusively as a pinch-runner and defensive substitution. Stevenson could provide speed alongside fellow outfielders Castro, Taylor, and Buxton, which is a crucially important skillset to have in the postseason. Starters: Pablo López, Sonny Gray López - 3.60 ERA, 0.60 WHIP, 12.60 K/9, 0.00 BB/9, one game, five innings pitched, 19 total batters faced, three hits, two home runs, three earned runs, zero walks, seven strikeouts Gray - 2.95 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 7.59 K/9, 5.06 BB/9, four games, 21.1 innings pitched, 90 total batters faced, 14 hits, two home runs, seven earned runs, 12 walks, 18 strikeouts López and Gray have put up respectable numbers in their limited postseason starts. López made one start for the Miami Marlins during the 2020 playoffs, and Gray made two starts for the Oakland Athletics in 2013 and two starts for the New York Yankees in 2017. López and Gray will be the Twins' one-two punch for as long as they are in the playoffs, and much of the team's success will be contingent upon their performances. López and Gray's previous postseason outings are encouraging and should provide a sense of confidence in Twins fan. Relievers: Emilio Pagán, Kenta Maeda, Caleb Thielbar, Chris Paddack Pagán - 2.25 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 5.63 K/9, 4.50 BB/9, nine appearances, eight innings pitched, 36 total batters faced, seven hits, two home runs, two earned runs, four walks, five strikeouts Maeda - 2.87 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 10.51 K/9, 3.58 BB/9, 25 appearances, 37 2/3 innings pitched, 159 total batters faced, 29 hits, two home runs, 12 earned runs, two walks, 44 strikeouts Thielbar - 0.00 ERA, 3.00 WHIP, 0.00 K/9, 0.00 BB/9, one appearance, 1/3 innings pitched, two total batters faced, one hit, zero home runs, zero earned runs, zero walks, zero strikeouts Paddack - 23.14 ERA, 3.43 WHIP, 3.86 K/9, 0.00 BB/9, one appearance, 2 1/3 innings pitched, 15 total batters faced, eight hits, one home run, six earned runs, zero walks, one strikeout The reliever that jumps out from this group is Maeda. During his time with the Los Angeles Dodgers from 2016-2019, Maeda started three playoff games but primarily pitched in relief for them in the postseason. Maeda was dominant as a reliever, generating a 1.63 ERA over 22 innings pitched in the playoffs from 2017-2019. While it is unfair to expect that type of dominance this time around for Maeda as a reliever, there is reason to expect the Twins to use him as a high-leverage reliever this upcoming postseason. Thielbar made one postseason appearance with the Twins in 2020, but has faced essentially the bare minimum. Thielbar will be in the mix as the main set-up pitcher along with Jax, Varland, and Pagân. It will be interesting to see who the Twins decide to use as their top set-up pitcher if they have a one or two run lead in the eighth inning. Págan has performed well in the playoffs, and it is reasonable to expect the Twins to use him in a mid-to-high-leverage role as they did during the regular season. Paddack made one playoff start for the San Diego Padres during the 2020 season and had an implosive outing where he gave up six earned runs in 2 1/3 innings pitched. Although Paddack had one subpar start three years ago, there is no reason to think Paddack couldn't provide value as a stretch reliever or mid-to-high leverage short reliever. The Twins projected 2023 playoff roster is an amalgamation of young players hoping to make a name for themselves on baseball's brightest stage and experienced veterans hoping to contribute to a potential World Series-winning team. What do you make of the young Twins players making their postseason debuts? What do you think of veteran players with prior playoff experience? Who do you expect to step up for the Twins in October? Comment below.

Like many teams, the Twins focused on improving base running this spring, including bringing in former manager Paul Molitor to provide instruction. It would be great if coaching and strategy could help a team improve on the base paths, but a team can't make giant strides without the appropriate personnel. Slow baserunners will continue to be slow baserunners, which has held true for Minnesota this season. Last week, FanGraphs ran through the players who get the least from their base running, and the Twins were featured prominently in the piece. The site uses a metric called Base Running (BsR) that includes stolen bases, caught stealing, and other base running plays (taking extra bases, being thrown out on the bases, etc.) into runs above and below average. The Twins have multiple players who rank poorly on the base paths, including some that may be surprising. Here are the team's five worst base runners. 5. Jose Miranda, 3B Base Running: -1.5 The Twins expected Miranda to play a pivotal role during the 2023 campaign, but a shoulder injury limited him to 40 games. Even in limited action, Miranda's poor base running was in full effect. Last season, he finished with a -4.5 BsR, ranking fourth worst on the Twins. He would rank significantly higher on this list if he played more games this season. Minnesota moved Miranda to the 60-day IL over the last week, so he won't get to improve his baserunning until the 2024 campaign. 4. Donovan Solano, UTL Base Running: -2.4 Solano has been integral to the Twins' line-up this season, hitting .294/.379/.411 (.790) with 24 doubles and five home runs. His 117 OPS+ is the second-highest total of his career. Despite a solid offensive season, Solano is among the team's worst base runners. Last season, he posted a -2.0 BsR in 80 games for the Reds, and his 2023 BsR total is the second lowest of his career. 3. Max Kepler, OF Base Running: -4.4 Kepler looks the part of a player who would be a strong base runner, including having a sprint speed in the 54th percentile. However, Baseball Savant ranks him in the 10th percentile for baserunning value, which is worth -2 runs. Kepler has yet to steal a base this season, and he's had limited opportunities to take an extra base. In previous seasons, Kepler has been an above-average runner, so his early season leg injuries might have hampered his overall numbers. 2. Christian Vazquez, C Base Running: -4.1 Catchers typically fill up the rankings of baseball's worst base runners, and Vazquez is no exception. Over the last two seasons, Vazquez has been baseball's least valuable baserunner by accumulating -14.0 BsR. According to Baseball Savant, he ranks in the second percentile for baserunning value and in the fifth percentile, which has cost the Twins three runs this season. His sprint speed is in the ninth percentile, so few runners are slower than Vazquez on the base paths. 1. Carlos Correa, SS Base Running: -7.7 Over the weekend, Carlos Correa set the team record by hitting into the most double plays in one season. He's been the team's worst base runner during the 2023 season, and only Vazquez has ranked worse than Correa over the last two seasons. Correa has dealt with plantar fasciitis throughout the season, which might have added to his poor baserunning. He has also been very aware of how slow he has been this season when talking to reporters. Correa has been undeniably slow, impacting the team throughout the season. How would you rank the Twins' worst baserunners? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

Box Score Starting Pitcher: Sonny Gray - 6 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 4 K (101 Pitches, 66 Strikes, 65% Strikes) Home Runs: Christian Vazquez (6) Bottom WPA: Willi Castro (.312), Christian Vazquez (.297), Carlos Correa (.088) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) The Twins faced an unusual challenge on Tuesday night in Cleveland. How does one go from facing a third-string catcher for four innings of the 20-6 victory on Monday, to facing a Cy Young candidate the very next day? When the season is on the line, but isn't really, but kinda is...would the Twins respond like a team that deserves a playoff opportunity, or a team that can't bring a consistent attack to the field night in and night out? The Art of the Two Out Rally The top of the first inning started innocently and meekly enough, with Tanner Bibee retiring the first two Twins easily. Bibee wanted no part of Royce Lewis, however, and walked him on four pitches. Max Kepler decided that a pitcher should be punished for that kind of disrespect. The Twins weren't done there, as Carlos Correa continued his recent line drive exploits, singling in Kepler to put the Twins up 2-0. This stretch of 7-3 baseball has displayed a new-found flavor for not giving up on an inning, as the Twins continue to put up crooked numbers against starting pitching with two outs in an inning. The Art of Going to the Well One Too Many Times Sonny Gray cruised through his first two innings of work, but after surrendering a lead off single to Will Brennan, Gray found himself trying to get back on track against slugger Bo Naylor. Gray was able to sneak a fastball by Naylor right down Broadway to advance the count to 0-2, but he through the same pitch in the same spot with his next attempt, and Naylor parked it 389 feet to right-center to even up the score at two apiece. The Art of the Poorly Timed Strike Out In the second inning, the Twins had opportunity to strike again and add to their lead, but with runners at second and third with one out, Edouard Julien struck out, and the runner at third never made it home. In the fifth inning, Polanco led off and missed a home run by inches, but ended up at second base, and then advanced to third on a Lewis single. Again with one out and a runner at third, the Twins were in perfect position to re-take the lead. Kepler again strode to the plate, but this time he struck out swinging at a ball above his ears, and once again the runner at third stayed stranded. Juxtapose this with Cleveland's bottom of the fifth inning, where they advanced a leadoff double by Gabriel Arias to third with one out, and