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Wizard11

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  1. Like
    Wizard11 reacted to bean5302 in Former Twins Cooperstown Case: David Ortiz   
    This topic has been previously covered. I don't think it's nearly as polarizing as you do. The case for Ortiz and steroids is one of the weakest out there and only the most hard core anti-steroid writers will consider it IMHO. Nothing from Canseco's book. No positive tests from 2003-2016. No known BALCO scandal ties. No known Biogenesis scandal ties. Ortiz played 85% of his career and his entire Red Sox career after testing and penalties were implemented.
    Ortiz will be in the Hall of Fame. He won't be a first ballot guy, I don't think because his overall WAR numbers aren't good enough for that, but he was one of the most prolific hitters in baseball after the year 2000. Ortiz has compiled more than 50 fWAR and 55 bWAR in his career. For a full time career DH (Ortiz completed only 166 of 2,408 games in his career at 1B)? That's a very rare bird.
  2. Like
    Wizard11 got a reaction from howeda7 in Get Ready for the Opposite of Joe Mauer   
    Even Jim Pohlad seems to be backing away from this one.  It is time for some good old fashioned owner meddling.  
  3. Like
    Wizard11 reacted to Brock Beauchamp in Is this front office borderline hostile to "not their" guys?   
    I honestly don't understand what the hell is going on over at 1 Twins Way right now. While I was mildly in favor of the Berríos trade at the time, that trade is a lot harder to swallow in light of Jose signing on through most of the rest of his career for $120m.
    This front office didn't hesitate to give an obviously aging Josh Donaldson $95m so what the hell was the holdup with giving Jose, a hometown star, $25m more over a bunch more seasons that will see him exit the contract at roughly the same age Donaldson was when he signed his contract?
    Never mind the apparent cluster**** with Buxton right now. We've heard rumblings over $100m being a sticking point, which is only $5m more than they gave a mid-30s Josh Donaldson.
    Don't get me wrong, I'm not blasting the Donaldson contract, I'm only wondering why that was able to get done with little theatrics while Berrios and Buxton seem to face insurmountable hurdles while both are still well shy of 30 years old, never mind their already-existing attachment within Twins Territory.
    Now that I think of it, this front office hasn't signed a single hometown player to a multi-year deal, as least that I can recall.
    Again, what the hell?!?!?!
    I'm becoming increasingly convinced that this front office is willing to pay for "their guy" but become obsinate about any existing Twins player that fans know and actively enjoy watching play. We've bought jerseys of these players, we have emotional connections to them, there are a dozen reasons to keep any number of them over constantly washing laundry via free agency.
    This is not a good look for a spectator-driven sport that makes its money from fan engagement.
  4. Like
    Wizard11 reacted to dxpavelka in Get Ready for the Opposite of Joe Mauer   
    We'll soon be looking up and seeing that Buxton & Berrios are both signed to long term extensions for a combined total of less than Carlos Correa.  And we'll be HOPING that a prospect pans out.  Good Luck.
  5. Like
    Wizard11 got a reaction from DocBauer in Trade Target: Chris Bassitt   
    I like the idea of high quality pitchers on short term contracts.  We have one of the deeper starting pitching pipelines in baseball which seems to be getting forgotten.  I feel the disappointment of the Berrios signing but that trade may come to look brilliant. The Thor signing bothered me more as I feel that the quality starting pitchers available on 1 year contracts is a short list.  I would be happy to hear that we traded for any of the 3 SPs presumed to be available from Oakland, as well as the Reds or Marlins SPs.
    Every offseason there are a number of fans that think the Twins should be in on the very top of the starting pitching market and are angry when we are not.  The list of teams that get to shop in that aisle of $30mm+/yr pitchers is about 8 teams.  Moreover I can not recall a top SP FA ever clamoring to pitch in MN.  Being perpetually upset at the FO for not taking steps that are not even on the table is ludicrous. 
    The Cheap Pohlad saw is equally lame.  They may be perceived as mega rich but they are not obligated to spend for the entertainment of others.  All the owners could spend more but most scale their payroll to the size of the market revenues.  We don't have it any worse than the majority of teams in MLB.   I think it sucks that their is no financial parity in MLB.  To me that detracts from the game of baseball.  just my .02$
  6. Like
    Wizard11 reacted to LA VIkes Fan in Analyzing the José Berríos Extension from Minnesota’s Perspective   
    Well, it sure looks like the kind of deal that the Twins that should have been willing and able to make either last year or this off-season. Add into that the fact that Thor has signed a one-year deal with the Angels for $21 million and I think we know the price of pitching this off-season. Any thoughts of Stroman or Ray signing for less than $22 – 25 million a season over at least three or four years, and probably more like five, are gone. Even guys like Jon Gray are going to cost more like $17 million a year, not $14 or 15 million a year. 
