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jorgenswest

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  1. Like
    jorgenswest got a reaction from tarheeltwinsfan in Ranking the Top Free Agent Shortstop Options   
    I would put money into a top 2 starter and Buxton.
    Shortstop is a demanding position and unless they are elite like Simmons or Crawford they are often below average defenders in their late 20s. In this list there is only one player with a positive OOA at SS in Correa. Story and Seager ranked 27th and 28th of 36 qualified. Baez was 20th. The three will probably need to move the position before their contract expires. Maybe long before. Semien has already moved off and justifiably so.
    in 2020 Polanco ranked above Semien, Seager and Story. They already have Polanco at 2B and Donaldson/Arraez at 3B. There is no space for movement.
    My fear is that they will wait out the market and Story will be the last remaining, They will end up overpaying for a player whose best days at SS are well behind him bringing a bat that has been boosted by a .972 career OPS at home vs. .752 on the road,
    Unless they want to go after Correa I don’t think any of the others are a real upgrade over Polanco.
  2. Like
    jorgenswest got a reaction from Doctor Gast in Adalberto Mondesi   
    Seems like a good trade target. The Royals may have some motivation as his salary ticks up in arbitration. The Royals will want young players in return. Would you give up Strotman and Celestino for two years of Mondesi? Would it be enough? BTV doesn’t think so but the value will change depending on his arb award.
     
  3. Like
    jorgenswest got a reaction from mikelink45 in Ranking the Top Free Agent Shortstop Options   
    I would put money into a top 2 starter and Buxton.
    Shortstop is a demanding position and unless they are elite like Simmons or Crawford they are often below average defenders in their late 20s. In this list there is only one player with a positive OOA at SS in Correa. Story and Seager ranked 27th and 28th of 36 qualified. Baez was 20th. The three will probably need to move the position before their contract expires. Maybe long before. Semien has already moved off and justifiably so.
    in 2020 Polanco ranked above Semien, Seager and Story. They already have Polanco at 2B and Donaldson/Arraez at 3B. There is no space for movement.
    My fear is that they will wait out the market and Story will be the last remaining, They will end up overpaying for a player whose best days at SS are well behind him bringing a bat that has been boosted by a .972 career OPS at home vs. .752 on the road,
    Unless they want to go after Correa I don’t think any of the others are a real upgrade over Polanco.
  4. Like
    jorgenswest got a reaction from Doctor Gast in Ranking the Top Free Agent Shortstop Options   
    I would put money into a top 2 starter and Buxton.
    Shortstop is a demanding position and unless they are elite like Simmons or Crawford they are often below average defenders in their late 20s. In this list there is only one player with a positive OOA at SS in Correa. Story and Seager ranked 27th and 28th of 36 qualified. Baez was 20th. The three will probably need to move the position before their contract expires. Maybe long before. Semien has already moved off and justifiably so.
    in 2020 Polanco ranked above Semien, Seager and Story. They already have Polanco at 2B and Donaldson/Arraez at 3B. There is no space for movement.
    My fear is that they will wait out the market and Story will be the last remaining, They will end up overpaying for a player whose best days at SS are well behind him bringing a bat that has been boosted by a .972 career OPS at home vs. .752 on the road,
    Unless they want to go after Correa I don’t think any of the others are a real upgrade over Polanco.
  5. Like
    jorgenswest got a reaction from TopGunn#22 in Adalberto Mondesi   
    Seems like a good trade target. The Royals may have some motivation as his salary ticks up in arbitration. The Royals will want young players in return. Would you give up Strotman and Celestino for two years of Mondesi? Would it be enough? BTV doesn’t think so but the value will change depending on his arb award.
     
  6. Like
    jorgenswest got a reaction from wabene in So, the Yankees tried to acquire Simmons at the deadline   
    His defense in front of inexperienced pitching was the reason he played the last two months. He is a far better glove at SS than anyone else on the roster and based on OOA he was among the best in the league.
    I don’t think it is an obvious choice to take the salary relief and play Gordon or Polanco. If the top priority was developing pitchers then defense does matter. 
  7. Like
    jorgenswest got a reaction from Mark G in So, the Yankees tried to acquire Simmons at the deadline   
    His defense in front of inexperienced pitching was the reason he played the last two months. He is a far better glove at SS than anyone else on the roster and based on OOA he was among the best in the league.
    I don’t think it is an obvious choice to take the salary relief and play Gordon or Polanco. If the top priority was developing pitchers then defense does matter. 
  8. Like
    jorgenswest got a reaction from Sconnie in Making Sense of the Edwar Colina Decision   
    It don’t see it as a Cave or Colina question. I assume they have some plan on number of healthy pitchers they project on the 40. If he is healthy it is really a question of Colina and the pitchers on the edge of the 40 whether that is Smeltzer or Thorpe or a waiver claim. If he isn’t projected to be healthy I get it. They have a few other injured pitchers they are carrying and he really hasn’t pitched since 2019 with the option clock started. 
    Does this point to their intention to contend? A rebuilding team might keep a Colina and the upside. A team planning to contend needs to optimize those 40 man spots for players that contribute now.
  9. Like
    jorgenswest got a reaction from chpettit19 in So, the Yankees tried to acquire Simmons at the deadline   
    His defense in front of inexperienced pitching was the reason he played the last two months. He is a far better glove at SS than anyone else on the roster and based on OOA he was among the best in the league.
    I don’t think it is an obvious choice to take the salary relief and play Gordon or Polanco. If the top priority was developing pitchers then defense does matter. 
  10. Like
    jorgenswest got a reaction from Squirrel in So, the Yankees tried to acquire Simmons at the deadline   
    His defense in front of inexperienced pitching was the reason he played the last two months. He is a far better glove at SS than anyone else on the roster and based on OOA he was among the best in the league.
    I don’t think it is an obvious choice to take the salary relief and play Gordon or Polanco. If the top priority was developing pitchers then defense does matter. 
  11. Like
    jorgenswest got a reaction from Shaitan in Ticking Time on The Doof   
    I wouldn’t sign him to an extension. Pay him next year and move on. They don’t need to pay for the decline.
  12. Like
    jorgenswest got a reaction from Vanimal46 in Ticking Time on The Doof   
    I wouldn’t sign him to an extension. Pay him next year and move on. They don’t need to pay for the decline.
  13. Like
    jorgenswest got a reaction from milkytoast in Ticking Time on The Doof   
    I wouldn’t sign him to an extension. Pay him next year and move on. They don’t need to pay for the decline.
  14. Like
    jorgenswest got a reaction from USAFChief in Basking in Buxton’s Season   
    I am thankful they have him next season. Good move a few years back to protect his service time in a season where he had an OPS+ of 5. For comparison Simmons has an OPS+ of 58 this year. 
    He will sign if they pay up.
  15. Like
    jorgenswest got a reaction from Sconnie in Ticking Time on The Doof   
    I wouldn’t sign him to an extension. Pay him next year and move on. They don’t need to pay for the decline.
  16. Like
    jorgenswest got a reaction from wabene in Basking in Buxton’s Season   
    I am thankful they have him next season. Good move a few years back to protect his service time in a season where he had an OPS+ of 5. For comparison Simmons has an OPS+ of 58 this year. 
    He will sign if they pay up.
  17. Like
    jorgenswest reacted to USAFChief in Basking in Buxton’s Season   
    There is nothing the front office can do this offseason more important than getting Buxton under contract.
     
