glunn reacted to Aggies7 in Twins 6, Royals 3: Twins Lose No-Hitter in Ninth Inning
316 recognized no hitters since 1876, and the manager decided his starter wouldn’t be 317.
glunn reacted to USAFChief in Twins 6, Royals 3: Twins Lose No-Hitter in Ninth Inning
I'm not sure which I like better: Rocco not sending Ryan out for the 8th, or getting himself into a situation where he has Duran warming in a game his team had a no hitter and 6-0 lead thru 7.
Also no game Twins game would be complete without incomprehensible baserunning.
Hard for me to even take any joy out of this win. Baseball needs to have some soul, not computer printouts.
glunn reacted to Jamie Cameron in Twins 6, Royals 3: Twins Lose No-Hitter in Ninth Inning
The Twins lost a combined no-hit bid with one out in the ninth inning when Bobby Witt Jr doubled off Jovani Moran. Carlos Correa, Jose Miranda, and Gio Urshela all hit home runs for the Twins in a comfortable 6-3 win.
Image courtesy of Brad Rempel - USA Today Sports Box Score
Starting Pitcher: Ryan 7.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 9 K
Homeruns: Correa (20), Miranda (15), Urshela (12)
Top 3 WPA: Ryan .285, Correa .243, Arraez .137
Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)
Here’s how the Twins lined up to face the Kansas City Royals in the opening game of a three game series at Target Field on Tuesday night.
Remaining Big Bats Bop
The Twins offense rolled against Kansas City on Monday night. Although he runs didn’t come immediately, they kept at it, and were eventually rewarded. The Twins jumped out to a 2-0 lead in the third inning with a double from Carlos Correa and a single from Jose Miranda scoring Gilberto Celestino and Luis Arraez.
The Twins added to their lead in the middle innings. Correa continued his torrid hitting, clubbing his 20th home run of the season into the left-field seats. Miranda followed with the second home run of the inning, his 15th overall. Miranda’s production (125 wRC+) and continued health have been one of the few kindnesses Twins fans have experienced in a deflating second half of the season. His performance has surely cemented his standing as an organizational lynchpin for the Twins moving forwards.
Gio Urshela added a home run, his 12th, in the sixth inning, taking the Twins tally to 11 hits on the night. Four players had at least two hits, led by Arraez and Correa with three each.
Joe Ryan Carries No-Hitter Through Seven Innings
Joe Ryan has not been the same pitcher for the Minnesota Twins since an early season bout with COVID. His velocity was down for a time afterwards, his command and control more shaky. Not tonight (insert Kurt Russell Miracle gif). Tonight, Ryan was dominant.
Ryan threw seven no-hit innings for the Twins, tallying nine strikeouts on 106 pitches. Ryan showed good command and control throughout his start, generating 13 swings and misses. The crowd let the Twins hear about it when he was pulled for Jovani Moran at the top of the eighth inning. With a 99% win probability, Ryan desperately needed in the next series against Cleveland, and having thrown over 100 pitches, it was a sensible call.
While Burnsville armchair GMs were lamenting Rocco Baldelli’s decision to pull Ryan from the game, Jovani Moran struck out two batters on his way to a scoreless eighth inning. The Twins were three outs away from a combined no-hitter. Moran returned in the ninth inning, striking out Drew Waters before walking Hunter Dozier and MJ Melendez. Moran then gave up a double to Bobby Witt Jr to get the Royals on the board and end the no-hit bid with one out in the ninth inning. Moran gave up another two runs, cutting the lead to 6-3, before finally slamming the door with his fourth strikeout.
Bullpen Usage Chart
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE TOT Sands 0 77 0 0 0 77 Lopez 0 0 18 0 0 18 Duran 0 0 27 0 0 27 Pagán 0 33 0 0 0 33 Moran 17 0 0 0 40 57 Sanchez 46 0 0 0 0 46 Fulmer 0 0 18 0 0 18 Thielbar 0 0 15 0 0 15 Davis 0 0 0 0 0 0 Jax 0 0 8 0 0 8 Megill 0 14 0 0 0 14 Next Up
On Wednesday, the Twins will continue their series against the Royals. Sonny Gray starts for Minnesota, against Zack Greinke for the Royals. First pitch is a 6:40 CT.
