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jharaldson

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  1. Like
    jharaldson got a reaction from Mark G in The Lockout Diaries: Week 8   
    One of the things I think gets forgotten in these negotiations is that the owners are likely still remembering back to the end of 2020 where, according to Forbes, they lost $1 Billion due to empty stadiums but full paychecks to players.  They look at the NBA where their players worked with ownership and agreed to a %25 paycut to reflect empty stadiums and to the NHL where the players agreed to a %20 paycut and a %10 deferral.  The owners must remember when they put an 82 season on the table with some paycuts to try and put a dent in those losses and the players rejecting it.  In the proposal the owners put forward a minimum salaried guy like Luis Arraez would have made $256K in 82 games but guys like Donaldson would have taken a good sized cut.  The players preferred a system where Arraez made $208K in 60 games so Donaldson could get his full pay.  
    I don't see any good will the players have built with the owners that would incentivize them to negotiate a favorable deal to the players.  They probably think they gave enough in 2020.
  2. Like
    jharaldson got a reaction from KGB in The Lockout Diaries: Week 8   
    One of the things I think gets forgotten in these negotiations is that the owners are likely still remembering back to the end of 2020 where, according to Forbes, they lost $1 Billion due to empty stadiums but full paychecks to players.  They look at the NBA where their players worked with ownership and agreed to a %25 paycut to reflect empty stadiums and to the NHL where the players agreed to a %20 paycut and a %10 deferral.  The owners must remember when they put an 82 season on the table with some paycuts to try and put a dent in those losses and the players rejecting it.  In the proposal the owners put forward a minimum salaried guy like Luis Arraez would have made $256K in 82 games but guys like Donaldson would have taken a good sized cut.  The players preferred a system where Arraez made $208K in 60 games so Donaldson could get his full pay.  
    I don't see any good will the players have built with the owners that would incentivize them to negotiate a favorable deal to the players.  They probably think they gave enough in 2020.
  3. Like
    jharaldson got a reaction from RpR in How Twins fans have been spoiled by a lack of mediocrity for two decades   
    Let's look at the regular season then.  The Twins have gone 32-109 against the Yankees since 2002.  That .227 Winning% is worse than the New York Mets baseline of 40-120 that is commonly used as replacement level.  Seeing the Twins getting dominated by the Yankees year after year and seeing the Twins and AL Central have so many issues in the postseason make me think that we need to weight your "mediocre" scale.  In FIP they often have a ballpark rating to adjust expected ERA up or down depending on ease of hitting HR and such.  I am going to apply a factor to teams in the AL Central.  An 81-81 team in the AL East is better than an 81-81 team in the Central so while you used +-10 games to get to 76-86 and 86-76 I am going to use 80 as my starting point and go 80-82 and 90-72 which means requiring 4 additional wins per season to get out of "mediocre" for an AL Central team.  This adjusts your table to the following:
    2002: 94-67 - Good
    2003: 90-72 - Mediocre
    2004: 92-70 - Good
    2005: 83-79 - Mediocre
    2006: 96-66 - Good
    2007: 79-83 - Bad
    2008: 88-75 - Mediocre
    2009: 87-76 - Mediocre
    2010: 94-68 - Good
    2011: 63-99 - Bad
    2012: 66-96 - Bad
    2013: 66-96 - Bad
    2014: 70-92 - Bad
    2015: 83-79 - Mediocre
    2016: 59-103 - Bad
    2017: 85-77 - Mediocre
    2018: 78-84 - Bad
    2019: 101-61 - Good
    2020: Too short to compare
    2021: 73-89 - Bad
    I personally view 14 of the past 20 season as either mediocre or bad.
  4. Like
    jharaldson got a reaction from Otto von Ballpark in Byron Buxton's Body Has Betrayed Him Yet Again. It Sucks And It's No One's Fault.   
    From what I can see in the link below it is actually less than 1.5 seconds.  
    Washington Post Baseball Swing Study
    I'm not saying that this is easy, it is incredibly hard.  But being able to identify a pitch is part of what distinguishes a professional from a minor leaguer and is a defined and recognized skill in major league baseball.
    In regards to Chapman, from what I can read his injury was caused as a result of the ball being excessively darkened by spit, dirt, and other substances plus the fact the game had extended into the late afternoon with no artificial lights.  Not being able to react because you can't see the ball vs. not reacting well to a ball that is fully visible and is well-lit are two entirely different things.
  5. Like
    jharaldson got a reaction from Hosken Bombo Disco in Byron Buxton's Body Has Betrayed Him Yet Again. It Sucks And It's No One's Fault.   
    I will disagree with the fact that this injury is not Buxton's fault.  Below I have 2 screenshots from the pitch that hit him.  The first shows him with his hands protected behind his triceps and the second is from a fraction of a second later when he had brought his hands in to start a swinging motion.  He obviously massively misjudged this ball and instead of protecting his hands during a non-swing he had to instead try to protect them mid-swing which is why they were out there in plain sight.  Better pitch identification and him reacting by turning his left shoulder in instead of bringing his hands into the zone would have prevented this injury.  


