dbminn

Would be good for Gordon to get consistent playing time and at bats. Probably was not going to happen at MLB level this year. Agree time running out for Austudillo and Cave, roster spots may be used better on somone else.

If he was removed from the 40-man roster after the season, he would be a free agent. 
I think he's done enough to put himself on the 40-man  for the full offseason and a utility player role for 2022. 

"Who I want to see help" and "who is going to help" are two different questions given the number of MiLB pitching injuries we're seeing right now.

I'll probably start worrying late-May to early-June... 

Mike, tremendous post! And really, despite endless OP's before on the front page, I'd like to see this one moved there.
 
I LOVE Eddie, even though he has made me pull my hair out many times or made me take an extra sip or two from my beverage of choice at times. I absolutely think he is a better player than given credit for at times. Like you, I've always chafed when some argue his RBI production and dismiss it as being in a good lineup and in a good spot. You still have to produce, right? And Eddie has, no doubt!
 
The problem is, with all due respect and love for Eddie, is there someone knocking on the door who could do it as well or better who is younger and cheaper?
 
We can compare Eddie and Max all day. Max is better defensively overall, younger, might have a higher ceiling, and might be better and more productive than he has been lower in the order instead of hitting #1. Also, it's really, really hard to look at the potential of Kirilloff, maybe Larnach, and NOT see better overall hitters who might not have the same "flair" but who are better overall "hitters". Power is awesome. Production is most important. Defense is really nice. But sometimes a younger player has as much or more ability to do all of that and maybe more.
 
We can't lose Eddie and Cruz in the same year. But we have, I think, at least one ready replacement for Eddie. And I think we are going to be very OK with our #1 option there. We might even be better, overall, very soon.
 
Kirilloff is going to be a stud!

Thank you, Mike. 

Thanks for the post. It does have me thinking about it.
I think there are two key factors here that somehow need to be measured.
 
1) The number of years of control. The value of that player shouldn’t be calculated beyond those years.
 
2) The salary cost of that control. A 2 WAR player on a pre-ARB contract is a valuable asset for a team. That same 2 WAR player in year two or three of arbitration and earning 10 times the pre ARB salary is a marginal asset.
 
One great deal was sending Liriano and his two months of control to the White Sox and getting all of Escobar’s control at a very low cost in his pre arb and arb seasons.

I wonder if there will be any league-wide waiver wire action during the 29-man period, or just a rush when it goes down to 26.

I feel bad for the careers going forth of most minor league free agents. I wonder how the minor league rosters would fill out, and the need for short-schedule ball at Eliz and GCL. Maybe jsut keep players downm there playing in-house games and see Eliz disappear a season early. All the Twins propsects will need playing time in the minors and since most (especially pitchers) seldom play a full season of hard ball, this aprtial season would be great for them.

Getting a major league ready position player who fills a current need, for a unheralded pitcher in rookie ball is a no-brainer.

Surprising account of Kirilloff. His bad start in May and his recovery month of July really didn't sit well with some who make up these lists.
Then Duran & Balazovic.
A very interesting mix from what we're used to.

Thanks for the thoughts, Mike. 
 
I think Downs is a winner. He's slated to be at 2B when he reaches the majors. Red Sox need a second baseman to replace Pedroia. He only has to beat out Michael Chavis next season. He was buried in LA.
 
Your comments about Graterol are spot on.

By the time Camargo develops Garver will be on the downside or DH. Anyone else one needs to remember prospect does not equal MLB player.

The Twins would and should move a AA pitching prospect for Jon Gray. He's a pitcher with the upside of Berrios and the same pay grade. Two years of Gray would cost either Duran or Balazovic, along with another prospect. They should do it in a heartbeat. The only problem is the disfunction of the Rockies front office.
 
The Twins just signed Donaldson. Like Brock said on Twitter(?), might as well put the pedal to the floor. 

A fun way of looking at Donaldson's future, Mike. 
 
