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chpettit19

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  1. Like
    chpettit19 reacted to jmlease1 in Let Me Talk About Catchers   
    are you just trolling in every thread now? Jeffers is a far superior defensive catcher by basically any possible metric, including the eye test. Astudillo got few chances at catcher this year because the Twins know he's not really any good back there. (Jeffers, even through his struggles, was a more valuable hitter at catcher as well)
    Astudillo is a fun player and obviously a likable guy, but he's not any kind of solution at catcher and doesn't hit or defend enough to deserve a spot on the 40-man, let alone the MLB roster.
  2. Like
    chpettit19 got a reaction from roger in Settling in at Shortstop   
    I didn't mean be an above average hitter for the league as a whole, I meant hit well enough to play as a glove only SS in the majors. Take Simmons for example. He can still field the position, but he can't even hit well enough to even be a glove first major league SS anymore. He barely hit enough when he was an all world glove at the position. The hitting standards for a glove first SS aren't terribly high, and I don't think the Twins have anyone who can even meet those standards while also fielding as well as you need to at that position to warrant a major league spot. The Miller kid they just drafted may fit the bill, but he's a fresh out of high school signing so he's not an answer anytime soon.
  3. Like
    chpettit19 got a reaction from TopGunn#22 in Settling in at Shortstop   
    Michael Brantley is under contract with the Houston Astros in 2022. Are the Astros cutting him and eating $16M or are the Twins trading for him and taking on $16M while also trying to sign Ray or Syndergaard, Duffy, and Grienke and, presumably, extending Buxton (don't think they'd like to start 2022 with him if he isn't under long-term control)?
  4. Like
    chpettit19 got a reaction from TopGunn#22 in Settling in at Shortstop   
    I don't think the Twins have a major league SS in their system right now. I think it's the biggest failure of this FO. There are guys I think will hit at the ML level and guys who can field at the major league level, but nobody who can do both. I think the Twins should make a legit push for one of the big name guys on a 5 or 6 year deal. I think Baez or Story could be had for less than the other superstar shortstops. I don't know if they'd be interested in coming here (Baez may want to stay with his friend Lindor in NY and run that back next year), but I think the Twins should make a run at those big name guys. Donaldson has 2 expensive years left, but the Twins don't really have other big price tag guys around for multiple years. Extend Buxton and bring in one of these SSs to pair with Polanco in the middle for the next few years. 
    I know the Twins need pitching, but that needs to come from the prospect pipeline. I hope they go after some big name guys and maybe sign 1 of them this offseason, but for the sustained success they want to have they need to produce arms internally. With the youth movement happening now and so many guys on pre-arb and arb deals for the next handful of years I think they can afford both a Buxton extension and a big time SS. Lock up the middle of the field with Buxton, Polanco, and a FA SS. They have plenty of young guys to handle the corners.
  5. Like
    chpettit19 reacted to Vanimal46 in Settling in at Shortstop   
    I hope Polanco remains at 2B. His skillset was stretched thin before his 2 ankle surgeries. Keep him at 2B and let him rake at the plate. 
    I am in full agreement with @chpettit19believing there isn’t a true SS prospect in the organization. I want to take advantage of this historic SS free agent class and land one of Seager, Correa, or Baez. I simply won’t believe they’ll spend big money on pitching until I see it. There’s better odds they’ll do it for an everyday position player at a premium spot like SS. 
  6. Like
    chpettit19 got a reaction from Vanimal46 in Settling in at Shortstop   
    I don't think the Twins have a major league SS in their system right now. I think it's the biggest failure of this FO. There are guys I think will hit at the ML level and guys who can field at the major league level, but nobody who can do both. I think the Twins should make a legit push for one of the big name guys on a 5 or 6 year deal. I think Baez or Story could be had for less than the other superstar shortstops. I don't know if they'd be interested in coming here (Baez may want to stay with his friend Lindor in NY and run that back next year), but I think the Twins should make a run at those big name guys. Donaldson has 2 expensive years left, but the Twins don't really have other big price tag guys around for multiple years. Extend Buxton and bring in one of these SSs to pair with Polanco in the middle for the next few years. 
