Jump to content
  • Create Account

Cap'n Piranha

Verified Member
  • Posts

    3,218
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    7

Reputation Activity

  1. Like
    Cap'n Piranha got a reaction from DocBauer in Way Too Early Offseason Plans   
    1--solidify the pitching staff.  Maeda is a decent start, I'd like to have Pineda back, but counting on Ober/Dobnak + prospects to handle the other 3 spots and any injuries to Maeda/Pineda is too much.  I personally would go with Gausman, but I'm ok with Stroman or Rodon as well.  If Syndergaard is open to a 1 year plus incentives/vesting options contract, then I'm ok with that too.
    2--figure out short.  Simmons is not an option in my mind.  He has negative WAR this year due to the cratering of his offensive game, and a sever erosion of his defensive skills (he actually has a negative UZR/150 this year, driven by making errors, and no longer having the range which would offset that).  Is he truly a bad defensive shortstop now?  Probably not, but nor do I think he's a particularly good one anymore, and for a guy about to turn 32 who is no longer hitting, I'm just not interested, especially not with all the shortstops that will be available next year, and the possibility that Lewis/Gordon/Martin could MAYBE hold that position down.  I'm good with spending 2022 finding out if any of those 3 can play short every day.
    3--figure out which young hitters are legitimate.  Can you count on Kiriloff/Larnach/Rooker/Jeffers/Martin/Miranda to be your new offensive core?  I would bypass bringing Cruz back, and trade Garver, Donaldson, and Polanco/Arraez in order to get the PAs needed to find out.  If the right offer comes, trade Garver in the offseason, and then trade JD/JP/LA at the deadline.
    4--figure out just how barren the RP corps is.  Bring in no RP's this offseason, unless you have a big opinion on an undervalued guy, or you're able to get a great deal on an established guy.  Find out if any of Thielbar/Alcala/Stashak/Strotman/Cano/Moran/Hamilton can be legitimate late inning options, or if they're all 5th/6th inning types.  If 2-3 show promise, trade Rogers and Duffey at the deadline, and sign established guys in the 2022 offseason.  If fewer show promise, trade for more prospects at the deadline next year, and then invest heavily in the 2022 offseason.
  2. Haha
    Cap'n Piranha got a reaction from h2oface in Game Thread Twins vs Reds 8/3/21 6:10 PM CDT   
    Boy, both pitchers just having mental struggles tonight, giving up all these baserunners.
  3. Like
    Cap'n Piranha reacted to Dman in Big Mike Pineda staying.   
    I think the Twins wanted an Escobar like return to let Pineda leave and no team wanted to pay that for a rental that might not be back.  There is no guarantee they can or will re-sign Pineda but I have to believe that is the plan otherwise they would have let him go for a bucket of balls.  No way do they want to pay his remaining salary if they don't want him back next year.  That just wouldn't make sense especially for the money conscious Twins. 
    If he pitches well this next month I would bet they approach him with an extension and he signs.  If he performs poorly then maybe they look at other pitchers in Free agency and see if they get something better for Pineda money.  He still needs to perform for the Twins to want him back.
    The Twins were only trading players for overpays and apparently no one wanted to overpay for Pineda so they didn't get a deal done.  If I were them I would have likely done the same thing.
  4. Like
    Cap'n Piranha got a reaction from Dman in Big Mike Pineda staying.   
    Where did I say Colome was a good signing?  You said Falvine should have signed Hand, and I gave you all kinds of numbers as to why they shouldn't have, and why signing him would not have done much, if anything, to help this year.  Would Hand have been better than Colome?  Probably, but that's hardly a high bar to clear.  Furthermore, Colome's numbers in 2020 were better than Hand's, outside of k rate, so there was no reason to think the drop off would be this precipitous.  Stop making Strawman arguments.
    I'm not praying they sign Pineda--I'd like them to, as a way to provide stability to the back end of the rotation, but there's myriad other options the Twins could pursue to get a veteran 3rd/4th starter for 2022.  Perhaps he will be elsewhere, but given how little interest there apparently was at the deadline, I think this idea that someone is desperate to acquire him and will willingly outbid the market by substantial enough a margin to render any Twins offer unacceptable is specious.
  5. Like
    Cap'n Piranha got a reaction from Dman in Big Mike Pineda staying.   
    1--Falvine doesn't care about if a kid is from MN when they're deciding to sign, nor should they.
    2--Hand had a very concerning 2020--he didn't give up a single homerun despite an under 30% GB rate, and his velocity had dropped below 92.  His swinging strike rate was down to 10.5% (lowest since 2015, the last year he started games), while his contact rate was up to almost 76% (highest since 2015).
