Mike Sixel

Edit to note: the tables are now fixed, I believe.
 
Fans, we are a demanding bunch! We want fixes now, and we want them cheap, so our favorite teams can do more fixing. I maybe spend too much time on Twins Daily, and I post a lot. That makes me wrong a lot……or maybe I’m just not all that good at this baseball thing, who knows. One of the main things being discussed right now is that the Twins should add some pitching, and I’ve been wondering just how realistic that is.
 
What does it cost to get pitching? What kind of pitchers are actually traded before the deadline? When are they traded?
 
Basically, in this series of blogs, I want to know what seems realistic in terms of trades, because I’d rather be informed when posting than not. Because baseball seems to have changed, I’ll be using data from 2013 on.
First up in the analysis? So, how soon can we realistically expect trades in MLB?
 
We’ll be looking at trades in June and July to see when players change hands, and the kinds of players that change teams. Given that the August deadline has gone away, we will be ignoring those trades, which admittedly may or may not change how one views the analysis…….
 
June 1-15
 
There isn’t much action in the first two weeks of June involving major league players.
 
[table]


Year
Number of Trades
MLB Pitchers
MLB HItters
Impact Trades


2013
2
1
1
0


2014
1
0
1
1*


2015
3
3
2
1


2016
2
0
3
1


2017
2
1
1
1


2018
1
0
1
1


2019
2
1
2
1


Total[td15][/td]

6
11
6
[/table]
 
The MLB hitter and pitcher columns show the number of major league players involved. Impact trades could be either the major league player was good the year of the deal and/or after the deal, or one or more the minor league players is/was. Good is subjective, but I’m going for more than 1 fWAR in any given year as the litmus test.
 
Not surprisingly, there just aren’t that many trades in the first half of June. Teams aren’t sure if they are in or out of the race, and those that are sure aren’t certain what they really need yet. More importantly, most articles and analyses on the internet indicate that teams wait until later to deal, in hopes of having more leverage (and getting a better deal). This aligns well with options theory, but we’ll have to do more analysis to see if waiting works or not.
 
*In 2014, Manny Pina was traded. He was not a major league player at the time, so he doesn’t appear in the table above. But, he was pretty good for Milwaukee in 2017 and 2018.
 
Mark Trumbo was part of a deal in 2015. He put up decent numbers after the trade, then a good season in the next year. Now? Not so much. But, he put up half a fWAR after the deal, and 2.2 in 2016. The other side of that deal? Welington Castillo went to Arizona. He was good that year, and in 2016 and 2017. Luckily for Twins fans, he’s not been as good in Chicago! Dominic Leone also went to AZ. He had one good year, but it wasn’t for them…..
 
Chris Coghlan was traded in 2016, back to the Cubs. He put up .9 fWAR after the deal, but was hitless in 9 post season at bats. He fell off a cliff after that year. The player traded for him played parts of two seasons, and has bounced around the minors.
 
2017 saw a name that might be in trade talks again in 2019 move in early June….Sam Dyson. He and cash were dealt for a player that is currently 26 and in AAA. Dyson has been good, but not great, though this year he has put up .5 fWAR in half a season. His traditional numbers are more impressive, probably, than his WAR would show…..Why was he so cheap? He was awful in Texas. Did his current team fix something, or is it the park/league?
 
Last year? One reason C. J. Cron was available this off season is that Tampa traded for Ji-Man Choi in early June of 2018. They got him for cash and Brad Miller. I bet Milwaukee would like to have that trade back…….
 
Edwin Encarcion was recently traded for a minor leaguer, but mostly because the Yankees absorbed a good chunk of EE’s salary. The Mariners are all in on the all-important financial flexibility thing right now….
 
I’m actually surprised that six years in a row there were some impactful major league players traded. Now, not one of those had been consistently good, but it does show that some good players move in early June. Not many of those were pitchers, btw.
 
 
June 16-30
 
[table]


Year
Number of Trades
MLB Pitchers
MLB HItters
Impact Trades


2013
5
0
5
3


2014
2
2
1
1


2015
3
1*
2
0


2016
3
1
2
1


2017
3
0
4
0


2018
2
0
2
1


2019
0
0
0
0


Total
18
[4
16
6
[/table]
 
In 2013, Colin McHugh was traded (not to the Astros) and he became quite good with the Astros. But, it was not an impactful deal for either team involved in the deal. He is an impactful player in the deal, so it counts. Eric Thames was also dealt that year, and put up a couple decent years after that. No one else in those five deals has done much, though Colin Cowgil managed to barely clear the 1 fWAR line in 2014…..so three impactful players were dealt that year!
 
2014 saw a rare pitcher for pitcher trade. One of them just cleared 1 fWAR the following year, but neither did anything much. Neither did the hitter traded that year. Really, calling 1 year of fWAR impactful seems like maybe too low a bar…….I’d call it almost useful for 1 year, but barely.
 
In 2015 AZ sent the injured *Bronson Arroyo and Touki Toussaint to Atlanta for a guy. Touki could be a real piece for Atlanta. This was clearly a salary dump situation, where Atlanta basically bought Toussaint for Arroyo’s contract. So far, though, he’s not produced even one half WAR, so maybe not.
 
Chris Paddack and Fernando Rodney were traded for each other (so maybe pitcher for pitcher trades aren't rare?) in 2016. This looks like a great trade for the Padres for sure. Rodney, of course, has been ok to effective after that but was terrible in Miami. I’m still trying to figure out what Miami was doing…..No other trade that year mattered, unless you still pine for Oswaldo Arcia….
 
There were no interesting trades in 2017 in the second half of June.
 
Steve Pearce was quite good last year for Boston. He was traded for an ok AA player. The other trade last year was not all that interesting.
 
This year? Well….there were zero trades in the second half of June.
 
So, the second half of June saw one really good player change hands, plus Steve Pearce who was quite good last year for Boston. Other than that, not many players/trades mattered all that much. It’s an odd coincidence that there were six trades that cleared the approximately 1 fWAR barrier in both parts of June, but it’s just a coincidence.
 
What did we learn?
 
That depends on what you already knew, I guess……But here’s a summary of what I learned!
 
Some good players have been traded in June. Most of those involved salary dumps, or odd decisions by poorly run teams (Miami, for example). There just are not many trades in June at all, and most of them amount to nothing much. It’s hard to criticize any team for not making deals before July, given this data. The best players were either picked up in salary dumps, or were near MLB ready minor league players (admittedly, those in the lower minors have not had a chance to do much yet. That said, in a quick glance, none look like big time prospects either).
 
In other words, I'm not surprised nothing has happened much this year, given what has happened in recent history.
 
In the next post, we’ll look at the first three weeks of July…..

Edit to note: the tables are now fixed, I believe.
 
Fans, we are a demanding bunch! We want fixes now, and we want them cheap, so our favorite teams can do more fixing. I maybe spend too much time on Twins Daily, and I post a lot. That makes me wrong a lot……or maybe I’m just not all that good at this baseball thing, who knows. One of the main things being discussed right now is that the Twins should add some pitching, and I’ve been wondering just how realistic that is.
 
What does it cost to get pitching? What kind of pitchers are actually traded before the deadline? When are they traded?
 
Basically, in this series of blogs, I want to know what seems realistic in terms of trades, because I’d rather be informed when posting than not. Because baseball seems to have changed, I’ll be using data from 2013 on.
First up in the analysis? So, how soon can we realistically expect trades in MLB?
 
We’ll be looking at trades in June and July to see when players change hands, and the kinds of players that change teams. Given that the August deadline has gone away, we will be ignoring those trades, which admittedly may or may not change how one views the analysis…….
 
