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jorgenswest

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  1. Like
    jorgenswest got a reaction from Otto von Ballpark in Can Someone Find Tyler Duffey?   
    Duffey will be 31 in December. This might simply be decline. The decline can be sudden for relievers. They often have one really effective pitch and when they lose a little on that pitch they don’t have anything else to fall back on.
  2. Like
    jorgenswest got a reaction from dbminn in Should we trade or shouldn't we?   
    Thanks for the post. It does have me thinking about it.
    I think there are two key factors here that somehow need to be measured.
     
    1) The number of years of control. The value of that player shouldn’t be calculated beyond those years.
     
    2) The salary cost of that control. A 2 WAR player on a pre-ARB contract is a valuable asset for a team. That same 2 WAR player in year two or three of arbitration and earning 10 times the pre ARB salary is a marginal asset.
     
    One great deal was sending Liriano and his two months of control to the White Sox and getting all of Escobar’s control at a very low cost in his pre arb and arb seasons.
  3. Like
    jorgenswest got a reaction from mikelink45 in Should we trade or shouldn't we?   
    Thanks for the post. It does have me thinking about it.
    I think there are two key factors here that somehow need to be measured.
     
    1) The number of years of control. The value of that player shouldn’t be calculated beyond those years.
     
    2) The salary cost of that control. A 2 WAR player on a pre-ARB contract is a valuable asset for a team. That same 2 WAR player in year two or three of arbitration and earning 10 times the pre ARB salary is a marginal asset.
     
    One great deal was sending Liriano and his two months of control to the White Sox and getting all of Escobar’s control at a very low cost in his pre arb and arb seasons.
  4. Like
    jorgenswest got a reaction from mikelink45 in My prediction for the new 29 man roster   
    I wonder If more starters are needed. They may need to stack starters early as they lengthen outings, I would have Thorpe and Smeltzer over Thielbar and Stashak early on.
  5. Like
    jorgenswest reacted to Dman in Two Wild Cards: Luis Gil and Dakota Chalmers   
    At this point in time I like Chalmers better.  He looks like he might be able to control his pitches and striking out the side the other day means he has swing and miss stuff as well as good velocity.  I think if our pen was a little weaker Chalmers would be a candidate for a pen spot this year.
     
    Gill is younger and still has potential to start.  He got his WHIP down to 1.19 last year in A ball not great but doable for a reliever.  It's a tough choice between the two right now, but as I stated earlier right now today I like Chalmers better.  If Gill manages better control and a more advanced approach he could be much better than Chalmers who I only see as a reliever.
     
    The Twins getting Cave who looks MLB ready for Gill also complicates this analysis for me as Cave has already been a timely asset as he helped last years team to 101 wins when most of the starting outfield was injured.  Not having him might have impacted that effort.
  6. Like
    jorgenswest reacted to howieramone2 in Two Wild Cards: Luis Gil and Dakota Chalmers   
    Getting a major league ready position player who fills a current need, for a unheralded pitcher in rookie ball is a no-brainer.
  7. Like
    jorgenswest reacted to AceWrigley in Two Wild Cards: Luis Gil and Dakota Chalmers   
    Gil was signed as a free agent by the Twins, Chalmers was a 3rd round pick of the A's. Gil is almost 2 years younger and has performed better on the mound so far. They are the same size.
     
    Gil probably projects as a major league pitcher better than Chalmers, while I think Chalmers is a valid prospect with electric stuff. Gil might end up as an upper-strike zone flame thrower where Chalmers, if he can command the fastball better, can carve through a lineup all through strike zone and really gives righties a fit.
     
    No trade happens in a vacuum and having Cave has really helped, so I guess I'd choose Cave and Chalmers over Gil. Just don't ask me again tomorrow.
  8. Like
    jorgenswest reacted to DocBauer in Two Wild Cards: Luis Gil and Dakota Chalmers   
    I think I might still stick with Chalmers...leaving any contributions by Cave out of the equation...simply because gut feeling is Chalmers has the better chance to stay in the rotation. Also, despite limited IP, he's still closer to the ML level, which makes me feel he's closer to panning out.
  9. Like
    jorgenswest got a reaction from dex8425 in What To Do With Devin Smeltzer   
    Thanks. He really is a great story.
     
