IndyTwinsFan

I see what you mean. I thought you were talking about those that struggled or didn't live up to expectations in NY. My bad. Makes sense when you put it that way.

as goals these are all reasonable. remember, he's not saying "this is what these guys will do" or even "this is was I expect from each player".
This is "what's an attainable goal for each player" and none of them are outrageous. Some do require seeing things we haven't gotten recently (if ever), But if Buxton plays 120 games, there's little reason to think he can't have an OPS of .800 and hit 30 dingers. Miranda showed he could hit at that level; throw out that horrific start in May and he's right there last season. That's a good goal to aim for. I think it's important to look at each of these individually, not as a set, because each player's goal is independent of each other. Alex Kirilloff being healthy and hitting without pain has nothing to do with Byron Buxton's knee not barking at him.

Love it! 
Funny......goal for Gallo:  "maintain a 200 average"
Funny......but......OUCH!

A good and appreciated exercise. And I couldn't care about pre-season rankings from anyone, though they do provide opportunity for discussion. TIRED and EXHAUSTED commentary, but health remains an issue.
Gray remains a high quality pitcher. He's never been a stalwart, but his injuries last year were primarily hamstring issues. Does a normal offseason and ST allow him to start 28-32 games? If so, he's about as good as you can get without a bona-fide #1 ACE.
IF all medical reports about Mahle are correct, and he really just had a tired arm after the weird offseason and abbreviated ST and trying to throw too much are accurate, he just might be the Twins #1 and worthy of an extension. He's talented enough, young enough, and removed from Cincinnati's park he could be that guy.
I don't know what to expect from Maeda. But he's never been about velocity. He's always been about control and deception. Not sure how many remember how great he looked in ST 2021 while adding a 6th pitch to his repertoire. Reports were that his control at the end of 2022 was surprisingly good. The Twins decided to not pitch him in a lost cause so late in the season, but to get him ready for 2023. His IP may be regulated. But I sure wouldn't bet against him being a solid rotation piece.
Why does everyone want Ryan to be an ACE/#1 starter? He was a rookie in 2022. He had a great debut and a good rookie season in 2022, with a natural learning curve, and a covid issue that interrupted his season. He will probably learn, grow, and be even better. But insisting he might be a #1 is wishful thinking. It COULD happen, as #1's HAPPEN here and there, but it takes time. I'm fine with him as a really good SP and waiting to see what happens. 
Lopez has tremendous numbers overall, but never started more than 21 games until last year. And then he faded some the last half of the year. But the STUFF says at least solid, if not better. 
The Twins didn't trade for the under 30yo Mahle and Lopez, both with potential, to ONLY have them for 2yrs. Either, or both, will be extension candidates. 
A healthy Ober might be as good or better than anyone in the current rotation. Past injuries and an option is the only reason he might be on the outside looking in. Despite limited IP in 2021 for obvious reasons, he was not only good, but got better. His limited 2022 was impressive. Don't sleep on him for even a minute.
Bullpen, Jax should only get better with experience.  Ditto for Duran, though I'm not sure else what he can do but be human some days. Lopez is not going to be as outstanding as he was before the trade, but is not as average as he was post trade. He's going to be fine. Alcala is a bit of a mystery. He finished 2021 in outstanding fashion. IIRC he tightened a few things up but also worked hard on his 3rd offering. He started 2022 well before injury. If he's 100%, he could be a difference maker.
But there are a number of rotation and BP arms at the ready. Not sure I've seen this much depth in a long time. I'm not sure all of the projections in the OP will turn out, though they aren't illogical or beyond possibilities. But it sure is nice to see these possibilities and the depth available. 

A good exercise.
I think you're maybe a little high on the innings. In his five full seasons (i.e., not 2020), he's averaged 139 innings. Coming off TJS, I'll suggest 125 as a target. Maybe skip his spot in the rotation a time or two, and because of the surgery, he may have the shortest starts on average, so 25 starts x 5 innings feels about right. 
ERA is maybe a bit high. His career is 3.70 and his highest is 4.10. TJS guys often have days when they are not sharp, but it makes sense to try letting them pitch through some things. I think there will be many days when he's on his career average of 3.70, but throw in a few of the clunkers and it's maybe pushing 4.00. 
I'll take 125 innings of 4.00 or a little better from the No. 5 guy. 

