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DocBauer

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  1. Like
    DocBauer got a reaction from Doctor Gast in Checking in on the Twins 2021 Draft Class: Part 1   
    Thank you for a great write up and wonderful review. Well done!
    What I find so interesting about this draft, which I haven't really heard anyone else talk about, is the Twins first 4 picks all came from northern climate schools. There has long been a prejudice against players from northern climate as they don't have year round opportunities to play, and those schools don't always get the same attention in recruiting from southern prospects. (Petty is a HS kid of course and wasn't a recruit). But I think recent history has begun to change that perspective. Talent is talent and if someone needs an extra half season or so to develop, so what if he's ultimately as good or better.
    Very happy to see 3 LH pitchers selected. I know you don't draft for need, but some solid LH arms ARE a need in the system, really excited about Hajjar and his frame. Guarantee his velocity goes up, and with a great change, I see a ton of potential. Ditto for Macleod, though with a curve and needing a change. Not sure about physical growth and velocity with Povich, but the control certainly seems to be there. He seems to have a nice assortment of pitches it's just a question how well his repertoire plays with at least a little better velocity. Is he another Barnes? Or is there more there?
    The bat and power of Encarnacion-strand plays. From all reports, the arm is excellent. What I care about is does he have decent feet? Does he have hands of stone, or are they pliable? His range may be limited. But with decdnt feet and a good arm I'd keep him at 3B as long as possible. 
    Drafting 2 catchers in the top 10 with potential is always a good idea to me.
     
  2. Like
    DocBauer got a reaction from Minny505 in Checking in on the Twins 2021 Draft Class: Part 1   
    Thank you for a great write up and wonderful review. Well done!
    What I find so interesting about this draft, which I haven't really heard anyone else talk about, is the Twins first 4 picks all came from northern climate schools. There has long been a prejudice against players from northern climate as they don't have year round opportunities to play, and those schools don't always get the same attention in recruiting from southern prospects. (Petty is a HS kid of course and wasn't a recruit). But I think recent history has begun to change that perspective. Talent is talent and if someone needs an extra half season or so to develop, so what if he's ultimately as good or better.
    Very happy to see 3 LH pitchers selected. I know you don't draft for need, but some solid LH arms ARE a need in the system, really excited about Hajjar and his frame. Guarantee his velocity goes up, and with a great change, I see a ton of potential. Ditto for Macleod, though with a curve and needing a change. Not sure about physical growth and velocity with Povich, but the control certainly seems to be there. He seems to have a nice assortment of pitches it's just a question how well his repertoire plays with at least a little better velocity. Is he another Barnes? Or is there more there?
    The bat and power of Encarnacion-strand plays. From all reports, the arm is excellent. What I care about is does he have decent feet? Does he have hands of stone, or are they pliable? His range may be limited. But with decdnt feet and a good arm I'd keep him at 3B as long as possible. 
    Drafting 2 catchers in the top 10 with potential is always a good idea to me.
     
  3. Like
    DocBauer got a reaction from James in Checking in on the Twins 2021 Draft Class: Part 1   
    Thank you for a great write up and wonderful review. Well done!
    What I find so interesting about this draft, which I haven't really heard anyone else talk about, is the Twins first 4 picks all came from northern climate schools. There has long been a prejudice against players from northern climate as they don't have year round opportunities to play, and those schools don't always get the same attention in recruiting from southern prospects. (Petty is a HS kid of course and wasn't a recruit). But I think recent history has begun to change that perspective. Talent is talent and if someone needs an extra half season or so to develop, so what if he's ultimately as good or better.
    Very happy to see 3 LH pitchers selected. I know you don't draft for need, but some solid LH arms ARE a need in the system, really excited about Hajjar and his frame. Guarantee his velocity goes up, and with a great change, I see a ton of potential. Ditto for Macleod, though with a curve and needing a change. Not sure about physical growth and velocity with Povich, but the control certainly seems to be there. He seems to have a nice assortment of pitches it's just a question how well his repertoire plays with at least a little better velocity. Is he another Barnes? Or is there more there?
    The bat and power of Encarnacion-strand plays. From all reports, the arm is excellent. What I care about is does he have decent feet? Does he have hands of stone, or are they pliable? His range may be limited. But with decdnt feet and a good arm I'd keep him at 3B as long as possible. 
    Drafting 2 catchers in the top 10 with potential is always a good idea to me.
     
