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Trov

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  1. Like
    Trov got a reaction from DocBauer in Andrew Heaney is the Best the Twins Can Do   
    The Twins are not alone in trying to get top end pitching talent.  Many teams have tried time and again.  Some go the route the Twins do and get lottery ticket guys that pay off for the year, others go big on FA and hit, but that is rare as well.  I am not excusing the Twins of lack of pitching talent, but it is not like every team is marching out great talents every year.  
    Honestly, the way the team manages the starters, I do not know what they would do if they had a real shut down ace anyways.  Hopefully, one day we can find out though.  However, I do wish people would stop acting like every pitcher out there we do not sign or trade for is so amazing.  Remember all year people called for us trading for Montes.  How did that work out for Yankees? He put up some of the worst numbers of his career.  People were upset we traded away Berrios and not signed him to long term deal.  How did that end up for Toronto? A negative WAR and one of worst seasons of his career.  Maybe he bounces back but he would have been one of worst in our rotation. Many other FA did not live up to expectations over the years too. 
    My point is, a lot of things need to work together to have a top pitcher, and they do not come around all the time. 
  2. Like
    Trov got a reaction from roger in How Big is the Twins Catching Problem?   
    I am more concerned about the complete lack of controlling the running game.  Maybe that is more on the pitchers, but fact is teams were running like crazy on him all year when he was catching.  Unless he can hit a ton, never throwing a runner out will pile up after awhile. 
  3. Like
    Trov got a reaction from Karbo in Why Haven't The Twins Signed Omar Narváez Yet?   
    I am not against the move, but he will not be a high target for teams.  He is coming off very bad season, where even against the righties he would be asked to hit mostly against, he hit .205/.280/.314.  Not exactly a slash line you want as a platoon.  That is only a little better than Jeffers career splits against RHP. I would think the Twins will look for other options for platoon first before settling. 
  4. Like
    Trov got a reaction from Karbo in Analyze This: Jose Abreu Is the Bat Minnesota Needs   
    For runners on 2nd overall, Joe has the edge, in similar PA, difference of 6, Joe had 170 RBI, to Puckett 143.  If you look at just runner on first, Joe was way behind, in part Puckett had many more HR. Puckett had about 50 more RBI, with 22 more HR, which being you get 2 per those types of HR, that almost makes the difference.  
    If you look at 2 outs and runner on 2nd, Joe has edge even more over Puckett. Overall as I said, they had very similar chances to drive in runs, and Puckett had the edge, in part because he took less walks in those cases.  I would have to do much more of a deep dive as to how that may have affected the inning. My main point I was making is some guys will more reliable overall to drive in runs over a career and not just up to opportunities.  
  5. Like
    Trov got a reaction from Vanimal46 in Why Haven't The Twins Signed Omar Narváez Yet?   
    I am not against the move, but he will not be a high target for teams.  He is coming off very bad season, where even against the righties he would be asked to hit mostly against, he hit .205/.280/.314.  Not exactly a slash line you want as a platoon.  That is only a little better than Jeffers career splits against RHP. I would think the Twins will look for other options for platoon first before settling. 
  6. Like
    Trov got a reaction from mikelink45 in Why Haven't The Twins Signed Omar Narváez Yet?   
    I am not against the move, but he will not be a high target for teams.  He is coming off very bad season, where even against the righties he would be asked to hit mostly against, he hit .205/.280/.314.  Not exactly a slash line you want as a platoon.  That is only a little better than Jeffers career splits against RHP. I would think the Twins will look for other options for platoon first before settling. 
  7. Like
    Trov got a reaction from Cris E in Why Haven't The Twins Signed Omar Narváez Yet?   
    I am not against the move, but he will not be a high target for teams.  He is coming off very bad season, where even against the righties he would be asked to hit mostly against, he hit .205/.280/.314.  Not exactly a slash line you want as a platoon.  That is only a little better than Jeffers career splits against RHP. I would think the Twins will look for other options for platoon first before settling. 
  8. Like
    Trov got a reaction from Brandon in Why Haven't The Twins Signed Omar Narváez Yet?   
    I am not against the move, but he will not be a high target for teams.  He is coming off very bad season, where even against the righties he would be asked to hit mostly against, he hit .205/.280/.314.  Not exactly a slash line you want as a platoon.  That is only a little better than Jeffers career splits against RHP. I would think the Twins will look for other options for platoon first before settling. 
  9. Like
    Trov got a reaction from Mike Sixel in Analyze This: Jose Abreu Is the Bat Minnesota Needs   
    For runners on 2nd overall, Joe has the edge, in similar PA, difference of 6, Joe had 170 RBI, to Puckett 143.  If you look at just runner on first, Joe was way behind, in part Puckett had many more HR. Puckett had about 50 more RBI, with 22 more HR, which being you get 2 per those types of HR, that almost makes the difference.  
