twinssporto

I wasn't focusing on how they did it 30 years ago. Just an over simplified observation. As they say in the investment world, "past results are not indicative of future performance"

I'm not a math whiz but I do remember the 87 and 91 Twins teams had a decent team batting average (.261 in 1987 and .280 in 1991). I'll take the higher batting average...

I'm having trouble find a loss on the schedule....

I'm going out on a limb and say they're gonna LIGHT IT UP this season!  94 WINS!

94 wins. Divisional winners. ALCS Champions.

94 wins. Divisional winners. ALCS Champions.

94 wins. Divisional winners. ALCS Champions.

A simply great article. All of it true. When winning is relegated to 2nd place, failure walks in the door and stays there. Making exuses..and touting great things when you lose is a fools game, at least in pro sports it is. Winning actually does bring communities together....strange as it seems. I live close to Buffalo....a city that is rife with losing. What is going on there now, with Josh Allen and the resurgence of the Bills is something to witness. You can only endure losing for so long, before you actually do give up the ship. Small wins are nice...but the BIG wins are the ones that really matter. The Atlanta Braves won a division title every year for a decade....with only 1 WS win to their credit. The result was an empty ballpark.
While there are always exceptions, there will never be an exception to winning in pro sport.  And even if you can't win...you had better 'die' trying with all the grape and guys you can muster.

Absolutely incredible blog.  Thank you for clearly articulating why I have nearly given up on my beloved team after similarly rooting for them for nearly 40 years.  in addition to all of your stellar assessments, I believe the hyper focus on analytics is actually eroding our Twins ability to win in big moments.  Let me explain. 
In an ironic twist, I own a data analytics firm of my own (specializing in private higher education enrollment).  Analytics are designed to allow the decision makers the ability to make decisions without emotion clouding their judgement.  Great.  Wonderful concept.  But, if all that was needed to run or manage a team was analytics, we wouldn't need a front office or even a manager.  We would just need a data analyst to text an operations director in the dugout what they should do.  When every single decision is made without emotion, eventually, the players who are generating that analytical data will similarly become conditioned to play with less emotion...and that's the rub. 
Baseball, nay, sports in general, are designed to be emotional!  That's the attraction - both as a player and especially as a fan.  I don't want to always see 'the right thing'....I want to see 'the thing that moves me'.  I yearn to see the underdog surpass expectations.  I hunger to see a manager assess the player at the moment - does he have it right now?  Do I leave him in to face the order again?  Do I allow a rookie to try to throw a no-hitter?!?!?!?  
Analytics creates a plan....but no plan is perfect.  As I have learned in my business, courageous leadership is about learning how and when to deviate from the plan and how and when to stick to it.  Look at Tito Francona, Dave Roberts, Tony LaRussa, Brian Snitker.  These guys understand how to manage the emotional side of the game...and their teams have been winners in the clutch.  I'm not knocking Rocco.  I just think he needs to learn there is an art to leading a team that far beyond what analytics tell you to do in every, stinking, moment.

Knowing the kind of free agents that the Twins will actually sign (not pipe dreams), my best guess at the 2022 opening rotation would look something like this:
Johnny Cueto
Eduardo Rodriguez
Jose Quintana
Bailey Ober
Randy Dobnak
World Series experience, cherry-picked stat windows and the super-magical abilities of Wes Johnson will be used as selling tools to the fans.
By mid-May comments like "DFA Quintana now!" and "Why is Rodriguez still in the rotation? Call up [insert prospect with hot start]!" will litter TD.  I'll probably be one of the ones making the comments.  Rinse/Repeat.

Pretty good assessment after the first paragraph.  As for the first paragraph.......hmm, how to be polite.    As good as Buxton is, yes, when healthy, he is not on the same planet as Rod Carew if you want to go into Twins history.  Not only did Rod have the tools, he used them.  He could turn a walk into a run better than anyone in the game.  Buxton refuses to use his speed to the degree he not only could, but should, anywhere but in the field.  He will not bunt, and steals sparingly (as in he could steal 3rd and even home far more often).  In his own words, he is "looking to drive the ball", not worry about his average, even though a higher average would put him on base more, putting him in a position to do more with his speed.  His athleticism may or may not be unmatched, but his production is far from unparalleled (no, production is not on a per game basis, it is season to season).  You have to be on the field to produce; no one has yet to produce from the trainers room.  
Don't get me wrong; as I said, a good assessment from the 2nd paragraph down, but he has started more than 88 games only once in his career and until he does consistently, year in and year out, the jury will remain out.  Doesn't mean I wouldn't sign him, but not for the money he thinks he is worth.  Not yet, anyway.

Pro tip: never listen to Chief.

I have to start paying more attention. I layed down for a long nap yesterday and awoke to find out the 2020 season is (projected) over. This has me contemplating changing my ID to Rip van Platoon. . 

Great article.
 
Thank you!

