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Tom Froemming

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  1. Like
    Tom Froemming got a reaction from Mike Sixel in Velocity Is (Still) a Problem for the Minnesota Twins   
    Not sure how this suggests velocity *only* makes pitchers good or great. I don't think it should be controversial to say you don't want to rank near the absolute bottom in velo, or really any kind of pitching metric, right? Also, simply "the Twins need better pitchers" would have made for a pretty short and boring article, don'tchathink? 
  2. Like
    Tom Froemming got a reaction from Mike Sixel in Velocity Is (Still) a Problem for the Minnesota Twins   
    I mentioned that toward the end of the article, but here are the numbers 2019-21 sorted by 95+ mph %. Of course there are some exceptions, but generally it's a lot of green at the top and a lot of red at the bottom.

    Team 95+% vFA (pi) ERA FIP xFIP WAR CHW 24.9 94.8 4.22 4.13 4.17 41.2 NYM 22.7 94.9 4.24 4.32 4.33 46.7 CIN 19.3 94.3 4.08 4.22 4.15 46.1 NYY 19 93.9 3.18 3.66 3.84 61.1 COL 18.9 94.3 5.27 4.90 4.66 22.7 BOS 18.4 93.5 3.99 4.05 4.04 45.2 TBR 18.3 94.1 3.66 3.76 3.93 50.3 SDP 18 94.4 4.24 4.23 4.11 45.9 LAD 18 93.4 4.43 4.54 4.68 23.1 HOU 15.2 94.1 4.29 4.15 4.15 36 ATL 15 94.2 4.66 4.28 4.30 35.5 PHI 14.9 93.1 3.96 4.19 4.51 41.6 STL 14 93.7 4.11 4.27 4.32 32.5 KCR 14 93.3 4.91 4.79 4.72 21.9 TEX 13.8 93.8 3.81 4.09 4.03 47.4 MIL 13 93.7 4.57 4.51 4.24 32.5 CLE 12.7 93.6 3.91 4.33 4.51 30.6 PIT 12.3 93.6 4.83 4.62 4.71 24.4 WSN 12.2 93.3 4.40 4.54 4.51 27.7 MIA 11.6 93.4 4.63 4.58 4.48 31 TOR 10.5 93.6 4.96 4.81 4.74 21.3 DET 10.4 93.5 5.07 4.77 4.70 16.3 SFG 9.6 92.7 5.57 5.24 5.00 21.3 OAK 9.5 93.5 3.94 4.13 4.19 42.3 LAA 9.4 92.7 4.71 4.67 4.73 23.1 CHC 9.1 93.2 3.94 4.11 4.32 33.9 SEA 9 92.7 4.41 4.50 4.31 28.7 BAL 8.2 93.1 4.93 4.63 4.55 28.1 MIN 7.1 92.5 4.36 4.25 4.33 41.6 ARI 6.3 92.5 4.71 4.69 4.67 18.7
  3. Like
    Tom Froemming got a reaction from flpmagikat in Velocity Is (Still) a Problem for the Minnesota Twins   
    Not sure how this suggests velocity *only* makes pitchers good or great. I don't think it should be controversial to say you don't want to rank near the absolute bottom in velo, or really any kind of pitching metric, right? Also, simply "the Twins need better pitchers" would have made for a pretty short and boring article, don'tchathink? 
  4. Like
    Tom Froemming got a reaction from USAFChief in Velocity Is (Still) a Problem for the Minnesota Twins   
    Not sure how this suggests velocity *only* makes pitchers good or great. I don't think it should be controversial to say you don't want to rank near the absolute bottom in velo, or really any kind of pitching metric, right? Also, simply "the Twins need better pitchers" would have made for a pretty short and boring article, don'tchathink? 
  5. Like
    Tom Froemming reacted to chpettit19 in Velocity Is (Still) a Problem for the Minnesota Twins   
    Oh I'm sure it'd be real hard to get to one that is at .7, but the .3s that velo has to ERA, FIP, xFIP leaves a lot to be desired. Velo certainly helps, but I'm not ready to say it's a problem that the Twins don't hunt it. Lots of ways to get guys out, and pure velo doesn't do it. Control and mixing pitches are far more important than just throwing hard.
  6. Like
    Tom Froemming got a reaction from USAFChief in Velocity Is (Still) a Problem for the Minnesota Twins   
    That's true, but the Twins also had one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball last year. Doesn't seem like a great model to continue to strive for. 
  7. Like
    Tom Froemming reacted to Parker Hageman in Velocity Is (Still) a Problem for the Minnesota Twins   
    TruMedia.
    Baseball Savant counts cutters as fastballs. TruMedia doesn't. Given the increased movement of cutters lately, I think that's more accurate to exclude them from the fastball pool. 
  8. Like
    Tom Froemming got a reaction from tarheeltwinsfan in Velocity Is (Still) a Problem for the Minnesota Twins   
    That's true, but the Twins also had one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball last year. Doesn't seem like a great model to continue to strive for. 
  9. Like
    Tom Froemming reacted to RedneckRay in Velocity Is (Still) a Problem for the Minnesota Twins   
    I’ve always been a big believer in velocity, admittedly too much even. That’s why I was sad to see us deal Robles at the deadline for nothing, get rid of Graterol(that ended up a good trade) and now lose Colina for nothing. I really do think signing high velo guys is the only way our bullpen is competent next year. Not saying we need everyone to throw 100+, but one other guy that can match Alcalas velocity would be great. Also, before Rogers injury he was consistently 96-97 with the sinker, and I remember very distinctly on opening day he hit 98. If that development continues for next year, I think it will turn out very good.
  10. Like
    Tom Froemming reacted to Rosterman in Velocity Is (Still) a Problem for the Minnesota Twins   
    You need variety. Look those cereal snackpacks. Sadly, you also have one or two that nobody really wants to see on the mound.
     