    I know the Twins need pitching, but that needs to come from the prospect pipeline. I hope they go after some big name guys and maybe sign 1 of them this offseason, but for the sustained success they want to have they need to produce arms internally. With the youth movement happening now and so many guys on pre-arb and arb deals for the next handful of years I think they can afford both a Buxton extension and a big time SS. Lock up the middle of the field with Buxton, Polanco, and a FA SS. They have plenty of young guys to handle the corners.
  7. Like
    chpettit19 got a reaction from Doctor Gast in Settling in at Shortstop   
    I don't think the Twins have a major league SS in their system right now. I think it's the biggest failure of this FO. There are guys I think will hit at the ML level and guys who can field at the major league level, but nobody who can do both. I think the Twins should make a legit push for one of the big name guys on a 5 or 6 year deal. I think Baez or Story could be had for less than the other superstar shortstops. I don't know if they'd be interested in coming here (Baez may want to stay with his friend Lindor in NY and run that back next year), but I think the Twins should make a run at those big name guys. Donaldson has 2 expensive years left, but the Twins don't really have other big price tag guys around for multiple years. Extend Buxton and bring in one of these SSs to pair with Polanco in the middle for the next few years. 
    I know the Twins need pitching, but that needs to come from the prospect pipeline. I hope they go after some big name guys and maybe sign 1 of them this offseason, but for the sustained success they want to have they need to produce arms internally. With the youth movement happening now and so many guys on pre-arb and arb deals for the next handful of years I think they can afford both a Buxton extension and a big time SS. Lock up the middle of the field with Buxton, Polanco, and a FA SS. They have plenty of young guys to handle the corners.
  8. Like
    chpettit19 got a reaction from DocBauer in Settling in at Shortstop   
    I don't think the Twins have a major league SS in their system right now. I think it's the biggest failure of this FO. There are guys I think will hit at the ML level and guys who can field at the major league level, but nobody who can do both. I think the Twins should make a legit push for one of the big name guys on a 5 or 6 year deal. I think Baez or Story could be had for less than the other superstar shortstops. I don't know if they'd be interested in coming here (Baez may want to stay with his friend Lindor in NY and run that back next year), but I think the Twins should make a run at those big name guys. Donaldson has 2 expensive years left, but the Twins don't really have other big price tag guys around for multiple years. Extend Buxton and bring in one of these SSs to pair with Polanco in the middle for the next few years. 
    I know the Twins need pitching, but that needs to come from the prospect pipeline. I hope they go after some big name guys and maybe sign 1 of them this offseason, but for the sustained success they want to have they need to produce arms internally. With the youth movement happening now and so many guys on pre-arb and arb deals for the next handful of years I think they can afford both a Buxton extension and a big time SS. Lock up the middle of the field with Buxton, Polanco, and a FA SS. They have plenty of young guys to handle the corners.
  9. Like
    chpettit19 got a reaction from kenbuddha in Grading Falvey's Drafts   
    Again, you're ignoring the timeline. Players from 2000 had 16 years(!) to make it to the majors and accumulate WAR in that study. Larnach has had 3, with one of those being a pandemic cancelled minor league season. That article isn't even bold enough to try to grade drafts 4 or fewer years removed. They waited a minimum of 6 to start looking at things. That's the point. I can appreciate you not liking the Twins draft strategy, and agree that they have boxed themselves in with guys like Sabato and Rooker who are bat only (I never liked the Rooker pick), but giving the FO F's on Cavaco and Sabato especially is outlandish to me. Sabato is putting up Sano type lines now. If he has a Sano type career that's a win for the FO. Your post was meant to grade the FO for their drafts, but you just can't do that at this point.
    I mean you've written Larnach off after his first taste of the bigs when he was called up before he was ready. I can't even imagine how badly you'd shred the Giants for the Joey Bart pick at #2 in 2018. Or Alec Bohm at #3. The league found a hole in Larnach's swing and beat it to death. That's the game. Now he needs to close it and come back next year having made an adjustment. His college and minor league performances suggest he'll make an adjustment and come back at some point next year and have made an adjustment. We'll see.
