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Minny505

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  1. Like
    Minny505 reacted to ToddlerHarmon in No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky   
    I love this. However, the conclusion to draw, IMO, is not "the FO should decide to sign guys like this", because the market reality is they can't make that decision. They have to hope the Yankees, Dodgers, et al, allow such a signing.
    The real conclusion to draw is the MLB has to make it possible for the Twins and similar teams to pursue such FAs. Whether through CBA, revenue sharing, national media contracts, or something. It is simply getting ridiculous.
  2. Like
    Minny505 reacted to jkcarew in No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky   
    Great job…lots of work and interesting numbers.
    Still, there’s great risk in mid-market teams extending huge long-term deals. Doesn’t mean it should never be done, but there’s huge risk. It’s called opportunity cost. What if you’re wrong?…and even if you’re right, you create other issues which can materialize sometimes sooner rather than later.
    We can pretend the Twins (and most other teams) can or ‘should’ look at it as in this analysis. But in fact only 2 or 3 teams can operate in this kind of a vacuum where the top guys can be targeted on a consistent basis.
     
  3. Like
    Minny505 got a reaction from DJL44 in Nick "Clutch" Gordon - Solidifying His Place on the Team   
    Love the satire here. Looking forward to more.
  4. Like
    Minny505 got a reaction from wabene in No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky   
    Desclifani is the product of Giants devil magic. He was the kind of signing we would have all been frustrated with and may not be doing what he's doing with any other team.

    Ray needed a pillow contract after the disaster of 2020 and he was still on the underside of 30. This is exactly the kind of signing the Twins should be making on one year deals. High ceiling potential here.

    Rodon is an anomaly. This kind of career turnaround in one offseason is a once-a-decade event in MLB. 

    Walker was a fawned over as a FA this past offseason by the Twins Daily faithful and was expected to easily get more than $30mil by national writers. That he was signed so late in the offseason for only $20mil was considered a steal by the Mets before the ink even dried. I remember the national podcast voices exclaiming a collective "WTF!?" over this signing. There has to be more to the story that we don't know because this signing for this amount doesn't make sense. It would be like the Twins getting Jon Gray this upcoming offseason for 2/20. 

    You also mentioned Kluber and Paxton. Even with the injuries, either one would have been better spent money than Happ+Shoe. Signing a make-good, high injury risk pitcher with a high ceiling is exactly the kind of signing the Twins should be looking to make, especially this upcoming offseason. 

    The problem with Happ, Shoemaker, and their ilk is the upside that can be gained from their signing. Twins need to target pitchers with high upside in FA, not their mean production. At best, the Happ signing is a 4.20 ERA pitcher. At best Kluber is a 3.10 ERA pitcher. The cost is nearly the same for either. Sure, the floor for Kluber is lower, but that just means a AAA guy ready to prove themselves takes his place. That beats 20 starts of 6.60 ERA pitching from Happ, as nearly every pitcher to pitch in Happ's spot since he was traded has performed better.

    This was also the beauty of the Pineda signing. His ceiling is a 3.50 ERA pitcher. Sure, he's missed a lot of time, but he's generally been outstanding when on the bump. We need more of that high risk/high reward in our FA pitching contracts.
  5. Like
    Minny505 got a reaction from heresthething in No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky   
    Desclifani is the product of Giants devil magic. He was the kind of signing we would have all been frustrated with and may not be doing what he's doing with any other team.

    Ray needed a pillow contract after the disaster of 2020 and he was still on the underside of 30. This is exactly the kind of signing the Twins should be making on one year deals. High ceiling potential here.

    Rodon is an anomaly. This kind of career turnaround in one offseason is a once-a-decade event in MLB. 

    Walker was a fawned over as a FA this past offseason by the Twins Daily faithful and was expected to easily get more than $30mil by national writers. That he was signed so late in the offseason for only $20mil was considered a steal by the Mets before the ink even dried. I remember the national podcast voices exclaiming a collective "WTF!?" over this signing. There has to be more to the story that we don't know because this signing for this amount doesn't make sense. It would be like the Twins getting Jon Gray this upcoming offseason for 2/20. 

    You also mentioned Kluber and Paxton. Even with the injuries, either one would have been better spent money than Happ+Shoe. Signing a make-good, high injury risk pitcher with a high ceiling is exactly the kind of signing the Twins should be looking to make, especially this upcoming offseason. 

