Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

wsnydes

Verified Member
  • Posts

    5,426
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    8

Reputation Activity

  1. Like
    wsnydes got a reaction from Twins33 in Ranking the 2021 Twins Rookies On Long-Term Value   
    I have no real qualms with this order, aside from maybe Ryan being above Larnach.  I tend to value pitching more than a corner outfield types with below average gloves, even if they have middle of the order potential.
    Admittedly, there could be some recent SSS playing into that logic in this particular case.
  2. Like
    wsnydes reacted to a-wan in Eddie Rosario   
    Rosario was so sought after at the trade deadline that the Braves traded the desiccated corpse of Pablo Sandoval to get him. 🙄
  3. Like
    wsnydes reacted to Brock Beauchamp in 2008-2016: the Twins, centerfield, and wasted talent   
    Recently, I was doing some really boring work in the yard, mulling over how we may have watched the final game of Byron Buxton in a Twins uniform. I certainly hope that's not the case and will likely write a lengthy post about it another time but I'd put the odds of him being traded this offseason at no lower than 40%.

    As I kinda seethed over the idea of Buxton being traded, it led to me to start thinking of how many years were wasted before he turned into the beastly hitter he is today.
    That led me to start thinking about his predecessor, Aaron Hicks... and holy ****, the same thing happened to him, too!
    So then I started thinking about Carlos Gomez and... wow, the Twins wasted so much centerfield talent in the wake of losing Torii Hunter after the 2007 season.
    Carlos Gomez (2008-2009)
    So let's go back in time a bit... In the offseason leading up to 2008, we saw Torii Hunter sign with the Los Angeles Anaheim Angels of Angeles Anaheim and the Twins, worried about losing Johan Santana the following year, traded him to the Mets with the centerpiece being Carlos Gomez, their young centerfielder.
    The Mets had obviously rushed Gomez to the majors, as he posted just a 55 OPS+ in his age 21 season. The Twins, obviously feeling some pressure at the loss of Hunter, continued to throw Gomez out there every day and he continued to be very bad at hitting a baseball. There was some questioning of whether Gomez had any business in MLB and the Twins did him no favors. He ended his Twins career with the following line:
    Year Tm G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB 2008-2009 MIN 290 963 892 130 221 39 12 10 87 47 18 47 214 .248 .293 .352 .645 73 314 8 11 10 3 0 Despite his otherworldly defense, Gomez was at best a mediocre player with the Twins. But then he was traded and posted the following line for his years in Milwaukee:
    Year Tm G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB 2010-2014 MIL 623 2262 2047 322 547 102 24 79 245 145 30 136 521 .267 .324 .456 .780 110 934 39 43 22 14 4 Yikes. So, yeah, uh... this is only the beginning.
    Aaron Hicks (2013-2015)
    Fans expected Hicks to be TNGTCF (The Next Great Twins CenterFielder), washing the bad taste of Gomez in Milwaukee out of our mouths and returning us to the glory days of Puckett and Hunter. It didn't really work out for us this time, either. Hicks, fresh off a very good AA season in 2012, opened the 2013 MLB season as the Twins' starting centerfielder. This decision was also questioned at the time and the results ended up being Carlos Gomez Redux. It became so bad at one point in Hicks' Twins career that he gave up switch-hitting and didn't tell his coaches. No one seemed to have any clue what was going on, least of all Hicks. Over three seasons with the Twins, he posted this painful line:
    Year Tm G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB 2013-2015 MIN 247 928 819 107 184 30 6 20 78 26 9 94 206 .225 .306 .349 .655 81 286 8 4 6 5 2 He bounced back and forth in the minors a bit before ultimately being traded to the Damned Yankees for the empty uniform of John Ryan Murphy. And then he proceeded to do this in a Yankees uniform over the following five seasons:
    Year Tm G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB 2016-2020 NYY 461 1769 1498 245 360 69 6 68 219 29 14 243 356 .240 .346 .431 .776 108 645 22 7 4 17 3 Hicks has been injured and the Yankees were a bit over-eager in extending him but it's hard to do anything but cringe at that line and all the wasted (cheap) years of Hicks the Twins gave away.
    Byron Buxton (2015-present)
    Buxton and Hicks had a single year of overlap as Buxton debuted as a 21 year-old rookie in 2015 alongside Hicks' final season in a Twins uniform. Buxton was... not good... and the trend continued. After posting a miserable 57 OPS+ in 139 plate appearances as a rookie, the Twins said "looks good, he's our centerfielder of the future!" and promptly traded Aaron Hicks that offseason.
