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South Dakota Tom

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  1. Like
    South Dakota Tom got a reaction from TopGunn#22 in What Happens to the Twins Emerging Star?   
    The "dump so-and-so" trade philosophies are the opposite of my thinking.  Sano?  You'd be selling low.  Kepler? Same.  The sell-high candidates right now are Buxton, Polanco, Miranda and possibly Donaldson (esp if there is an NL DH), and since I want my team to be actually good, I think the only one of those that I would actively shop would be JD.  Yes, we would eat some salary, but it would open up 3b for Miranda, extra Arraez at-bats, and if Sano does actually shed 30 pounds, he can play there as well on occasion.
    I agree with the one-year SS free-agent thinking (though my dream SS is Trea Turner if LA keeps Seager).  I don't think we're out-bidding for the top SS anyway, so the Galvis/Iglesias/Simmons combo would pave the way for a mid-season Lewis/Martin promotion (wishful thinking).  Celestino is my opening day LF, and an outfield of Celestino, Buxton, Kepler is very strong defensively.
    Kiriloff/Polanco/Iglesias/Miranda (Arraez/Gordon); Celestino/Buxton/Kepler (Larnach or Rooker); Garver/Jeffers.  Sano is DH. All 3 outfielders can play center, as well as Gordon; Polanco is backup at SS, with Gordon in emergencies. Arraez can get ABs as 2b/3b (no more outfield) and some DH, Kiriloff can play LF, Miranda can have a few days at 2b with Arraez or Sano at 3b and Polanco DH or day off.  DH is Kiriloff or Sano (whichever isn't playing 1b that day) with Larnach, Arraez, Garver.  Gordon is our pinch-runner late in games.
    $ (no more Donaldson, no 3rd arb year for Berrios, no Colome) is all spent on Buxton and pitching (and I've advocated for Pineda and Rodon, filling every bullpen slot with existing players, extra starters, or low-cost fliers). Plan B is keep JD, and substitute Miranda for Celestino in the above scenarios.
  2. Like
    South Dakota Tom got a reaction from jun in Who is your top position player FA target?   
    I'm in the Galvis, Iglesias, Simmons camp for a one-year SS deal - someone who will play the position every day but who we wouldn't freak out if he was displaced at some/any point of the season.  I do not trade any of the players who had "down"  or injured seasons (Kepler, Garver, Sano).  Larnach stays in AAA, OF is an extended Buxton, Kepler, Celestino, and Martin.  IF is Kiriloff, Polanco, SS, Donaldson - Arraez, Gordon.  Sano is everyday DH, plus 1b and emergency 3b. 
    That makes the bench Jeffers, Arraez, Gordon, Martin, but all guys who will get rotation time and ABs.  Still trying to figure out how we get Miranda into the lineup, but I think that happens (either this off-season or mid-season next year) when we eat money and deal Donaldson.  I think your quality LF is Celestino/Martin, creating a strong defensive outfield with no plodding sluggers.
    Dollars are spent on Pineda (1yr/$9M), Rodon (5 yrs/$125M, and yes I realize that is a huge leap of faith, but he's young and built for the long haul), to couple with Ober/Ryan and I think Winder or Balazovic or Duran fills the 5 slot, Sands/Vallimont/Woods Richardson/Strotman; some combination of Jax, Barnes, Dobnak, Smeltzer, Thorpe, Burroughs, Gant are still around (some not) for depth.  Maybe Maeda late in the year.
    2 high-level relievers.  Yup, once Miranda and Lewis (hope, hope, hope) man the left side of the infield, this is a shockingly young and athletic team built much more for 2023-2024; Kiriloff, Polanco, Lewis, Miranda, Celestino, Buxton, Kepler, Garver, Sano - Jeffers, Martin, Arraez, Gordon (though all 4 OFs can play center so maybe the 4th bench spot goes to that plodding slugger).  Rodon, Ober, Pineda, Ryan, Winder.  I think Buxton extension, Rodon, Pineda, 2 relievers plus SS spends all the money.
  3. Like
    South Dakota Tom got a reaction from LA VIkes Fan in Who is your top position player FA target?   
    I'm in the Galvis, Iglesias, Simmons camp for a one-year SS deal - someone who will play the position every day but who we wouldn't freak out if he was displaced at some/any point of the season.  I do not trade any of the players who had "down"  or injured seasons (Kepler, Garver, Sano).  Larnach stays in AAA, OF is an extended Buxton, Kepler, Celestino, and Martin.  IF is Kiriloff, Polanco, SS, Donaldson - Arraez, Gordon.  Sano is everyday DH, plus 1b and emergency 3b. 
