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sthpstm

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  1. Like
    sthpstm got a reaction from Kevin for a blog entry, Fool me thrice...what do the Twins know that forced the Graterol trade   
    The trade of Brusdar Graterol has brought a lot of emotions and grand presumptions from fans and commentators. Unfortunately, most of the reactions, assumptions and presumptions of this trade are wrong.
    Stick with me here, but the Twins HAD to trade Graterol and in doing so this organization has FINALLY sold high on a prospect. All we have to do is look at the past to see what happened here.
    When Falvey and Levine were hired, they talked about research and development and opined that perhaps keeping players healthy and using research on available medical data might be the next market inefficiency. While this is likely what lead to the decisions to sign Pineda and Hill, it seems reasonable that not all of the results of this research would lead to signing players. It has also lead to pointing to data on what type of player to avoid.
     
    Approximately 2 years ago, 2 transactions occurred that I believe hint to what lead to the departure of Graterol. These transactions were befuddling to many of us - the Twins let two future stud relievers in JT Chargois and Nick Burdi leave for nothing. Burdi was left unprotected and was selected in the rule 5 draft by the Phillies before being traded to the Pirates. Chargois was claimed off waivers by the Dodgers. The bullpen was in desperate need of help from strikeout pitchers and yet the Twins let go of perhaps their two most likely young pitchers that could do that. And they have started to show that striking out batters is definitely what they can do! Oh, except they've not been able to do much of it because they can't stay on the field. Nick Burdi has barely pitched since heading to Pittsburgh. While JT Chargois has not been injured to the same extent, the results have not been there. He is now heading to Japan, having been released by the Dodgers.
    These two were well regarded prospects. Certainly the Twins could have gotten something for them at some point. But they didn't and instead had to let them go for nothing.
    Not so with Graterol who was another high-octane pitcher, and most likely a reliever, with a history of injury troubles. So rather than bemoan the fact that he was traded and won't be pitching 200 innings and winning a Cy Young, be thrilled that the Twins have finally shown that they have learned the lessons of the past. I certainly don't know what data the Twins have found to tell them to let these to go. But clearly they saw something that told them that having these two players on their 40 man roster was not worth it. It was better to let them go and protect other players who could serve as MLB players and as depth for the roster in 2018, 2019, and moving forward. For Graterol, rather than sitting through more years of injury-shortened seasons, and perhaps a second TJ surgery, the Twins cashed in for a solid starting pitcher in Kenta Maeda. One who, while having his own red flags should contribute through the season and into October. So don't be stressed, be thankful that you cheer for a team that has finally figured out what they're doing, even if we don't always immediately get it.
    On a final note, I've heard some prognosticators prognosticating that now that the Twins have traded a prospect for immediate help, they are going to start trading other top prospects for help at the trade deadline. I think this is wishful assumption making based on nothing concrete. All we know right now is that if the Twins have identified a high risk player, they'll be willing to cash in that chip rather than end up getting nothing.
  2. Like
    sthpstm got a reaction from In My La Z boy for a blog entry, Fool me thrice...what do the Twins know that forced the Graterol trade   
    The trade of Brusdar Graterol has brought a lot of emotions and grand presumptions from fans and commentators. Unfortunately, most of the reactions, assumptions and presumptions of this trade are wrong.
    Stick with me here, but the Twins HAD to trade Graterol and in doing so this organization has FINALLY sold high on a prospect. All we have to do is look at the past to see what happened here.
    When Falvey and Levine were hired, they talked about research and development and opined that perhaps keeping players healthy and using research on available medical data might be the next market inefficiency. While this is likely what lead to the decisions to sign Pineda and Hill, it seems reasonable that not all of the results of this research would lead to signing players. It has also lead to pointing to data on what type of player to avoid.