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glunn reacted to Nashvilletwin in In the End, the 2022 Twins Never Stood a Chance
Apologies upfront if this post may be TLDR for many.
Nick, this a well written post that describes in great detail the enormous hurdles that injuries put in front of this team. Thank you.
Your post raises two questions for me. The first, were these enormous hurdles in fact insurmountable? The second, what does this mean in terms of the future leadership of the team?
There are many, and it appears you are in this camp, that would answer yes to the first. There are many other TDers, perhaps the minority, who are tremendously sympathetic with the argument, but cannot out of hand dismiss the managerial, player and front office blunders that certainly contributed to many victories being left on the table. But, IMHO, the question is moot from a “blame” standpoint; we are where we are and what matters is where we go from here.
The Twins are a well-positioned mid market organization. We have excellent owners, facilities, farm system, and tradition. We have access to capital, albeit not unlimited, to acquire the occasional high priced FA player. We have a tremendous roster of young, up-and-coming players. So, specifically, what does it take for a mid market organization such as ours to consistently and realistically compete with the big market teams and the smart/shrewd/well-run small-mid market teams for the Pennant. Here are a few thoughts re the criteria:
1. Consistent development of big leaguers through the system.
2. FO excellence in trades, FA acquisitions, and player retention.
3, Strong fundamental baseball from players and coaches in all aspects of the game.
4. Maximizing the potential of the players who make it to the Show.
5. Health - keeping the players on the field (and it’s all not just luck).
6. Team culture of confidence, camaraderie, accountability and commitment.
The small-mid market teams that do these things well will be the ones competing for championships against the larger market clubs. If you don’t do these things well, teams like the Twins will be destined for mediocrity.
So to address the second question, perhaps it makes sense to open-mindedly evaluate how our FO and coaching staff have performed, and realistically could be expected to perform, in these areas. Perhaps other than the first, one could argue that the Twins owners should seek substantive improvement from existing or new leadership if these are truly criteria for success.
glunn reacted to Yawn Gardenhose in In the End, the 2022 Twins Never Stood a Chance
On July 5th, the Twins were 10 games over .500 and had a 4.5 game lead on the division. At that time, 11 of these 16 injured players were on the injured list then and most had been shelved for the majority of the season at that point - only Larnach's injury occurred recently to that July 5th date. And of the players whose injuries occurred after 7/5, one was Mahle who was still a Cincinnati Red at this time.
Injuries have hit them hard, but I think it's mostly quantity than quality. The most impactful injuries are the latest two - Buxton and Polanco. You could argue that some of the injuries have benefited the Twins too. If Sano doesn't get hurt, Arraez might not have taken off to the extent he did, and it's possible that Miranda doesn't get as long of a look without the opportunity that was created for him. And it's hard for me to put too much stock into Lewis's injury from a "how it affected the 2022 Minnesota Twins" standpoint, as he wasn't expected to be a major contributor to the big-league club this year anyway, particularly after they signed Correa (his injury is much more concerning from a development/big-picture organizational standpoint).
The injuries in total are definitely a factor in the collapse, but more importantly I think they've helped to expose some glaring flaws with this organization's philosophy and approach on several fronts. Acknowledging and correcting those flaws will make this season not totally for naught as good organizations adapt and learn from mistakes. Unfortunately I don't think this organization is in the hands of people that are terribly good at identifying their mistakes much less righting them. I hope I'm wrong.
glunn reacted to tony&rodney in In the End, the 2022 Twins Never Stood a Chance
Because Maeda is really the only guy likely to be healthy next year, does tomorrow's article get titled "From the beginning the 2023 Twins never stand a chance?"
