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chpettit19

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  1. Like
    chpettit19 reacted to Vanimal46 in Free Agents the Twins should target for 2022   
    I am all in on this SS class. Go big and get one of Correa, Seager, Story, or Baez. I don’t see a reason to continue hoping Lewis MIGHT become the long term solution when there are elite options who CAN be the long term solution at SS. If Lewis progresses and becomes MLB ready, great! We will find a place for him somewhere. Potentially as the super utility guy to start his career. 
  2. Like
    chpettit19 got a reaction from Brock Beauchamp in No Half Measures   
    I see very little chance of getting a quality return for JD during the offseason. Either you're eating a ton of money and watching your team get worse while hoping on a lottery ticket prospect, or you're eating a little money while watching your team get worse and getting nothing in return. I think waiting til the deadline is a smarter move. He's got less money on the books and if he's raking again somebody will want him. If the team is doing well and he's raking then you keep him as that was the plan when you gave him the deal to start. Obviously take calls and listen to any offers, but if I'm the Twins FO I'm not actively shopping him during the offseason. 
  3. Like
    chpettit19 reacted to wavedog in Free Agents the Twins should target for 2022   
    Like the list - in particular the pitchers and there are some different names to consider!  I agree if we go after a long-term shortstop Correa would be the one I would want - while also acknowledging the likelihood of this being extremely low or should I say non-existent. 
  4. Like
    chpettit19 reacted to Andrew Mahlke in Free Agents the Twins should target for 2022   
    It is no secret that the Twins had a disappointing 2021 season. We had our positives, like a great season from Jorge Polanco and we continued to see that when Byron Buxton is on the field he has the potential to be the best player in baseball. One place we really faltered last year was our free agent signings did not live up to expectations. From Matt Shoemaker and his -0.7 fWAR, an ERA over 8, and FIP over 6, to Andrelton Simmons and his -0.5 fWAR, 56 wRC+, and .558 OPS, and many in between, one place the Twins could really improve this year is in their free agent acquisitions. With between 45-60 million dollars in projected spending, the Twins could really get creative with their free agent signings. Here are 5 free agents that I think the Twins should try to acquire this offseason.
    Heath Hembree, RP, NY Mets At first glance, Heath Hembree had an extremely disappointing 2021 campaign. From a standard statistical viewpoint, he was 2-7 with a 5.59 ERA. Now, by only looking at these numbers you might think the Twins would be crazy to sign a 33 year old reliever with stats that bad. But taking a deeper dive into his numbers, you might be able to see why this is a cheap signing that could very well pay off.
    Although Hembree had a 5.59 ERA last season, his expected ERA (xERA) was actually 3.12, which was in the 88th percentile of all MLB pitchers last season. If you are unfamiliar, xERA takes into account the quality of contact allowed by a pitcher (exit velocity and launch angle) rather than the results of what happened. Basically, it eliminates luck (weather, defenses, ballpark dimensions). It gives the pitcher credit for what he can control.
    According to Baseball Savant, Hembree had the largest difference between his actual ERA and his expected ERA for any pitcher in the 2021 season (2.47). 
    Another statistic that favors just how unlucky Hembree was this season is xwOBA. This is similar to xERA in that it shows how Hembree’s batted ball data including his walks allowed and strikeouts would usually play out, eliminating factors beyond his control. Hembree’s xwOBA was actually .035 lower than his actual wOBA, good enough for 9th in the MLB among qualifiers.
    As strikeouts are becoming more and more common in the big leagues, it is important to have pitchers who can strike guys out at a high rate. This is something Hembree excelled at last year. Hembree struck out 34.2% of batters last year. A number this high puts him in the 96th percentile of all MLB pitchers, which is fantastic. His high strikeout rates can be attributed to his above average spin rates. Along with his fastball velocity being in the 79th percentile of all pitchers, his fastball spin rate is in the 92nd percentile, and his breaking-ball spin rate is in the 96th percentile. These are great predictors of future success for Hembree because although his bad luck may not continue, his high strikeout numbers and high spin rates should.