then Myles Straw choked up on two strikes and fought off a fly ball deep enough to to plate Arias on a tag to take the lead at 3-2. The Christian Vazquez Redemption Story Begins Tonight? The Guardians bullpen got the call to enter in the top of the sixth, with the left-hander Matt Moore starting the evening's wave of managing. Rocco Baldelli countered with pinch-hitting Jordan Luplow for Matt Wallner (and thus removing his bat for the entire game), and Luplow promptly struck out. Before Twins fans had time to release the appropriate expletive, Vazquez stepped up and unleashed an opposite field bomb to tie the game at three apiece. A Willi Castro single and a Kyle Farmer double later, and the Twins were right back in position to score with a runner on third and one out. Polanco worked a full count, and then... struck out swinging. This deflating narrative of the Twins offensive performance in a pivotal game continued, with Lewis also striking out to end the threat. Now the expletives focused themselves towards the "coulda, woulda, shoulda" aspect of this game. Will the Missed Opportunities Come Back to Haunt the Twins? Some Guardians familiar faces put immediate heat back on Gray, with Jose Ramirez and Kole Calhoun singling their way to first and third with only one out. Andres Gimenez found himself in the prime at-bat, and Gray fought him pitch after pitch to strike Gimenez out, and retire Arias after him to escape the jam. Bullpens took over for good after that, and Reynaldo Lopez hoped to have a better first impression as a waiver wire hero for the Guardians than Giolito did the night before. He did. Griffin Jax took his turn in the seventh for the Twins, and he did well. Trevor Stephan of the Guardians found no such luck in the top of the eighth inning, however, when the Vazquez redemption tour led off with a single, and Castro roped a double to once again place runners at second and third with nobody out. It was Farmer's turn to come up in the "do not strike out" spot, and he struck out. Polanco came up next, trying to cash in where he failed earlier in the game. Things looked bleak as Polanco fell behind 0-2, and expletive's once again were locked and loaded, but Twins Territory let out a collective sigh of relief as Polanco made just enough contact to the outfield to drive in pinch-runner Joey Gallo to re-take the lead 4-3. Stephan then walked Lewis and Kepler to load the bases, and sent a pitch to the backstop to make it 5-3. Correa got hit by a pitch, and then the bases were loaded yet again for Donovan Solano. And he delivered! What began as an "oh no, not again" Twins offensive inning, became a laugher that was sending fans home early. With a five run lead, the Twins turned to Caleb Thielbar and Emilio Pagan took turns quieting the Guardian's bats, and the Twins looked every bit the part of a team that is destined for a playoff appearance. Up-to-Date Standings Post-Game Interviews What’s Next? The Twins look to win the season series with a sweep of the Guardians on Wednesday. This game carries extra weight, as its worth an extra game in the standings either way due to the elimination of Game 163 in the new playoff alignment. Twins starter Joe Ryan (10-8, 4.20 ERA) will look to avenge his two earlier quality start losses against the Guardians. He will face Cleveland rookie RHP Gavin Williams (1-5, 3.46 ERA), who hasn't pitched since he got pulled due to injury after one inning versus the Twins last week. First pitch is scheduled for 12:10pm CDT. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet FRI SAT SUN MON TUES TOT Headrick 0 15 0 46 0 61 Pagán 0 24 0 0 12 36 Jax 11 7 0 0 17 35 Durán 9 21 0 0 0 30 Thielbar 8 6 0 0 10 24 Funderburk 0 9 14 0 0 23 Floro 0 8 0 14 0 22 Winder 0 6 5 0 0 11 Varland 0 0 0 0 0 0

Box Score Joe Ryan: 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 K Home Runs: Jordan Luplow (2), Christian Vázquez (5), Jorge Polanco (11) Top 3 WPA: Jordan Luplow (.356), Joe Ryan (.172), Christian Vázquez (.085) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) It was Joe Ryan vs Max Scherzer, again. The two matched up last Saturday in Minnesota, resulting in a Texas win after the Rangers jumped on the Twins bullpen in the 9th inning. It was their only win of the series. Friday was more of the same; the two starters were on their game, earning whiffs and frustrated looks from hitters as they confounded and dazzled all day. Scherzer had his vintage form. Every pitch worked. When hitters expected the fastball, he snuck in a breaker. And vice versa. The Twins pushed a runner to second base on a few separate occasions, but it never really mattered; Scherzer always clamped down on the potential rally, making hitters prefer the un-embarrassing fortress of the dugout rather than the mockery-inducing batter’s box. Ryan matched him. There’s less of a guessing game with him—you’re getting a fastball; good luck hitting it—but Rangers batters looked silly nonetheless. He diced through an elite Texas lineup, earning seven strikeouts with only three hits allowed. But, naturally, one of those hits was a homer. Corey Seager—always Corey Seager—correctly predicted one of those rising fastballs was on the way, and he blistered the offering deep into the night to give Texas a slim 1-0 lead. It was the only run Ryan allowed. He had some help from Andrew Stevenson. It was at least a little surprising that Bruce Bochy ended Scherzer’s night after just six frames. The ace to end all aces in modern times threw only 88 pitches; surely, he had more in him. (Edit: Scherzer exited with forearm tightness.)The lefty Brock Burke took the mound. He allowed a floppy single to Carlos Correa before Rocco Baldelli sent Jordan Luplow out to hit for Matt Wallner. The move worked brilliantly. Luplow took a mighty hack at a heater on the outside corner, cracking a fly ball deep into the right field bleachers that—seemingly impossibly—stayed fair. Christian Vázquez followed suit with an eerily similar shot. Yet again, as if they were fueled by Texas’ infamous bullpen, the Twins blasted another homer—this one a two-run shot by Jorge Polanco to give the team a 5-1 advantage. So, now, the onus was on Minnesota's bullpen to not screw up royally, at least in comparison to Texas' blunders. Griffin Jax didn't. Neither did Caleb Thielbar. With the weight of Ryan's excellent start, and the pressure from Cleveland's earlier victory against the Rays on his mind, Baldelli went with the overkill option, handing the ball to Jhoan Duran in a non-save situation. The stud reliever needed to get back on the horse. He certainly wasn't dominant, but he earned three clean outs, ending the game without drama or stress. Notes: Andrew Stevenson earned his first major-league hit since October 2nd, 2021. He also stole two bases. Joe Ryan has allowed two earned runs over 11 innings since coming off the IL. Jorge Polanco has homered three times in his last six games. Ryan Jeffers is 5-for-6 when pinch-hitting in 2023. Updated Standings Post-Game Interview: What's Next: The Twins and Rangers will play the second game of their series on Saturday, with first pitch coming at 6:15 P.M. A pair of lefties named after Southern cities, Dallas Keuchel and Jordan Montgomery, will face off against each other. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

Box Score SP: Bailey Ober 5.0 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 3 K Home Runs: Christian Vazquez (4) Top 3 WPA: Christian Vazquez .126, Kyle Farmer .116, Bailey Ober .095 Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) You see something new every day during a baseball game, and Jeff Nelson showed us something different in the first inning of Tuesday's Brewers and Twins matchup. After Jorge Polanco foul tipped a third strike into the glove of William Contreras, the Brewers backstop dropped the ball, but it was deemed to have happened on the transfer. That's not a play you ever see, but Rocco Baldelli got an explanation and moved on with the action. Bailey Ober has fallen off since the All-Star Break, and he continued a run of seven straight starts allowing a homer. In the first inning, Willy Adames stepped in and took Ober out to left center. After giving up just eight home runs in 82 2/3 innings before the break, he's allowed nine in 32 innings since. Christian Vazquez turned 33 on Monday, and while there were no fireworks on the Twins off day, he provided some with a blast scoring Kyle Farmer on a homer to left field. Immediately answering for Minnesota against Wade Miley, it was a new ballgame early. Ober largely nibbled in the third inning and struggled to put William Contreras away before nearly walking Carlos Santana. Instead, Jorge Polanco started a double play that Carlos Correa's howitzer attached to his right shoulder finished. Adames had a hit taken away by Kyle Famer, and the Twins could escape a daunting jam. The two previous games between Minnesota and Milwaukee this season were decided by two runs apiece, with the Twins walking off the first one. Entering the fourth inning with both teams having a pair of runs on a pair of hits only highlights how close both clubs are. Jordan Luplow, in against the lefty starter, kicked off the fourth inning with a double just down the line. After Correa worked a walk, Farmer grabbed his second hit of the game. Lofting a single to left fielder Christian Yelich, Luplow was fine testing the weak arm and came across the plate giving Minnesota their first lead. Despite a tough couple of innings to open up the game, Ober found a new gear and dominated, retiring eight straight Milwaukee hitters. While the Twins didn't crush Miley, they did force Milwaukee to the bullpen after five innings. Baldelli answered with Dylan Floro taking over for Ober in the sixth inning. At just 78 pitches, Ober had bounced back from a rough start to the outing. Having retired eight in a row, he rebounded well. Baldelli indicated that limiting innings for him down the stretch will be a thing, and tonight this was the