Ted Schwerzler

On Tuesday night, MLB Network ran multiple hours of coverage to unveil the 2023 Major League Baseball Hall of Fame class. Despite 14 new names added to the ballot for writers to select, the ballot was hardly clogged and we still saw only Scott Rolen join the Hall of Fame. What does it mean for Joe Mauer's candidacy?
 
Image courtesy of © David Berding-USA TODAY Sports Last year, some of the best baseball players ever (Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens) went unelected in their final year on the Hall of Fame ballot. As we know, they were heavily tied to steroids, and that is certainly the reason they are not in. However, the Hall of Fame is a museum and incomplete without acknowledging the sport’s history as a whole. We still don’t have Pete Rose or "Shoeless" Joe Jackson in, and there are plenty of others who have been left out over the years.
One can argue whether they would like to see those linked to some form of cheating left out, but the reality is that there are far worse or more egregious offenders already inducted. What should be a cause for concern among Twins fans is the way in which the process played out this season.
Coming into this voting cycle, only Carlos Beltran was among the first-time candidates that had any true level of Hall Hope. His support has waned in light of the scandal with the Houston Astros (although, again, that has nothing to do with his playing days), but his resume was always going to be borderline. That left only Scott Rolen and Todd Helton as potential inductees.
With the ability to select up to ten players, there were plenty of BBWAA members that turned in blank ballots. Rather than abstain from voting at all, multiple writers went to the trouble of turning in an empty ballot to make every candidate’s chances worse. There were far more that used less than the ten total slots, and plenty that used less than five.
Fast forward to 2024.
The two Hall of Famers from next year’s ballot should be Adrian Beltre and Joe Mauer. It is generally believed that Beltre will make the ballot in his first year of eligibility. The problem is that Mauer is not seen in the same way.
For years, it has seemed as though the Twins fanbase was hardest on Mauer. Whether because of a terribly-reported diagnosis of bilateral leg weakness, an inability to blast home runs, or a contract that paid him for previous performance, there have always been detractors here. It seems that nationally Mauer has been praised a bit more. He’s on par with a player like Buster Posey, and he could have challenged the likes of Mike Piazza or even Carlton Fisk without the brain injuries that altered the course of his career.
Mauer’s resume speaks for itself. He’s won multiple batting titles and should have won a Gold Glove at first base following a position change (still mad at you Eric Hosmer). There doesn’t seem to be a concern that Mauer is NOT a Hall of Famer, but rather when he gets in.
 
Therein lies the problem, a process that’s broken within the writers voting on behalf of the BBWAA.
If Helton and Rolen were seen as the only two candidates close, and Beltre is only joined by Mauer next year, there is no reason both shouldn’t be in on the first ballot. To suggest that the quickness with which a player goes in holds weight is silly. A good portion of when a player is elected has to do with how tight the ballot itself is.
There has not yet been enough support for Billy Wagner. Jeff Kent falls off after this season, and Gary Sheffield would need a massive jump in his final year. Despite being among the best ever to play the game, no one is voting for Alex Rodriguez.
It’s only logical that if a writer believes that Joe Mauer is truly a Hall of Famer, and said writer has up to ten openings, he would be among them.
For writers of the BBWAA to purposely leave Mauer off of a light ballot only to vote for him a year later would be grandstanding at its best. The sanctity of going in on the first ballot gets more weight than the merit of a player’s resume. It has been discussed before that changing the ballot to a simple yes/no scenario may make sense, but that exercise can be practiced in its current format given how few should truly be considered.
On a night that MLB Network took up three hours of airtime to market the stars of yesteryear, the writers fell short in getting the necessary names in. Helton should get his due next season, but like Mauer, waiting doesn't make sense. Fast forwarding to the next cycle and knowing we’re in for another light group, it would be inexcusable to leave the Twins legend off for little more than posturing.

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Over the past handful of years we have seen front offices re-evaluate how they go about paying sluggers. While the designated hitter has become universal, and there are some players truly not fit to play in the field, most boppers must now possess more than just power potential. This trend is working against two ex-Twins who provided explosive power for the Twins' 2019 Bomba Squad.
 