    One thing Hembree could work on is limiting the number of walks he allows. Last year Hembree’s walk rate was 9.9%, which was only in the 28th percentile of all pitchers. If Hembree limits his walks and gets a little bit more luck on his side, he could be a key contributor to the Twins bullpen in 2022 at a very low price.
    Carlos Correa, SS, Houston Astros There are not many players more controversial than Carlos Correa. His handling of the 2017 Houston Astros cheating scandal rubbed a lot of people in the wrong direction. Many wondered if Correa’s red hot start to his career was only because of the cheating. The answer to that question can be put to rest. In 2021, Correa had the 9th highest fWAR (5.8) of all position players. Additionally he had a wRC+ of 134, meaning he was 34% above a league average hitter
    Correa is one of the best players in the league when he is at his best. In 2021, he was in the 87th percentile of xWOBA, his hard hit rate was in the 63rd percentile at over 42%, and his walk rate was almost 12%, good enough to be in the 84th percentile.
    In 2021, the Twins had one of the worst shortstops in the league in Simmons. Going from Simmons to Correa would be a massive upgrade at one of the premier positions in baseball. This past year, Correa was in the 97th percentile in Outs Above Average (OAA). He was the 6th highest shortstop behind Nicky Lopez, Francisco Lindor, Nick Ahmed, Simmons, and Brandon Crawford. Yes, Simmons is ahead of Correa but Correa’s offense is so much better than Simmons’s that the difference defensively is almost negligible. 
    Correa is also a machine in the playoffs. He is currently tied for the 7th most homers in playoff history with 18, and he is only 27 years old. Astros manager Dusty Baker has called Correa one of the best pressure players he has ever seen, and Baker has been in the MLB as a manager since 1993 and has managed the likes of Barry Bonds, Joey Votto, and Bryce Harper.
    If we do sign Correa, the question arises: what happens to Austin Martin and Royce Lewis? Well, if we have enough money to sign Correa that means we most likely didn’t extend Buxton or we would’ve traded Donaldson to get rid of his contract to clear up money for Correa. That leaves an open spot at CF and 3B. Ideally, Lewis would play center and Martin would play third like he did in his college days at Vanderbilt. Lewis has also been taking reps in the outfield in the minor leagues. Again, this move only happens if we trade or don’t resign Buxton, which I think is a terrible idea given his sky high potential. 
    Correa will likely command a lot of money in the free agent market, and is projected to get an expensive 10 year, $266.2 million dollar contract by Spotrac. This signing is unfortunately not likely, but the Twins could definitely make it happen if they were to unload salaries. If we don’t extend Byron Buxton, I would hope we pivot to making Correa a massive offer.
    Chris Taylor, UTIL, LA Dodgers If you have been paying attention to postseason baseball this year, you probably are familiar with Chris Taylor. Earlier this month, he hit a walk-off home run to send the Dodgers to the NLDS. He has been an integral part of the Los Angeles Dodgers success since being traded there from Seattle in 2016. Taylor is a utility man who can play all three outfield positions along with third base and middle infield. Having a player with that kind of versatility on your team can be vital to team success. It would allow us to give guys regular days off while shifting Taylor all around the diamond.
    Taylor had a breakout 2017 campaign, when he had an .850 OPS and a 126 wRC+. Since then he has been around a 110 wRC+, still 10% better than league average. Taylor is also extremely fast, as he is in the 91st percentile of all players in sprint speed, as his average is 28.8 ft/sec (league average is 27). Another thing Taylor does extremely well is his plate discipline. In 2021 his walk rate was 10.8% and in the 73rd percentile. His chase rate was in the 92nd percentile, which means he rarely swings at bad pitches. The combination of Taylor having a high walk rate and low chase rate means that even when he is not hitting well at the plate he can still contribute offensively, getting on base 34% of the time and he will usually steal over 10 bases a season.
