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Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from glunn in How Much Does the Extra-Innings Runner Hurt the Twins
This offseason Major League Baseball decided to make rather sweeping rule changes. While we’ll see new base sizes, a pitch clock, and limited shifting, it’s the rule 2020 brought us that may continue to shake things up the most. Rob Manfred decided a runner will forever start on second during extra-innings for the regular season, and it’s a bit curious how much that could hurt the Minnesota Twins.
Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports Back in 2020, after a late start to the season following Covid-19, Major League Baseball decided to make doubleheaders seven-inning games and attempt to limit their length by placing a “ghost runner” on second base during extra innings. The pairing had some validity as rosters were tighter and a risk of availability constantly plagued teams.
Now, as we have adapted to the changes on a human and worldly level, it appears that Major League Baseball will at least keep a different set of rules for longer baseball games. The problem is that not all teams will benefit equally.
Yes, every single organization will be playing with the same parameters, but the outcomes can’t be created equal. Baseball’s new extra-inning rule is largely similar to the shootout in hockey. Seen by National Hockey League purists as eyewash, the shootout is more for a casual fan looking for an extra bit of excitement. It certainly waters down the outcome, however, as the game is all of a sudden determined through different parameters. Hockey does a decent job addressing this by awarding the losing team with a single point for making it to overtime.
Baseball’s problem is that the standings simply aren’t set up to reflect an outcome of anything less than a win or loss. It would be overly drastic for the league to adopt a points system, but the sport has also watered down the value of a win once getting to extra innings.
If there is something that has always set baseball apart, it is that the sport is played without a clock. The only thing guaranteed in baseball is that you have 27 outs to be better than the other team. In extra-innings, each side traded opportunities with three outs at a time. Now though, it becomes who can immediately capitalize off of a manufactured scenario.
Last season Rocco Baldelli’s club played 15 extra-inning games In them, they went 5-10 with just a -3 run differential. The year prior, in 2021, Minnesota played 23 extra-inning games and posted a +2 run differential. During the first season of a runner being placed on second base, Minnesota was 3-1 with a +1 run differential. As a whole, the volatility of outcomes appears to be drastic.
It is not a benefit to routinely play extra-inning games. With a 26-man roster and only 40 players to choose from at any given time, racking up lengthy results isn’t a sustainable path to health. What is problematic is that results are determined differently once getting to those extra-inning games, and not every team will have the same amount of instances to compare.
Carrying a strong nine-inning record, but dropping games in which you have a runner start on second to open an inning seems counterproductive in evaluating the overall talent of a club. On the flip side, a team finding ways to consistently produce when given the advantage of a placed runner could make up for a lacking performance in standard length games.
Having a “ghost runner” certainly isn’t a rule change as substantial as having robot umpires would be, but it may be the one with the greatest impact on the win column. Playing the game differently in the regular season as opposed to the postseason is something both the NHL and NFL have done for a long time. In both of those cases though, the league’s evaluate said outcomes differently. Baseball isn’t going to have ties, and you aren’t receiving half a win for an extra-inning loss.
When a strong extra-inning team squeaks into the postseason by a win or two against a team that didn’t go past nine innings very often, this discussion could get that much more interesting.
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Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from glunn in Can the Twins Get a Consistent Joe Ryan in 2023?
A year ago the Minnesota Twins gave the ball to Joe Ryan on Opening Day. Despite making a trade for a frontline starter with a more significant track record, it was the young rookie who got the call. What adjustments he makes for big games could be the narrative of his sophomore season.
Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports Needing pitching help, and unlikely to get it from free agents Dylan Bundy or Chris Archer, the Twins swung a trade for Sonny Gray last offseason. Dealing former top prospect Chase Petty was a substantial cost, and while Gray came with a pretty impressive track record, it wasn’t enough to earn him the first start of the season. He was very active in negotiations of a new Collective Bargaining Agreement, so he needed a few more days before he was ready to make his first start.