    Buxton continued to be not good. Like Gomez and Hicks before him, aggressive promotion and lack of coaching consistency plagued Byron as he constantly changed his swing, stance, and approach. The Twins wanted him to be a groundball speed guy while the game itself was screaming for Byron to become Willie Mays, not Willie Mays Hayes. Over the two seasons of Byron struggling under the Ryan administration, he posted the following line:
    Year Tm G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB 2015-2016 MIN 138 469 427 60 94 26 7 12 44 12 4 29 162 .220 .274 .398 .672 80 170 3 4 6 3 0 Then came Falvey and Levine. While they didn't implement many coaching changes over the 2016-2017 offseason, changes were coming. Buxton had his only healthy, full season while posting the following line:
    Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards 2017 23 MIN AL 140 511 462 69 117 14 6 16 51 29 1 38 150 .253 .314 .413 .728 93 191 1 4 5 2 2 *8/HD MVP-18,GG In 2018, we basically didn't see Byron Buxton in Minnesota, as the all-too-familiar injury bug limited his playing time in the majors. But when he returned in 2019 with a more stabilized swing, approach, and comfort level, Beast Mode Buxton emerged, finally showing Twins fans the player they anticipated watching since that June day in 2012. Since 2019, Buxton has done the following:
    Year Tm G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB 2019-2021 MIN 187 684 636 117 176 56 4 42 105 25 5 34 166 .277 .321 .575 .897 137 366 5 9 2 3 1 On a per-game basis, he's probably the best player in baseball.
    Which makes all of this the more sad. We've watched future All-Star centerfielders grow up in Minnesota but leave before we see true greatness emerge in them. Which is why it's not only important for this front office to sign Buxton, it's far and away the most important thing they can do this offseason. Instead of giving up on yet another fantastic up-the-middle talent before they're ready to shine, the Twins need to stop making the same mistake and do one thing:
    Pay. The. Man.
  4. Like
    wsnydes reacted to ashbury in Projected Arbitration Numbers From MLBTradeRumors   
    With the exception of Gant, salary should not be a deciding factor on keeping or jettisoning any of these players, and hopefully the team will find a satisfactory way to avoid arbitration on each.  E.g. I would not discard Duffey in hopes of getting someone equivalent but for less, nor would I keep Refsnyder just because he'll work cheaply.
    Even Gant is merely marginal at that price, and if his agent understands that his client will likely come out behind if he is cut and forced to find another team, the parties may be able to come to an agreement slightly under the listed value.
    That number sounds low for Garver, but I'm not going to invest effort trying to understand why it's fair nor what additional factors there may be.  Don't play hardball on this guy's contract, Twins, there's something to be said for being known as a desirable organization to get drafted by and then succeed with!
  5. Like
    wsnydes got a reaction from Minny505 in Ranking the 2021 Twins Rookies On Long-Term Value   
    I have no real qualms with this order, aside from maybe Ryan being above Larnach.  I tend to value pitching more than a corner outfield types with below average gloves, even if they have middle of the order potential.
    Admittedly, there could be some recent SSS playing into that logic in this particular case.
  6. Haha
    wsnydes reacted to ashbury in Zoll a finalist for Cubs' GM Job   
    I look forward to the day we again achieve this lofty level.
  7. Haha
    wsnydes reacted to Brock Beauchamp in Zoll a finalist for Cubs' GM Job   
    Whoopsies. 
  8. Like
    wsnydes got a reaction from TheLeviathan in 3 Things Learned About the Twins' Farm System in 2021   
    I tend to agree with @Mike Sixel on the bats.  Though, they're probably a little top heavy.  Not a ton of depth there, or versatility defensively.  At least position players are easier to acquire.  If I can't have both, I'd much rather have quality pitching depth getting developed.
  9. Like
    wsnydes reacted to Mike Sixel in Who Can the Twins Deal?   
    They aren't making major roster decisions only for opening day, imo.
  10. Like
    wsnydes reacted to old nurse in Who Can the Twins Deal?   
    Other than the there are less home runs, how is Polamco’s  2019 season any less than 2021?  There are no reasons to think his 2021 season is a fluke other than inmate pessimism 
  11. Like
    wsnydes reacted to old nurse in Who Can the Twins Deal?   
    Crown played in Denver last year. When checking numbers see what Cron hit for on the road. You won’t be crowing about the hitting, He only played a few games in Detroit
  12. Like
    wsnydes reacted to RonCoomersOPS in Who Can the Twins Deal?   
    Because it's damned near impossible to play LF and 1B at the same time.
  13. Like
    wsnydes reacted to USAFChief in Who Can the Twins Deal?   
    One of Sano/Kepler  has to go. Opens a spot for Kirilloff. 
     
