Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

DocBauer

Verified Member
  • Posts

    8,500
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    44

Reputation Activity

  1. Like
    DocBauer reacted to Brock Beauchamp in Grading Falvey's Drafts Mid 2022   
    I mean, one doesn't have to look far to see the last paragraph in action: Griffin Jax. A marginal third round pick taken because the Twins liked his slider. Sure, he didn't work out as a starter because he couldn't develop much past that slider but now he looks like he'll be a multi-year contributor at the very least (barring injury).
    That's not an accident. Sure, the Twins may have taken a different third rounder the year before that fell on their face, that's baseball for you. But they intentionally targeted something about Jax that made them think he will be an MLB contributor and he's now contributing to the MLB team based on that single skill they targeted and refined.
  2. Like
    DocBauer reacted to Dman in Grading Falvey's Drafts Mid 2022   
    I tend to agree.  Scouts are still looking for specific traits in players that they think they can build on.  They are looking for players with untapped potential.  You could argue that it is those players in those rounds where the scouts earn their money.  Everyone knows who the top 100 players are even the fans.  We don't know which guys are going to work out but for the most part the top 200 players are set except for the order they will be picked.  Not sure it takes much scouting acumen to determine those players.  Players that look like sure things in the top 100 are not all going to work out. We see it every year no matter how good the organization.  Some consensus top 10 picks are not going to work out and that is pretty much the entire industry scouting players that come up with these rankings.  So scouting and top 100 lists are never perfect predictors of success at the MLB level even when the entire industry agrees.
    I agree and it is pretty much proven that the further out you get the less likely a player makes it but any players that do make it from those rounds is essentially found money and the team wasn't just throwing darts at the board on who they decided to pick.  They picked guys with specific tools and skillsets they felt they might be able to develop.  Sure most of them are not going to work but I still think you have to give credit to the organization for recognizing talent that was more deeply hidden and or had the ability to be developed.  Finding players that can play at the MLB level not even All-Star caliber players but even just a dominant relief arm has significant value to the organization so those lower picks matter IMO. 
  3. Like
    DocBauer reacted to Trov in Grading Falvey's Drafts Mid 2022   
    I respect the time and effort it takes to grade out how players are doing.  However, I find how a player is doing, even more so when injuries play a roll like in Lewis, it is poor way to evaluate a draft.  There are many factors that go into certain draft picks, like drafting a HS kid early because you expect he will sign under slot value, so you can use that money on an over slot value later on.  Unless the guy had injury concerns in say college or during high school, it is hard to fault a draft of a player only to have an injury that no one saw coming.
    Also, without context of who else was available around that pick, and when is your next pick. You point out Jeffers was considered a huge reach.  Okay, maybe, but we did not have a 3rd round pick.  So our next pick was not until Round 4. Which was pick 124.  Between those picks there was 4 catchers taken.  2 has made MLB but 1 has had very small sample size, with total of 25 games over 2 seasons, but his minor league numbers suggest the very small sample will not continue.  The other has half the games as Jeffers but might have more power.  I do not know the defenses to compare.  
    There was then 3 more catchers in round four that would have been available and none have made majors.  Being we have little to no catching prospects, and at the time Rortvelt was only prospect we had, a catcher was needed most likely.  There is not a whole lot of MLB players that were drafted after Jeffers and before our next pick, not sure how many are still prospects, but no names clearly jumped out to me.  I did not do deep dive so may have missed someone.  My point is though that to say we were wrong on Jeffers or it was a poor pick may not be actually true under the context of the pick.  One, he may not have been around the next pick, and there may not have been a better pick out there, at least not at the catching position.  He may not be an all-star or anything, but he still may be just as good or on par with any others in that draft. 
    I am not defending every pick by any means.  I was not a fan of the Cavaio pick or Sabato pick.  But to just see how your pick does does not do a true analysis without seeing how other options could have been and how they panned out. Unless you can point to someone you would have drafted, at the time not after seeing how they ended up, it is hard to say it was wrong pick, even more so when the pick makes the majors.  
    I do not know your grading scale, but looks like a C is MLB player, which is pretty low grade when 66% of 1st round picks make majors, 49% of 2nd round make majors, and only 33% of rounds 3 thru 5 make it. I would say sometimes the 1st rounds only make it as the team invested the time and money into them.  Is A+ MVP path, A all-star regular, B fringe all-star, C mlb player, D AAA regular with some MLB time, and F no MLB prospect? 
  4. Like
    DocBauer reacted to Brock Beauchamp in Grading Falvey's Drafts Mid 2022   
    Well, the 2018 draft is still very much a work in progress and Jeffers was a college draft pick so it's not really surprising he's leading the second round pack in June of 2022.