  11. Like
    Tom Froemming reacted to Minny505 in Velocity Is (Still) a Problem for the Minnesota Twins   
    It's not that velo is the end-all, but it allows for a much larger margin of error when pitching. This is why it is important. 
  12. Like
    Tom Froemming reacted to Harrison Greeley III in Velocity Is (Still) a Problem for the Minnesota Twins   
    It has seemed apparent to me for the last 3 years that the front office sees a market inefficiency in prioritizing deliveries, particularly deliveries with deception. They want pitchers like Cody Stashak, Kenta Maeda, etc. Joe Ryan's unremarkable velocity that's extremely difficult for hitters to pick up is, what I would assume, this front office's Holy Grail.

    From there, after acquisition they can work on unlocking a couple extra MPH with Wes Johnson on his lower half biomechanical tutoring. It adds roster flexibility by cheaper to do it this way. Most other teams are understandably obsessed with velocity, so they're more willing to part with someone like Maeda or Ryan. It's a clever angle which worked well in 2019 and 2020.

    Intuitively, focusing less on velocity would theoretically lessen injury risks, but 2021 certainly does NOT back that idea up. 
  13. Like
    Tom Froemming reacted to tarheeltwinsfan in Velocity Is (Still) a Problem for the Minnesota Twins   
    This was an interesting article. Thank you for writing this article, Tom. I believe you are on to something here. The Twins have traded away, given away, lost a lot of flame throwers over the past 5 years. The big question is "Why ?".  A flame throwing swing and miss gives the team and fans more energy than a swing and miss change-up, which fools the batter. I really think many of the the Twins pitchers lack energy on the mound. Gardy used to say, "It's a long season."  That is true, however I say, "It may be a long season, but you can only live one second  at a time. Do all you can to win now, whether it is a cold April day, a drizzly June night, a sweltering day game in Tampa, or the last games in September.. Go all out...every time...every bunt...every batter's ground out to the shortstop. Run to first base, damnit, run. Play with energy. Pump each other up.  Get excited and share the energy. Make every game a "playoff game" in actions and energy. 
  14. Like
    Tom Froemming got a reaction from Seth Stohs in Velocity Is (Still) a Problem for the Minnesota Twins   
    I would say the most-used pitch type matters, yes.
    Was that at Brooks? Baseball Savant had the Rays at  55.3% fastballs and the Twins at 53.1%.
  15. Like
    Tom Froemming got a reaction from USAFChief in Velocity Is (Still) a Problem for the Minnesota Twins   
    Derek Falvey and Thad Levine took over a Minnesota Twins team that averaged 92.5 mph on four-seam fastballs. In their fifth year at the helm of the organization, the pitching staff averaged … 92.2 mph on four-seam fastballs. What gives? 
    Before we dig into some of the numbers, here’s a quick video on a handful of harder-throwing starting pitchers who could be value targets for the Twins this offseason:
    Here is a team-by-team breakdown sorted by average four-seam fastball velocity. It’s color coded, so green is good and red is bad. The information below was gathered from FanGraphs.
    Team vFA ERA FIP xFIP WAR CHW 95.5 3.73 3.74 3.85 27.1 NYY 94.9 3.76 3.90 4.00 22.3 BOS 94.8 4.27 3.95 4.07 19.2 NYM 94.5 3.90 4.04 3.99 16.4 COL 94.5 4.83 4.47 4.38 13.4 SDP 94.4 4.10 4.18 4.08 12.8 CIN 94.3 4.41 4.34 4.18 16.2 ATL 94.3 3.89 4.08 4.09 15.9 LAD 94.1 3.03 3.54 3.75 26.9 TBR 94.1 3.67 3.79 3.97 18.7 PHI 94.1 4.39 4.15 4.02 17.9 DET 94.1 4.32 4.60 4.65 10.2 KCR 94.0 4.65 4.39 4.52 12.5 CLE 93.9 4.34 4.43 4.27 10.2 MIA 93.8 3.96 4.01 4.21 15.1 SFG 93.7 3.25 3.55 3.87 21.9 TEX 93.6 4.80 4.76 4.57 4.5 TOR 93.5 3.91 4.18 4.06 14.6 STL 93.4 4.00 4.30 4.66 12.1 PIT 93.4 5.08 4.74 4.70 5.0 WSN 93.3 4.82 4.87 4.53 6.5 MIL 93.2 3.50 3.72 3.75 23.5 HOU 93.2 3.78 4.12 4.12 16.9 OAK 93.2 4.02 4.10 4.35 15.1 SEA 93.2 4.30 4.26 4.47 14.3 CHC 93.0 4.88 4.88 4.43 4.9 LAA 92.9 4.68 4.25 4.26 15.4 BAL 92.9 5.85 5.15 4.91 7.9 MIN 92.2 4.83 4.66 4.44 8.2 ARI 92.2 5.15 4.88 4.85 4.0  