    I'd also deal Arraez if there is a market. Not sure he's worth as much as people think. 
  14. Like
    wsnydes reacted to chpettit19 in Who Can the Twins Deal?   
    I don't trade Garver or Kepler at all this offseason. Catcher isn't the position of depth many people see it as. Garver is above average, and elite offensively. Rortvedt can't hit major league pitching, and Jeffers isn't ready to be the #1 guy. They don't have any catching behind those 3. I think Yan Gomes is the top FA catcher if I'm remembering correctly and that's not who I want to go into 2022 with either if I'm trying to get back into the division race.
    Kepler had a down year. Doesn't make much sense to me to trade him at a low point. He's still elite in the field, and with a young pitching staff you're going to want his glove in RF instead of a corner OF combination of Rooker, Larnach, Garlick, Arraez type fielders or Gordon and Celestino type hitters. Kepler isn't a star, but he's definitely good enough to hit 7th and play RF on a championship team.
    Arraez and Sano I'd be fine trading. I don't know why people think the Twins would have to eat a bunch of money for moving Sano. I don't think he's getting a top arm back, but his power is real and teams covet that. I think you can unload his 9M if you really want to. He's much like Kepler in that he isn't a star, but if he's hitting 6-8 in your order you can definitely compete.
    Arraez is the expendable piece (even though he's my favorite hitter right now and don't want him to leave), but he's also not worth much as a no-power, bat-only player. Nobody is giving up a top arm for him either. 
    I just don't think Twins have ML position player depth like others seem to think. They have a lot of players, but it's not like they're sitting all stars on their bench cuz they just can't get them in the lineup. They have a bunch of guys who are, or should be, solid MLB position players, but most of their positions are corner spots which are much easier to fill defensively and don't bring back the arms the Twins need. Nobody would claim Eddie last year, but we think people are going to give up top 3 rotation arms for these guys? I just don't see it. Development, FA $, and trading prospects are the tickets to improving the team (pitching staff) for 2022.
  15. Like
    wsnydes reacted to ashbury in Houston, Does the Central Have a Problem?   
    Or to make manifest just how far from genuine competitiveness they really are.
  16. Like
    wsnydes got a reaction from roger in Ranking the 2021 Twins Rookies On Long-Term Value   
    I have no real qualms with this order, aside from maybe Ryan being above Larnach.  I tend to value pitching more than a corner outfield types with below average gloves, even if they have middle of the order potential.
    Admittedly, there could be some recent SSS playing into that logic in this particular case.
  17. Like
    wsnydes got a reaction from dex8425 in Ranking the 2021 Twins Rookies On Long-Term Value   
    I have no real qualms with this order, aside from maybe Ryan being above Larnach.  I tend to value pitching more than a corner outfield types with below average gloves, even if they have middle of the order potential.
    Admittedly, there could be some recent SSS playing into that logic in this particular case.
  18. Like
    wsnydes got a reaction from Karbo in Ranking the 2021 Twins Rookies On Long-Term Value   
    I have no real qualms with this order, aside from maybe Ryan being above Larnach.  I tend to value pitching more than a corner outfield types with below average gloves, even if they have middle of the order potential.
    Admittedly, there could be some recent SSS playing into that logic in this particular case.
  19. Like
    wsnydes reacted to Brock Beauchamp in The Cusp Guys   
    So much depth and the real question is what part of it is good.
    The thing is that the team lost 89 games. They were distinctly very bad at playing baseball.
    So how much do we care about their current 40-man roster? I honestly do not know. The 40-man shuffle has yet to begin and I'm so interested to see where all of this goes.
  20. Like
    wsnydes got a reaction from DocBauer in Twins Daily 2021 Awards: Rookie of the Year   
    This is the logical choice.  Not much of a contest, in my view.  The team needed a pitcher to step up and Ober did just that.  One of the few positive developments on the pitching front this season.
    I hope he continues to build on this season and continues to develop.
  21. Like
    wsnydes reacted to Vanimal46 in 2021 Postseason Discussion and Game Thread   
    There’s not a right answer for series length in baseball. They can’t stretch it out much further when teams are located in northern climates. Personally I think the NBA/NHL playoffs go way too long and defeat the purpose of having a regular season. Baseball might as well embrace chaos of do or die games.
  22. Like
    wsnydes reacted to Otto von Ballpark in 2021 Postseason Discussion and Game Thread   
    Single-game tiebreakers have been part of the MLB play since the advent of divisions and expansion. The Bucky Dent game, or the 2009 Twins-Tigers game 163, or the 2007 Rockies-Padres game 163, are hardly akin to a HR derby.
    To me, it seems like a good balance right now. The playoff field isn't overly large as to seem diluted. The regular season is about division races. And the postseason is a tournament for regular season division champs plus a tiebreaker between the two best non-division winners.
  23. Like
    wsnydes reacted to Brock Beauchamp in 2021 Postseason Discussion and Game Thread   
    Frankly, I don’t really get the fuss anymore. I’m fine with three games but one is more fun and immediate. Three would be more balanced.
    Given the massive problems with this sport, a one game playoff probably doesn’t make the top 20 for me. 
  24. Like
    wsnydes reacted to TheLeviathan in 2021 Postseason Discussion and Game Thread   
    If baseball were in better shape as a sport I'd be inclined to agree, but I think we're at "hit the panic button like a toddler rings a doorbell".  Single game craziness it is for me.
  25. Like
    wsnydes reacted to LVTwinsfan in 2021 Postseason Discussion and Game Thread   
    I don’t mind one game series in baseball, how much consideration should a 2nd or 3rd place team get?
×
×
  • Create New...