    If you look at 2 outs and runner on 2nd, Joe has edge even more over Puckett. Overall as I said, they had very similar chances to drive in runs, and Puckett had the edge, in part because he took less walks in those cases.  I would have to do much more of a deep dive as to how that may have affected the inning. My main point I was making is some guys will more reliable overall to drive in runs over a career and not just up to opportunities.  
  10. Like
    Trov got a reaction from PDX Twin in Analyze This: Jose Abreu Is the Bat Minnesota Needs   
    I want to take a moment to talk about the RBI stat.  Many all in analytic people point to it and say it is dumb stat as does not reflect real value.  In a short stint I would say okay.  You know the whole drove in x runs in x games is not a huge deal, the player got hot when runners were on.  However, over the length of a career it does tell a story.  That story is they know how to drive in runs.  The only way you win a baseball game is scoring runs.
    People forget hitters get pitched different in different situations.  When we look at a full season, or career of stats, we can compare strike outs, walks, HR, slugging, OPS. and all the stats people love to point to for "real" value, and leave out how often they had chances to drive in a run.  Some guys hit about the same with RISP, or runners on base, where others do worse. I feel very few do better. 
    I want to compare two all time greats, completely different style hitters for the Twins.  Mauer and Puckett.  Both played similar amount of games, similar bWAR of 55. for Mauer, and bWar of 51 for Puckett.  Over their careers Mauer had 2107 PA with RISP.  Puckett had 2146 PA with RISP, so pretty similar amount of PA over the years.  If you want to break down to runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs, Mauer had 479 and Puckett had 530, a little bit more for Puckett in his career but not crazy amount. 
    In the runner on 3rd less than 2 outs, Joe had 311 RBI, Puckett had 383, which is to be expected a little bit with the extra 51 PA, but still extra 72 RBI.  They hit very similar slashes.  When you look at 3rd and 2 outs though, Mauer had 370 PA and Puckett had 343, but Mauer had 153 RBI and Puckett had 162, which means Puckett more often drove in the run percentage wise with 2 outs than Joe did.  It does not break down how often runners were on other bases in those situations so that could affect it. Puckett did hit 5 more HR, but the big difference is Puckett took much less walks, trying to drive in the run, where Joe, would take over twice as many walks.  
    Again, they are 2 different types of hitters, and Puckett would expand zone all the time, and Joe would take a fastball down the pipe half the time.  Both had amazing careers, and with the small difference in power, Puckett hitting 64 more HR over career, than Mauer that could account for the near 150 more RBI over career, but when you look at run scoring situations, Puckett was trying to drive in the run more often with approach, where Joe was just not wanting to get out.  
    Not saying either was better way to play, but point is, the difference in RBI when you look at full career was not just chances.  They had similar amount of similar chances, Joe even more with 2 outs, but Puckett produced a higher number of RBI in those situations.  
    In conclusion, RBI does not tell a full story, but when you look deeper, it can show if a guy is more prone to drive in runs in similar situations compared to others.  So when people dismiss RBI as a meaningless stat, maybe look deeper. 
  11. Like
    Trov got a reaction from DocBauer in Analyze This: Jose Abreu Is the Bat Minnesota Needs   
    I want to take a moment to talk about the RBI stat.  Many all in analytic people point to it and say it is dumb stat as does not reflect real value.  In a short stint I would say okay.  You know the whole drove in x runs in x games is not a huge deal, the player got hot when runners were on.  However, over the length of a career it does tell a story.  That story is they know how to drive in runs.  The only way you win a baseball game is scoring runs.
    People forget hitters get pitched different in different situations.  When we look at a full season, or career of stats, we can compare strike outs, walks, HR, slugging, OPS. and all the stats people love to point to for "real" value, and leave out how often they had chances to drive in a run.  Some guys hit about the same with RISP, or runners on base, where others do worse. I feel very few do better. 
    I want to compare two all time greats, completely different style hitters for the Twins.  Mauer and Puckett.  Both played similar amount of games, similar bWAR of 55. for Mauer, and bWar of 51 for Puckett.  Over their careers Mauer had 2107 PA with RISP.  Puckett had 2146 PA with RISP, so pretty similar amount of PA over the years.  If you want to break down to runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs, Mauer had 479 and Puckett had 530, a little bit more for Puckett in his career but not crazy amount. 
    In the runner on 3rd less than 2 outs, Joe had 311 RBI, Puckett had 383, which is to be expected a little bit with the extra 51 PA, but still extra 72 RBI.  They hit very similar slashes.  When you look at 3rd and 2 outs though, Mauer had 370 PA and Puckett had 343, but Mauer had 153 RBI and Puckett had 162, which means Puckett more often drove in the run percentage wise with 2 outs than Joe did.  It does not break down how often runners were on other bases in those situations so that could affect it. Puckett did hit 5 more HR, but the big difference is Puckett took much less walks, trying to drive in the run, where Joe, would take over twice as many walks.  