    I think he gets a shot at those early starts with Pineda and Hill out and makes it hard for the Twins to take him out of the rotation when they return. Keeping hitters off balance and sequencing are key for him. He is going to throw his off speed and breaking stuff more than half the time. They have got to get that mix right.
  10. Like
    jorgenswest got a reaction from Cody Pirkl in What To Do With Devin Smeltzer   
    Thanks. He really is a great story.
     
    I think he gets a shot at those early starts with Pineda and Hill out and makes it hard for the Twins to take him out of the rotation when they return. Keeping hitters off balance and sequencing are key for him. He is going to throw his off speed and breaking stuff more than half the time. They have got to get that mix right.
  11. Like
    jorgenswest got a reaction from mikelink45 in Robo umps and the future of catchers   
    An automated strike zone may be further away from the majors than we think. Baseball Prospectus wrote about all of the hurdles before it can be a useful tool.
     
    One of the hurdles that had me most concerned is setting the top and bottom of the strike zone. Every plate appearance has a unique top and bottom of the strike zone depending on the height and stance of a batter.
     
    Right now two methods have been employed to determine the top and bottom of the zone.
     
    “ PITCHf/x originally used poorly paid “stringers” to sit in a dark room under the stands and manually turn a dial to set the top and bottom of the zone on the video image of the batter. Saunders reports that Statcast uses the previous calls of major league umpires to build a database of the top and bottom of the strike zone for each hitter.”
     
    The automated zone is a result of the previous calls from human umpires. What happens after a few years and the data of previous calls isn’t available for many batters? Do we go back to humans setting it before each pitch?
     
    https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/37347/robo-strike-zone-not-simple-think/
     
    I have doubts that Garver will see the automated zone in his career. The Twins would be wise to continue teaching and seeking this skill.
  12. Like
    jorgenswest got a reaction from mikelink45 in Robo umps and the future of catchers   
    I think the most important skill will be calling a game. Catchers are in a unique position to see what pitches are effective and see better how a batter is responding to a pitch. They need the ability and skill to earn trust from a pitcher so they have confidence in the pitch they are throwing. They need to put in hours of study before each series watching video and learning the trends of hitters. Some will be able to utilize that data much better than others. This skill is more important than framing. Teams that do the best job of assessing this difficult skill to measure will add to their win total.
  13. Like
    jorgenswest reacted to Rhino and Compass in Baldelli and Line Ups: Which Twin has faced the best pitching?   
    I think the answer, with regards to Astudillo is right there in your description of Barnes as a pitcher. Astudillo doesn't strike out, so if the imperative is to make contact, it's hard to go wrong with Willians. A high k pitcher is a perfect opportunity to use him if the goal is simply to put a ball in play, given his unique approach
  14. Like
    jorgenswest got a reaction from Dman in Baldelli and Line Ups: Which Twin has faced the best pitching?   
    I should have looked at that and now that I did I was surprised by the data.
     
    Smeltzer has faced right handed batters in over 75% of the plate appearances against him. That is much higher than the team split of 59% right handed batters. I guess it isn't that surprising since most of the plate appearances against him have come in starts where the other team stacked the line up with right handed batters.
     
    I was surprised that he has been much more effective against right handed batters this year who have posted a .721 OPS against him. Lefties have hit him much harder at an .869 OPS.
  15. Like
    jorgenswest got a reaction from mikelink45 in Baldelli and Line Ups: Which Twin has faced the best pitching?   
    I should have looked at that and now that I did I was surprised by the data.
     
    Smeltzer has faced right handed batters in over 75% of the plate appearances against him. That is much higher than the team split of 59% right handed batters. I guess it isn't that surprising since most of the plate appearances against him have come in starts where the other team stacked the line up with right handed batters.
     
    I was surprised that he has been much more effective against right handed batters this year who have posted a .721 OPS against him. Lefties have hit him much harder at an .869 OPS.
  16. Like
    jorgenswest got a reaction from mikelink45 in Baldelli and Line Ups: Which Twin has faced the best pitching?   
    I explored some more with BP's statistics. This time I looked at the quality of batters each pitcher has faced. 
     