    Chris Taylor will be a player who will be worth 2-3 WAR per season and does a lot of little things right that help his teams win games. He would not be a super expensive pick-up as Spotrac has him projected to be worth $11 million per year. This would be a great signing by the Twins and Taylor would be able to help us in all facets of the game
    Ryan Tepera, RP, Chicago White Sox Most recently, Ryan Tepera made headlines for saying the Astros are still doing ‘sketchy stuff’, to which Astros manager Dusty Baker responded saying he had never heard of Tepera before. Well, maybe Dusty should pay a little more attention because Tepera was quietly one of the best relievers in baseball in 2021.
    Historically, when relief pitchers are evaluated, the first thing people check is how many saves they have. Between his time on the north side and south side of Chicago this season, Tepera only had one save to his name. A lot of this is due to the White Sox bullpen being absolutely loaded with big names such as Liam Hendriks and Craig Kimbrel. But if you take a deeper dive into the statistics, you will find that Tepera was the second best pitcher in an extremely deep White Sox bullpen.
    Tepera had an ERA of 2.79, which is already considered elite. Even at this elite level, Tepera got unlucky. His xERA was 2.50 and his xwOBA was .248. These are both in the 96th percentile of all pitchers. Of relief pitchers with at least 60 innings pitched in 2021, there were only 6 with a lower xERA than Tepera.
    Another thing Tepera excels at is getting swings and misses. His whiff rate was in the 96th percentile, and his K% was just over 30%, good enough to be in the 88th percentile of all pitchers. When I first looked at his pitch profile, his fastball velocity, spin rate, and his curveball spin rate are all about league average. So I wondered, what makes him so special?

    Tepera has a very good slider, throwing it nearly 45% of the time in 2021, up from just over 5% in 2020. His whiff rate on his slider was nearly 51%, meaning that over half of the time batters would swing at it they would swing and miss. This is extremely good. Another thing that jumps out at me about Tepera’s slider is that since 2019, he is getting roughly 0.7 feet more of extension on his slider, and since then his xwOBA on that pitch has gone way down.
    Once Tepera discovered he had an elite slider and began throwing it more, he turned into one of the most dominant relievers in the league. Obviously the Twins struggled with relief pitching this season and Tepera would be a huge upgrade to our bullpen. With his strong expected stats from 2021 and his newly revamped slider, Tepera would be very successful and a great signing for fairly cheap.
    Eduardo Rodriguez, SP, Boston Red Sox Among baseball fans, Eduardo Rodriguez is a pretty well-known name. He has always been a fairly consistent middle of the rotation starter. This season, he had a below average ERA of 4.74, although his xERA showed that he was a bit unlucky. His xERA was 3.55, more than a difference of a full point. This is in the 73rd percentile of all qualified pitchers. With a bit more luck, he would be a solid 3 starter in a Twins rotation that badly needs a consistent starter. With Michael Pineda being a free agent and Kenta Maeda undergoing Tommy John surgery, the Twins are in dire need of starting pitchers.
    If you look at Eduardo Rodriguez’s percentile rankings in 2021, he was above average in just about every relevant category. In fact, he was in the 90th percentile of average exit velocity allowed. This means that he rarely allows hard contact and that is a very important quality to have as a pitcher. He also had a K% of 27.4, which is in the 76th percentile of all pitchers. He does not walk a lot of batters, having a walk rate of 7%, good enough to be in the 70th percentile of all pitchers.
    One reason Rodriguez is still not excellent despite his ability to miss barrels is because of his pitch arsenal. Below is his pitch arsenal by month in 2021.