Maeda is a weird one for me. Obviously I would prioritize his health before any preformence. If he can stay healthy, he'll be a decent 4-5 guy at the least. I am not, however, expecting him to return to his 2020 form, although it wouldn't completely shock me. We have seen people like Justin Verlander come back even stronger from Tommy John, so I wouldn't rule him out to be a top of the rotation guy. 
So, expectations? 
1. Stay healthy. Pitch 150 innings 
2. Have an ERA under 4.20
I think that's all you can hope for from a player returning from that devestating injury. 
Thanks for your feedback!

I would add Jorge Lopez to the list.  Since Rocco will not make Duran the teams "closer,"  instead choosing to use him in high leverage situations as needed, that means Jorge Lopez will be getting plenty of closing opportunities.  If he's "Jorge, the Baltimore Oriole" pitcher from the first half of last season he will have a much larger impact than Ober or Alcala (who are still good pitchers to list).  If he's "Jorge the second half of the season Twins pitcher"  we will have issues once again at the end of games.  He's a key member of our bullpen and MUST have a good season to provide stability and certainty in the back end.  

I think Sonny Gray is pretty proven. If I had to make goals for him, it would be to have an ERA under 3.60 and to stay healthy.

Observations like this are a prime reason to visit TD regularly.

Slacker!

A great article! Very detailed and in depth! Couldn't agree more. I'm a believer in Jeffer's potential and don't think we've seen the best of him yet. I think a lot of people sell him short on his defense and handling of the staff, and don't realize he's as young as he is, and still only has a little over 500 ML AB.
Boy, if AK could just get healthy and stay that way, what a difference he could make!
I would have made your post "6" instead of 4.
Larnach could also be a major difference maker. He's solid enough in the OF, should get better in time, and has a tremendous arm. We've seen flashes of what his bat might bring.
And I think a lot of people forget about and undersell on Ober. While his IP were regulated in 2021, with just cause, he looked really good and finished strong. He was good to great in 2022 when healthy. Will he always have injury concerns? Or did all the changes and improvements he made in 2021 just get temporarily messed up due to non monitored offseason workouts and a short ST? I believe he's a solid mid rotation starter if he can just take the mound a good 26-28 turns.

When I was a kid, baseball was king.  No soccer, no video games, no other activities that competed with baseball.  With teams full of players, you had to be the best at fundamentals to get more paying time.  You also had parents who would lend their time to coaching.  Now the parents hardly even drop their kids off at the practice field.  How many times after dinner did I throw a rubber ball against the side of the garage practicing fielding.  I can't remember how many MLB players I struck out, pitching against a brick wall.
The bottom line, playing and honing your basic baseball skills was a common thing.  My older brother schooled me in the strategy of baseball.  He explained the cut off throw, the taking of an extra base, etc.
So I firmly agree with the above comment.  The basics are no longer ingrained.  Kids spend the majority of their time in the batting cage.  Baseball is such a more complicated game than swinging for the fences.