    But it should also be noted that Larnach (though also a college pick so keep that in mind) is around fifth in overall WAR from the first round but was only the 20th pick of the round.
    This grading scale seems impossibly difficult, where one must draft an All-Star or better to receive a decent grade. The reality of the draft is that if you get a competent regular from the first round every year, your baseball team will be very good. If you get more than one competent regular from any single draft, you had a very good draft.
    And I simply do not buy into the statement that anything after the third round is a crapshoot. That's where coaching and development comes into play; yes, the later rounds are more random but that's where good franchises pick the flawed players they like and try to coach them into being an MLB player. Dismissing those rounds out of hand ignores a big reason why the Tampa Bay Rays are perennially excellent while other franchises can't win after a half decade of top picks.
  5. Like
    DocBauer reacted to Brock Beauchamp in Grading Falvey's Drafts Mid 2022   
    You're too harsh on Jeffers. While his conventional stats are slightly ugly (but remember that while his 74 wRC+ looks terrible, league catchers only have an 87 wRC+), his advanced stats tell a different story. His wOBA is .269 while his xwOBA is .340. His barrel rate is 93rd percentile. His xSLG is 77th percentile.
    Given Jeffers' defense, even if he only climbs up to a league average 87 wRC+ (and his batted ball stats look like he's better than that), he's a valuable starting catcher.
  6. Like
    DocBauer reacted to bean5302 in Grading Falvey's Drafts Mid 2022   
    I am not bullish on Larnach and I was pretty critical of his projectability last year.
     

    But, the fact is he made huge strides against one of the most popular breaking pitches in the game which he was lost against last year, the slider. He's still been nearly useless against changeups, but there is some minor movement forward on that one too. I'll give credit where it's due and that's the reason he got a little bump up.
  7. Like
    DocBauer reacted to nicksaviking in Is there a Catching issue?   
    I think the catching issue is league wide. Take out Wilson Contreras, the league's best catcher, and the difference between a "good" catcher and a poor or average catcher (whatever you want to call Sanchez and Jeffers) is about 1 WAR. You can usually spend less in assets to improve the team in other areas.
    I'd just hold on tight and hope Alex Isola is the real deal. 
  8. Like
    DocBauer reacted to Rosterman in Frustration   
    I still don't understand pulling Smeltzer after four innings and 62 pitches. The ONE guy who has broken a hundred pitches and got us close to 7 innings. And we had a solid lead.
  9. Like
    DocBauer got a reaction from Matt Braun in Matt's Top Prospect List + Explanations   
    I think your list is largely accurate, with good comments on each. I could argue a few placements, but that's really just nit-picking and pointless. But I wanted to comment on a few guys here.
    1] Never understood all the questions about Lewis' defense. Ive seen enough in ST games, milb highlights, and his brief ML time to see a kid who is a great athlete who has the hands, range, arm, and pure athleticism to be at least a quality ML SS. If you can make the great plays, it's a matter of time and experience to make the routine plays more consistently. He's probably never going to be a Correa type defensively, but so few are. I think he's going to be very good, if not excellent, with his glove with a little more time. He's still so damn young.
    2] Martin has too much natural ability for the bat to not catch up. Crazy the expectations some have placed on him. College to nothing in 2020 and then straight to AA in his pro debut. The kid needs and deserves a little time, not unreal expectations of reaching the majors in 2022. I believe SOME power WILL COME. Again, just too much talent to not expect it to come. But he doesn't have to be a slugger to be very valuable. How about 30+ doubles with some triples and double digit HR's along with AVG and OB and speed that provides SB? Agreed he's probably not a real SS, but could play 2B and 3B and, IMO, should work there but be transitioned to the OF. I see him as an outstanding defensive LF who can also play CF. I get so frustrated when I read comments that he just won't be a quality offensive player without 20+ HR power for being an OF. When was it decided LF had to be a questionable defensive performer with power? I see Martin as being a clone of Alex Gordon, with more speed and a little less power, perhaps. 
    3] Miranda is still young and developing. He was a high pick the FO liked and was just waiting for the bat to catch up. That started in 2021. He's a rookie who has struggled initially...as if that's never happened before...but was starting to hit much better before his brief demotion. I think the bat is going to be just fine, though it's a question when the bulb begins to burn brightly. See "Lewis" in regard to settling down defensively as just being more consistent. The ability is there to at least be solid.
    4] I just can't get too down on Balazovic with his slow start. He's behind everyone with his late start. Everything is there to be very good. I'm betting by August, if not sooner, we're all very excited for him in 2023 and will forget about his rough start.