    As you can see, there’s a fairly strong correlation between teams that throw harder and success. Not only are the Twins near the bottom, there’s also a significant gap between them and the Orioles. That 0.7 mph gap is the same as what separates the fourth-place team from the 15th.
    Let’s switch things up a bit and look at pitches in excess of 95.0 mph instead of average fastball velocity. The information below was gathered from Baseball Savant. The color-coded column is percent of pitches thrown at least 95.0 mph.
    CWS 27.9 6626 23713 NYY 21.5 5112 23761 BOS 20.8 5033 24193 MIL 20.7 4966 23967 NYM 21.4 4799 22405 PHI 20.0 4745 23739 MIA 20.5 4704 22990 COL 20.0 4603 22960 DET 18.1 4339 23914 CIN 17.6 4316 24548 ATL 18.5 4294 23228 LAD 18.3 4187 22927 TB 17.4 4027 23169 KC 16.5 4017 24307 TOR 16.6 3911 23549 SD 14.0 3386 24196 OAK 14.4 3325 23102 STL 14.1 3299 23419 WSH 13.2 3125 23732 SEA 13.0 3111 23859 CLE 13.0 3057 23459 BAL 10.6 2598 24474 SF 10.4 2386 22859 HOU 9.9 2368 23917 CHC 9.4 2238 23877 PIT 9.3 2225 24045 TEX 8.3 1967 23586 LAA 7.6 1847 24415 MIN 6.4 1516 23714 ARI 5.0 1188 23827 Being 29th is bad enough, but even if the Twins were to double the number of pitches that were 95+ mph they’d still only rank 22nd. The Kansas City Royals threw 2,501 more pitches 95+ mph than the Twins — or 15 more per game played — and they barely rank in the top half of the league themselves.
    Do the Twins have an aversion to high-velocity pitchers? That seems like a crazy question to ask, but let’s take a look at some former Twins prospects who were shipped out in trades.
    2021 % of Pitches 95.0+ mph
    66.0 Brusdar Graterol
    44.2 Luis Gil
    38.4 Huascar Ynoa
    15.1 MLB Average
    6.4 Minnesota Twins
    Graterol (Kenta Maeda trade), Gil (Jake Cave trade) and Ynoa (Jaime Garcia trade) all have well above average velo, all were traded away. They also just lost Edwar Colina and his triple-digit heat to waivers. Are the Twins actively avoiding high-octane pitchers? At the very least it sure doesn't feel like they’re making them a priority.
    This seems like a great time to revisit the Twins carpool commercial from 2007 featuring Johan Santana and Joe Nathan.
    That’s how you win Cy Youngs, baby! While this ia a velocity-obsessed article, pitching in the big leagues is obviously about more than just throwing hard. It sure does seem to help, though.
    While the lack of velo is nothing new for the Twins, to be fair, it didn’t prevent them from having successful pitching staffs the previous couple years. Here’s a look at some the numbers throughout the Falvey-era:
    Minnesota Twins Four-Seam Fastball Velo
    2021: 29th, 92.2 mph (26th in ERA)
    2020: 30th, 92.0 mph (4th in ERA)
    2019: 24th, 93.0 mph (9th in ERA)
    2018: 21st, 92.7 mph (22nd in ERA)
    2017: 30th, 92.4 mph (19th in ERA)
    Still, any pitcher who tells you he wouldn’t like to throw harder is either a liar or in denial.

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  16. Like
    Tom Froemming got a reaction from ashbury in VIDEO: Mitch Garver Trade Talk & More Minnesota Twins Offseason News   
    Talking about Mitch Garver as a trade candidate, losing Edwar Colina to the Texas Rangers for nothing, coaching staff changes, Arizona Fall League rosters and more Minnesota Twins offseason news items.