Great topic S.B. and one I consider the "opening salvo" of how the Twins can look to improve in 2023.  INJURIES.  That more than anything else killed the Twins in 2022.  We were basically a AAA team from August 1st.  Goodness, an outfield of Cave, Contreras and whoever can't win you anything in the major leagues.  More than anything else, the Twins need health in 2023.  The problem is, we've been saying that for several years now.  Something has to change in their off-season training/preparation and in season as well.
I'm looking forward to our many discussions of the 40-man roster and how the brain trust should manage it. We still have areas of strength (talented LH hitting OF'ers, 2B) and gaping holes (SS ??  Certainly Catcher, SP's that can go 6+).  One of the first things I'd do is get on the phone to Toronto. They've got THREE good catchers.  Top prospect Moreno, Kirk and Jansen.  What would it take to pry one of them away ?  With a projected starting rotation of Mahle, Gray, Ryan, Maeda and Ober, and with Winder, SWR and Varland waiting in the wings there is depth in the rotation, but what if another quality SP like Pablo Lopez was acquired ?  Everyone drops a peg and you've got a 6-7 inning pitcher leading your staff.  Winder, Ober and others are the 2+ inning BP options.  Duran and Lopez make a fine back end.  Theilbar and Jax will be back.  It has the makings of a solid pitching staff.
Which leaves us with SS.  I've been the guy holding out hope for Correa.  I still don't want to give up on that.  A Gold Glove SS with 20-25 HR power and a .280-.300 batting average is pretty hard to come by.  I'd give him 4-years $160 million.  I'd still have Lewis and Brooks Lee waiting in the wings, but the Twins are just so much better with Correa on the team.
I like what I saw from Wallner.  I'm sure other teams noted him as well.  With Kirilloff, Larnach, Wallner and Kepler somebody needs to be traded.  I'd move one of them in a package for a Pablo Lopez type or a Toronto catcher.  I'd also look at moving Polanco to solidify catcher and a #1 SP.  Arraez and Gordon, maybe Lewis as well can cover 2B.  I play Kirilloff and Miranda at 1B.  I retain Urshela.  The Twins have assets other teams would be interested in.  It shouldn't be as hard as we've made it to find a solid RH hitting 4th OF'er.  Finally, if Correa isn't back a Jose Iglesias type is still needed to bridge the gap from Lewis being READY to step in full time.
That's my plan (kind of) and I'm sticking to it. (until a better idea comes along).   

Agreed Stringerbell! Great post.
I think one of the challenges that will carry over from ‘22, is there’s a ton of quality players, but many have been injured (some frequently) and the efforts made to keep them on the field might not do enough.
how do the Twins keep enough depth to avoid another death spiral?

Stringer, first off, just an excellent post and I think you hit just about everything on the nail head. Honest truth, robbed a little thunder of what I'm wanting to post myself in a blog. 
I really appreciated one of your initial comments about trying to figure out how the Twins can possibly fit all their position players on the roster at one point. I'm in the same boat both then, and looking at next year. Despite the naysayers, I'm very excited about the POTENTIAL of the lineup in 2023. Other than SS, there isn't a major hole anywhere on the roster with a return to health. Amazing that a team can hit, get OB, and be amongst the best in all MLB getting a runner in from 3B but be amongst the worst at getting runners advanced or IN from 2B. There is a disconnect somewhere that is hard to quantify.
I think, in retrospect, the early SP was a bit of an illusion. Bundy has actually been about what most teams would love to have in a 5th starter. The problem was, that role fell to Archer, who never took a step forward. And while Gray was very good, and Ryan had a wonderful rookie season, they were doomed by not adding someone from a tremendous FA class. My goodness, how much better would the rotation have been if they had signed Cueto, as rumored. 
Ignoring the pen was ridiculous. Even with a healthy Alcala, the pen needed an arm, and NOT Pagan. 
The lack of middle relief was a maddening downfall!
And despite a team not exactly put together anything close to perfect, I just don't understand anyone not looking at injuries to just about everyone and anyone as not being a devastating blow to a contending team.
And I don't think I even have to discuss injuries to the staff. (Ober was vastly missed and nobody talks about that).  But how much better is the lineup with potential hitters like AK and Larnach and a healthy Kepler and Polanco beyond July? Instead, August and September,  as you stated, the lineup was filled with a pair of Hamiltons and Cave and Contreras. And let's not forget having Beckham as an "emergency" player off the bench. Sheesh! How do you score runs at that point!
Agreed there will be some roster turnover. It has to happen. Jeffers needs someone. A quality RH OF is needed. Fulmer needs to be re-signed or replaced adequately.  And if Correa is not re-signed, not only do we need to figure out a temp situation, but we have to decide if there is a SP available to add to hedge bets vs just filling in with a young arm and hoping for the best.
Agreed there is just too much talent on hand to tear things down. My goodness, with health and just a handful of smart additions,  this team could be primed to win the ALC and make noise in the playoffs. But the FO HAS to make those few smart additions to add to the roster as well as hedging bets against injury.
I'm an optimist about 2023 if the FO is smart and  fills a couple holes and "over does" the roster a bit.
 

