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glunn

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  1. Like
    glunn reacted to Karbo in State of the Twins Farm System - 6 Years Into Falvey's Reign.   
    As I remember, most of Cleveland's pitching staff was actually acquired via trades when they were in the lower minors. I could be wrong but that's how I remember. It's still up to the FO to recognize the talent in those trades, and develop it up the line to the majors. That ,as of yet, hasn't been successful under the current FO for the Twins. They so far have been fairly successful drafting hitters IMO.
  2. Like
    glunn reacted to Dman in State of the Twins Farm System - 6 Years Into Falvey's Reign.   
    You forgot a few big names like Rodriguez and Jullien and they just traded Steer, CES and two good left handed pitchers which would have changed this list considerably.  To your point I don't think they have built a top 10 Farm since they have been here mainly because top picks like Rooker, Sabato and Cavaco didn't work out well and they missed on the international FA like Javier and others. 
    I think the larger point to make is that they haven't really produced much for starting pitchers which is what they were brought in to do.  Cleveland has continued to be far more successful than Falvine on the pitching side but then again they have taken risks taking pitchers early and late in several drafts.  While the Twins drafts have been balanced they just haven't found enough viable arms.  Things looked like maybe they were going to turn this year and with Ryan, Ober Winder set to play key roles things were looking better for the FO but Ober doesn't look like he will ever make it a full season as a starter and given Winders shoulder it doesn't look good for him either.  Everyone else has pretty much imploded on the farm.  Things could change next year for Balazovich, Henriquez, Canterino, Sands, Enlow but it doesn't look good at this point.  Losing Povich and Hajjar leaves the only potential fast mover as Prielipp from this years draft and we don't really know how durable he will end up being either.
    This team is going to be in a tough spot if they can't draft and develop more guys like Joe Ryan.  Constantly trading away your farm for 1.5 years of a pitcher is not a great strategy moving forward.  Not sure how they are going to get out of this mess but hopefully this years draft is a really good one and they need to replenish the pitching pipeline next year or there won't be much of one.
    I still like this FO for the most part but if they want to keep their jobs long term I think they are going to have to do better than they have been.
  3. Like
    glunn reacted to bean5302 in State of the Twins Farm System - 6 Years Into Falvey's Reign.   
    I'm curious, which Falvey drafted and developed hitters were parlayed into pitchers? Pitcher Steve Hajjar and hitters Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand were part of the Mahle trade just now, but I think that's literally about it.

    Kenta Maeda was for pitcher Brusdar Graterol (Terry Ryan)
    Chris Paddack was for pitcher Taylor Rogers (Bill Smith)
    Sonny Gray was for pitcher Chase Petty (Derek Falvey)
    Michael Fulmer was for pitcher Sawyer Gipson-Long (Derek Falvey)
    Jorge Lopez was for pitchers Cade Povich (Derek Falvey) Yennier Cano (Terry Ryan), and 2 other pitchers.
    Hitter Austin Martin and pitcher SWR were acquired for the best starter the Twins had developed in 15 years, Jose Berrios (Terry Ryan).

    Nelson Cruz was flipped for Joe Ryan, but Cruz was a free agent signing and it would have been quite the gamble to predict he would play as well as he did. Big kudos to Falvey for finding that deal, it was great, but it hardly involved his front office doing what they were paid to do.

    Free agency is part of the job, but not the big part which Derek Falvey was hired to address in my opinion. He was hired to build a sustainable farm system through drafting and development, especially of pitchers.
     
  4. Like
    glunn reacted to bean5302 in State of the Twins Farm System - 6 Years Into Falvey's Reign.   
    The farm system Derek Falvey inherited had graduated Sano, Polanco, Berrios, Rosario, Kepler and Buxton in the previous 2 years.

    Compared to what? Gordon (Terry Ryan), Arraez (Terry Ryan), Miranda (Terry Ryan), Larnach, Jeffers, Winder, Ober.

    Falvey's farm system is pretty empty and he's living off the previous regime's draft picks. Larnach has nearly 500 plate appearances with a wRC+ of 93 and iffy defense at the corner outfield position. Jeffers looks to be a solid backup catcher or maybe an adequate starter. Ober was a late round pick because of injuries and those have followed him throughout his career. Winder has been rebuilt with new mechanics which added massive velocity is seems his shoulder can't handle. Both Ober and Winder look destined for bullpen roles due to durability and neither was a highly rated prospect early on.