    5] Miller/Rodriguez: I get being torn between these two. Miller has surpassed my expectations and plays a premium position. Crazy how good he's looked so far in both areas. Man, if some power comes, LOOK OUT! I just cant believe how good and disciplined Rodriguez looks, while still providing power and production. I wouldn't want to "rob" him of his discipline, but I think he really starts cranking when he sacrifices a little bit of that discipline to hack and use his inate power.
    6] Canterino is one of the guys that I think you have too low. Maybe I'm just blindly optimistic, but I think he's a legitimate SP at this point. His stuff is crazy good and should continue to develop and play up as he gets time. Much is made about his wind-up. But Canterino has stated he's used it for years and feels comfortable with it. To my knowledge, he never had a concerning injury of any sort in college. The Twins only limited him in 2019 due to IP. His injury in 2021 didn't require any surgery, and happened after he missed 2020 like so many others. He's being brought along slowly this year, which I appreciate and applaud, and looking about as good as ever. At this point, I just don't understand calls to move him to the pen. Why? Desperation to help the parent club? No way, IMO. His stuff is just too damn good for a knee-jerk reaction. 
    And I'm going to add Festa here as well. Drafted, he's very tall and lanky, almost Ober-like, with vast potential to work with. He's EXACTLY the kind of projectile college arm the Twins love. He's already been promoted once, and there are already calls that he could be fast-tracked to the ML as a pen piece. Again, why? Why the rush and insistence to take an arm with SP potential and push him to the pen? 
    7] SWR and Henriquez are exactly where they should be. A pair of 21-22yo who should maybe be in A ball. Tons of talent and potential. And if they make a sudden jump, so be it. Move them up. But I'm very happy if they just sit at Wichita all year and just grow and get better.
    8] Your higher on Sands right now than I am, and I was previously optimistic. I was really encouraged by his 2021 and his first couple of starts for St Paul. Suddenly the wheels came off. He's driving me crazy. I've watched him pitch every game for the Twins, including the Detroit game tonight, and he is wild and hangs stuff, and then I see a couple great pitches and a couple great IP and I wonder what is wrong? Kaat was the color man tonight and he felt he was opening up too early and falling off toward 1st base too much. Could it be that simple? I see "stuff" and potential with Sands, but there is something missing. It may be confidence. It may be his follow through. Might be both. I think there is an arm to work with there, I'm just not sure what to do with it.
    9] Steer and Julien, to me, are sort of a "package" . Steer MIGHT just claim a starting spot in the next year or so. I still believe Miranda is the future 3B. But if for some reason he doesn't take hold, Steer just might. I believe he's going to be a "Marwin" type who plays 4 spots well and provides some good offense. I suspect Julien is going to be similar, play almost every day but not be a "starter". He will play 3 INF spots, LF, and occasionally DH and be a "sparkplug" type of player. This is where a really nice player like Gordon gets pushed out.
    10] Povich and Hajjar, is very interesting to me. You have a pair of top Big 10 pitchers who are so easily dismissed because of where they played, despite their success. Povich was drafted WAY higher than projected. Hajjar has the build and potential to be a SP and innings eater. Early results tell me Povich will be challenging for a rotation spot in 2024 and Hajjar will be a potentially dominate BP piece at the same time.
    GUILTY PLEASURE: There is SOMETHING about Raya since he was drafted that told me he was Berrios part 2.
    MISSED: I really thought Strotman was going to make a difference at some point this year. I just can't understand how far he's fallen off.
     
  10. Like
    DocBauer reacted to 4twinsJA in Matt's Top Prospect List + Explanations   
    Twins have some exciting prospects, hope a few of them get get moved up a level soon.
  11. Like
    DocBauer reacted to 4twinsJA in Examining the Twins Pitch Tempos   
    I am a fan of the pitch clock. But, I think 14 and 18 seconds may be a little fast. Maybe start at league average, focus on the worse offenders first. MLB could start with 18 sec. without baserunners and 24 sec. with baserunners. Then maybe progress down if things are going well.
  12. Like
    DocBauer reacted to Brock Beauchamp in Introducing Dark Mode!   
    That's so great to hear and thank you for sharing. I've been reluctant to implement dark mode because it's a ton of work and I don't like dark mode. I don't want to use it and it creates 50% more work whenever I have to make a change.
    Hearing comments like this reinforces not only my commitment to keeping this feature but also that I should have done it quite some time ago.
    Again, thank you.
  13. Like
    DocBauer got a reaction from Brock Beauchamp in Introducing Dark Mode!   
    Awesome Brock! TD just keeps getting better and better!
  14. Haha
    DocBauer reacted to Squirrel in Introducing Dark Mode!   
    Ooooooooh .... aaaaaaah .... 
  15. Haha
    DocBauer reacted to Squirrel in Introducing Dark Mode!   