Image courtesy of © Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports We rarely see players like Chris Davis, Khris Davis, or Chris Carter on the baseball diamond anymore. The Baltimore Orioles immediately looked questionable when giving Chris Davis a bloated deal as analytics began to weigh on-base percentages differently. Both Miguel Sano and Nelson Cruz have shown a better approach than some of the aforementioned names, but as each heads elsewhere you have to wonder what either have left.
Recently the San Diego Padres signed Cruz for just $1 million. That is his lowest yearly salary since he was 29-years-old back in 2010. Expected to get plenty of designated hitter at bats for the Padres, there was very little evidence that the aging process had not have caught up to Cruz a season ago.
Playing 124 games with the Washington Nationals, Cruz posted a paltry .651 OPS and 90 OPS+. His 148 OPS+ with the Twins in 2021 was all but gone, and he began a steep decline with the Tampa Bay Rays after he was traded midseason. Cruz still hit ten homers last year, but his .313 OBP was a far-cry from the .344 mark he has put up over the course of his career.
Cruz rebounded from the .283 OBP he posted with the Rays in 55 games last year, but his slugging percentage dropping to .337 really limits what the potential upside is. Of course, the Padres aren’t making a significant financial commitment by any means, but Steamer projections have him tabbed for just 0.2 fWAR a .714 OPS and nine home runs. It’s hard to see how that type of output lasts in the lineup all year.
Then there is Sano.
Playing in only 20 games for Minnesota last year, he posted an unfathomably bad -0.9 fWAR. By the end of the season he was all but asked to leave the team, and there doesn’t appear to be a reunion tour coming. While Jeremy Nygaard wrote a great piece on Sano, it would be shocking to see Minnesota reopen that door. What I do think remains possible is that Sano finds himself still being a productive slugger.
A season ago Sano was hurt. Injuring his meniscus and then having rehab go both slowly and poorly, he never worked himself back into shape. That has been part of the bugaboo his whole career, and tapping into a newfound work ethic probably isn’t something that a new team be able to rely upon.
Sano at his baseline though can still get it done in stretches. During 2021, the Twins saw Sano post a 112 OPS+ and blast 30 home runs. His .819 OPS and 119 OPS+ excluding last year is a better offensive profile than Joey Gallo, and Sano has always shown a solid ability to draw walks and command the strike zone. He has rarely been a free-swinger, struggling more with whiffs on velocity than anything, and there has never been a doubt about his immense power.
What should be notable here is that perception of personality matters. A 42-year-old Nelson Cruz is getting a chance because he brings a great clubhouse presence. The Padres can afford to jettison him if he is truly cooked. Miguel Sano is still looking for his next gig, and while it most likely will need to be a minor league deal, his suitors are not as plentiful given the track record he has accumulated.
There is probably a path for Sano to have a better season than Cruz, and even by a substantial margin. The question is who will bite the bullet on allowing it to play out?

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The Minnesota Twins have been engaged in discussions for Miami Marlins starting pitcher Pablo López since at least December. Today that became a reality when they flipped 2022 American League batting champion Luis Arraez to South Beach, per Jeff Passan. In addition, the Twins also received two Marlins prospects in the deal, including one in their top five.
Image courtesy of © David Banks-USA TODAY Sports Last season for the Marlins, Pablo López posted a 3.75 ERA along with a 3.71 FIP. He’s jumped his strikeouts over one per inning in the past three seasons and continues to develop as a pitcher. His changeup is noteworthy, and his velocity sits in the mid-90s. Having debuted as a 22-year-old in 2018, he’s just entering his age-27 season.
Minnesota has seemingly been in a never-ending quest for quality starting pitching. After acquiring Cincinnati Reds starters Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle last year, the rotation as a whole grew stronger at the top. While Joe Ryan did start on Opening Day, he projects to slot in as a more middle-to-back-end type of arm. The Twins also will return veteran Kenta Maeda this season, and they have depth in the form of Bailey Ober, Josh Winder, and Simeon Woods Richardson.
The goal for Derek Falvey this offseason was to acquire a talent that met the Gray-threshold. Ideally,
Rocco Baldelli needs another arm that can pitch in a short playoff series and be trusted to get the job done. While it may be debatable how close they truly are, López can certainly be that guy.
Like the Twins did at the deadline, their goal in acquiring arms has been to avoid rentals. They would like to have time to work with pitchers and unlock whatever ceiling is seen for each individual. López is under two more years of team control via arbitration and is projected to make just over $5 million this year per MLB Trade Rumors.
A pitcher at that level, and with that amount of team control, isn’t going to come without a significant cost. That’s where 2022 American League Batting champion Luis Arraez enters the picture. He is a talented player that is truly beloved in the clubhouse and the fanbase. When unveiling their new uniforms back in November, Minnesota opted to have him on stage, and his smile was beaming. Arraez has only known the Twins organization throughout his professional career.
 