Now I don't mean that in any negative manner (it does sound bad) because I like your articles. It just seems like the Twins are more reactive than proactive. In 2019 Manfred and a very weak AL Central gifted a flawed yet exciting team a path. The Twins had multiple options to address their weaknesses and chose to reboot. I liked that the team won but the manner was flawed from strategy to player personnel. I'm not going to quit on the Twins but having been a fan since the beginning (1961), the poor fundamentals are a sour point for me as it has been with other teams through the years. Perhaps Varland, SWR, Lewis, Lee, and Wallner (DH) can bring something to the team in 2023, but it does seem like there is a pile of players who are going to find themselves too often on the IL again instead of in the lineup. I hope I'm wrong, I really do. From last November it seemed like this was the year but so much went wrong. I agree the injuries were horrendous but the planning and player acquisition along with the continued failure to care about fundamental baseball hurt the team even more.
glunn reacted to Mark G in In the End, the 2022 Twins Never Stood a Chance
I guess my main concern is that out of the 16 players listed, 9 of them are pitchers. And this is not the first year we have had the same problem, maybe not the same number, but the same problem. The FO was brought here because of their past history of producing a pitching pipe line in their previous places, or so I have read, and yet the only pipe line we have seen is a line waiting to get into the trainers room. It has been on going for a while now, going all the way down the organizational line. The worst part, in the opinion of this humble observer, is how many of the injuries have come simply from playing. injuring yourself simply by throwing a pitch, or running the bases, or sliding into bases, etc. We are not being beaned, or are crashing into walls every other game, or even having weird accidents like you read about now and then. We are getting injured just playing. Especially our pitchers. Why? With all the pitch count and innings limits we impose on our prospects, why can't we stay healthy? And we all know about the pitchers we have picked up from without and the injuries with them. What is it about this organization that ends up with this kind of a list way too often? Is it really just bad luck? Really? Or do we need to take a step back and review our approach? I don't have those answers, but we need to find someone who does. And soon, like yesterday.
glunn reacted to Nick Nelson in In the End, the 2022 Twins Never Stood a Chance
As we pick up the pieces on this 2022 Twins season, which looked so promising for so long, there will be plenty of hindsight analysis, parsing of blame. But it's all overshadowed by the ugly elephant in the room: a catastrophic, unrelenting onslaught of injuries.
The reality is that, while this doesn't absolve the coaching staff or front office of any culpability, there was no preparing for this. No team could have survived the almost incomprehensible level of soul-crushing attrition the Twins faced this year.
Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker, USA Today Sports The purpose of this article is try and lay out, in no uncertain terms, the insurmountable magnitude of injuries and medical odysseys to which this year's Twins roster has been subjected. There are worthwhile conversations to be had about the way this team is managing players physically, evaluating new acquisitions, and handling rehab plans. But let's take a step back.
When you acknowledge that, to a large degree, injury rates and recoveries are driven by luck and uncontrollable forces, I don't see much of a case for holding the manager or even the front office primarily accountable for what's gone down this season.
There's no planning for, or adapting, to the way injuries have impacted this roster. There's no managing a bunch of backups and fourth-string options to sustained contention.
I recognize this is very unsatisfying for those who demand accountability and want to see heads roll in the wake of such a disappointing turn of events. But when you remove emotion and try to see the situation objectively, I'm not sure how much more you could expect from the execs and decision makers dealt an unwinnable hand.
Could they have done certain things better? Of course. Was it going to turn the unstoppable tide that has plunged this ship asunder? No.
This side-by-side comparison of the injured lists for Cleveland and Minnesota, here in the heart of the stretch run, kind of says it all. Sixteen Twins players on IL, including several vital cornerstones, compared to three Guardians. How do you realistically overcome that?
Let's review all these injuries that have torpedoed a promising season, and the context behind them. I've tried to order them from most devastating to least.
Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff.
When people talk about the 2022 season and what's gone wrong, I feel like this calamity gets glossed over way too much. To me, it is the '1A' headline for all the team's unmet potential. This horrible twist of fate is what I would categorize as unthinkably disastrous.
Lewis and Kirilloff are two of the most important assets for this franchise. (I ranked them #3 and #4 during the offseason, behind Byron Buxton and Jorge Polanco – also both currently on IL.) They are at the ages and junctures of development where you'd expect them to start making a real impact the major-league level, and both showed that ability in brief flashes this year.
However, both of their seasons were ended in premature fashion. And in BOTH cases, major surgery was required to address the SAME injury that knocked them out for the previous season. (Did I mention this is essentially the third straight lost season for both?)