    It is a tough day to be a Twins fan. It is becoming more and more clear that the current regime is either badly underestimating the market cost for starting pitching of various types or ownership is unwilling to commit to the market price for pitching. We can all rail about how these guys are "overpaid" or "not worth the money" but frankly that's all irrelevant noise. The market is what the market is. We can either pay the market price and in the case of the Twins, probably a small premium over that due to the weather, last year's bad results, and the lack of ancillary financial opportunities, or we simply won't get anyone. Given that the Twins don't even seem to have been in on what appear to be not overly generous contracts to Rodriguez and Thor, and were not really in on what now appears to be a reasonable price to Berrios before trading him, it is very hard to imagine that the team will belong to pay the necessary freight to sign even a second tier free-agent starting pitcher.
    I think the next couple of weeks before the current CBA expires and all free-agent activity stops will be fascinating for the Twins. The timetable is now accelerated; they have to make a decision as to whether we want to be competitive in 2022/2023, or tear it all down and go into a full rebuild. I really think it's a binary choice. To me, some middle ground where we sign a couple of number three type starters and proclaim that were ready to go is not only a bad choice, it's effectively a rebuild. Maybe I'm wrong and we are close to a trade for Sonny Gray or Castillo from the Reds, or maybe someone from Miami, but it sure looks like we are out of the free agency sweepstakes almost before it even really began.
    My prediction (admittedly based upon being irritated by today's news ) - this is the start of the teardown. We won't be able to sign Buxton and he will be traded. Once that happens, we will trade Donaldson rather than pay him $25 million to hit 4th on a sub .500 team. The FO will gush about the "great" prospect return for those two, and move forward with trading either Sano, Garver or Kepler, or perhaps all three, for more prospects. The cycle starts anew. The sad thing is that I could get behind that strategy if the team was honest and said we think we need to tear down and rebuild. What makes this hard to stomach is the public statements about how were going to reload and be competitive in 2022, followed by news that shows we aren't really even making an effort to reload. The good news is I live in Southern California so if Thor works out, maybe the Angels will be fun to watch this year for change.
     
  7. Haha
    Wizard11 reacted to NatteringNabob in Twins Claim RHP Jharel Cotton   
    Hopefully not onto his back
  8. Haha
    Wizard11 reacted to Monticore in Twins Claim RHP Jharel Cotton   
    Where would the poor Turtle go if he was dropped? 
  9. Like
    Wizard11 reacted to gunnarthor in The Ryan Pressly trade is starting to look pretty good   
    This might be some slight repackaging of the trade to the fanbase in that Alaca was supposed to be a starter and now we're resigned ourselves to hoping he's a 60-70 inning relief pitcher. He did look good at the end of the year. He'll be 26 next year so he's pretty much what he is. Celestino's failures at the majors were expected but he's been impressive at AAA. Looks like a worst case scenario is 4th outfielder. It's a solid return.
    But the problem with the trade goes a bit more than that. It was clear that the Twins didn't know what they had in Pressly, he took off in Houston and then he signed a team friendly extension to stay there. He made two all-star teams and closed out a world series. In four years with Houston he's managed over 5 WAR in about 160 innings (not counting 22 post-season games), In 85 innings, Alaca hasn't reached 1 WAR.  The problem was, once again, this FO failed to value the talent they had in the system. 
  10. Haha
    Wizard11 reacted to gunnarthor in The Ryan Pressly trade is starting to look pretty good   
    But I think this is part of the pattern. Ynoa for Garcia? Gil for Cave? Baddoo, Wells, Goodman, Chargois (and others) for nothing? The Escobar and Dozier trades don't look great. 3 lottery tickets for Dyson? Kintzler for Watson? Dumping Hughes and a comp pick to save payroll? Harper for McMahon? Even the Graterol and the comp for Maeda is looking bad. Each of these moves are, individually, defensible. But, man, they aren't great moves.
    For me, it's a sign that the Twins FO doesn't evaluate talent correctly and, worse, fails to understand the talent it has. 
  11. Like
    Wizard11 reacted to Brock Beauchamp in In Defense of the Twins Front Office   
    My problems with the front office don't have a lot to do with this season in Minnesota, at least not directly. They made some mistakes, did dumb stuff, was slapped around for it. That happens, now let's see how they rebound next season. But...
    1. They've shown to be pretty bad at self-evaluation of the organization. They're routinely trading or waiving or leaving unprotected players that immediately turn around and have success elsewhere. Their trades from their first two seasons, 2017-2018, are showing mixed results at best. I can forgive them a Baddoo but not multiple Baddoos over only a few seasons.