June 1-15
 
There isn’t much action in the first two weeks of June involving major league players.
 
[table]


Year
Number of Trades
MLB Pitchers
MLB HItters
Impact Trades


2013
2
1
1
0


2014
1
0
1
1*


2015
3
3
2
1


2016
2
0
3
1


2017
2
1
1
1


2018
1
0
1
1


2019
2
1
2
1


Total[td15][/td]

6
11
6
[/table]
 
The MLB hitter and pitcher columns show the number of major league players involved. Impact trades could be either the major league player was good the year of the deal and/or after the deal, or one or more the minor league players is/was. Good is subjective, but I’m going for more than 1 fWAR in any given year as the litmus test.
 
Not surprisingly, there just aren’t that many trades in the first half of June. Teams aren’t sure if they are in or out of the race, and those that are sure aren’t certain what they really need yet. More importantly, most articles and analyses on the internet indicate that teams wait until later to deal, in hopes of having more leverage (and getting a better deal). This aligns well with options theory, but we’ll have to do more analysis to see if waiting works or not.
 
*In 2014, Manny Pina was traded. He was not a major league player at the time, so he doesn’t appear in the table above. But, he was pretty good for Milwaukee in 2017 and 2018.
 
Mark Trumbo was part of a deal in 2015. He put up decent numbers after the trade, then a good season in the next year. Now? Not so much. But, he put up half a fWAR after the deal, and 2.2 in 2016. The other side of that deal? Welington Castillo went to Arizona. He was good that year, and in 2016 and 2017. Luckily for Twins fans, he’s not been as good in Chicago! Dominic Leone also went to AZ. He had one good year, but it wasn’t for them…..
 
Chris Coghlan was traded in 2016, back to the Cubs. He put up .9 fWAR after the deal, but was hitless in 9 post season at bats. He fell off a cliff after that year. The player traded for him played parts of two seasons, and has bounced around the minors.
 
2017 saw a name that might be in trade talks again in 2019 move in early June….Sam Dyson. He and cash were dealt for a player that is currently 26 and in AAA. Dyson has been good, but not great, though this year he has put up .5 fWAR in half a season. His traditional numbers are more impressive, probably, than his WAR would show…..Why was he so cheap? He was awful in Texas. Did his current team fix something, or is it the park/league?
 
Last year? One reason C. J. Cron was available this off season is that Tampa traded for Ji-Man Choi in early June of 2018. They got him for cash and Brad Miller. I bet Milwaukee would like to have that trade back…….
 
Edwin Encarcion was recently traded for a minor leaguer, but mostly because the Yankees absorbed a good chunk of EE’s salary. The Mariners are all in on the all-important financial flexibility thing right now….
 
I’m actually surprised that six years in a row there were some impactful major league players traded. Now, not one of those had been consistently good, but it does show that some good players move in early June. Not many of those were pitchers, btw.
 
 
June 16-30
 
[table]


Year
Number of Trades
MLB Pitchers
MLB HItters
Impact Trades


2013
5
0
5
3


2014
2
2
1
1


2015
3
1*
2
0


2016
3
1
2
1


2017
3
0
4
0


2018
2
0
2
1


2019
0
0
0
0


Total
18
[4
16
6
[/table]
 
In 2013, Colin McHugh was traded (not to the Astros) and he became quite good with the Astros. But, it was not an impactful deal for either team involved in the deal. He is an impactful player in the deal, so it counts. Eric Thames was also dealt that year, and put up a couple decent years after that. No one else in those five deals has done much, though Colin Cowgil managed to barely clear the 1 fWAR line in 2014…..so three impactful players were dealt that year!
 
2014 saw a rare pitcher for pitcher trade. One of them just cleared 1 fWAR the following year, but neither did anything much. Neither did the hitter traded that year. Really, calling 1 year of fWAR impactful seems like maybe too low a bar…….I’d call it almost useful for 1 year, but barely.
 
In 2015 AZ sent the injured *Bronson Arroyo and Touki Toussaint to Atlanta for a guy. Touki could be a real piece for Atlanta. This was clearly a salary dump situation, where Atlanta basically bought Toussaint for Arroyo’s contract. So far, though, he’s not produced even one half WAR, so maybe not.
 
Chris Paddack and Fernando Rodney were traded for each other (so maybe pitcher for pitcher trades aren't rare?) in 2016. This looks like a great trade for the Padres for sure. Rodney, of course, has been ok to effective after that but was terrible in Miami. I’m still trying to figure out what Miami was doing…..No other trade that year mattered, unless you still pine for Oswaldo Arcia….
 
There were no interesting trades in 2017 in the second half of June.
 
Steve Pearce was quite good last year for Boston. He was traded for an ok AA player. The other trade last year was not all that interesting.
 
This year? Well….there were zero trades in the second half of June.
 
So, the second half of June saw one really good player change hands, plus Steve Pearce who was quite good last year for Boston. Other than that, not many players/trades mattered all that much. It’s an odd coincidence that there were six trades that cleared the approximately 1 fWAR barrier in both parts of June, but it’s just a coincidence.
 
What did we learn?
 
That depends on what you already knew, I guess……But here’s a summary of what I learned!
 
Some good players have been traded in June. Most of those involved salary dumps, or odd decisions by poorly run teams (Miami, for example). There just are not many trades in June at all, and most of them amount to nothing much. It’s hard to criticize any team for not making deals before July, given this data. The best players were either picked up in salary dumps, or were near MLB ready minor league players (admittedly, those in the lower minors have not had a chance to do much yet. That said, in a quick glance, none look like big time prospects either).
 
In other words, I'm not surprised nothing has happened much this year, given what has happened in recent history.
 
In the next post, we’ll look at the first three weeks of July…..

Edit to note: the tables are now fixed, I believe.
 
Fans, we are a demanding bunch! We want fixes now, and we want them cheap, so our favorite teams can do more fixing. I maybe spend too much time on Twins Daily, and I post a lot. That makes me wrong a lot……or maybe I’m just not all that good at this baseball thing, who knows. One of the main things being discussed right now is that the Twins should add some pitching, and I’ve been wondering just how realistic that is.
 
What does it cost to get pitching? What kind of pitchers are actually traded before the deadline? When are they traded?
 
Basically, in this series of blogs, I want to know what seems realistic in terms of trades, because I’d rather be informed when posting than not. Because baseball seems to have changed, I’ll be using data from 2013 on.
First up in the analysis? So, how soon can we realistically expect trades in MLB?
 
We’ll be looking at trades in June and July to see when players change hands, and the kinds of players that change teams. Given that the August deadline has gone away, we will be ignoring those trades, which admittedly may or may not change how one views the analysis…….
 
June 1-15
 
There isn’t much action in the first two weeks of June involving major league players.
 
[table]


Year
Number of Trades
MLB Pitchers
MLB HItters
Impact Trades


2013
2
1
1
0


2014
1
0
1
1*


2015
3
3
2
1


2016
2
0
3
1


2017
2
1
1
1


2018
1
0
1
1


2019
2
1
2
1


Total[td15][/td]

6
11
6
[/table]
 
The MLB hitter and pitcher columns show the number of major league players involved. Impact trades could be either the major league player was good the year of the deal and/or after the deal, or one or more the minor league players is/was. Good is subjective, but I’m going for more than 1 fWAR in any given year as the litmus test.
 
Not surprisingly, there just aren’t that many trades in the first half of June. Teams aren’t sure if they are in or out of the race, and those that are sure aren’t certain what they really need yet. More importantly, most articles and analyses on the internet indicate that teams wait until later to deal, in hopes of having more leverage (and getting a better deal). This aligns well with options theory, but we’ll have to do more analysis to see if waiting works or not.
 