    As you can see, he threw his fastball almost 45% of the time and his most frequent off-speed pitch is his changeup. He has a good mix of pitches, throwing four different pitches more than 10% of the time. However, he could be even more effective if he threw his sinker more and his cutter less. In 2021, his cutter was his worst pitch, allowing a .301 BA and a .487 SLG on the pitch. However, he continued to throw it 18% of the time, or every fifth pitch. His sinker was way more effective, only allowing a BA of .264 and a SLG of .385. However, he only threw his sinker 11% of the time, or 60% as much as he threw his cutter. Rodriguez also has an extremely effective changeup. Against changeups, hitters had an xBA of .238 against it, with lefties hitting only .176 against the changeup. If the Twins could convince Rodriguez to throw more sinkers and changeups, and less cutters, he would be an outstanding signing.
    Rodriguez would not be a super expensive signing, with plenty of starting pitchers also on the market such as big names Max Scherzer, Zack Greinke, Clayton Kershaw, and Justin Verlander. A lot of teams may underlook an unlucky pitcher such as Rodriguez and that may allow the Twins to swoop in and sign him for less money than he is worth.
    Conclusion
    The Twins had a very disappointing 2021 season and they have a big offseason ahead of them. They have big decisions to make such as a potential Buxton extension, key arbitration decisions such as Taylor Rogers and Tyler Duffey, potential trades, and which free agents to bring in. If we look at a big name free agent such as Correa and then some undervalued pieces like Hembree, Taylor, Tepera, and Rodriguez we will be in a good spot to compete for the AL Central again in 2022.
  5. Like
    chpettit19 reacted to tony&rodney in Free Agents the Twins should target for 2022   
    Well researched argument, realistic, and these players would all look good in a Twins uniform. Correa is likely too far a stretch but possible and we shall see what Falvey's plans are to reshape the roster.
  6. Like
    chpettit19 reacted to Vanimal46 in Free Agent starting pitchers   
    I truly believe it’s an organizational philosophy set by the Pohlads to not spend big money on free agent pitching. I won’t believe it until I see it. Which takes out the first 2 tiers in the linked article. 
    They’ll probably go after a mid-tier option like Alex Wood or Jon Gray… Look to bring back Pineda, then sign 1 or 2 bounce back candidates like Heaney and Duffy. 
  7. Like
    chpettit19 reacted to Andrew Mahlke in Free Agent starting pitchers   
    I fail to see how trading Buxton and Arraez will get them ready for 2024-2025. Both of them will still be in their prime, with Buck at the tail end and Arraez entering it. If we want to compete 3 years down the line they are both definitely guys we want to hang on to.
  8. Like
    chpettit19 reacted to Brock Beauchamp in Free Agent starting pitchers   
    There are 30 MLB teams and 15 players in those top four tiers. Expecting a single mid-market team to sign 20% of those those 15 players is a pretty unreasonable ask.
    But my expectation is for the Twins to sign one of those top guys (not top four tiers, maybe top three) and then one higher-upside reach on a shorter contract. Then they can go get a filler like Pineda.
    (not that it needs to happen in that particular order but come February, that's what I want to see)
  9. Like
    chpettit19 reacted to Major League Ready in Is Jorge Polanco the Twins' Most Valuable Trade Asset?   
    Probably.  However, I don't think this is the right question.  Is trading him the best way to build a contender and how long will that take.  That's the right question.  Polanco is really important to this lineup.  Yes, we could go with Arraez at 2B which is his best defensive position.  One of them should be traded, IMO.  If it's Polanco, it needs to be a big haul.  Otherwise, trade Arraez a part of a trade to get a SS or pitching.  Trading Polanco extends the time it takes us tom get back in contention.  We have a very good chance of ending 2022 with a pitching staff that is homegrown.  Extend Buxton and establish this homegrown staff and we have a great shot at contention for several years.  