  6. Like
    jharaldson got a reaction from Otto von Ballpark in Byron Buxton's Body Has Betrayed Him Yet Again. It Sucks And It's No One's Fault.   
    I will disagree with the fact that this injury is not Buxton's fault.  Below I have 2 screenshots from the pitch that hit him.  The first shows him with his hands protected behind his triceps and the second is from a fraction of a second later when he had brought his hands in to start a swinging motion.  He obviously massively misjudged this ball and instead of protecting his hands during a non-swing he had to instead try to protect them mid-swing which is why they were out there in plain sight.  Better pitch identification and him reacting by turning his left shoulder in instead of bringing his hands into the zone would have prevented this injury.  


  7. Like
    jharaldson got a reaction from TL in Front Page: Twins' Payroll Analysis: Three Pitchers, $70M   
    Something a little outside the box I would like to see is the Twins go after Yu Darvish on a trade.  He ranked 7th among all starters in K% and 10th in xFIP.  His ERA and FIP were inflated due to uncharacteristically high HR% which may be solved by leaving Wrigley and can help reduce his trade cost. he is down to 4Y/$81M on his contract which helps reduce the risk.  
  8. Like
    jharaldson got a reaction from Dantes929 in Front Page: Twins' Payroll Analysis: Three Pitchers, $70M   
    Something a little outside the box I would like to see is the Twins go after Yu Darvish on a trade.  He ranked 7th among all starters in K% and 10th in xFIP.  His ERA and FIP were inflated due to uncharacteristically high HR% which may be solved by leaving Wrigley and can help reduce his trade cost. he is down to 4Y/$81M on his contract which helps reduce the risk.  
  9. Like
    jharaldson reacted to Mr. Brooks in Article: Let's Make A Deal (Arbitration Edition)   
    Why would Rosario sign that? He's practically guaranteed more that that through the next 2 years of arbitration.
  10. Like
    jharaldson reacted to Twins33 in Are the Twins for sale?   
    "Subd. 9. Public share upon sale of team. The lease or use agreement must provide that, if the team is sold after the effective date of this article, a portion of the sale price must be paid to the authority and deposited in a reserve fund for improvements to the ballpark or expended as the authority may otherwise direct. The portion required to be so paid to the authority is 18 percent of the gross sale price, declining to zero ten years after commencement of ballpark construction in increments of 1.8 percent each year. The agreement shall provide exceptions for sales to members of the owner’s family and entities and trusts benecially owned by family members, sales to employees of equity interests aggregating up to ten percent, and sales related to capital infusions not distributed to the owners." 
    Page 17
    http://www.ballparkauthority.com/PDFs/MBA_Legislation.pdf
  11. Like
    jharaldson reacted to Thrylos in Article: Pros and Crons: Weighing the Merits of Minnesota's Latest Addition   
    2018 numbers:
     
    Cron 2.1 fWAR
    Mauer 1.0 fWAR
    Austin 0.3 fWAR in 69 games or 0.6 fWAR/150 games
     
    Con is the best fist baseman they have now and about double as good as Mauer was last season.
     
    Wonder whether the Twins gave Mauer  (a lesser player than Cron these days) an 1 yr / $6M contact, would had been so much negativity about the signing.
     
    Worse come to worst, they cut him if they find anyone better.
     