    To me, there simply isn't enough data to provide the grades you are. It's ignoring the reality of the baseball draft and prospect development. It's really just you saying you don't agree with their "get possible difference making bats early" strategy. And that's totally cool. But it's nothing more than that. And that's totally cool, too. I appreciate the work that went into pulling this all together, and the back and forth on it, but this exercise is super premature. You simply can't judge these things this quickly.
  10. Like
    chpettit19 got a reaction from kenbuddha in Grading Falvey's Drafts   
    So here's my concern. You mention it isn't uncommon for college players to reach MLB in 3-4 years, and I agree. You've used stats in the comments to show the percent of players who make it to MLB at all based on round drafted (and I'll add that it's 17.6% of all drafted players ever make the bigs). I provided data that only 83 out of the usual 1200ish players drafted in any single year (7%) ever reach at least 0.1 WAR. In their entire career, not within 3-4 years. You seem to be mixing "making it to MLB" with "establishing/doing well in MLB." If the mark is simply making it that's one thing, if it's doing well that's another. And I get that it plays into your grade of "C," but the tone of the original post and your comments following is more that the Twins are failing or that "C" isn't actually good enough. The FO has 2 draft classes that are 3-4 years removed from their draft year. Here are the results of their classes as far as who's reached MLB already and their bWAR:
    2017: Lewis, Enlow
    Rooker (-0.2)
    Barnes (-0.4)
    Ober (0.9)
    2018: Sands, WInder
    Larnach (0.9)
    Jeffers (1.1)

    So they've had 5 college guys reach MLB within 3-4 years (Jeffers 2, Rooker and Larnach 3, Barnes and Ober 4) with a pandemic year sandwiched in the middle of their development. They've had 3 guys already reach more than 0.1 WAR. 2 of those did it within 2 or 3 years of being drafted. Arguments could be made that Lewis, Enlow, Sands, Winder, and Canterino would've debuted this year were it not for injuries which would give them 10 guys to have debuted in MLB between 2 and 4 years (including 2 HS picks) of being drafted with a pandemic ruined season mixed in.
    I just think it's far too early to judge their drafting, or drafting and developing, beyond comparisons to things like MLB.com, etc. rankings that teams couldn't care less about as they're based on far less data than their internal rankings. I appreciate the the dialogue, though. Fun to have some back and forth about this stuff. I just disagree with labeling any 20 year old with less than a season's worth of ABs a near bust already, or even a college kid just wrapping up his first season. Bust is too strong of a word for me. Appreciate the effort that went into doing all this, though!
  11. Like
    chpettit19 got a reaction from kenbuddha in Grading Falvey's Drafts   
    Do 2/3, 1/2, 1/3 make it within 3 years of being drafted and with a missed year of minor league baseball? Because that's what you're judging Larnach by right now. My guess would be those numbers refer to their entire careers and simply making an MLB roster at some point. I mean Drew Maggi technically made it to the majors as a 15th round pick now. This just feels like you're missing a lot of context. What number of players from the 2017, 18, 19, 20, 21 drafts have made it to the majors, how many games have they played, and how are they performing? That's what you need to compare these guys to.
    According to a baseball america article from 2019 only about 83 guys from each draft ever accumulate even 0.1 WAR. Trevor Larnach is already at 0.5 and Jeffers is at 1.1. So with a completely lost season of development and within 3 years of being drafted those 2 are already within the top 83 players of what that entire draft class will produce on average and have basically filled the Twins quota for the 2018 draft.
    According to fangraphs the chances of a top 5 pick never accumulating 1.5 WAR in their career is 60%. 6-10 is 65%, 11-15 71%, 16-20 85%, 21-25 76%, and 26-30 84%. It's more likely than not that anyone drafted, even at the top of the draft will never get even 1.5 WAR. Odds of finding someone who produces over 2.5 WAR for picks 1-5 is 11%, 6-10 is 15%, 11-15 11%, 16-20 5%, 21-25 11%, 26-30 5%. Anyone picked after pick 15 has about a 5% chance of accumulating even 2.5 WAR for their entire career. I think we need to lower the expectations for what Falvey draftees should have produced by now. I mean Jeffers has already out performed his draft position within 3 years and in the middle of a pandemic, and as stated above they've already met their quota for players who reach 0.1 WAR for the 2018 draft. What more do you want?