  10. Like
    chpettit19 got a reaction from Squirrel in No Half Measures   
    I've never said JD is the MVP of the league with the Twins and some schmo with another team. Nowhere near that, actually. You're the one twisting things. I've said in every post I've made on this thread that JD is worth more to the Twins than on the trade market this offseason because of the $52 million he'd be owed if traded. That doesn't mean he's a better player for the Twins than he is for somebody else, it means teams aren't willing to trade for a player and pay them more than they're worth. Would you pay a car dealership for the right to pay twice as much for a car than it's worth?
    I also went through the idea that other orgs won't be looking to trade for JD before they see what they can get on the free agent market. Trading for an overpriced vet isn't going to be team's first option. It'll likely be their backup plan if they can't get who they want on the market (any contender is going to be looking to bring in one of the 5 SSs before they trade for JD). Which means there's a very good chance that by the time the Twins could even pull off a JD trade there will be little to no top end pitching talent left on the market and now you've traded JD for the chance to sign Happ, Shoemaker, Colome, Robles, or, at best, Pineda types. That's why I say trading him during the season would be a better time as teams would have limited options for improving their team and he'd have less on his deal. That's not making a different argument or changing my stance, it's adding more context.
    JD would get about half of what his current contract is if he were on the open market. Maybe a little more. No team is going to trade anything at all to take on his deal. They aren't. It's not a debate. Nobody does that. The Cards got $50M from the Rockies and traded no real prospects (Gomber was the best piece and he's a #4 type starter) to get a drastically better, and younger, Arenado last offseason, and the Rockies were blasted by everyone in the industry for being completely incompetent. But you think the Mets are going to take JD and most of his money? It's possible, but I highly doubt it.
    Feel free to post any MLBTR posts about the Mets being willing to take on his deal and not get prospects back. I went through JD's, the Twins', and the Mets' MLBTR pages (where you claim there's talk of the Mets taking on his deal) this morning and the only mentions of trade talks in there say there was never real traction on a deal. Maybe because the Mets didn't want to take on his whole deal and the Twins didn't want to have to trade prospects to get rid of their 3rd best player?
    But we'll just agree to disagree that Arraez/Miranda at 3B with $75M payroll room is better than JD at 3B, Arraez as IF utility/injury replacement, Miranda getting his feet wet, and $60M payroll room.
  11. Like
    chpettit19 got a reaction from Squirrel in No Half Measures   
    If the Mets were willing to take on darn near all of Donaldson's contract without the Twins having to kick in prospects the FO should be fired for not taking that deal. It simply isn't realistic. No team would have been willing to take on 65 mil for Donaldson. There's no chance.
    Justin Turner is a better player than Donaldson is right now and has been a key member of a championship caliber team for the last 8 years. Donaldson absolutely could not get more than Turner on the open market. Maybe Donaldson could get 2 years 30, maybe. So the Twins have to eat 20 mil just to get back to even and would then maybe get a flier prospect in low A. So now they're paying 10m a year for their 3rd best hitter and 3rd best fielder to play somewhere else. So your lineup and defense just got significantly worse. Adding Gray would be nice, but you can get him without trading Donaldson.
    Shipping out Donaldson would also be a signal to FAs that the Twins aren't looking to compete in 2022 and are rebuilding with young guys. Many FAs wouldn't want to go to a team in that situation and MN already has a hard enough time convincing FAs to come here in the first place. Trading Donaldson and eating 20M guarantees the Twins have a worse lineup and worse defense for next year without guaranteeing they improve anywhere else. They'd have an extra 15M to spend, maybe. That doesn't mean they get a guy worth 15M/year. Maybe they miss on everyone in that range and end up with a Pineda type and Colome type. Are the Twins better without Donaldson but with a #3ish starter and ok, but not shutdown, reliever? I'd argue no. 