*In 2014, Manny Pina was traded. He was not a major league player at the time, so he doesn’t appear in the table above. But, he was pretty good for Milwaukee in 2017 and 2018.
 
Mark Trumbo was part of a deal in 2015. He put up decent numbers after the trade, then a good season in the next year. Now? Not so much. But, he put up half a fWAR after the deal, and 2.2 in 2016. The other side of that deal? Welington Castillo went to Arizona. He was good that year, and in 2016 and 2017. Luckily for Twins fans, he’s not been as good in Chicago! Dominic Leone also went to AZ. He had one good year, but it wasn’t for them…..
 
Chris Coghlan was traded in 2016, back to the Cubs. He put up .9 fWAR after the deal, but was hitless in 9 post season at bats. He fell off a cliff after that year. The player traded for him played parts of two seasons, and has bounced around the minors.
 
2017 saw a name that might be in trade talks again in 2019 move in early June….Sam Dyson. He and cash were dealt for a player that is currently 26 and in AAA. Dyson has been good, but not great, though this year he has put up .5 fWAR in half a season. His traditional numbers are more impressive, probably, than his WAR would show…..Why was he so cheap? He was awful in Texas. Did his current team fix something, or is it the park/league?
 
Last year? One reason C. J. Cron was available this off season is that Tampa traded for Ji-Man Choi in early June of 2018. They got him for cash and Brad Miller. I bet Milwaukee would like to have that trade back…….
 
Edwin Encarcion was recently traded for a minor leaguer, but mostly because the Yankees absorbed a good chunk of EE’s salary. The Mariners are all in on the all-important financial flexibility thing right now….
 
I’m actually surprised that six years in a row there were some impactful major league players traded. Now, not one of those had been consistently good, but it does show that some good players move in early June. Not many of those were pitchers, btw.
 
 
June 16-30
 
[table]


Year
Number of Trades
MLB Pitchers
MLB HItters
Impact Trades


2013
5
0
5
3


2014
2
2
1
1


2015
3
1*
2
0


2016
3
1
2
1


2017
3
0
4
0


2018
2
0
2
1


2019
0
0
0
0


Total
18
[4
16
6
[/table]
 
In 2013, Colin McHugh was traded (not to the Astros) and he became quite good with the Astros. But, it was not an impactful deal for either team involved in the deal. He is an impactful player in the deal, so it counts. Eric Thames was also dealt that year, and put up a couple decent years after that. No one else in those five deals has done much, though Colin Cowgil managed to barely clear the 1 fWAR line in 2014…..so three impactful players were dealt that year!
 
2014 saw a rare pitcher for pitcher trade. One of them just cleared 1 fWAR the following year, but neither did anything much. Neither did the hitter traded that year. Really, calling 1 year of fWAR impactful seems like maybe too low a bar…….I’d call it almost useful for 1 year, but barely.
 
In 2015 AZ sent the injured *Bronson Arroyo and Touki Toussaint to Atlanta for a guy. Touki could be a real piece for Atlanta. This was clearly a salary dump situation, where Atlanta basically bought Toussaint for Arroyo’s contract. So far, though, he’s not produced even one half WAR, so maybe not.
 
Chris Paddack and Fernando Rodney were traded for each other (so maybe pitcher for pitcher trades aren't rare?) in 2016. This looks like a great trade for the Padres for sure. Rodney, of course, has been ok to effective after that but was terrible in Miami. I’m still trying to figure out what Miami was doing…..No other trade that year mattered, unless you still pine for Oswaldo Arcia….
 
There were no interesting trades in 2017 in the second half of June.
 
Steve Pearce was quite good last year for Boston. He was traded for an ok AA player. The other trade last year was not all that interesting.
 
This year? Well….there were zero trades in the second half of June.
 
So, the second half of June saw one really good player change hands, plus Steve Pearce who was quite good last year for Boston. Other than that, not many players/trades mattered all that much. It’s an odd coincidence that there were six trades that cleared the approximately 1 fWAR barrier in both parts of June, but it’s just a coincidence.
 
What did we learn?
 
That depends on what you already knew, I guess……But here’s a summary of what I learned!
 
Some good players have been traded in June. Most of those involved salary dumps, or odd decisions by poorly run teams (Miami, for example). There just are not many trades in June at all, and most of them amount to nothing much. It’s hard to criticize any team for not making deals before July, given this data. The best players were either picked up in salary dumps, or were near MLB ready minor league players (admittedly, those in the lower minors have not had a chance to do much yet. That said, in a quick glance, none look like big time prospects either).
 
In other words, I'm not surprised nothing has happened much this year, given what has happened in recent history.
 
In the next post, we’ll look at the first three weeks of July…..

Edit to note: the tables are now fixed, I believe.
 
Fans, we are a demanding bunch! We want fixes now, and we want them cheap, so our favorite teams can do more fixing. I maybe spend too much time on Twins Daily, and I post a lot. That makes me wrong a lot……or maybe I’m just not all that good at this baseball thing, who knows. One of the main things being discussed right now is that the Twins should add some pitching, and I’ve been wondering just how realistic that is.
 
What does it cost to get pitching? What kind of pitchers are actually traded before the deadline? When are they traded?
 
Basically, in this series of blogs, I want to know what seems realistic in terms of trades, because I’d rather be informed when posting than not. Because baseball seems to have changed, I’ll be using data from 2013 on.
First up in the analysis? So, how soon can we realistically expect trades in MLB?
 
We’ll be looking at trades in June and July to see when players change hands, and the kinds of players that change teams. Given that the August deadline has gone away, we will be ignoring those trades, which admittedly may or may not change how one views the analysis…….
 
June 1-15
 
There isn’t much action in the first two weeks of June involving major league players.
 
[table]


Year
Number of Trades
MLB Pitchers
MLB HItters
Impact Trades


2013
2
1
1
0


2014
1
0
1
1*


2015
3
3
2
1


2016
2
0
3
1


2017
2
1
1
1


2018
1
0
1
1


2019
2
1
2
1


Total[td15][/td]

6
11
6
[/table]
 
The MLB hitter and pitcher columns show the number of major league players involved. Impact trades could be either the major league player was good the year of the deal and/or after the deal, or one or more the minor league players is/was. Good is subjective, but I’m going for more than 1 fWAR in any given year as the litmus test.
 
Not surprisingly, there just aren’t that many trades in the first half of June. Teams aren’t sure if they are in or out of the race, and those that are sure aren’t certain what they really need yet. More importantly, most articles and analyses on the internet indicate that teams wait until later to deal, in hopes of having more leverage (and getting a better deal). This aligns well with options theory, but we’ll have to do more analysis to see if waiting works or not.
 
*In 2014, Manny Pina was traded. He was not a major league player at the time, so he doesn’t appear in the table above. But, he was pretty good for Milwaukee in 2017 and 2018.
 
Mark Trumbo was part of a deal in 2015. He put up decent numbers after the trade, then a good season in the next year. Now? Not so much. But, he put up half a fWAR after the deal, and 2.2 in 2016. The other side of that deal? Welington Castillo went to Arizona. He was good that year, and in 2016 and 2017. Luckily for Twins fans, he’s not been as good in Chicago! Dominic Leone also went to AZ. He had one good year, but it wasn’t for them…..
 
Chris Coghlan was traded in 2016, back to the Cubs. He put up .9 fWAR after the deal, but was hitless in 9 post season at bats. He fell off a cliff after that year. The player traded for him played parts of two seasons, and has bounced around the minors.
 