When the Twins flipped an aging Nelson Cruz to the Tampa Bay Rays, it was shocking to see them get something of significant value. Joe Ryan was a Top 100 prospect, and he came along with Drew Strotman. Ryan’s stuff doesn’t light up the radar gun, but everywhere he worked for Tampa since being a 7th round pick in the 2018 draft out of Cal State - Stanislaus showed strong results.
Not surprisingly, Ryan continued to see encouraging outcomes in the big leagues. It was only a five-start cameo in September of 2021, but his 27 starts last year produced a solid 3.55 ERA. His 3.99 FIP suggested it wasn't just "smoke and mirrors," and even without an upper-90s fastball, he still produced a shiny 9.2 K/9.
Little about Ryan’s season was disappointing as a whole, and as a 26-year-old rookie, there is plenty to build off of in 2023. He is unlikely to start on Opening Day, as Gray will have the benefit of a full spring training to be ready, and he could be as low as 5th in the rotation. Additions of Tyler Mahle, Pablo Lopez, and the return of Kenta Maeda all bring considerable depth, and that makes Ryan a valuable back-end starter. If he wants to take his game to another level, doing it against the best competition is the next step.
It’s fair to note that the AL Central is one of baseball’s weakest divisions. Although the Guardians and White Sox provide a challenge, there have been no juggernauts for quite some time. Both Kansas City and Detroit happily take their lumps at the bottom of the group, and that allows for plenty of opportunity to shove with scheduled regularity.
Talking to reporters down in Fort Myers, Ryan had some thoughts on facing tougher teams. He said, "I’m never really gonna be like … I mean, I expect to do well, so then the bad ones are highlighted more. I don’t really sit on my good stretches much, because that’s what I expect. So that’s kind of like that’s my baseline mentality, I don’t know if it’s a good thing or a bad thing. I think a good start is just how the day was supposed to go. So it feels just like a good day in the offseason. And a bad start feels like you got a couple tickets or something, and someone slashed your tires and stole your car."
There isn’t any surprise behind the premise that a pitcher would struggle against better opponents, but the division last season for Ryan was stark. When facing teams above .500 in 2022, Ryan allowed a .760 OPS and 14 of his 20 home runs. In 14 games against those opponents his ERA was an inflated 4.81, and the win-loss record charged to him sat at 3-6. When facing teams under .500, Ryan recorded a 10.5 K/9 with a 2.31 ERA and a 10-2 record.
Wins and losses aren’t indicative of much from a pitcher-record standpoint, but it is notable how much more dominant Ryan was against weaker competition in nearly the same amount of opportunities. The final results were reflective of much more effective work, and it was clear he found ways to avoid letting small things spiral.
For Ryan and the Twins, making sure to address better competition is a must in 2023. Not only will Minnesota face their divisional opponents less over the course of the season, but they will play every team in baseball for at least one series as well. Knowing the Central houses weaker opponents, Ryan will face better hitters on a more consistent basis.
It may not be about getting Ryan to replicate the same level of dominance against lackluster teams, but pushing his ERA toward 4.00 against the good teams would help. He has displayed an impressive knowledge and feel for the game, and working through ways to challenge and beat the best will only unlock more doors for him.
Looking for more success, Ryan told reporters this week in Ft. Myers that he has changed things up a bit. Regarding talk of a new pitch, he said, "A little true, I’d say, like the slider we worked on in September that we were throwing at the end of the season, started to work to refine that this offseason. And then added a little split-change in there."
Ryan also got in some work with Driveline this offseason. He considered it a good experience. "We worked on that (pitch shape) a lot. A couple of us went up there at the end of the offseason and put the whole package together, and it was just good to see what the possibilities were and just learn kind of... it helps me a lot to know the reason for things sometimes."
The Twins haven’t had the starting pitching depth they do right now in years, and being able to see someone like Ryan round out the rotation is exciting. How far he can continue to substantiate performance remains to be seen. Finding a way to be better against better teams is the next step in his development. With how difficult the Twins schedule is immediately in April, we won’t need to wait long in order to find out if he’s up to the task.