Kirilloff's wrist surgery from last year didn't take, so now he's undergone a more invasive, last-ditch operation to try and alleviate the debilitating issue. Lewis, during his first game back in what appeared to be a permanent call-up, tore the very same ACL he had reconstructive surgery on last year.
You can't make this stuff up. And what's most crushing about it all is that both of these absolutely critical players will inevitably be shrouded in doubt going forward.
Can Lewis rebound from a second straight surgery on the same knee, especially when his game is founded on agility and foot speed?
Will this somewhat experimental surgery for Kirilloff correct a problem that's been plaguing him for years now, sapping his most elite skill?
Realistically, it's hard to feel much assurance on either front, and for that reason it's hard to feel optimistic about the Twins' immediate future. It really can't be overstated how disruptive these unforeseeable developments are for a front office trying to build a championship.
Tyler Mahle and Chris Paddack.
We all understand that Mahle and Paddack came with known injury risk to varying degrees. At the same time, so do a lot of trades. You've got to believe a club carefully reviews medicals and gains a level of comfort before pulling the trigger on significant deals like these ones. Yeah, it's easy to scream "incompetence" in hindsight. Too easy. There are a lot of top-of-field experts involved in these decisions.
Maybe, taking each player on his own, it shouldn't be all that surprising that Mahle or Paddack succumbed to (likely) season-ending arm injuries.
But for both to do so? And not only that, but for it happen SO quickly in both cases? Paddack made it to his fifth start before his partially torn UCL gave way, requiring elbow surgery. Mahle lasted only three before his velocity nosedived and a mysterious shoulder injury threatened to end his campaign.
A combination of worst-case injury scenarios. Of course. And it really hurts, because the talent evaluation in both cases was sound. I genuinely believe that if healthy these would be the Twins' two best starters. Alas, much like Lewis and Kirilloff, their uncertain futures complicate the front office's planning going forward.
Paddack will be coming back from a second Tommy John surgery. Who knows what's going on with Mahle but it seems impossible we'll go into the offseason feeling confident about his shoulder, with one year of team control left.
Look, we know injuries for Buxton have to be expected and accounted for. They're baked into his legacy, and his new contract. Still, this year the gravity of his durability issues came into sharper focus than ever, primarily because it constitutes a "healthy" season for Buxton.
He's already made the second-most plate appearances of his career. He avoided the injured list until August. He still might get to 100 games!
And yet, that old injury phantom has conspicuously followed Buxton all year, ever since he came up slamming his hand into the dirt at Fenway one week in. Despite his mightiest efforts, he couldn't outrun his eternal tormentor, and now this season is wrapping up like so many before it: Buxton on the sidelines, watching his team fall short.
I guess the point of this blurb is not so much about the micro misfortune of injuries sabotaging another year for Buxton, but more an observation about his appropriateness as face of the franchise:
The Twins to lost their way into drafting one of the most talented, electric, special players in modern baseball history who also happens to be the (?) single-most injury prone at that level.
Ryan Jeffers and Trevor Larnach.
I group these two together because while neither injury was totally unforeseeable – catchers get hurt a lot by nature, and Larnach was also sidelined for much of last year – they definitely qualify as bad luck, and both absences led to huge drop-offs in terms of backup plans.
Jeffers was having a reasonably solid season before suffering a thumb fracture in mid-July, which may cost him his entire second half. Larnach developed a sports hernia requiring surgery in mid-June, and still hasn't made it back yet. In both cases, the path to returning has arduously dragged well beyond original estimates, and continues to do so – another unfortunate commonality.
With Jeffers sidelined, the Twins were left at catcher with the husk of Gary Sánchez and trade acquisition Sandy León, who'd been toiling in the minors for Cleveland. It's been ugly, much like the outfield in the absence of Larnach, Kirilloff and Buxton.
Bailey Ober and Josh Winder.
Winder is no longer on the injured list, but I view him much as the same as Ober: a homegrown talent, 25 years old and coming off a great season, clearly a core part of the Twins pitching plans. Granted, they both had their own warning labels coming into this season, but no clear red flags.