spot. Milwaukee opened the frame with back-to-back singles before Floro got a strikeout. Mark Canha singled to right field, scoring Contreras, and the game was tied. Tyrone Taylor popped a jam-shot single to right, scoring Santana, and Milwaukee had their second lead. A Brice Turang single brought Canha home before Brian Anderson plated Taylor and Turang. Floro's sixth inning had entirely gone off the rails. Despite giving up weak contact, he surrendered six singles to Brewers batters. Trailing 7-3, Minnesota needed to find a late-inning comeback. Oliver Ortega took over in the seventh inning and brought the game to a crawl with an inability to find the strike zone. Following his 25th pitch, Ortega winced and was lifted due to injury. Cole Sands inherited a 3-0 count, issuing a walk, but got out of the inning on the next at-bat. Edouard Julien pinch hit for Donovan Solano in the top of the eighth inning, and Baldelli kept him in at first base to start the bottom half. With 420 defensive innings at the Major League level, this was the first time one came at first base. The last time Julien was used at first base was back in 2021 at Single-A Fort Myers. Interestingly, the Twins never previously got Julien innings at first base, but this certainly signifies they're open to that idea. Being an option there with Alex Kirilloff in the future opens more positions on the infield for Minnesota's youth. Royce Lewis singled to start the ninth inning, but an aggressive turn got him thrown out, retreating after attempting to stretch for a double. Max Kepler then watched a 101-mph fastball from former Twins reliever Trevor Megill for strike three. Vazquez popped out to end it and the end of this one felt like a whimper. Take a look at the game through a Brewers lens with a recap from Brewer Fanatic. Notes With the Brewers starting a lefty in Wade Miley, Matt Wallner was the lone lefty to start for Minnesota on Tuesday. Edouard Julien and Max Kepler found themselves on the bench for game one of the short series. Glen Perkins, who was on the broadcast tonight for Minnesota, talked of his struggles against Brewers' Carlos Santana. All of their matchups came when Santana was with the Guardians. Santana owned Perkins to the tune of four homers and a pair of doubles. Rocco Baldelli has said Joe Ryan's next start will come with Minnesota, not in a rehab outing for the Saints. The groin is healthy, and it remains to be seen how his effectiveness and ability to keep the ball in the yard respond. Perkins noted his first at-bat came against the Brewers. He faced Jeff Suppan and swung once, fouling the ball off. It was his lone swing in a major league game. Later in 2008, he faced Greg Maddux with the Padres. What's Next? It's a quick two-game series for the Twins and Brewers. Minnesota will face Milwaukee ace Corbin Burnes Wednesday afternoon before returning home to welcome the Texas Rangers. The following two weeks represent Minnesota's last gauntlet of the season, and how they handle, it will likely determine their 2023 fate. Wednesday 8/22 Kenta Maeda vs Corbin Burnes 1:10pm Postgame Interviews Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

Entering play on Saturday, the Twins had the 20th-best OPS in MLB, but they’ve managed to stay around a .500 record because of their excellent pitching. It’s easy to see how pumping the offense up to even a bit better than average could lead to a good team down the stretch. However, getting those additional bats is difficult, given the players currently on the roster. Now, I am not saying that the current players deserve to remain on the roster; the only two Twins positions that rank as a top-10 OPS by position are second base (9th) and designated hitter (3rd) in the league. The issue is that bringing in an additional bat generally necessitates either the displacement of a veteran or the further blocking of a prospect—or both. I wrote last month about how the team has yet to make an active, no-takebacks roster move. Furthermore, the only bat the team has bought at the deadline was backup catcher Sandy Leon, so we don’t have much precedent to go off of. Below is a position-by-position breakdown of the difficulty in bringing in a new hitter, starting with the worst-performing offensive position and working down. Centerfield—28th (and DH—3rd) Michael A. Taylor has done an admirable job holding down centerfield defensively, but if the team wants to bolster the offense, center is the most glaring weakness. Obviously, the answer could be as simple as moving Byron Buxton from DH to center, but we have yet to get any indication that the Twins are willing to do so, given Buxton’s health. Specifically, the team could sacrifice defense for offense if they wanted to and shift Taylor to a reserve role. A move for a right-handed centerfielder like Adam Duvall, who has hit lefties well, could be a natural fit. Duvall is neither a star nor a good defensive outfielder, but he will at least stand in center, as opposed to Max Kepler. We'll discuss Kepler and his cronies later on, but it's worth mentioning now that the Twins have a significant backlog in the outfield, and bringing in a new centerfielder will add to that. If, somehow, Buxton returns to the outfield, the question would be about filling a DH spot, but I’m not getting my hopes up. As it stands, a Duvall-like move seems to be the most promising, though not exciting. Third Base—24th Jose Miranda entered the year as the top third baseman in the organization, but he currently has more plate appearances in AAA St. Paul than in Minnesota. Since his recent call-up to replace Royce Lewis, who will miss more than a month with an oblique injury, he has not impressed, nor has he been an everyday player. A motley crew of Kyle Farmer, Willi Castro, and Donovan Solano will play the days he doesn’t start. There would be an opportunity at third base to add a bat. That is, there would be an opportunity to add a bat if Royce Lewis wasn’t expected back this year. It’s a complex argument to add at the spot where your recently-graduated #1 prospect is supposed to reside, especially because the outfield seems off-limits to him this year. Corner Outfield—26th (LF) & 19th (RF) The corners have been the subject of much consternation, hemming, and hawing this year. Joey Gallo and Max Kepler have held their spots in left and right, respectively, and given their veteran status, they have been treated like stalwarts. The situation could be aided by someone like Duvall as a right-handed bat to take the load off against lefties (I promise—last time that I’ll mention Duvall), but that doesn’t completely solve the problem. Further complicating matters are young corner outfield bats Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner. Even if one of Kepler or Gallo were jettisoned to make room for the new bat, the prospects in their mid-20s would continue to be blocked, much to many fans’ dismay. The team could always just let go of one or both of the veterans, but there’s no great assurance that the young bats will be any better, compared to the prospect of bringing in an established veteran. It’s a difficult situation to navigate, but that’s why Derek Falvey gets paid the big bucks. Catcher—20th There are few ways to improve the offense with a bigger bat catcher. First, ignoring the incumbents, bringing in a catcher with a big bat isn’t a reliable strategy. Catchers, for the most part, don’t hit, and bringing in someone who can hit well and play catcher is going to cost an arm and a leg. Personnel-wise, it’s also tricky. The current duo—Christian Vazquez and Ryan Jeffers—have handled the pitching staff well. Vazquez just signed a three-year, $30M contract, and it’d be difficult to move on from him so early, even with his struggles at the plate. Jeffers looks like the future catcher, with an improved arm, solid framing, and a respectable .792 OPS for a catcher. It’d be surprising to see another catcher brought in. Shortstop—15th The only reason to include shortstop on this list is for consistency. Carlos Correa isn’t getting replaced. The only feasible way that a shortstop is brought in is as a Kyle Farmer replacement—hits lefties (hopefully better than Farmer) and is a legit shortstop. Farmer may get lost in roster churn around this time, but Lewis can also backup short, so it’s really not worth considering anyone unless a deal hits them in the face. First Base—12th First base has been primarily handled by Kirilloff, Solano, and Gallo this season, and it’s been alright. As much as fans would love a Paul Goldschmidt trade—or any other big bat, first-base-only player—it would lead to a conundrum like the moves in the corner outfield. Kirilloff was the organization’s top prospect a couple of years ago, so they would hypothetically want to keep him in the lineup, likely in the outfield if a new plod was traded for. That would further jam the corners and require additional moves and prospect blocking. One wrinkle here is the health of Kirilloff’s wrist. In recent weeks, he has shown less ability to drive the ball, despite his continued excellence in putting the bat to the ball. If his wrist isn’t healthy again, playing time at first base would open up, and the team would want to bring in someone who can produce in the power position. Second Base—9th The Twins already have too many second basemen. If and when Jorge Polanco returns from injury, they’ll be in a position where two of their top hitters—the other being Edouard Julien —will have only played second base this year. They need to sort that out before they add someone else to the mix. The Twins would be well-suited to bring in a bat or two somewhere. The issue is that there’s no simple way to do so. “Established” veterans will be removed or moved to reduced roles, and there are young players who deserve full-time work. It's going to be the type of difficult decision that we have yet to see this season. As of yet, there’s no indication of how new hitters would fit, but hopefully, we’ll find out soon.