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Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from MN_ExPat in Second Base Is Twins Most Intriguing Position in 2023
The ONLY reason I can't get completely on board with this is chemistry. Correa and Polanco are pretty tight. Obviously that could've been said for Arraez as well and they made that move. I'd agree though, Polanco isn't with the Twins in 2024.
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Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from mikelink45 in Second Base Is Twins Most Intriguing Position in 2023
I don't know that Julien is more than a DH. He's going to force Minnesota's hand with his bat, but he's a lesser defender than even Polanco.
Solano is a fine depth addition, but forcing a 26-year-old Larnach to AAA for it is suboptimal IMO
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Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from baul0010 in Second Base Is Twins Most Intriguing Position in 2023
I don't know that Julien is more than a DH. He's going to force Minnesota's hand with his bat, but he's a lesser defender than even Polanco.
Solano is a fine depth addition, but forcing a 26-year-old Larnach to AAA for it is suboptimal IMO
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Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from Heiny in Second Base Is Twins Most Intriguing Position in 2023
I don't know that Julien is more than a DH. He's going to force Minnesota's hand with his bat, but he's a lesser defender than even Polanco.
Solano is a fine depth addition, but forcing a 26-year-old Larnach to AAA for it is suboptimal IMO
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Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from weitz41 in Second Base Is Twins Most Intriguing Position in 2023
I don't know that Julien is more than a DH. He's going to force Minnesota's hand with his bat, but he's a lesser defender than even Polanco.
Solano is a fine depth addition, but forcing a 26-year-old Larnach to AAA for it is suboptimal IMO
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Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from tarheeltwinsfan in Second Base Is Twins Most Intriguing Position in 2023
The ONLY reason I can't get completely on board with this is chemistry. Correa and Polanco are pretty tight. Obviously that could've been said for Arraez as well and they made that move. I'd agree though, Polanco isn't with the Twins in 2024.
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Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from tarheeltwinsfan in Second Base Is Twins Most Intriguing Position in 2023
I don't know that Julien is more than a DH. He's going to force Minnesota's hand with his bat, but he's a lesser defender than even Polanco.
Solano is a fine depth addition, but forcing a 26-year-old Larnach to AAA for it is suboptimal IMO
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Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from Dman in Second Base Is Twins Most Intriguing Position in 2023
The ONLY reason I can't get completely on board with this is chemistry. Correa and Polanco are pretty tight. Obviously that could've been said for Arraez as well and they made that move. I'd agree though, Polanco isn't with the Twins in 2024.
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Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from Dave The Dastardly in Second Base Is Twins Most Intriguing Position in 2023
I don't know that Julien is more than a DH. He's going to force Minnesota's hand with his bat, but he's a lesser defender than even Polanco.
Solano is a fine depth addition, but forcing a 26-year-old Larnach to AAA for it is suboptimal IMO
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Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from nclahammer in Twins Daily 2023 Top Prospects: #2 Royce Lewis, SS
Now having made his Major League debut and looking to get back in 2023, the expectations for the former top pick have never been higher. If we’ve seen anything to this point, it’s that counting him out isn’t a great idea.
Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints Age: 23 (DOB: 6/5/1999)
2022 Stats: 12 G, .300/.317/.550, 4 2B, 2 HR, 2.4% BB, 12.2% K
National Top 100 Rankings:
BA: 82 | MLB: 46 | BP: 40
What's To Like
After not playing in professional baseball since the 2019 season, 2022 represented an opportunity to see Royce Lewis back in game action. He had nowhere to play outside of St. Paul for alternate site action in 2020, and then he suffered a fluke knee injury after tearing his ACL in Texas before the 2021 season.
There was plenty of reason to be uncertain about what Lewis would bring to the table given his time off, but he picked right back up where things ended during 2019 Arizona Fall League action. Although his swing left plenty to be desired during the regular season in 2019, his .975 OPS across 22 games for Salt River was plenty exciting.