    The problem with Happ, Shoemaker, and their ilk is the upside that can be gained from their signing. Twins need to target pitchers with high upside in FA, not their mean production. At best, the Happ signing is a 4.20 ERA pitcher. At best Kluber is a 3.10 ERA pitcher. The cost is nearly the same for either. Sure, the floor for Kluber is lower, but that just means a AAA guy ready to prove themselves takes his place. That beats 20 starts of 6.60 ERA pitching from Happ, as nearly every pitcher to pitch in Happ's spot since he was traded has performed better.

    This was also the beauty of the Pineda signing. His ceiling is a 3.50 ERA pitcher. Sure, he's missed a lot of time, but he's generally been outstanding when on the bump. We need more of that high risk/high reward in our FA pitching contracts.
  6. Like
    Minny505 reacted to BD57 in No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky   
    Appreciate the analysis.
    Only problem:  it's built on an assumption which "might not be so," namely, the "top level" free agent starters would sign with the Twins if actively pursued, offered competitive money, etc.
    Based on the last few free agent cycles, I believe the Twins are at a massive disadvantage in pursuing the "top level" FA Starter compared to the largest market teams (like the Yankees & Dodgers), that the Twins won't even be considered by the "top level' FA Starters unless the Twins offer significantly better contract terms compared to those teams.
    Further, there's a good chance the Twins wouldn't be considered even if they did so.
    For whatever reason - beyond pure contract dollars - those guys appear to want to be in the "big markets":  whether it's "better chance of winning there" (the top-level guys are typically at a stage in their career where winning a World Series is higher on their list of priorities), or "More off-field earning potential," or what, I think those guys generally aren't interested in coming to Minnesota & the Twins would have to offer significantly better contract terms to "get them interested."
    Which is a hard thing for a smaller market team to do. 
  7. Haha
    Minny505 reacted to Brock Beauchamp in No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky   
    I appreciate the ability to be awarded an F- in this grading.
    ”You were so bad, we created a new bottom rung for you to occupy.”
  8. Like
    Minny505 got a reaction from ToddlerHarmon in No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky   
    Desclifani is the product of Giants devil magic. He was the kind of signing we would have all been frustrated with and may not be doing what he's doing with any other team.

    Ray needed a pillow contract after the disaster of 2020 and he was still on the underside of 30. This is exactly the kind of signing the Twins should be making on one year deals. High ceiling potential here.

    Rodon is an anomaly. This kind of career turnaround in one offseason is a once-a-decade event in MLB. 

    Walker was a fawned over as a FA this past offseason by the Twins Daily faithful and was expected to easily get more than $30mil by national writers. That he was signed so late in the offseason for only $20mil was considered a steal by the Mets before the ink even dried. I remember the national podcast voices exclaiming a collective "WTF!?" over this signing. There has to be more to the story that we don't know because this signing for this amount doesn't make sense. It would be like the Twins getting Jon Gray this upcoming offseason for 2/20. 

    You also mentioned Kluber and Paxton. Even with the injuries, either one would have been better spent money than Happ+Shoe. Signing a make-good, high injury risk pitcher with a high ceiling is exactly the kind of signing the Twins should be looking to make, especially this upcoming offseason. 

    The problem with Happ, Shoemaker, and their ilk is the upside that can be gained from their signing. Twins need to target pitchers with high upside in FA, not their mean production. At best, the Happ signing is a 4.20 ERA pitcher. At best Kluber is a 3.10 ERA pitcher. The cost is nearly the same for either. Sure, the floor for Kluber is lower, but that just means a AAA guy ready to prove themselves takes his place. That beats 20 starts of 6.60 ERA pitching from Happ, as nearly every pitcher to pitch in Happ's spot since he was traded has performed better.

    This was also the beauty of the Pineda signing. His ceiling is a 3.50 ERA pitcher. Sure, he's missed a lot of time, but he's generally been outstanding when on the bump. We need more of that high risk/high reward in our FA pitching contracts.
  9. Like
    Minny505 got a reaction from ToddlerHarmon in No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky   
    The Twins would have to pay more than 25m/yr to lock up Darvish. He doesn't have a price tag, it's a bidding system. By default the price would have been at minimum 26 per. Then the Cubs counter. Twins have to pay more to stay in the game and a bidding war ensues. In 2018, contract offers being equal, Darvish signs with the Cubs 100% of the time.
    The Twins have to out-do any bidding on any pitcher right now because half the teams in the league are better poised to win in the short term than the Twins. 

