Vanimal46

Spot on, stringer bell. The offense never held up their end of the bargain. I would look at the roster on B-Ref and see all of these guys with OPS+ over 100. It never jived with what we saw on the field. Jose Miranda needs 4 RBI in the final 3 games, otherwise we will end the season with no one hitting 70 RBI. Brutal. 

If the pitching wasn’t over performing at the beginning of the year, we would finish the year with 90+ losses. It was predictable that they’d regress to the mean, and it was assumed that the offense would take over more. Didn’t happen. It was also planned that prospects would take over throughout the season for under performing vets. That also didn’t happen. 

Roster turnover needs to happen. We need to strip away the redundancies on the roster. Mainly our abundance of LH hitting corner OF, and back of the rotation SP. IMO it’s time to say goodbye to some long term core players like Kepler and Polanco.

If we end up running it back with the vast majority of players and blame it all on injuries, that’s a recipe for another below .500 season. 

I like this development. It still isn’t enough to get me to tune in though. All star games in any major sport does absolutely nothing for me. The only thing baseball has going for them is the game doesn’t fundamentally change. You still need to pitch, hit, and field. Whereas in other sports there is zero effort and zero defense being played. 

1 hour ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

Forget the position player, bring in a pitching machine loaded with wiffle balls. But don't let it throw more than a hundred pitches... Tommy John is expensive.

I would rather see 71 year old Tom Kelly in Zubas as a stogie in his mouth feeding the pitching machine instead of position players throwing 40 MPH floaters. If I were at Target Field and saw Nick Gordon warming up on the mound, I’d walk to the car. 

17 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

This is boring, I agree but it will work itself out. A few position players suffer arm injuries and the practice will be reduced. I am also in favor of the batting team use their skills to score 20 runs as opposed to swinging for the fences and not taking the game seriously because the game is out of hand. 

I hate it when position players pitch because it is a lazy solution.

I’m not sure position players will hurt their arms when they’re throwing 45 MPH floaters to home plate. I would love to see a team decide to bat around and score 20 runs because a position player is in there. Because the way things are trending, it’s making a mockery of the game.

We’re better off having a concede/forfeit rule in place than continue seeing position players pitch every week. 

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

I agree the situation isn't as big a deal as some think. OTOH, DFA'ing Urshela is not aging very well.

 

Very true. The problem is becoming even better now because there’s no real place you can say he’d be better than the incumbent. Maybe LF? Maybe. 

He could still take over Gordon’s spot but then all we’re debating over is Lewis playing 1-2 times a week as a fill in somewhere. 

I find this whole situation to be not a big deal. In fact, I think this is a great problem to have. No one realistically thought Lewis was an MLB option preseason, and now he’s a part of the conversation after an 11 game sample size. Until a roster move is made such as DFA’ing Urshela or Gordon, there’s not much to be done about it. 

Big fan. Thanks!

On 10/20/2021 at 1:09 PM, Doctor Gast said:

Andrew, love your article! Love your common sense backed up with unbias data. I encourage you to write as often as you can because you're a pleasure to read and to disarm any false ideas out there. 

I concur 100%. Promote @Andrew Mahlketo the front page of TD! 

This is an excellent, well thought out article about his potential contract extension. Well done! The AAV doesn’t scare me. Neither does the incentives to be honest. It’s the number of years that terrifies me.

This negotiation is one of the most unique discussions in MLB history. There’s frankly very few, if any (I can’t think of one) examples in the past with players who have only played 100+ games once in their controllable years with a team. I’m glad my employment is not in consideration making this decision. 

If we end up extending him through his mid 30s, we have to be very confident his newly found power is sustainable. Otherwise, halfway through that contract he’ll become an anchor in the organization instead of the beaming light of hope he is today. 

If I were Derek Falvey, I would try like hell to make that extension 5 years or less. I’m way more comfortable with the potential of losing him at 32/33, rather than being contractually obligated to him through 35. 

Love it. I’m pretty much in alignment with you with this plan. We need to sign one of the premiere SS free agents long term and let the chips fall later with Martin and Lewis. 

I think you’re selling this roster short to be honest. Looks like a competitive roster that can compete for at least a wild card to me…Massive upgrade at SS, 3 pitchers who can slot ahead of Ober and Ryan. I give up predicting what relievers are going to do. For all I know that cobbled together group is a top 10 or bottom 10 unit. I’m not a huge fan of Arraez at 3B and Rooker in LF, but we have reinforcements who can end up playing at those positions. And there’s room in the budget to acquire help at the trade deadline if we’re above .500. 