Minnesota fans know they are giving up a guy that doesn’t strike out, gets on base, and consistently hits for a high average. However, Derek Falvey is also likely conscious of Arraez’s deficiencies. Arraez has balky knees that have kept him from finishing seasons in recent years and is limited defensively, starting 94 games at first base and designated hitter last year. He has definitely done an admirable job shoring up first base when Baldelli needed him this year, but that position could be ticketed for Alex Kirilloff , among others, in 2023.
In the deal, Minnesota also gets Jose Salas from Miami, per Craig Mish. An infield prospect currently ranked 5th in the Marlins pipeline, he is a 19-year-old that spent 2022 playing at Single-A. With a .722 OPS across 109 games, Salas flashed some power blasting nine home runs. Baseball America’s profile of him this year concluded that “No matter where he winds up on the diamond, his offensive skills will make him a valuable player.” So the Twins add more young talent to their up-the-middle prospects on the farm.
The final piece of the deal going to Minnesota is 17-year-old outfield prospect Byron Chourio , per Mark Feinsand. He made his professional debut in the Dominican Summer League last season playing 51 games. The .838 OPS was impressive, and largely backed by his nine doubles. There is some speed there as well considering he swiped 19 bases.
There’s no denying that Minnesota is getting a very good arm back in this deal, but López will have the weight of the world on his shoulders each time he goes out, knowing a fan favorite and clubhouse good guy was his price.

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I'm not a fan of this FO, but I love this trade, selling high on Arraez for good pitching.

The Minnesota Twins have been engaged in discussions for Miami Marlins starting pitcher Pablo López since at least December. Today that became a reality when they flipped 2022 American League batting champion Luis Arraez to South Beach, per Jeff Passan. In addition, the Twins also received two Marlins prospects in the deal, including one in their top five.
Image courtesy of © David Banks-USA TODAY Sports Last season for the Marlins, Pablo López posted a 3.75 ERA along with a 3.71 FIP. He’s jumped his strikeouts over one per inning in the past three seasons and continues to develop as a pitcher. His changeup is noteworthy, and his velocity sits in the mid-90s. Having debuted as a 22-year-old in 2018, he’s just entering his age-27 season.
Minnesota has seemingly been in a never-ending quest for quality starting pitching. After acquiring Cincinnati Reds starters Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle last year, the rotation as a whole grew stronger at the top. While Joe Ryan did start on Opening Day, he projects to slot in as a more middle-to-back-end type of arm. The Twins also will return veteran Kenta Maeda this season, and they have depth in the form of Bailey Ober, Josh Winder, and Simeon Woods Richardson.
The goal for Derek Falvey this offseason was to acquire a talent that met the Gray-threshold. Ideally,
Rocco Baldelli needs another arm that can pitch in a short playoff series and be trusted to get the job done. While it may be debatable how close they truly are, López can certainly be that guy.
Like the Twins did at the deadline, their goal in acquiring arms has been to avoid rentals. They would like to have time to work with pitchers and unlock whatever ceiling is seen for each individual. López is under two more years of team control via arbitration and is projected to make just over $5 million this year per MLB Trade Rumors.
A pitcher at that level, and with that amount of team control, isn’t going to come without a significant cost. That’s where 2022 American League Batting champion Luis Arraez enters the picture. He is a talented player that is truly beloved in the clubhouse and the fanbase. When unveiling their new uniforms back in November, Minnesota opted to have him on stage, and his smile was beaming. Arraez has only known the Twins organization throughout his professional career.
 