    Then you're not doing it right  
  16. Haha
    DocBauer reacted to ashbury in Introducing Dark Mode!   
    My first experience using the Dark Web has been less life-changing than I expected.
  17. Like
    DocBauer got a reaction from Dman in Is Brent Rooker Better Than His Stats?    
    I'm taking a strange, opposite approach here.
    Rooker has always been declared as a solid athlete since drafted, and throughout his milb career, with a decent arm. This has been referenced to some degree in the OP. So why has that not translated? Has he just not worked hard enough at it? Or does he just not have good recognition skills? After watching such OF as Willingham and Young play the OF, I have the belief Rooker has room to improve defensively just through work and repitition.
    But his bat has to be his calling card, whether he is a DH or role player.
    He MIGHT be running out of time after a productive and exciting SSS in 2020. He sure didn't seem to take advantage in 2021 with the opportunities presented to him. But with a little 20/20 vision used, as well as some of the positives listed in the OP, he has clearly demonstrated in his milb career that each promotional level he has needed a little time to settle in, figure some things out, and then rake. Now, he hasn't exactly done the same thing at the ML level to be sure! And maybe he won't. But it's the hardest last step to make.
    I could see him being included in a package, especially to a team hurting for a semi-young power bat to add to their offense and willing to give him 400-500 AB. But I think he's talented enough I'd keep him on the 40 and continue working with him.
  18. Like
    DocBauer reacted to Trov in How Can You be Romantic About Baseball?   
    First, both sides are to blame, as both did not reach an agreement.  The players could have chose the owners offer, and the owners could have chose the players offer, but neither did.  To say it is all the owners fault, in my mind, is just not accurate.  
    I will agree the owners are not opening their books to prove what they actually make.  That is a huge issue.  Do not claim you barely make money, but refuse to actually prove it.  That being said, the owners should not be expected to lose money owning a team, just because they could afford to.  
    Fans need to remember that there are 30 teams and they have different interest too.  Even the players have different interests. There are large market owners, that would love to not have the luxary tax or have it higher like the players want.  However, there are small market owners that despite winning with little payroll still never get many fans in seats.  Then there are the teams in the middle.  Each has what they would like to see.  
    Personally, I would like to see as much parity in the sport as you can get, and I would love to see top players staying with their teams, no matter where they come from.  I hated the early 2000's where most of the top guys went to either Yankees or Red Sox, with a few going to other teams.  Now, I cannot see the owners books, but I believe that some of the smaller market teams cannot sign some of the free agents and be a profitable business, without getting revenue sharing.  I could be wrong, and most likely they could spend more. 
    The players are claiming they only care about making the game more competitive, but their proposals, outside of a draft lottery, which in baseball is a really who cares because rarely does the number 1 pick end up being the best player in the draft anyways, just does not make sense for competitive balance. 
    The players want to raise the tax level and lower the penalty for breaking it.  Well, very few teams any given year are within 20 mil of the number, meaning it is not what is stopping a team from signing some, but other factors.  What those factors are, I cannot say.  Lifting the tax number and lowering the penalty will just put the top few market teams back into looking to sign each top star and being able to outbid the lower tier teams. 
    The players are concerned about service time manipulation, which they should be, but decreasing years to FA, combined with higher tax line, will just make teams hold guys in minors even longer.  Teams tank or not be competitive for a couple of reasons.  One, they lack the current talent in their system to compete against other teams, so they keep their top prospects down to have longer team control when they do have enough talent to compete, and they do not want to waste money and years of service on losing seasons.  Two, more revenue sharing, international signing money, and more draft picks, getting the comp balance picks that they can use or trade.  
    Both sides are to blame for this, I would argue the owners more so, and I do not blame the players for their stance.  That being said, the players could accept what is offered, not saying they should.  Regardless of how this shakes out, I just hope it does not go back to the top market teams signing every major FA again, with a splash here or there from other teams.  What the players should really demand is not that the tax line goes up, but that the revenue sharing from it, has to be spent on players.  Meaning every dollar that goes to other teams from revenue sharing must go to signing players.  
    Not sure owners would go for it, but it gets you closer to what players want, better contracts across the board, not just bigger for the top few.  It would help keep teams more competitive.  
  19. Like
    DocBauer reacted to Richie the Rally Goat in How Can You be Romantic About Baseball?   
    I agree w/ the OP on who the villain is, but the author’s relative youth skews his perspective a bit.
    There has been unprecedented stability and peace between the League and the PA over the last 25 years. Since the PA’s inception until 1994/95 there was a work stoppage every 3-4 years.
    NHL, NBA and NFL have all had work stoppages since the last MLB stoppage. A work stoppage was an eventuality.