2017 saw a name that might be in trade talks again in 2019 move in early June….Sam Dyson. He and cash were dealt for a player that is currently 26 and in AAA. Dyson has been good, but not great, though this year he has put up .5 fWAR in half a season. His traditional numbers are more impressive, probably, than his WAR would show…..Why was he so cheap? He was awful in Texas. Did his current team fix something, or is it the park/league?
 
Last year? One reason C. J. Cron was available this off season is that Tampa traded for Ji-Man Choi in early June of 2018. They got him for cash and Brad Miller. I bet Milwaukee would like to have that trade back…….
 
Edwin Encarcion was recently traded for a minor leaguer, but mostly because the Yankees absorbed a good chunk of EE’s salary. The Mariners are all in on the all-important financial flexibility thing right now….
 
I’m actually surprised that six years in a row there were some impactful major league players traded. Now, not one of those had been consistently good, but it does show that some good players move in early June. Not many of those were pitchers, btw.
 
 
June 16-30
 
[table]


Year
Number of Trades
MLB Pitchers
MLB HItters
Impact Trades


2013
5
0
5
3


2014
2
2
1
1


2015
3
1*
2
0


2016
3
1
2
1


2017
3
0
4
0


2018
2
0
2
1


2019
0
0
0
0


Total
18
[4
16
6
[/table]
 
In 2013, Colin McHugh was traded (not to the Astros) and he became quite good with the Astros. But, it was not an impactful deal for either team involved in the deal. He is an impactful player in the deal, so it counts. Eric Thames was also dealt that year, and put up a couple decent years after that. No one else in those five deals has done much, though Colin Cowgil managed to barely clear the 1 fWAR line in 2014…..so three impactful players were dealt that year!
 
2014 saw a rare pitcher for pitcher trade. One of them just cleared 1 fWAR the following year, but neither did anything much. Neither did the hitter traded that year. Really, calling 1 year of fWAR impactful seems like maybe too low a bar…….I’d call it almost useful for 1 year, but barely.
 
In 2015 AZ sent the injured *Bronson Arroyo and Touki Toussaint to Atlanta for a guy. Touki could be a real piece for Atlanta. This was clearly a salary dump situation, where Atlanta basically bought Toussaint for Arroyo’s contract. So far, though, he’s not produced even one half WAR, so maybe not.
 
Chris Paddack and Fernando Rodney were traded for each other (so maybe pitcher for pitcher trades aren't rare?) in 2016. This looks like a great trade for the Padres for sure. Rodney, of course, has been ok to effective after that but was terrible in Miami. I’m still trying to figure out what Miami was doing…..No other trade that year mattered, unless you still pine for Oswaldo Arcia….
 
There were no interesting trades in 2017 in the second half of June.
 
Steve Pearce was quite good last year for Boston. He was traded for an ok AA player. The other trade last year was not all that interesting.
 
This year? Well….there were zero trades in the second half of June.
 
So, the second half of June saw one really good player change hands, plus Steve Pearce who was quite good last year for Boston. Other than that, not many players/trades mattered all that much. It’s an odd coincidence that there were six trades that cleared the approximately 1 fWAR barrier in both parts of June, but it’s just a coincidence.
 
What did we learn?
 
That depends on what you already knew, I guess……But here’s a summary of what I learned!
 
Some good players have been traded in June. Most of those involved salary dumps, or odd decisions by poorly run teams (Miami, for example). There just are not many trades in June at all, and most of them amount to nothing much. It’s hard to criticize any team for not making deals before July, given this data. The best players were either picked up in salary dumps, or were near MLB ready minor league players (admittedly, those in the lower minors have not had a chance to do much yet. That said, in a quick glance, none look like big time prospects either).
 
In other words, I'm not surprised nothing has happened much this year, given what has happened in recent history.
 
In the next post, we’ll look at the first three weeks of July…..

Edit to note: the tables are now fixed, I believe.
 
Fans, we are a demanding bunch! We want fixes now, and we want them cheap, so our favorite teams can do more fixing. I maybe spend too much time on Twins Daily, and I post a lot. That makes me wrong a lot……or maybe I’m just not all that good at this baseball thing, who knows. One of the main things being discussed right now is that the Twins should add some pitching, and I’ve been wondering just how realistic that is.
 
What does it cost to get pitching? What kind of pitchers are actually traded before the deadline? When are they traded?
 
Basically, in this series of blogs, I want to know what seems realistic in terms of trades, because I’d rather be informed when posting than not. Because baseball seems to have changed, I’ll be using data from 2013 on.
First up in the analysis? So, how soon can we realistically expect trades in MLB?
 
We’ll be looking at trades in June and July to see when players change hands, and the kinds of players that change teams. Given that the August deadline has gone away, we will be ignoring those trades, which admittedly may or may not change how one views the analysis…….
 
June 1-15
 
There isn’t much action in the first two weeks of June involving major league players.
 
[table]


Year
Number of Trades
MLB Pitchers
MLB HItters
Impact Trades


2013
2
1
1
0


2014
1
0
1
1*


2015
3
3
2
1


2016
2
0
3
1


2017
2
1
1
1


2018
1
0
1
1


2019
2
1
2
1


Total[td15][/td]

6
11
6
[/table]
 
The MLB hitter and pitcher columns show the number of major league players involved. Impact trades could be either the major league player was good the year of the deal and/or after the deal, or one or more the minor league players is/was. Good is subjective, but I’m going for more than 1 fWAR in any given year as the litmus test.
 
Not surprisingly, there just aren’t that many trades in the first half of June. Teams aren’t sure if they are in or out of the race, and those that are sure aren’t certain what they really need yet. More importantly, most articles and analyses on the internet indicate that teams wait until later to deal, in hopes of having more leverage (and getting a better deal). This aligns well with options theory, but we’ll have to do more analysis to see if waiting works or not.
 
*In 2014, Manny Pina was traded. He was not a major league player at the time, so he doesn’t appear in the table above. But, he was pretty good for Milwaukee in 2017 and 2018.
 
Mark Trumbo was part of a deal in 2015. He put up decent numbers after the trade, then a good season in the next year. Now? Not so much. But, he put up half a fWAR after the deal, and 2.2 in 2016. The other side of that deal? Welington Castillo went to Arizona. He was good that year, and in 2016 and 2017. Luckily for Twins fans, he’s not been as good in Chicago! Dominic Leone also went to AZ. He had one good year, but it wasn’t for them…..
 
Chris Coghlan was traded in 2016, back to the Cubs. He put up .9 fWAR after the deal, but was hitless in 9 post season at bats. He fell off a cliff after that year. The player traded for him played parts of two seasons, and has bounced around the minors.
 
2017 saw a name that might be in trade talks again in 2019 move in early June….Sam Dyson. He and cash were dealt for a player that is currently 26 and in AAA. Dyson has been good, but not great, though this year he has put up .5 fWAR in half a season. His traditional numbers are more impressive, probably, than his WAR would show…..Why was he so cheap? He was awful in Texas. Did his current team fix something, or is it the park/league?
 
Last year? One reason C. J. Cron was available this off season is that Tampa traded for Ji-Man Choi in early June of 2018. They got him for cash and Brad Miller. I bet Milwaukee would like to have that trade back…….
 
Edwin Encarcion was recently traded for a minor leaguer, but mostly because the Yankees absorbed a good chunk of EE’s salary. The Mariners are all in on the all-important financial flexibility thing right now….
 
I’m actually surprised that six years in a row there were some impactful major league players traded. Now, not one of those had been consistently good, but it does show that some good players move in early June. Not many of those were pitchers, btw.
 
