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ToddlerHarmon

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  1. Like
    ToddlerHarmon got a reaction from Mark G in Projecting the Defensive Future of Minnesota's Top Prospects   
    I have to admit ignorance of this part of the calculation. The idea of a replacement player is below average: your standard AAAA player - someone that can be obtained from waivers or a minor-league contract for the cost of nothing more than a roster spot. But that doesn't give me a number to hold on to. I've heard that a team of replacement players (0 WAR) would be expected to win about 48 games (again, with Runs -> Wins), but I don't know how that baseline gets set, either.
    Polanco being credited with 4.8 WAR isn't at all a slight. It means a lineup of 9 2021-version-Polancos, saddled with the Saints rotation, bullpen, and bench, (think 5 ERA pitching and a bunch of .200-hitting benchwarmers) would grab 91 wins and a Wild Card berth, if not a division championship.
    The usual benchmarks for hitters are 8 WAR is an MVP season, 5 WAR is an All Star season, 2 WAR is an average everyday hitter (for their position).
    I'm sure you've heard it before, but the runs-produced stats are obviously dependent on other players' performance, and end up with clear outliers.
    A famous example: 1985 Mattingly, a fine hitter, looks like Gehrig with 253 R+RBI, when in truth it was Rickey Henderson's INSANE production in front of him that made it all possible, but he "only" had 218 R+RBI, (which also doesn't credit the fact that Henderson played a much harder defensive position). WAR, which gives Mattingly all-star kudos at 6.5, and Henderson ALL-TIME recognition at 9.9 WAR, paints a more accurate picture.
  2. Like
    ToddlerHarmon reacted to Eris in How Does the 2021 Eddie Rosario Experience End?   
    This is how the WS will end
     
    Or this
     
     
     
  3. Like
    ToddlerHarmon reacted to mikelink45 in How Does the 2021 Eddie Rosario Experience End?   
    I am delighted - Eddie Rosario has taken over the playoff and Twins Daily.  Its the off season and our former Twin is the talk of the league, Eddie on MLB.com,  and Twins Daily.  He is so hot we missed the perfect two innings by Graterol on mlb.com.  and Ryan Pressly finishing two games for Houston.  Only Ehire 0-7 looks like a Twin in the Post Season, but he is there, Jake Odorizzi has pitched like a Twin in the playoffs with a 9.00 era.  Jason Castro drove in the winning run in one game for the Astros and is 2 for 4 with a HR.  Boston is trailing in the series because they have Martin Perez doing his Twins thing with a 12 era and Danny Santana 0-2.
    The Twins fan is never at a loss in the playoffs (only the Twins are).  And the teams with the fewest ex-Twins are the ones that are behind at this stage.
    And in answer to the question - how will it end?  With Eddie holding the WS trophy.
  4. Like
    ToddlerHarmon got a reaction from wabene in Projecting the Defensive Future of Minnesota's Top Prospects   
    To answer the specific question of whether on-base percentage is weighed correctly versus slugging when coming up with WAR, the answer is: there was an attempt.
    WAR uses Runs Created (RC) as its basis for offensive production, which gives more weight to getting on base than OPS does. It also gives more weight to singles versus walks (because walks don't drive in runners from 2nd), credits steals, etc. So, WAR tries to fairly account for the different offensive skill sets.
    Now, whether it does so accurately is another issue. The WAR calculation assumes a "normal" offensive environment, so a lineup with extreme power and poor on base skills might struggle more than WAR accounts for, and so might a lineup with good on-base skills and little power.
    The other thing WAR does is assume that runs make wins. Which equates consistent production with streaky production, which is probably not accurate. A team that averages 4.5 runs a game by having a week of 1, 2, 2, 3, 8, and 10 runs probably went 2-4, but a team that scores 2, 3, 4, 5, 5, and 7 runs probably went 3-3 or 4-2.
    So, IMO, WAR undervalues on-base skills, because something that happens 35% of the time (getting on base) is more consistent than something that happens 10% of the time (extra-base-hits).
  5. Like
    ToddlerHarmon got a reaction from wabene in Projecting the Defensive Future of Minnesota's Top Prospects   
    This sounds like a great best case for the post-Donaldson future. Assuming this gives you Sano, Garver, Kirilloff, Polanco, MIranda, Lewis, Larnach, Buxton, Kepler, Jeffers, Arraez, and Martin. So, you do have room for Gordon, Palacios, or some other Adrianza-esque SS backup. But leaves Rooker or any other bench slugger out of the picture.
  6. Like
    ToddlerHarmon reacted to roger in Projecting the Defensive Future of Minnesota's Top Prospects   
    Polonco at second, Lewis at short and Miranda at third.  Keep Buxton and Kepler in center and right.  Add Larnach and Martin in left field with Martin moving around to center and right as needed.  Arraez gets a lot of at bats as DH, while also backing up Polo and Miranda at second and third.  Kirilloff is the first baseman with Sano as DH and AK's backup.  
    Would be heck of an every day lineup without the need to go out and sign any expensive free agents.  But it all starts with Lewis being able to handle short.  As for who plays short when Lewis needs a day off, could be Polo, Martin or another backup utility guy...maybe Gordon?  
  7. Like
    ToddlerHarmon reacted to Brock Beauchamp in Eddie Rosario   
    One of my all time favorite Twins plays was Rosario inducing a balk against Milwaukee. Pure, classic, 100% Eddie Rosario.
     