Lewis began the 2022 season with Triple-A St. Paul. It was a substantial leap given he played just 33 games at Double-A two years prior, but he looked every bit like he belonged. In 24 games to start the season, Lewis owned a .993 OPS and had an even more impressive 20/17 K/BB ratio. His plate discipline translated to a .430 OBP, and he blasted a trio of home runs alongside 11 doubles.
After an injury to starting shortstop Carlos Correa, Lewis found himself making his major-league debut at a position some wondered whether he could hold down. The bat played in the big leagues, and although the plate discipline slid some, he more than held his own offensively. In the field, Lewis looked the part of a natural shortstop and made plenty of throws that suggested he could stick at the position. Even after Correa returned from injury, Lewis still found a way to force his way onto Rocco Baldelli’s 26-man roster. What’s Left to Work On
Similar to the situation entering 2022, Lewis will again need to prove he’s healthy and ready for the next challenge. After making a brief cameo in centerfield filling in for Byron Buxton, Lewis tore his ACL again in a fluke collision with the wall. He has every idea how to rehab the injury a second time around, and it’s clear he came back strong, but the proof will need to be there again. This time around Lewis will also be returning to a new position. He played third base in high school and could factor there with Jose Miranda, or he could play second base with Jorge Polanco. There will be opportunities at shortstop, but the bulk of that time is going to go to Correa in the foreseeable future. Getting Lewis reps around the diamond at St. Paul will be a must early on this summer. When it comes to production at the plate, Lewis will also need to work on consistency. His 12 game sample size was great, but indicative of very little. He struck out just five times in 41 plate appearances, but he also only drew one walk. Bringing the plate discipline and on-base prowess from Triple-A in 2022 is something that Minnesota would love to see. His swing has calmed down quite a bit, and working to make that habit needs to continue as well. What’s Next
For Lewis, it’s going to be continued rehab the rest of the spring and into the early summer. He has indicated feeling better, sooner than he did last time around. Recovering from his previous ACL injury, Lewis came back a bit stronger and was clocked running record speeds down the first base line. It remains to be seen how that will go after a second procedure, but his body continues to be something that matures.
Minnesota fans can expect to see Lewis play for the Saints again at some point this summer, but betting on it being a long-term thing seems relatively foolish considering how quickly he worked through the level a year ago. Character has long been off the charts for Lewis, and expecting another setback to hold him down for long doesn’t seem wise. There isn’t much left for Lewis to prove on the farm, so as soon as he’s health and producing, he’ll be donning the Twins new threads at Target Field. Feel free to discuss Royce Lewis as a prospect and ask as many questions as you like in the COMMENTS below.
Previous Installments
Honorable Mention
Prospects 21-30
Prospects 16-20
Prospects 11-15
Prospect #10: Austin Martin, SS
Prospect #9: Louie Varland, RHP
Prospect #8: Jose Salas, INF
Prospect #7: Connor Prielipp, LHP
Prospect #6: Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP
Prospect #5: Edouard Julien, 2B
Prospect #4: Marco Raya, RHP
Prospect #3: Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF
Prospect #2: Royce Lewis, SS
Prospect #1: Coming Tomorrow!
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Ted Schwerzler reacted to Tk33 in The Twins Have Their Own Adam Thielen
Rah rah rabbits! Go Jacks!
Seriously......you should see the field he played on. We had a better venue at our high school in Brookings than the Jack's field at the time. And that is meant as a serious insult to State's baseball facilities at the time because the HS/Legion field was nothing fancy.
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Ted Schwerzler reacted to Beast in The Twins Have Their Own Adam Thielen
Really cool story.
Its hard has hell to get a leg up in any sport when you’re coming from rural Minnesota (Northfield is borderline, but we’ll give it to him). The internet has changed that a bit, but still very difficult to get noticed. Then, tack on a small college in the middle of nowhere, independent leagues, etc. Talk about beating the odds.
It takes a set of stones to stick with a dream like that. When you have a family to feed, it’s got to be nearly impossible to turn down the safe road of selling insurance, teaching gym, etc. That’s said without knowing his history. Maybe he was born into a very wealthy family or has a successful spouse that allows some flexibility there. No idea.
