Eris reacted to bird in State of the Twins Farm System - 6 Years Into Falvey's Reign.
The last few comments have been insightful, and seem to share a view that perhaps things are better if we take a harder and more nuanced look at things. My belief is that one cannot make a proper assessment of the quality of the draft and development process without taking a combined look at the MLB and MiLB talent. Three primary reasons: 1) recent graduations making contributions to the big club; 2) Acquisitions to the club using the MilB talent; and 3) paying consideration to the injury situation.
I'm a huge believer in maintaining some "talent balance" between one's MLB and MiLB talent pools. Why? Because I believe the ONLY way, these days, to outflank the competiton on a sustainable basis is to trade a lot, to trade surpluses to solve shortfalls, and to "win" those trades fairly consistently. Personally, I like to look at "rankings", for example ESPN's Power Rankings for MLB, or systems rankings from Fangraphs and Keith Law (not MLB please). My conviction is that if either ranking falls below the median on a consistent (3 years?) basis, you're gonna be in deep doo doo. Things need to have some cyclicality, in that sometimes, you're trading surplus capital from MiLB to augment MLB, and sometimes the opposite, and if you have good quality in both, you can do some of each. An example from this trade deadline is that Fangraphs viewed the Twins as having the second best results in terms of "improving their postseason chances, and they did that without losing a singlr prospect with a FV of more than 40+. CWS, by contrast, did nothing. Why? Because they HAVE nothing to trade in their MiLB system. They have a total of seven (7!) prospects with a 40+ FV or better, and none above 45+.
Two last points. To make a fair assessment, we need to look at things relative to other organizations (I use the AL Central because , well...) And we have to account for advantages in the draft order over whatever period we're studying. The pundits are biased in favor of future all-star types when they grade farm systems. They greatly underrate depth. So far in 2022, other contending teams in the AL Central have had three or four members of their rotations give them 19 starts or more. The Twins have zero, and the Twins starters with the most starts are Bundy and Archer. So why are they still leading the division? Greater depth. In every day players (Cave, Contreras, Palacios, Beckham), in Injury replacement starters (Smeltzer, Winder, Sands, Sanchez), and even RP's (Megill, Cotton, Cano, Moran)< to name just a few examples. Detroit, Chicago, and even Cleveland cannot match this.
Sorry for the length. In summary, I think the system is in better shape than most people think.
Eris reacted to LA VIkes Fan in State of the Twins Farm System - 6 Years Into Falvey's Reign.
I do think there's something missing from this analysis that may change the conclusion. As fans, we have to rely published evaluations of minor league players. The far better evaluation tool is to look at what other teams will give up to get your minor league players. It's kind of like real estate, you can find valuations of your house all over the Internet but the real valuation is what someone will give you for that house.
Here, I think the last trade deadline shows that the FO has done a good job drafting and restocking the farm system. We were able to trade 9 minor league players for a number 2 or 3 starter and a high and closer who both have significant control remaining, and a very good rental set up man. To me, that's the market saying to the Twins that "you have good minor league players". By contrast, there were several other teams looking to upgrade by trading prospects who couldn't do so because other teams did not highly value their prospects. I believe that a majority if not all of the prospects traded were drafted by this Front Office. All of that happened without trading some other guys drafted by this Front Office who potentially could have garnered even higher returns because they were so good as to be untouchable (Miranda), or were injured and/or untouchable (Larnach, Kirilloff, Lewis).,
Farm systems exist for 2 reasons, not just one. The 1st is of course to provide a steady stream of low cost players to the major league club. The 2nd and almost as important reason is to provide resources so that when you are in an open intention window you can make trades for establish major leaguers without giving established major leaguers back in return.
I think when you look at the totality of circumstances to me the more fair conclusion is that this Front Office has done a solid to very good job drafting the last 3 or 4 years and was able to turn those solid to very good drafts into established major league players. I think that shows a good organizational approach. We reaped the benefits of that approach at this year's deadline.
Eris got a reaction from GoGonzoJournal in Why Ervin Santana's complete games are so important to Twins
Being able to throw a complete game and its benefits to the team is one of the attributes that is lost in the velocity arms race and the desire for maximum strikeouts. If your starter goes 6 innings, a team will typically need 4 or more pitchers to make it through the game. Long term that has the effect of making the bullpen less effective from overuse.
There is an interesting article I was first alerted to by a post in the TD draft thread, on the return of the curveball. Santana doesn't have great velocity or a good curveball, but there are indications that teams are moving beyond velocity.
Eris got a reaction from goulik in Twins Begin Weighing Possibilities With Plouffe
Peak value is often only determined in hindsight. In hindsight, Plouffe should have been moved at the trade deadline last summer when the Twins were in the middle of a pennant race (or at least thought they were). The value this past winter for 3rd basemen was not very good. For example, look at what the Reds got in return for Todd Frazier, someone who is a much better offensive and defensive player than Plouffe. Frazier was also available at the trade deadline last summer and he wasn't moved, presumably because the Reds where not happy with what offered.
The Mets need at 3rd baseman. It was reported that they made inquiries about Danny Valencia (but not Plouffe). If the Twins put Plouffe on waivers, would he clear waivers?
Eris reacted to Ted Schwerzler in Twins Toying With Dangerous Territory
The numbers actually aren't very good at all. While they are well above pitches per/AB, the research I've done has suggested K rates are troublesome.
Chris Davis struck out an MLB leading 208 times a season ago. However, he saw 13.39 pitches per every strikeout. Some of these Twins problem guys are nearly below half of that.