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Posts posted by wsnydes

  1. I'm not convinced that acquiring Taylor guarantees a Kepler deal.  I see Taylor as insurance for Buxton, so Taylor and Kepler could coexist on the same team.  DH is still open.  LF is kinda up for grabs yet.  With Buxton's injury history, having someone available to fill those shoes on the roster is a pretty good idea.  They almost need to carry 5 outfielders in order to do that.

    And if they do trade Kepler, I think the Taylor deal allows them to worry less about bringing back a major league player.  It can be a borderline ready player that can come up to fill an injury spot and/or be more of a long term solution for something going forward.

  2. 5 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

    And I would guess the FO thinks so, too, or they wouldn't have traded him. However ... if that doesn't happen, then they projected incorrectly and will have to make more moves during the season. Or, maybe they aren't through, yet, and more is to come. The off-season isn't over yet.

    Agreed.  If the FO didn't think they'd be able to cover the loss, it wouldn't have made the deal.  They have options to fill the void.  They dealt from a position of depth to acquire a position of weakness.  

  3. 9 minutes ago, rwilfong86 said:

    Which side of the field were the majority of the ground balls hit last season? image.png.9c0f0e04c161518ef2671dbb08059a25.png

    Not a demonstrably large enough difference that would tell me that he's incapable of simply slapping the ball through a hole on the left side created by the shift.  He's not a power threat, so he's going to find the hole.  That's his skill set.

    And his line drive hits look to favor the left side.  Why would you make his life easier by creating holes for him to ground it through instead of forcing him to line it to LF?

  4. 25 minutes ago, rwilfong86 said:

    He was shifted 2% of his plate appearances, with his spray chart I'm surprised teams didn't shift him more to the right side. Probably good that now they can't shift him due to the rule change.Screenshot_20230122-194327_Twitter.jpg.5e262ec5fa99b12b6c093e83fcea4761.jpg

    You expect a real impact of the shift ban on a guy that was shifted a whole 2% of his PAs?  That means he was shifted on in 12 PAs.  There's no meaningful impact to be had there.  And I don't know why you'd think he'd get shifted more based on that spray chart.  That's the definition of using all fields.

  5. I'm going to preface this by saying that I like Arraez and really enjoy watching him hit.  I still value a guy that is a great on base guy.

    But let's be real. He's not an elite player.  He's not a great defensive player and he doesn't have a position.  His power is limited.  The lack of a shift won't impact him at all since, as @chpettit19mentioned, he wasn't getting shifted on in the first place.  This is 2023, the three true outcomes rules the game for better or worse.  The Twins turned that type of player around and acquired a reliable #2/3 rotation guy capable of 180 innings a year, as @se7799points out, plus a borderline top 100 SS prospect and a lottery ticket.  A team can't have too many SS's.  They're always valuable as a player or trade bait.  To say that the Twins got fleeced in this deal is missing the big picture.  As much as it might suck as a fan, it was a very good baseball move.

    Luis turning down a contract offer seems like par for the course of a guy that is after a long term deal.  That's what happens in a negotiation.  Good for him.

  6. There's two ways to look at this.  One, is that the FO is simply ignoring the injury history in hopes that the ppl layer stays healthy and the upside of a deal pans out.  The second is to recognize that players like this tend to come cheaper and yet still pose some upside should they stay, or even while, they stay healthy.  Either way, they're trying to capitalize on upside.  Given that many of these deals, particularly with pitchers, are short term deals they're trying to maximize the potential of catching lightning in a bottle while also minimizing long term risk.

    Some of the players listed here don't really fit into this conversation, in my opinion.  There's always a risk for players to get injured.  It's exceedingly rare that a player has a long career without so injuries.  

    I'm not sure I completely agree with the FO's approach on injury prone players, but I also don't think they're as careless about it as some suggest.

  7. 6 minutes ago, roger said:

    I continue to believe that the most serious injury concern the Twins have is not either of these two, rather, Alex Kirilloff.  Yes, Buxton playing 130 games likely puts the Twins in the playoffs.  But if AK can play 130+ games I am confident he will be one of the better hitters in baseball.  Fortunately, early reports are that he is swinging the bat pain free.

    I think this logic has some merit.  I still think Buxton and Correa are ultimately more important, but the production of lesser players like AK are extremely important for this team and where it eventually finds itself at the end of the season.  I think AK is most certainly in that conversation.

  8. It's hard to argue with their W/L success, but it's equally as hard to argue that they aren't a drag on the overall health of the game.  They have lots of factors working against them like ballpark quality and location, local apathy, and a fan base that largely isn't from Tampa and has their hometown allegiance, among several others, but it's not like they contribute much to the league with their low payrolls and refusal to spend much, if anything, out of their own pocket.  That's not healthy for the game or the league.

    I envy the way they identify players and develop them, but that's about it.

  9. 1 minute ago, Heymel said:

    Didn’t Reusse opine yesterday that Kirilloff might have a difficult time coming back from last year’s surgery?

    That's been a concern, yes.  Difficult surgery plus it's always a worry when you're messing with a hitters wrist.  

    Welcome to TD!

  10. Barring a blockbuster type trade, the only one on this list that I see actually being dealt this off-season is Kepler.  Beyond that, it's more subtraction by addition and I don't know what scenario that makes sense in.  

    With the logjam of corner types, they need to see who actually performs before jettisoning any of those guys.  That seems better suited for a deadline deal, not the offseason.  Trading pitching on this team makes no sense unless they're bringing an equal replacement or upgrade back.  

    Gordon is one of those weird types of player that has no real trade value, but is one of those players that every good team needs.  At best , he's an add in for a team.  

  11. 24 minutes ago, EGFTShaw said:

    But the staff full of NRs might scare you because each one would plunk you at the plate.  LOL

    I am not as scared with this staff as I was in 2021 and the beginning of last year.

    No more reclamation projects hope to strike lighting multiple times in a bottle.

    Top 5 pitching staff?  No.  But I think they are going to be good from 1-5+

    A staff full of Ryan's is a much different scared, that is true.

    I still don't see them stacking up against a legitimate playoff team's staff.  That's always my issue.  They may do fine in the regular season, but when other teams are throwing a legit ace at you every other game with a top end #2 in between, that's not a recipe for success.  I know that's a tough ask, but that's the state of the game if you want to win come October.

  12. 28 minutes ago, ashbury said:

    No. Richie said he likes the sad emoji. So I was gallant enough to provide one. I see your smiley, but just in case there's doubt from others.

    Ha!  I misread his post!  

    Time for a nap...

  13. The move certainly improves the off-season outlook and the roster, but I still think they've got work to do.  And the off-season isn't over yet, so there is still time to do things push the team to another level.  But they need to be healthier and have some young guys step up.

    The pitching still scares me.  But in all fairness, I'll probably say that with a staff full of Nolan Ryan's, so take that for what you will.

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