  8. Like
    ToddlerHarmon reacted to mikelink45 in Eddie Rosario   
    ESPN quote - on how the Braves rebuilt their OF after losing Ozuna and Ocuna.  "The Pederson acquisition was a boost, but it wasn't enough, so Anthopoulos leaped into action as the trade deadline approached. On one momentous day, he remade the outfield mix for manager Brian Snitker. In three trades completed on July 30, the Braves acquired Jorge Soler from Kansas City, Adam Duvall from Miami and Eddie Rosario from Cleveland."
  9. Like
    ToddlerHarmon reacted to Number3 in Eddie Rosario   
    I know it does no good to dwell in the past. My main point is that I was glad to see Eddie in that situation. When Acuna returns to the Braves Eddie will probably be on his way to another team; that team being not the Twins. I do hope he sticks another year with the Braves. The Braves are my favorite NL team. Guess why? It is because when I was a kid they defeated the hated Yankees in the 1957 World Series and had a 3-1 lead in the 58 Series but managed to lose. Those were some teams with Aaron, Matthews, Spahn and the rest.
  10. Like
    ToddlerHarmon reacted to gunnarthor in Eddie Rosario   
    I'll always have a soft spot in my heart for Eddie. I loved that a 4th round draft pick turned himself into a team leader and has had a nice career. He struggled a lot more with Cleveland than I thought he would have but looks good in Atlanta. I hope he gets a ring this year.
    The Twins had a lot of corner OF depth, they probably could have handled some of it better, but letting Rosario go was a pretty obvious Twins payroll move. Blame the Pohlads. The fanbase has gotten so accustomed to it, we argue when it's time to let these guys go. 
  11. Like
    ToddlerHarmon reacted to Number3 in Eddie Rosario   
    Great to see Eddie Rosario come through with a big hit for the Braves yesterday and be with a team capable of actually winning a playoff series. Letting him go along with blowing up the pitching staff has the Twins where they are. I can hear the chuckles now; fine. There was something about Rosario in left, Buxton (when available) in center and Kepler in right that just seemed to work. Now the outfield is the result of throwing darts with players names at an outfield on the wall.
  12. Like
    ToddlerHarmon reacted to Vanimal46 in Deja Vu - Buxton Extension and Mauer Extension   
    Obviously the top discussion on this website will be extending Buxton. The Twins are once again in a position where they can’t lose the most popular and notable player on the team before he hits free agency in a year. Sound familiar? 
    I’m feeling deja vu from 11 years ago when Joe Mauer was 1 year from free agency. He broke out in a way we’ve never seen before, hitting for power and winning an MVP. Buxton this year broke out in a way we’ve never seen before, hitting for power and would have been in the MVP race had he remained healthy. Before the halfway point in Mauer’s 8 year contract, he became a polarizing player for fans. Overpaid, health concerns, reverted back to a singles hitter, etc. Will we feel the same way about Buxton if we do “pay whatever it takes”?
  13. Like
    ToddlerHarmon reacted to KirbyDome89 in Deja Vu - Buxton Extension and Mauer Extension   
    Barring perennial MVP finishes, a certain percentage of the fanbase assuredly will. Twins fans have been conditioned to hate spending, and rather than question the tight pockets of ownership or even how FO(s) allocate available funds, it's easier to blame Player X for whatever holes the team has. There's certainly risk with signing Buxton long term, and a logical argument to be made for not going that route, but IMO the potential reward, and most importantly for me, not having to watch miserable baseball (hopefully) for another 3-4 years is worth that risk. 
  14. Like
    ToddlerHarmon reacted to nicksaviking in MLB teams to provide housing for minor leaguers in 2022   
    Probably. 
    But I long ago lost faith in billionaire owners doing right by other people out of the goodness of their hearts. So them doing right by other people for completely self-serving purposes was probably always going to be the best we get.
  15. Like
    ToddlerHarmon reacted to mikelink45 in Scouting Twins Prospects: Gilberto Celestino   
    Thanks for the report.  I like him.  Based on what he did after leaving the team for AAA I think he learned his lessons well and will be ready to come back for much better results in the future.  I take him over Jake Cave.
  16. Like
    ToddlerHarmon reacted to Old Twins Cap in Giants, Red Sox Proving You Don’t Need These 3 Things   
    Well, can we focus on what each team DID have?
    1.  Good starting pitching and a deep staff generally.
    2.  A deep offensive attack that stretches the other teams' pitching staff.
    3.  Lots of home runs from lots of different players.
    4.  And, the one attribute that is most often overlooked, forgotten and ignored because there is no way to control it: multiple veteran guys who have "career years", for whatever reason, during the same season, whether pitchers or hitters. 
     