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Ted Schwerzler reacted to mikelink45 in The Twins Have Their Own Adam Thielen
I love his story. With Pagan and Lopez in the BP he is far from the big question mark. I would love to see him continue to succeed.
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Ted Schwerzler reacted to JD-TWINS in The Twins Have Their Own Adam Thielen
Hope for his sake he holds up again this year!! Nice story & glad he got some pay-off!
He’s a big piece for our Pen in ‘23
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Ted Schwerzler reacted to Althebum82 in The Twins Have Their Own Adam Thielen
Nice comparison. An additional element to the story is the fact that while born in nearby Northfield, Thielbar grew up and played high school ball in tiny Randolph, and played for the Saints before they became the AAA home for the Twins. He is a real testimony to the belief in himself while continuing to improve his skills and talents. As a reliever he will never win twenty games, but if he can extend his career long enough a comparison to the small town beginning of Rothsay's Dave Goltz accomplishments could also be made.
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Ted Schwerzler reacted to EGFTShaw in The Twins Have Their Own Adam Thielen
Very nice piece. It takes an incredible amount of heart to keep at it when you're not given a chance to succeed.
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Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from nclahammer in Twins Daily 2023 Top Prospects: #10 Austin Martin, SS
Now entering the top 10 and counting down the best of Minnesota’s prospects, we begin with a player that was acquired by the organization, rather than drafted.
Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge Age: 23 (DOB: 3/23/1999)
2022 Stats (AA): 406 PA, 241/.367/.316, 2 HR, 35 RBI, 35 SB
ETA: 2023
2022 Ranking: 1
National Top 100 Rankings
BA: NR | MLB: NR | ATH: NR | BP: NR
What's To Like?
Austin Martin was brought into the Minnesota Twins organization, along with Simeon Woods Richardson, when the front office traded Jose Berrios to the Toronto Blue Jays. It was Martin that was the headliner of that package, and that’s not a surprise given he was taken 5th overall in the 2020 Major League Baseball draft.
Martin debuted in the Twins system last year playing just under 40 games at Double-A Wichita. He brought an .807 OPS from the Blue Jays stems, and finished the year with a .779 OPS for the Wind Surge. It was clear that Martin’s best offensive skills included a strong on-base ability, and utilizing significant speed on the basepaths.
Sent back to Double-A in 2022, Martin struggled. His 90 games resulted in just a .683 OPS and it was clear there was an emphasis being put on tapping into power. The Twins made adjustments to Martin’s swing in hopes of recording more doubles and home runs. That didn’t work, and the results spoke for themselves.
Martin then went to the Arizona Fall League and ended his season on a very high note. Putting together a .936 OPS across 21 games against the best prospects in baseball, there is still plenty of reason to believe he can be a big-league regular. Across the action in Arizona, he hit just one homer but racked up six doubles. The power probably isn’t ever going to come, but that could make his path to the big leagues more straightforward.
What's Left to Work On
It’s questionable at best as to whether Martin can remain at shortstop. He has played some second base and outfield however, and could morph into a guy that has utility all over the field. His speed plays well on the grass, and while his arm strength is nothing to write home about, it works at other positions. With Minnesota having seen so many debuts a season ago, it’s entirely possible that Martin makes it to the big leagues this year. Pushing him to Triple-A St. Paul makes a good deal of sense, and allowing him to be an on-base machine while simplifying the approach could right the course in a big way. He had almost neutral strikeout to walk numbers last season, and slotting in as a traditional leadoff hitter makes a lot of sense.
After his 2022 Martin fell off all national prospect lists, but the year ahead could be a significant one for him. He’ll be 24-years-old in March, and going back to what made him so desirable out of Vanderbilt may be enough to trend his stock back upwards. It’s difficult to see a perennial All-Star or high ceiling type of talent with the power potential so limited, but there can be a regular in this type of profile and that should make the Twins happy.