    I'm curious, what stud Twins players are being under-appreciated due to injury right now?
  5. Like
    glunn reacted to bird in State of the Twins Farm System - 6 Years Into Falvey's Reign.   
    The last few comments have been insightful, and seem to share a view that perhaps things are better if we take a harder and more nuanced look at things. My belief is that one cannot make a proper assessment of the quality of the draft and development process without taking a combined look at the MLB and MiLB talent. Three primary reasons: 1) recent graduations making contributions to the big club; 2) Acquisitions to the club using the MilB talent; and 3) paying consideration to the injury situation.
    I'm a huge believer in maintaining some "talent balance" between one's MLB and MiLB talent pools. Why? Because I believe the ONLY way, these days, to outflank the competiton on a sustainable basis is to trade a lot, to trade surpluses to solve shortfalls, and to "win" those trades fairly consistently. Personally, I like to look at "rankings", for example ESPN's Power Rankings for MLB, or systems rankings from Fangraphs and Keith Law (not MLB please). My conviction is that if either ranking falls below the median on a consistent (3 years?) basis, you're gonna be in deep doo doo. Things need to have some cyclicality, in that sometimes, you're trading surplus capital from MiLB to augment MLB, and sometimes the opposite, and if you have good quality in both, you can do some of each. An example from this trade deadline  is that Fangraphs viewed the Twins as having the second best results in terms of "improving their postseason chances, and they did that without losing a singlr prospect with a FV of more than 40+. CWS, by contrast, did nothing. Why? Because they HAVE nothing to trade in their MiLB system. They have a total of seven (7!) prospects with a 40+ FV or better, and none above 45+.
    Two last points. To make a fair assessment, we need to look at things relative to other organizations (I use the AL Central because , well...) And we have to account for advantages in the draft order over whatever period we're studying. The pundits are biased in favor of future all-star types when they grade farm systems. They greatly underrate depth. So far in 2022, other contending teams in the AL Central have had three or four members of their rotations give them 19 starts or more. The Twins have zero, and the Twins starters with the most starts are Bundy and Archer. So why are they still leading the division? Greater depth. In every day players (Cave, Contreras, Palacios, Beckham), in Injury replacement starters (Smeltzer, Winder, Sands, Sanchez), and even RP's (Megill, Cotton, Cano, Moran)< to name just a few examples. Detroit, Chicago, and even Cleveland cannot match this.
    Sorry for the length. In summary, I think the system is in better shape than most people think.
  6. Like
    glunn reacted to bean5302 in State of the Twins Farm System - 6 Years Into Falvey's Reign.   
    How many playoff victories and World Series appearances do the Twins have under Falvey? If you want to give him a pass for failing to improve the farm system while "adjusting and responding" to the competitive needs of the team, he'd need to show achievements higher than the Twins have seen in the past 20 years. 

