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ToddlerHarmon

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  1. Like
    ToddlerHarmon got a reaction from Minny505 in No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky   
    I love this. However, the conclusion to draw, IMO, is not "the FO should decide to sign guys like this", because the market reality is they can't make that decision. They have to hope the Yankees, Dodgers, et al, allow such a signing.
    The real conclusion to draw is the MLB has to make it possible for the Twins and similar teams to pursue such FAs. Whether through CBA, revenue sharing, national media contracts, or something. It is simply getting ridiculous.
  2. Like
    ToddlerHarmon reacted to Brock Beauchamp in Do you have the right stuff to be the top contributor in our community?   
    Given that I control the god account on the site, I’m considering logging in under 100 different accounts just to like your post, ash. 
  3. Like
    ToddlerHarmon reacted to ashbury in Do you have the right stuff to be the top contributor in our community?   
    We all need to click Like on this blog post of Brock's so that he can keep the prize he so clearly esteems.
  4. Like
    ToddlerHarmon got a reaction from chpettit19 in No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky   
    I love this. However, the conclusion to draw, IMO, is not "the FO should decide to sign guys like this", because the market reality is they can't make that decision. They have to hope the Yankees, Dodgers, et al, allow such a signing.
    The real conclusion to draw is the MLB has to make it possible for the Twins and similar teams to pursue such FAs. Whether through CBA, revenue sharing, national media contracts, or something. It is simply getting ridiculous.
  5. Like
    ToddlerHarmon got a reaction from wabene in No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky   
    I love this. However, the conclusion to draw, IMO, is not "the FO should decide to sign guys like this", because the market reality is they can't make that decision. They have to hope the Yankees, Dodgers, et al, allow such a signing.
    The real conclusion to draw is the MLB has to make it possible for the Twins and similar teams to pursue such FAs. Whether through CBA, revenue sharing, national media contracts, or something. It is simply getting ridiculous.
  6. Like
    ToddlerHarmon got a reaction from heresthething in No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky   
    I love this. However, the conclusion to draw, IMO, is not "the FO should decide to sign guys like this", because the market reality is they can't make that decision. They have to hope the Yankees, Dodgers, et al, allow such a signing.
    The real conclusion to draw is the MLB has to make it possible for the Twins and similar teams to pursue such FAs. Whether through CBA, revenue sharing, national media contracts, or something. It is simply getting ridiculous.
  7. Like
    ToddlerHarmon got a reaction from Dman in No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky   
    I love this. However, the conclusion to draw, IMO, is not "the FO should decide to sign guys like this", because the market reality is they can't make that decision. They have to hope the Yankees, Dodgers, et al, allow such a signing.
    The real conclusion to draw is the MLB has to make it possible for the Twins and similar teams to pursue such FAs. Whether through CBA, revenue sharing, national media contracts, or something. It is simply getting ridiculous.
  8. Like
    ToddlerHarmon reacted to Brock Beauchamp in No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky   
    I appreciate the ability to be awarded an F- in this grading.
    ”You were so bad, we created a new bottom rung for you to occupy.”
  9. Like
    ToddlerHarmon reacted to bean5302 in No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky   
    I was pretty sure of the outcome before I wrote the article because I'd done some research before Darvish slipped through our hands years ago, but I was surprised just how bad some of the "good" signings we made really were. Also, the article is more for TD folks than me: I was writing while procrastinating on a engine project in the garage, haha. The big issue is being pretty sure you're right without having the research to back it up for other folks to review.
  10. Like
    ToddlerHarmon reacted to Minny505 in No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky   
    Desclifani is the product of Giants devil magic. He was the kind of signing we would have all been frustrated with and may not be doing what he's doing with any other team.

    Ray needed a pillow contract after the disaster of 2020 and he was still on the underside of 30. This is exactly the kind of signing the Twins should be making on one year deals. High ceiling potential here.

    Rodon is an anomaly. This kind of career turnaround in one offseason is a once-a-decade event in MLB. 

    Walker was a fawned over as a FA this past offseason by the Twins Daily faithful and was expected to easily get more than $30mil by national writers. That he was signed so late in the offseason for only $20mil was considered a steal by the Mets before the ink even dried. I remember the national podcast voices exclaiming a collective "WTF!?" over this signing. There has to be more to the story that we don't know because this signing for this amount doesn't make sense. It would be like the Twins getting Jon Gray this upcoming offseason for 2/20. 