  4. Like
    DocBauer got a reaction from Andrew Mahlke in Checking in on the Twins 2021 Draft Class: Part 1   
    Thank you for a great write up and wonderful review. Well done!
    What I find so interesting about this draft, which I haven't really heard anyone else talk about, is the Twins first 4 picks all came from northern climate schools. There has long been a prejudice against players from northern climate as they don't have year round opportunities to play, and those schools don't always get the same attention in recruiting from southern prospects. (Petty is a HS kid of course and wasn't a recruit). But I think recent history has begun to change that perspective. Talent is talent and if someone needs an extra half season or so to develop, so what if he's ultimately as good or better.
    Very happy to see 3 LH pitchers selected. I know you don't draft for need, but some solid LH arms ARE a need in the system, really excited about Hajjar and his frame. Guarantee his velocity goes up, and with a great change, I see a ton of potential. Ditto for Macleod, though with a curve and needing a change. Not sure about physical growth and velocity with Povich, but the control certainly seems to be there. He seems to have a nice assortment of pitches it's just a question how well his repertoire plays with at least a little better velocity. Is he another Barnes? Or is there more there?
    The bat and power of Encarnacion-strand plays. From all reports, the arm is excellent. What I care about is does he have decent feet? Does he have hands of stone, or are they pliable? His range may be limited. But with decdnt feet and a good arm I'd keep him at 3B as long as possible. 
    Drafting 2 catchers in the top 10 with potential is always a good idea to me.
     
  5. Like
    DocBauer got a reaction from tarheeltwinsfan in Checking in on the Twins 2021 Draft Class: Part 1   
    Thank you for a great write up and wonderful review. Well done!
    What I find so interesting about this draft, which I haven't really heard anyone else talk about, is the Twins first 4 picks all came from northern climate schools. There has long been a prejudice against players from northern climate as they don't have year round opportunities to play, and those schools don't always get the same attention in recruiting from southern prospects. (Petty is a HS kid of course and wasn't a recruit). But I think recent history has begun to change that perspective. Talent is talent and if someone needs an extra half season or so to develop, so what if he's ultimately as good or better.
    Very happy to see 3 LH pitchers selected. I know you don't draft for need, but some solid LH arms ARE a need in the system, really excited about Hajjar and his frame. Guarantee his velocity goes up, and with a great change, I see a ton of potential. Ditto for Macleod, though with a curve and needing a change. Not sure about physical growth and velocity with Povich, but the control certainly seems to be there. He seems to have a nice assortment of pitches it's just a question how well his repertoire plays with at least a little better velocity. Is he another Barnes? Or is there more there?
    The bat and power of Encarnacion-strand plays. From all reports, the arm is excellent. What I care about is does he have decent feet? Does he have hands of stone, or are they pliable? His range may be limited. But with decdnt feet and a good arm I'd keep him at 3B as long as possible. 
    Drafting 2 catchers in the top 10 with potential is always a good idea to me.
     
  6. Like
    DocBauer got a reaction from TopGunn#22 in Checking in on the Twins 2021 Draft Class: Part 1   
    Thank you for a great write up and wonderful review. Well done!
    What I find so interesting about this draft, which I haven't really heard anyone else talk about, is the Twins first 4 picks all came from northern climate schools. There has long been a prejudice against players from northern climate as they don't have year round opportunities to play, and those schools don't always get the same attention in recruiting from southern prospects. (Petty is a HS kid of course and wasn't a recruit). But I think recent history has begun to change that perspective. Talent is talent and if someone needs an extra half season or so to develop, so what if he's ultimately as good or better.
    Very happy to see 3 LH pitchers selected. I know you don't draft for need, but some solid LH arms ARE a need in the system, really excited about Hajjar and his frame. Guarantee his velocity goes up, and with a great change, I see a ton of potential. Ditto for Macleod, though with a curve and needing a change. Not sure about physical growth and velocity with Povich, but the control certainly seems to be there. He seems to have a nice assortment of pitches it's just a question how well his repertoire plays with at least a little better velocity. Is he another Barnes? Or is there more there?
    The bat and power of Encarnacion-strand plays. From all reports, the arm is excellent. What I care about is does he have decent feet? Does he have hands of stone, or are they pliable? His range may be limited. But with decdnt feet and a good arm I'd keep him at 3B as long as possible. 
    Drafting 2 catchers in the top 10 with potential is always a good idea to me.
     