 
June 16-30
 
[table]


Year
Number of Trades
MLB Pitchers
MLB HItters
Impact Trades


2013
5
0
5
3


2014
2
2
1
1


2015
3
1*
2
0


2016
3
1
2
1


2017
3
0
4
0


2018
2
0
2
1


2019
0
0
0
0


Total
18
[4
16
6
[/table]
 
In 2013, Colin McHugh was traded (not to the Astros) and he became quite good with the Astros. But, it was not an impactful deal for either team involved in the deal. He is an impactful player in the deal, so it counts. Eric Thames was also dealt that year, and put up a couple decent years after that. No one else in those five deals has done much, though Colin Cowgil managed to barely clear the 1 fWAR line in 2014…..so three impactful players were dealt that year!
 
2014 saw a rare pitcher for pitcher trade. One of them just cleared 1 fWAR the following year, but neither did anything much. Neither did the hitter traded that year. Really, calling 1 year of fWAR impactful seems like maybe too low a bar…….I’d call it almost useful for 1 year, but barely.
 
In 2015 AZ sent the injured *Bronson Arroyo and Touki Toussaint to Atlanta for a guy. Touki could be a real piece for Atlanta. This was clearly a salary dump situation, where Atlanta basically bought Toussaint for Arroyo’s contract. So far, though, he’s not produced even one half WAR, so maybe not.
 
Chris Paddack and Fernando Rodney were traded for each other (so maybe pitcher for pitcher trades aren't rare?) in 2016. This looks like a great trade for the Padres for sure. Rodney, of course, has been ok to effective after that but was terrible in Miami. I’m still trying to figure out what Miami was doing…..No other trade that year mattered, unless you still pine for Oswaldo Arcia….
 
There were no interesting trades in 2017 in the second half of June.
 
Steve Pearce was quite good last year for Boston. He was traded for an ok AA player. The other trade last year was not all that interesting.
 
This year? Well….there were zero trades in the second half of June.
 
So, the second half of June saw one really good player change hands, plus Steve Pearce who was quite good last year for Boston. Other than that, not many players/trades mattered all that much. It’s an odd coincidence that there were six trades that cleared the approximately 1 fWAR barrier in both parts of June, but it’s just a coincidence.
 
What did we learn?
 
That depends on what you already knew, I guess……But here’s a summary of what I learned!
 
Some good players have been traded in June. Most of those involved salary dumps, or odd decisions by poorly run teams (Miami, for example). There just are not many trades in June at all, and most of them amount to nothing much. It’s hard to criticize any team for not making deals before July, given this data. The best players were either picked up in salary dumps, or were near MLB ready minor league players (admittedly, those in the lower minors have not had a chance to do much yet. That said, in a quick glance, none look like big time prospects either).
 
In other words, I'm not surprised nothing has happened much this year, given what has happened in recent history.
 
In the next post, we’ll look at the first three weeks of July…..

Edit to note: the tables are now fixed, I believe.
 
Fans, we are a demanding bunch! We want fixes now, and we want them cheap, so our favorite teams can do more fixing. I maybe spend too much time on Twins Daily, and I post a lot. That makes me wrong a lot……or maybe I’m just not all that good at this baseball thing, who knows. One of the main things being discussed right now is that the Twins should add some pitching, and I’ve been wondering just how realistic that is.
 
What does it cost to get pitching? What kind of pitchers are actually traded before the deadline? When are they traded?
 
Basically, in this series of blogs, I want to know what seems realistic in terms of trades, because I’d rather be informed when posting than not. Because baseball seems to have changed, I’ll be using data from 2013 on.
First up in the analysis? So, how soon can we realistically expect trades in MLB?
 
We’ll be looking at trades in June and July to see when players change hands, and the kinds of players that change teams. Given that the August deadline has gone away, we will be ignoring those trades, which admittedly may or may not change how one views the analysis…….
 
June 1-15
 
There isn’t much action in the first two weeks of June involving major league players.
 
[table]


Year
Number of Trades
MLB Pitchers
MLB HItters
Impact Trades


2013
2
1
1
0


2014
1
0
1
1*


2015
3
3
2
1


2016
2
0
3
1


2017
2
1
1
1


2018
1
0
1
1


2019
2
1
2
1


Total[td15][/td]

6
11
6
[/table]
 
The MLB hitter and pitcher columns show the number of major league players involved. Impact trades could be either the major league player was good the year of the deal and/or after the deal, or one or more the minor league players is/was. Good is subjective, but I’m going for more than 1 fWAR in any given year as the litmus test.
 
Not surprisingly, there just aren’t that many trades in the first half of June. Teams aren’t sure if they are in or out of the race, and those that are sure aren’t certain what they really need yet. More importantly, most articles and analyses on the internet indicate that teams wait until later to deal, in hopes of having more leverage (and getting a better deal). This aligns well with options theory, but we’ll have to do more analysis to see if waiting works or not.
 
*In 2014, Manny Pina was traded. He was not a major league player at the time, so he doesn’t appear in the table above. But, he was pretty good for Milwaukee in 2017 and 2018.
 
Mark Trumbo was part of a deal in 2015. He put up decent numbers after the trade, then a good season in the next year. Now? Not so much. But, he put up half a fWAR after the deal, and 2.2 in 2016. The other side of that deal? Welington Castillo went to Arizona. He was good that year, and in 2016 and 2017. Luckily for Twins fans, he’s not been as good in Chicago! Dominic Leone also went to AZ. He had one good year, but it wasn’t for them…..
 
Chris Coghlan was traded in 2016, back to the Cubs. He put up .9 fWAR after the deal, but was hitless in 9 post season at bats. He fell off a cliff after that year. The player traded for him played parts of two seasons, and has bounced around the minors.
 
2017 saw a name that might be in trade talks again in 2019 move in early June….Sam Dyson. He and cash were dealt for a player that is currently 26 and in AAA. Dyson has been good, but not great, though this year he has put up .5 fWAR in half a season. His traditional numbers are more impressive, probably, than his WAR would show…..Why was he so cheap? He was awful in Texas. Did his current team fix something, or is it the park/league?
 
Last year? One reason C. J. Cron was available this off season is that Tampa traded for Ji-Man Choi in early June of 2018. They got him for cash and Brad Miller. I bet Milwaukee would like to have that trade back…….
 
Edwin Encarcion was recently traded for a minor leaguer, but mostly because the Yankees absorbed a good chunk of EE’s salary. The Mariners are all in on the all-important financial flexibility thing right now….
 
I’m actually surprised that six years in a row there were some impactful major league players traded. Now, not one of those had been consistently good, but it does show that some good players move in early June. Not many of those were pitchers, btw.
 
 
June 16-30
 
[table]


Year
Number of Trades
MLB Pitchers
MLB HItters
Impact Trades


2013
5
0
5
3


2014
2
2
1
1


2015
3
1*
2
0


2016
3
1
2
1


2017
3
0
4
0


2018
2
0
2
1


2019
0
0
0
0


Total
18
[4
16
6
[/table]
 
In 2013, Colin McHugh was traded (not to the Astros) and he became quite good with the Astros. But, it was not an impactful deal for either team involved in the deal. He is an impactful player in the deal, so it counts. Eric Thames was also dealt that year, and put up a couple decent years after that. No one else in those five deals has done much, though Colin Cowgil managed to barely clear the 1 fWAR line in 2014…..so three impactful players were dealt that year!
 
2014 saw a rare pitcher for pitcher trade. One of them just cleared 1 fWAR the following year, but neither did anything much. Neither did the hitter traded that year. Really, calling 1 year of fWAR impactful seems like maybe too low a bar…….I’d call it almost useful for 1 year, but barely.
 