    You also mentioned Kluber and Paxton. Even with the injuries, either one would have been better spent money than Happ+Shoe. Signing a make-good, high injury risk pitcher with a high ceiling is exactly the kind of signing the Twins should be looking to make, especially this upcoming offseason. 

    The problem with Happ, Shoemaker, and their ilk is the upside that can be gained from their signing. Twins need to target pitchers with high upside in FA, not their mean production. At best, the Happ signing is a 4.20 ERA pitcher. At best Kluber is a 3.10 ERA pitcher. The cost is nearly the same for either. Sure, the floor for Kluber is lower, but that just means a AAA guy ready to prove themselves takes his place. That beats 20 starts of 6.60 ERA pitching from Happ, as nearly every pitcher to pitch in Happ's spot since he was traded has performed better.

    This was also the beauty of the Pineda signing. His ceiling is a 3.50 ERA pitcher. Sure, he's missed a lot of time, but he's generally been outstanding when on the bump. We need more of that high risk/high reward in our FA pitching contracts.
  11. Like
    ToddlerHarmon reacted to Minny505 in No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky   
    The Twins would have to pay more than 25m/yr to lock up Darvish. He doesn't have a price tag, it's a bidding system. By default the price would have been at minimum 26 per. Then the Cubs counter. Twins have to pay more to stay in the game and a bidding war ensues. In 2018, contract offers being equal, Darvish signs with the Cubs 100% of the time.
    The Twins have to out-do any bidding on any pitcher right now because half the teams in the league are better poised to win in the short term than the Twins. 

    Yet, as you point out, even paying 4, 5, or 6mil more per year still makes it worth it vs bargain bin shopping. 

    BTW, I want to compliment you again @bean5302. This is the kind of numbers breakdown that drives me to read sites like Twins Daily. I am really looking forward to reading more of your work in the future. Hopefully I can add an email notification for just posts by you...and if not, hopefully a moderator is reading this and can work with the development team to implement a "follow of your favorite writers" notification feature.
  12. Like
    ToddlerHarmon reacted to Mark G in No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky   
    I agree with everything you laid out in the above article, and what you just posted here.  And I could have saved you the hours on the internet, too.  Almost anyone in my generation of baseball junkies could have told you exactly this without a single stat or WAR, just our eyes and paying attention to the box scores every day.  
    Don't take that as some kind of insult, I say it somewhat tongue in cheek knowing that folks today rely on the analytics.  I only point out that sometimes it is overrated (highly overrated?) compared to just old time seeing for yourself.  But you are spot on, however you came to the conclusions you did.    
  13. Like
    ToddlerHarmon reacted to bean5302 in No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky   
    I was looking at starters who were likely to command $100MM+. So this year, Scherzer and Greinke probably wouldn't make the list. 2015 Greinke was seen as an overpay and the Diamondbacks signing him kind of stunned everybody, but I don't recall anybody forecasting doom and gloom. Adding $4MM/year to Darvish would be way more than needed for anybody to sign him, but even if that were to happen, Darvish would still be the pitcher he is right now (ace level) and the cost per win would go from $9.9 per WAR (B-Grade) to $12.0MM per WAR (C-Grade). Keep in mind, that also includes Darvish's wasted 2018 due to misdiagnosed injury. Ultimately, Darvish is probably the most stellar example of how ace pitchers are still a good value because this already paints him in a bad light. If you evaulate Darvish based on median WAR, he cost $3.4MM / WAR which is ludicrously great. Adding $4MM per year to his salary and dividing by his median WAR is still only $4.1MM / WAR. He'd still be ludicrously great.
    I'm not sure why the Twins would have to be at the luxury tax threshold? They already spent $40MM in 2018 on free agent/acquisition arms. Darvish cost $25MM. Even if the Twins decided to overpay $4MM per year for no good reason, in 2018 Darvish still would have cost $11MM less than what the Twins were already spending. Also consider the Twins were expecting to spend $41MM on FA/acquisition arms in 2020. Darvish and Wheeler combined only cost $44MM. Now, which would you rather have in 2020? I'd take column 1 all day, every day... even if I don't like losing Maeda. They cost essentially the same money.
    Darvish vs. Odorizzi Wheeler vs. Maeda Berrios vs. Berrios Jax vs. Pineda Dobnak vs. Dobnak Ober vs. Hill/Bailey
  14. Like
    ToddlerHarmon reacted to Minny505 in No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky   
    I love this study @bean5302. I would like to know what your qualifications are for the Top 8 Frontline starters. Was it total dollars? Dollars per year? Was this cherry picked at all? I hope you see this and can respond.