    Bottom line:  The Twins are better with Cron than they were the minute before they signed him.
  12. Like
    jharaldson reacted to Rosterman in Article: State of the Twins Coaching Staff: Who's In, Who's Out, Names to Watch   
    Doug Bernier. Hey give a job to Mike Redmond.
  13. Like
    jharaldson got a reaction from Blake in Article: ESPN Report: Miguel Sano Won't Face Criminal Charges   
    In regards to the 3AM discussion, I would ask that people would evaluate this based on the culture of the Dominican Republic and not in US standards.  I traveled to Brazil last year and because they are used to having American guests they worked with a restaurant to ensure they would be open at 8PM when they were going to take us out to eat.  I asked why this is and they said because it is so hot out during the day that most activity takes place at night and that late dinners at 10,11,12 is fairly common.  I am not sure how many cultural norms Brazil and the Dominican Republic share but it seems like a possibility that this is one.
  14. Like
    jharaldson got a reaction from gagu in Article: ESPN Report: Miguel Sano Won't Face Criminal Charges   
    In regards to the 3AM discussion, I would ask that people would evaluate this based on the culture of the Dominican Republic and not in US standards.  I traveled to Brazil last year and because they are used to having American guests they worked with a restaurant to ensure they would be open at 8PM when they were going to take us out to eat.  I asked why this is and they said because it is so hot out during the day that most activity takes place at night and that late dinners at 10,11,12 is fairly common.  I am not sure how many cultural norms Brazil and the Dominican Republic share but it seems like a possibility that this is one.
  15. Like
    jharaldson got a reaction from TFRazor in Article: ESPN Report: Miguel Sano Won't Face Criminal Charges   
    In regards to the 3AM discussion, I would ask that people would evaluate this based on the culture of the Dominican Republic and not in US standards.  I traveled to Brazil last year and because they are used to having American guests they worked with a restaurant to ensure they would be open at 8PM when they were going to take us out to eat.  I asked why this is and they said because it is so hot out during the day that most activity takes place at night and that late dinners at 10,11,12 is fairly common.  I am not sure how many cultural norms Brazil and the Dominican Republic share but it seems like a possibility that this is one.
  16. Like
    jharaldson got a reaction from glunn in Article: ESPN Report: Miguel Sano Won't Face Criminal Charges   
    In regards to the 3AM discussion, I would ask that people would evaluate this based on the culture of the Dominican Republic and not in US standards.  I traveled to Brazil last year and because they are used to having American guests they worked with a restaurant to ensure they would be open at 8PM when they were going to take us out to eat.  I asked why this is and they said because it is so hot out during the day that most activity takes place at night and that late dinners at 10,11,12 is fairly common.  I am not sure how many cultural norms Brazil and the Dominican Republic share but it seems like a possibility that this is one.
  17. Like
    jharaldson got a reaction from blindeke in Article: ESPN Report: Miguel Sano Won't Face Criminal Charges   
    In regards to the 3AM discussion, I would ask that people would evaluate this based on the culture of the Dominican Republic and not in US standards.  I traveled to Brazil last year and because they are used to having American guests they worked with a restaurant to ensure they would be open at 8PM when they were going to take us out to eat.  I asked why this is and they said because it is so hot out during the day that most activity takes place at night and that late dinners at 10,11,12 is fairly common.  I am not sure how many cultural norms Brazil and the Dominican Republic share but it seems like a possibility that this is one.
  18. Like
    jharaldson got a reaction from wabene in Article: ESPN Report: Miguel Sano Won't Face Criminal Charges   
    In regards to the 3AM discussion, I would ask that people would evaluate this based on the culture of the Dominican Republic and not in US standards.  I traveled to Brazil last year and because they are used to having American guests they worked with a restaurant to ensure they would be open at 8PM when they were going to take us out to eat.  I asked why this is and they said because it is so hot out during the day that most activity takes place at night and that late dinners at 10,11,12 is fairly common.  I am not sure how many cultural norms Brazil and the Dominican Republic share but it seems like a possibility that this is one.
  19. Like
    jharaldson got a reaction from DannySD in Article: ESPN Report: Miguel Sano Won't Face Criminal Charges   