In 2015 AZ sent the injured *Bronson Arroyo and Touki Toussaint to Atlanta for a guy. Touki could be a real piece for Atlanta. This was clearly a salary dump situation, where Atlanta basically bought Toussaint for Arroyo’s contract. So far, though, he’s not produced even one half WAR, so maybe not.
 
Chris Paddack and Fernando Rodney were traded for each other (so maybe pitcher for pitcher trades aren't rare?) in 2016. This looks like a great trade for the Padres for sure. Rodney, of course, has been ok to effective after that but was terrible in Miami. I’m still trying to figure out what Miami was doing…..No other trade that year mattered, unless you still pine for Oswaldo Arcia….
 
There were no interesting trades in 2017 in the second half of June.
 
Steve Pearce was quite good last year for Boston. He was traded for an ok AA player. The other trade last year was not all that interesting.
 
This year? Well….there were zero trades in the second half of June.
 
So, the second half of June saw one really good player change hands, plus Steve Pearce who was quite good last year for Boston. Other than that, not many players/trades mattered all that much. It’s an odd coincidence that there were six trades that cleared the approximately 1 fWAR barrier in both parts of June, but it’s just a coincidence.
 
What did we learn?
 
That depends on what you already knew, I guess……But here’s a summary of what I learned!
 
Some good players have been traded in June. Most of those involved salary dumps, or odd decisions by poorly run teams (Miami, for example). There just are not many trades in June at all, and most of them amount to nothing much. It’s hard to criticize any team for not making deals before July, given this data. The best players were either picked up in salary dumps, or were near MLB ready minor league players (admittedly, those in the lower minors have not had a chance to do much yet. That said, in a quick glance, none look like big time prospects either).
 
In other words, I'm not surprised nothing has happened much this year, given what has happened in recent history.
 
In the next post, we’ll look at the first three weeks of July…..

Edit to note: the tables are now fixed, I believe.
 
Fans, we are a demanding bunch! We want fixes now, and we want them cheap, so our favorite teams can do more fixing. I maybe spend too much time on Twins Daily, and I post a lot. That makes me wrong a lot……or maybe I’m just not all that good at this baseball thing, who knows. One of the main things being discussed right now is that the Twins should add some pitching, and I’ve been wondering just how realistic that is.
 
What does it cost to get pitching? What kind of pitchers are actually traded before the deadline? When are they traded?
 
Basically, in this series of blogs, I want to know what seems realistic in terms of trades, because I’d rather be informed when posting than not. Because baseball seems to have changed, I’ll be using data from 2013 on.
First up in the analysis? So, how soon can we realistically expect trades in MLB?
 
We’ll be looking at trades in June and July to see when players change hands, and the kinds of players that change teams. Given that the August deadline has gone away, we will be ignoring those trades, which admittedly may or may not change how one views the analysis…….
 
June 1-15
 
There isn’t much action in the first two weeks of June involving major league players.
 
[table]


Year
Number of Trades
MLB Pitchers
MLB HItters
Impact Trades


2013
2
1
1
0


2014
1
0
1
1*


2015
3
3
2
1


2016
2
0
3
1


2017
2
1
1
1


2018
1
0
1
1


2019
2
1
2
1


Total[td15][/td]

6
11
6
[/table]
 
The MLB hitter and pitcher columns show the number of major league players involved. Impact trades could be either the major league player was good the year of the deal and/or after the deal, or one or more the minor league players is/was. Good is subjective, but I’m going for more than 1 fWAR in any given year as the litmus test.
 
Not surprisingly, there just aren’t that many trades in the first half of June. Teams aren’t sure if they are in or out of the race, and those that are sure aren’t certain what they really need yet. More importantly, most articles and analyses on the internet indicate that teams wait until later to deal, in hopes of having more leverage (and getting a better deal). This aligns well with options theory, but we’ll have to do more analysis to see if waiting works or not.
 
*In 2014, Manny Pina was traded. He was not a major league player at the time, so he doesn’t appear in the table above. But, he was pretty good for Milwaukee in 2017 and 2018.
 
Mark Trumbo was part of a deal in 2015. He put up decent numbers after the trade, then a good season in the next year. Now? Not so much. But, he put up half a fWAR after the deal, and 2.2 in 2016. The other side of that deal? Welington Castillo went to Arizona. He was good that year, and in 2016 and 2017. Luckily for Twins fans, he’s not been as good in Chicago! Dominic Leone also went to AZ. He had one good year, but it wasn’t for them…..
 
Chris Coghlan was traded in 2016, back to the Cubs. He put up .9 fWAR after the deal, but was hitless in 9 post season at bats. He fell off a cliff after that year. The player traded for him played parts of two seasons, and has bounced around the minors.
 
2017 saw a name that might be in trade talks again in 2019 move in early June….Sam Dyson. He and cash were dealt for a player that is currently 26 and in AAA. Dyson has been good, but not great, though this year he has put up .5 fWAR in half a season. His traditional numbers are more impressive, probably, than his WAR would show…..Why was he so cheap? He was awful in Texas. Did his current team fix something, or is it the park/league?
 
Last year? One reason C. J. Cron was available this off season is that Tampa traded for Ji-Man Choi in early June of 2018. They got him for cash and Brad Miller. I bet Milwaukee would like to have that trade back…….
 
Edwin Encarcion was recently traded for a minor leaguer, but mostly because the Yankees absorbed a good chunk of EE’s salary. The Mariners are all in on the all-important financial flexibility thing right now….
 
I’m actually surprised that six years in a row there were some impactful major league players traded. Now, not one of those had been consistently good, but it does show that some good players move in early June. Not many of those were pitchers, btw.
 
 
June 16-30
 
[table]


Year
Number of Trades
MLB Pitchers
MLB HItters
Impact Trades


2013
5
0
5
3


2014
2
2
1
1


2015
3
1*
2
0


2016
3
1
2
1


2017
3
0
4
0


2018
2
0
2
1


2019
0
0
0
0


Total
18
[4
16
6
[/table]
 
In 2013, Colin McHugh was traded (not to the Astros) and he became quite good with the Astros. But, it was not an impactful deal for either team involved in the deal. He is an impactful player in the deal, so it counts. Eric Thames was also dealt that year, and put up a couple decent years after that. No one else in those five deals has done much, though Colin Cowgil managed to barely clear the 1 fWAR line in 2014…..so three impactful players were dealt that year!
 
2014 saw a rare pitcher for pitcher trade. One of them just cleared 1 fWAR the following year, but neither did anything much. Neither did the hitter traded that year. Really, calling 1 year of fWAR impactful seems like maybe too low a bar…….I’d call it almost useful for 1 year, but barely.
 
In 2015 AZ sent the injured *Bronson Arroyo and Touki Toussaint to Atlanta for a guy. Touki could be a real piece for Atlanta. This was clearly a salary dump situation, where Atlanta basically bought Toussaint for Arroyo’s contract. So far, though, he’s not produced even one half WAR, so maybe not.
 
Chris Paddack and Fernando Rodney were traded for each other (so maybe pitcher for pitcher trades aren't rare?) in 2016. This looks like a great trade for the Padres for sure. Rodney, of course, has been ok to effective after that but was terrible in Miami. I’m still trying to figure out what Miami was doing…..No other trade that year mattered, unless you still pine for Oswaldo Arcia….
 
There were no interesting trades in 2017 in the second half of June.
 
Steve Pearce was quite good last year for Boston. He was traded for an ok AA player. The other trade last year was not all that interesting.
 
This year? Well….there were zero trades in the second half of June.
 