    I'd be the first to forgive the state of the farm system if the Twins had some playoff victories or a World Series appearance recently. In fact, the Twins might make that happen this year so it's not like the book is closed or something. I applaud Falvey for recognizing the state of the farm system and finding a way to bring in the talent to plug holes the Twins needed to address to become a legitimate playoff caliber team this year. But there need to be results along with the adjustments.
  7. Like
    glunn reacted to TwinsDr2021 in State of the Twins Farm System - 6 Years Into Falvey's Reign.   
    I think this FO has done a really good job of finding prospects that make the majors or look like a for sure thing to make the majors, which is great for using those players to fill needs on the major league roster. What they have lacked it seems is the future all star type talent. This FO inherited all stars and silver sluggers all over the diamond, what they didn't inherit besides Berrios and maybe Gibson was starting pitchers. Again for the most part this FO has used minor league players to supplement that with some good trades and thus have kept this pretty competitive the whole time they have been here. What I hoped was that by now the 17, 18 and 19 draft would have produced more or maybe higher quality by now (yes Jeffers, Larnach, Winder and others have shown some promise, I get the high school kids would be still pretty young, but the college kids are getting old fast),
  8. Like
    glunn reacted to tarheeltwinsfan in State of the Twins Farm System - 6 Years Into Falvey's Reign.   
    If you add Brooks Lee and Connor Prielipp, things look better. You also must factor the order in which the Twins drafted. After a good season, the draft order is much lower, which usually means less talent in the overall draft that year. 
  9. Like
    glunn reacted to LA VIkes Fan in State of the Twins Farm System - 6 Years Into Falvey's Reign.   
    I do think there's something missing from this analysis that may change the conclusion. As fans, we have to rely published evaluations of minor league players. The far better evaluation tool is to look at what other teams will give up to get your minor league players. It's kind of like real estate, you can find valuations of your house all over the Internet but the real valuation is what someone will give you for that house.
    Here, I think the last trade deadline shows that the FO has done a good job drafting and restocking the farm system. We were able to trade 9 minor league players for a number 2 or 3 starter and a high and closer who both have significant control remaining, and a very good rental set up man. To me, that's the market saying to the Twins that "you have good minor league players". By contrast, there were several other teams looking to upgrade by trading prospects who couldn't do so because other teams did not highly value their prospects. I believe that a majority if not all of the prospects traded were drafted by this Front Office. All of that happened without trading some other guys drafted by this Front Office who potentially could have garnered even higher returns because they were so good as to be untouchable (Miranda), or were injured and/or untouchable (Larnach, Kirilloff, Lewis).,
    Farm systems exist for 2 reasons, not just one. The 1st is of course to provide a steady stream of low cost players to the major league club. The 2nd and almost as important reason is to provide resources so that when you are in an open intention window you can make trades for establish major leaguers without giving established major leaguers back in return. 
    I think when you look at the totality of circumstances to me the more fair conclusion is that this Front Office has done a solid to very good job drafting the last 3 or 4 years and was able to turn those solid to very good drafts into established major league players. I think that shows a good organizational approach. We reaped the benefits of that approach at this year's deadline. 
  10. Like
    glunn got a reaction from Doctor Gast in Risk vs Reward   
    I agree that there is a lot of potential trade value if the Twins are far from contending before the trade deadline.
  11. Like
    glunn reacted to ashbury in Risk vs Reward   
    There could be some trade value to be had, but weighed against the very negative reaction to waving the white flag again.  I bet season ticket sales have zoomed in the last week due to this signing, but in future years an exactly equivalent signing could be met with relative yawns.  I think a deadline deal would be quite risky for the long-term.
  12. Like
    glunn got a reaction from ashbury in Risk vs Reward   
    I agree that there is a lot of potential trade value if the Twins are far from contending before the trade deadline.
  13. Like
    glunn reacted to ashbury in Risk vs Reward   
    I have less confidence in there being huge trade value.  Whoever trades for him will need to consider the same aspects of the contract - to reap full value of giving up assets to get him, they'll need to be ready to give him a contract extension that he finds favorable, and maybe they would be better served to just wait until the off-season and offer him that contract when he opts out from Minnesota.  If they just want him for however long he's willing to play without opting out, the same considerations I laid out probably apply, except that the maximum reward for the remainder of the season is probably down around 3 WAR if he performs at an MVP level, and the maximum risk of the remaining $70.2M remains unchanged.  If he were totally a free agent in the offseason, you might get something in return similar to what we got for two months of Nelson Cruz, but I think the contract risk (of a massive injury during those two months) lowers the value in trade.