    I have no problem with the Twins moving Donaldson if they can get a good deal. But he's not going to be at the top of anyone's to do list early in the offseason. Teams will look to bring in FAs first. The SS market is going to slow much of the offseason down as all the contenders will want to take a shot at getting one of them. So they'll have to wait until most of the FAs are gone and at that point the extra 15M isn't going to be bringing in a 15M player, but would, at best, be used to bring in some Happ, Shoemaker, Colome, Robles types. That's why I say chances are you get a better deal at the deadline if Donaldson is playing well and the team is struggling.
  12. Like
    chpettit19 got a reaction from wabene in No Half Measures   
    I never said they'd have to pay his entire salary. I said they'd have to pay the balance of the 50M above what he'd be worth on the market now to get any sort of prospect back. JD isn't worth 25 a year for his age 36 and 37 seasons. No team (Mets or any other high spender) is going to give the Twins even a flier for the right to take on 50M in payroll for JD. They just aren't. 
    JD is worth more to the Twins because trading him means they'd still be paying part of his salary and they wouldn't be getting much, if anything, in return. If teams wouldn't pay him 50 over 2 on the open market what makes you think they'd trade even a flier of a prospect for the right to trade for him and pay him more than they think he's worth? That's why people say he is important to the 2022 Twins, but he's got little value on the trade market.
    The Mets very well may have been willing to eat almost all of his contract at the deadline, but they would've been asking for the Twins to send prospects with him to balance it out. So the Twins would be sending prospects out just so they could get out from under his contract. If you're trying to win in 2022 that would make sense as long as you're bringing in MLB players with the saved money. So they'd basically be trading prospects for the chance to sign a pitcher or SS with the 21/25M saved while creating a hole at 3B. If they miss on all the top guys in that price range and are stuck signing multiple lower level guys for that extra 21/25M they'd have traded the better player plus prospects for the chance to sign 2 or 3 mid-level guys. That's awful asset management. 
  13. Like
    chpettit19 got a reaction from wabene in No Half Measures   
    Paying another team to have him play for them is still dead weight. Kicking in $25M still means that's $25M the Twins won't be spending the next 2 years on new contracts. I don't think the payroll of the other team matters that much in instances like this. Donaldson wouldn't get 2 years $50M for a contract this offseason if he was a FA. Unless the Twins are adding prospects on their side no team is taking on the 2 years $50M left on his deal. Even if they're the yanks or dodgers. The Twins would have to kick in money no matter who they trade him to. A pretty significant amount probably.
    The question is what would other teams be willing to give him if he were a FA. The Braves were the only team close (reportedly) when he signed 2 years ago. So teams didn't think he was worth the original deal then so they likely don't think he's worth what's left now. No team is going to send back anything worthwhile and also take on more $ than Donaldson is worth. To get out from under real money they likely have to kick in prospects of their own and I think that'd be significantly worse than just keeping him. There's no reason to believe he'll be significantly worse in 2022 than in 2021 as he's pretty notoriously dedicated to the craft of hitting. He won't be worth the $50M he still has on his deal over the next 2 years as his defense declines more, but I think he's still worth more hitting well for the Twins than the Twins paying another team to have him hit well for them.
    I think best case is he gets off to a crazy hot start next year and you can trade him at the deadline if the team is struggling. Would likely have to pay less to move him next season than this offseason.
  14. Like
    chpettit19 got a reaction from wabene in No Half Measures   
    I don't think the bolded part is true. The Twins are going to have to eat money whether they get a good prospect or me in return. They're not saving enough money to sign Thor simply by trading Donaldson. That's why I don't think it makes sense to trade him now. The Twins will simply have to eat too much money to move him and then you're getting worse while not freeing up money to improve elsewhere.
  15. Like
    chpettit19 got a reaction from wabene in No Half Measures   
    I see very little chance of getting a quality return for JD during the offseason. Either you're eating a ton of money and watching your team get worse while hoping on a lottery ticket prospect, or you're eating a little money while watching your team get worse and getting nothing in return. I think waiting til the deadline is a smarter move. He's got less money on the books and if he's raking again somebody will want him. If the team is doing well and he's raking then you keep him as that was the plan when you gave him the deal to start. Obviously take calls and listen to any offers, but if I'm the Twins FO I'm not actively shopping him during the offseason. 