Just want to say I'd give this post a double LIKE if I could!

I think people just overvalue a lot of Twins players.
Guys like Kepler and Polanco aren’t going back to 2019.
Nick Gordon and Trevor Larnach just aren’t that good.
Buxton will never play a full season.
Kirillof’s career may be derailed at this point.
Royce Lewis may never stay healthy. If he does, we don’t know he’s a good major leaguer yet based on a small sample.
The list goes on.  
 

I agree that its time to make a change with Archer. Pen looks like a good place for him to finish the year. Maybe a piggyback for Bundy?

I fully concur with your assessment. 

I had the team pegged before the season as a little below .500 (about on a par with last year until they acquired Correa), and that's approximately the pace they've been on for a while now.  They over-performed for a while but at this point they'll do well to finish above .500.  Still hoping for the best, and a playoff appearance would be great.

I am not optimistic. Our Twins played above their heads early & have rounded into form as a middling .500 ballclub. 
Seeing lineups with the bottom third being Cave/Leon/Beckham does not inspire confidence, especially with Miranda / Kiriloff / Sano & a cast of dozens on the IL. Buxton's injury hasn't helped. The offense is no longer the impressive strength it appeared to be in spring training. 
I hope I'm wrong, but their play the past couple of months is that of a mediocre baseball team. I don't see them breaking out of that mold with this set of personnel. 

If they keep hitting as they are now, .500 is a gift from God.

I think the head to head with Cleveland and Chicago decides the division. Twins have 17 games left with those two. If they can beat them, they will win the division. If not, they finish 3rd and out of the playoffs.
While Twins have been woefully inconsistent, thankfully so have the Guards and Sox. No one really wants to step up and take charge. but I think that will be changing. I'm not real confident the Twins have the horses to compete, but we'll see.

You forgot a few big names like Rodriguez and Jullien and they just traded Steer, CES and two good left handed pitchers which would have changed this list considerably.  To your point I don't think they have built a top 10 Farm since they have been here mainly because top picks like Rooker, Sabato and Cavaco didn't work out well and they missed on the international FA like Javier and others. 
I think the larger point to make is that they haven't really produced much for starting pitchers which is what they were brought in to do.  Cleveland has continued to be far more successful than Falvine on the pitching side but then again they have taken risks taking pitchers early and late in several drafts.  While the Twins drafts have been balanced they just haven't found enough viable arms.  Things looked like maybe they were going to turn this year and with Ryan, Ober Winder set to play key roles things were looking better for the FO but Ober doesn't look like he will ever make it a full season as a starter and given Winders shoulder it doesn't look good for him either.  Everyone else has pretty much imploded on the farm.  Things could change next year for Balazovich, Henriquez, Canterino, Sands, Enlow but it doesn't look good at this point.  Losing Povich and Hajjar leaves the only potential fast mover as Prielipp from this years draft and we don't really know how durable he will end up being either.
This team is going to be in a tough spot if they can't draft and develop more guys like Joe Ryan.  Constantly trading away your farm for 1.5 years of a pitcher is not a great strategy moving forward.  Not sure how they are going to get out of this mess but hopefully this years draft is a really good one and they need to replenish the pitching pipeline next year or there won't be much of one.
I still like this FO for the most part but if they want to keep their jobs long term I think they are going to have to do better than they have been.

While I'm well aware that a strong minor league system correlates with a strong major league team, I could care less how the minors "rank" if the major league team is winning.
Prospect ratings are pure speculation. The results that matter at the the MLB level. 
But I also don't totally disagree with you. Of course I want the Twins to continually improve overall, majors and minors. But I don't think a side-by-side 2015-to-2022 list is a valid way to measure anything.
What about the age of the roster in 2022 compared to 2016? What about long-term commitments and budget flexibility? What about the fact that there is a global pandemic that halted a year of development for most prospects? There are million variables that aren't addressed in this comparison.