I like Big Mike. The Twins seem to like him, and he seems to like it here. I would welcome him back because we need consistency and stability in the rotation. He’ll rarely give you 7-8 strong innings, but he almost always gives you 5-6 good innings each outing. I think you hit the nail on the head with the contract proposal. 2/$22 with incentives based on IP. Sign me up. 

34 minutes ago, goulik said:

I find it impossible to discuss the full list of drops without knowing the full list of "need to protect from the Rule V" You have the obvious drops and you have the fringe. Well, if you have to add x number of players, you need to drop enough to make room. This is the difference maker for the Garlicks, Astudillos, Gordon's of the world.

Here’s a list of rule 5 adds and fringe adds courtesy of @Danchat

As far as position players go, Miranda and Lewis are easy adds. 

38 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

Yeah ... it's really hard to know where the thinking is. Garlick and Rooker both have options, so I'd say Refsnyder is the odd man out of those three. I'm not sure who provides the most value, maybe none of them, but I can't see them keeping all of them. Simmons is an obvious gone, but ... and I hope not ... but they could re-sign him? But if they do, (but oh man, I hope they don't) likely won't happen immediately, so they can use his roster spot up front and make room again for him later.

They will have to find roster spots for Kirilloff and Garlick (if they keep him) at the end of the season. That is accomplished with Maggi and Simmons gone. I think they keep people on until they have to remove them.

Pitchers will be an interesting discussion. I split this up between position players and pitchers because I just thought it would be too long a list to go through at once, but maybe I should add them in and make this one discussion? And then you start thinking about the rule 5 adds ... so many related parts.

 

It will definitely be interesting how they split the pitchers and position players on the 40 man. As I count, there’s potentially 15-17 spots taken up already. How many are left? Do we need to reserve 20-23 spots for pitchers? 

I hope Polanco remains at 2B. His skillset was stretched thin before his 2 ankle surgeries. Keep him at 2B and let him rake at the plate. 

I am in full agreement with @chpettit19believing there isn’t a true SS prospect in the organization. I want to take advantage of this historic SS free agent class and land one of Seager, Correa, or Baez. I simply won’t believe they’ll spend big money on pitching until I see it. There’s better odds they’ll do it for an everyday position player at a premium spot like SS. 

Most of those players will likely remain with the team. The people most at risk of losing their 40 man spot:

Simmons - obviously 

Cave - He’s had a tough go of things in 2020 and 2021. It’s time to find someone better, or use his spot for another prospect. 

Astudillo - His “positional flexibility” has been reduced to corner IF/OF spots. Rarely as a catcher anymore. I think Gordon’s performance in September gives him the edge as utility guy. 

Maggi - Just an honorary nomination this year for being a long time minor leaguer. He shouldn’t be considered a short or long term player on the 40 man. 

People that I wouldn’t be surprised if they were jettisoned from the roster or kept are Garlick, Refsnyder, and Rooker. They’re decent depth pieces. 

2 hours ago, heresthething said:

Very likely fans at Dodgers Daily don't bitch about things like the Kemp deal or even trades because the owners have a massive checkbook that can cover over any of those problems.  Money matters when it comes to the discourse on this site b/c that's how Pohlad operates.  

Sure, and the Dodgers specifically have made so many win now moves that it’s all lost in translation. I asked my Dodgers friend when the Maeda vs Graterol trade winner article came out here who he thought won the deal. That trade didn’t register on his radar because they’ve made so many blockbuster deals in the last 2 years alone. 

I do wonder if those type of arguments are central to MN sports fans or elsewhere? Do fans on Pirates Daily constantly bring up the Chris Archer trade as a reason to never trade again? Similarly to us thinking every player we let go could be the next David Ortiz? I don’t know. 

I think there is a lot of pent up frustration, jealousy, and insecurity with Minnesota sports fans that may be unique to the region. I am not an exception to this, but I try my best not to act like this all the time  

30 years without a championship in the men’s major 4 sports is the source of the frustration. Frankly, only the Vikings have gotten relatively close to a championship in those 30 years. The Twins can’t overcome the Yankees in the playoffs, the T-Wolves have been a laughingstock for 15 years, and the Wild haven’t been able to put it all together. 