So, the second half of June saw one really good player change hands, plus Steve Pearce who was quite good last year for Boston. Other than that, not many players/trades mattered all that much. It’s an odd coincidence that there were six trades that cleared the approximately 1 fWAR barrier in both parts of June, but it’s just a coincidence.
 
What did we learn?
 
That depends on what you already knew, I guess……But here’s a summary of what I learned!
 
Some good players have been traded in June. Most of those involved salary dumps, or odd decisions by poorly run teams (Miami, for example). There just are not many trades in June at all, and most of them amount to nothing much. It’s hard to criticize any team for not making deals before July, given this data. The best players were either picked up in salary dumps, or were near MLB ready minor league players (admittedly, those in the lower minors have not had a chance to do much yet. That said, in a quick glance, none look like big time prospects either).
 
In other words, I'm not surprised nothing has happened much this year, given what has happened in recent history.
 
In the next post, we’ll look at the first three weeks of July…..

Edit to note: the tables are now fixed, I believe.
 
Fans, we are a demanding bunch! We want fixes now, and we want them cheap, so our favorite teams can do more fixing. I maybe spend too much time on Twins Daily, and I post a lot. That makes me wrong a lot……or maybe I’m just not all that good at this baseball thing, who knows. One of the main things being discussed right now is that the Twins should add some pitching, and I’ve been wondering just how realistic that is.
 
What does it cost to get pitching? What kind of pitchers are actually traded before the deadline? When are they traded?
 
Basically, in this series of blogs, I want to know what seems realistic in terms of trades, because I’d rather be informed when posting than not. Because baseball seems to have changed, I’ll be using data from 2013 on.
First up in the analysis? So, how soon can we realistically expect trades in MLB?
 
We’ll be looking at trades in June and July to see when players change hands, and the kinds of players that change teams. Given that the August deadline has gone away, we will be ignoring those trades, which admittedly may or may not change how one views the analysis…….
 
June 1-15
 
There isn’t much action in the first two weeks of June involving major league players.
 
[table]


Year
Number of Trades
MLB Pitchers
MLB HItters
Impact Trades


2013
2
1
1
0


2014
1
0
1
1*


2015
3
3
2
1


2016
2
0
3
1


2017
2
1
1
1


2018
1
0
1
1


2019
2
1
2
1


Total[td15][/td]

6
11
6
[/table]
 
The MLB hitter and pitcher columns show the number of major league players involved. Impact trades could be either the major league player was good the year of the deal and/or after the deal, or one or more the minor league players is/was. Good is subjective, but I’m going for more than 1 fWAR in any given year as the litmus test.
 
Not surprisingly, there just aren’t that many trades in the first half of June. Teams aren’t sure if they are in or out of the race, and those that are sure aren’t certain what they really need yet. More importantly, most articles and analyses on the internet indicate that teams wait until later to deal, in hopes of having more leverage (and getting a better deal). This aligns well with options theory, but we’ll have to do more analysis to see if waiting works or not.
 
*In 2014, Manny Pina was traded. He was not a major league player at the time, so he doesn’t appear in the table above. But, he was pretty good for Milwaukee in 2017 and 2018.
 
Mark Trumbo was part of a deal in 2015. He put up decent numbers after the trade, then a good season in the next year. Now? Not so much. But, he put up half a fWAR after the deal, and 2.2 in 2016. The other side of that deal? Welington Castillo went to Arizona. He was good that year, and in 2016 and 2017. Luckily for Twins fans, he’s not been as good in Chicago! Dominic Leone also went to AZ. He had one good year, but it wasn’t for them…..
 
Chris Coghlan was traded in 2016, back to the Cubs. He put up .9 fWAR after the deal, but was hitless in 9 post season at bats. He fell off a cliff after that year. The player traded for him played parts of two seasons, and has bounced around the minors.
 
2017 saw a name that might be in trade talks again in 2019 move in early June….Sam Dyson. He and cash were dealt for a player that is currently 26 and in AAA. Dyson has been good, but not great, though this year he has put up .5 fWAR in half a season. His traditional numbers are more impressive, probably, than his WAR would show…..Why was he so cheap? He was awful in Texas. Did his current team fix something, or is it the park/league?
 
Last year? One reason C. J. Cron was available this off season is that Tampa traded for Ji-Man Choi in early June of 2018. They got him for cash and Brad Miller. I bet Milwaukee would like to have that trade back…….
 
Edwin Encarcion was recently traded for a minor leaguer, but mostly because the Yankees absorbed a good chunk of EE’s salary. The Mariners are all in on the all-important financial flexibility thing right now….
 
I’m actually surprised that six years in a row there were some impactful major league players traded. Now, not one of those had been consistently good, but it does show that some good players move in early June. Not many of those were pitchers, btw.
 
 
June 16-30
 
[table]


Year
Number of Trades
MLB Pitchers
MLB HItters
Impact Trades


2013
5
0
5
3


2014
2
2
1
1


2015
3
1*
2
0


2016
3
1
2
1


2017
3
0
4
0


2018
2
0
2
1


2019
0
0
0
0


Total
18
[4
16
6
[/table]
 
In 2013, Colin McHugh was traded (not to the Astros) and he became quite good with the Astros. But, it was not an impactful deal for either team involved in the deal. He is an impactful player in the deal, so it counts. Eric Thames was also dealt that year, and put up a couple decent years after that. No one else in those five deals has done much, though Colin Cowgil managed to barely clear the 1 fWAR line in 2014…..so three impactful players were dealt that year!
 
2014 saw a rare pitcher for pitcher trade. One of them just cleared 1 fWAR the following year, but neither did anything much. Neither did the hitter traded that year. Really, calling 1 year of fWAR impactful seems like maybe too low a bar…….I’d call it almost useful for 1 year, but barely.
 
In 2015 AZ sent the injured *Bronson Arroyo and Touki Toussaint to Atlanta for a guy. Touki could be a real piece for Atlanta. This was clearly a salary dump situation, where Atlanta basically bought Toussaint for Arroyo’s contract. So far, though, he’s not produced even one half WAR, so maybe not.
 
Chris Paddack and Fernando Rodney were traded for each other (so maybe pitcher for pitcher trades aren't rare?) in 2016. This looks like a great trade for the Padres for sure. Rodney, of course, has been ok to effective after that but was terrible in Miami. I’m still trying to figure out what Miami was doing…..No other trade that year mattered, unless you still pine for Oswaldo Arcia….
 
There were no interesting trades in 2017 in the second half of June.
 
Steve Pearce was quite good last year for Boston. He was traded for an ok AA player. The other trade last year was not all that interesting.
 
This year? Well….there were zero trades in the second half of June.
 
So, the second half of June saw one really good player change hands, plus Steve Pearce who was quite good last year for Boston. Other than that, not many players/trades mattered all that much. It’s an odd coincidence that there were six trades that cleared the approximately 1 fWAR barrier in both parts of June, but it’s just a coincidence.
 
What did we learn?
 
That depends on what you already knew, I guess……But here’s a summary of what I learned!
 
Some good players have been traded in June. Most of those involved salary dumps, or odd decisions by poorly run teams (Miami, for example). There just are not many trades in June at all, and most of them amount to nothing much. It’s hard to criticize any team for not making deals before July, given this data. The best players were either picked up in salary dumps, or were near MLB ready minor league players (admittedly, those in the lower minors have not had a chance to do much yet. That said, in a quick glance, none look like big time prospects either).
 
In other words, I'm not surprised nothing has happened much this year, given what has happened in recent history.
 
In the next post, we’ll look at the first three weeks of July…..

Edit to note: the tables are now fixed, I believe.
 