I personally hope we start off with the Yankees.  I think we will kick their #$@%!
 
Let the long balls fly! I'll sleep well regardless of outcome. This will be so fun to watch (I may vomit a few times during the series but exciting it will be).

First of all, great post! Really wish this was on the front page.
 
Not piling at anyone, but remember not so long ago when Rosario was just too wild, Polanco couldn't play short, Kepler was only a 4th OF, etc, etc. And without Cruz, the team's lineup averages just under 27yo! That is crazy! Of course, Cruz will be back next season. Personally, I wish/hope the market is slow for Castro and he would come back for another couple years on a reduced deal.
 
Unless hope and fantasy meet, there are no top of the order difference maker SP options available at the moment. Unless you want to gift wrap some crazy package of prospects and vastly overpay. And after that there is nobody available who clearly offers anything better than what the Twins have on hand. And what they have on hand is awfully good.
 
The problems with the pen have been overblown. You don't have the record/season the Twins have with a dumpster fire bullpen. What did you say, if they only played teams with a .500 record or better they would win 88 games? Crazy! And we have some guys who are stepping up and looking like real pen options for the future, but even though some will continue to help, and make the post season roster, it's too late to really count on most of them for now. Think about the tough games against the Yankees this year. Only 6 games, but if we had another couple of arms we could count on, we very likely split, if not win the series.
 
This team has an honest chance in 2019 with a couple solid pen additions. A real and honest chance. And they have the milb depth to make at least one more high quality move.
 
But as good as this team is, as young and talented as it is, the window is not only open, but it could be wide open for another 4-5 years if we can keep the bulk of this roster together. While there are very good prospects lower in the system, there is a very nice collection of arms and position players at Rochester and Pensacola who could/can/have started to contribute.
 
I like our first move. We need another acquisition even better. But I agree that I just wouldn't mortgage anything for 2019 when this team is so good and has so much potential. There are vast differences between doing nothing, making a couple smart moves, and giving up 4-6 top 20/30 prospects to go all in for one season.

You do realize that if Molitor stays, and Rogers excels, his left arm will likely fly into the visitors dugout around the Memorial Day weekend! . But taken care of, he does seem the real deal.
 
As for Hildy, Molitor has despite his original statements of a closer audition, settled on Hildenberger. Maybe it will work, but I am not a fan of gimmicky pitchers.

Agreed, there were cool pictures as well.
 
Nice work Brandon!

Dude, Some one else wrote a much better article on this. You can find it  https://zonecoverage.com/2018/twins/warne-trying-to-make-sense-of-the-buxton-decision/

Why is this an article? Fact is you can never begin to explain how baseball or any other major sport for that matter works to the average fan. These people still think it’s 1991 or 1987 and star players play for a million dollars and take the hometown discount every time. I have family that have season tickets. Watch every game when not there. Go to Twinsfest every year. Have everything in the world signed by Joe Mauer and Kirby Pucket. I had to explain to them who Berrios and Buxton were. I try to explain prospects, and all the intricacies of how it works and watch their eyes glaze over. The same people who love Joe Mauer but don’t think he should have got the big contract. Not understanding that when he signed that contract that was the market for a star catcher in his prime. If not more.Yet they still expected him to stay in Minnesota forever yet only play for like a million a year. Impossible. Trying to cater to the average fan is like trying to explain capitalism to a socialist.

I was in line for a brat the day after the Dozier trade.  A 70-ish year old guy behind was lamenting how "cheap" the Twins were in letting Dozier and Escobar go.  I said the Twins did not skimp on salaries this year and will sign free agents next year, possibly including Escobar.  I tried to explain the expiring contracts, free agency, rising middle infield stars coming up in minors, how players decline after age 31, and that the Twins got something in return rather than the "big nothing" if they had held on and lost the players in free agency.  The guy just looked at me obliviously, secure in the knowledge that he had it figured out correctly.   The brat was good though. 

Awesome blog.  Thanks Mike!  

Thanks for writing this!  Fantastic!
 
What an amazing person.

Great work Thrylos!  Appreciate the information.

I believe Gonsalves will be up first. I think Stewart is gonna be one of those pitching prospect that struggle badly at every level jump. But Stewart has the chance of developing into a legit #2 SP when he finally clicks, possibly after a few years of inconsistencies once he's in the majors. He might be on the Roy Halladay long route. But the Twins pitching prospect I'm most excited about is Lewis Thorpe. I absolutely love that kids stuff. I can't wait when he gets back from TJ. Not sure if he'll still have that high 90s explosive fastball anymore but you never know. Some come back with just as much velocity as before. I'm excited to watch Thorpe develop his secondaries and command. But I think he's gonna special. And I love Nick Burdi too as the Twins next great closer. That arm is ridiculous. He just needs to learn how to use his plus plus fastball and plus slider in concert. When he does, he's gonna be a straight up lockdown closer