  12. Like
    chpettit19 got a reaction from kenbuddha in Grading Falvey's Drafts   
    I guess for me it comes down to what your expectations are. You say you're almost ready to label Cavaco and Sabato busts despite them having 1 year of professional ball under their belt. That seems incredibly aggressive to me. Cavaco has 332 total minor league ABs in 88 total games (according to MLB.com). Sabato has 361 in 107. That's less than 1 season of play and you're saying they're already likely busts? That's some tough grading right there.
    I haven't been overly impressed with their drafts (I did like the Lewis, Larnach, and Petty picks), but I don't think they've been awful (Cavaco has the athleticism that creates the type of ceiling you want with a 1st round pick and Sabato absolutely crushed some of the best college baseball talent during his 2 years in NC). If Lewis had reached the majors last year or this year as was predicted before a pandemic and freak knee injury ruined both those plans I think things look a lot different.
    In a season ticket holder Q and A Levine spoke a little to their draft strategy. They feel the data shows that getting high end, elite bats later in the draft is much harder than finding impact pitching. They feel that your best chance to get game changing hitters is to get them early and that's what they were attempting to do with the bats they took. Their approach is to go after guys with elite tools (Lewis and Cavaco) or guys who dominated college baseball (Larnach, Sabato, Rooker, Wallner, Soularie) and look like they could have game changing bats. They believe they can turn pitchers with an already elite pitch into more complete pitchers and can get those guys later. That's their approach to pitching in general, actually. Find a guy with a pitch they can already put in their back pocket (Ryan fb, Petty fb, Wisler slider, Maeda split, Pineda slider, Duran fb, etc) and then use their technology based coaching to develop more pitches (Balazovic, really good article on the athletic today about his new splitter), add velo (Ober), or improve control (hopefully improve everyone's). Now you can certainly debate if that's the correct strategy (I know it's pretty universally accepted that you take a bat over an arm if they're closely ranked as bats are more likely to turn out) or if they've executed their vision well. But I think it's important to at least take their strategy and goals into consideration.
    I also think expectations on baseball draft prospects need to be tempered to a great degree. As Dman pointed out, the success rate is miniscule. To truly evaluate any FO and their ability to draft and develop you need to compare them to every other drafted and developed player. Like is Larnach really that far behind his 2018 draft class peers? I'd argue no. There aren't a bunch of them taking the league by storm already. He's among the handful that have made it to the bigs, and none of them are world beaters yet. I wouldn't say he's the best of the bunch by any means, but he's not getting drastically outdone by the players taken after him or anything. To me it's too early to judge these drafts, or their draft and development ability at all. It's a total incomplete grade to me.
  13. Like
    chpettit19 reacted to MN_ExPat in Grading Falvey's Drafts   
    There's one major flaw with that analogy though.  First off not all D1 baseball is created equal.  Then, only the best of college ball as a whole (regardless of level btw) will get a chance to even show their stuff in professional ball.  So at this point (Low A/Rookie Ball), regardless of the developmental time line, players are already facing the best players in the country.  It's like the NCAA Tournament on uber steroids.
    Also, pitchers with "amazing stuff" do stay in A Ball if they have a hard time figuring things out (or they get released), you don't promote guys just to promote them.
    I think I understand where you are coming from, but one can simply NOT equate college ball with professional ball.  It isn't even in the same realm.
  14. Like
    chpettit19 got a reaction from MN_ExPat in Grading Falvey's Drafts   
    Again, you're ignoring the timeline. Players from 2000 had 16 years(!) to make it to the majors and accumulate WAR in that study. Larnach has had 3, with one of those being a pandemic cancelled minor league season. That article isn't even bold enough to try to grade drafts 4 or fewer years removed. They waited a minimum of 6 to start looking at things. That's the point. I can appreciate you not liking the Twins draft strategy, and agree that they have boxed themselves in with guys like Sabato and Rooker who are bat only (I never liked the Rooker pick), but giving the FO F's on Cavaco and Sabato especially is outlandish to me. Sabato is putting up Sano type lines now. If he has a Sano type career that's a win for the FO. Your post was meant to grade the FO for their drafts, but you just can't do that at this point.