     
    Approximately 2 years ago, 2 transactions occurred that I believe hint to what lead to the departure of Graterol. These transactions were befuddling to many of us - the Twins let two future stud relievers in JT Chargois and Nick Burdi leave for nothing. Burdi was left unprotected and was selected in the rule 5 draft by the Phillies before being traded to the Pirates. Chargois was claimed off waivers by the Dodgers. The bullpen was in desperate need of help from strikeout pitchers and yet the Twins let go of perhaps their two most likely young pitchers that could do that. And they have started to show that striking out batters is definitely what they can do! Oh, except they've not been able to do much of it because they can't stay on the field. Nick Burdi has barely pitched since heading to Pittsburgh. While JT Chargois has not been injured to the same extent, the results have not been there. He is now heading to Japan, having been released by the Dodgers.
    These two were well regarded prospects. Certainly the Twins could have gotten something for them at some point. But they didn't and instead had to let them go for nothing.
    Not so with Graterol who was another high-octane pitcher, and most likely a reliever, with a history of injury troubles. So rather than bemoan the fact that he was traded and won't be pitching 200 innings and winning a Cy Young, be thrilled that the Twins have finally shown that they have learned the lessons of the past. I certainly don't know what data the Twins have found to tell them to let these to go. But clearly they saw something that told them that having these two players on their 40 man roster was not worth it. It was better to let them go and protect other players who could serve as MLB players and as depth for the roster in 2018, 2019, and moving forward. For Graterol, rather than sitting through more years of injury-shortened seasons, and perhaps a second TJ surgery, the Twins cashed in for a solid starting pitcher in Kenta Maeda. One who, while having his own red flags should contribute through the season and into October. So don't be stressed, be thankful that you cheer for a team that has finally figured out what they're doing, even if we don't always immediately get it.
    On a final note, I've heard some prognosticators prognosticating that now that the Twins have traded a prospect for immediate help, they are going to start trading other top prospects for help at the trade deadline. I think this is wishful assumption making based on nothing concrete. All we know right now is that if the Twins have identified a high risk player, they'll be willing to cash in that chip rather than end up getting nothing.
  3. Like
    sthpstm got a reaction from nclahammer for a blog entry, Fool me thrice...what do the Twins know that forced the Graterol trade   
    The trade of Brusdar Graterol has brought a lot of emotions and grand presumptions from fans and commentators. Unfortunately, most of the reactions, assumptions and presumptions of this trade are wrong.
    Stick with me here, but the Twins HAD to trade Graterol and in doing so this organization has FINALLY sold high on a prospect. All we have to do is look at the past to see what happened here.
    When Falvey and Levine were hired, they talked about research and development and opined that perhaps keeping players healthy and using research on available medical data might be the next market inefficiency. While this is likely what lead to the decisions to sign Pineda and Hill, it seems reasonable that not all of the results of this research would lead to signing players. It has also lead to pointing to data on what type of player to avoid.
     
    Approximately 2 years ago, 2 transactions occurred that I believe hint to what lead to the departure of Graterol. These transactions were befuddling to many of us - the Twins let two future stud relievers in JT Chargois and Nick Burdi leave for nothing. Burdi was left unprotected and was selected in the rule 5 draft by the Phillies before being traded to the Pirates. Chargois was claimed off waivers by the Dodgers. The bullpen was in desperate need of help from strikeout pitchers and yet the Twins let go of perhaps their two most likely young pitchers that could do that. And they have started to show that striking out batters is definitely what they can do! Oh, except they've not been able to do much of it because they can't stay on the field. Nick Burdi has barely pitched since heading to Pittsburgh. While JT Chargois has not been injured to the same extent, the results have not been there. He is now heading to Japan, having been released by the Dodgers.
    These two were well regarded prospects. Certainly the Twins could have gotten something for them at some point. But they didn't and instead had to let them go for nothing.
