Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

snap4birds

Verified Member
  • Posts

    138
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Reputation Activity

  1. Like
    snap4birds got a reaction from Hunter48 in D-Day is Coming for Twins and Buxton   
    Buxton would be a free agent right now if the Twins hadn't kept him in the minors a few years back, right?  Would the Twins have given him a QO?  If only we could see what that alternate timeline would show (I loved the TV show Community & their alternate timeline episodes).
  2. Like
    snap4birds reacted to Trov in D-Day is Coming for Twins and Buxton   
    What is his fair market value?  You say the Twins need to pay above market, but what is his market?  His side will point to what he did last year, and in some short periods in prior years as to what he can be.  However, the GM's around the league will point to how many games he has played over the years.  He has only played 1 season where you could say he has played a full season, that was 2017 where he played 140 games.  
    Outside of that season, he has played 92, 28, 87, 39(out of 60) 61.  I did not include his first season.  Those are terrible numbers of games played.  Some were due to injury, some where due to production in the early years.  We have 0 evidence he will ever play a full season, and we have no clue what his production will look like as he ages.
    He is hitting his prime now, and he may put up MVP type numbers when healthy for the next 3 seasons, but what about after that?  As his speed starts to drop off, how will that affect his defense, his offense, his overall value?  Will he get more injuries that may cut his career short? 
    His market is so hard to judge because he will be a huge gamble for just about any team.  When healthy for the next 3 years he may be MVP level guy, maybe that goes into his mid-30's, but most players that does not happen.  Maybe he falls off the cliff in his young to mid-30's.  
    I would like to see him signed, but I can understand the risks of paying him huge money for long term.  I wonder what teams out there will be willing to pay him huge money for long term based on his history.  The next CBA may really affect things too.  If teams cannot just absorb his contract when he is in the trainers room teams may not want to bring him in.
    I would also say you always need a back up plan for CF when he is your starter.  However, you cannot justify paying big for two CF, so you need to pay big for a corner guy that can slide over to CF when Buxton is out, because he will be.  You can hope that a young CF is ready to fill in on the cheap.  
    The point is, you cannot just sign him to 7 years and say our CF position is filled for 7 years now, because history will say it is filled for about half a year for next 7 years and you better have a back up ready to step in. 
  3. Like
    snap4birds reacted to wsnydes in Am I wrong? I'd rather the Twins have Martin, Woods Richardson, and $20M per year to spend than Jose Berrios?   
    To me, your point on Berrios being the top arm of the class makes his signing now more curious.  I'm not Berrios though and there's something to be said about the safety of signing.
    The other alternative is that they trade for a pitcher and use that money to pay a current contract or extend him.  It doesn't have to be for a free agent.
  4. Like
    snap4birds reacted to gunnarthor in Am I wrong? I'd rather the Twins have Martin, Woods Richardson, and $20M per year to spend than Jose Berrios?   
    What's so wrong with that? They are the same age, one is in the majors, one is in AA. Before his injury, Baddoo was talked about a lot on the prospect boards as a sneaky good player who will jump up on the top 100 lists. He got hurt so he didn't, but he was perceived as having that talent by at least some evaluators. Martin's ranked somewhere from the mid 30s to the mid 50s in most rankings right now and seen as a strong hit, low power, questionable defensive guy. They are pretty different players and Martin probably has the higher upside but it's not a silly argument to say that Baddoo will be the better major leaguer. 
  5. Like
    snap4birds reacted to Minny505 in What the Hell Are the Twins Doing with Byron Buxton?   
    There has to be a miscommunication somewhere with the source and the authors of the The Athletic article right?
    The holdup has to be $100mil total IN incentives...not $100mil total INCLUDING incentives.
    Right? Right?
  6. Like
    snap4birds reacted to Seth Stohs in CBA Musings (11/12): What’s Happening and What’s Next?   
    They could do a two-part type of thing... After 29 1/2 ... OR after 6 years, whichever is sooner. That way if a guy is called up at 21 and has six full seasons at age 27, he can become a free agent too.  That might be a middle ground. 