What's Next
Depending on how the Twins roster shakes out with injury and performance this season, Martin could find himself contributing at second base behind Jorge Polanco. Maybe he debuts in a Nick Gordon utility type of role, and he could assume whatever playing time Kyle Farmer currently has ticketed for himself. No matter what, there is a multitude of ways in which Martin could factor into Rocco Baldelli's plans.
The sooner Martin begins to hit for average at Triple-A, and uses his on-base skills to generate runs, he'll be seen as a potential option for promotion. He's not yet on the 40-man roster, but a little juggling could certainly take care of that. Assuming the organization has all but moved on from forcing him into power potential, Martin is very close to a finished product.
Previous Rankings
Honorable Mentions
Prospects 21-30
Prospects 16-20
Prospects 11-15
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Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from DocBauer in Twins Daily 2023 Top Prospects: #10 Austin Martin, SS
Now entering the top 10 and counting down the best of Minnesota’s prospects, we begin with a player that was acquired by the organization, rather than drafted.
Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge Age: 23 (DOB: 3/23/1999)
2022 Stats (AA): 406 PA, 241/.367/.316, 2 HR, 35 RBI, 35 SB
ETA: 2023
2022 Ranking: 1
National Top 100 Rankings
BA: NR | MLB: NR | ATH: NR | BP: NR
What's To Like?
Austin Martin was brought into the Minnesota Twins organization, along with Simeon Woods Richardson, when the front office traded Jose Berrios to the Toronto Blue Jays. It was Martin that was the headliner of that package, and that’s not a surprise given he was taken 5th overall in the 2020 Major League Baseball draft.
Martin debuted in the Twins system last year playing just under 40 games at Double-A Wichita. He brought an .807 OPS from the Blue Jays stems, and finished the year with a .779 OPS for the Wind Surge. It was clear that Martin’s best offensive skills included a strong on-base ability, and utilizing significant speed on the basepaths.
Sent back to Double-A in 2022, Martin struggled. His 90 games resulted in just a .683 OPS and it was clear there was an emphasis being put on tapping into power. The Twins made adjustments to Martin’s swing in hopes of recording more doubles and home runs. That didn’t work, and the results spoke for themselves.
Martin then went to the Arizona Fall League and ended his season on a very high note. Putting together a .936 OPS across 21 games against the best prospects in baseball, there is still plenty of reason to believe he can be a big-league regular. Across the action in Arizona, he hit just one homer but racked up six doubles. The power probably isn’t ever going to come, but that could make his path to the big leagues more straightforward.
What's Left to Work On
It’s questionable at best as to whether Martin can remain at shortstop. He has played some second base and outfield however, and could morph into a guy that has utility all over the field. His speed plays well on the grass, and while his arm strength is nothing to write home about, it works at other positions. With Minnesota having seen so many debuts a season ago, it’s entirely possible that Martin makes it to the big leagues this year. Pushing him to Triple-A St. Paul makes a good deal of sense, and allowing him to be an on-base machine while simplifying the approach could right the course in a big way. He had almost neutral strikeout to walk numbers last season, and slotting in as a traditional leadoff hitter makes a lot of sense.
After his 2022 Martin fell off all national prospect lists, but the year ahead could be a significant one for him. He’ll be 24-years-old in March, and going back to what made him so desirable out of Vanderbilt may be enough to trend his stock back upwards. It’s difficult to see a perennial All-Star or high ceiling type of talent with the power potential so limited, but there can be a regular in this type of profile and that should make the Twins happy.
What's Next
Depending on how the Twins roster shakes out with injury and performance this season, Martin could find himself contributing at second base behind Jorge Polanco. Maybe he debuts in a Nick Gordon utility type of role, and he could assume whatever playing time Kyle Farmer currently has ticketed for himself. No matter what, there is a multitude of ways in which Martin could factor into Rocco Baldelli's plans.
The sooner Martin begins to hit for average at Triple-A, and uses his on-base skills to generate runs, he'll be seen as a potential option for promotion. He's not yet on the 40-man roster, but a little juggling could certainly take care of that. Assuming the organization has all but moved on from forcing him into power potential, Martin is very close to a finished product.