    Yet, as you point out, even paying 4, 5, or 6mil more per year still makes it worth it vs bargain bin shopping. 

    BTW, I want to compliment you again @bean5302. This is the kind of numbers breakdown that drives me to read sites like Twins Daily. I am really looking forward to reading more of your work in the future. Hopefully I can add an email notification for just posts by you...and if not, hopefully a moderator is reading this and can work with the development team to implement a "follow of your favorite writers" notification feature.
  10. Like
    Minny505 got a reaction from ToddlerHarmon in No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky   
    I love this study @bean5302. I would like to know what your qualifications are for the Top 8 Frontline starters. Was it total dollars? Dollars per year? Was this cherry picked at all? I hope you see this and can respond.

    There is a point where the investment does become a bad investment and the Twins, due to total financial resources actually available before taking a loss on team ownership, will always get outbid by deeper pockets.
    For example, every one of those SPs, sans Greinke, was signed by a team up against the soft cap. This means if the Twins need to throw an extra $4mil a year at Darvish to sign him, that becomes a bad contract, looking more like a Mike Pelfrey level signing than what the Cubs got. 

    Can the Twins be a better team using that kind of approach? I don't think they can. Kind of depressing. 

    I'd like to see a recreation of the same study, but with solid second tier starters. I'm thinking somewhere between $60mil and $100mil, such as a Hyun Jin Ryu signing. What is the value of those contracts and can the Twins compete there? 

    Again, great insight and breakdown. Looking forward to more!
  11. Like
    Minny505 got a reaction from smartfred in No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky   
    I love this study @bean5302. I would like to know what your qualifications are for the Top 8 Frontline starters. Was it total dollars? Dollars per year? Was this cherry picked at all? I hope you see this and can respond.

    There is a point where the investment does become a bad investment and the Twins, due to total financial resources actually available before taking a loss on team ownership, will always get outbid by deeper pockets.
    For example, every one of those SPs, sans Greinke, was signed by a team up against the soft cap. This means if the Twins need to throw an extra $4mil a year at Darvish to sign him, that becomes a bad contract, looking more like a Mike Pelfrey level signing than what the Cubs got. 

    Can the Twins be a better team using that kind of approach? I don't think they can. Kind of depressing. 

    I'd like to see a recreation of the same study, but with solid second tier starters. I'm thinking somewhere between $60mil and $100mil, such as a Hyun Jin Ryu signing. What is the value of those contracts and can the Twins compete there? 

    Again, great insight and breakdown. Looking forward to more!
  12. Like
    Minny505 reacted to Tim in No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky   
    Honestly at the time, Happ was a lot safer of a signing than taking a flier on Kluber. Happ had pitched to an ERA below 4, 5/6 previous years. No one expected him to be as bad as he was. Kluber was coming off surgery and hadn't pitched professionally in 2 years. Interesting thoughts on the Walker signing .. Maybe there is a conspiracy ..
    This comes back to depth. The front office knew that they couldn't get by with AAA guys making spot starts so went after quantity. I believe this is the case for the previous years as well. 
  13. Like
    Minny505 got a reaction from bean5302 in No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky   
    I love this study @bean5302. I would like to know what your qualifications are for the Top 8 Frontline starters. Was it total dollars? Dollars per year? Was this cherry picked at all? I hope you see this and can respond.

    There is a point where the investment does become a bad investment and the Twins, due to total financial resources actually available before taking a loss on team ownership, will always get outbid by deeper pockets.
    For example, every one of those SPs, sans Greinke, was signed by a team up against the soft cap. This means if the Twins need to throw an extra $4mil a year at Darvish to sign him, that becomes a bad contract, looking more like a Mike Pelfrey level signing than what the Cubs got. 

    Can the Twins be a better team using that kind of approach? I don't think they can. Kind of depressing. 

    I'd like to see a recreation of the same study, but with solid second tier starters. I'm thinking somewhere between $60mil and $100mil, such as a Hyun Jin Ryu signing. What is the value of those contracts and can the Twins compete there? 

    Again, great insight and breakdown. Looking forward to more!
  14. Like
    Minny505 got a reaction from bean5302 in No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky   
    The Twins would have to pay more than 25m/yr to lock up Darvish. He doesn't have a price tag, it's a bidding system. By default the price would have been at minimum 26 per. Then the Cubs counter. Twins have to pay more to stay in the game and a bidding war ensues. In 2018, contract offers being equal, Darvish signs with the Cubs 100% of the time.
    The Twins have to out-do any bidding on any pitcher right now because half the teams in the league are better poised to win in the short term than the Twins. 