  7. Like
    snap4birds reacted to Major League Ready in All Eyes on Free Agent Target Jon Gray   
    I don't see any obsession. There are not any 29 year old healthy stud SPs out there.  Robbie Ray has not exactly been a steady performer but I guess he might qualify.  Stroman is steady but not spectacular.  I guess Gausman would be the other guy we would want long term.  One of those three would be nice.  Now we just have to beat out Houston with $88M coming off the books, the Dodgers with about the same coming off not counting their deadline acquisitions, the Mets with $75M coming off, and the Mariners and Indians who have extremely low payrolls, and of course the Yankees.
  8. Like
    snap4birds reacted to TopGunn#22 in Twins Hire Jayce Tingler as new Bench Coach   
    To me, this sends another, more subtle message.  Tingler could be a "Manager in Waiting" if Rocco doesn't turn the ship around in the near future.
  9. Like
    snap4birds reacted to Brock Beauchamp in How Twins fans have been spoiled by a lack of mediocrity for two decades   
    If we're going to talk about the general weakness of the AL Central, imagine how it must feel to be a fan of one of the teams that hasn't won the division 40% of the time over the past few decades.
    There are undoubtedly advantages to playing in the ALC compared to the ALE but there are also four teams that the Twins trounce in the regular season on a routine basis. What's their excuse?
  10. Like
    snap4birds reacted to Unwinder in So, the Yankees tried to acquire Simmons at the deadline   
    Leaving my error uncorrected because trying to cover it up now would be all the more shameful.
  11. Like
    snap4birds reacted to ashbury in So, the Yankees tried to acquire Simmons at the deadline   
    Any relation to Drew DiMaggio?
  12. Like
    snap4birds reacted to Dman in Edwar Colina Claimed by Rangers   
    I always liked Colina's potential but that is what it always was just potential.  His fastball was hard but always came in pretty straight and he also had trouble controlling it.  His MLB debut although only .1 inning (SSS Alert) appeared to indicate his stuff in its current form wouldn't play at the MLB level.   Obviously some tweaks can change that but he didn't have the look of an elite arm to me.
    It is unfortunate he was hurt this year and we never got to see if he could turn the corner or not.  I kind of feel he is a bit Graterol like with the straight 100 MPH fastball that can be hit and maybe not getting quite the results you might hope.  Factor in the arm injury history and it makes things even more murky.
    I think this comes down to 40 man space and protecting some players with better long term potential.  We saw this year how small the 40 man can feel when you have guys on it that cannot help at the MLB level they are dead weight on there.  I am looking at Duran, Balazovich, Colina, and Chalmers who was on there for a while until he wasn't. That was 4 guys effectively turning the 40 man into a 36 man.  If Ober hadn't made it it would have been a 35 man.  There just isn't a ton of room for wasted space on there so guys that get added need to be close to ready and be able to contribute or it hurts the teams ability to maneuver without losing players in the process.
    If we could reasonably keep Colina without having him on the 40 man I would be all for it. His plus to plus plus slider with his 100 mph fastball makes him a virtual shoe in for the bullpen at some point it seems like just a matter of time.  The only thing that could hold him back is if his arm fails him.
    If this FO is going to take a risk on a player they seem to be willing to sacrifice relievers as losing those types of players seems to hurt less.  I take it this is the same calculated risk to open up 40 man space.
     
  13. Like
    snap4birds reacted to Mark G in 3 Things Learned About the Twins' Farm System in 2021   
    Ah, yes, the 400 pound gorilla in the room - if they can keep their arms healthy.  Way too much of the time, they can't, and it does make me wonder if it is because of the power style at such a young age.  I am old enough to have seen a few different pitching approaches over the eras and my personal favorite was the pitch to contact..  I may be remembering differently than some, but I do not recall anywhere near as many injuries year in and year out throughout the entire organization as you see in this era.  Way too many pitches today, and way too little contact.  And not necessarily swing and miss no contact, but too many fowl balls all game every game.  The other night NY and Tampa played a 1-0 pitchers duel and it still took 3hours and 3minutes.  This is not only turning fans off due to the sheer length, but makes pitchers throw more than I can remember in my life.  Maybe it is because too many pitchers simply don't have the control to throw the ball where they want the contact to be made, so they try to over power everyone, but it sure looks to this observer that the power game also leads to more injuries as well as too many relievers pitching every day.  Starters going 5 inninngs with 90+ pitches and having to be taken out.  Not good for the arm or the game.