As it turns out, both will end up maxing out around 50 innings pitched in the majors – big setback seasons for developing pitchers who will now be challenged to rebuild their workloads once again. In each case, the injury seems not well understood. Ober went down with a groin injury first framed as minor that never seemed to heal. Winder's had recurring bouts with an impinged, but structurally sound, shoulder dating back to last year.
On their own, these are losses you could withstand, which is why they're relatively low on this list. But combined with all of the above? Getting almost nothing from Ober, or Winder, or Paddack, or their marquee deadline acquisition Mahle? How do you cobble together a decent rotation through all of that?
The only Twins starting pitchers that have truly managed to stay healthy are the guys they signed cheaply to fill the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation.
Jorgé Alcala and Matt Canterino.
These two are lumped as high-upside relievers who could have had transformative impacts on the Twins bullpen, but instead fell victim to essentially worst-case scenarios with their elbows. Alcala missed all of this season; Canterino never made it to the majors and will likely miss all of the next one.
Maybe these blows would've been easier to sustain if some of the relief contingency plans held up. However...
Danny Coulombe, Cody Stashak, and Jhon Romero.
None of these three were projected to be pivotal late-inning weapons, but they were all viewed as important parts of the depth mix. Coulombe and Romero were on the Opening Day roster, and Stashak a late cut. All suffered season-ending injuries early on.
Kenta Maeda and Randy Dobnak.
I have these two at the bottom because, unlike everyone above, no one realistically expected much out of them this year. But it would have been nice to get something, *anything* from either. Both have been derailed so much for both that it's easy to forget that, coming out of the 2020 season, we were envisioning each as key long-term pieces for the pitching staff.
You can look back now and say, "Well the front office shouldn't have been planning around these guys." Or they shouldn't have traded for Paddack or Mahle and the associated risk. Or they shouldn't have committed to Buxton as a centerpiece, or they should have better medical personnel and training philosophies, and so on.
There may be truth to these things. But you bet on players you like, and you accept a certain amount of risk. Otherwise, you end up where the previous front office was for so long, treading water in a pointless middle ground.
At the end of the day, injuries happen. They're never as predictable or controllable or correctable as people want to believe. Sadly, this scourge has been especially prevalent for the Twins and, more sadly, a lot of these health woes are going to carry forward in terms of their implications.
I firmly believe the front office built a team capable of winning the division this year, and Rocco Baldelli was the guy to lead that group. For a while, it was all coming together as planned.
Unfortunately, the current team barely resembles what was built.
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glunn reacted to bean5302 in Brooks Lee's Stock is Already Rising
Lee will finish the year at a universal top 30 prospect. He's already a unanimous top 50. As far as Lee's ceiling, that remains open, but right now, I think Lee could have perennial All Star talent. Maybe who the Twins hoped Austin Martin would become.
glunn reacted to Cody Christie in Brooks Lee's Stock is Already Rising
Minnesota was ecstatic to have Brooks Lee fall to them with the 8th overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft. Now, he's proving that other teams might have been wrong to leave him on the board that long.
Image courtesy of Steve Buhr, Twins Daily
MLB scouting departments have followed Brooks Lee since he was a high schooler in California. As the son of Cal Poly's head coach Larry Lee, he has grown up around baseball. In the 2019 MLB Draft, he fell to the 35th round because teams knew he wanted to play in college for his dad. Unfortunately, the pandemic limited his first college season, and he suffered an injury that required knee and hamstring surgery.
In 2021, Lee returned and showed why he had been a highly ranked high school prospect. He hit .342/.384/.626 (1.010) with 27 doubles, three triples, and ten home runs in 55 games. Lee also showed tremendous control of the strike zone with a 34-to-18 strikeout to walk ratio. He was named the co-Big West Player of the Year at the season's end. After the season, he headed to the Cape Cod League and continued to hit with a 1.099 OPS. This performance helped improve his draft stock because this league utilizes wood bats, and it didn't stop Lee from putting up strong numbers.
It's hard to imagine, but Lee performed better during his junior year, establishing himself as the best college bat in the 2022 draft class. In 58 games, he hit .357/.462/.664 (1.125) with 25 doubles and 15 home runs. Some felt he should be a top-3 pick in the draft, so it was surprising that he fell to the Twins with the eighth overall selection. Another team's loss is Minnesota's gain, as he is already showing his potential in his first professional season.