    Not so with Graterol who was another high-octane pitcher, and most likely a reliever, with a history of injury troubles. So rather than bemoan the fact that he was traded and won't be pitching 200 innings and winning a Cy Young, be thrilled that the Twins have finally shown that they have learned the lessons of the past. I certainly don't know what data the Twins have found to tell them to let these to go. But clearly they saw something that told them that having these two players on their 40 man roster was not worth it. It was better to let them go and protect other players who could serve as MLB players and as depth for the roster in 2018, 2019, and moving forward. For Graterol, rather than sitting through more years of injury-shortened seasons, and perhaps a second TJ surgery, the Twins cashed in for a solid starting pitcher in Kenta Maeda. One who, while having his own red flags should contribute through the season and into October. So don't be stressed, be thankful that you cheer for a team that has finally figured out what they're doing, even if we don't always immediately get it.
    On a final note, I've heard some prognosticators prognosticating that now that the Twins have traded a prospect for immediate help, they are going to start trading other top prospects for help at the trade deadline. I think this is wishful assumption making based on nothing concrete. All we know right now is that if the Twins have identified a high risk player, they'll be willing to cash in that chip rather than end up getting nothing.
  4. Like
    sthpstm got a reaction from Jeff_M for a blog entry, Fool me thrice...what do the Twins know that forced the Graterol trade   
    The trade of Brusdar Graterol has brought a lot of emotions and grand presumptions from fans and commentators. Unfortunately, most of the reactions, assumptions and presumptions of this trade are wrong.
    Stick with me here, but the Twins HAD to trade Graterol and in doing so this organization has FINALLY sold high on a prospect. All we have to do is look at the past to see what happened here.
    When Falvey and Levine were hired, they talked about research and development and opined that perhaps keeping players healthy and using research on available medical data might be the next market inefficiency. While this is likely what lead to the decisions to sign Pineda and Hill, it seems reasonable that not all of the results of this research would lead to signing players. It has also lead to pointing to data on what type of player to avoid.
     
    Approximately 2 years ago, 2 transactions occurred that I believe hint to what lead to the departure of Graterol. These transactions were befuddling to many of us - the Twins let two future stud relievers in JT Chargois and Nick Burdi leave for nothing. Burdi was left unprotected and was selected in the rule 5 draft by the Phillies before being traded to the Pirates. Chargois was claimed off waivers by the Dodgers. The bullpen was in desperate need of help from strikeout pitchers and yet the Twins let go of perhaps their two most likely young pitchers that could do that. And they have started to show that striking out batters is definitely what they can do! Oh, except they've not been able to do much of it because they can't stay on the field. Nick Burdi has barely pitched since heading to Pittsburgh. While JT Chargois has not been injured to the same extent, the results have not been there. He is now heading to Japan, having been released by the Dodgers.
    These two were well regarded prospects. Certainly the Twins could have gotten something for them at some point. But they didn't and instead had to let them go for nothing.
    Not so with Graterol who was another high-octane pitcher, and most likely a reliever, with a history of injury troubles. So rather than bemoan the fact that he was traded and won't be pitching 200 innings and winning a Cy Young, be thrilled that the Twins have finally shown that they have learned the lessons of the past. I certainly don't know what data the Twins have found to tell them to let these to go. But clearly they saw something that told them that having these two players on their 40 man roster was not worth it. It was better to let them go and protect other players who could serve as MLB players and as depth for the roster in 2018, 2019, and moving forward. For Graterol, rather than sitting through more years of injury-shortened seasons, and perhaps a second TJ surgery, the Twins cashed in for a solid starting pitcher in Kenta Maeda. One who, while having his own red flags should contribute through the season and into October. So don't be stressed, be thankful that you cheer for a team that has finally figured out what they're doing, even if we don't always immediately get it.
    On a final note, I've heard some prognosticators prognosticating that now that the Twins have traded a prospect for immediate help, they are going to start trading other top prospects for help at the trade deadline. I think this is wishful assumption making based on nothing concrete. All we know right now is that if the Twins have identified a high risk player, they'll be willing to cash in that chip rather than end up getting nothing.