    That makes the bench Jeffers, Arraez, Gordon, Martin, but all guys who will get rotation time and ABs.  Still trying to figure out how we get Miranda into the lineup, but I think that happens (either this off-season or mid-season next year) when we eat money and deal Donaldson.  I think your quality LF is Celestino/Martin, creating a strong defensive outfield with no plodding sluggers.
    Dollars are spent on Pineda (1yr/$9M), Rodon (5 yrs/$125M, and yes I realize that is a huge leap of faith, but he's young and built for the long haul), to couple with Ober/Ryan and I think Winder or Balazovic or Duran fills the 5 slot, Sands/Vallimont/Woods Richardson/Strotman; some combination of Jax, Barnes, Dobnak, Smeltzer, Thorpe, Burroughs, Gant are still around (some not) for depth.  Maybe Maeda late in the year.
    2 high-level relievers.  Yup, once Miranda and Lewis (hope, hope, hope) man the left side of the infield, this is a shockingly young and athletic team built much more for 2023-2024; Kiriloff, Polanco, Lewis, Miranda, Celestino, Buxton, Kepler, Garver, Sano - Jeffers, Martin, Arraez, Gordon (though all 4 OFs can play center so maybe the 4th bench spot goes to that plodding slugger).  Rodon, Ober, Pineda, Ryan, Winder.  I think Buxton extension, Rodon, Pineda, 2 relievers plus SS spends all the money.
  4. Like
    South Dakota Tom got a reaction from DocBauer in Who is your top position player FA target?   
    I'm in the Galvis, Iglesias, Simmons camp for a one-year SS deal - someone who will play the position every day but who we wouldn't freak out if he was displaced at some/any point of the season.  I do not trade any of the players who had "down"  or injured seasons (Kepler, Garver, Sano).  Larnach stays in AAA, OF is an extended Buxton, Kepler, Celestino, and Martin.  IF is Kiriloff, Polanco, SS, Donaldson - Arraez, Gordon.  Sano is everyday DH, plus 1b and emergency 3b. 
    That makes the bench Jeffers, Arraez, Gordon, Martin, but all guys who will get rotation time and ABs.  Still trying to figure out how we get Miranda into the lineup, but I think that happens (either this off-season or mid-season next year) when we eat money and deal Donaldson.  I think your quality LF is Celestino/Martin, creating a strong defensive outfield with no plodding sluggers.
    Dollars are spent on Pineda (1yr/$9M), Rodon (5 yrs/$125M, and yes I realize that is a huge leap of faith, but he's young and built for the long haul), to couple with Ober/Ryan and I think Winder or Balazovic or Duran fills the 5 slot, Sands/Vallimont/Woods Richardson/Strotman; some combination of Jax, Barnes, Dobnak, Smeltzer, Thorpe, Burroughs, Gant are still around (some not) for depth.  Maybe Maeda late in the year.
    2 high-level relievers.  Yup, once Miranda and Lewis (hope, hope, hope) man the left side of the infield, this is a shockingly young and athletic team built much more for 2023-2024; Kiriloff, Polanco, Lewis, Miranda, Celestino, Buxton, Kepler, Garver, Sano - Jeffers, Martin, Arraez, Gordon (though all 4 OFs can play center so maybe the 4th bench spot goes to that plodding slugger).  Rodon, Ober, Pineda, Ryan, Winder.  I think Buxton extension, Rodon, Pineda, 2 relievers plus SS spends all the money.
  5. Like
    South Dakota Tom got a reaction from chpettit19 in Ranking the 3 Most Underrated Twins Players   
    Hard to argue, but this is subjective, right?  When I thought of my answer, before reading the article, I said Arraez, Colome and Donaldson.  Maybe some recency bias in there with Colome, but Josh has put together a pretty fine season without much recognition and Luis will forever be underrated until he wins that batting crown.....
  6. Like
    South Dakota Tom got a reaction from Hosken Bombo Disco in Ranking the 3 Most Underrated Twins Players   
    Hard to argue, but this is subjective, right?  When I thought of my answer, before reading the article, I said Arraez, Colome and Donaldson.  Maybe some recency bias in there with Colome, but Josh has put together a pretty fine season without much recognition and Luis will forever be underrated until he wins that batting crown.....
  7. Like
    South Dakota Tom got a reaction from ToddlerHarmon in Ranking the 3 Most Underrated Twins Players   
    Hard to argue, but this is subjective, right?  When I thought of my answer, before reading the article, I said Arraez, Colome and Donaldson.  Maybe some recency bias in there with Colome, but Josh has put together a pretty fine season without much recognition and Luis will forever be underrated until he wins that batting crown.....