Previous Rankings
Honorable Mentions
Prospects 21-30
Prospects 16-20
Prospects 11-15
View full article
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Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from KnoblauchWasFramed in Where to Begin Collecting Minnesota Twins and Topps Baseball Cards in 2023
He's literally in every product as a Twins player this year, and has multiple different autographs. Yet, he never wore a Twins uniform and didn't finish the season in the organization.
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Ted Schwerzler reacted to dvaupel in Where to Begin Collecting Minnesota Twins and Topps Baseball Cards in 2023
Very low-key collecting (thanks to my son getting into it), and I've honestly found the best value to be in eBay box breaks. Every new set that comes out seems to have a number of eBay sellers posting auctions for all the cards from a particular team from however many boxes they're opening on a livestream. For the price of a few packs, I was able to get all the Twins cards from 4-6 boxes of cards from several different Topps releases last year....several complete team sets from the release plus some nice inserts (jersey cards, autographs, etc.).
Very different than collecting when I was a kid, but in the days of most packs costing $5+, it's by far the best way to get the cards of the players I actually care about (plus the occasional Curtis Terry...)
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Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from glunn in A Jose Miranda Breakout to Dream On
It wasn’t long ago that Jose Miranda could lay claim to having arguably the best offensive season in minor-league baseball. Despite having been a second round pick, he had never shown up on any top prospect lists, and it wasn’t until the 2021 explosion that he got recognition nationally. Now with a rookie season in his rear view mirror, the next step at the Major League level could be a fun one.
Image courtesy of © Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports Following a .973 OPS across 124 games split between Double-A and Triple-A, Jose Miranda found his way into the Baseball America and MLB Pipeline Top 100 prospect lists coming into the 2022 season. Even as he tore up the two levels previously, there just wasn’t room for him on the Opening Day roster.
Last season, Rocco Baldelli broke camp with Miguel Sano as his first baseman and Gio Urshela manning the hot corner. Luis Arraez was a utility defender factoring in both places, and Nick Gordon was even further insurance. As much as Miranda did the year prior, he was going to need to force his way in or wait for an opportunity.
It was an incredibly small sample size for Miranda before making his May 2nd debut with the Twins. Playing in only 21 games for Triple-A St. Paul last year, he posted just a .737 OPS during a cold month of April. His 10 doubles were promising, as were the two blasts, but everyone knew what they saw a season ago was real.
When the dust settled on his rookie season, Miranda wound up playing in 125 games for the Twins. His 116 OPS+ was a very promising start, and he rocketed his first 15 homers while still contributing a .325 on-base percentage. Through his first 80 games Miranda had an extremely impressive .811 OPS, and it wasn’t until pitchers began to figure him out and make adjustments that numbers slipped late.
Entering 2023, plenty more is known for Miranda. Urshela and Arraez are both gone. He will play the hot corner, a position he has more traditionally called home. Despite being lackluster defensively at first base last season, it’s at third where he shines a bit brighter. He’ll again have veteran Carlos Correa to guide him on the left side, and their friendship has only strengthened since the Puerto Rican descended upon Spring Training last year.
Knowing where he stands within the organization should provide some level of comfort this spring. Miranda is projected to be worth 2.6 fWAR per Steamer, which would more than double his 2022 value. A .269/.324/.449 slash line reflects a nice jump in overall OPS, and 20 homers would be a good boost from the power production a season ago. Steamer also has these numbers derived from just 133 games, which would only be slightly more than Miranda played at the big league level last season. Barring an untimely injury, he should be expected to cruise past that number. While it looked as though Correa may head to New York and play third base alongside fellow Puerto Rican Francisco Lindor, his return to Minnesota keeps him at shortstop and still has him playing alongside a countrymen. Miranda has already established himself as a substantial part of the Twins future, but it’s in 2023 that he could break out to an even higher level.
For a guy that is not at all unaware of success in this sport, seeing growth in year two of the majors would be a substantial boost for all involved. Plenty of the Twins lineup will be reliant on youth doing the heavy lifting, and for a team that isn’t old by any means, there is no reason why the 24-year-old Miranda can’t be right in the thick of it.