    I mean you've written Larnach off after his first taste of the bigs when he was called up before he was ready. I can't even imagine how badly you'd shred the Giants for the Joey Bart pick at #2 in 2018. Or Alec Bohm at #3. The league found a hole in Larnach's swing and beat it to death. That's the game. Now he needs to close it and come back next year having made an adjustment. His college and minor league performances suggest he'll make an adjustment and come back at some point next year and have made an adjustment. We'll see.
    To me, there simply isn't enough data to provide the grades you are. It's ignoring the reality of the baseball draft and prospect development. It's really just you saying you don't agree with their "get possible difference making bats early" strategy. And that's totally cool. But it's nothing more than that. And that's totally cool, too. I appreciate the work that went into pulling this all together, and the back and forth on it, but this exercise is super premature. You simply can't judge these things this quickly.
  15. Like
    chpettit19 got a reaction from Squirrel in Grading Falvey's Drafts   
    Again, you're ignoring the timeline. Players from 2000 had 16 years(!) to make it to the majors and accumulate WAR in that study. Larnach has had 3, with one of those being a pandemic cancelled minor league season. That article isn't even bold enough to try to grade drafts 4 or fewer years removed. They waited a minimum of 6 to start looking at things. That's the point. I can appreciate you not liking the Twins draft strategy, and agree that they have boxed themselves in with guys like Sabato and Rooker who are bat only (I never liked the Rooker pick), but giving the FO F's on Cavaco and Sabato especially is outlandish to me. Sabato is putting up Sano type lines now. If he has a Sano type career that's a win for the FO. Your post was meant to grade the FO for their drafts, but you just can't do that at this point.
    I mean you've written Larnach off after his first taste of the bigs when he was called up before he was ready. I can't even imagine how badly you'd shred the Giants for the Joey Bart pick at #2 in 2018. Or Alec Bohm at #3. The league found a hole in Larnach's swing and beat it to death. That's the game. Now he needs to close it and come back next year having made an adjustment. His college and minor league performances suggest he'll make an adjustment and come back at some point next year and have made an adjustment. We'll see.
    To me, there simply isn't enough data to provide the grades you are. It's ignoring the reality of the baseball draft and prospect development. It's really just you saying you don't agree with their "get possible difference making bats early" strategy. And that's totally cool. But it's nothing more than that. And that's totally cool, too. I appreciate the work that went into pulling this all together, and the back and forth on it, but this exercise is super premature. You simply can't judge these things this quickly.
  16. Like
    chpettit19 got a reaction from MN_ExPat in Grading Falvey's Drafts   
    Ok, give Larnach 0.2 WAR. He's still outdone what 93% of that entire class will do for their entire careers. How does that earn him a C? In the schools I went to being in the top 93% was an A. That's my problem. You're not using historical data and are crushing, or at least downgrading, picks that have either done better than you're giving them credit for or haven't had nearly enough time to make any kind of reasonable assessment of. Your expectations just aren't in line with MLB draft reality. Moral of this story is 4 years isn't enough time to grade a draft pick, let alone less than a season.
     
  17. Like
    chpettit19 got a reaction from MN_ExPat in Grading Falvey's Drafts   
    I think the disconnect here is that you provided data on how many players make MLB, not "succeed" (however you define that). So in the context of the data you provided those guys are "legit" in that they've made MLB and have fulfilled the criteria you provided.