  5. Like
    sthpstm got a reaction from Kevin for a blog entry, A foreseeable event   
    As a fan whose lifestyle is most kindly described as thrifty, the pay calculations of baseball players has long bothered me. Why would a player who is young but exceptionally gifted be payed a pittance? Why would a player who was once productive but has for various reasons become unproductive be paid 10 to 20 times more? Why would a player who is productive and may remain so or may as likely become unproductive be guaranteed 200 times more?
    "Because the market and it's rules allow it" has essentially been the response. If it take s $50 million, or $100 million to get an experienced player who has been greatly underpaid; if a team is willing to pay them and get a small percentage of the expected value for the monetary investment, so be it.
    We are finally seeing the beginning of this system cracking. While I welcome the change, I don't welcome the fights likely to ensue. Can a team shield itself from this?
    This offseason, with a few exceptions teams are beginning to step back from what have historically been vast overpays for currently good but soon likely to decline productivity. This makes sense. But at the same time those same teams will continue to pay next to nothing for some players that will provide value far greater than their pay. This does not make sense. A market correction is understandable; but a correction on one part without a correction on the other will result in some issue. In this case, that issue may be a player strike. Perhaps it will start small until the next CBA, or perhaps or it will happen all at once in 4 years.
    Rather than going any further on the complaints, how can a team get ahead of the issue, and is there any advantage to doing so?
    What if a team chooses to provide fairer pay to young players by internally increasing all pre-arbitration salaries to amounts rarely seen? If the Twins contract offer to free agents included this guarantee, would any veteran player care?
    Will that increase improve player moral, and will that have an effect on effort, on productive, on things that make a ball club better?
    Teams created analytics and research departments to improve their outcomes. Is there a market deficiency here that could be altered to be ahead of the curve? Would a team doing so be more attractive to free agents? Would fans care? Would they react positively and support the team in greater ways (more dollars)?
    I believe this is likely something that might effect the teams appearance to free agents greater in 2019 and 2020 more so than in 2018, but since 2018 is what currently affects it, here is my example.
     
    Dear Yu Darvish (or Jake Arrieta, Alex Cobb, or whomever you wish with dollars and possibly years changed appropriately),
    Effective 2018, the Twins will be increasing the salaries for pre-arbitration eligible players 2 times the standard rate calculation. This amount will increase to 3 times the standard rate in 2019, to 4 times the standard rate in 2020 and to 5 times the rate in 2021.
    Further increases will be likely in 2022.
    Beginning in 2019 and ending in 2021, arbitration-eligible numbers will also be increased with the final percentages being an increase of 100% - 90% for players under $1 million, by 75%-60% for players over $1 million but under $3 million, by 50%-35% for those between $3 million and $5 million, and by 25%-15% for those between $5 million and $10 million. The percentages will be based on a sliding scale which decreases for greater salaries which is detailed on the attached.
    In order to pay all players a fairer wage, veteran players in free agency will, must, see their wages affected to some degree. Our offer is reflective of this change, though we have attempted to keep those changes minimal and have included incentives based off of the amount of innings pitched in later years.
    Beginning in 2018 your 5 year salary schedule would be the following: $28 million, $30 million, $25 million (up to $3 million incentives at 190 innings), $20 million (up to $5 million incentives at 190 innings), $17 million (up to $7 million incentives at 190 innings). The base salary total is $120 million up to $135 million with incentives met. We acknowledge that based off of past contracts for free agents, the amount would likely have been $180 - $150 million over 6 or 5 years. But we also acknowledge that a change must come and will come. We want to be a driver in that change and ask you to join us in being a driving force for fairer pay practices.
    By the year 2021 players base salary with the Twins will begin at $2.5 million, with an estimated total salary increase of $20 million.
    By the year 2021 arbitration salaries as compared with 2018 salaries would be $22 million to $14 million (based off of current Twins players likely to be in the system we estimate this actual amount to be $65 million compared to $50 million).
    The total increase for the year 2021 which must be reflected in free agent payments is $32.5 million, with total increases over the 4 year period being far greater.
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