Minnesota fans know they are giving up a guy that doesn’t strike out, gets on base, and consistently hits for a high average. However, Derek Falvey is also likely conscious of Arraez’s deficiencies. Arraez has balky knees that have kept him from finishing seasons in recent years and is limited defensively, starting 94 games at first base and designated hitter last year. He has definitely done an admirable job shoring up first base when Baldelli needed him this year, but that position could be ticketed for Alex Kirilloff , among others, in 2023.
In the deal, Minnesota also gets Jose Salas from Miami, per Craig Mish. An infield prospect currently ranked 5th in the Marlins pipeline, he is a 19-year-old that spent 2022 playing at Single-A. With a .722 OPS across 109 games, Salas flashed some power blasting nine home runs. Baseball America’s profile of him this year concluded that “No matter where he winds up on the diamond, his offensive skills will make him a valuable player.” So the Twins add more young talent to their up-the-middle prospects on the farm.
The final piece of the deal going to Minnesota is 17-year-old outfield prospect Byron Chourio , per Mark Feinsand. He made his professional debut in the Dominican Summer League last season playing 51 games. The .838 OPS was impressive, and largely backed by his nine doubles. There is some speed there as well considering he swiped 19 bases.
There’s no denying that Minnesota is getting a very good arm back in this deal, but López will have the weight of the world on his shoulders each time he goes out, knowing a fan favorite and clubhouse good guy was his price.

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I honestly don't really understand the premise this article surmises.
Dyson was pitching through pain with the Giants prior to the trade, but didn't have a physical prior to the deal. Were there ANY mention of him being hurt prior to the deal? I don't recall that. 
Maeda got hurt and needed tommy john more than a year after the deal happened, and was 2nd in cy young voting in 2020. This one REALLY seems like a stretch to say the least.
Paddack, there were questions, but we'll have to see how the next 3 years play out too no? They got him for one year of a reliever, and also got a prospect. I never had issue with the trade at the time and still don't.
Donaldson, yes they were able to sign him to a solid deal. I'm glad he is "helping" the Yankees now, and I'm glad they were aggressive in moving him after the first portion of his contract. 
Mahle, he had tired arm, but from all accounts he was healthy prior to the deal, his arm is still healthy, and he was ready to throw late September had the team not just fallen all the way off the cliff. He is healthy now, and should be in line for a strong 2023 season. To say he is hurt or dealing with anything is more guessing than anything, but no injury has actually happened. Even in the article you say "And now there are questions about his health going into 2023" Where in the world has that been reported?
Montas, he is a Yankee. 

This is much ado about nothing.  Seriously.

Paddock?  Keeping a pitcher on staff while he recovers at $2.5M.  Big Mike was a good example of doing this. 
FrankieM - I was not on board with this, (and I am NOT the FO...LOL), but he didn't move the needle enough to warrant swinging a trade.  If I had Garret Cole, sure because the Frankie fills in a need of a quality 3-4 starter.

Donaldson - it wasn't his injuries that BIT the Twins.

Correa - this speculative bashing of Correa over 1 Drs report, (SFG and NYM used the same Dr), is ludicrous. 
Dyson - bad example as there was no indication of an injury.

The point of the thread was, at least as I interpreted it, was the Twins investing in players with a known injury history. 

The only ones listed here that really fits that premise is Paddock and it's for $2.5M for a player that could be an MLB starter and Buxton who everyone agrees that if he performs as at his injured rate is still a bargain.

So they didn't know Dyson was hurt before they traded for him, but he still counts as part of a purposeful trend of acquiring "distressed assets?" Not sure that really tracks.
Maeda had no injury concerns in 4 seasons in LA, but he still counts as part of a purposeful trend of acquiring "distressed assets?" Not sure that really tracks.
I'd argue Mahle wasn't a "distressed asset" either. At least the price they paid for him didn't suggest they were buying low on a "distressed asset" at all. But I'll give you that one even if I don't buy the premise.
That's 4 players (Mahle, Paddack, Donaldson, and Correa) in 6 seasons. Not sure I'd consider that a trend. Really it's just a handful of players that give fans something to complain about.

That's what your hoping Luzardo or Cabrera develop and become.  It is very hard to find an "ace" that a team is just willing to trade. There aren't a lot of true #1 Ace pitchers out there and the ones that are more than likely aren't just being dangled to trade.
You have to find a young SP who has the #1 upside that those 2 probably do and acquire them early before they are that ace. 

Hopefully everyone thinks I'm a bit less of an idiot now?

Ted gets some credit here.  Good Job.  