    The pitcher who has faced the highest quality of opposing batter is Devin Smeltzer. I found it interesting that opposing batters have fared worse by OPS against Smeltzer(.756) than the rest of the pitchers they have faced (.780). Tyler Duffey has dominated this year. He hasn't faced near the quality of batter (.731) but with a .582 OPS against he has the biggest differential on the team.
     
    I don't know what to make of slash stat data at this sample. The opposing batter data set would be huge but the data set for the individual player maybe small. While I am very certain that Smeltzer overall has faced a more difficult set of hitters than Duffey I don't know what to make of their individual opposing OPS number. In any case I find it encouraging to be on the positive side.
     
    Of the pitchers that could be eligible for post season there are 11 who have a better OPS against than the opposing pitchers of their batter set. This set is order from biggest positive differential to least.
     
    Tyler Duffey
    Trevor May
    Sergio Romo
    Taylor Rogers
    Jake Odorizzi
    Randy Dobnak
    Ryne Harper
    Jose Berrios
    Zack Littell
    Devin Smeltzer
    Brusdar Graterol
     
    Harper has performed much worse recently. I don't think I would have him on my playoff roster. The other 10 would be on my roster.
     
    The remainder needs to come from pitchers who have performed worse by OPS than the other pitchers that have faced the same batters. Stashak, Perez and Gibson are close to even but Perez and Gibson have not performed well recently either. The only other pitcher in consideration is Thorpe who has been hit hard by opposing batters. I guess I would go with Perez and Stashak but treat Perez as more of an opener with a really short leash second time through the line up.
     
    Two other Twin pitchers posted a positive this season. Mike Morin and Michael Pineda. Pineda really let us down.
  17. Like
    jorgenswest got a reaction from ToddlerHarmon in Baldelli and Line Ups: Which Twin has faced the best pitching?   
    I explored some more with BP's statistics. This time I looked at the quality of batters each pitcher has faced. 
     
    The pitcher who has faced the highest quality of opposing batter is Devin Smeltzer. I found it interesting that opposing batters have fared worse by OPS against Smeltzer(.756) than the rest of the pitchers they have faced (.780). Tyler Duffey has dominated this year. He hasn't faced near the quality of batter (.731) but with a .582 OPS against he has the biggest differential on the team.
     
    I don't know what to make of slash stat data at this sample. The opposing batter data set would be huge but the data set for the individual player maybe small. While I am very certain that Smeltzer overall has faced a more difficult set of hitters than Duffey I don't know what to make of their individual opposing OPS number. In any case I find it encouraging to be on the positive side.
     
    Of the pitchers that could be eligible for post season there are 11 who have a better OPS against than the opposing pitchers of their batter set. This set is order from biggest positive differential to least.
     
    Tyler Duffey
    Trevor May
    Sergio Romo
    Taylor Rogers
    Jake Odorizzi
    Randy Dobnak
    Ryne Harper
    Jose Berrios
    Zack Littell
    Devin Smeltzer
    Brusdar Graterol
     
    Harper has performed much worse recently. I don't think I would have him on my playoff roster. The other 10 would be on my roster.
     
    The remainder needs to come from pitchers who have performed worse by OPS than the other pitchers that have faced the same batters. Stashak, Perez and Gibson are close to even but Perez and Gibson have not performed well recently either. The only other pitcher in consideration is Thorpe who has been hit hard by opposing batters. I guess I would go with Perez and Stashak but treat Perez as more of an opener with a really short leash second time through the line up.
     
    Two other Twin pitchers posted a positive this season. Mike Morin and Michael Pineda. Pineda really let us down.
  18. Like
    jorgenswest got a reaction from Sconnie in Do Odorizzi and Pérez need an Opener?   
    Odorizzi’s work in the first inning has been very good relative to league over his career. They might get shorten his starts but it is going to take a pretty good reliever to be more successful with the top of the line up.
     
    The league split ERA was much higher inning 1 than other innings at 4.79 last year.
     