    Again, they are 2 different types of hitters, and Puckett would expand zone all the time, and Joe would take a fastball down the pipe half the time.  Both had amazing careers, and with the small difference in power, Puckett hitting 64 more HR over career, than Mauer that could account for the near 150 more RBI over career, but when you look at run scoring situations, Puckett was trying to drive in the run more often with approach, where Joe was just not wanting to get out.  
    Not saying either was better way to play, but point is, the difference in RBI when you look at full career was not just chances.  They had similar amount of similar chances, Joe even more with 2 outs, but Puckett produced a higher number of RBI in those situations.  
    In conclusion, RBI does not tell a full story, but when you look deeper, it can show if a guy is more prone to drive in runs in similar situations compared to others.  So when people dismiss RBI as a meaningless stat, maybe look deeper. 
  12. Like
    Trov got a reaction from mikelink45 in Analyze This: Jose Abreu Is the Bat Minnesota Needs   
    I want to take a moment to talk about the RBI stat.  Many all in analytic people point to it and say it is dumb stat as does not reflect real value.  In a short stint I would say okay.  You know the whole drove in x runs in x games is not a huge deal, the player got hot when runners were on.  However, over the length of a career it does tell a story.  That story is they know how to drive in runs.  The only way you win a baseball game is scoring runs.
    People forget hitters get pitched different in different situations.  When we look at a full season, or career of stats, we can compare strike outs, walks, HR, slugging, OPS. and all the stats people love to point to for "real" value, and leave out how often they had chances to drive in a run.  Some guys hit about the same with RISP, or runners on base, where others do worse. I feel very few do better. 
    I want to compare two all time greats, completely different style hitters for the Twins.  Mauer and Puckett.  Both played similar amount of games, similar bWAR of 55. for Mauer, and bWar of 51 for Puckett.  Over their careers Mauer had 2107 PA with RISP.  Puckett had 2146 PA with RISP, so pretty similar amount of PA over the years.  If you want to break down to runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs, Mauer had 479 and Puckett had 530, a little bit more for Puckett in his career but not crazy amount. 
    In the runner on 3rd less than 2 outs, Joe had 311 RBI, Puckett had 383, which is to be expected a little bit with the extra 51 PA, but still extra 72 RBI.  They hit very similar slashes.  When you look at 3rd and 2 outs though, Mauer had 370 PA and Puckett had 343, but Mauer had 153 RBI and Puckett had 162, which means Puckett more often drove in the run percentage wise with 2 outs than Joe did.  It does not break down how often runners were on other bases in those situations so that could affect it. Puckett did hit 5 more HR, but the big difference is Puckett took much less walks, trying to drive in the run, where Joe, would take over twice as many walks.  
    Again, they are 2 different types of hitters, and Puckett would expand zone all the time, and Joe would take a fastball down the pipe half the time.  Both had amazing careers, and with the small difference in power, Puckett hitting 64 more HR over career, than Mauer that could account for the near 150 more RBI over career, but when you look at run scoring situations, Puckett was trying to drive in the run more often with approach, where Joe was just not wanting to get out.  
    Not saying either was better way to play, but point is, the difference in RBI when you look at full career was not just chances.  They had similar amount of similar chances, Joe even more with 2 outs, but Puckett produced a higher number of RBI in those situations.  
    In conclusion, RBI does not tell a full story, but when you look deeper, it can show if a guy is more prone to drive in runs in similar situations compared to others.  So when people dismiss RBI as a meaningless stat, maybe look deeper. 
  13. Haha
    Trov got a reaction from RpR in Minnesota Adds Farmer to Infield Mix   
    No offense to Farmer, but if he has any major contribution to our team next year, we will not be in playoffs. 
  14. Like
    Trov got a reaction from tarheeltwinsfan in How Will Kyle Farmer Fit in for the Twins?   
    I did not see option 4, he gets traded before the season starts, similar to last year when we traded for a SS, only to trade him and sign CC. 
  15. Like
    Trov got a reaction from tarheeltwinsfan in What Happened to Jose Miranda's Swing During the 2022 Season? (Excerpt)   
    The game is always about adjustments, the best players make them quickly.  If teams continue to pitch him off the plate, he will just have to adjust to planning for that and leaving anything away, or looking to hit those to RF. Then teams will adjust and pitch him different again, and he will need to figure that out. 
  16. Like
    Trov got a reaction from mikelink45 in What Happened to Jose Miranda's Swing During the 2022 Season? (Excerpt)   
    The game is always about adjustments, the best players make them quickly.  If teams continue to pitch him off the plate, he will just have to adjust to planning for that and leaving anything away, or looking to hit those to RF. Then teams will adjust and pitch him different again, and he will need to figure that out. 