Minnesota has been aggressive with Lee as the team promoted him to High-A after only four games in rookie ball. Since arriving in Cedar Rapids, he has hit .297/.391/.473 (.863) with four doubles and four home runs. Even as a college draftee, he is over a year younger than the average age of the competition at his level, with over 73% of his at-bats coming against older pitchers. It's a small sample size, but Lee is already showcasing his elite hit tool.
The Twins drafted Lee as a shortstop, but he will likely move to third base as he continues to mature. His arm is considered above average, so that he will play well at the hot corner. So far in his professional career, all his defensive innings have been at shortstop, so the Twins aren't ready to move him yet. Overall, his hit tool will carry him no matter his eventual defensive position.
Many national outlets updated their prospect lists throughout the season, and Lee is in the discussion for Minnesota's top prospect. For instance, MLB.com has Lee ranked as baseball's 33rd best prospect, and that was before his performance at High-A. According to their rankings, Lee is one of three prospects to have a hit grade of 65 or higher, with the potential to reach a 70-hit tool in the future. Lee will likely continue to rise on national prospect lists as other players graduate and he continues to build his professional resume.
How high is Lee's ceiling? Where do you think he will rank on top-100 lists heading into the 2023 season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
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glunn reacted to jkcarew in Could the Twins' Injured Roster Win the AL Central?
In a recent critical game against the White Sox, Chicago played a lineup without Anderson, Robert, Jimenez, and Moncada. It’s not just quantity, it’s quality.
If everyone had been healthy all year, Chicago, Minnesota, Cleveland, 1,2,3. Although, this probably sells short the advantage Cleveland has in the dugout…which is very significant.
glunn reacted to tony&rodney in Could the Twins' Injured Roster Win the AL Central?
Man I so agree with the haphazard roster construction. It was put together with a plan that no player would miss time during the year.
The sweep at Target Field was such an expression of the separation of the two team's philosophies. The Guardians are the youngest team in baseball, had more than half their roster debut this year at the MLB level, and have a top farm system with many skilled athletic players near ready to make the next step if they can only get an opportunity. Oh, and the way the contract with Jose Ramirez was constructed, Cleveland pays him less each of the next four years than he makes this year. Cleveland is flush with players and cash.
Hentges could be the next dynamite starting pitcher for Cleveland.
Will the Twins sweep the Guardians in Cleveland next weekend? Will they sweep the Royals at home before that?
glunn reacted to Fighting4par in Could the Twins' Injured Roster Win the AL Central?
Even though the rogers trade didn't work out great for us. If Paddack comes back next year and the year after and puts up an under 5 E.R.A. Next year our pitching SHOULD be stacked.
glunn reacted to bean5302 in Could the Twins' Injured Roster Win the AL Central?
I think this is an interesting exercise, but it ignores all the cause and effect.
If Maeda wasn't injured, Paddack wouldn't have been acquired.
If Paddack wasn't injured, Mahle wouldn't have been acquired, etc.
If Sano and Kirilloff weren't injured, where would Arraez be playing?
Lewis wasn't about to supplant Correa so where would he be playing? I guess he'd be taking Nick Gordon's role, but then where would Nick Gordon be since Gordon can't be optioned?
glunn reacted to FlyingFinn in Could the Twins' Injured Roster Win the AL Central?
Interesting note - if everyone had stayed healthy, Gordon would have been cut (replaced by Lewis) before he got a chance to play almost every day and show what he can do. Also, Miranda - there probably wouldn't have been room for him, he would stayed with the Saints and he may have been dealt at the trade deadline for pitching, again before we knew he could or couldn't handle MLB pitching. Right now, those are 2 of our best 4 hitters.
glunn reacted to tony&rodney in Could the Twins' Injured Roster Win the AL Central?
The injured roster isn't going to win any games because they cannot make it on to the field.
The team has performed admirably at times. I think I predicted 79-85 wins just before the season began. When a team fails to plan thoroughly in the offseason there are consequences.