This winter the Twins “got their guy”, signing Joey Gallo to a one-year $11 million deal. As we’ve seen so many times, the veteran they brought in is likely making the last stop of his career in Minnesota, and they refuse to cut bait. Signing Joey Gallo was always a risky move, but an understandable one. Though the thought of parting with another left-handed bat to relieve the logjam never came to fruition, there was potential for a big bounce back. It hasn’t happened as we march into August, and the Twins appear content giving an out away every time through the lineup for the rest of the season as they desperately hope for the deal to not look like a complete flop. The stars seemingly aligned for Joey Gallo at the trade deadline. He was the most apparent cut candidate had they made an offensive addition, but luckily for Gallo, they did absolutely nothing. It’s possible he’d have survived any additions because of his price tag and the Twins' tendencies to hold onto veterans too long, but we’ll never know for sure. Things have gotten even better for Gallo since, as Alex Kirilloff and Donovan Solano have both hit the injured list. As the only remaining player who’s played a significant amount of first base this season, surely they can’t part with Gallo now, right? It should be simple: No amount of context at this point justifies Joey Gallo sticking to a competitive team’s roster. The hits have come less and less, naturally leading to fewer homers to make up for the lack of anything else. More importantly for the team on pace to break the all-time strikeout record, Gallo’s whiffs have become insurmountable. The Twins seem to value his defense at first base. He’s been exactly neutral with 0 Defensive Runs Saved, and 0 Outs Above Average. This is hardly a high bar to clear, and his ability to stand at first base should not justify a roster spot. Many have called for players such as Edouard Julien to diversify their defensive profiles and work some first base in, but the Twins' refusal to date leaves them with the current result. So what should the Twins do exactly? Anything else. In the past, the Twins keeping players such as Matt Wallner down was justified by the possibility that they’d perform worse than the incumbents. Unless we think whoever is called up can somehow undershoot a .130ish batting average and strike out more than half the time, that really shouldn’t be a concern here. The Twins' best players this season have been rookies called up from St. Paul. Right now Chris Williams plays a lot of first base for the Saints. He’s slashing .254/.371/.540 with 19 homers in Triple-A. There may not be much upside there at age 26, but it’s reached a point where it’s worth giving it a try. Anthony Prato has some first-base experience as well and has a 1.093 OPS. If the Twins are comfortable at all with him at first, the move should be a no-brainer. Both players perform better against lefties than righties, but so has Gallo this season. The first base depth may take a hit, but the Twins still have Kyle Farmer and Christian Vazquez with first-base experience, and they felt good enough about Solano to keep him off the IL. They have people who are technically capable of playing the position, which has seemingly been enough to justify Gallo keeping his roster spot for months now. There’s no rebound on the horizon for Joey Gallo. He’s averaging about one hit per week, and the walks aren’t valuable enough to justify his near everyday playing time. He’s rarely even putting balls over the fence anymore. Despite the remaining strength of schedule, the Twins are in a dogfight for the division, as evidenced by their 1-6 record against Detroit and Kansas City since the break. The time has come and gone to blindly trust the veterans. In the case of Joey Gallo, there are no worse options. Do you agree?

Box Score: Starting Pitcher: Sonny Gray: 6 2/3 IP, 4 H 4 ER 3 BB 7 K (93 Pitches, 60 Strikes, 64.5%) Home Runs: None Bottom 3 WPA: Royce Lewis (-.212), Joey Gallo (-.174), Donovan Solano (-.162) Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs): Sonny Gray has been sharp lately, both due to better command of his breaking pitches, and a concerted effort to challenge hitters more. His 2.78 FIP coming into the game led baseball, as did his rate of home runs allowed. With Gerrit Cole's blowup against the Red Sox (4 IP, 6 ER), a good outing would position Gray well in his quest for a first Cy Young award (though Pablo Lopez might have something to say about that). It sure started off well. Fresh off of blanking the hot-hitting Phillies over six innings last Sunday, Gray got right to work against the struggling Pirates' lineup in the first. He struck out Ji-Hwan Bae and Bryan Reynolds on three pitches each (featuring some devastating sweepers), then got ahead of Andrew McCutchen 0-2. With the first immaculate inning in Twins history* hanging in the balance, the veteran McCutchen spoiled the fun by flying out lazily to Max Kepler. *The Twins' broadcast mentioned that Scott Baker once threw an immaculate inning, which is not true, Baker did, however, strike out four men in one inning in 2008, which may have produced the confusion. Opposing Gray was Mitch Keller of the Pirates, a former high draft pick (from Cedar Rapids) and top prospect who had a few lean years before appearing to break out earlier this year, pitching to a 3.31 ERA with a 27% strikeout rate in the first half. He has struggled mightily since then, with a 7.71 ERA and 20% strikeout rate. The Twins added to his struggles in the first, starting with Jorge Polanco, who smacked a one-out single into right field and promptly stole second. With two outs, Kepler hit a grounder up the middle that would have been right at Pirates shortstop Liover Peguero... except the ball struck Keller in the foot and caromed into right field for a double and the game's first run. Keller recovered to strike out the streaking Royce Lewis, which would be a theme in the early innings. Keller's sinker and sweeper confounded Twins hitters and resulted in a whopping eight strikeouts through the first three innings. He finished with 12. But at that point, Gray was untouchable. Through the first five innings, he threw only 47 pitches, eliciting weak contact and confusing an inexperienced Pittsburgh lineup with his vast assortment of pitches. In the fifth, Richie Palacios appeared to break up the perfecto as well as the no-hitter, hitting a sharp grounder up the middle with second baseman Eduoard Julien shading towards first. But Julien ranged to his right, popped up off of a knee and delivered a strong throw to retire Palacios. It wasn't just an impressive play by Julien, but a legitimately impressive play, period. The Twins added some insurance in the bottom of the inning. Following a rare Joey Gallo ground ball double play, Christian Vázquez delivered an opposite field double which was then followed by a soft single by Michael A. Taylor to double the lead. After retiring his 16th straight batter of the night, Gray then induced a soft ground ball off the bat of Peguero that was fielded by Polanco at third. Polanco's throw was wide, however, and Peguero took a circuitous route to the bag, possibly interfering with first baseman Donovan Solano's glove. But