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Andrew Luedtke

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Blog Comments posted by Andrew Luedtke

  1. That's a great point. I never thought of it like that. Plus, the Orioles nabbed Freddy Galvis too so he's off the board. Basically, if they can't get Didi, maybe they pivot to just selling the team. Would LOVE Gray.

    Simmons acquisition could be a double blessing. 1st we strengthened our SS position. 2nd we took away the Reds last shot at a legitimate SS. Without a legitimate SS and the Reds are thinking about trading their capable 3B, Reds pitchers, Castillo and Gray would probably lose trading value because grounders are going through for hits. Hopefully our players value will go up. Then makes it more feasible to trade
    Jefferies could be a fit for BP


  2. I'd welcome any of those trade targets. I am not sure what is going on with the middle tier of the bullpen market. At this point, maybe Colome takes a 1-year deal?

    Would love Sonny Gray on the SP side but it seems unlikely we will give up the assets necessary to get him. I could actually see us signing Arrieta or Hamels on a 1 year deal, or even trading for Jon Gray. I've been interested in Colome for the BP from the beginning and Jeffries would be a nice addition. I'm just not sure that the Twins would spring for the multiyear deal and cost of a Colome. Jeffries might be more realistic.  


  3. I think it's pretty clear that biggest way to upgrade this team is to acquiure a SS. I think I'd rather pay Didi/Simmons/Semien on a 1-2 year deal than trade. Marwin makes sense for this team if he is the 2nd UTIL guy, not the 1st guy off the bench like his role was in 2019-2020.


    A combination of Polanco, Arraez, Marwin, and Simmons/Didi/Semien gives your lineup a lot of flexibility and depth. I'd prefer this route over acquiring a guy like Hernandez, Profar, or LaStella. 

  4. Castillo would be fun but if the rumors are true that the Reds asked for Gleyber Torres in return, that would be a haul the Twins would be giving up. Lewis or Kirilloff would be gone. Maybe both. 


    After seeing what Musgrove went for, I am thinking the price for Gray may not be as high. I don't hate Castellanos but feel his contract and what he brings to the table leaves room to be desired. He's not solid defensively so basically he's just a DH. The Twins are better off giving up more in prospect capital to get Gray and just pay Nelson Cruz! 


    Fangraphs projects a 4 year deal for Ozuna and a 2 year for Cruz. All things being equal, you'd take Ozuna on a 2 year deal over Nellie, but I think that's unlikely unless his market falls apart. 



  5. I think he makes a ton of sense on the Twins. Vet, can play multiple spots, and the bat is still there. Like I said in the beginning, I would rather pay Clippard and Cabrera a combined $6M on a one year deal than Hernandez $7M/year. Villar is the biggest stretch on this list. His market would really have to fall apart before he ended up here.

    Cabrera is a guy I have my eye on. She should come inexpensively and has veteran experience. If he's league average, i think I'm OK with that for my 10th man.

    Not my very 1st choice, but with other roster considerations and finances to consider, I kinda like him.

    Hadn't considered Villar but like that idea. Unfortunately, he might not fit in the budget.


  6. Fair. I don't think any of these guys you sign to more than a one-year deal. So there's less risk. I would rather start with a guy like Cabrera and if he isn't doing what they expect, then look to fill the spot with Blankenhorn, Gordon, Lewis, etc. midway through the year. For a team in win-now mode, I would like to see both utility spots go a big leaguer to start the year. If there's a minor league season and someone is playing well, maybe they can bring them in. Injuries will happen too. 

    Not a fan of signing aging, declining players, If Twins go bargain, maybe just go internal and see what Gordon and Blankenhorn can do until Lewis and/or others are ready. I can see signing one FA and using one internal option for 2 utility infield spots.


  7. I think I would be OK with that and could totally see it. I just hope that their intention is Wacha would be the #5 SP, not the #4 with giving Dobnak the #5 spot. I really hope they go after two SP.


    Wacha would be a fun Wes project. In a small sample his K-BB% was best in his career. I think he had a bit of bad luck too. His BABIP in 2020 was .366. Put him in front of a better defense with a better pitching support staff and I think there is something here.


    If he gives you 150+ innings of a 4.25 - 4.50 ERA, you could do much worse for your #5 with such a low investment. 


    OK, after doing some quick research, I am kind of excited about Wacha's potential.

    Mark my words, it’ll be Michael Wacha, and he’s going to play a lot better than the 1/5M contract we’ll sign him for.