My main concern in the last 3-4 years with the Twins (including when they win) is the number of mental errors. The number of mistakes due to a lack of fundamentals is actually pretty glaring: throwing to the wrong base; not backing up every play; missing the cutoff or failing to have a cutoff; not reading wild pitches to advance; failing to advance a runner; getting doubled off on clear line drive outs; failing to score from second base with two outs on a single to the outfield; and more. Physical errors will happen as will the occasional mental mishap, but the shear number of fundamental problems are something that can and should be reduced through an emphasis on playing basic baseball.
glunn reacted to ashbury in Could the Twins' Injured Roster Win the AL Central?
As this roster was being constructed starting last November, half the names on the list given were known injury risks (or in the case of Maeda were already shelved for at least the first part of the season). The Front Office is getting no sympathy from me, not even patience, if they are moaning "oh, the injury bug!" Some injuries to unexpected players are an inevitable part of baseball, but this roster was constructed to court injury.
glunn reacted to stringer bell in Could the Twins' Injured Roster Win the AL Central?
There isn’t enough left to win enough games.
glunn reacted to Seth Stohs in Could the Twins' Injured Roster Win the AL Central?
I think the bigger point here is multi-parts.
1.) The Twins have a dozen players on a 26 (now 28) man roster that would normally not be.
2.) The White Sox have had guys missing too, and so have Cleveland, but not this quantity, and not always at the same time.
3.) Maybe even more important, it would be really great to be getting guys like Jeffers, Kirilloff, Larnach and Lewis more development time in the big leagues, and playing in a pennant race. That's important short and long term.
4.) There's just never enough pitching to overcome 5+ starters missing so much time.
5.) This doesn't even account for the amount of time that guys like Buxton, Polanco, Kepler and others played when they maybe should have been on the IL.
6.) As mentioned by someone above, this was a team predicted to finish around .500 with health. I think it's impressive they're still at .500 right now.
glunn reacted to mikelink45 in Could the Twins' Injured Roster Win the AL Central?
This is an exercise that has only one dimension - The White Sox have lost considerable time with Luis Roberts and Tim Anderson - both vital clogs. Gandal has had back problems. Crochet is a big loss in pitching as is Crick and Stiever. Who has the biggest losses? I don't know.
This is certainly an impressive list and has hurt the Twins chances. Could they win? Fun to speculate.
glunn reacted to dogsday in Could the Twins' Injured Roster Win the AL Central?
I think a balanced perspective is helpful. The Twins were projected to be a +/- .500 team this year. The team on the field now has maybe 50% of the players that projection was based on with Buxton, Polanco, Jeffers, Kirilloff, Ober, Alcala, Winder et al out.
A Twins ownership that spent like the Dodgers or Yankees might have another 4-5 impactful players on the roster (assuming no other teams also upped their spending.) But that is extremely unlikely to happen. So scouting, development and exploitation of market inefficiencies (Moneyball) remain key to a competitive Twins team.
One glaring market inefficiency that should be possible to address is player conditioning. Baseball puts incredible repetitive stresses on the body (pitching and hitting) as well as running stresses. A team that developed a training regimen that kept players healthy and on the field would benefit enormously. (And it would probably be cheaper to implement than the cost of a decent relief pitcher.) To their credit the Twins have been trying a regimen that involves regular days off. But, that doesn’t seem to be an effective answer to avoiding IL stints.
Cleveland has been cited as a model for developing good pitching. (Hence Falvey.) Among the pitchers Cleveland gets credit for developing: Kluber was drafted by San Diego. Bauer and Carrasco had been identified as potential high end pitchers before they were drafted (by Arizona and Philadelphia respectively). Clevinger was drafted by the Angels. Bieber and McKenzie were both drafted by Cleveland.
So identifying pitchers who can be developed, and acquiring and developing them seems to be a key skill. (But, it’s not just about drafting.)
The current Twins regime seems fair but not great at identifying and developing pitching (Jax, Duran, Ryan). If any of Ober, Winder, Balazovic, Varland, Canterino, SWR, etc. turn into above average major league pitchers that assessment could change. But for the present? An awful lot of question marks.
Can the Twins win the division. Sure. Will they? Most likely not this year. So, next year? The potential is there, but….
glunn reacted to Cody Christie in Could the Twins' Injured Roster Win the AL Central?