the out was not recorded, and Peguero was awarded a hit, ending the possibility of any sort of history being made. A bloop hit and a walk followed, bringing up Reynolds with the bases loaded. Gray set him down on three pitches, but threw a mistake pitch to McCutchen ahead in the count, who drove a single up the middle to tie the game 2-2. Ke'Bryan Hayes then broke the tie with a sharp single to left. The Twins had a golden opportunity to bounce back in the bottom of the sixth. Following a Polanco leadoff walk, Correa and Kepler both singled, bringing up Lewis with the bases loaded. Perhaps expecting the sinker down 0-2, Lewis swung through a four-seamer a few inches outside for a crucial strikeout. That brought up Solano, who fell behind on a questionable strike one call and eventually struck out on a beautiful sweeper, bringing up Gallo with two strikes. He worked the count full, but succumbed to strike three on a fastball up in the zone, ending the threat. Keller was pretty electric, overall. The fates had more misery for the Twins in the top of the seventh. After a Jack Suwinski walk, Peguero grounded to third base. Polanco threw to second , and while Julien made his relay, Suwinski interfered by continuing to charge forward, clearly altering Julien's throwing motion. The throw was high and Solano appeared to still get his foot down before Peguero's, but this was the infamous Laz Diaz's umpire crew, and not only did they not call interference, they also called Peguero safe at first. The Twins challenged both plays, and somehow were denied on both counts. You don't have to watch a lot of baseball to know that Bae then doubled home Peguero to extend the lead to 4-2. The Good: Vázquez had two doubles, after entering the game with 12 extra base hits all season; Correa got on base twice more, with a sharp single and a walk. He came into the game with a 1.149 OPS over his previous ten games; The Bad: Gray fell into some of his old habits by walking three men, all in crucial spots late in his outing; Lewis had a series of bad at-bats, including his bases loaded strikeout. He later swung wildly at what would have been ball four inside, resulting in a strike out to lead off the eighth inning. Balazovic had a tough outing, giving up three hits, three runs and three walks without recording a strikeout. The smoke and mirrors success he had early on has not proven sustainable, and McCutchen's home run off of him sealed the loss tonight. What’s Next: Dallas Keuchel (0-1, 9.45 ERA) goes for the series win against Osvaldo Bido (2-3, 5.05 ERA). Keuchel is on thin ice, having not struck out a batter over his first two outings, while Joe Ryan had a successful rehab outing on Friday. Postgame Interviews: Bullpen Usage Chart: TUE WED THU FRI SAT TOT Balazovic 0 18 0 0 36 54 Floro 14 6 0 0 27 47 Jax 0 33 0 11 0 44 Pagán 11 15 0 11 0 37 Durán 14 0 0 17 0 31 Winder 0 28 0 0 0 28 Thielbar 9 0 0 10 0 19 Sands 0 0 0 0 8 8

When Derek Falvey tricked the New York Yankees into eating Josh Donaldson’s albatross of a contract, he brought in Gary Sanchez to play alongside of Ryan Jeffers. Unfortunately, Sanchez couldn’t find the success he had shown earlier in his career, and he was below average posting an 88 OPS+ while still playing relatively poor defense. By the end of the season, Minnesota needed to acquire Sandy Leon simply to have a warm body behind the plate. The Twins had already put Jose Godoy and Caleb Hamilton behind the plate, and the system had no one else to turn to. Ben Rortvedt was sent to New York in the Donaldson deal, and the offseason became one of questions. The Twins went out and got Christian Vazquez off the free agent market. A well-respected veteran with a World Series ring to his credit, Vazquez seems to be the perfect type of addition for a clubhouse that needed a new vibe. He had played with winners in Boston and Houston during his career. His production landed him a three-year deal worth $30 million. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been as billed on the field. Through July 28, Vazquez has played 67 games and owns an awful 70 OPS+. That’s well below his 84 OPS+ career mark, and it’s even further from the 94 OPS+ he put up since 2019. Fortunately for Minnesota, Jeffers has been a saving grace. With only Edouard Julien ahead of him in fWAR among position players (1.9), Jeffers has already compiled a 1.5 fWAR in 2023. That mark is already a career best, and he still has plenty of runway to add for Minnesota. How Jeffers got there is somewhat of a perfect scenario for the Twins. Drafted as what some considered a reach, and with the potential that he wouldn’t stick behind the plate, he has turned that narrative on its head. After flashing a 119 OPS+ during his first 26 big league games, he’s expanded upon that this season owning a 128 OPS+ across 60 games. For Minnesota, Jeffers owns a .281/.385/.438 slash line. He’s done a great job cutting down on strikeouts and honing in at the plate. He is tracking well behind the career-best 14 home runs he hit during the 2021 season, but he should surpass the 10 doubles that sit as a high water mark. Picking certain spots on the bases, he has also stolen three bases after having none through the first three seasons of his career. As a defender, Jeffers has always had a calling card as a pitch framer. That hasn’t slipped this season, and he’s turned himself into an all-around defender. With two blocks above average on Statcast’s new leaderboard, Jeffers is among the top 20 across baseball when it comes to keeping the ball in front of him. His pop time sits at 1.97 which checks in above average, and for the first time in his career he’s well above league average when it comes to throwing out base runners. With a 28% caught stealing rate, and the league sitting at just 21%, Jeffers has controlled the running game better despite stealing being more prevalent than ever across recent seasons. There is still more to be done with Jeffers’ game as he looks to bring back some of the power he showed during the 2021 season. His hard hit rates are at a career low, and his barrel rate is way down. The outcomes have room to improve, but the process remains solid. Chasing at a manageable clip and controlling the zone, even better results may be on the way. Jeffers isn’t a free agent until 2027, meaning he’s under team control for an entire year beyond the duration of Vazquez’s contract. He just recently turned 26 years old and is pushing to be on the heavier side of a timeshare is something that Minnesota could consider for him in the seasons ahead. The Twins cemented certainty behind the dish when they signed Vazquez, and the emergence of Jeffers has brought the tandem to a whole new level. They both have combined to receive one of the best pitching staffs in baseball, and the results from the rotation shouldn’t be far removed from the backstop performances either. At some point the front office wanted to see the player they envisioned when drafting him in the second round of the 2018 MLB Draft. Now beginning to see glimpses, continued development from here would be shined upon. For more Twins Daily content on Ryan Jeffers, click here. A search of Twins Daily contains eight pages of articles in which Ryan Jeffers has been tagged.