  16. Like
    chpettit19 got a reaction from Squirrel in No Half Measures   
    Paying another team to have him play for them is still dead weight. Kicking in $25M still means that's $25M the Twins won't be spending the next 2 years on new contracts. I don't think the payroll of the other team matters that much in instances like this. Donaldson wouldn't get 2 years $50M for a contract this offseason if he was a FA. Unless the Twins are adding prospects on their side no team is taking on the 2 years $50M left on his deal. Even if they're the yanks or dodgers. The Twins would have to kick in money no matter who they trade him to. A pretty significant amount probably.
    The question is what would other teams be willing to give him if he were a FA. The Braves were the only team close (reportedly) when he signed 2 years ago. So teams didn't think he was worth the original deal then so they likely don't think he's worth what's left now. No team is going to send back anything worthwhile and also take on more $ than Donaldson is worth. To get out from under real money they likely have to kick in prospects of their own and I think that'd be significantly worse than just keeping him. There's no reason to believe he'll be significantly worse in 2022 than in 2021 as he's pretty notoriously dedicated to the craft of hitting. He won't be worth the $50M he still has on his deal over the next 2 years as his defense declines more, but I think he's still worth more hitting well for the Twins than the Twins paying another team to have him hit well for them.
    I think best case is he gets off to a crazy hot start next year and you can trade him at the deadline if the team is struggling. Would likely have to pay less to move him next season than this offseason.
  17. Like
  18. Yikes, Bro
    chpettit19 reacted to D.C Twins in 6 Questions that Will Determine the Twins' Offseason Course   
    0% chance Buxton signs and extension. If an extension were to have happened it would have only made sense from his side 1-2 years ago.
    0% chance of filling all of the holes in the starting rotation AND the bullpen.
    Poor chance of being meaningfully competitive next year..
    SO.....
    Trade Buxton for great prospects. Call up Celelstino and let him learn on the job. Go with the kids in the starting rotation and see what we have in 2022 before signing FA in 2023. Ditto for our internal bullpen arms.
    Trade Donaldson for the best salary relief/prospect package available and let Miranda join Celestino. Let Sano try to be relevant one more time (nobody will trade anything for him anyway). Trade Garver (on borrowed time as 30 y/o catcher) and let Jeffers/Ro combo learn. Trade Kepler if there is a good offer (which there won't be so he stays). Sign one of the top 5 shortstops (good defense behind young pitchers while transitioning team into contenders....Also, Lewis is waaaaay far away and may never make it)
    2022 for internal scouting and development.....2023 add what you learn that you need through FA/trades after 2022 information gathering.
    Regular season competitive with 1st round defeat in 2023 developing into playoff competitive in 2024 with potential for deep playoff run...
    That is the most realistic scenario to me.
     
     
     
     
     
    5
  19. Like
    chpettit19 got a reaction from Squirrel in No Half Measures   
    I don't think the bolded part is true. The Twins are going to have to eat money whether they get a good prospect or me in return. They're not saving enough money to sign Thor simply by trading Donaldson. That's why I don't think it makes sense to trade him now. The Twins will simply have to eat too much money to move him and then you're getting worse while not freeing up money to improve elsewhere.
  20. Like
    chpettit19 reacted to tony&rodney in No Half Measures   
    Donaldson and Sano have flaws and injury concerns, but their upsides are huge. There is room for both Sano and Donaldson in the lineup between 3B, 1B, and DH even if one has a desire to see Kirilloff at 1B and Miranda getting at bats. The rookies have the ability to fill in at a corner outfield spot and Miranda can also play 2B. The Twins expect anther good year from Josh Donaldson and a team would have to offer a legitimate player and pick up his contract for a trade to happen. That doesn't seem too likely. Finally, a part of signing a decent free agent is how a team treats those players after they sign. I believe part of the Twins everyday usage of Simmons after the trade deadline was out of respect for their shortstop. Donaldson stays.