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  17. Like
    Tom Froemming got a reaction from Squirrel in VIDEO: Miguel Sanó Homers, Scolds Pitcher; Simeon Woods-Richardson Struggles   
    Miguel Sanó hit his 26th home run of the year for the Minnesota Twins and later gave Cleveland pitcher Cal Quantrill a talking to. Also discussed in tonight's recap are Josh Donaldson, Gilberto Celestino, Simeon Woods-Richardson, Louie Varland, Alex Isola, Jeferson Morales and Edouard Julien.


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  18. Like
    Tom Froemming got a reaction from Squirrel in VIDEO: Joe Ryan Perfect Through 6 Innings; Saints Slug Pair Of Grand Slams   
    Joe Ryan flirted with perfection for the Minnesota Twins Wednesday night, carrying a perfect game into the seventh inning of what was just his second major league start. Highlights from that outing plus additional discussion on Ryan Jeffers, Nick Gordon, Miguel Sano, David Banuelos, J.T. Riddle, Jose Miranda, Drew Strotman, Edouard Julien, Michael Helman, Matt Wallner, Cody Laweryson and Noah Miller.

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  19. Like
    Tom Froemming got a reaction from Steve Lein in Twins Minor League Report (8/10): Balazovic Gets Back on Track   
    Sabato
     
  20. Like
    Tom Froemming reacted to Doctor Gast in VIDEO: Twins Trade Deadline Recap   
    I'm with you Tom, this FO is great on sitting back and receiving offers. But I'm too very disappointed that we weren't buyers and we should've been. To be an competing club we need to be good buyers and get the club in that position to do so. They had not.
  21. Haha
    Tom Froemming got a reaction from wabene in VIDEO: Twins Trade Deadline Recap   
    I was doing alright for the first 15 minutes or so. 🤪
  22. Like
    Tom Froemming got a reaction from Seth Stohs in VIDEO: Twins Trade Deadline Recap   
    I was doing alright for the first 15 minutes or so. 🤪
  23. Like
    Tom Froemming reacted to Matthew Lenz in Game Score: Cardinals 5, Twins 1   
    What are your expectations for him? Coming into this season he was a non top-30 prospect in the organization who shouldn't have sniffed Target Field had things gone as planned. Any production he can give to the Twins over the next couple years is probably more than would have been expected of him, especially if it comes as a starter.
  24. Haha
    Tom Froemming got a reaction from ashbury in VIDEO: Twins Trade Deadline Recap   
    I was doing alright for the first 15 minutes or so. 🤪
  25. Like
    Tom Froemming got a reaction from glunn in THE ATHLETIC: Buxton, Twins Cannot Come to Terms on an Extension   
    The Minnesota Twins had been engaged in contract extension discussions with Byron Buxton in recent weeks but The Athletic is reporting the two sides have been unable to reach an agreement. What does this mean for Buxton and how might this impact other members of the Twins?
    Here is the link to the original report, which comes from Dan Hayes and Ken Rosenthal. Per that report, the Twins originally brought a seven-year, $73 million offer with a “unique incentive package” but Buxton’s camp countered with an undisclosed offer. The Twins increased the guarantee up to $80 million but it still did not satisfy Buxton and his agency.
    Here is a video in which I offer my reaction to the news and discuss a potential domino-effect of these negotiations.
    It’s important to note that in the headine at The Athletic they specifically called out that this increased the chance of an offseason trade. Buxton is still not back to health, so it’s unlikely any team would target him as a trade piece between now and Friday’s trade deadline.
    Another item of note from the report is the likelihood of Taylor Rogers being traded was characterized as “likely” as the demand for relievers increases. 
    Buxton is currently on the Injured List with a fractured left hand he suffered on a hit by pitch. In 110 plate appearances this season, he’s hit .369/.409/.767 (1.176 OPS). He’s making $3.075 million via arbitration this year, and with a small sample of stats to increase his case, I can’t imagine his projected salary through arbitration will escalate a great deal, depending on what else he does this season. After that, he’s set to become a free agent entering his age-29 season.
    I decided to get a poll going over on Twitter to see whether or not people thought this was a fair extension offer. Here it is below, you can see the results in real time after you vote. Let me know down in the comments how you feel.
    Joe Mauer’s eight-year, $184 million extension is (of course) the largest in team history. The biggest free agent contract the org has ever inked is Josh Donaldson’s four-year, $92 million deal. Some recent extensions signed by the club are Randy Dobnak’s five-year, $9.25 million deal from March and the deals signed in February of 2019 by Max Kepler (five-year, $35 million) and Jorge Polanco (five-year $25.75 million).
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