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Vanimal46

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Blog Entries posted by Vanimal46

  1. Vanimal46
    It's Friday afternoon, and I'm counting the minutes until the weekend. Let's make a plan.
     
    For this exercise, I started with Matthew Taylor's spreadsheet on Twinspayroll.com, and used $125 million as the top spending level. My goal is to fall $5-10 million under that to reflect closer to a 15% payroll discount.
     
    When I started the exercise, I wondered how we could best allocate the budget if we elected not to re-sign Nelson Cruz.
     
    Let's get started...
     
    The spreadsheet shows these roster slots available to fill:
     
    LF
    DH
    4th OF
    Utility
    Utility
    Backup C
     
    Along with 4 bullpen slots and 2 slots in the starting rotation.
     
    Starting amount: $84.6 Million
     
    Internal Adds:
     
    In this blueprint, I gave LF, 4th OF, Backup C, 5th starter, and the last 2 bullpen slots to internal prospects.
     
    Alex Kirilloff gets my opening day nod in LF. If the team trusted him to start game 2 of the playoffs, they should trust him to start on Opening Day. By seniority, I chose Jake Cave as the 4th OF with a very short leash. Ryan Jeffers showed in the shortened season that he's ready for prime time and makes the team platooning with Garver. The Twins still have 3-4 prospects in the mix for the 5th spot, and I think one of them will win it. For fun, I chose Jhoan Duran. For the last two bullpen slots, Cody Stashak and Lewis Thorpe made the cut. I think Smeltzer and Thorpe will need to move to the bullpen this winter to have a shot at making the team.
     
    Running Amount: $88.2 Million
     
    Free Agents:
     
    SP #4 - Corey Kluber $10 million - This guy maybe toast. However, I can't help thinking what if he's healthy? There's very few besides Trevor Bauer who have Cy Young caliber stuff. I take that gamble with this regime's usual 1 + option year contact.
     
    RP Archie Bradley $6.5 million - Bradley instantly becomes the top free agent bullpen arm, and I think he's got the stuff to stay strong for another 2-3 years. I would offer 2/$13 and see if he bites.
     
    RP Tyler Clippard $3 million - Clippard was rock solid in the pen last year, and I'm happy to re-sign him for another season.
     
    Utility - Hanser Alberto $1 million - Admittedly I know nothing about this guy other than a quick glance at Baseball Reference. This isn't a hill I'm going to die on...
     
    DH Yasiel Puig $2 million - Here's the payoff for the blog title. I punted DH by not allocating $15 million towards the position and elect toward a rotational effort. Puig is still young enough, hits RH, and can play in the OF too.
     
    Running Amount: $110.73 million
     
    Trades:
     
    I only made one trade since they are impossible to predict. I really liked one of our member's suggestions to trade for Chris Taylor on the LA Dodgers. I have been looking for the post to give proper credit where its due and can't find it. Sorry!
     
    Chris Taylor fits the need for depth at 2B, SS, and the OF. He has 1 year left on his contract at $7.8 million. I won't claim to know exactly what it would take to acquire him. However, I believe it won't take more than a prospect playing in the lower levels of the minors, and doesn't affect anyone in consideration for a 2021 MLB roster spot.
     
    ALL IN COST: $118.53 million
  2. Vanimal46
    Over the off-season there will be PLENTY of chatter about the Twins. They're primed to be BOLD and make a YUGE splash in free agency.
     
    As a seasoned Twins fan I'm here to save you a bunch of time! The off-season is already predetermined, and your friend Vanimal found the transcript for the most DRAMATIC off-season yet...
     
    10/9: Twins exercise Nelson Cruz' option
     
    10/14: Jim Pohlad quoted in a Sid Hartman column "there will be no restrictions on payroll"
     
    11/1: Ken Rosenthal tweets the Twins are one of several teams interested in free agent pitcher Gerrit Cole.
     
    11/10: Jeff Passan tweets the Twins are attempting to schedule a meeting with Zach Wheeler's representation.
     
    11/11: Zach Wheeler signs 4/$72 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies.
     
    11/12: Lavelle E Neal writes rushed blog post saying Wheeler's representation never returned the Twins' call.
     
    12/1: Twins add 5 minor Leaguers to 40 man roster. Twins Daily writes that every player added has a floor of an average major league player, and a ceiling of a perennial all star.
     
    12/4: Jake Odorizzi signs a 5/$75 million contract with the Houston Astros.
     
    12/6: Pat Reusse writes column that the Twins gave an honest attempt to sign Odorizzi. Didn't want to commit to 5th guaranteed year.
     
    1/13: Twins sign SP Homer Bailey to minor league contract with invite to spring training.
     
    1/14: Twins season ticket holders receive automated email informing them prices will increase for the 2020 season.
     
    1/27: Jon Heyman tweets the Twins make Gerrit Cole their top priority.
     
    2/1: Dave St. Peter announces a new bar will be constructed 30 feet above the pitcher's mound held up by suspension cables! For $15,000 you can be RIGHT ON TOP of the action drinking your favorite local craft brew!
     
    2/11: Lavelle E Neal reports Jose Berrios has turned down extension offer from the Twins.
     
    2/15: Twins announce NEW FOOD offerings at Target Field.
     
    2/26: Gerrit Cole signs 8/$275 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
     
    3/4: Twins sign free agent SP Tanner Roark to 1/$12 million contract with a team option for 2nd year.
     
    3/13: Lavelle E Neal reports SP Brusdar Graterol is in team's plans to make opening day rotation.
     
    3/14: Brusdal Graterol optioned to AAA spring training.
     
    3/28: Twins realize they're still short 1 starting pitcher, re-sign Kyle Gibson to minor league contract with "opt-out" on May 1.
     