  8. Like
    South Dakota Tom got a reaction from Squirrel in Ranking the 3 Most Underrated Twins Players   
    Hard to argue, but this is subjective, right?  When I thought of my answer, before reading the article, I said Arraez, Colome and Donaldson.  Maybe some recency bias in there with Colome, but Josh has put together a pretty fine season without much recognition and Luis will forever be underrated until he wins that batting crown.....
  9. Like
    South Dakota Tom got a reaction from DocBauer in Ranking the 3 Most Underrated Twins Players   
    Hard to argue, but this is subjective, right?  When I thought of my answer, before reading the article, I said Arraez, Colome and Donaldson.  Maybe some recency bias in there with Colome, but Josh has put together a pretty fine season without much recognition and Luis will forever be underrated until he wins that batting crown.....
  10. Like
    South Dakota Tom got a reaction from wabene in Can the Pitching Staff Compete in 2022?   
    Already hoping for the best with Maeda but it feels like the whole timeline is shifting.  
    Good-case scenario?  Maeda, Big Mike, Carlos Rodon, Ober and Ryan.  Another $10M/yr for Pineda and 5/110 for Rodon is well within the budget.
    Bad is trotting out next year’s version of Bailey, Shoemaker, Sanchez types.  

    Better is running out a lot of rookies for 100 innings each as the result won’t be pretty but it will be fun to watch.
    Best is Maeda, Rodon, trade for a Sixto Sanchez or Zach Gallen by giving up some serious minor league talent and have Ober, Ryan, Dobnak, Duran, Balazovic, Winder et al rotate 3-5.
  11. Like
    South Dakota Tom got a reaction from Karbo in Can the Pitching Staff Compete in 2022?   
    Already hoping for the best with Maeda but it feels like the whole timeline is shifting.  
    Good-case scenario?  Maeda, Big Mike, Carlos Rodon, Ober and Ryan.  Another $10M/yr for Pineda and 5/110 for Rodon is well within the budget.
    Bad is trotting out next year’s version of Bailey, Shoemaker, Sanchez types.  

    Better is running out a lot of rookies for 100 innings each as the result won’t be pretty but it will be fun to watch.
    Best is Maeda, Rodon, trade for a Sixto Sanchez or Zach Gallen by giving up some serious minor league talent and have Ober, Ryan, Dobnak, Duran, Balazovic, Winder et al rotate 3-5.
  12. Like
    South Dakota Tom got a reaction from TopGunn#22 in Can the Pitching Staff Compete in 2022?   
    Already hoping for the best with Maeda but it feels like the whole timeline is shifting.  
    Good-case scenario?  Maeda, Big Mike, Carlos Rodon, Ober and Ryan.  Another $10M/yr for Pineda and 5/110 for Rodon is well within the budget.
    Bad is trotting out next year’s version of Bailey, Shoemaker, Sanchez types.  

    Better is running out a lot of rookies for 100 innings each as the result won’t be pretty but it will be fun to watch.
    Best is Maeda, Rodon, trade for a Sixto Sanchez or Zach Gallen by giving up some serious minor league talent and have Ober, Ryan, Dobnak, Duran, Balazovic, Winder et al rotate 3-5.
  13. Like
    South Dakota Tom got a reaction from chpettit19 in Four Players the Twins Could Trade This Winter   
    These articles are interesting, but incomplete. We could trade 100+ different players, if you include minor leaguers.
    The more interesting exercise is to assess where players fit in to a global plan for the team, and I'm talking specifically about 2022, since this season should only be used for audition purposes from here on out.
    My global plan keeps Buxton, for life or something close to it. My global plan says we need starting pitching, relief pitching, a shortstop, and the rest would be hopeful "upgrades" but more likely "bounce-backs."
    We can run around the diamond, but I like our catching depth and upside; I think Kiriloff is the first baseman of the future, so Sano comes into play (I believe he's our DH next year, since his resurgence is one of those stars you cling to and just dumping him when he's at his lowest value seems shortsighted); 2b is Polanco; 3b is JD, but in my optimistic future, it's Miranda and we use JD's salary for upgrades elsewhere. SS is Martin or Polanco with the other - or Miranda or Arraez - at 2b, but the position most ripe for a FA (Semien, Story, Baez, don't think LA is going to be outbid for Seager, or Correa from Houston) - here we also have to consider that our #1 and 2 prospects still have "SS" after their names, even if that designation has a multiple-position slash as well,
    Buxton, Kepler, Larnach, 4th OF (Celestino, Refsnyder, Garlick?).  Rooker is a backup DH, who we might have to risk losing as there isn't room for him on the active roster.