    3--Those concerns have amplified in 2021; Hand has been worth only 0.2 WAR across 42 appearances, is striking out less than 9/9, while walking almost 4/9.  His GB rate is improved, but still under 40%, and he's now giving up homers again, leading to a 4.3 FIP and a 4.69 xFIP.  His velocity has recovered to be back over 93, but that hasn't been enough to help his swinging strike rate (lowest of his career at 7.4%) or his contact rate (above 81%.highest since 2015).  And all of this is despite having a .239 BABIP, which is the lowest he's had since 2013, when he only pitched 20.2 innings, which means there's even further regression potential.  Falvine were right to not give Hand $10M.
    As for Pineda, I think the FO believes they can compete in 2022 if things go right, but they don't want to sacrifice competitiveness in 2023/2024 in an attempt to compete in 2022.  As such, signing Pineda to eat innings next year, so you're not forced to prematurely promote Duran/Balazovic/Winder/Ryan, but can instead bring them up when they're ready is a good thing.  It also raises the floor for 2022, in case things start to go right (Maeda is closer to 2020 Maeda, Rooker becomes a top 5 DH, a fully healthy Kiriloff takes a leap, Martin forces his way into the lineup a la 2019 Arraez, and a couple of other signings work out).  As such, while I'm not saying Falvine WILL sign Pineda for 2/$20M, I don't think that's more than double what they would do, as you're implying.
  6. Like
    Cap'n Piranha got a reaction from wsnydes in Big Mike Pineda staying.   
    I wouldn't be shocked if the top crop of teams saw him as a guy who's had some injury issues, and wouldn't crack their playoff rotations.  Since the playoffs are getting close to being penciled in (there are 10 spots available, and 7 teams have >88% odds to make it, with another two above 74%), the demand for a non-game changer come October may not have been there.
  7. Haha
    Cap'n Piranha got a reaction from operation mindcrime in José Berríos Traded to Blue Jays   
    I don't need to imagine, I know!  Infinite!
    But I'll also get to experience infinite playoff wins!
  8. Like
    Cap'n Piranha got a reaction from 4twinsJA in Way Too Early Offseason Plans   
    1--solidify the pitching staff.  Maeda is a decent start, I'd like to have Pineda back, but counting on Ober/Dobnak + prospects to handle the other 3 spots and any injuries to Maeda/Pineda is too much.  I personally would go with Gausman, but I'm ok with Stroman or Rodon as well.  If Syndergaard is open to a 1 year plus incentives/vesting options contract, then I'm ok with that too.
    2--figure out short.  Simmons is not an option in my mind.  He has negative WAR this year due to the cratering of his offensive game, and a sever erosion of his defensive skills (he actually has a negative UZR/150 this year, driven by making errors, and no longer having the range which would offset that).  Is he truly a bad defensive shortstop now?  Probably not, but nor do I think he's a particularly good one anymore, and for a guy about to turn 32 who is no longer hitting, I'm just not interested, especially not with all the shortstops that will be available next year, and the possibility that Lewis/Gordon/Martin could MAYBE hold that position down.  I'm good with spending 2022 finding out if any of those 3 can play short every day.
    3--figure out which young hitters are legitimate.  Can you count on Kiriloff/Larnach/Rooker/Jeffers/Martin/Miranda to be your new offensive core?  I would bypass bringing Cruz back, and trade Garver, Donaldson, and Polanco/Arraez in order to get the PAs needed to find out.  If the right offer comes, trade Garver in the offseason, and then trade JD/JP/LA at the deadline.
    4--figure out just how barren the RP corps is.  Bring in no RP's this offseason, unless you have a big opinion on an undervalued guy, or you're able to get a great deal on an established guy.  Find out if any of Thielbar/Alcala/Stashak/Strotman/Cano/Moran/Hamilton can be legitimate late inning options, or if they're all 5th/6th inning types.  If 2-3 show promise, trade Rogers and Duffey at the deadline, and sign established guys in the 2022 offseason.  If fewer show promise, trade for more prospects at the deadline next year, and then invest heavily in the 2022 offseason.
  9. Like
    Cap'n Piranha got a reaction from Mike Sixel in Way Too Early Offseason Plans   
    1--solidify the pitching staff.  Maeda is a decent start, I'd like to have Pineda back, but counting on Ober/Dobnak + prospects to handle the other 3 spots and any injuries to Maeda/Pineda is too much.  I personally would go with Gausman, but I'm ok with Stroman or Rodon as well.  If Syndergaard is open to a 1 year plus incentives/vesting options contract, then I'm ok with that too.
