IndyTwinsFan

Good summary Cody.  Some of these guys may be gone by the time we pick.  Where are we in the order of picking?
It seems counter productive for a contending team with a solid farm system to pick a rule5 player.  We should have proven vets in the lineup in order to contend.  I doubt that we have the patience to keep a rule5 player on the 26-man roster all season.
Given our farm system, I would assume that most of our internal options are better than any discards from other teams, but of course, I may be mistaken there.
They'll only take a guy if he is clearcut better than what we have.  The unfortunate part is that doesn't this draft take place at the winter meetings?  If so, it is done prior to most trades or FA pickups so it is difficult to know if we should draft someone or not.

I don’t see Pirates trading their ace. They’ve stated publicly that they’re looking to add arms this offseason. The deal, if they were to trade Keller, would have to include top pitching prospects that are near MLB ready. I doubt that Festa and SWR would be enough to get a deal done and I don’t like the idea of trading Festa. Hope that he’s ready to contribute by mid season. 
 
I do like one of Bader or Carlson to fill Taylor’s role. Who’s Correa’s backup if they trade Farmer? It’s not Polanco. I don’t think Castro or Gordon are MLB level SS. If Correa were to go down, Farmer is the only reasonable SS on the roster. 

Ok. Everyone repeat after me. Byron Buxton has a no trade clause. He is not going to be traded. He signed for less money so he could stay in Minnesota. He is not going to be traded. 

The reason you don't see players like this get traded is losing that trade can end the career of a GM. If they trade Jenkins they absolutely must win that trade or Falvey will lose his job. If they keep Jenkins and something happens to him where he doesn't fulfill his potential they won't blame Falvey.

So true.   So many call to add a pitcher, and RH bat.   The reality is in order to get we must give, and that means talent that is up and coming.   Top end prospects may have to be used in order to get that,  

Trading is about improving the future teams.  I would imagine most teams would want a crack at these 5 players.  Unless the trade would be viewed as the twins getting a massive over pay in trading any of these guys away, get used to seeing them at Target Field.  Of course Jenkins won’t be there until 26/27 at the earliest. Ownership at some point is going to really have to spend $$$ on player salaries so they better figure out marketing this team to increase the revenue stream. I doubt a blockbuster trade happens this off season for 2 reasons. 

The roster only needs a couple replacements and/or upgrades.

Those can be accomplished by FA ($20M available) and internal promotion/growth replacement. 
With that being said, If another team is going to overpay for someone and it makes us better then we will see a trade(s).  

Trivino worth a shot if cheap.
Don't want any LH former power hitters with no defensive position and high K rates.

@Doctor WuIve heard that Raya is a bulldog like Gray. He doesn’t hold back and smart enough to communicate with mgmnt  when he is gassed so he doesn’t blow the UCL. I believe when he was drafted there was talk about him not being physically mature yet so the whole limited pitches/innings plan fits with what what we have seen. So far he has developed well and is still really young so he could be super special.  
@DocBauer about the only prospects you didn't touch on are the home grown pitchers that have just got their feet wet in MLB.   As they mature, I believe they will all stick around for a few years.  A few years from now we may do a look back and be amazed at the success rate we have had from 2017-2023 drafted players vs. Who is in the show.  

It would sure be wonderful if one, or both, or those pitchers are capable of pitching a bunch of healthy innings this year.