     
  17. Like
    ToddlerHarmon reacted to Brock Beauchamp in Buyer Beware: Flaws with the Top-5 Free Agent Shortstops   
    I'm open to the idea the Twins should spend big on a shortstop instead of multiple pitchers but the one that scares me away is Semien. I was a big proponent of signing him last offseason but he's pushing well past 30 years old at this point, played second almost exclusively last season, and his price will likely be obnoxiously high after his 2021 season, which I do not expect him to repeat.
  18. Like
    ToddlerHarmon reacted to USAFChief in Buyer Beware: Flaws with the Top-5 Free Agent Shortstops   
    The Twins aren't going to sign any of these players, but...
    The "now isn't the time" argument has always been wrong. There is never the "wrong time" to get better players, yet people make that argument all the time.
    "Wait till we're one player away to sign that player" is, to put it bluntly, a stupid idea.
    You wouldnt be one player short had you signed that player when you could.  Not to mention that "one player" might not be there now. 
    Sign good players when you can. 
    Of the three, I'd take Correa, but the Twins won't sign any of these five.
  19. Like
    ToddlerHarmon reacted to LewFordLives in Buyer Beware: Flaws with the Top-5 Free Agent Shortstops   
    Nice article.
    Other than locking up Buxton, there is no reason the Twins should be spending big $$$ this offseason. With the loss of Berrios and Maeda, 2022 will be a tryout camp for the starting rotation. It makes more sense for the Twins to be active in free agency during the 2022-2023 offseason.
    I especially don't think they should be locking up a SS long-term when they have some legit possible in-house candidates.
  20. Like
    ToddlerHarmon reacted to Vanimal46 in 4 Plausible Developments That Would Dramatically Alter the Twins' Fortunes   
    I’m reposting this excellent analysis from @Otto von Ballpark because we’re going to read a narrative about Jax’s success the first time through the order that is not true. 

    “Jax, 1st 5 MLB starts, first time through the order:
    5 GS, 4 H, 0 XBH, 0 R, 3 BB, 0 HBP, 11 K
    Jax, next 9 MLB starts, first time through the order:
    9 GS, 12 H, 8 XBH (6 HR), 12 R, 6 BB, 2 HBP, 14 K
    His 4 relief appearances don't help either, first time through the order:
    4 G, 9 H, 3 XBH (2 HR), 5 R, 4 BB, 7 K
    All told, he had a 5.39 FIP/xFIP the first time through the order this season, 5.10/5.36 after moving into the rotation.
    Still a fairly small sample, and obviously it can't account for the potential of his stuff playing up in the pen, but it doesn't appear that he has shown any particular first time through the order ability thus far.”
    Original post here
  21. Like
    ToddlerHarmon reacted to Karbo in 4 Plausible Developments That Would Dramatically Alter the Twins' Fortunes   
    I'll add #5. Buxton and the Twins agree on a new contract.
  22. Like
    ToddlerHarmon reacted to TopGunn#22 in 4 Plausible Developments That Would Dramatically Alter the Twins' Fortunes   
    It would be great if all or most of those things pan out.  I'll add two more:
    Austin Martin makes the team out of spring training with his defensive versatility and well rounded offensive game giving the Twins an on base machine at the top of their order to replace the traded Luis Arraez who brings back a solid starting pitcher with multiple years of team control.  Martin eventually settles in at Left Field where his defense invokes memories of the Royals Alex Gordon.
    Jordan Balazovic discovers how great it is to be healthy all the time and wows in April and May, first in AA and then at AAA for St. Paul.  After his first June start for the Saints in which he throws 7 shut out 2-hit innings striking out 12 he is moved to the Big Team where he impresses with a performance that earns him Rookie of the Year votes while flashing #1 starter stuff.   With a couple of solid veterans fronting the Twins rotation and Balazovic, Ryan and Ober holding down the #3, #4, and #5 spots the Twins reclaim the division from a talented White Sox outfit who fire Tony Larussa after another 1st round playoff exit.  The Twins meanwhile, exorcise all their Playoff winless demons and cruise thru the post season without losing a game in route to winning the the World Series over the mighty L.A. Dodgers in a 4-game sweep. 
    "How Sweet it IS !!!" 
  23. Like
    ToddlerHarmon reacted to Whitey333 in 4 Plausible Developments That Would Dramatically Alter the Twins' Fortunes   
    Is this what they call fantasy baseball?
  24. Like
    ToddlerHarmon reacted to flags in Houston, Does the Central Have a Problem?   
    no team in the division lost 90 games because when 4 of the 5 teams are all on the same level of suck, they play pretty competitive baseball against each other.
  25. Like
    ToddlerHarmon reacted to ashbury in Houston, Does the Central Have a Problem?   
    Or to make manifest just how far from genuine competitiveness they really are.
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