  7. Like
    DocBauer got a reaction from ToddlerHarmon in A 21-22 Offseason Idea   
    Levi, this is extremely well thought out and practical! Bless you and your hard work to put this together and being more in touch with some prosoects and lesser known players that I'm just not in touch with, Jose Butto from the Mets as an example. And I agree with Vanimal tbat what you've presented may be better than an "also ran" roster. But I'd like to offer a critique, but not a criticism. Just a few thoughts and questions.
    1] I think you are just about spot-on with Buxton.
    2] Maybe it's just me, but I think Garver, BIG bat, decent defense, experienced, great team control, might be worth more than Sanchez. And then I read where Sanchez is coming off surgery. So with my belief in Garver, even without surgery for Sanchez, I'm thinking a sweetener for someone better and more proven. 
    And while I don't want to move him as I think he bas a great future, if I'm Miami, and building, might I be more interested in Jeffers? Or Jeffers and a sweetener for one of my more proven arms? I'm just thinking being more aggressive for Alcacantara or Lopez, etc, for Garver/Jeffers and a sweetener. Miami may be looking more for youth and potential.
    3] Donaldson to the Mets makes so much sense it's scary. I think you nailed it. I really hate to lose him for 2022, and what he could add to the lineup, but your proposal makes a lot of sense for both teams. Especially if a catcher and other to Miami works out.
    4] Doesn't Seager re-sign with the Dogers? Speculation. Is Story the best 2nd choice? I worry about the Colorado factor. What about Baez? I know there  is some negatives around him, but nothing really bad. He might come a little cheaper.
    5] Cool with Gray. But would Stoman for a few $M be out of reach? It still wouldn't blow your final numbers out of the water and makes sense to me.
    6] LF is kind of a potential wasteland with Rooker and others and I get that! You're looking forward. Larnach could settle that spot, and Rooker could adapt and surprise. Hell, could be be any worse than Young or Willingham if he hits? But work with me here brother, you listed MARTEN as an option by mid-season. I'm ASSUMING you are speaking about Martin and not FA Marte, right? Just want to be clear.
    7]  Love your pen, but head and heart says protect Minaya if you can afford to 40 man wise. 
    Again, just a few questions and a critique. Great job!
  8. Like
    DocBauer reacted to TheLeviathan in A 21-22 Offseason Idea   
    On each point:
    2) I think the conversation with Miami starts with feeling out who they like and who they are prepared to offer.  They clearly want catching and we have it.  They clearly have pitching and we want it.  So the framework is there, how it hashes out from there is pretty hard to predict.  Sixto's injury is worrisome, but what he showed when he first came up was brilliant.  It's a risky move to be sure.
    4) Maybe he does.  If I'm the Dodgers I could see them keeping Turner and Taylor and rolling with those two instead.  But yes, the possibility definitely exists that he is retained by LAD.  I like Story and then Simien in that order.  I like Correa, of course, but this entire plan is based on going under where the heavy bidding starts and sniping guys who won't be number 1 on all the shopping lists.  I see Stroman the same way even though I really like him.
    6) My brain has this weird thing about Austin Martin.  Every time I want to say something about him my brain says "His name isn't spelled how you think!" and then I just make some stupid thing up and confuse myself and others, clearly.  I meant the kid we got for Berrios.  I think he's a future LFer for this team and that is the dude I want there down the stretch.
     