    Yet, as you point out, even paying 4, 5, or 6mil more per year still makes it worth it vs bargain bin shopping. 

    BTW, I want to compliment you again @bean5302. This is the kind of numbers breakdown that drives me to read sites like Twins Daily. I am really looking forward to reading more of your work in the future. Hopefully I can add an email notification for just posts by you...and if not, hopefully a moderator is reading this and can work with the development team to implement a "follow of your favorite writers" notification feature.
  15. Like
    Minny505 got a reaction from Aerodeliria in No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky   
    The Twins would have to pay more than 25m/yr to lock up Darvish. He doesn't have a price tag, it's a bidding system. By default the price would have been at minimum 26 per. Then the Cubs counter. Twins have to pay more to stay in the game and a bidding war ensues. In 2018, contract offers being equal, Darvish signs with the Cubs 100% of the time.
    The Twins have to out-do any bidding on any pitcher right now because half the teams in the league are better poised to win in the short term than the Twins. 

    Yet, as you point out, even paying 4, 5, or 6mil more per year still makes it worth it vs bargain bin shopping. 

    BTW, I want to compliment you again @bean5302. This is the kind of numbers breakdown that drives me to read sites like Twins Daily. I am really looking forward to reading more of your work in the future. Hopefully I can add an email notification for just posts by you...and if not, hopefully a moderator is reading this and can work with the development team to implement a "follow of your favorite writers" notification feature.
  16. Like
    Minny505 reacted to bean5302 in No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky   
    I was looking at starters who were likely to command $100MM+. So this year, Scherzer and Greinke probably wouldn't make the list. 2015 Greinke was seen as an overpay and the Diamondbacks signing him kind of stunned everybody, but I don't recall anybody forecasting doom and gloom. Adding $4MM/year to Darvish would be way more than needed for anybody to sign him, but even if that were to happen, Darvish would still be the pitcher he is right now (ace level) and the cost per win would go from $9.9 per WAR (B-Grade) to $12.0MM per WAR (C-Grade). Keep in mind, that also includes Darvish's wasted 2018 due to misdiagnosed injury. Ultimately, Darvish is probably the most stellar example of how ace pitchers are still a good value because this already paints him in a bad light. If you evaulate Darvish based on median WAR, he cost $3.4MM / WAR which is ludicrously great. Adding $4MM per year to his salary and dividing by his median WAR is still only $4.1MM / WAR. He'd still be ludicrously great.
    I'm not sure why the Twins would have to be at the luxury tax threshold? They already spent $40MM in 2018 on free agent/acquisition arms. Darvish cost $25MM. Even if the Twins decided to overpay $4MM per year for no good reason, in 2018 Darvish still would have cost $11MM less than what the Twins were already spending. Also consider the Twins were expecting to spend $41MM on FA/acquisition arms in 2020. Darvish and Wheeler combined only cost $44MM. Now, which would you rather have in 2020? I'd take column 1 all day, every day... even if I don't like losing Maeda. They cost essentially the same money.
    Darvish vs. Odorizzi Wheeler vs. Maeda Berrios vs. Berrios Jax vs. Pineda Dobnak vs. Dobnak Ober vs. Hill/Bailey
  17. Like
    Minny505 reacted to LanceJS in Did the Twins Fleece Tampa Twice?   
    Sorry, but even if Ryan turns out to be at least a serviceable starter (or better) AND if the Rays win the championship, no, the Twins didn't "fleece" the Rays.  Not only is it too early to tell if Ryan will be good, it is also to early to determine if the price TB paid for Cruz was worth it, as they are going for it all this year.   And I ask the same question here that I ask with every trade - why does every trade have to end with a "loser" and a "winner" like the games?  What's wrong if both teams get what they wanted from a trade? 
  18. Like
    Minny505 reacted to TopGunn#22 in No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky   
    You make a great point.  The Twins have always spent for "QUANTITY" not "QUALITY."  It's like Slick Rick of the Vikings always trading back to accumulate more and more 6th and 7th rounders instead of just drafting Tyler Johnson (#3 WR spot SOLVED) when he was sitting there.
    I   GUARANTEE  the Twins, if they spend the money on bringing Max Scherzer here,  he will be worth every penny !!  Now I get that Max would be crazy not to just stick with the Dodgers who will pay him more and give him a better chance for a World Series ring, but that's not my point.  The point is, when you spend on QUALITY you lessen the risk.  The wins and innings that kind of SP/RP give you add up to tremendous value for what you spent.  Honestly, I don't know why this FO doesn't understand that.  I thought they were brought here to replace the antiquated thinking of the Terry Ryan regime.  Maybe this is a Pohlad "thing."  It's hard to understand how the Twins have never figured this out.
  19. Like
    Minny505 reacted to mike8791 in No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky   
    Bean, thanks for the data that supports those of us who feel FA is only a fool's game for teams like the Twins emphasizing bargains rather than quality.  The big question is whether this losing operating philosophy stems from Pohlad's tight-fistedness or incompetence of the FO.  
    My guess is this past futility reflects more on ownership.  Pohlad's banking background seems to inhibit him from foregoing short term profits instead of investing in long term success.  Of course, I cannot possibly know what JP is thinking, but the results speak for themselves.  He hires guys like Ryan and Falvey who share his bargain basement outlook on spending.  Ryan(at least in his first go-round) proved adept at some shrewd trades and had some drafting success.  Likewise, Falvey has acquired some good pitching vis the trade route(drafting success TBD).  
     