I briefly mentioned Martin, along with the non-listed Camargo and Severino, in my previous post, but I wanted to address the actual OP for a moment:
JENKINS had about the best debut you could hope for. Personally, there is this little voice in my head that keeps asking, "could the 5th pick in the draft really be this good"? And I think that's just me trying to accept the fact that the 2023 draft was so top heavy with outstanding prospects that it's difficult to accept he might have been the #1 or #2 pick almost any other year. Our current FO has been far more aggressive with promotions, but they seem very calculated as well. I wouldn't be shocked if he went directly to Cedar Rapids to begin 2024, but a return to Ft Myers seems logical. Right now, I'd expect a mid year promotion, and a chance for AA Wichita for a few weeks just to get acclimated. Majors at 21yo in 2025? Hurray! But I'd be ecstatic if he was there at 22yo in 2026. I'm just being practical, not pessimistic. 
LEE will be up in 2024 at some point. IDEALLY, EVERYONE would be healthy and producing and we'd be screaming as to why he isn't being brought up NOW when he's raking at AAA. The whole 2B/3B issue with Lewis will resolve itself, no worries. 
RODRIGUEZ, well, other than staying healthy, the only thing I want to see is a better HIT TOOL taking place. With a good eye, and great power, it's my belief that his biggest "adjustment" will be being more aggressive in his AB's. It's one thing to lay off pitches and get BB, which he does a ton. As he gets to AA and above, he's going to see pitchers who fill the zone better. He actually reminds me a lot of Julien: the ability to work a count, look for a pitch, take the BB when it's there. It's a passive-aggressive approach. But he's going to have to adjust his ability to "trigger" his swing more often as he faces those better arms going forward. If he can do that, he's going to be special, even with a mix of K's and BB.
RAYA has been a focus of mine since the day he was drafted. He was my favorite selection in the weird 2020 draft. SOMETHING about attitude, stuff, level of competition, mindset, etc, told me we got a steal! For various reasons, his career got off to a slow start. His development this past season has me confused and enthralled at the same time. With missed time to a delay in his debut, and how young he is, why in hell is he at AA already, throwing 3-4 innings at a time? And then you see box scores and look at video of his stuff and your jaw almost drops. It's somewhat reminiscent of how the Twins nurtured Ober in his rookie season. They believe in him so much, and his stuff, that they are challenging him. At the same time, they are building his arm and experience slowly. I would be more than happy, at his age, if he spent the entire year at AA to just build up his arm, gain experience, deal with a couple bumps in the road, and hopefully be ready for AAA in 2025.
FESTA is one of my favorite prospects. And maybe I'm misguided in my hopes. He's long...which leads to some deception and added velocity...and has some good stuff, gets knocked around here and there, and just keeps getting better as he adjusts. I just never have believed in hyping pitching prospects as #1 or ACE arms unless you are lucky enough to draft a Clemmons or Strasburg type of arm. I've seen way too many hyped arms never turn out, and too many mid round arms turn out to be All Stars to buy in to the hype. And while Festa could stand to add some muscle/bulk, and like any young pitcher he needs to continue to harness his stuff, he just keeps getting better. Really hoping he doesn't appear at all in 2024 because the rotation is so healthy, OR, he doesn't have to appear until later in the season to just give him a little more development time. He's almost a "no trade" prospect for me.
SOTO is exciting! He impressed the hell out of me in his draft day interviews. The kid actually attended the draft the previous year just to get a feel for what the future might hold for him. He's so very young, but mature, intelligent, grounded in family, faith, and community. A class kid. And he's already got a perfect frame at 18yo and throws high 90's. And I fully understand he's got a LONG WAY to go before he might reach MLB. But could you ask for a better HS draft choice to mold and work with? He doesn't have injuries, he's still 5yrs away unless he just rocks his development. So 2028 sounds right, with a possible debut late in '27.
WINOKER is a freak athlete. How can you be that large of a human being and still be athletic enough to play SS? Of course, he's not going to stay there. Don't take this the wrong way, but he reminds me a bit of Gallo, BUT also reminds me some of Judge. He's going to eventually end up at one of the 4 corner spots, though I'm doubting 3B. He's got speed and power and the kind of athleticism you don't normally see in a HS kid, which is why the Twins spent over slot for him. Even IF he ends up at 1B at some point...only because there might be even better corner OF on the roster because this kid can actually run well...he could be special in the way Jenkins is. What?! How can I say that and compare the two? Because athletically they are very similar. But Winoker has more bust than Jenkins, even with a lot of boom potential. IMO, it's ALL ABOUT bat to ball. If Winoker can take all of his potential and just put the bat on the ball constantly, with his power, allowing for K's, he could be a very good ballplayer. IMO, it's ALL about bat to ball.
KEASCHALL and SCHOBEL, IMO, are the same player. Both drafted in similar rounds, and similar profiles. I've heard reports/ideas that Keaschall might have more speed, and MIGHT be a CF option in the future. Regardless, both are "ballplayers" who would seem to have the ability to hit, get OB, provide some power and speed, and play almost anywhere. And depending on how good they actually DO hit and produce, either could be a quality ML starter, or quality utility player. I think both of these guys could be the next Spencer Steer. And I think that's what the Twins see in them. I think a 2025 ML appearance is probably about right. But is that as a utility or fill in? Or is it a "too good" to not give a full time job and allow the trade of someone else? It's a couple of years away, but it's sure nice to see the depth.
IMO, what's missing here is the development of Rosario? 
How great is it that we're actually trying to figure out what to do with all of this talent over the next couple of seasons. 
If we want to worry about pitching beyond Raya and Festa, just wait until 2024 is done and we are looking at what the 2022 draft has provided.