  9. Like
    DocBauer got a reaction from TheLeviathan in A 21-22 Offseason Idea   
    Levi, this is extremely well thought out and practical! Bless you and your hard work to put this together and being more in touch with some prosoects and lesser known players that I'm just not in touch with, Jose Butto from the Mets as an example. And I agree with Vanimal tbat what you've presented may be better than an "also ran" roster. But I'd like to offer a critique, but not a criticism. Just a few thoughts and questions.
    1] I think you are just about spot-on with Buxton.
    2] Maybe it's just me, but I think Garver, BIG bat, decent defense, experienced, great team control, might be worth more than Sanchez. And then I read where Sanchez is coming off surgery. So with my belief in Garver, even without surgery for Sanchez, I'm thinking a sweetener for someone better and more proven. 
    And while I don't want to move him as I think he bas a great future, if I'm Miami, and building, might I be more interested in Jeffers? Or Jeffers and a sweetener for one of my more proven arms? I'm just thinking being more aggressive for Alcacantara or Lopez, etc, for Garver/Jeffers and a sweetener. Miami may be looking more for youth and potential.
    3] Donaldson to the Mets makes so much sense it's scary. I think you nailed it. I really hate to lose him for 2022, and what he could add to the lineup, but your proposal makes a lot of sense for both teams. Especially if a catcher and other to Miami works out.
    4] Doesn't Seager re-sign with the Dogers? Speculation. Is Story the best 2nd choice? I worry about the Colorado factor. What about Baez? I know there  is some negatives around him, but nothing really bad. He might come a little cheaper.
    5] Cool with Gray. But would Stoman for a few $M be out of reach? It still wouldn't blow your final numbers out of the water and makes sense to me.
    6] LF is kind of a potential wasteland with Rooker and others and I get that! You're looking forward. Larnach could settle that spot, and Rooker could adapt and surprise. Hell, could be be any worse than Young or Willingham if he hits? But work with me here brother, you listed MARTEN as an option by mid-season. I'm ASSUMING you are speaking about Martin and not FA Marte, right? Just want to be clear.
    7]  Love your pen, but head and heart says protect Minaya if you can afford to 40 man wise. 
    Again, just a few questions and a critique. Great job!
  10. Like
    DocBauer reacted to bean5302 in A 21-22 Offseason Idea   
    Sixto Sanchez underwent capsule repair shoulder surgery with additional cleanup. There is no timetable on him and the chances he returns at his pre-surgery performance levels are poor if he ever returns to MLB caliber at all. This isn't UCL surgery, this is shoulder surgery which often ruins pitching careers.
  11. Like
    DocBauer reacted to Vanimal46 in A 21-22 Offseason Idea   
    Love it. I’m pretty much in alignment with you with this plan. We need to sign one of the premiere SS free agents long term and let the chips fall later with Martin and Lewis. 
    I think you’re selling this roster short to be honest. Looks like a competitive roster that can compete for at least a wild card to me…Massive upgrade at SS, 3 pitchers who can slot ahead of Ober and Ryan. I give up predicting what relievers are going to do. For all I know that cobbled together group is a top 10 or bottom 10 unit. I’m not a huge fan of Arraez at 3B and Rooker in LF, but we have reinforcements who can end up playing at those positions. And there’s room in the budget to acquire help at the trade deadline if we’re above .500. 
  12. Like
    DocBauer reacted to mike8791 in A 21-22 Offseason Idea   
    Nice work - you have some interesting ideas, particularly picking up Corey Knebel as a potential closer.  Add Ryan Tepera to the pen and you've markedly improved a glaring weakness.
    And you're on the right track in trading Garver to Miami for rotation help, but there's no reason to shoot so low(not that Sanchez is not a top prospect, but we have enough prospects).  We need top-of-the rotation starters, like Alcantara or Lopez, while the Marlins need OF help in addition to catching.   What about Garver(or Jeffers who I think would garner more interest from a young team on the rise) and Kepler(or Arraez).  Throw in one of our top 10 prospects or Larnach, and I think the fish would bite.
    Can't get too excited about Gray as our top FA signing.   Instead of a pricey FA SS like Seager, spend the money on a Rodon or Ray or Stroman or Gausman.  We can fill the shortstop hole with a good fielding SS for a fraction of the price Seager would cost, leaving $25MM/yr for one of the four listed above.  Either Thor, Gray or Pineda(in that order) would slot in  as a solid #3, giving us one of the stronger rotations in the league.
    Of course, if the FO has no intention of contending in 2022, then your plan is more likely(sans Seager)  but do you really think the 2023 Twins would contend for the playoffs?  I just don't have enough faith in this org's prospect development program to count on at least 3 of our young pitchers to all be positive contributors in a 2023 playoff push.  You have to remember that our lineup for the next 2-3 years is competitive with Bux, JD, Sano, Polanco, Kirillof forming a pretty solid core.   Why waste this core in another rebuild?
     