Box Score: Starting Pitcher: Sonny Gray: 6 IP 7 H 2 ER 1 BB 4 SO (88 Pitches, 59 Strikes, 67%) Home Runs: none Top 3 WPA: Christian Vázquez (.350), Carlos Correa (.202), Jhoan Duran (.156) Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs): Coming off a string of starts that would have been great save for a random 20-25 pitch stretch during which he completely lost command, Sonny Gray was looking to stay consistent against a struggling White Sox team. Gray loaded the bases in the first inning, giving up singles to Andrew Benintendi and Eloy Jimenez, walking Yasmani Grandal and getting Tim Anderson to line out at 102 MPH. The White Sox scored the first run of the game on a mental lapse from Gray, Vazquez and Edouard Julien. With one out and runners on the corners, Luis Robert got a great jump stealing second. Christian Vazquez decided to try and throw him out, and Julien tried to apply the tag rather than cutting the ball off and throwing home, allowing Tim Anderson to score from third. Grandal then singled home Robert on a middle-middle changeup to make the score 2-0. Gray settled down after that, his command of his breaking pitches improving as the game went on. He also avoided the blow-up inning, giving the Twins a quality start and keeping them in the game against an excellent mound opponent. Dylan Cease turns the clock back to 2022 The Fox broadcast interviewed Lucas Giolito during the second inning, who was asked what Cease needs to do to pitch like he did in 2022, when he finished second in the AL Cy Young voting. Giolito said all Cease had to do was command his fastball, and his slider would become unhittable. That statement did prove somewhat prophetic. In the third inning, Cease threw a fastball right down the middle that Vazquez cracked for an opposite field double, and allowed a run-scoring double to Carlos Correa on a fat knuckle-curve, his third pitch and one he generally uses to get hitters to not sit on his slider. He then struck out the Twins’ best hitters of late, Julien and Alex Kirilloff on filthy breaking pitches (after getting ahead with the fastball) to escape the jam. He too settled in, relying more on his slider, spotting his fastball and dominating at-bats. He allowed a leadoff walk to Correa in the sixth, but retired Julien on a painted fastball 3-2, got Kirilloff to pop out on the first pitch, and though Max Kepler had a couple of long fly balls against Cease, he flied out weakly to left field, ending whatever threat there was. Seventh Inning goes quite well After Jordan Balazovic pitched an effective top of the seventh, the Twins went to work against Keynan Middleton, a scrap heap pickup who has, with the help of a dominant changeup, pitched himself into being traded to a contender in the next week or so. Buxton drew a walk, stole second, and then Kyle Farmer got a swinging bunt single to bring up Vázquez with two men on and one out, knocking Middleton out of the game. Facing ground ball specialist Gregory Santos, Vazquez jumped on the first pitch, a 99 MPH sinker, and nearly hit a three run home run, the ball bouncing off the top of the padding in left center field, resulting in a double and scoring Buxton to tie the game. Michael A. Taylor followed with an excellent at-bat against Santos, trying to bunt with the count 2-1, and fouling off pitches until he got a center cut sinker at 101 MPH that he drove up the middle for a single that gave the Twins the lead. Jax Bends, does not Break Griffin Jax got the eighth inning, and immediately put himself into trouble, giving up a leadoff double to Luis Robert, who fought off a fastball up and in and was rewarded with a 68 mph double. After a walk, Jax was able to settle in, getting a grounder from Grandal and a jam-shot pop-up from Jake Burger. He then struck out pinch hitter Gavin Sheets on a gorgeous sweeper to end the inning. Manager Rocco Baldelli made the curious decision to sub Donovan Solano for Edouard Julien to start the eighth, a minor defensive improvement, but one that left the Twins with Max Kepler and Matt Wallner leading off the bottom of the eighth against lefty buzz saw reliever Aaron Bummer, who set down the two lefty hitters easily before retiring Byron Buxton. Duran shuts the Door The ninth inning started ominously, with rookie Oscar Colas hitting a chopper up the middle off of Jhoan Duran, a do-or-die play that Correa mishandled. Duran rebounded to strike out Carlos Perez and Benintendi, before allowing a perfectly placed infield single to Tim Anderson. That brought up Robert who struck out on a high fastball to end the game. What’s Next: Bailey Ober (6-4, 2.74 ERA) faces off against Lucas Giolito (6-6, 3.96) as the Twins look to take the sweep. Ober has been the Twins' most consistent starter this year, if not the best, and looks to continue that run of success. Giolito has had a couple of clunkers this year, but overall the changeup specialist has rebounded from a tough 2022 to become a sought-after trade chip for the south siders. A sweep would be the first non-Athletics/Royals sweep of the year for the Twins. Postgame Interviews: (Coming soon) Bullpen Usage Chart: TUE WED THU FRI SAT TOT Durán 0 20 0 0 21 41 Pagán 8 11 0 15 0 34 Jax 0 15 0 0 16 31 J. López 0 0 28 0 0 28 Morán 0 0 0 22 0 22 Balazovic 15 0 0 0 7 22 Sands 17 0 3 0 0 20 Ortega 0 0 18 0 0 18

Defensive metrics have come a long way over the last decade. With Statcast tracking every batted ball, the amount of information available to fans is at an all-time high. One metric the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) developed is the SABR Defensive Index (SDI). According to SABR's website, the SDI "draws on and aggregates two types of existing defensive metrics: those derived from batted ball location-based data and those collected from play-by-play accounts." Since 2013, SDI has been used as part of the process for selecting Gold Glove winners. The rankings below are through games played on July 9, 2023. Pitcher (AL Ranking): Pablo Lopez 1.5 SDI (3rd), Sonny Gray 0.0 SDI (22nd), Joe Ryan -0.8 SDI (31st) Lopez made one of the biggest jumps of any Twins player over the last month. He was the top-ranked Twins pitcher in the initial rankings but ranked 11th in the AL. Since the beginning of June, he has more than doubled his SDI total. Only Zack Greinke (3.7 SDI) and Jose Berrios (2.5 SDI) rank above Lopez. Gray stayed consistent over the last month and increased one spot in the rankings. Ryan is near the bottom of the rankings among qualified pitchers, with Lucas Giolito and Luis Castillo being the only player below him. Lopez had a tremendous month and has a chance to move up the rankings with another strong month. Catcher (AL Ranking): Christian Vazquez 3.2 SDI (5th), Ryan Jeffers 1.6 SDI (8th) Minnesota has arguably the best defensive-catching duo in the American League. Vazquez has been known as a strong defender and ranks in the top five according to SDI, where he finished the 2022 campaign. Since joining the Twins, his framing has improved from the 55th percentile to the 79th percentile. Jeffers has been touted for his framing ability and finished last season ranking in the 64th percentile. He has struggled more in 2023 by ranking in the 27th percentile. First Base (AL Ranking): No Twins Players Qualify The Twins have used multiple players at first base so far in 2023, which means no one has accumulated enough innings to qualify for the SDI leaderboard. In the initial rankings, Joey Gallo ranked sixth with a -0.2 SDI, but he has started playing more outfield, with Alex Kirilloff getting regular reps at first base. Kirilloff has struggled at first base with a -5 DRS and a -4 OAA in over 280 innings. Only three AL first basemen have a positive SDI, and Kirilloff's struggles wouldn't put him in the Gold Glove conversation. Second Base (AL Ranking): No Twins Players Qualify Like first base, the Twins have shuffled through different players at second base. Jorge Polanco is close to returning from injury but has struggled defensively in recent years as age and injuries start to mount. Edouard Julien is considered a below-average defensive second baseman, and other metrics prove that to be true. He has a -5 DRS and OAA in over 240 innings at second. Minnesota refuses to give him time at other defensive positions, so Julien needs to find a way to be passable at second so his bat can stay in the line-up. Third Base (AL Ranking): No Twins Players Qualify Four Twins players have accrued more than 100 innings at third base this season, with Jose Miranda leading the way. In over 300 innings, Miranda has posted a 1 DRS and a -6 OAA, so he wouldn't rank well according to SDI if he qualified for the leaderboard. Royce Lewis had a 1 DRS and a -1 OAA in just under 200 innings before his oblique injury. With Lewis and Miranda on the IL, Kyle Farmer and Willi Castro will see more time at the hot corner. Shortstop (AL Ranking): Carlos Correa 1.1 SDI (7th) Correa made a solid jump in the rankings over the last month by improving by 1.7 SDI and moving from 11th to seventh in the AL. Last season, he started poorly and finished the season with a 1.6 SDI (9th in the AL). He is on pace to finish with a better defensive season, but there is little chance of him catching the players in the top three who have between 9.1 and 4.2 SDI. It's a far cry from the defensive player he was in Houston, but his plantar fasciitis might be impacting his mobility. Left Field (AL Ranking): Willi Castro 1.0 SDI (6th), Joey Gallo -0.1 SDI (8th) He has not been known as a strong defender, but the Twins are getting a career-best season from Castro. With Detroit, he combined for a -1 DRS and a -1 OAA in LF, but he's posted a 3 DRS and a 0 OAA in 2023. Gallo is just a little behind Castro with a 0 DRS and a -1 OAA. Only two qualified AL left fielder rank below Gallo, Oswaldo Cabrera, and Andrew Benintendi. Center Field (AL Ranking): Michael A. Taylor 3.7 SDI (5th) Taylor had a tremendous month of June by accumulating 3.0 SDI and moving up two spots on the AL leaderboard. In his age-32 season, he ranks in the 90th percentile for OAA, and his arm strength is in the 84th percentile. Despite this improvement, many fans have been clamoring for Byron Buxton to return to center field. Twins General Manager Thad Levine recently said that Buxton has been working "behind the scenes" to return to center field. Taylor has been great defensively, but Buxton has the potential to be even better. Right Field (AL Ranking): Max Kepler 1.6 SDI (5th) Kepler was a Gold Glove finalist in 2022 after finishing the season with the second-highest SDI total (6.3 SDI). He posted an elite Outs Above Average ranking in the 97th percentile in 2022. Defensively, he struggled to start the season but improved his OAA from the 67th percentile at the beginning of June to the 84th percentile by the All-Star break. The top AL right fielders have accumulated a 3.3 SDI or higher, so Kepler must continue to play well to move into the top-3. Are you surprised by any of these defensive rankings? Which Twins will be Gold Glove finalists? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