  18. Like
    chpettit19 got a reaction from MN_ExPat in Grading Falvey's Drafts   
    So here's my concern. You mention it isn't uncommon for college players to reach MLB in 3-4 years, and I agree. You've used stats in the comments to show the percent of players who make it to MLB at all based on round drafted (and I'll add that it's 17.6% of all drafted players ever make the bigs). I provided data that only 83 out of the usual 1200ish players drafted in any single year (7%) ever reach at least 0.1 WAR. In their entire career, not within 3-4 years. You seem to be mixing "making it to MLB" with "establishing/doing well in MLB." If the mark is simply making it that's one thing, if it's doing well that's another. And I get that it plays into your grade of "C," but the tone of the original post and your comments following is more that the Twins are failing or that "C" isn't actually good enough. The FO has 2 draft classes that are 3-4 years removed from their draft year. Here are the results of their classes as far as who's reached MLB already and their bWAR:
    2017: Lewis, Enlow
    Rooker (-0.2)
    Barnes (-0.4)
    Ober (0.9)
    2018: Sands, WInder
    Larnach (0.9)
    Jeffers (1.1)

    So they've had 5 college guys reach MLB within 3-4 years (Jeffers 2, Rooker and Larnach 3, Barnes and Ober 4) with a pandemic year sandwiched in the middle of their development. They've had 3 guys already reach more than 0.1 WAR. 2 of those did it within 2 or 3 years of being drafted. Arguments could be made that Lewis, Enlow, Sands, Winder, and Canterino would've debuted this year were it not for injuries which would give them 10 guys to have debuted in MLB between 2 and 4 years (including 2 HS picks) of being drafted with a pandemic ruined season mixed in.
    I just think it's far too early to judge their drafting, or drafting and developing, beyond comparisons to things like MLB.com, etc. rankings that teams couldn't care less about as they're based on far less data than their internal rankings. I appreciate the the dialogue, though. Fun to have some back and forth about this stuff. I just disagree with labeling any 20 year old with less than a season's worth of ABs a near bust already, or even a college kid just wrapping up his first season. Bust is too strong of a word for me. Appreciate the effort that went into doing all this, though!
  19. Like
    chpettit19 got a reaction from RonCoomersOPS in Grading Falvey's Drafts   
    Ok, give Larnach 0.2 WAR. He's still outdone what 93% of that entire class will do for their entire careers. How does that earn him a C? In the schools I went to being in the top 93% was an A. That's my problem. You're not using historical data and are crushing, or at least downgrading, picks that have either done better than you're giving them credit for or haven't had nearly enough time to make any kind of reasonable assessment of. Your expectations just aren't in line with MLB draft reality. Moral of this story is 4 years isn't enough time to grade a draft pick, let alone less than a season.
     
  20. Like
    chpettit19 got a reaction from Dman in Grading Falvey's Drafts   
    Ok, give Larnach 0.2 WAR. He's still outdone what 93% of that entire class will do for their entire careers. How does that earn him a C? In the schools I went to being in the top 93% was an A. That's my problem. You're not using historical data and are crushing, or at least downgrading, picks that have either done better than you're giving them credit for or haven't had nearly enough time to make any kind of reasonable assessment of. Your expectations just aren't in line with MLB draft reality. Moral of this story is 4 years isn't enough time to grade a draft pick, let alone less than a season.
     
  21. Like
    chpettit19 got a reaction from Dman in Grading Falvey's Drafts   
    So here's my concern. You mention it isn't uncommon for college players to reach MLB in 3-4 years, and I agree. You've used stats in the comments to show the percent of players who make it to MLB at all based on round drafted (and I'll add that it's 17.6% of all drafted players ever make the bigs). I provided data that only 83 out of the usual 1200ish players drafted in any single year (7%) ever reach at least 0.1 WAR. In their entire career, not within 3-4 years. You seem to be mixing "making it to MLB" with "establishing/doing well in MLB." If the mark is simply making it that's one thing, if it's doing well that's another. And I get that it plays into your grade of "C," but the tone of the original post and your comments following is more that the Twins are failing or that "C" isn't actually good enough. The FO has 2 draft classes that are 3-4 years removed from their draft year. Here are the results of their classes as far as who's reached MLB already and their bWAR:
    2017: Lewis, Enlow
    Rooker (-0.2)
    Barnes (-0.4)
    Ober (0.9)
    2018: Sands, WInder
    Larnach (0.9)
    Jeffers (1.1)

    So they've had 5 college guys reach MLB within 3-4 years (Jeffers 2, Rooker and Larnach 3, Barnes and Ober 4) with a pandemic year sandwiched in the middle of their development. They've had 3 guys already reach more than 0.1 WAR. 2 of those did it within 2 or 3 years of being drafted. Arguments could be made that Lewis, Enlow, Sands, Winder, and Canterino would've debuted this year were it not for injuries which would give them 10 guys to have debuted in MLB between 2 and 4 years (including 2 HS picks) of being drafted with a pandemic ruined season mixed in.