    2--figure out short.  Simmons is not an option in my mind.  He has negative WAR this year due to the cratering of his offensive game, and a sever erosion of his defensive skills (he actually has a negative UZR/150 this year, driven by making errors, and no longer having the range which would offset that).  Is he truly a bad defensive shortstop now?  Probably not, but nor do I think he's a particularly good one anymore, and for a guy about to turn 32 who is no longer hitting, I'm just not interested, especially not with all the shortstops that will be available next year, and the possibility that Lewis/Gordon/Martin could MAYBE hold that position down.  I'm good with spending 2022 finding out if any of those 3 can play short every day.
    3--figure out which young hitters are legitimate.  Can you count on Kiriloff/Larnach/Rooker/Jeffers/Martin/Miranda to be your new offensive core?  I would bypass bringing Cruz back, and trade Garver, Donaldson, and Polanco/Arraez in order to get the PAs needed to find out.  If the right offer comes, trade Garver in the offseason, and then trade JD/JP/LA at the deadline.
    4--figure out just how barren the RP corps is.  Bring in no RP's this offseason, unless you have a big opinion on an undervalued guy, or you're able to get a great deal on an established guy.  Find out if any of Thielbar/Alcala/Stashak/Strotman/Cano/Moran/Hamilton can be legitimate late inning options, or if they're all 5th/6th inning types.  If 2-3 show promise, trade Rogers and Duffey at the deadline, and sign established guys in the 2022 offseason.  If fewer show promise, trade for more prospects at the deadline next year, and then invest heavily in the 2022 offseason.
  10. Like
    Cap'n Piranha got a reaction from Mike Sixel in Big Mike Pineda staying.   
    1--Falvine doesn't care about if a kid is from MN when they're deciding to sign, nor should they.
    2--Hand had a very concerning 2020--he didn't give up a single homerun despite an under 30% GB rate, and his velocity had dropped below 92.  His swinging strike rate was down to 10.5% (lowest since 2015, the last year he started games), while his contact rate was up to almost 76% (highest since 2015).
    3--Those concerns have amplified in 2021; Hand has been worth only 0.2 WAR across 42 appearances, is striking out less than 9/9, while walking almost 4/9.  His GB rate is improved, but still under 40%, and he's now giving up homers again, leading to a 4.3 FIP and a 4.69 xFIP.  His velocity has recovered to be back over 93, but that hasn't been enough to help his swinging strike rate (lowest of his career at 7.4%) or his contact rate (above 81%.highest since 2015).  And all of this is despite having a .239 BABIP, which is the lowest he's had since 2013, when he only pitched 20.2 innings, which means there's even further regression potential.  Falvine were right to not give Hand $10M.
    As for Pineda, I think the FO believes they can compete in 2022 if things go right, but they don't want to sacrifice competitiveness in 2023/2024 in an attempt to compete in 2022.  As such, signing Pineda to eat innings next year, so you're not forced to prematurely promote Duran/Balazovic/Winder/Ryan, but can instead bring them up when they're ready is a good thing.  It also raises the floor for 2022, in case things start to go right (Maeda is closer to 2020 Maeda, Rooker becomes a top 5 DH, a fully healthy Kiriloff takes a leap, Martin forces his way into the lineup a la 2019 Arraez, and a couple of other signings work out).  As such, while I'm not saying Falvine WILL sign Pineda for 2/$20M, I don't think that's more than double what they would do, as you're implying.
  11. Like
    Cap'n Piranha got a reaction from rationalfan in Big Mike Pineda staying.   
    I don't think you understand how prospect ceilings work.  It's called the ceiling precisely because they haven't proven it.  If they do prove it, then they've reached their ceiling.  If everything works out perfectly, Duran, Balazovic, Winder, Ryan, and SWR will all be as good or better than Berrios.  It's also a very real possibility that none of them are ever as good as Berrios, but having 5 guys with a Berrios ceiling is preferable to 3 guys with a Berrios ceiling, given that the single most likely outcome is probably that 0-1 of these guys hits the Berrios level.  With only 3, the single most likely outcome is that none of them do.
  12. Like
    Cap'n Piranha got a reaction from Major League Ready in Shoemaker: "Twins way screwed me up"   
    This is a good point.  We've all been ignoring the fact that the teams the Twins faced had to use the juiced ball when pitching, while the Twins got to use the normal baseball while pitching.
  13. Like
    Cap'n Piranha got a reaction from Twins33 in José Berríos Traded to Blue Jays   
    This would be the Eddie Rosario with a sub-.700 OPS, an 84 wRC+, and whose new team traded him away in 4 months?  That Eddie?