    That is just one mans extremely humble opinion.  Thanks for the good post.  
  14. Like
    snap4birds reacted to tony&rodney in End of the Line for Brent Rooker?   
    Brent Rooker is still young enough to evolve into a fine, productive MLB player. A 5-10 year MLB stint is quite an accomplishment for an athlete. He does not need to be an All Star to have an excellent career. The issue for Rooker is his skill set in relationship to the needs of his team. As mentioned, DH is his best position and the Twins have a half dozen players to man the DH spot right now. Rooker also hits right-handed pitchers well so he does not fit in a platoon role easily. He can play left field adequately but increasingly the better teams use better defenders across the outfield. I will add that the athleticism of professional athletes is often severely underrated and anyone who has played against an MLB athlete knows that how they look from the stands or couch is not what is a reality when one is actually playing on the same field; these guys are athletic to a different degree. Naturally, by comparison within MLB, some players are far less skilled. We don't want to compare Rooker to Buxton, but he isn't much different than Kirillof as an outfielder and is more or less the same as Larnach. So the crux of the problem for Rooker is playing time on a team that has so many similar type position players. Rooker may benefit from an opportunity on another team, especially if the NL adds the DH. He would be a valuable additional player in a larger trade with other significant players. Similarly, if others are cleared from the Twins roster, Rooker may fill the DH position decently for the Twins. I don't believe Brent Rooker will be left off of the 40 man roster. He has a future as an MLB player. My scenario sees him as a part of an offseason trade because another team also sees his value. That value is not in a one for one trade but as part of a multi-player transaction.
  15. Like
    snap4birds reacted to se7799 in End of the Line for Brent Rooker?   
    In what world is a slash line of 206/294/413....14% above average?  Wow, if that line is 14% above average, what the heck would below average look like.
  16. Like
    snap4birds reacted to Cap'n Piranha in POLL: Do you believe in tanking?   
    Tanking is what teams do, now that teams have figured out that lowercase 'w' winning is no longer the best way to uppercase 'w' Win.  Certainly, tanking in the NFL/NBA in order to get draft picks is a much more straightforward path than MLB.  That said, it is better to draft higher, and not just in the first round, but in every round.  
    In 2012, the Twins won 2 more games than the Rockies, and 5 more than the Cubs.  Tank better, and they have Bryant or Gray instead of Stewart.  In 2013, the Twins won 3 more games than the White Sox, and the same as the Cubs (but "won" the tiebreaker).  Tank better, and they have Rodon or Schwarber instead of Gordon.  In 2014, the Twins won 6 more than Arizona, 4 more than the Rockies, 3 more than the Rangers, and the same as Houston (and once again "won" the tiebreaker).  Tank better, and they have Swanson, Bregman, or Tucker instead of Jay.
    Now, there is butterfly effect (maybe those players develop completely differently if the Twins are overseeing them), and there's no guarantee the Twins don't still take Stewart, Gordon, and Jay.  There's no guarantee the Twins don't take a different guy that would have still failed (Appel, Tate, Aiken, Kolek, etc.).  But had the Twins lost 20 more games across those 3 seasons, we could have Bryant, Rodon, and Bregman on this team right now, and for the least 4-6 years--that's a huge improvement.