I'll add a couple more that I liked to watch play. Adrian Beltre was really consistent from ages 34-37. Hit 99 HR and put up 20.6 fWAR. Chipper Jones hit 95 HR and put up 20 WAR as well. 
 
Odds are good he won't equal Beltre's run. Donaldson stays in great shape, so his biggest risk is injury. His skills will slide a bit but I don't believe they will completely fade away. 
 
 

Spin rate can't necessarily be taught but it can be enhanced. 
 
I wrote about developing fastballs with our high school program this past summer (you can read about it here). There's a consensus among the industry that you can't really teach it, you have it or you don't. Driveline says if you want a significant jump in spin rate, you add tack (rosin, bullfrog, pine tar, etc). This is another thing that the Astros have been accused of practicing, by the way. 
 
Legally, let's say you have a guy who is throwing a sub-optimal four-seam fastball -- he's cutting or turning his hand at release and reducing the spin. You can train that player to release the ball better and gain some spin (but more spin efficiency, which won't change the spin rate but a better spin efficiency will result in more carry, which keeps the pitch on that high plane like Odorizzi, rather than cutting or diving). 
 
This is where Rapsodo and Edgertronic cameras become so valuable to teams.
 

If I were the Twins, I would do either one of these two proposed trades. It would give the Twins 2 years to win two World Series.

dbminn makes a GREAT point.  Their top prospect is a SS (Brendan Rogers) and he's blocked by Story.  Personally, I like this trade/plan better than the Mookie Betts speculation because Story stays a Twin for several years and he makes us better defensively.  The only thing I would do further is trade Eddie Rosario in a package to the D-Backs for Robbie Ray and Dinkel ?? (the kid who is just 25 and strikes everybody out.  I would still sign Pineda in this scenario and have a staff of:  Berrios, Wheeler, Gray, Odorizzi and Ray with Pineda to be available to start or relieve like Graterol.  That way you've got depth in the starting rotation and power arms in the bullpen.  If the Twins added Story, say hello to Kiriloff or Larnach in LF.  
1.  Arraez   3B
2.  Polanco 2B
3.  Cruz      DH
4.  Story     SS
5.  Kepler   RF
6.  Sano     1B
7.  Garver   C
8.  Kiriloff/Larnach  LF  (these 2 kids can flat out HIT)
9.  Buxton     CF
SP Berrios, Wheeler, Gray, Odorizzi, R. Ray
BP  T. Rogers, May, T. Duffey, Graterol, Pineda, Romo, etc...
 
This would be a HELL of a team !!!

I don't see the Rockies giving up Story in any deal, but I like the idea if the Twins could get it done. I would move Polaco to 2nd and Arraez to left and trade Rosario for a good starter like Glasnow if the Rays would do it.

This would be a good way to build the team.  I would switch Polanco and Arraez, Polanco's arm isn't good enough for third base.

I would personally pass on Yates for that price for a trade. Would rather see Brusdar in the pen and then sign Will Smith. Leave Yates and Kinzler for other teams. If you sign Will Smith for 3yrs/48 mil instead of trading for Yates and signing Kinzler your payroll is still only around 138 mil

I've been a lurker on this site for a couple years now, but have never before submitted a comment, post, or even created an account until now.  Thanks, and hope you enjoy!

Ugh, yeah, I wouldn't mind passing on that deal. Woof.
 
If anyone is going to reporting this type of stuff, it'd probably be Wolfson, not Reusse. Old Pat would be ripping the front office left and right in that article.

Thanks for the post - that was fun.

Killebrew was hitting HRs at a rate of 7+% in an era when non-pitchers were hitting them at about a 2.3% rate. That's three times the rate of the league.
 
Just for context...
If Max Kepler was hitting HRs at 3x the league average in 2019 (non-pitchers)...his current 501 PA would give him 58 HR on the season. Needless to say, nobody hits home runs at the rate of 3x league average anymore.