  17. Like
    Trov got a reaction from D.C Twins in Minnesota Adds Farmer to Infield Mix   
    No offense to Farmer, but if he has any major contribution to our team next year, we will not be in playoffs. 
  18. Like
    Trov got a reaction from RpR in What’s Next for Miguel Sano?   
    He will get a 1 year deal by some team that needs a bat.  He may be a big star in a new place.  He has always had the ability but never panned out here.  I am sure a team will take a shot at him. 
  19. Like
    Trov got a reaction from Karbo in What About The "Other" Carlos?   
    I am not big on him for a long term deal.  He has shown a couple of good seasons recently, but has long history of injury, and it took him a long time to pitch at a high level in MLB.  He was expected to hit the ground running with Sox, and they did not even give him a QO.  Very few pitchers pitch well into their mid-30's and many drop off early 30's with increased injuries.  Sure, you can point to future hall of famers as guys that pitched well into their late 30's, but for every one of them there are dozens of guys like Mad bum, David Price, Chris Sale, (who pitched well when healthy but has not been healthy much).
    Maybe because it took him several years to figure out the MLB level he will do fine in 30's, but I am not willing to break bank on a guy that could be on IL much of it, and or lose production.  I would be fine with a 3 year deal with vesting options based on innings pitched, but no 5 plus year deal.  
  20. Like
    Trov got a reaction from farmerguychris in What About The "Other" Carlos?   
    I am not big on him for a long term deal.  He has shown a couple of good seasons recently, but has long history of injury, and it took him a long time to pitch at a high level in MLB.  He was expected to hit the ground running with Sox, and they did not even give him a QO.  Very few pitchers pitch well into their mid-30's and many drop off early 30's with increased injuries.  Sure, you can point to future hall of famers as guys that pitched well into their late 30's, but for every one of them there are dozens of guys like Mad bum, David Price, Chris Sale, (who pitched well when healthy but has not been healthy much).
    Maybe because it took him several years to figure out the MLB level he will do fine in 30's, but I am not willing to break bank on a guy that could be on IL much of it, and or lose production.  I would be fine with a 3 year deal with vesting options based on innings pitched, but no 5 plus year deal.  
  21. Like
    Trov got a reaction from LoveMyPug in What About The "Other" Carlos?   
    I am not big on him for a long term deal.  He has shown a couple of good seasons recently, but has long history of injury, and it took him a long time to pitch at a high level in MLB.  He was expected to hit the ground running with Sox, and they did not even give him a QO.  Very few pitchers pitch well into their mid-30's and many drop off early 30's with increased injuries.  Sure, you can point to future hall of famers as guys that pitched well into their late 30's, but for every one of them there are dozens of guys like Mad bum, David Price, Chris Sale, (who pitched well when healthy but has not been healthy much).
    Maybe because it took him several years to figure out the MLB level he will do fine in 30's, but I am not willing to break bank on a guy that could be on IL much of it, and or lose production.  I would be fine with a 3 year deal with vesting options based on innings pitched, but no 5 plus year deal.  
  22. Like
    Trov got a reaction from roger in Twins Add Four to their 40-Man Roster   
    I am not an insider in the Twins organization, so I will defer to their call on Casey Legumina, but I am assuming Sisk will get taken in rule 5 as he is near MLB ready, pen guy, lefty.  If he is not taken in rule 5 I will be shocked.  That being said, there must be some reason the team, who passes like 5 pen guys through waivers every year, did not see a need to add him to 40 man. 
  23. Like
    Trov got a reaction from Steve Lein in Twins AFL Report (Week 6): Julien and Martin Lead Glendale to Championship Game   
    The way Julien is playing Polonco may be out of a job soon.  Martin can play OF, and Arraez can play DH or 1B, he was up for gold glove.  I am sure pitchers would not look forward to Martin lead off, Julien in the 2 or 3 with Luis the other.  The pitch counts could go up a ton, or you just throw it over and hope they hit it at someone.  
  24. Like
    Trov got a reaction from roger in Twins AFL Report (Week 6): Julien and Martin Lead Glendale to Championship Game   
    The way Julien is playing Polonco may be out of a job soon.  Martin can play OF, and Arraez can play DH or 1B, he was up for gold glove.  I am sure pitchers would not look forward to Martin lead off, Julien in the 2 or 3 with Luis the other.  The pitch counts could go up a ton, or you just throw it over and hope they hit it at someone.  
  25. Like
    Trov got a reaction from DocBauer in Should The Twins Bring Back Taylor Rogers?   
    If the price is right I am fine with brining him back, but it should be on a very cheap 1 year contract. 
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