    So no, MLB fan engagement is not as low as it’s ever been. Not by a long shot. If there are games played with PA players in ‘22 it won’t sink lower than ‘95. I doubt the players have the fortitude to forfeit the season to sink it lower than ‘94/95. The owners do have the fortitude and Manfred hates baseball, so they’ll scrub the season to get their way.
  20. Like
    DocBauer reacted to Blyleven2011 in How Can You be Romantic About Baseball?   
    A right on review  ,,,, 
    It would be alot better if Manfred and owners loved the sport as much as the ( loyal fans ) did ,,, I'll take it another step though  , it also seems like the players don't love what they do and I guess that is business now adays  ....
    Fire Manfred and hire Ken Rosenthal who is enthusiastic and knowledgeable of the game .
  21. Like
    DocBauer reacted to Original_JB in Competitive Balance Tax Wobbly Floor   
    Why not go with a 4 year 'rolling average' type floor.  That gives teams time/room to build for the 'windows' method many teams feel they must use.
  22. Like
    DocBauer got a reaction from Ted Schwerzler in 2022 Minnesota Twins Top 15 Prospects   
    I know it's really easy to get carried away with prospect rankings and optimism of the players listed there. Look no further than the recent OP about the top 2018 list which contains a few who didn't make it, some with questions, at least one traded, etc. But each "list" should be addressed of its own accord. And I'm really excited about this list, despite some usual caveats. Because this is fun, and because I'm optimistic, and because we don't have anything ML related to talk about, we'll, here I go.
    SANDS is sort of a "poster child" for how this FO sees a path to pitching development. Right or wrong only time will tell, but they believe that unless a pitcher lands in your lap right off the top, there are a lot of guys with real potential to be developed past the first couple of picks. Sands seems to make their ideas valid, as have a couple lower selections thus far. I think he's close and is forgotten about by some. I might have ranked him higher. 
    WALLNER is a better version of Rooker, IMO. Reportedly, he's already a better OF defensively. That's not a knock on Rooker who still has a chance, I just think he's a better, more well rounded version. I don't expect a big BA, but time will tell. I liked what he did in his limited AFL.
    MILLER, fair or not, reminds me of JJ Hardy. A guy who may not have any single skill that is outstanding, but the ability to do everything well. He's a LONG WAY away, but can't wait to see what he does. Draft status and potential, I'm OK with him here.
    ENLOW shouldn't be penalized for his surgery. The ceiling remains high and he's still young. Hopefully he gets a few IP at the end of 2022 to get ready.
    WINDER should be a couple spots higher, IMO, but it's a testament to current depth that he's here. Decades of watching the draft, prospect lists, and MLB in general has taught me that unless you have the #1 pick in a year where a Clemmons or a Strasburg falls in your lucky lap, you NEVER draft an ACE. You draft and develop arms and their potential. And despite all the coaching you can give, an ACE is someone who also learns and develops on their own. Winder has front of the rotation potential. It may take a couple of years to reach his potential, but I think he pitches for the Twins in 2022. I think he has a good ceiling.
    CAVACO wasn't a mistake pick, but I wouldn't rank him this high. He is young, a late bloomer with trajectory when drafted, and has all the tools in the world. And like everyone else, he missed a full season. But I still need to see a little more from him to rank him this high. BUT, I would remind readers that he got off to a solid start in 2021 and was amongst the best bats/producers for a poor offensive Ft Myers team before an injury slowed him down. It's all up to him. The talent is there. I would be surprised if he doesn't start 2022 in low A despite some young options behind him. But would be pleased and not surprised if his talent took over and he hit A+ quickly.
    PETTY, to me, was an absolute gift. I know HS arms are the biggest guess/risk/reward possibilities for a 1st round selection. But I don't recall many times when I've seen a HS pitcher with an arm who throws high 90's consistently and touches 100 with a quality slider and a change that needs work but was still ranked a 50 on the scout scale. Hey, he's young and has a lot to show and work on and improve. He's a long way away. But to slide to the 20's confuses me unless it's because he's not 6' 2"+ and already over 200lbs and played in a northern climate for the most part. LMAO when I read a comment elsewhere that he projects as a BP arm when he's only 18yo and has so much ahead of him.
    CANTERINO just needs the baseball gods to give him health for 2022. So much for the Twins not drafting a pitcher high. They babied him his 1st season because of his IP in college. Makes sense. He was as advertised in his brief 2019. And he was again in his short 2021 after missing 2020. I believe his plan was to jump to AA quickly before injury happened. A curse for many arms, not just the Twins. His stuff is electric,though needing refinement. Some say his delivery screams BP. He says he's had the same delivery for years and feels comfortable with it. IDK! But if he's healthy and ready to go, he needs to be at Wichita from day one. He could be anywhere from a #1-2 SP to the next Nathan if starting just doesn't work out. 