    I just think it's far too early to judge their drafting, or drafting and developing, beyond comparisons to things like MLB.com, etc. rankings that teams couldn't care less about as they're based on far less data than their internal rankings. I appreciate the the dialogue, though. Fun to have some back and forth about this stuff. I just disagree with labeling any 20 year old with less than a season's worth of ABs a near bust already, or even a college kid just wrapping up his first season. Bust is too strong of a word for me. Appreciate the effort that went into doing all this, though!
  22. Like
    chpettit19 got a reaction from Dman in Grading Falvey's Drafts   
    Do 2/3, 1/2, 1/3 make it within 3 years of being drafted and with a missed year of minor league baseball? Because that's what you're judging Larnach by right now. My guess would be those numbers refer to their entire careers and simply making an MLB roster at some point. I mean Drew Maggi technically made it to the majors as a 15th round pick now. This just feels like you're missing a lot of context. What number of players from the 2017, 18, 19, 20, 21 drafts have made it to the majors, how many games have they played, and how are they performing? That's what you need to compare these guys to.
    According to a baseball america article from 2019 only about 83 guys from each draft ever accumulate even 0.1 WAR. Trevor Larnach is already at 0.5 and Jeffers is at 1.1. So with a completely lost season of development and within 3 years of being drafted those 2 are already within the top 83 players of what that entire draft class will produce on average and have basically filled the Twins quota for the 2018 draft.
    According to fangraphs the chances of a top 5 pick never accumulating 1.5 WAR in their career is 60%. 6-10 is 65%, 11-15 71%, 16-20 85%, 21-25 76%, and 26-30 84%. It's more likely than not that anyone drafted, even at the top of the draft will never get even 1.5 WAR. Odds of finding someone who produces over 2.5 WAR for picks 1-5 is 11%, 6-10 is 15%, 11-15 11%, 16-20 5%, 21-25 11%, 26-30 5%. Anyone picked after pick 15 has about a 5% chance of accumulating even 2.5 WAR for their entire career. I think we need to lower the expectations for what Falvey draftees should have produced by now. I mean Jeffers has already out performed his draft position within 3 years and in the middle of a pandemic, and as stated above they've already met their quota for players who reach 0.1 WAR for the 2018 draft. What more do you want?
  23. Like
    chpettit19 got a reaction from Squirrel in Grading Falvey's Drafts   
    So here's my concern. You mention it isn't uncommon for college players to reach MLB in 3-4 years, and I agree. You've used stats in the comments to show the percent of players who make it to MLB at all based on round drafted (and I'll add that it's 17.6% of all drafted players ever make the bigs). I provided data that only 83 out of the usual 1200ish players drafted in any single year (7%) ever reach at least 0.1 WAR. In their entire career, not within 3-4 years. You seem to be mixing "making it to MLB" with "establishing/doing well in MLB." If the mark is simply making it that's one thing, if it's doing well that's another. And I get that it plays into your grade of "C," but the tone of the original post and your comments following is more that the Twins are failing or that "C" isn't actually good enough. The FO has 2 draft classes that are 3-4 years removed from their draft year. Here are the results of their classes as far as who's reached MLB already and their bWAR:
    2017: Lewis, Enlow
    Rooker (-0.2)
    Barnes (-0.4)
    Ober (0.9)
    2018: Sands, WInder
    Larnach (0.9)
    Jeffers (1.1)

    So they've had 5 college guys reach MLB within 3-4 years (Jeffers 2, Rooker and Larnach 3, Barnes and Ober 4) with a pandemic year sandwiched in the middle of their development. They've had 3 guys already reach more than 0.1 WAR. 2 of those did it within 2 or 3 years of being drafted. Arguments could be made that Lewis, Enlow, Sands, Winder, and Canterino would've debuted this year were it not for injuries which would give them 10 guys to have debuted in MLB between 2 and 4 years (including 2 HS picks) of being drafted with a pandemic ruined season mixed in.