    Starting pitching/relief pitching.  Maeda, resign Big Mike, Ryan?, Balazovic?, Winder?, Ober?  I feel like the rest of them lack the stuff or are too far away yet.  The one guy I would like to add on a long-term deal is Rodon - I like guys who have always had the stuff, and are now just figuring it out.
    Relief corps - I have already gone on too long, so I'll let someone else put that together.  I think there's enough in the system, if we keep Rogers and add at least one young controllable power arm from outside the system and fill the rest with the AA/AAA arms that have been oft-mentioned for call-ups this year or starters who don't make the cut.
    Maybe "what does it look like?" seems just a happier exercise than "who do we dump?"
  14. Like
    South Dakota Tom reacted to a-wan in Four Players the Twins Could Trade This Winter   
    The return on the position players, would not fetch the front office what the players bring to the team.
  15. Like
    South Dakota Tom got a reaction from Minny505 in Is Max Kepler One of Baseball’s Most Valuable Trade Assets?   
    I would also like to know the future of the "two position players on each side of second base" question.  Max's value increases substantially if they cannot shift on him, as he's been unwilling or unable to go to the opposite field.  Really hard to assess his value without knowing what the rules are going to be for the next several years.
  16. Like
    South Dakota Tom got a reaction from IndianaTwin in Is Max Kepler One of Baseball’s Most Valuable Trade Assets?   
    I would also like to know the future of the "two position players on each side of second base" question.  Max's value increases substantially if they cannot shift on him, as he's been unwilling or unable to go to the opposite field.  Really hard to assess his value without knowing what the rules are going to be for the next several years.
  17. Like
    South Dakota Tom got a reaction from SoDakTwinsFan4 in Is Max Kepler One of Baseball’s Most Valuable Trade Assets?   
    I would also like to know the future of the "two position players on each side of second base" question.  Max's value increases substantially if they cannot shift on him, as he's been unwilling or unable to go to the opposite field.  Really hard to assess his value without knowing what the rules are going to be for the next several years.
  18. Like
    South Dakota Tom reacted to HrbieFan in Twins Rookie Duo Impresses While Other Teams' Top Prospects Struggle   
    But, bighat that posts here says that Trevor isn't any good because he has a high SO ratio after 2 months in the majors.
     
    Sidenote to the site owners. These pop up ads while you are trying to type a reply is annoying AF! Can you offer a pay option to avoid this crap? No one pays attention to these ads or clicks on them on purpose. SMH 
  19. Like
    South Dakota Tom got a reaction from IndyTwinsFan in One Trade the Twins Can Make With Each Contending AL Team   
    Perception being more important than reality, I only see deals happening for the expiring contracts - that means Cruz, Pineda and possibly Simmons, possibly Robles.  This FO has no desire to retrench, or to admit defeat of their long-term plan by giving up any of Polanco, Berrios, Buxton, Sano, Maeda, Rogers, or Kepler (many of whom would be "selling low" at this point).  As much as we (and I say "we" as diehard fans) understand that the JD contract would be beneficial to move to improve payroll flexibility. it is a hard sell to the general public.
    Strikes me the future scenarios should be focused on minor league promotions, whatever return we can get for expiring contracts, and whatever payroll flexibility arises from those same contracts for 2022 and beyond.
  20. Like
    South Dakota Tom got a reaction from USAFChief in This Twins Front Office Doesn’t Have An Inspiring Trade Deadline Track Record   
    Lots of good points above.  Whenever you trade a mlb player at the deadline because the team is out of contention, you "could" get a middling mlb or AAA ballplayer back, or a prospect with upside.  It's a gamble, but the upside prospect is probably worth the risk when they pan out, rather than a known quantity with limited ability to help the big league club.  Plus, (again as pointed out) it takes some time for these long-shot, low-level, crap-shoot prospects to realize their ultimate value - whether zero or something substantial.
    And could you please (for those of us who don't know the prospects by face or uniform number), add a parenthetical with the name of the person pictured whenever you use a photo?  Thanks.
  21. Like
    South Dakota Tom reacted to chpettit19 in This Twins Front Office Doesn’t Have An Inspiring Trade Deadline Track Record   
    Think there needs to be some pretty big qualifiers on this. Major leaguer for major leaguer trades don't happen too often anymore. So going by major league WAR stats is going to make almost any trade within the first couple years look like a bad decision for the team getting prospects. James Shields had accumulated 2.0 bWAR with Chicago in 2017 and 2018 while Fernando Tatis Jr had accumulated 0 with San Diego. That's considered one of the most lopsided trades in MLB history.