    Basically, the problem is Pohlad's leadership in not enunciating an operating philosophy that would allow for the team to be legitimate contenders for a World Championship.  No, Ryan and Falvey don't get free passes here, either.  Their unwillingness to make some significant mid-season trades that might have elevated an already competitive club into a legitimate WS contender has been a glaring weakness for 20 years.  Me thinks we have a two-headed monster : a passive owner who looks at the P&L statement as the end-all to his stewardship and risk-averse GM's who are selected because of basic agreement with this "don't-rock-the-boat" approach.  The results speak for themselves, not just this year, but for the last 18 years of zero playoff success.
  20. Like
    Minny505 reacted to a-wan in Believing in Ober   
    Dude, chill with the attitude. Or keep pounding your head into the wall, eventually maybe the CTE kicks in and makes you happy.
     
    If Ober can stay at the 93'ish velocity he can be a legitimate starter.
  21. Like
    Minny505 reacted to 4twinsJA in Believing in Ober   
    I really like Ober, not that he is a future CY Young candidate or even top of the rotation pitcher, but a solid starting pitcher for Twins. Ober's case is a good argument against needing X amount of time or innings at each level before someone can advance. 
  22. Like
    Minny505 reacted to RpR in 2022 team is mostly set up at this point   
    "I don't think there's an exact science," Hinch said about moving Torkelson and Greene to Toledo. "You can't predict how things are going to be. You call them up, and they get off to a really hot start, then you kept them down there too long. You call them up and they get off to a dry spell and they're not very good early, then you rushed them. There's no perfect way to predict exactly how they're going to respond or what the right time is."
    This article:  Detroit Tigers promote Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene, Ryan Kreidler to Triple-A Toledo (yahoo.com)
    with A.J.HInch of the Detroit Tigers is about moving rookies from AA to AAA much less the Big Show. 
    This article shows moving these players around is not a simple -- Why aren't they moving so and so because I think they should  --  so much rhetoric is about here but says why and how difficult it actually is to do so and not screw things up worse for the player or team. --- A good read.
  23. Like
    Minny505 reacted to tony&rodney in 2022 team is mostly set up at this point   
    It doesn't seem like the Twins are aiming for a $50-75 million payroll but it could happen. Twins Daily is restless because of the disaster that was April and May but I am still thinking that $140 million is likely too.
    Every player is available, a minimum of two pitchers need to come via free agency or trade as well as a few good relief pitchers and, hopefully,  a shortstop added. Buxton is a key as well. Starting 2022 with four rookie starting pitchers is a long shot. We don't have to worry because someone else (Falvine) will take of everything.
  24. Like
    Minny505 reacted to yeahyabetcha in 2022 team is mostly set up at this point   
    Just giving up on Sano and Rooker?
  25. Like
    Minny505 reacted to Tim in The Man, The Beard, The Legend: Jake Cave.   
    Jake Cave is pretty bad and has been for a while now. Obviously it stings more to know the Twins gave up Luis Gil for him and Lamonte Wade was essentially given away to keep him around.
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