  19. Like
    jorgenswest got a reaction from TNTwinsFan in Making the Most of Max   
    I am encouraged by both the reduction in strike out rate and increase in walk rate in 2018.
  20. Like
    jorgenswest got a reaction from adorduan in Jonathan Schoop Makes the Twins a lot Better Against the AL Central   
    I think they signed him because he is young, he has had success and they have reason to believe from their data that 2018 was an outlier. I can’t imagine they would look at slash stat data in this size sample.
  21. Like
    jorgenswest got a reaction from glunn in Willians Astrudillo might be the second coming of an equally unheralded catcher that won the Twins a championship   
    I don’t think he was ever a poor defensive catcher. He showed a good bat with the Angels but he also had solid veteran catchers blocking him in Brian Downing, Ed Ott, Bob Boone and Tony Pena. The Angels also called him up at 19 so they had to make a decision on him and moved him off catcher. He was still blocked when traded to the Pirates by Pena and Junior Ortiz. That his defense at a young age didn’t compare to those veterans shouldn’t have given him the label of poor defensive catcher. He also was brought up to the majors so early he never really had time to develop before teams needed to make 25 and 40 man roster decisions on him. After that he was no longer seen as a catcher until the Twins signed him and gave him the opportunity
     
    If Astudillo’s defense is similar to Harper’s defense he should be the front runner for starting catcher next year. Harper was able to answer the question about his defense. I hope Astudillo can also.
  22. Like
    jorgenswest reacted to Kelly Vance in Nick Gordon, Lamonte Wade and Infield Fly Balls   
    For most people, popping up means that you were late on the swing by just a whisker. Most batters use an uppercut swing,
     
    To hit a ball squarely, you are really aiming at that middle inch, shown by the narrowest of seams on the baseball.  Hit the bottom of that inch and it is a (hopefully) long fly. Hit it on top of the inch and it is a screaming grounder. In between... dead solid perfect... .
     
    So in a normal swing trajectory, if yo are under the ball, you are late.  Makes sense to me that minor leaguers would have a higher late swing rate. They are younger and still developing, and I think the hesitation of youth .... but is there any way to measure the speed of a swing? 
     
     
     
  23. Like
    jorgenswest reacted to dbminn in Nick Gordon, Lamonte Wade and Infield Fly Balls   
    It's a good topic that hasn't been fully explored. Here's a fairly recent FG article on the relatively high IFFB rates in the minors compared to MLB. Might give you some more food for thought.
     
    I've thought that hitters who pop up have a hard time laying off high fastballs and an uppercut swing, but that's just conjecture on my part. I hope you keep looking at the issue.
     
    By the way, Joe Mauer is the king of not hitting IFFB - 2.2% of FB for his entire career!
  24. Like
    jorgenswest reacted to Greg Logan in Robbie Grossman and the Twins’ lefty problem   
    I'm not ready to make that jump. With so many left-handers in this lineup you have to have someone who can hit LHP even at a league-average clip, and until we have more than a year's worth of PA's suggesting Grossman can't, you have to trust his track record.
  25. Like
    jorgenswest got a reaction from ToddlerHarmon in What does one of the newest predictive measurements tell about the Twins' bats in 2018?   
    It does not factor in a batter’s speed as a skill.
     
    xwOBA is concerned only with what happens just after the ball leaves the bat, and what the hitter does once he leaves the box doesn’t change it all. Of course, a speedy batter is much more likely to turn a gapper into a double or a triple than a slow batter is. Any difference as a result of speed should not change.
     
    Another factor that might account for differences in xwOBA and wOBA is ballpark factors. xwOBA doesn’t care about the ballpark. Since the Twins are playing in Target Field any difference due to park should not change.
     
    The last of course is luck. This is what xwOBA hopes to measure. Which batters hit the ball better than their numbers indicate? They might expect that their numbers did not match their ability and can expect that they would this year.
     
    I also think a fourth factor might be a hitter’s spray chart. How easy is it to shift the defense in areas where the player consistently hits the ball hard?
     
    What does it mean for those Twins?
     
    Is Buxton difference mostly due to good luck or his baserunning skill? How about Mauer? How much is bad luck and how much is slow baserunning?
     
    How about Mauer vs. Rosario? Rosario’s line drives are spread from foul line to foul line. Most of Joe’s are left field to center field. Which player is easier to shift against? Wouldn’t that effect this number?
     
    It would be awesome to have a measure bad and good luck to help determine a player’s skill level? Baserunning is a skill. The ability to hit the ball to all fields is a skill. I don’t think this number factors those skills out.
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