  21. Like
    chpettit19 reacted to Squirrel in No Half Measures   
    This isn’t an either/or between Donaldson or Buxton, or anyone else for that matter, in regards to salary resources. Having Donaldson on the team does not preclude that we then can’t sign Buxton and a SS and top of the rotation pitcher, imo. Further, we would still likely have to pay a LOT of his salary in a trade or get less of a player return, neither which makes it worth trading him. And trading Donaldson now immediately worsens the team for next year, both defensively and offensively. I agree Miranda has nothing left to prove in AAA, and wish he’d been given some playing time in the majors this year, but we need to see Miranda adjust to the bigs, both offensively and defensively, before we jettison that strength we have by having Donaldson on the team. Get Miranda playing time with the Twins next year and see what we have. Just because he did well in AAA does not mean an immediately successful player in the majors. How many times have we seen that … someone good in the minors not be all that in the majors? A LOT. The best is to keep Donaldson for now, and rotate Miranda in next year and if he looks competent, THEN look to trade Donaldson. Donaldson holds a lot of value to the Twins next year, imo, and trading him now would be horribly short-sighted.
  22. Like
    chpettit19 reacted to Minny505 in Ranking the Top Free Agent Shortstop Options   
    If it is for a one-year or even a sub-$20mil multiyear deal, this would be the best outcome. 
    There is enough data and case studies out there now that we know the home/road splits for Rockies batters mean nothing when they put on a new uni. Almost every hitter, after leaving, plays to their cumulative numbers.
    Vacillating between 5000 feet and 500 feet every few days makes adjusting to pitch movement almost impossible.  You can dig into the data and see that every consecutive game that is played at home or on the road sees offensive numbers of Rockies batters improve. 
    On the flip side, most hitters from visiting teams do not see much of an increase in OPS in Colorado because of the short adjustment period. This has lead to the Rockies having a top 5 home record in MLB over the last half dozen years despite having a losing record overall. 
  23. Like
    chpettit19 reacted to TwinsAce in Ranking the Top Free Agent Shortstop Options   
    Agree with USAFChief in that a QO doesn't matter if the Twins are able to sign a top pitcher or top SS (for more than a 1 year deal.) 

    Also, not really sure why people are down on Story for defense (or Correa/Baez).  If I'm reading the various sites correctly, OAA is the only defensive stat that was down on Story.  It also seemed to be related to LHB and moving to his left, so I'm curious if shifting or lack of shifting hurt him this year.  I think it could based on the picture below?  But again, defensive stats are still not perfect.
    To me, I'd be pushing Story's camp to find out if he is interested in the Twins and what they are looking for in $$ and years. If he's interested in a shorter prove-it deal of 1-3 years, I'd be all over that. At worse, he provides offense at a much higher level than Simmons and defense at a similar or slightly worse level. At best, he figures out non-Coors field hitting at an All-star level and provides gold glove defense. 
    I would probably only worry about him if they are looking for $30+ million a year or 5+ years.  Which...there is still probably a 50/50 chance he gets one or both of those this offseason. 
    One potential bonus of signing a top SS if that you could feel better about including a SS prospect in a trade for a pitcher.  Maybe we could trade Jermaine Palacios for Odorizzi? 😅 


  24. Like
    chpettit19 reacted to USAFChief in Ranking the Top Free Agent Shortstop Options   
    Losing a third round pick to solidify SS for half a decade seems like a pretty reasonable outcome to me.  And that's the WORST case scenario.
  25. Like
    chpettit19 got a reaction from Minny505 in No Half Measures   
    JD is the best fielding 3B the Twins have. You'd want Miranda, etc. to rotate through 1B before you move JD over there and hurt your defense.
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