The rookie debut was a fun one, but a breakout similar to that of which we saw on the farm in 2021 would carry the Twins youngster to new heights.
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Ted Schwerzler reacted to nclahammer in What Did You Miss in Twins Fest Live?
Great insights, I was wondering what this event would be all about and how it went.
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Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from glunn in Twins Timeline for Prospects in 2023
Over the years, if you have been a reader of Seth Stohs’ Twins Prospect Handbook, you have seen a piece along these lines. Each year, the big-league club sees debuts of highly-anticipated prospects. While some happen due to injury and others take place because of performance, you can bet Minnesota will welcome some fresh faces to Target Field this year.
Image courtesy of © Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports Last season, Rocco Baldelli saw a significant number of players make their major-league debuts. We finally saw Royce Lewis play shortstop at Target Field, and Jose Miranda earned his way onto the roster after an incredible 2021. Simeon Woods Richardson closed out the season for the Twins, and hometown star Louie Varland took his turn as well.
Although the Twins are somewhat veteran-laden at several key spots, we’ll still see plenty of prospects pop up along the way this season. Trying to pick one player per month, here are a few names we could see for the first time in 2023:
April - To Be Determined
Prior to being traded for Michael A. Taylor, there was reason to believe that Evan Sisk could find himself in this spot. Acquired from the St. Louis Cardinals for J.A. Happ, he's a high strikeout guy at Triple-A that hasn't been able to calm the walks. Maybe the Twins didn't see it happening and flipped him. If another prospect is going to debut this soon in 2023, it will likely be to replace an arm in the bullpen.
May - Austin Schulfer
Working as the Double-A Wichita closer for the first half of the year, Schulfer dominated. He then struggled across 32 2/3 innings at Triple-A St. Paul. Having moved fully to a bullpen role following the 2021 season, Schulfer looks the part of a quality major-league reliever. He should be called upon at some point this season when the bullpen could use a fresh arm. Starting strong for the Saints is a must in 2023.
June - Jordan Balazovic
Previously the best starting pitching prospect in the Twins system, things couldn’t have gone worse for Balazovic in 2022. He got off to a late start due to a knee injury, and despite suggesting he was healthy, never got back on track. The walk and home run rates skyrocketed last year, but turning it back to his 2021 and earlier numbers, Balazovic could rekindle some of the same prospect allure that made him a consensus top 100 type coming into the year.
July - Brent Headrick
A 9th-round pick in 2019, Headrick was added to the 40-man roster this offseason. His 4.81 ERA at Double-A was a byproduct of the longball, but he has shown the ability to generate strikeouts as a starter. Another lefty, Minnesota could opt to push him into a bullpen role, but either way, he’ll have ample opportunity to work his way toward Triple-A and beyond this season.
August - Brooks Lee
Taken with their most recent 1st round pick, Minnesota fans may see Lee as soon as this year. While it may look like he’s blocked on the dirt, there is no reason that he couldn’t play second base if Jorge Polanco is hurt or struggles. Lee looked incredibly advanced during his professional debut, and that justified promotions all the way up to Double-A.
September - Austin Martin
Once the key piece of a Jose Berrios trade, Martin’s prospect shine has faded some. He didn’t hit for power last season, and it led to a frustrating year at Double-A. His Arizona Fall League season went well, however, and returning to more of a pure hitter could be a good change. He may find a role in the outfield or move off of shortstop, but Martin figuring into Minnesota’s plans behind Byron Buxton may make some sense late.
October - Matt Canterino
This is truly a wild card as Canterino is currently rehabbing from Tommy John surgery last summer. He has great strikeout stuff, and while his delivery is unconventional, it may work exceptionally well in the bullpen. The former Rice product may be well served to put his starting days behind him, and if the Twins are in a run for the postseason, Canterino could provide a big boost to the bullpen.
What prospects are you most excited for in 2023 and who not on this list do you think could debut?
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