    There is a point where the investment does become a bad investment and the Twins, due to total financial resources actually available before taking a loss on team ownership, will always get outbid by deeper pockets.
    For example, every one of those SPs, sans Greinke, was signed by a team up against the soft cap. This means if the Twins need to throw an extra $4mil a year at Darvish to sign him, that becomes a bad contract, looking more like a Mike Pelfrey level signing than what the Cubs got. 

    Can the Twins be a better team using that kind of approach? I don't think they can. Kind of depressing. 

    I'd like to see a recreation of the same study, but with solid second tier starters. I'm thinking somewhere between $60mil and $100mil, such as a Hyun Jin Ryu signing. What is the value of those contracts and can the Twins compete there? 

    Again, great insight and breakdown. Looking forward to more!
  15. Like
    ToddlerHarmon reacted to TopGunn#22 in No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky   
    You make a great point.  The Twins have always spent for "QUANTITY" not "QUALITY."  It's like Slick Rick of the Vikings always trading back to accumulate more and more 6th and 7th rounders instead of just drafting Tyler Johnson (#3 WR spot SOLVED) when he was sitting there.
    I   GUARANTEE  the Twins, if they spend the money on bringing Max Scherzer here,  he will be worth every penny !!  Now I get that Max would be crazy not to just stick with the Dodgers who will pay him more and give him a better chance for a World Series ring, but that's not my point.  The point is, when you spend on QUALITY you lessen the risk.  The wins and innings that kind of SP/RP give you add up to tremendous value for what you spent.  Honestly, I don't know why this FO doesn't understand that.  I thought they were brought here to replace the antiquated thinking of the Terry Ryan regime.  Maybe this is a Pohlad "thing."  It's hard to understand how the Twins have never figured this out.
  16. Like
    ToddlerHarmon reacted to RedBull34 in Average OPS By Position vs. Twins Starters   
    I think that this would make sense as I'd say since then there has been a deflation on the importance of BA and an inflation on the importance on OBP.  However according to OPS a 1B is MUCH more valuable then a BB.  While I agree that a 1B is more valuable then a BB it's not as much as OPS would think.
     