  13. Like
    DocBauer got a reaction from Dave The Dastardly in Did Nick Gordon Do Enough?   
    To answer the question posed in the headline, he did as much as he could with what he was given. 
    Despite impressively transitioning to the OF/CF on the fly, he was still used a bit inconsistently in a losing year. There were absolutely additional opportunities to play he could have been given.
    His offense wasn't great, but was solid enough for a utility type. He showed a little pop and no question the speed he displayed is very welcome. 
    He's always been know for building on his previous experience at a repeat of a level. That should hopefully be the situation here. Additionally, what would a good, healthy 10-15 pounds do for this kid? Sure hope to find out.
  14. Like
    DocBauer reacted to Doctor Gast in What should the Twins offer Byron Buxton?   
    To answer my own ?. It looks like they offered him 70M for  base pay. This I've heard he has no problem with, it's the incentives where there's a problem. To me Buck isn't asking too much.
  15. Like
    DocBauer got a reaction from AceWrigley in Did Nick Gordon Do Enough?   
    To answer the question posed in the headline, he did as much as he could with what he was given. 
    Despite impressively transitioning to the OF/CF on the fly, he was still used a bit inconsistently in a losing year. There were absolutely additional opportunities to play he could have been given.
    His offense wasn't great, but was solid enough for a utility type. He showed a little pop and no question the speed he displayed is very welcome. 
    He's always been know for building on his previous experience at a repeat of a level. That should hopefully be the situation here. Additionally, what would a good, healthy 10-15 pounds do for this kid? Sure hope to find out.
  16. Like
    DocBauer got a reaction from Greglw3 in Did Nick Gordon Do Enough?   
    To answer the question posed in the headline, he did as much as he could with what he was given. 
    Despite impressively transitioning to the OF/CF on the fly, he was still used a bit inconsistently in a losing year. There were absolutely additional opportunities to play he could have been given.
    His offense wasn't great, but was solid enough for a utility type. He showed a little pop and no question the speed he displayed is very welcome. 
    He's always been know for building on his previous experience at a repeat of a level. That should hopefully be the situation here. Additionally, what would a good, healthy 10-15 pounds do for this kid? Sure hope to find out.
  17. Like
    DocBauer reacted to Rosterman in Non-tendering Taylor Rogers Would Be a Huge Mistake   
    If they sign him, they can negotiate long-term once they see how the finger has healed.
     
    He would be a trade chip mid-season if need be.
     
    If he totally lights-out excels, he could also be a qualifying offer candidate for an additional season.
     
    Can you replace him with an equal arm (or two) for the same price.
     