    In regards to the 3AM discussion, I would ask that people would evaluate this based on the culture of the Dominican Republic and not in US standards.  I traveled to Brazil last year and because they are used to having American guests they worked with a restaurant to ensure they would be open at 8PM when they were going to take us out to eat.  I asked why this is and they said because it is so hot out during the day that most activity takes place at night and that late dinners at 10,11,12 is fairly common.  I am not sure how many cultural norms Brazil and the Dominican Republic share but it seems like a possibility that this is one.
  20. Like
    jharaldson got a reaction from Danchat in Article: ESPN Report: Miguel Sano Won't Face Criminal Charges   
    In regards to the 3AM discussion, I would ask that people would evaluate this based on the culture of the Dominican Republic and not in US standards.  I traveled to Brazil last year and because they are used to having American guests they worked with a restaurant to ensure they would be open at 8PM when they were going to take us out to eat.  I asked why this is and they said because it is so hot out during the day that most activity takes place at night and that late dinners at 10,11,12 is fairly common.  I am not sure how many cultural norms Brazil and the Dominican Republic share but it seems like a possibility that this is one.
  21. Like
    jharaldson got a reaction from IndianaTwin in Article: ESPN Report: Miguel Sano Won't Face Criminal Charges   
    In regards to the 3AM discussion, I would ask that people would evaluate this based on the culture of the Dominican Republic and not in US standards.  I traveled to Brazil last year and because they are used to having American guests they worked with a restaurant to ensure they would be open at 8PM when they were going to take us out to eat.  I asked why this is and they said because it is so hot out during the day that most activity takes place at night and that late dinners at 10,11,12 is fairly common.  I am not sure how many cultural norms Brazil and the Dominican Republic share but it seems like a possibility that this is one.
  22. Like
    jharaldson got a reaction from brvama in Article: ESPN Report: Miguel Sano Won't Face Criminal Charges   
    In regards to the 3AM discussion, I would ask that people would evaluate this based on the culture of the Dominican Republic and not in US standards.  I traveled to Brazil last year and because they are used to having American guests they worked with a restaurant to ensure they would be open at 8PM when they were going to take us out to eat.  I asked why this is and they said because it is so hot out during the day that most activity takes place at night and that late dinners at 10,11,12 is fairly common.  I am not sure how many cultural norms Brazil and the Dominican Republic share but it seems like a possibility that this is one.
  23. Like
    jharaldson got a reaction from MN_ExPat in Article: ESPN Report: Miguel Sano Won't Face Criminal Charges   
    In regards to the 3AM discussion, I would ask that people would evaluate this based on the culture of the Dominican Republic and not in US standards.  I traveled to Brazil last year and because they are used to having American guests they worked with a restaurant to ensure they would be open at 8PM when they were going to take us out to eat.  I asked why this is and they said because it is so hot out during the day that most activity takes place at night and that late dinners at 10,11,12 is fairly common.  I am not sure how many cultural norms Brazil and the Dominican Republic share but it seems like a possibility that this is one.
  24. Like
    jharaldson got a reaction from Craig Arko in Article: ESPN Report: Miguel Sano Won't Face Criminal Charges   
    In regards to the 3AM discussion, I would ask that people would evaluate this based on the culture of the Dominican Republic and not in US standards.  I traveled to Brazil last year and because they are used to having American guests they worked with a restaurant to ensure they would be open at 8PM when they were going to take us out to eat.  I asked why this is and they said because it is so hot out during the day that most activity takes place at night and that late dinners at 10,11,12 is fairly common.  I am not sure how many cultural norms Brazil and the Dominican Republic share but it seems like a possibility that this is one.
  25. Like
    jharaldson got a reaction from jamisea in Article: ESPN Report: Miguel Sano Won't Face Criminal Charges   
    In regards to the 3AM discussion, I would ask that people would evaluate this based on the culture of the Dominican Republic and not in US standards.  I traveled to Brazil last year and because they are used to having American guests they worked with a restaurant to ensure they would be open at 8PM when they were going to take us out to eat.  I asked why this is and they said because it is so hot out during the day that most activity takes place at night and that late dinners at 10,11,12 is fairly common.  I am not sure how many cultural norms Brazil and the Dominican Republic share but it seems like a possibility that this is one.
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