Few MLB teams have been bitten by the injury bug like the Twins this season. Could Minnesota win the AL Central with the players currently on the injured list?
Image courtesy of Jim Cowsert-USA TODAY Sports Minnesota's injury list has continued to fill up with players up and down the roster. No AL team has put more players on the injured list than the Twins, making it tough to evaluate the team's overall talent value. Looking back on the 2022 season, it will be easy to point to all the team's injuries as one of the reasons for its downfall. That being said, the AL Central is still up for grabs, so could the Twins' injured players win the division?
Catcher: Ryan Jeffers
Jeffers was supposed to take over the full-time catching duties this season after the team traded Mitch Garver. Before fracturing his thumb, he saw his OPS+ rise eight points compared to 2021. He also does a great job behind the plate as his framing ranks in the 65th percentile.
1B: Miguel Sano
There's no question that Sano struggled during the 2022 season, but this is a player that averaged a 122 OPS+ over the last three seasons. He's been streaky throughout his career, which doesn't help how fans view him. His Twins tenure is likely done, but he was a solid contributor during that time.
2B: Jorge Polanco
Polanco had avoided the injured list for much of his career until the 2022 season. He's played through injuries in the past and been relatively productive. This season the injuries were clearly bothering him at the plate, and his defensive numbers took a significant drop. Even with injuries, his WAR ranks in the team's top 5.
3B: No Current Injury <Knock on Wood>
Minnesota doesn't have a current injured third baseman, but this position can be filled with an infielder from St. Paul. Andrew Bechtold seems like a possible fit since he can be a replacement-level player and has played third base during the 2022 season.
SS: Royce Lewis
It's hard not to think about what Lewis might have meant to the 2022 Twins if he had stayed healthy. His first taste of the big leagues was spectacular as he went 12-for-40 (.300) with four doubles and two home runs. Lewis looked like a star, and the Twins could desperately use a right-handed power bat for the stretch run.
OF: Byron Buxton, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach
Minnesota expected all three players to fit into the middle of the lineup this season. Buxton avoided the injured list for much of the season, but now he hasn't been available for the team's stretch run. Kirilloff put together some eye-popping numbers at Triple-A as he returned from injury. Unfortunately, something was still wrong with his wrist, and he underwent a unique surgery to alleviate some of the pain. Larnach had a 105 OPS+ in 2022, and the team has been forced to use replacement-level players to fill in for his production.
Rotation: Tyler Mahle, Chris Paddack, Kenta Maeda, Bailey Ober, Randy Dobnak
The top three pitchers in the injured rotation have been acquired by the current front office in trades. Now it seems unlikely that any of the three will be available for Minnesota's stretch run. Ober and Dobnak have started their rehab assignments, but it's questionable how much they will be able to provide the club for the season's remainder. Josh Winder is also another name to consider as he is no longer rehabbing but he is getting back to strength in the Saints rotation. Adding him to this rotation allows Dobnak to be a long-man out of the bullpen.
Bullpen: Jorge Alcala, Danny Coulombe, Jhon Romero, Cole Sands, Cody Stashak
Minnesota's bullpen has been a mess, so it's intriguing to consider what these missing players may have been able to provide the team. Alcala has the make-up to be an elite reliever and had the potential to take over a late-inning role in 2022. Stashak and Sands can fit into this team's imaginary set-up roles. Not much was expected from Coulombe and Romero, but relievers can surprise in small sample sizes.
Cleveland and Chicago have flaws, and the Twins roster above might be good enough to compete in the AL Central. Do you think they'd have enough pieces to compete in the division? Is the Twins injured roster better than their current roster? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
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glunn reacted to mrtwinsfan in Game Thread Guardians 9/11/22 1:10
Been a fun year only in that the Team kept us in it till Labor day, which compared to last year we were out of it on Memorial day, Twins need more than a couple players, Need a new Direction on Fundamentals, Speed and Common sense baseball, Yes injuries are part of it , but please make some Changes, Roccos 2019 just wait for Home runs does not work anymore and he seems to not be able to adjust, will always have Hope, But Reality is REAL !!!