Great post, insights and observations.  I think Cody's ETA's are pretty accurate.  I agree with chpettit19 that the Wild card is Jenkins.  To have him up at age 21 would be pretty impressive.  But he could actually get here sooner and if he does, we have a HECK of a prospect.  The comparison with Jackson Holiday was illuminating.
One other player not mentioned was Noah Miller, he of minor league Gold Glove ability at SS.  It's one thing to win a Gold Glove in the minor leagues.  It shows EXCEPTIONAL defensive ability and future potential.  Defense always plays with just "enough" offense.  To win it at SS makes him a cream of the crop piece going forward.  We all know Correa's time at SS is limited.  He won't stick there through the life of his contract.  Miller's Gold Glove should boost his value.  Assuming Julien learns how to play some 1B, and Lee can handle SS, 2B and 3B.  Miller is a potential Gold Glove major league SS.  Where does that leave Lewis?  Lewis is the cornerstone.  He's hitting #3 or #4 in our lineup for the next 10 years.  Kirilloff could always play LF or 1B if Julien ends up being a 1B/DH type (and he probably will).  Where does Royce Lewis play if Emm-Rod or Jenkins is in CF for 3-4 years?  
There are certain players we will see the Twins move on from either this off season, at the trade deadline, or before the start of next season.  Larnach, Kepler, Polanco, Farmer, Vasquez, all fall in this category.  Gray and Maeda are already out the door and ain't coming back.  
The number of BATS we have in this 3-year pipeline is impressive.  However, we're pretty short on pitchers and none of our pitching prospects are at the level of a Lewis, Julien, Wallner, Lee, Jenkins or Emm-Rod.  That leads me to believe that SOME of these elite bats might be/could be, moved in an effort to add quality starting pitching in trades.  Also consider that this equation would be different if we had drafted Skenes instead of Jenkins (but Skenes went before we had the chance).  
This is a great position to be in.  It's always better to have more talent than less.  It gives you more options.  But I wonder what moves the front office will make this winter in FA and trades.  They have a LOT of different directions they could go.  Let's hope they make the right ones.  

Yeah, I don't expect AA, but I'm hoping for it. The difference, for me, between Jenkins and Keaschall/Schobel types are that Keaschall and Schobel aren't expected to be heart of the order stars. They absolutely could become those guys, but I think their most likely ceilings are Spencer Steer types who have to bounce around the diamond to find playing time (for the record that's no shot at Steer as I'd very much take him back on the Twins) while trying not to be pushed out by the Jenkins types. Which then makes them likely trade candidates, as you said. Or they become the excellent "bench" options you want when you play as many guys as regularly as the Twins do. 
The Twins seemed to have found the ability to produce at least average major league talented bats. Not what we were expecting when they hired Falvey as it was the "pitching pipeline" that was supposed to be built, but if they can keep producing bats they can find the arms through non-developmental means if needed. If they can turn Soto, Raya, Festa, Prielipp, whoever into a frontline arm or 2 then they'll really be onto something. Exciting times ahead! (Hopefully)

That's fair. Jenkins is a major talent and so far has met every challenge with seeming ease. But a high school draft pick debuting at 21 is still pretty fantastic. That's the Joe Mauer path, and Jenkins is already a little ahead of that (Joe spent his first season in rookie ball, Jenkins has low-A games under his belt). He's been so good so far that it's easy to see him rocketing up tp AA in 2024, but it would still be a huge success if he finishes the year in Cedar Rapids.
Keaschall and Schobel have the same problem in front of them to get up to MLB by 2025/26: lot of guys in front of them. Hard not to see Julien, Lee, and Lewis owning 2B/3B for a while and I could see either of them being used as trade bait at some point. So while I think the timeline might be realistic, I also think there's a real chance it'll be with someone else for one of them.
Lot to feel good about in the top 10 prospect list: you have high-end talent, guys that have emerged through development, and relatively few with low ceilings. It's going to be exciting if the really young guys advance fairly quickly; always better to be adding guys to the 40-man when they're in AA/AAA rather than having to sort out whether they need to be protected while still in A-ball.
Soto is the wildest wild card of the bunch: he's got oodles of talent, but he's also a high school pitcher and we literally haven't seen him throw a professional inning yet.

I agree about Camargo.  I actually think with payroll being cut, there is a chance that Vazquez gets traded as it is a luxury to carry two starting catchers.

I agree with the estimated timelines, but that is always based on general linier progression of the player.  Some players will not progress, and some will progress faster than expected.  Also injuries always play a roll.  For example, if Jenkins tears up both levels of A ball this year, and some injuries set in on OF in 2025, he could get an early call if he is tearing up AA.  Not saying likely, but possible.  I would say if he tears of up all levels he will be possible at starting 2026 out of camp. 

I would expect Camargo in 2024. He's on the roster and catchers get injured. I also expect to see Severino next season.

Let’s review position players by year.
2024 (2): Martin, Lee (but let’s no forget Larnach, Miranda, Wallner, Julien,  plus Lewis and Kiriloff) 
2025 (5): Rodriguez, Schobel, Rosario, Severino, Camargo
2026 (4): Jenkins, Keaschall, Miller, Andrade
That’s 11 debuting position players (plus 6 already debuted youngsters) over the next 3 seasons who could carve out a starting or supporting role on the roster. I’m sure I’m missing a few as well.
Some subset of these players will be the core of the Twins over the second half of this decade.  It certainly appears to be a solid foundation.
The question is: are there any true superstar players among them? You know, real difference makers who can carry a team if need be and who are likely to make several All Star teams.  Our best bets (in order) are probably: Jenkins, Lewis, Rodriguez, Lee, and Julien.