    My perspective is that going into the offseason, every team needs to figure out how realistic the chances are that they win 90 games.  If it's above 50-60%, the goal should then be to figure out how to win 100 games.  If it's below 50-60%, the goal should be to figure out how to lose 100 games, while frontloading the rebuild (that means every guy with less than 3 years of control left either gets extended or traded).  The worst place a team can be is in the 70-90 win range; if you can't accelerate out of that, you need to slam on the brakes, and refill your tank to you can floor it in 1-3 years, and not 2-4 more years after that lost season.
  17. Like
    snap4birds reacted to Brock Beauchamp in Maggi returned to minors without getting into a game   
    Weak, man. Get that man a B-Ref page, let him play one game!
  18. Like
    snap4birds reacted to Mike Sixel in How quickly we Forget   
    What analysts are you talking about. Every one I read said it made sense to deal Berrios. They admitted they didn't know if the FO planned to rebuild or retool, but that in no way implies they don't have a plan. Hell, they might have changed their plan when Maeda went down. Changing your plan as the result of events makes you smart, not wishy washy.
    As for the FO, I want to be clear here.....I don't love their drafts. And, the jury is out on their ability. But that's not the point of this thread. People are literally posting they don't know poop about pitching, and only sell the future.
    They took the ERA from one of the worst, to top 10 in short order....they won two divisions. 
  19. Like
    snap4birds reacted to Brock Beauchamp in How quickly we Forget   
    We're actually pretty close in opinion on this, I suspect.... where you're slightly bearish on the front office, I'm slightly bullish but we agree there are problems that need to be resolved.
    But one thing I think everyone here should be able to agree on is that neither Falvey nor Levine are idiots.
    And if they're not idiots running a billion dollar organization, I'm able to infer that they do, in fact, have a larger plan they are orchestrating, even if I can't see it clearly from where I'm standing.
  20. Like
    snap4birds reacted to Brock Beauchamp in How quickly we Forget   
    Pitching performances across the system, not only in Minnesota. For reasons you pointed out, that wouldn’t be a fair way to evaluate them next year.
    But 2022 will be their sixth draft and they need to start impressing us with the pipeline. 
  21. Like
    snap4birds reacted to wsnydes in How quickly we Forget   
    I've said this in other threads of similar nature, but this FO was tasked with rebuilding the organization from the ground up and ownership has never been of the impatient ilk.  So, they're going to get the opportunity to see this through.  And they've made no indication that they won't.  The game had passed the previous regime's pitching philosophy by, so it's going to take time to build that pipeline.  I'm not saying that I'm sold that it's happening, but this FO is going to get that opportunity.  They appear to be on the cusp of that coming to fruition, so jettisoning them now makes little sense.  If it doesn't work out, then the decision is easy.  If it does, the decision is easy.  They're at that tipping point right now.  At this particular point in time, the effort is incomplete so making a decision one way or another makes little sense.
  22. Haha
    snap4birds reacted to Dodecahedron in Did the FO misevaluate their pitching additions?   
    Gosh I sure hope so.  If this all went to plan, I don't even know what to say.
  23. Like
    snap4birds got a reaction from h2oface in Ex Twins in 2021: Where Are They Now?   
    Luis Gil already has 1.1 bWAR for the Yankees.  I didn't even know he was on their MLB roster yet.  I think they sent him down but are planning to bring him back up for his next start.  (Story I saw said he was the 27th man on his start last night.)
  24. Like
    snap4birds reacted to IndianaTwin in Twins to Promote Olympic Medalist Joe Ryan, Slated to Start Wednesday   
    If he matches Sal Maglie's career, I'll be happy. 
  25. Like
    snap4birds reacted to Vanimal46 in Colóme: What Happened?   
    He’s been a punching bag all year, for good reason. There was no one who contributed more to the rough start in April than him. He has stabilized in recent months, but he’s not producing for the money we paid him for. The underlying stats show he’s getting by on smoke and mirrors and he will certainly be bought out this winter. 
    In the past I was a big proponent of signing established relievers for big money in free agency. I’ve since done a 180 and think it doesn’t matter what their track record was. Relievers are the kings of SSS and who knows when they’ll be great or suck. I certainly don’t. 
×
×
  • Create New...