    E.G. A player goes 1-4 with a 1B.  They have a .250/.250/.250 line.  That is a OPS of .500.
    A player goes 0-3 with a BB.  They have a .000/.333/.000 line.  That is an OPS of .333.
    I don't seem to believe that a BB is worth only 2/3's of a 1B.  I'd think a BB is worth more then that percentage.
    My point is that like WAR, OPS is nice for a quick reference, but it's not the end all stat.  It underweights OBP vs. both BA and SLG.
  17. Like
    ToddlerHarmon reacted to Rick Blaine in NIck Gordon Sent to AAA - Is He a Long Term Player?   
    I think Gordon's career will resemble Danny Santana's. A player in search of a position.  We still have Royce Lewis in the mix. 
  18. Like
    ToddlerHarmon reacted to LA VIkes Fan in NIck Gordon Sent to AAA - Is He a Long Term Player?   
    I agree that the key for Gordon is who plays SS. Polanco has earned an every day spot at either 2B or SS. Frankly, he's our best payer this year. Arraez needs to play regularly, although the where is a little less important. I think the choice is pretty clear - offense or defense? If we keep Simmons or sign a FA SS we will have better infield defense because Polanco is a decent 2B defensively and Arraez isn't really great defensively anywhere so he either becomes the utility guy at 2b, 3B, 1B and LF or starts in the OF. I don't think he can start in the OF because of his knee issues. He'll still get 400-500 ABS a year. Under that scenario, probably no room for Gordon long term. Better defense, lesser offense. 
    If we go the other way and play Polanco at SS, there is room for Gordon IF he can play SS. Arraez plays second, and Gordon gets 300 ABs filling in at 2B and at SS. Or, if Donaldson is traded or becomes a nearly full time DH, Arraez plays 3B a lot, Gordon either backs up Polanco at 2B and a new SS or plays 2B with Polanco at SS. This is the least likely scenario to me because then there's no room for Cruz coming back, or for Sano to play regularly. If Polanco moves to SS and Donaldson plays 3B 100 games a year (the rest at DH), better offense, lesser defense.    
    My guess is that Polanco goes back to SS because Simmons won't be re-signed and we won't pay the prices to get a good FA SS. Under that scenario, there's a place for Gordon but ONLY if he can competently play SS 20-30 games a year.  I read that Rocco said they've told the Saints that they want Gordon playing a lot at SS and 3B so I think this is the scenario in play. 
  19. Like
    ToddlerHarmon reacted to Dman in NIck Gordon Sent to AAA - Is He a Long Term Player?   
    If Gordon isn't a viable sub at short then not sure I give him a 40 man spot. We have Arraez and Polanco at 2nd or 3rd if needed and now have MIranda and Martin who can play there as well and they both project to be better players than Gordon.  Until Martin and Miranda's emergence I would have said he has a chance but Martin seems like a better version of Gordon and Miranda's power stroke makes him valuable as well.  Gordon has no power and doesn't walk much but he has good bat to ball skills a solid arm and decent speed.  He can play center in a pinch but not sure how he grades out there defensively.
    To the point of this article though yes if left unprotected I have to believe he is the perfect player for a rebuilding team to pick up.  You hope he hits for average and that you have a solid utility player for cheap rates the next 6 years.  Best case scenario he turns into a solid 2nd baseman for a team in need of a player at that position.  He could be a valuable pick up.
    He would be good in that position for us as well but with most of our best bats already at that position he looks like the odd man out to me.
  20. Like
    ToddlerHarmon reacted to LA VIkes Fan in NIck Gordon Sent to AAA - Is He a Long Term Player?   
    I think you're probably right, although I wonder if he isn't in a competition with Astudillo, Cave, Refsnyder, Garlick, etc. for the 25th or 26 spot on the roster next year. I thought it was interesting that he was chosen to go down so Refsnyder could come up rather than Astudillo who I think still has options. I believe Cave would have to have been DFA' d so I kind of understand why he would be kept on the major-league roster. Having said that, I don't see that Cave is likely to be on the team next year assuming all of the other OFs are healthy at the beginning of the year. It seems like Cave would be behind Buxton, Kepler, Larnach,  and Rooker at least, and that's not counting a guy like Refsnyder or Garlick, both of whom outperformed Cave before they got hurt. It sure seems like Cave's 40 man spot at least is in jeopardy over the off-season given the number of pitching prospects we will probably want to protect. 
  21. Like
    ToddlerHarmon reacted to old nurse in Average OPS By Position vs. Twins Starters   
    Yet for all of the consternation about Arraez playing someplace, it is all how you want to look at it. Take a look at those players  with 100 total AB for this year, 3b  Arraez sits as the  17th best. OPS this year of the 61 players . 19th for the 71 players for LF, and 21 for the 68 at 2B. Below average number, above the median for players playing. 128 place out of the 399 players with 100 AB
    Arraez is the utility player. Compare him to the other who do what he does
  22. Like
    ToddlerHarmon got a reaction from Strombomb in Average OPS By Position vs. Twins Starters   
    Thanks for this. This look does also offer some hope, if we move Polanco back to SS. One could see a lineup with:
    Sano -
    Garver +
    Kiriloff ?
    Arraez +
    Donaldson +
    Polanco +
    Larnach ?
    Buxton +
    Kepler -
    That's 5 plus bats, 2 unknown youths, and cross your fingers on Sano and Kepler finding 2019 again. So it could be competitive, or even good, without having to add free agents
     
  23. Like
    ToddlerHarmon got a reaction from wabene in Average OPS By Position vs. Twins Starters   
    If we attached these OPS+ to specific position averages, my guess is Sano falls to below average, but Jeffers and Astudillo rise to above average? It certainly seems like today's OPS averages are lower than 2006, which meets the eye test
  24. Like
    ToddlerHarmon got a reaction from wabene in Average OPS By Position vs. Twins Starters   
    Thanks for this. This look does also offer some hope, if we move Polanco back to SS. One could see a lineup with:
    Sano -
    Garver +
    Kiriloff ?
    Arraez +
    Donaldson +
    Polanco +
    Larnach ?
    Buxton +
    Kepler -
    That's 5 plus bats, 2 unknown youths, and cross your fingers on Sano and Kepler finding 2019 again. So it could be competitive, or even good, without having to add free agents
     
  25. Like
    ToddlerHarmon got a reaction from mikelink45 in Average OPS By Position vs. Twins Starters   
    If we attached these OPS+ to specific position averages, my guess is Sano falls to below average, but Jeffers and Astudillo rise to above average? It certainly seems like today's OPS averages are lower than 2006, which meets the eye test
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