  8. That's an awesome point that I guess I should have addressed in the blog. The price for McHugh is not just McHugh...it's McHugh and whoever you lose. I agree. I think they see something in Wisler and it might be tough to bump him for McHugh if they believe Wisler has more upside than McHugh. McHugh's health being a factor too. Jon Gray or Robbie Ray, that's a different story. My hope is that if they go with this swingman approach with a young guy, they stick Graterol in the rotation then move him to the pen once Pineda returns or later. Currently, I feel there is too much weight in Thorpe, Smelly, and Dobnak. This would alleviate slightly some pressure. 

    I think there's certainly a good argument to be made that he would be a good signing. If they announced that they'd picked him up on a reasonable deal today I'd be happy. I just wonder if they're inclined to do so with the way the pitching staff is already constructed. He had elbow problems last season and while another arm in the mix for the rotation would be great, we're already counting on missed time from Pineda and Hill. 


    He'd be a good swing man for the rotation and bullpen, although I think they like their young guys to be able to fill that role. The other issue is the 40 man at this point. They already have to dump someone for Donaldson. I would get rid of Wisler all day for McHugh but it looks like the front office has taken a strong interest in him so I don't know that they would. They may be at a point where the pitching additions they're looking at are high impact and they're trusting the lower rungs to be filled out by the young guys.


  9. They're pretty different pitchers. Here are their 2018 - 2019 stats as a comparison. McHugh gets more K's and is better overall. Plus, I envision under this "swingman" idea, he would see most of his time in the bullpen after Pineda returns. 


    McHugh Vs Bailey

    Good thought, It depends on what type pitcher he is. If he`s like Bailey, we don`t need another ground ball pitcher. 1 is plenty. I believe we can a get higher upside pitcher. We have plenty of pitchers to fill in as reliever who would do a good job


  10. Thanks for stopping by. I would have liked to take a flier on Wood...especially for the price the Dodgers paid. I think he has upside in the rotation and if that didn't work out, he had solid numbers in the 'pen. Could have been a good lefty option to compliment Rogers. Oh well. I could be talked into Walker but the reason I liked McHugh was because he could be added to the bullpen after making some spot starts in the rotation. His SP numbers in 2019 were not pretty but after seeing he was pretty good in 5 of his first 6 starts, why not go get him on a one-year deal. 

    Wow. A very convincing arguement. Other than trade, the only guys I would consider were Wood and Walker. We lost out on Wood, a mistake IMO, but could still have a very interesting flier in Walker. I have never really considered McHugh. Probably was dismissive of being 32yo, so-so stat line from 2019, and not considered a true SO. But you've made me look closer to not only 2019, but to his career, and now I'm thinking he would be a cheap, 1yr late January addition that could make an awful lot of sense. While every addition has certainly not worked out, the FO has made it a habit the past couple of years of brining guys in late on value contracts. Could this be another one?


  11. I too hope they aim higher than Frazier if they make this move, however, would Frazier be a better 2020 fit than the remaining 1B free agent options or internal options? This is assuming we miss out on JD, of course. 


    2019 stats:


    Todd Frazier


    .251/.329/.443 with 21 HR's, 106 wRC+, 1.9 WAR - and just about average defense at 3B


    Mitch Moreland 


    .252/.328/.507 with 19 HR's, 112 wRC+, .7 WAR in 91 games - just about average defense, almost assuredly be a step up from Sano defensively at 1B


    Marwin Gonzalez


    .264/.322/.414 with 15 HR's, 93wRC+, 1.4 WAR - having Marwin play 1B or platoon hurts his greatest ability which is being versatile. 


    After seeing this laid out, yeah, I hope we land Donaldson or make a trade?


    I don't know that Todd Frazier is the upgrade I'd want to move Sano off 3B for. He had 1 DRS at 3B, and paired with his declining offense which is already a nonfactor against right handed pitching, I don't see him being a noteworthy difference. It seems like if we want to make an all encompassing upgrade it's Donaldson or bust.


  12. Thanks for reading. I agree. I think the sooner they declare Sano a 1B, if they are going to move him, the better. In a perfect world they would have announced to Sano as they were packing up their lockers after the playoffs that he should focus on 1B this offseason. That being said, he had to "learn" RF in a month in 2016. Remember that disaster? 1B I believe is easier to play and he has played there before ie. he actually owns a 1B mitt. If they don't move him this season, I wonder if they move him next if he has a similar defensive year. 

    I really do not like the defensive metrics. Defense to me is an eye test thing, and like you stated Sano doesn't pass!  With all the shifts and 3B moving to traditional SS puts a premium on defense at 3B, and the need for greater lateral movement.  I think a lot more balls get hit and hit hard there and the opportunity to make plays is significant.