    SWR has been regarded as a top 100 prospect for a couple of years now. He was not only young for AA but had his whole season disrupted by the Olympic experience. Just give the kid a chance to settle in. The stuff plays. I wouldn't be surprised if he appears in 2022 at some point.
    DURAN.......just be healthy. STOP the "let's just put him in the pen" conversation. I don't care if he sits in ST Paul for the whole year! Just let him stretch out, build innings, work on his stuff, and let him develop. Don't waste an opportunity to develop a potentially great arm.
    RYAN...just keep doing what you're doing kid. Keep the bulldog in you but don't be stubborn. Keep listening and learning.
    MIRANDA just needs opportunity. He is not a flash. He is a high draft choice who everyone has just been waiting to put it together. He has now. He was a high pick with potential, not some flier. Either make room for him or make him the 1st guy up when there is an opening. And depending on trades  or injury, he could make the opening day roster. Like I said in another OP, he COULD see time at LF or 1B depending on final roster construction. 
    BALAZOVIC is everything I said about Winder. The stuff and the build and everything you want. But what you want is just a little more time to put it together. 
    MARTIN is PROBABLY a stud LF/CF who can also play in the infield to follow the example the versatility of the Dogers that I feel the FO is looking at. But I'd keep playing him at SS for as long as I can. I mean, what's the worst that can happen? He suddenly turns out to be an optio there or he can at least cover that spot in addition to maye 2B/3B. 
    LEWIS IS  a lightening rod of sorts.  He has EERYTHING athletically to be a decent to good SS. When you watch him, you see great plays that few can make and you see smoothness, and his potential. We just need to see it daily. But it takes time. He's lost a lot of time, unfortunately. And he's NOT going to jump to the ML level without a little time to get his legs underneath him, literally, for defense AND offense,  despite his AFL MVP and reports about his 2020 play at the alternative site. This kid just might have the IT factor. Let's allow a tiny bit of time, OK?
    Pissed about the FO and things we don't have a clue about for2022 yet, just look at this list and get excited. 
     
  23. Like
    DocBauer got a reaction from tarheeltwinsfan in 2022 Minnesota Twins Top 15 Prospects   
    I know it's really easy to get carried away with prospect rankings and optimism of the players listed there. Look no further than the recent OP about the top 2018 list which contains a few who didn't make it, some with questions, at least one traded, etc. But each "list" should be addressed of its own accord. And I'm really excited about this list, despite some usual caveats. Because this is fun, and because I'm optimistic, and because we don't have anything ML related to talk about, we'll, here I go.
    SANDS is sort of a "poster child" for how this FO sees a path to pitching development. Right or wrong only time will tell, but they believe that unless a pitcher lands in your lap right off the top, there are a lot of guys with real potential to be developed past the first couple of picks. Sands seems to make their ideas valid, as have a couple lower selections thus far. I think he's close and is forgotten about by some. I might have ranked him higher. 
    WALLNER is a better version of Rooker, IMO. Reportedly, he's already a better OF defensively. That's not a knock on Rooker who still has a chance, I just think he's a better, more well rounded version. I don't expect a big BA, but time will tell. I liked what he did in his limited AFL.
    MILLER, fair or not, reminds me of JJ Hardy. A guy who may not have any single skill that is outstanding, but the ability to do everything well. He's a LONG WAY away, but can't wait to see what he does. Draft status and potential, I'm OK with him here.
    ENLOW shouldn't be penalized for his surgery. The ceiling remains high and he's still young. Hopefully he gets a few IP at the end of 2022 to get ready.
    WINDER should be a couple spots higher, IMO, but it's a testament to current depth that he's here. Decades of watching the draft, prospect lists, and MLB in general has taught me that unless you have the #1 pick in a year where a Clemmons or a Strasburg falls in your lucky lap, you NEVER draft an ACE. You draft and develop arms and their potential. And despite all the coaching you can give, an ACE is someone who also learns and develops on their own. Winder has front of the rotation potential. It may take a couple of years to reach his potential, but I think he pitches for the Twins in 2022. I think he has a good ceiling.
    CAVACO wasn't a mistake pick, but I wouldn't rank him this high. He is young, a late bloomer with trajectory when drafted, and has all the tools in the world. And like everyone else, he missed a full season. But I still need to see a little more from him to rank him this high. BUT, I would remind readers that he got off to a solid start in 2021 and was amongst the best bats/producers for a poor offensive Ft Myers team before an injury slowed him down. It's all up to him. The talent is there. I would be surprised if he doesn't start 2022 in low A despite some young options behind him. But would be pleased and not surprised if his talent took over and he hit A+ quickly.