    Whatever it takes. Pay the man. It's criminal it has gone this long. 
  18. Like
    jorgenswest got a reaction from chpettit19 in End of the Line for Brent Rooker?   
    I don’t see how he would have any trade value. There will several fringe 40 man roster players available. I suppose a trade like the Wade deal is possible. I fear saying that because this is not a thread about Wade and some might derail it. The kind of return would be similar is my point.
  19. Like
    jorgenswest got a reaction from Otwins in End of the Line for Brent Rooker?   
    I don’t see how he would have any trade value. There will several fringe 40 man roster players available. I suppose a trade like the Wade deal is possible. I fear saying that because this is not a thread about Wade and some might derail it. The kind of return would be similar is my point.
  20. Like
    jorgenswest got a reaction from ashbury in Who Survives the Twins Pen Shakeup?   
    Relievers can be hard to trade in the off season because there is often a good supply a free agent relievers. Why trade prospects for Rogers when you can pay a few million more and get a similar reliever without hitting your farm system? Teams would have to wait until the reliever market is exhausted before trading.
    This off-season is different though. After Kenley Jansen there aren’t any relievers as reliable as Rogers. Kimbrel might be non-tendered but the supply of closers is small. Rogers will have trade value. With the limited supply the Twins won’t be able to replace him with another free agent. That supply thing is a double edged sword.
  21. Like
    jorgenswest got a reaction from wabene in Clutch Gordon, Baseball Superstar   
    Simmons is among the elite defenders this year according to outs above average. I think that defense at a key position is beneficial to young pitchers and their development. Nothing else is more important for this team. Certainly not the development of a utility player.
    Gordon has also progressed into what looks like a reliable bench piece. I don’t know what he was doing on those frequent days where he didn’t get in the game but he must have been working hard in the cage as well as learning the OF. This seems like a small success story to me.
  22. Like
    jorgenswest got a reaction from yeahyabetcha in End of the Line for Brent Rooker?   
    I don’t see how he would have any trade value. There will several fringe 40 man roster players available. I suppose a trade like the Wade deal is possible. I fear saying that because this is not a thread about Wade and some might derail it. The kind of return would be similar is my point.
  23. WTF
    jorgenswest got a reaction from RpR in 4 Concerns with Josh Donaldson’s Off-Season Trade Value   
    When you sign an aging veteran to a four year deal you count on the bulk of that value to be in the first two years. He has performed as expected the first two years with a 125 OPS+ and starting 137 of 208 games.
    I would expect both those numbers will drop in the next two years. He is still a good player but relative to his contract likely a negative value. Those contracts are hard to trade in the off-season when there is also a supply of players in free agency,
    In two years that money will free up and the Twins can take another shot at a big free agent commitment
  24. Like
    jorgenswest got a reaction from woolywoolhouse in The Twins Shouldn't Spend (Much) On Starting Pitching This Offseason   
    The Twins have proved false the often stated “There is no such thing as a bad one year contract”.
    The practice of signing stop gap pitchers to the rotation or late inning relief needs to stop. That gap only becomes wider the next year and the decline phase pitchers often found in one year deals are not guaranteed gap fillers.
    This doesn’t mean do nothing. They need to sign a free agent pitcher to a long term contract for the top of their rotation. They can make trades as they did for Odorizzi and Maeda. Instead of signing the Happ’s and Shoemaker’s they need to be better than every other team at identifying pitchers that have failed elsewhere and find that upside.
    They also need to invest innings into their own young pitching. If they can’t develop their own under control pitching they can not sustain success.
     
  25. Like
    jorgenswest got a reaction from Dman in Game Score: Minnesota 5, Cleveland 2   
    I think we have been given the answer. We might not agree with the Twins approach but Ober has thrown more innings this season than any of his previous professional season. They are limiting his remaining workload both within games and days of rest between starts.
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