    The hurry in trading Berrios is that if you wait to trade him until next year, your best case scenario is 1 top 100 prospect, and your worst case scenario is he needs Tommy John, and you can't even QO him for a comp pick, meaning you get literally nothing.
  14. Like
    Cap'n Piranha got a reaction from Twins33 in José Berríos Traded to Blue Jays   
    This is what I never get about the "SpEnD iN FA!!!!!!" crowd.  It guarantees nothing, and often produces nothing, yet is universally treated as a surefire way to make the playoffs.
  15. Like
    Cap'n Piranha got a reaction from Twins33 in José Berríos Traded to Blue Jays   
    And Martin was the 5th pick last year.  Hanging on to Berrios for a year your probably won't be competitive in, in the hopes of recouping a pick in the 31-38 range, as opposed to obtaining two guys who have already made it to AA makes no sense whatsoever.  Berrios has no more practical value to the Twins, in terms of the production he offers.  None of his remaining ~45 starts in 2021 or 2022 are likely to be for a Twins team on its way to the playoffs.  As such, getting the maximum amount of value for him is the only logical course, and suggesting a potential comp pick in early July 2023 (which will not be on anyone's Top 100 list) is preferable to 2 guys in late July 2021 (both of whom are on the majority of Top 100 lists) is just insane.
  16. Like
    Cap'n Piranha got a reaction from Twins33 in José Berríos Traded to Blue Jays   
    For the same reason you continue to acquire pitching prospects, even though you have Duran, Balazovic, Winder, Canterino, Ryan, and Strotman.
  17. Like
    Cap'n Piranha got a reaction from Twins33 in Big Mike Pineda staying.   
    I don't think you understand how prospect ceilings work.  It's called the ceiling precisely because they haven't proven it.  If they do prove it, then they've reached their ceiling.  If everything works out perfectly, Duran, Balazovic, Winder, Ryan, and SWR will all be as good or better than Berrios.  It's also a very real possibility that none of them are ever as good as Berrios, but having 5 guys with a Berrios ceiling is preferable to 3 guys with a Berrios ceiling, given that the single most likely outcome is probably that 0-1 of these guys hits the Berrios level.  With only 3, the single most likely outcome is that none of them do.
  18. Like
    Cap'n Piranha got a reaction from Twins33 in Big Mike Pineda staying.   
    Winder has 14 starts at AA or above--it's not going to hurt him to stay in St Paul for a bit longer (and while it's SSS, there is a noticeable downtick in his performance and peripherals in AAA).  Meanwhile, give Jax 4 starts against good teams, see what happens, and then bring Winder up in September if you really want to.
  19. Like
    Cap'n Piranha got a reaction from wabene in Twins Claim Edgar Garcia off Waivers   
    Or Santana, Johan.
  20. Like
    Cap'n Piranha got a reaction from wabene in Twins Claim Edgar Garcia off Waivers   
    One of the teams claiming Blankenhorn was, IIRC, the World Series favorite LA Dodgers.
  21. Like
    Cap'n Piranha got a reaction from wabene in Twins Claim Edgar Garcia off Waivers   
    Burrows, Colome, Coulombe, Farrell, and Minaya all seem like guys that could be released pretty easily.
    Also, as Garcia is currently having success at AAA, and has pitched part of 3 seasons in MLB, all before the age of 25, he is massively more likely to succeed than a player in A ball, or any of Brandon Lopez/Sean Miller/Randy Leblanc/CK Irby (the Twins 10th round picks from 2013-2016)
  22. Like
    Cap'n Piranha got a reaction from Shaitan in Twins Claim Edgar Garcia off Waivers   
    One of the teams claiming Blankenhorn was, IIRC, the World Series favorite LA Dodgers.
  23. Haha
    Cap'n Piranha got a reaction from operation mindcrime in José Berríos Traded to Blue Jays   
    And my best case scenario is that Jeff Bezos bequeaths his fortune to me, and then I discover a formula for immaculate immortality.
  24. Like
    Cap'n Piranha got a reaction from operation mindcrime in José Berríos Traded to Blue Jays   
    This would be the Eddie Rosario with a sub-.700 OPS, an 84 wRC+, and whose new team traded him away in 4 months?  That Eddie?
    The hurry in trading Berrios is that if you wait to trade him until next year, your best case scenario is 1 top 100 prospect, and your worst case scenario is he needs Tommy John, and you can't even QO him for a comp pick, meaning you get literally nothing.
  25. Haha
    Cap'n Piranha got a reaction from wabene in José Berríos Traded to Blue Jays   
    And my best case scenario is that Jeff Bezos bequeaths his fortune to me, and then I discover a formula for immaculate immortality.
×
×
  • Create New...