    PETTY, to me, was an absolute gift. I know HS arms are the biggest guess/risk/reward possibilities for a 1st round selection. But I don't recall many times when I've seen a HS pitcher with an arm who throws high 90's consistently and touches 100 with a quality slider and a change that needs work but was still ranked a 50 on the scout scale. Hey, he's young and has a lot to show and work on and improve. He's a long way away. But to slide to the 20's confuses me unless it's because he's not 6' 2"+ and already over 200lbs and played in a northern climate for the most part. LMAO when I read a comment elsewhere that he projects as a BP arm when he's only 18yo and has so much ahead of him.
    CANTERINO just needs the baseball gods to give him health for 2022. So much for the Twins not drafting a pitcher high. They babied him his 1st season because of his IP in college. Makes sense. He was as advertised in his brief 2019. And he was again in his short 2021 after missing 2020. I believe his plan was to jump to AA quickly before injury happened. A curse for many arms, not just the Twins. His stuff is electric,though needing refinement. Some say his delivery screams BP. He says he's had the same delivery for years and feels comfortable with it. IDK! But if he's healthy and ready to go, he needs to be at Wichita from day one. He could be anywhere from a #1-2 SP to the next Nathan if starting just doesn't work out. 
    SWR has been regarded as a top 100 prospect for a couple of years now. He was not only young for AA but had his whole season disrupted by the Olympic experience. Just give the kid a chance to settle in. The stuff plays. I wouldn't be surprised if he appears in 2022 at some point.
    DURAN.......just be healthy. STOP the "let's just put him in the pen" conversation. I don't care if he sits in ST Paul for the whole year! Just let him stretch out, build innings, work on his stuff, and let him develop. Don't waste an opportunity to develop a potentially great arm.
    RYAN...just keep doing what you're doing kid. Keep the bulldog in you but don't be stubborn. Keep listening and learning.
    MIRANDA just needs opportunity. He is not a flash. He is a high draft choice who everyone has just been waiting to put it together. He has now. He was a high pick with potential, not some flier. Either make room for him or make him the 1st guy up when there is an opening. And depending on trades  or injury, he could make the opening day roster. Like I said in another OP, he COULD see time at LF or 1B depending on final roster construction. 
    BALAZOVIC is everything I said about Winder. The stuff and the build and everything you want. But what you want is just a little more time to put it together. 
    MARTIN is PROBABLY a stud LF/CF who can also play in the infield to follow the example the versatility of the Dogers that I feel the FO is looking at. But I'd keep playing him at SS for as long as I can. I mean, what's the worst that can happen? He suddenly turns out to be an optio there or he can at least cover that spot in addition to maye 2B/3B. 
    LEWIS IS  a lightening rod of sorts.  He has EERYTHING athletically to be a decent to good SS. When you watch him, you see great plays that few can make and you see smoothness, and his potential. We just need to see it daily. But it takes time. He's lost a lot of time, unfortunately. And he's NOT going to jump to the ML level without a little time to get his legs underneath him, literally, for defense AND offense,  despite his AFL MVP and reports about his 2020 play at the alternative site. This kid just might have the IT factor. Let's allow a tiny bit of time, OK?
    Pissed about the FO and things we don't have a clue about for2022 yet, just look at this list and get excited. 
     
  24. Like
    DocBauer got a reaction from NoCryingInBaseball in 2022 Minnesota Twins Top 15 Prospects   
    I know it's really easy to get carried away with prospect rankings and optimism of the players listed there. Look no further than the recent OP about the top 2018 list which contains a few who didn't make it, some with questions, at least one traded, etc. But each "list" should be addressed of its own accord. And I'm really excited about this list, despite some usual caveats. Because this is fun, and because I'm optimistic, and because we don't have anything ML related to talk about, we'll, here I go.
    SANDS is sort of a "poster child" for how this FO sees a path to pitching development. Right or wrong only time will tell, but they believe that unless a pitcher lands in your lap right off the top, there are a lot of guys with real potential to be developed past the first couple of picks. Sands seems to make their ideas valid, as have a couple lower selections thus far. I think he's close and is forgotten about by some. I might have ranked him higher. 
    WALLNER is a better version of Rooker, IMO. Reportedly, he's already a better OF defensively. That's not a knock on Rooker who still has a chance, I just think he's a better, more well rounded version. I don't expect a big BA, but time will tell. I liked what he did in his limited AFL.
    MILLER, fair or not, reminds me of JJ Hardy. A guy who may not have any single skill that is outstanding, but the ability to do everything well. He's a LONG WAY away, but can't wait to see what he does. Draft status and potential, I'm OK with him here.