    Tom says "for now" or "there's a lot to be determined yet," but to title the article the way it's titled and use WAR as the determining factor on success of these trades is really misleading. If Duran turns into an ace, or even a #2 or 3 starter the Twins crushed that deal. That doesn't even account for Maciel and De La Trinidad. Pressley went to Houston and watched his breaking ball spin rate go through the roof while being shown on camera spraying his arm with illegal substances. Ynoa had a 5.26 ERA in rookie ball when he was dealt. Lance Lynn had been a malcontent and pretty awful at pitching during his time here and wasn't going to be brought back the next year (late signing who was cranky he didn't get a big deal). 
    Pressley, Ynoa, and Lynn are the only 3 guys on this list who the Twins could have used since they've been gone. That's 1 rookie ball pitcher they traded away in a "win now" move that fans around here beg for constantly, 1 veteran who wasn't pitching well and wasn't going to come back the next year on an under .500 team. And 1 reliever who I wish we still had, but started cheating when he went to his new team. If Alcala was performing the way his pure stuff suggests he should that trade would already be a wash. They got exactly what they were looking for with Romo and added a top 20 prospect for Lewin Diaz. They got a top 5 system and top 100 global prospect back for an Escobar rental. They certainly haven't crushed any of the trades yet, but they've also only dealt veteran rentals, low level prospects, and a reliever. What do you expect to get out of those deals beyond what they did? Title and feel of this article don't seem to match the reality of these trades in my opinion.
  22. Like
    South Dakota Tom got a reaction from roger in Week in Review: Out of Their Depth   
    The article last week indicating we needed to go 13-5, or 12-6, over the stretch through the end of June, was spot on.  The hard part is facing the future once we don't do that.  If it is clear that Berrios and Buxton are not going to sign extensions (or the team isn't willing to pay what it takes to get them to sign), time is our enemy.  Their value drops with each passing week, until the narrative becomes "but they are only signed for (half a season) (one more year)."
    Much easier to tweak a strong lineup than retool, but it is hopeless to waste your most tradable assets on the tiny possibility that 2021 (or even a bounce-back 2022 that leads to above-average second-tier baseball) is worth clinging to.
    Stinks thinking about trading Berrios and Buxton (and Cruz and Pineda and Simmons), but if it brings back, I don't know, young controllable pitching, they couldn't be any more unwatchable than they are now.....
  23. Like
    South Dakota Tom got a reaction from Dman in Week in Review: Out of Their Depth   
    The article last week indicating we needed to go 13-5, or 12-6, over the stretch through the end of June, was spot on.  The hard part is facing the future once we don't do that.  If it is clear that Berrios and Buxton are not going to sign extensions (or the team isn't willing to pay what it takes to get them to sign), time is our enemy.  Their value drops with each passing week, until the narrative becomes "but they are only signed for (half a season) (one more year)."
    Much easier to tweak a strong lineup than retool, but it is hopeless to waste your most tradable assets on the tiny possibility that 2021 (or even a bounce-back 2022 that leads to above-average second-tier baseball) is worth clinging to.
    Stinks thinking about trading Berrios and Buxton (and Cruz and Pineda and Simmons), but if it brings back, I don't know, young controllable pitching, they couldn't be any more unwatchable than they are now.....
  24. Like
    South Dakota Tom got a reaction from Heiny in The 3 Biggest Problems Facing the Twins in 2021   
    No team is going to do well with 4 guys in the lineup hitting a buck and a quarter.    It is too easy to pitch around the remaining lineup and when the Twins are successful it is because they are tough 1-9, which just hasn't happened (yet).
     
    In the glass-half-full view, though, that time will come.    There are enough players on this team, now, to perform.    When we can trot out a consistent lineup of our catching duo (but not leading off, fer criminy sakes), Sano, Polanco/Arraez, Simmons, Donaldson, Kiriloff, Buxton, Kepler and Cruz, with some reasonable combination of 2nd catcher/Arraez/Gordon or Astudillo/4th outfielder who could play all 3 spots - Cave or Broxton perhaps, but not thrown into an everyday role - it allows a more balanced lineup with potential (not always realized potential) at every spot.    Just looking at the slash lines of our (other-than-Arraez) leadoff and 5-9 hitters all season is vomit-inducing.
  25. Like
    South Dakota Tom reacted to AceWrigley in Willians Astudillo Might Be Here to Stay   
    The dude is fun to watch!
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