I know the 2026 timeline is probably the most realistic for Jenkins, and debuting at 21 is very nice, but it feels like a disappointing timeline at the same time. If his debut was any real sign of his talent, and not just a flash in the pan of beginner's luck, I think it's pretty darn realistic to think he could end 2024 in AA. And if he does that the 2nd half of 2025 would be a pretty reasonable debut timeline. And if he's the superstar we all hope he is, that's the timeline I think we should be hoping for, even though we shouldn't necessarily be expecting it.
Jackson Holliday just went from Low-A to AAA in his first full season. I'm not even expecting that from Jenkins, but being 1 step below that at AA feels doable after his debut this year. For comparison: Jenkins in 26 games between rookie ball and A ball .362/.417/.571 (.989) at age 18. Jackson Holliday in 20 games between rookie ball and A ball .297/.489/.422 (.911) at age 18. So I'm not being too crazy here. I just think only advancing from A to A+ would be a slightly disappointing result for 2024.

Agreed with most timelines. Just came here to say that the list is exciting to me, and I'd also be willing to bet that Jenkins pushes closer to end of year 2025 instead of mid year 2026. 

I can see a time this season where Martin is in CF, and Miranda in a platoon role with AK. at 1B. Depending on what happens in trades, I can imagine a scenario where AK gets moved to LF with Julian and Miranda splitting 1B. I think Kiersey gets picked in rule 5 draft. IMO Castro is the utility guy if he doesn't get traded. Not sure what will happen with Gordon, but at this point I don't envision him on the major league roster. Trades will happen, which will probably change a lot. They should trade for a solid 2-3 tier starter, and a big decision looms over Varland. Is he a 2-3 tier starter or is he a shutdown type of reliever. I honestly think the Twins will be very heavy favorites to win the central even if they stand pat. How far they go in post season will be determined by what they can get in trades IMO. 

Agree with the room on Julien's value. Agree otherwise with the list, and with the premise that if you want a clear star, you are not getting them by packaging the sweepings of our 40-man (Larnach, Winder, Sands, Moran) or players with a lot of recent injury history (Kirilloff, Miranda), or even players with ups/downs and/or injury (Kepler, Polanco), though some of these might work for lesser deals. It is why I'd keep Polo and Max (and move Jorge toward 1B more than Julien).
As to the Caretaker thing, exposing enough of that content to tease prospective buyers and give a sense of what is available behind the paywall is a great way to make sales. To answer one suggestion, there IS actually a Caretaker site within TD. For those who want a low cost option, Silver Caretaker is less than $4.25 a month for year-round professional content about our favorite team, and right now there is a 25% off sale going on. This site is what it is (a place I visit all year, and live on at times of the year), because there are professionals working here in tandem with great fans. That takes money, and unsupported sites are the ones that one day just aren't there. (FYI, I don't work for TD or really know anyone that does. Just love the site.)

I was kinda wondering the same thing.  I'm a caretaker so it appears different to me.  Now I'm discussing an article with someone who hasn't read the article?  No offense to non-caretakers but we get plenty of talking past each other because we aren't reading each others posts but now we are discussing stuff people can't read if if they were inclined.  Odd. 
I'm a caretaker because the ad load is insane if not.  I'd be a fan of a caretaker only forum but now that I know most of this discussion is with people who haven't read it there isn't much reason to interact with it.

To me, looking at the list, the one that is easiest to cover for (if traded) is Wallner. This will be an interesting offseason, and I'd be willing to think an over/under of guys traded on this list specifically could be over 1.5.

Lee is an interesting option and I'm intrigued to see what his contract ends up being. I'd be really happy with the Twins going after him. The Athletic has him pegged at 4 years, 56 million. Likely too expensive without other payroll cuts being made, and at that point you're just maintaining the talent level instead of improving it. I love Brantley, but again, guessing he's priced out of their range now. If they aren't getting to 140 mil in payroll I don't think any worthwhile FA is an option this year.

I like Lee because he fills a needed position (CF) and he brings an approach to the plate we need to integrate more into our lineup, that being elite contact and on base skills with a little power.  It was mentioned he might require a 4-year $14 per year ($56 million) commitment.  If I could deal Polanco $10.5 million and Theilbar $3.0 million I'd have our CF.  he's just 25 years old.  He can grow with the youthful core we already have. 
Some of the pitchers intrigue me as well.  With a reduction in payroll coming, if a couple pitchers could be signed for lower than current MLB pitchers on the market I'd have to give them heavy consideration as well. 
GREAT ARTICLE !!