    2. People are being rather unfair with the pitching timeline (there are currently only five pitchers from that 2017 draft with >1 career rWAR, pitching takes time) and I've been quite patient with the results, particularly with Covid. But in the wake of Covid, we have over half a MiLB season to evaluate and let's just say they're not blowing my socks off with these results. Right about now is when we should be excited to see the coming wave of prospects but what we're really excited about is other teams' prospects that the Twins gave away high-end MLB assets to control. That's not an encouraging sign.
    3. This is tied into #2 but... Beau Burrows. And a thousand other players like him in 2021. It's time to wipe out these fringe acquisitions and promote from within. If they don't see what they have right now, they won't know what they have to start 2022, either. And while it's primarily a problem with pitchers, there is zero reason for Andrelton Simmons to be on this roster right now. Play Gordon, IL Donaldson, call up Miranda... shuffle things up because record no longer matters in 2021. I'll forgive the front office for everything going to hell in a handbasket in the immediate follow-up to 2020 but their responses are almost as disappointing as the failures that led us to this point.
    I'm not ready to move on from them yet but where I was generally positive about them one year ago, I'm am equally as negative today. It feels like they're operating without a coherent plan right now and that's possibly the worst trait a front office can have in a time like this. They need to commit to a decision and move in that direction.
  12. Like
    Wizard11 reacted to mikelink45 in In Defense of the Twins Front Office   
    With baseball it is always wait and see.  Our fans are in shock - preseason favorites to compete for the title, news of signings to put us over the playoff edge, a seemingly complacent approach to the BP and the fans who had the faith entering the season found themselves floundering before the end of the first month.  Fans cannot fire the FO, but they can complain - it is there right.  The problem is, they can also stop listening, stop attending, and stop caring.  The challenge for this FO is to not just get the team winning again, but to get the fans back so that they can then start to add to the fanbase.  
  13. Like
    Wizard11 reacted to Major League Ready in In Defense of the Twins Front Office   
    Actually, there is no denying it went very poorly but blowing it suggests there were much better options.  I have asked twice now for those who are calling out the pitching acquisitions to articulate a plan (in hindsight) that would have put this team in contention.  Pitchers that were actually traded and free agents we could have signed.
    Were we going to get Wainwright away from STL?
    James Paxton pitched 1 inning
    Garret Richards’s has a 5.22 REA and a WHIP of 1.65
    Drew Smyly has been decent with a 4.5 ERA / 1.45 WHIP / .6 WAR
    Corey Kluber pitched 50 innings and is now on the 60 day IL
    Charlie Morton has been good but his geographic preference is well known so that was not going to happen.
    Mike Minor has an ERA of 5.39 and .3 WAR
    Jake Odorizzi was a popular choice here.  His 4.95 ERA and 0 WAR would not have helped.
    The guy I wanted (Taijuan Walker) has been good but he got no support here when I floated him as an option.
    We could have traded for Blake Snell like so many here insisted was a no brainer.  We could have given up a bunch of prospects for a replacement level player.
    The same is true for a lot of the BP options.  Rosenthal / Clippard / Romo / Etc
    There was nothing wrong with the Simmons signing.  He has had a bad year or is in decline.  We should not sign most free agents if the possibility of decline makes it a bad decision.  Sometimes reasonable decisions don't pan out in baseball.  There is a credible argument that the choices that were popular here would have left the team in worse shape going forward.  
  14. Like
    Wizard11 reacted to bighat in In Defense of the Twins Front Office   
    Everyone deserves a fair shake. I don't think Falvey or Levine should be fired.
    That said, they should not be immune to criticism. They made terrible decisions and those admonishing those decisions have every right to do so. 
  15. Like
    Wizard11 reacted to DMN13 in In Defense of the Twins Front Office   
    What a novel idea, to not be in the "what have you done for me lately" camp!  Fantastic article and well thought out points regarding management.  This team and overall organization still has a lot of talent and a lot of hope for the future.  Personally I'm hoping for a re-tool and not total re-build so it will be interesting to see what happens in the off-season.  Whatever it is, Falvey and Levine have earned the right to be in charge and keep moving the Twins forward!
  16. Like
    Wizard11 reacted to wsnydes in In Defense of the Twins Front Office   
    Fact of the matter is that ownership has never shown themselves to be impatient.  This FO started to rebuild the organization from the top down and there's been every indication that ownership is onboard with that and will allow them the time to do so.  One year certainly isn't going to change that.  So, this FO is going to be here to help clean up the mess unless they decide to bail on it themselves.  