    I think a move to 1B is perfect for Sano. Sano is an athlete, I know moving him ot 1B takes away his best asset, his arm, but a lot lets hard hit ball and a lot less asking to cover significant ground.


    With a good amount of time at spring training working on footwork and scoops I think Sano will be fine full time at 1B.  Having the need to just knock the ball down and flip to pitcher and staying home at the corner will help.  I think Sano will look ok at 1B and wont seem to be such a liability improving the pitching and defense significantly.


  13. I think there is definitely ways this could be improved ie a trade, getting Wheeler for a lesser deal, and I too would prefer Castro on a one year deal over Maldonado. I just think he's going to want (and get) a two year deal to start somewhere. I hope they can turn this fan wishful thinking in a reality!

    This is my favorite plan thus far. (Much in keeping with my own thoughts). Not only is this a good plan, it is a very, very realistic one! It is sound and doesn't require a ton of moving parts that various trade scenarios offer up.

    As someone else stated, could be a little high on Wheeler, but all the financial parameters are in place.

    I think I might prefer a couple more $M and keep Castro at catcher. And I find myself torn on Hammels vs a return of Pineda, even with the suspension.

    But I'd be awfully happy and optimistic if this turned out to be reality.


  14. I am all open to Romo, I really do think he will be back. His market last year was non-existent. $3.5M on a one year deal should get it done. I felt that if I had to pick Harris or Romo, I was willing to go with Harris, but why not both! 


    Pineda over Hamels is also fine with me. If we can get him on an affordable two year deal, that would help more so with 2021 than Hamels on a one-year deal. 


    Let's hope this is what our roster looks like on Opening Day! 

    Good looking plan. I would just mention my preference would be to bring back Romo and Pineda if possible (over Hamels) but you never know where players end up going /shrug. Really like Will Harris as a relief target. Hopefully the Twins are looking at him in addition to some top flight SP.


  15. I am very onboard with putting together a deal for Wood. I wonder if he would be open to a 2-3 year deal with low money. Maybe something similar to what Perez got last year ie. $6M per year with a team option for 2021 of $9M. The Twins seem to like those deals. MLB TR has him projected for $8M on a one year deal. I am all in if they can make it work. Can't hurt. I just would like to see that signing be more of a luxury than banking on him being our #3 starter. 

    Add Alex Wood


  16. Yeah, for some reason I just feel that his market is going to be strong since more teams in theory will be in on Wheler than Cole or Stras. Anywhere in the $20-$25M range makes sense even though that might seem like overpaying. If Odorizzi rejects the QO, I think a 3 year deal in the $12-$15M range is in play. I'm with you on Hamels being low. I saw MLB TR projected a 2/$15M deal. But who knows, maybe we can put something together that is incentive loaded on a one year deal. 


    With extensions, who knows, maybe they can get creative and push money out further. 


    I think Berrios makes sense as an extension candidate. If we give him what the Phillies gave Aaron Nola (4/$45M) even that only bumps up our payroll to $148.25 - which is getting on the high side, but the Pohlad's can manage :) 


    Very realistic and well done. Your numbers for Wheeler might be high, but they likely even out with your low estimates on Odo and Hamels.


    I could see non-tendering Cron and bringing him back for a lesser amount. He was good until he got hurt. With your way, he is guaranteed to be back for only one year with no hard feelings.


    If that's all the Pohlads put into the pot, there is no money for extensions.


  17. That would be ideal. It would be nice to have that surefire #1 ace that can almost "guarantee" a win in a playoff game. Cole or Stras obviously fit that mold. Another option would be to try to improve the #5 spot in the rotation via trade and hope that guy can maybe have a ceiling as a #2 or #3. Maybe the Twins could target Jon Gray, Robbie Ray, or take a flier on Chris Archer if they believe there is untapped potential. For now, I kind of like the idea of leaving the #5 spot open and hope that Graterol can be an impact arm or who knows, maybe Balazovic is ready by Sep 2020. 


    Either way, I am happy we are going into the off-season talking about playoff match-ups instead of hoping to even make the wildcard game. A fresh change of pace in Minnesota! 

    This plan is totally realistic and has as much chance to win in the playoffs as any other team. I hope this happens. Only way to make it better is to sign Strasburg or Garrit Cole on a contract they could opt out after 3 years.


  18. I have thought about this exact same thing @rgarfinkle. I like Greinke and definitely think he would be an "ace" for this staff for at least 2 years. He does come with concerns though. He is 34 years old and has 4 years remaining on his contract. If we were able to give up more in order for Arizona to eat some of his remaining contract, count me in. However, I don't see a deal getting done before the season. Arizona is very much going for it this year. If they are out of it at the trade deadline, maybe there is an opportunity then. 

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