Box Score Joe Ryan: 5 ⅓ IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 7 K Home Runs: Christian Vázquez (2), Alex Kirilloff (5) Top 3 WPA: Alex Kirilloff (.453), Emilio Pagán (.204), Christian Vázquez (.185) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) The Twins—disappointing; lethargic—entered Sunday, the victors of the two first games of the second half. Oakland hadn't made it easy. The California tankers fought with vigor to win, challenging Minnesota in almost every inning the two teams played. Would the Twins earn a sweep to start the second half, or would the A's be too feisty to handle? It was a homecoming of sorts for Joe Ryan. The Northern California native took the mound with plenty of supporters in the stands, rooting on the sterling pitcher in his breakout season. He was stellar early, working a six-pitch 1st to send the team on its way. JP Sears is no slouch, however. Assuming Oakland's team lacks talent would be foolish; the 27-year-old lefty stood as Ryan's opponent on Saturday and was on his game. Until Mark Kotsay took the ball from Sears' hand, the former Yankees farmhand was sharp, efficient. He diced through lefties and righties all the same, offering rising heaters, dying changeups, and sweepers that seemed to move from the Pacific to the Atlantic, all leading to 6 ⅓ quality innings with seven strikeouts. But he wasn't perfect. Christian Vázquez startled his shutout effort in the 5th, hammering one of those fastballs out to right-center to give the Twins their first run. They only needed one more out to score again. Alex Kirilloff also caught a fastball—this one trickier, placed precisely on the outside corner—but powered it enough to reach the top of the wall, cutting Minnesota's deficit to one. About that deficit: Ryan wasn't himself. A sluggish splitter to Jordan Diaz cost him some ERA points in the 2nd, but the primary damage came in the fourth when Oakland shot the ball around the yard to plate two. You could tell Ryan's story in more than earned runs, though: he walked three batters for the first time since May 30th. It seemed, then, that the Twins would have trouble winning this game. With yet another lackluster start from their stud starting rotation and with the bats again flailing with wild abandon, Minnesota needed drastic action to take the lead. They got it. Sears exited the game to a hero's appreciation, turning the ball over to Oakland's dreadful bullpen. A walk and an infield hit loaded the bases, sending Kirilloff to the plate. He delivered. A shot a ball down the left field line, allowing all three runners to come home safely as he trotted into third. Minnesota failed to plate another run, but their lead was enough now. What would they need an extra gluttonous run for? 5-3 soon became 5-4. Jorge López smoothly ended the sixth with a first-pitch double-play lineout, but the seventh wasn't as kind. He walked a man, eventually giving him 2nd off a wild pitch. Then Zack Gelof plopped a ball between a galloping Kepler and a flailing Kirilloff, chopping off the all-important luxury run with one fortunate swing. And so entered Jhoan Duran. He pitched on Friday and Saturday, but Rocco Baldelli decided to call upon his reliable workhorse for a third straight game. He had yet to do such a thing in his MLB career. He coaxed a grounder to start the inning, but Shea Langeliers smoked a double high off the right-center field wall. Jace Peterson flew out. Laboring, Duran fired without his usual control, and Tony Kemp lined one of his hanging splitters... directly into Willi Castro's glove to end the game. Notes: Alex Kirilloff's 4 RBIs tied a single-game career-high; his previous 4 RBI outing was on April 30th, 2021 against the Royals. Joe Ryan's seven strikeouts pushed his season total to 131, good for 8th in MLB. He is 21 strikeouts away from setting a single-season career-high. Carlos Correa extended his on-base streak to 13 games. Christian Vázquez reached base three times for the first time since June 1st. Post-Game Interview: What’s Next? The Twins will extend their west coast trip, heading up I-5 to play the Mariners in Seattle. Sonny Gray will retake the mound he pitched on in the All-Star game; Logan Gilbert will pitch opposite of him and first pitch is at 8:40 PM. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

The Twins traded for three MLB players, signed four MLB deals, and brought on an additional three players on minor league deals that have contributed to this year’s team. When evaluating this team, it’s worth taking stock of how the offseason moves are looking. I’ve listed the ten acquisitions below, from most expensive (total salary committed) to least expensive. Relevant statistics include plate appearances or innings pitched, OPS+ or ERA+ (less than 100 is worse than league average; above is better), and wins above replacement as calculated for both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs. Carlos Correa – Signed for $200M over six years 303 PA, 90 OPS+, 0.8 bWAR, 0.6 fWAR The $200 million man has yet to impress. He’s on pace to have the worst offensive year of his career. His defense at shortstop has been good, but it hasn’t been Gold Glove-worthy, so getting too excited about what the rest of this contract holds is hard. There’s still a lot of time to turn it around, but the first eight percent has not been promising. Christian Vazquez – Signed for $30M over three years 180 PA, 68 OPS+, 0.2 bWAR, 0.7 fWAR Speaking of multi-year deals that could be more promising, Vazquez has not impressed as the primary catcher. He’s also in the midst of his worst offensive year since 2018. However, the pitchers seem to like him, and his defense is still above average. Still, it’s getting more difficult by the day to justify his black hold in this putrid lineup starting over a superior hitter in Ryan Jeffers. Joey Gallo – Signed for $11M over one year 207 PA, 113 OPS+, 0.4 bWAR, 0.5 fWAR Gallo got a torrid start but has regressed heavily in the last two months. It’s difficult to be too upset over a one-year flyer signing, and Gallo has filled in at multiple positions when needed. Still, the signing has also restricted Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner’s path to big league playing time. Maybe Gallo will get hot again soon and make the signing worth it, but it’s not looking good right now. Kyle Farmer – Traded for Casey Legumina, making $5.59M, final year of arbitration in 2024 167 PA, 87 OPS+, 0.8 bWAR, 0.7 fWAR Farmer has performed as expected. He’s competently played all four infield positions and stood in left field several times. The salary and prospect traded for him make this acquisition an even value. Of note, he’s been a plus hitter against lefties, as was expected. Pablo Lopez – Traded for Luis Arraez, making $5.45M, extended for $74M over four years 96 IP, 96 ERA+, 0.8 bWAR, 2.2 fWAR The Twins traded from a perceived position of strength—left-handed corner bats—for pitching, and it’s difficult to separate how Lopez is performing from Arraez’s chase for .400 in Miami. To his credit, Lopez has been a solid-to-great pitcher, depending on your belief in his underlying metrics. The acquisition hasn’t been a win, but Lopez is certainly doing his part. Michael A. Taylor – Traded for Evan Sisk, Steven Cruz. Making $4.5M 221 PA, 83 OPS+, 0.6 bWAR, 0.6 fWAR Taylor has been thrust into an everyday job, and unless someone else comes along—Byron Buxton included—he’ll be the first option in center field each day. He’s hit around his career average, which isn’t good, and his defense has been slipping a bit, which is unsurprising for the 32-year-old. If the expectation was that he was merely a backup, the trade looks much better than if he was expected to start 120 games in center field. Donovan Solano – Signed for $2M over one year 220 PA, 115 ERA+, 0.8 bWAR, 0.6 fWAR Where would this team be without Donnie Barrels? Solano was signed during spring training as an additional platoon bat against lefties as a first baseman or DH. He’s been one of the team’s most consistent hitters thus far and has held his own against both righties and lefties, playing second and third base when needed. It’s a great use of $2M as a bench player, which is what he should currently be—but isn’t. Willi Castro – Signed for $1.8M (MiLB deal) 191 PA, 92 OPS+, 1.7 bWAR, 1.1 fWAR Where would this team be without Willi Rafael Castro? Signed to a minor league deal, Castro broke camp with the team as a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency with the ability to play every position. He’s been a slightly below-average hitter but is 12-for-12 stealing bases, almost carried the team offensively for a few weeks, and provides excellent roster utility. He’s a great asset as a 13th man but, like Solano, is playing more than he should. Brock Stewart – Signed MiLB deal 25.2 IP, 610 ERA+, 1.5 bWAR, 0.7 fWAR Where would this team be without Beef Stew? The minor league signee has been the best reliever on the team statistically, and he’s been number two in the bullpen hierarchy behind Jhoan Duran. His emergence has been terrific and has rewarded the team for taking an albeit low-risk chance on him. Oliver Ortega – Claimed off waivers, MiLB deal 4 IP, 102 ERA+, 0.0 bWAR, 0.0 fWAR Where would this—never mind. I included Ortega because he is the only other player who has played for the Twins this year added in the offseason. He was claimed off waivers and now has a chance to get work in an injury-riddled bullpen. Will he stick as a low-mid leverage arm? Who knows. EDIT: Jose De Leon – MiLB deal 17.1 IP, 93 ERA+, 0.0 bWAR, 0.2 fWAR De Leon, like Stewart and Ortega, signed a minor league deal in the offseason, but he had emerged as a potential competent middle or long relief option. He fit the team as the seventh or eighth guy out of the pen with some flexibility in use, but he will be undergoing Tommy John Surgery and will miss the remainder of 2023. He was an adequate find that will need to be replaced, likely by high minors pitching prospects. In review, there’s a bit of a pattern here—if you can call ten players’ results a pattern. The three most expensive free agent veterans (Correa, Vazquez, Gallo) have not carried their weight thus far. The three lowest-paid free agents (Solano, Castro, Stewart) have been outperforming expectations and have emerged as vital parts of this team—which may be damning with faint praise. The three players traded for (Farmer, Lopez, Taylor) have performed about as expected, though, in Lopez’s case, the cost of Luis Arraez clouds that, and Taylor has been playing more than expected. Do you disagree with any of these assessments? How do you feel about the job that the front office did?

1. Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa are both on pace to finish with 1.2 fWAR. This is the banner headline of the Twins season so far, and one that oddly seems to get buried amid complaints about bullpen management, lineup construction, Emilio Pagán lapses, prospect timelines, and otherwise. I get it, because when things are going as poorly as they are, people want to project blame and assign villains. Unfortunately, to get to the bottom of what's fundamentally hindering this team, we need look no further than the promised heroes: two most talented, highly-paid, and (arguably) likable players on the roster. Correa and Buxton, earning a combined $50 million, have completely let this team down in the first half and there is no other way to put it. To provide some context around this pitiful pace for 1.2 fWAR, which would be lower than Gary Sanchez's final mark as a Twin last year: it would be easily the lowest of either players' career in a remotely full season. Here are Buxton's fWAR totals from the past four years: 2023, halfway: 0.6 (63 games) 2022: 4.0 (92 games) 2021: 4.1 (61 games) 2020: 1.2 (39 games) 2019: 3.0 (37 games) Here's a comparative look at Correa's track record in fWAR: 2023, halfway: 0.6 (71 games) 2022: 4.4 (136 games) 2021: 6.4 (148 games) 2020: 1.2 (58 games) 2019: 3.8 (75 games) Because they've historically offered outstanding defense at premium positions, Correa and Buxton have been consistent sources of value, even in injury-shortened seasons. That is not the case this year. Buxton's defensive impact has been eliminated by DH duty, while Correa's defense – still good, albeit not resembling its peak – doesn't do nearly to offset a .287 on-base percentage and abundance of GIDPs. Two proven star players, in their prime, contributing like random role players, even as they've been able to stay on the field. It is a stunning and devastating failure from the duo in which this team invested its present and future hopes. Twin tragedies. Can Correa and Buxton reverse this depressing storyline in the second half? If they don't, the Twins franchise will be in a dire state coming out of this season, regardless of what decisions are made in the fallout. 2. Willi Castro leads all Twins position players in fWAR (1.1) and is on pace for 382 plate appearances. The downside of this note is that Castro – a minor-league signing during the offseason after being discarded by the lowly Tigers – has produced nearly as much fWAR in the first half as Correa and Buxton combined. And the fact that he's on pace for nearly 400 PAs says a lot about the team around him. But it also speaks to how Castro has earned his way into a larger role than expected, providing reasonably decent offensive production, defensive versatility, and aggressive speed on the bases, where he is 15-for-15 on steal attempts. For all the negatives across the position-player corps this year, Castro has been a legitimate positive, and one whose impact could stretch beyond this season as a controllable 26-year-old asset. Theoretically, when the rest of the lineup gets going and Castro's role is reduced, he'll be a really nice bench piece to have around. 3. Joey Gallo is on pace to finish with 26 home runs ... and 52 RBIs. Gallo's all-or-nothing production profile epitomizes that of the team at large, which is why he's grown so unappealing to watch. The veteran slugger can still take one deep from time to time – a 26-HR season is nice, on its own – but has almost no ability to contribute outside of these occasional pop-offs. Twenty-three of Gallo's 26 RBIs this year have come on home runs. And 14 of them came in the first month. Since April 27th, Gallo – signed to be a run-producing power hitter – has produced 12 RBIs in 45 games. He opened up his second half by going 0-for-3 with three strikeouts in a shutout on Wednesday. (By the way, the same dynamic is in play for Buxton, who's on pace for 26 home runs and 56 RBIs. In the first half, 23 of Buck's 28 runs batted in were on homers. These veteran players are figureheads for an offense that can't seem to accomplish anything outside of occasionally hitting the ball over the fence.) 4. Christian Vázquez is on pace to finish with 2 home runs. The Twins didn't think they were getting any kind of offensive specialist when they signed Vázquez to a three-year contract during the offseason, but thought they were at least acquiring a competent hitter – part of the valuation that pushed them to $30 million in a competitive market. The free agent had slashed .271/.318/.416 over the past three seasons (94 OPS+), and even with a modest step back from that benchmark, he was still gonna be a quality two-way backstop. Instead, Vazquez's offensive game has cratered in Minnesota, where he finished the first half with an OPS+ of 68. He slugged .292 with just one single home run in 180 plate appearances. In the past four seasons Vázquez hit 9, 6, 7, and 23 home runs. His power has suddenly vanished at the age of 32, which doesn't bode terribly well for the rest of his deal here. To be fair, Vázquez's offensive numbers aren't that out of the ordinary for a catcher (the position as a whole is slashing .233/.300/.384 MLB-wide) and his good defense has prevented him from being a total negative. But so far, the Twins have gotten only half the player they hoped they were signing at a crucial spot. 5. Joe Ryan, Sonny Gray, and Pablo Lopez are all on pace for 4.4+ fWAR. Hey, it's not all bad news! The Twins rotation was phenomenal in the first half, led by a trio of frontline-caliber arms who will set the club up well for a playoff series, if some of the above trends are to turn around. Ryan, Gray and Lopez all finished the first half with an fWAR of 2.2 or better, placing each among the top eight in the American League. Here's a list of Twins pitchers who have finished seasons with an fWAR of 4.4 or higher in the past 25 years: Jose Berrios (2019) Phil Hughes (2014) Francisco Liriano (2010) Johan Santana (2004, '05, 06) Brad Radke (2001, '04) That is a "who's who" of the best pitchers and pitching seasons in the post-millennial era of Twins baseball. Only once, in 2004, have the modern Twins had two pitchers of this caliber in same rotation, and never three. If these three can continue to perform the way they have in the first half for the final three months, while Bailey Ober, Kenta Maeda, and others hold down the back end of the rotation, it's going be very hard to give up on this team.