    There are plenty of reasons to dislike what was done in the past year.  I imagine if you could get a candid response from the FO, they'd have a list of their own.  For a FO that has had pretty good success, I'm now interested to see how they react and deal with some adversity.  To me, that's the real test.  Things aren't always going to go as planned.  How they react is a good barometer of how fit they are for their jobs.
  17. Like
  18. Like
    Wizard11 reacted to Linus in With the 36th Overall Pick the Twins Select SS Noah Miller, Ozaukee HS (WI)   
    Should allow him to stick at shortstop. If I had a dollar for every time that gets tagged to a prospect I could buy the Twins. Players that can play legit SS in the big leagues are few and far between. 
  19. Like
    Wizard11 reacted to USAFChief in This Twins Front Office Doesn’t Have An Inspiring Trade Deadline Track Record   
    So the Twins get a pass because prospects take time, but don't take the blame when Ynoa goes the other way and is producing NOW in the big leagues? 
    Get credit for how Alcala SHOULD be doing?
  20. Haha
    Wizard11 got a reaction from Heiny in Week in Review: Nail in the Coffin   
    Maybe Shoemaker can get a locker next to Winder.  What an opportunity to share some of that veteran “savvy”. 🤣
  21. Like
    Wizard11 reacted to minman1982 in Game Recap: Twins 8, White Sox 5   
    I was there tonight and it was a fun and exciting game.  A little bit of everything.  What was up with the White Sox backup catcher?  He allowed the Twins to advance four bases on passed balls.  What you probably didn't see on the television broadcast was that the Twins runners on bases clearly smelled the blood in the water and were taking huge secondary leads at every opportunity.  Gordon's triple was a thing of beauty.  I look forward to seeing him in the lineup for years to come.  I think Thielbar was left in too long and Duffey just looked terrible.  Rogers really deserves the credit for preserving the lead and saving the game.  Robles was alright but he had some margin of error to work with. 
    What you are missing is the Sano at bat after Kirilloff's HBP and Kepler's walk.  Sano looked lost up there.  Sure, he got a hit later in the game and eventually scored a run but you need to advance the runners with two on, no one out in that situation.  Put the ball in play.  Don't worry about swinging for the fences.  Bunt the ball, if you need to.  I was not surprised he struck out on 3-2 (in fact, I commented to the person next to me that Sano wasn't going to take this pitch so why throw him something in the zone).  If I know it, every pitcher on the planet knows he wants to swing on that count and is going to throw him something low, probably out of the zone.  That is exactly what happened.  
  22. Like
    Wizard11 got a reaction from roger in Week in Review: Nail in the Coffin   
    On a more hopeful note I was able to watch Miranda’s AAA debut and a few days later Winder’s in person.  Winder was hitting 96 regularly according to the ballpark radar and seemed to have great command of all of his pitches.  Miranda’s 3 homers were all smoked.  I would love to know the exit velo on two of them. Scarcely time to stand up before they left the yard.
    Both nights were pretty cool.  These were the first Saints games I have seen in years as I live in San Diego.  
  23. Like
    Wizard11 got a reaction from roger in Week in Review: Nail in the Coffin   
    Maybe Shoemaker can get a locker next to Winder.  What an opportunity to share some of that veteran “savvy”. 🤣
  24. Like
    Wizard11 got a reaction from Nick Nelson in Week in Review: Nail in the Coffin   
    On a more hopeful note I was able to watch Miranda’s AAA debut and a few days later Winder’s in person.  Winder was hitting 96 regularly according to the ballpark radar and seemed to have great command of all of his pitches.  Miranda’s 3 homers were all smoked.  I would love to know the exit velo on two of them. Scarcely time to stand up before they left the yard.
    Both nights were pretty cool.  These were the first Saints games I have seen in years as I live in San Diego.  
  25. Like
    Wizard11 reacted to Vanimal46 in Week in Review: Nail in the Coffin   
    He’s had a checkered history in his MLB career, I’m not defending that. The latest incident appears to be a non-issue after it was addressed in the parking lot. The true issue in your argument is timing. If it was a personal beef with Giolito, he said it the first opportunity playing him after the sticky stuff ban. Then backed it up, so I’m not sure why we’re mad? Team standings is getting into unwritten rules territory… When should the players become emotionless robots? 😉 when they’re 10 games out of the race?
     
    I don’t really understand what else JD has done to turn on him as a Twins player. It sucks he was gone for a vast majority of the 60 game pandemic season. Other than the 2 week IL stint in early April, he was playing 6 out of 7 games. Cross fingers he’s only out a couple games recovering from this flare up with his legs and he’s back at it. 
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