    The Twins really won't be over payroll in 2022. They can afford it.
  18. Like
    DocBauer reacted to bean5302 in Josh Donaldson Crushed Baseballs in 2021   
    I honestly believe the league batting average is a function of the focus on drafting and developing 3 outcome hitters. It leads to more fly balls, which typically have low batting averages associated with them rather than factors which are outside the hitters control like pitchers or shifts. That's why I chose to compare Donaldson to himself rather than mention the league trend :)
  19. Like
    DocBauer reacted to AceWrigley in Josh Donaldson Crushed Baseballs in 2021   
    Good work. Another thing to consider is league batting averages have declined significantly too.  JD's line drive rate was down and flyball rate up. Still, an OPS+ of 127 was higher than Polanco (125) even.
    JD at 3B-DH for the Twins next year is not a problem that needs fixing.
  20. Like
    DocBauer reacted to TopGunn#22 in Let Me Talk About Catchers   
    I've commented on this several times as well.  With the Marlins as a trade target, the Twins have both Garver and Jeffers who should be VERY interesting to Miami.  MLB Trade values currently has Garver at 18.1 and Jeffers at 27.9.  If the Twins are looking for someone like Sandy Alcantara it would take Jeffers and Larnach.  I'd do that.  If the Twins are willing to go for someone like former Golden Gopher Max Meyer (28.1) Jeffers in a one-for-one swap pretty much does it.  If the Twins want to go BIG and ask for Meyer AND Sixto Sanchez (9.5) then a little something extra would need to be added with Jeffers.  The thing is, Jeffers is a solid defensive catcher with power (14 HR's in under 300 PA's) whose younger with more years of team control.  The Marlins catching situation is a disaster and one they will need to address this off season.  Is Jeffers really worth more than Garver ?  I don't think so either, but it depends what the Marlins think.  With Rortvedt about a year away, I see the Twins dealing Jeffers and picking up a Jason Castro type for a backup.  The Marlins have an embarrassment of riches with young pitching and a black hole at catcher.  Larnach is just the type of young hitter a team desperate for offense should take a chance on.  I'd hate to part with Larnach, been a fan ever since I saw him get clutch hit after clutch hit in leading Oregon state to an NCAA baseball title.  But his value is much higher than Kepler's, so Kepler is worth more to the Twins at his currently depressed value, making Larnach available.  Maybe Max figures out what he needs to do to hit better, maybe not, but the Twins can't trade guys like Kepler or Buxton when their current value is so low.
    I trade Jeffers to the Marlins in a package for young SP.
  21. Like
    DocBauer got a reaction from tony&rodney in Is Brent Rooker Better Than His Stats?    
    I'm taking a strange, opposite approach here.
    Rooker has always been declared as a solid athlete since drafted, and throughout his milb career, with a decent arm. This has been referenced to some degree in the OP. So why has that not translated? Has he just not worked hard enough at it? Or does he just not have good recognition skills? After watching such OF as Willingham and Young play the OF, I have the belief Rooker has room to improve defensively just through work and repitition.
    But his bat has to be his calling card, whether he is a DH or role player.
    He MIGHT be running out of time after a productive and exciting SSS in 2020. He sure didn't seem to take advantage in 2021 with the opportunities presented to him. But with a little 20/20 vision used, as well as some of the positives listed in the OP, he has clearly demonstrated in his milb career that each promotional level he has needed a little time to settle in, figure some things out, and then rake. Now, he hasn't exactly done the same thing at the ML level to be sure! And maybe he won't. But it's the hardest last step to make.
    I could see him being included in a package, especially to a team hurting for a semi-young power bat to add to their offense and willing to give him 400-500 AB. But I think he's talented enough I'd keep him on the 40 and continue working with him.
  22. Like
    DocBauer reacted to tony&rodney in Is Brent Rooker Better Than His Stats?    
    Rooker hits the ball hard and I'm hoping another team feels they would like him in their lineup. Rooker is pretty rough in the outfield and may be most valuable as a third or fourth piece in a trade for a pitcher. Still, Brent Rooker is a player that is worth a roster position and certainly should be on a 40 man list. He is still developing and gaining experience and his past indicates improvement over time.
  23. Like
    DocBauer reacted to stringer bell in 40-man roster decisions, part 1: position players   
    I think Refsnyder is a certain drop. He has no minor league options,  did not even hit at replacement level, he's no longer considered an infield option and he's 30. Yes, he hit for a couple weeks, but that appears to be an aberration. If the team can sign him to a minor league contract, he could try his luck in St. Paul again and see if the injuries pile up as they did this year. 
    I haven't mentioned Cave either. He's a capable outfielder, but his hit tool seems broken. To be a backup outfielder who would be penciled in for occasional starts on a corner, you have to be somewhat of a threat with the bat and Cave has hit worse than a backup catcher. 
  24. Like
    DocBauer reacted to stringer bell in 40-man roster decisions, part 1: position players   
    Larnach is listed twice in the list above. If we are adding Lewis, another certain add is Miranda, correct? I think Garlick is let go and the Twins will shop Rooker pretty hard. I could see the scenario for both Astudillo and Garlick where they are taken off the 40-man, but offered minor league deals with spring training invites. 
  25. Like
    DocBauer reacted to Vanimal46 in 40-man roster decisions, part 1: position players   
    Most of those players will likely remain with the team. The people most at risk of losing their 40 man spot:
    Simmons - obviously 
    Cave - He’s had a tough go of things in 2020 and 2021. It’s time to find someone better, or use his spot for another prospect. 
    Astudillo - His “positional flexibility” has been reduced to corner IF/OF spots. Rarely as a catcher anymore. I think Gordon’s performance in September gives him the edge as utility guy. 
    Maggi - Just an honorary nomination this year for being a long time minor leaguer. He shouldn’t be considered a short or long term player on the 40 man. 
    People that I wouldn’t be surprised if they were jettisoned from the roster or kept are Garlick, Refsnyder, and Rooker. They’re decent depth pieces. 
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