    You're welcome!
  3. Vanimal46
    Let me preface this post by acknowledging that the odds are low Machado signs with the Twins in real life. With low odds, we need to be BOLD and aggressive right upfront to schedule a meeting with him.
     
    Mr. Machado, I want you to remember 3 numbers. 60, 40, and 3. We'll go into more detail what those numbers represent.
     
    Let's start with the first number, 60. That's the number (in millions) I'm willing to offer you to play for the Twins in 2019. The organization is in a great spot financially with little to no extensive contract commitments after 2019. No one in baseball will be within $20 million of your annual salary. I hope this gets your attention.
     
    The second number is 40. And that will be your AAV of your contract with the Twins for the first 3 years of the contract. After the first year where you make $60 million, you'll drop down to $30 million and still be one of the top paid players in the game. Not even Mike Trout has an AAV of $40 million. I hope this gets your attention, Mr. Machado.
     
    Now let's talk about the last number, 3. This number is especially important because it allows you to control your own destiny. I'm willing to offer 3 opt-out clauses for you after your the 3rd year of your contract. If the team is failing to contend, it's your prerogative to opt-out and play somewhere else. However, we're confident the next wave of prospects in our system will compliment you very well from years 4-6 of the contract.
     
    So what do you think Mr. Machado? Is this bold enough for you to spend the next 6 years of your career with the Twins?
  4. Vanimal46
    http://gentlemint-media.s3.amazonaws.com/images/2012/04/18/6745f59b.jpg.505x650_q85.jpg

     
     
    ANND Welcome! To Minnesota Twins Whine Line: Detective Edition! I'm your LEAD Investigator, Vanimal, along with my trusty sidekick, the intern. Since we last checked in, both of us set down the PS4 controllers, put MLB The Show back in the case, and studied for our Private Investigator license! In the real world, we noticed that it's January 30th, and 8 out of the top 10 free agents have still yet to sign! It's a strange, boring off-season... There's been several STRONG takes about why this is happening... And we're no different! We decided to put on our Deerstalker, and dive deep into the REAL reason why recent off-seasons are boring...
     
    Collusion: It happened once before, so it could happen again, right? That's what we thought too! Until we put it to the test using real world examples... Have you ever arranged a conference call with 30 busy people before? It's NEARLY impossible to do! Plus, they would waste countless hours of time! Owners will be talking over each other, waiting for others to take themselves off mute, jumping on the line 25 minutes late, and needing to "circle back at a later time." All of that sounds exhausting....
     
    Whine Line Verdict: False.
     
    Waiting for a Sale: As consumers, we're accustomed to Black Friday, Cyber Monday, 4th of July BLOWOUTS, or "just because!" sales. Doesn't it feel good to purchase what you wanted, for a 30% discount! Of course it does! General Managers are humans too, and they want to feel like they got a discount... Now these days he could look at MLBTradeRumors, FanGraphs, even the Twins Daily Handbook to find salary projections of free agents. Where's the excitement?! The THRILL of the hunt?! Perhaps they're waiting for their Cyber Monday sale....
     
    Whine Line Verdict: Certainly possible!
     
    Too Many Options: Typically at this time of year, 1 or 2 of the top free agents are left unsigned... If that! This year, there are 4 to 8 times as many options! Is it possible that General Managers are frozen in fear because there's too many players to choose from? We took our investigation on the road to get to the bottom of it!
     
    ANNND Welcome back! We're broadcasting LIVE from the Cheesecake Factory! That's right, the home of a 20 page menu.... If you can't find something to eat here, you're not looking hard enough! In order to test this theory, the intern and I gave ourselves a 30 minute window to decide what to order...
     
    WAITER: "Here are your waters, gentleman. Do you have any questions about the menu? Or know what you want?"
    VAN: "I think we need a little bit of time. There's so many options here. Any specials?"
    WAITER: "Today's soup of the day is split-pea, and we also have a Philly cheese steak with your choice of fries, salad, fruit, onion rings, or vegetable."
    VAN: "Wow, even the sides have a bunch of options to choose from... Okay, we need some time."
     
    8 minutes later...
     
    WAITER: "Are you ready to order? Questions at all?"
    VAN: "Yeah, a few questions. I'm debating between the Avocado BLT, Philly cheese steak, Chicken Parmesan, or Chicken Enchiladas. What would you choose?"
    WAITER: "Hmm, well, our Philly is one of the most popular orders today. The Chicken Parmesan is okay, but I would recommend our Spaghetti and Meatballs over that. And frankly, you're better off going somewhere else for Mexican food."
    VAN: "That helps... And the Cobb Salad?"
    WAITER: "I mean, it's a salad.... So... How about you sir, are you ready?"
    INTERN: "I'll have the uh, chi.... No. Not that. Umm.... Can you come back to me?"
    WAITER: "Guys, I do have other tables to tend to. I'll come back later."
     
    13 minutes later....
     
    WAITER: "Okay, how about now?"
    INTERN: "I.... I...... I JUST CAN'T DECIDE! Please, come back to me, okay?"
    WAITER: "Are you crying, sir?"
    INTERN: "It's your fault! There isn't a perfect option to order... EVERYTHING has flaws!"
    WAITER: "Okay, this is getting weird. What about you, sir?"
    VAN: "I have narrowed it down to 2 items, and I will get back to you by the end of the week."
    WAITER: "This ISN'T how this works, sir. Look, guys, it's only lunch. You're just spending some money now... It's not like you're trading me your watch, or I don't know... a top prospect like Nick Gordon in order to eat. So what do you say? Let's figure this out before my shift is over, okay?"
    VAN & INTERN: "Wow... This HAS to be how Falvine feels signing free agents.... I've seen the light!"
     
    Whine Line Verdict: TRUE
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