Last season, just before Opening Day, the Minnesota Twins got on the horn with the San Diego Padres and made a move. Fast forward to where we are now, and it’s not unfathomable to think that A.J. Preller could be open for business again.
Image courtesy of © Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports Derek Falvey sent Taylor Rogers (and Brent Rooker) to the San Diego Padres a season ago. He dealt his closer in hopes of getting immediate value in Emilio Pagan while taking a flier on the health of Chris Paddack. It didn’t work out well for anyone in year one, but Minnesota has a second season of their return to right that ship. This time around, the Twins could aim a bit higher.
Currently, the Padres project to have a top-five payroll across Major League Baseball. They shocked the sport when signing Xander Bogaerts to an 11-year, $280 million deal. He’ll be into his 40s by the time that wraps up, and they already have a star shortstop in the form of Fernando Tatis Jr., though; that is where opportunity may lie.
It seems hard to believe the Padres would want to piece parts out going into the season. The Los Angeles Dodgers are not better than last year, and San Diego is attempting to win the NL West. If there is a logical candidate in the near term, it’s probably shortstop Ha-Seong Kim. Although Tatis is suspended for a PED violation, Bogaerts can take over at shortstop, and Kim could be flipped to gather another asset of need.
The former KBO standout is not otherworldly, but he did post a 107 OPS+ last season while playing 150 games. He is a solid defender, and Kim represents an upgrade over assumed Opening Day starter Kyle Farmer. He’s only 27 years old and doesn’t hit free agency until 2027, so the acquisition cost likely would not be cheap.
The Padres present some intriguing opportunities that could come once the season begins. If they don’t play to expectations early, there are a handful of talents the organization could piece out. It’s a near certainty that Manny Machado will opt out of his deal and become a free agent again next offseason, making him an attractive rental option. Tatis Jr. could also be moved if the Padres decided his immaturity wasn’t worth keeping around. A young superstar on a long-term deal would net plenty and could be a way for San Diego to reposition themselves within the luxury tax.
From a pitching perspective, I suggest Yu Darvish or Blake Snell could be had. Both have bigger dollars remaining, which could help offset whatever the prospect capital would be assumed in return. Darvish and Snell could easily slot in among the top of Minnesota’s rotation, and for a club looking to improve upon either Sonny Gray or Tyler Mahle, that would be a path to get there.
It was good to see the Padres load up by adding Juan Soto last season, but it wasn’t enough to advance to the World Series, and there is little reason to assume he won’t be targeting the highest payday by waiting two years to reach free agency. If Preller decides that an extension before 2025 won’t happen, the way San Diego pivots throughout the next season and a half will be incredibly interesting.
The Twins have substantial money to spend this offseason yet, and there needs to be more in the way of free agency to make that happen. Trading for salaries that may be bloated but would incorporate a talent boost for the roster is a way to make it happen. The front office hasn’t shied away from making multiple deals with the same teams, and they could go down that path again here.

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This was edited to better explain. Yes, there would be a physical, but they are comfortable with what they already know and have stated that to him.

This was edited to better explain. Yes, there would be a physical, but they are comfortable with what they already know and have stated that to him.

That 270 over 9 yrs seems about right. Even giving him an opt out after 3 yrs.  That comes out as 30 mi per yr. 
 
Twins should be comfortable with his health and should already have his physical and aware of such rod in his ankle.  They should have known about it before signing the last deal even if it didn’t scare them off because it was only a 3 yr deal.  

JUST. GET. IT. DONE.

Two things:
1. Altering his style saps his value
2. His style didn't lead to the injury that had him coming up lame from a weird slide.

This really wasn't about a new trainer. It's about the fact he played 92 games despite an injury suffered immediately that required surgery. If he can avoid some fluke thing, yet again, there's no reason to believe he can't be amazing.

I don't even think this is so much on the training staff as it is bad luck. Buxton played 92 games last year despite messing up his knee on a fluke slide. He was needing injections and drains constantly. He was looking at infection. He still produced significantly and was out there that much.
We have grown accustomed to it ALWAYS being something. Maybe that continues. On the off chance that it doesn't, he's otherworldly.

Would have included him, but the late TJ makes me uncertain if he returns this year.

He may benefit if Polanco gets injured as the defensive bar to clear at 2B is not high.

Blayne is coming off a TJ return. The makeup is solid. The arm stuff is good. This is a make or break year for him.

Blayne is coming off a TJ return. The makeup is solid. The arm stuff is good. This is a make or break year for him.

Would have included him, but the late TJ makes me uncertain if he returns this year.