    I just think it's far too early to judge their drafting, or drafting and developing, beyond comparisons to things like MLB.com, etc. rankings that teams couldn't care less about as they're based on far less data than their internal rankings. I appreciate the the dialogue, though. Fun to have some back and forth about this stuff. I just disagree with labeling any 20 year old with less than a season's worth of ABs a near bust already, or even a college kid just wrapping up his first season. Bust is too strong of a word for me. Appreciate the effort that went into doing all this, though!
  24. Like
    chpettit19 got a reaction from TwinsAce in Grading Falvey's Drafts   
    Do 2/3, 1/2, 1/3 make it within 3 years of being drafted and with a missed year of minor league baseball? Because that's what you're judging Larnach by right now. My guess would be those numbers refer to their entire careers and simply making an MLB roster at some point. I mean Drew Maggi technically made it to the majors as a 15th round pick now. This just feels like you're missing a lot of context. What number of players from the 2017, 18, 19, 20, 21 drafts have made it to the majors, how many games have they played, and how are they performing? That's what you need to compare these guys to.
    According to a baseball america article from 2019 only about 83 guys from each draft ever accumulate even 0.1 WAR. Trevor Larnach is already at 0.5 and Jeffers is at 1.1. So with a completely lost season of development and within 3 years of being drafted those 2 are already within the top 83 players of what that entire draft class will produce on average and have basically filled the Twins quota for the 2018 draft.
    According to fangraphs the chances of a top 5 pick never accumulating 1.5 WAR in their career is 60%. 6-10 is 65%, 11-15 71%, 16-20 85%, 21-25 76%, and 26-30 84%. It's more likely than not that anyone drafted, even at the top of the draft will never get even 1.5 WAR. Odds of finding someone who produces over 2.5 WAR for picks 1-5 is 11%, 6-10 is 15%, 11-15 11%, 16-20 5%, 21-25 11%, 26-30 5%. Anyone picked after pick 15 has about a 5% chance of accumulating even 2.5 WAR for their entire career. I think we need to lower the expectations for what Falvey draftees should have produced by now. I mean Jeffers has already out performed his draft position within 3 years and in the middle of a pandemic, and as stated above they've already met their quota for players who reach 0.1 WAR for the 2018 draft. What more do you want?
  25. Like
    chpettit19 got a reaction from jkcarew in Grading Falvey's Drafts   
    Do 2/3, 1/2, 1/3 make it within 3 years of being drafted and with a missed year of minor league baseball? Because that's what you're judging Larnach by right now. My guess would be those numbers refer to their entire careers and simply making an MLB roster at some point. I mean Drew Maggi technically made it to the majors as a 15th round pick now. This just feels like you're missing a lot of context. What number of players from the 2017, 18, 19, 20, 21 drafts have made it to the majors, how many games have they played, and how are they performing? That's what you need to compare these guys to.
    According to a baseball america article from 2019 only about 83 guys from each draft ever accumulate even 0.1 WAR. Trevor Larnach is already at 0.5 and Jeffers is at 1.1. So with a completely lost season of development and within 3 years of being drafted those 2 are already within the top 83 players of what that entire draft class will produce on average and have basically filled the Twins quota for the 2018 draft.
    According to fangraphs the chances of a top 5 pick never accumulating 1.5 WAR in their career is 60%. 6-10 is 65%, 11-15 71%, 16-20 85%, 21-25 76%, and 26-30 84%. It's more likely than not that anyone drafted, even at the top of the draft will never get even 1.5 WAR. Odds of finding someone who produces over 2.5 WAR for picks 1-5 is 11%, 6-10 is 15%, 11-15 11%, 16-20 5%, 21-25 11%, 26-30 5%. Anyone picked after pick 15 has about a 5% chance of accumulating even 2.5 WAR for their entire career. I think we need to lower the expectations for what Falvey draftees should have produced by now. I mean Jeffers has already out performed his draft position within 3 years and in the middle of a pandemic, and as stated above they've already met their quota for players who reach 0.1 WAR for the 2018 draft. What more do you want?
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