    Good thought, though.
  14. Like
    glunn got a reaction from In My La Z boy in Risk vs Reward   
    I agree that there is a lot of potential trade value if the Twins are far from contending before the trade deadline.
  15. Like
    glunn reacted to In My La Z boy in Risk vs Reward   
    I am interested in the limited no trade he has for 2022. Say Correa is fantastic, but we stink - seems we stand to gain a major haul for him at the trade deadline. Heaven forbid we have a first 3 months like we did last year, but we did just swerve into perhaps the greatest trade chip in baseball in case we do. 
  16. Like
    glunn reacted to The Mad King in Risk vs Reward   
    I'm gonna guess the twins have some sort of insurance on players that would cover them in the event of comet strike. Or even blown out knee. 
    For me, the risk is that we find out during the course of the year that neither Lewis or Martin is capable of becoming the heir apparent, Correa bolts, and they didn't address it at the trading deadline...
    I'll take your word on ask the WAR calculations!
  17. Like
    glunn reacted to bean5302 in Competitive Balance Tax Wobbly Floor   
    The $100MM floor is to eliminate the tank/rebuild cycle. Tank/rebuild is viable method for teams, but it's not viable for the sport as a whole. $100MM is not too much for what MLB considers to be the minimal viable market and the floor would be used to push new stadiums, new ownership or moving franchises like Pittsburgh, Oakland and Tampa Bay. Not to mention the teams who do not engage in the tank/rebuild method are sick and tired of financing the teams who do run unacceptably low payrolls. 
    The AL Central is as small market as it gets overall. Here are the max opening day payrolls by team.
    Detroit = $200MM (2017) Kansas City = $143MM (2017) Cleveland = $135MM (2018) Chicago = $129MM (2021) Minnesota = $129MM (2018)
  18. Like
    glunn reacted to Original_JB in Competitive Balance Tax Wobbly Floor   
    Why not go with a 4 year 'rolling average' type floor.  That gives teams time/room to build for the 'windows' method many teams feel they must use.
  19. Like
    glunn reacted to Greglw3 in OOTP: Acting aggressively to rebuild Twins   
    Yes, I’m going to try to play some of the games with myself managing the Twins and then maybe a combo of simulation and me managing the Twins for the rest.
    The cool thing is the minor league games always get simulated so you can know which player is ready to help the major league team.
    When I got the game, it was set up to play the 2021 season, so I made some of the trades and simulated 2021 based on real life 2021 stats. What was cool was that the offense was really strong. Miranda hit around .285 with 14 HR and 82 RBIs, not bad for a rookie! Iglesias hit ~.303 with 11 HR, a pleasant surprise. The Twins finished 85-77 and then I made the Bryant, Rodon, Cueto acquisitions after.
    Now I’m set up to play the opener of the 2022 season with the roster I was able to put together.
  20. Like
    glunn got a reaction from Greglw3 in Danny Duffy for the Twins.   
    Hopefully they can be negotiating trades during the lockout, then pull the trigger when the lockout ends.
  21. Like
    glunn got a reaction from Doctor Gast in Danny Duffy for the Twins.   
    Hopefully they can be negotiating trades during the lockout, then pull the trigger when the lockout ends.
  22. Like
    glunn got a reaction from Mark G in Danny Duffy for the Twins.   
    Hopefully they can be negotiating trades during the lockout, then pull the trigger when the lockout ends.
  23. Like
    glunn reacted to Mark G in Danny Duffy for the Twins.   
    Wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see the Twins do exactly what you are advocating.  It is what they did with Pineda; signed him to two years knowing he wouldn't pitch right away and wanting the 2nd year to be good.  This is exactly the type of pitcher the Twins have been picking up for awhile now.  I can see them signing Duffy, Pineda, and maybe one other short termer and calling it an off season.  A trade is looking less and less likely, unless this lockout ends soon.  
  24. Like
    glunn reacted to the_neds in Jorge Polanco and The Twins   
    I have three people on my Please Do Not Trade list. Polanco is one (the others being Byron Buxton and Mitch Garver). We absolutely cannot afford to lose him at 2B. I love Arraez as much as the next Twins fan, but he's not a defensive superstar. He's a soft-contact, high OBP hitter. We shouldn't be so focused on pitching that we also trade away all our defensive and offensive strength. Polanco was our strongest asset in the infield this year by a healthy margin, and if they do consider a trade, they're going to want a big, big return. 
  25. Like
    glunn reacted to Wax off in Jorge Polanco and The Twins   
    I was hoping we might sign one of those shortstops but looking at those price tags, I've lost hope. Just give Buxton an extension instead.
    This article has changed my mind on Polanco. Now I think we should move him back to SS, instead of trading him or keeping him at 2B. Not ideal, but we have no SS for next year or maybe even the next few depending on how Lewis pans out. But we do have Arraez, Gordon, Martin, Miranda, Lewis as options at 2B.
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