    ENLOW shouldn't be penalized for his surgery. The ceiling remains high and he's still young. Hopefully he gets a few IP at the end of 2022 to get ready.
    WINDER should be a couple spots higher, IMO, but it's a testament to current depth that he's here. Decades of watching the draft, prospect lists, and MLB in general has taught me that unless you have the #1 pick in a year where a Clemmons or a Strasburg falls in your lucky lap, you NEVER draft an ACE. You draft and develop arms and their potential. And despite all the coaching you can give, an ACE is someone who also learns and develops on their own. Winder has front of the rotation potential. It may take a couple of years to reach his potential, but I think he pitches for the Twins in 2022. I think he has a good ceiling.
    CAVACO wasn't a mistake pick, but I wouldn't rank him this high. He is young, a late bloomer with trajectory when drafted, and has all the tools in the world. And like everyone else, he missed a full season. But I still need to see a little more from him to rank him this high. BUT, I would remind readers that he got off to a solid start in 2021 and was amongst the best bats/producers for a poor offensive Ft Myers team before an injury slowed him down. It's all up to him. The talent is there. I would be surprised if he doesn't start 2022 in low A despite some young options behind him. But would be pleased and not surprised if his talent took over and he hit A+ quickly.
    PETTY, to me, was an absolute gift. I know HS arms are the biggest guess/risk/reward possibilities for a 1st round selection. But I don't recall many times when I've seen a HS pitcher with an arm who throws high 90's consistently and touches 100 with a quality slider and a change that needs work but was still ranked a 50 on the scout scale. Hey, he's young and has a lot to show and work on and improve. He's a long way away. But to slide to the 20's confuses me unless it's because he's not 6' 2"+ and already over 200lbs and played in a northern climate for the most part. LMAO when I read a comment elsewhere that he projects as a BP arm when he's only 18yo and has so much ahead of him.
    CANTERINO just needs the baseball gods to give him health for 2022. So much for the Twins not drafting a pitcher high. They babied him his 1st season because of his IP in college. Makes sense. He was as advertised in his brief 2019. And he was again in his short 2021 after missing 2020. I believe his plan was to jump to AA quickly before injury happened. A curse for many arms, not just the Twins. His stuff is electric,though needing refinement. Some say his delivery screams BP. He says he's had the same delivery for years and feels comfortable with it. IDK! But if he's healthy and ready to go, he needs to be at Wichita from day one. He could be anywhere from a #1-2 SP to the next Nathan if starting just doesn't work out. 
    SWR has been regarded as a top 100 prospect for a couple of years now. He was not only young for AA but had his whole season disrupted by the Olympic experience. Just give the kid a chance to settle in. The stuff plays. I wouldn't be surprised if he appears in 2022 at some point.
    DURAN.......just be healthy. STOP the "let's just put him in the pen" conversation. I don't care if he sits in ST Paul for the whole year! Just let him stretch out, build innings, work on his stuff, and let him develop. Don't waste an opportunity to develop a potentially great arm.
    RYAN...just keep doing what you're doing kid. Keep the bulldog in you but don't be stubborn. Keep listening and learning.
    MIRANDA just needs opportunity. He is not a flash. He is a high draft choice who everyone has just been waiting to put it together. He has now. He was a high pick with potential, not some flier. Either make room for him or make him the 1st guy up when there is an opening. And depending on trades  or injury, he could make the opening day roster. Like I said in another OP, he COULD see time at LF or 1B depending on final roster construction. 
    BALAZOVIC is everything I said about Winder. The stuff and the build and everything you want. But what you want is just a little more time to put it together. 
    MARTIN is PROBABLY a stud LF/CF who can also play in the infield to follow the example the versatility of the Dogers that I feel the FO is looking at. But I'd keep playing him at SS for as long as I can. I mean, what's the worst that can happen? He suddenly turns out to be an optio there or he can at least cover that spot in addition to maye 2B/3B. 
    LEWIS IS  a lightening rod of sorts.  He has EERYTHING athletically to be a decent to good SS. When you watch him, you see great plays that few can make and you see smoothness, and his potential. We just need to see it daily. But it takes time. He's lost a lot of time, unfortunately. And he's NOT going to jump to the ML level without a little time to get his legs underneath him, literally, for defense AND offense,  despite his AFL MVP and reports about his 2020 play at the alternative site. This kid just might have the IT factor. Let's allow a tiny bit of time, OK?
    Pissed about the FO and things we don't have a clue about for2022 yet, just look at this list and get excited. 
     
  25. Haha
    DocBauer reacted to Highlander1 in 2022 Minnesota Twins Top 15 Prospects   
    You should have wrote the article! LOL, two excellent reviews. 
×
×
  • Create New...