I think there is a TON of jealousy from fans. You can see it on this very thread that we’re using tax dollars to support “billionaire owner overlords”. A common theme I see all the time is bitching about the highest paid player on the team, and essentially running them out of town. Joe Mauer was the local hero who could do no wrong. Then once he became the highest paid player on the team and a career altering concussion happens, the hate starts pouring in. Josh Donaldson this year has had unwarranted attacks written about him on this very site. Kirk Cousins is the most polarizing player in the state. The list goes on and on. 

Finally, I think there’s a ton of insecurity from fans. There’s a constant worry that player X will never sign here because of cold weather, or a myriad of other things that aren’t important as money. As soon as a current Minnesota sports player says they may be looking elsewhere after their contract is over, fans turn on them saying “Don’t let the door hit you on the way out.” Jimmy Butler is a prime example. He was the only reason the T Wolves were relevant for a year. The minute he expressed his concerns about the team and maybe playing elsewhere, people wanted him gone immediately. 

It’s a truly wild dynamic here. I highly doubt people at Dodgers Daily bitch about paying Matt Kemp deferred money all these years later. Or if they won or lost a trade from 2 years ago. It’s only here. And I don’t know why. 

This type of content is why I come to Twins Daily. Well done!

On 6/3/2021 at 1:59 PM, RaoulDuke said:

I find it interesting that Polanco/ Kepler/ Sano were the 3 to sign extensions early while Berrios and Buxton declined extension to get to free agency.  The 3 guys that signed after big years have struggled since, and the 2 guys to not sign have only helped their chances at a large contract.  

I wonder if those early contracts are really worth it unless you are locking up a top prospect really early. 

Next core is just starting to get its feet wet, Kiriloff and Larnach look like they will be big middle of the order bats.  Lewis will get here at some point, Duran looks legit, Donaldson/ Cruz money has to go somewhere which will be Buxton/ Berrios/ or free agency.

At the end of the day Polanco and Kepler didn’t sign outlandish contracts if they ended up as utility and 4th OF roles. Sano’s contract is turning out to be an issue. Especially if his career keeps trending to Chris Carter territory. 
 

Buxton and Berrios both signed significant signing bonuses as draft picks and both are confident in gambling on themselves. Berrios due to his durability so far won’t have an issue getting a long term contract in FA. Buxton will end up being the most complex FA negotiation, potentially ever. There hasn’t been a player entering FA with undeniable talent that’s missed 50+% of available games in their career. 

Very cool! Anything else that’s worth noting about the ballpark itself after further review? 

I’m still not sure I’d call this a win, or an even trade for Minnesota 3 years later. Alcala has a bit more Jim Hoey to him than I’d like. Dude throws hard but has no clue where it’s going to end up. Celestino is still a year or more away from being considered an MLB asset. 

I don’t think it will be as much of a fire sale as you do. Out of this list of players, only Happ is traded IMO for a modest return. It’s unlikely a contender views him as a playoff starter since the Yankees moved him to the pen in recent years. 
 

There’s a chance Big Mike is moved as well on his expiring contract if the season is lost by late July. In that case, I hope it’s a trade and sign back in FA this winter. 
 

Can’t see Garver being moved unless it’s an overpay. He’ll still be affordable and still provides offensive upside compared to most catchers around the league. 

I liked a suggestion by Nash Walker some time ago for Ketel Marte, but agree wholeheartedly with any possibility at Chris Martin as well. Love Martin, an excellent ballplayer, but he does K often. You can't wrong if you have Chris Martin as a utility player. Why would the Dodgers trade him?

Ketel Marte is another excellent trade candidate. 4 years of control at a very reasonable price. I assume that's going to take 1-2 players we are considering for a 2021 MLB spot plus another lower level minor leaguer. 

As far as why would the Dodgers trade Taylor. I think when value presents itself they would move on an expiring contract for a lottery ticket. They do have a replacement on roster already in Gavin Lux. He got his feet wet, and as a top prospect they will want to get him at-bats. Not to mention their pipeline is crazy deep. Who knows, they may have another replacement waiting in the minors too. 

Found it! Doctor Gast was the TD member who made the suggestion of Chris Taylor. 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/44211-addressing-the-twins-greatest-need/

Agreed Tony&Rodney. I purposely went for the 10-15% payroll reduction to see what it would look like. If the payroll is at $135-145 million then this blueprint shows there will be room for Cruz and maybe a better bench player too.

Thanks for stopping by and commenting! I’m sure I’ll be bored again this winter and come up with other blueprints.