Fans, we are a demanding bunch! We want fixes now, and we want them cheap, so our favorite teams can do more fixing. I maybe spend too much time on Twins Daily, and I post a lot. That makes me wrong a lot……or maybe I’m just not all that good at this baseball thing, who knows. One of the main things being discussed right now is that the Twins should add some pitching, and I’ve been wondering just how realistic that is.
 
What does it cost to get pitching? What kind of pitchers are actually traded before the deadline? When are they traded?
 
Basically, in this series of blogs, I want to know what seems realistic in terms of trades, because I’d rather be informed when posting than not. Because baseball seems to have changed, I’ll be using data from 2013 on.
First up in the analysis? So, how soon can we realistically expect trades in MLB?
 
We’ll be looking at trades in June and July to see when players change hands, and the kinds of players that change teams. Given that the August deadline has gone away, we will be ignoring those trades, which admittedly may or may not change how one views the analysis…….
 
June 1-15
 
There isn’t much action in the first two weeks of June involving major league players.
 
[table]


Year
Number of Trades
MLB Pitchers
MLB HItters
Impact Trades


2013
2
1
1
0


2014
1
0
1
1*


2015
3
3
2
1


2016
2
0
3
1


2017
2
1
1
1


2018
1
0
1
1


2019
2
1
2
1


Total[td15][/td]

6
11
6
[/table]
 
The MLB hitter and pitcher columns show the number of major league players involved. Impact trades could be either the major league player was good the year of the deal and/or after the deal, or one or more the minor league players is/was. Good is subjective, but I’m going for more than 1 fWAR in any given year as the litmus test.
 
Not surprisingly, there just aren’t that many trades in the first half of June. Teams aren’t sure if they are in or out of the race, and those that are sure aren’t certain what they really need yet. More importantly, most articles and analyses on the internet indicate that teams wait until later to deal, in hopes of having more leverage (and getting a better deal). This aligns well with options theory, but we’ll have to do more analysis to see if waiting works or not.
 
*In 2014, Manny Pina was traded. He was not a major league player at the time, so he doesn’t appear in the table above. But, he was pretty good for Milwaukee in 2017 and 2018.
 
Mark Trumbo was part of a deal in 2015. He put up decent numbers after the trade, then a good season in the next year. Now? Not so much. But, he put up half a fWAR after the deal, and 2.2 in 2016. The other side of that deal? Welington Castillo went to Arizona. He was good that year, and in 2016 and 2017. Luckily for Twins fans, he’s not been as good in Chicago! Dominic Leone also went to AZ. He had one good year, but it wasn’t for them…..
 
Chris Coghlan was traded in 2016, back to the Cubs. He put up .9 fWAR after the deal, but was hitless in 9 post season at bats. He fell off a cliff after that year. The player traded for him played parts of two seasons, and has bounced around the minors.
 
2017 saw a name that might be in trade talks again in 2019 move in early June….Sam Dyson. He and cash were dealt for a player that is currently 26 and in AAA. Dyson has been good, but not great, though this year he has put up .5 fWAR in half a season. His traditional numbers are more impressive, probably, than his WAR would show…..Why was he so cheap? He was awful in Texas. Did his current team fix something, or is it the park/league?
 
Last year? One reason C. J. Cron was available this off season is that Tampa traded for Ji-Man Choi in early June of 2018. They got him for cash and Brad Miller. I bet Milwaukee would like to have that trade back…….
 
Edwin Encarcion was recently traded for a minor leaguer, but mostly because the Yankees absorbed a good chunk of EE’s salary. The Mariners are all in on the all-important financial flexibility thing right now….
 
I’m actually surprised that six years in a row there were some impactful major league players traded. Now, not one of those had been consistently good, but it does show that some good players move in early June. Not many of those were pitchers, btw.
 
 
June 16-30
 
[table]


Year
Number of Trades
MLB Pitchers
MLB HItters
Impact Trades


2013
5
0
5
3


2014
2
2
1
1


2015
3
1*
2
0


2016
3
1
2
1


2017
3
0
4
0


2018
2
0
2
1


2019
0
0
0
0


Total
18
[4
16
6
[/table]
 
In 2013, Colin McHugh was traded (not to the Astros) and he became quite good with the Astros. But, it was not an impactful deal for either team involved in the deal. He is an impactful player in the deal, so it counts. Eric Thames was also dealt that year, and put up a couple decent years after that. No one else in those five deals has done much, though Colin Cowgil managed to barely clear the 1 fWAR line in 2014…..so three impactful players were dealt that year!
 
2014 saw a rare pitcher for pitcher trade. One of them just cleared 1 fWAR the following year, but neither did anything much. Neither did the hitter traded that year. Really, calling 1 year of fWAR impactful seems like maybe too low a bar…….I’d call it almost useful for 1 year, but barely.
 
In 2015 AZ sent the injured *Bronson Arroyo and Touki Toussaint to Atlanta for a guy. Touki could be a real piece for Atlanta. This was clearly a salary dump situation, where Atlanta basically bought Toussaint for Arroyo’s contract. So far, though, he’s not produced even one half WAR, so maybe not.
 
Chris Paddack and Fernando Rodney were traded for each other (so maybe pitcher for pitcher trades aren't rare?) in 2016. This looks like a great trade for the Padres for sure. Rodney, of course, has been ok to effective after that but was terrible in Miami. I’m still trying to figure out what Miami was doing…..No other trade that year mattered, unless you still pine for Oswaldo Arcia….
 
There were no interesting trades in 2017 in the second half of June.
 
Steve Pearce was quite good last year for Boston. He was traded for an ok AA player. The other trade last year was not all that interesting.
 
This year? Well….there were zero trades in the second half of June.
 
So, the second half of June saw one really good player change hands, plus Steve Pearce who was quite good last year for Boston. Other than that, not many players/trades mattered all that much. It’s an odd coincidence that there were six trades that cleared the approximately 1 fWAR barrier in both parts of June, but it’s just a coincidence.
 
What did we learn?
 
That depends on what you already knew, I guess……But here’s a summary of what I learned!
 
Some good players have been traded in June. Most of those involved salary dumps, or odd decisions by poorly run teams (Miami, for example). There just are not many trades in June at all, and most of them amount to nothing much. It’s hard to criticize any team for not making deals before July, given this data. The best players were either picked up in salary dumps, or were near MLB ready minor league players (admittedly, those in the lower minors have not had a chance to do much yet. That said, in a quick glance, none look like big time prospects either).
 
In other words, I'm not surprised nothing has happened much this year, given what has happened in recent history.
 
In the next post, we’ll look at the first three weeks of July…..

Brusdar Graterol Shoulder Impingement Q&A
Heezy1323
 
 
Heralded Twins prospect Brusdar Graterol was recently shut down and placed on the IL for ‘shoulder impingement’. This is concerning given how promising a start to the 2019 season Graterol has had and what it could mean for his future.
 
So what is ‘shoulder impingement’? And when might it need surgery? Let’s see what we can figure out:
 
[Disclaimer: I am not a team physician for the Twins. I have not treated or examined any Twins players. The information I am using is only that which is publicly available. My goal with these posts is to provide some education to TD readers around general injuries that are peculiar to baseball players.]
 
 
Question 1: What is shoulder impingement?
Shoulder impingement is a sort of catch-all term that can be used to mean a number of different things depending on the specifics of the situation. It Is a term that is often used in application to patients who have pain in their shoulders, often without any specific structural damage or a particular injury. Most frequently, people have pain in their shoulder area that gets worse when working above chest level. It is often treated with physical therapy, activity modification, oral medication and occasional cortisone injections. It is uncommon for these patients to require surgery, but it is sometimes needed after the preceding treatments have failed to provide adequate relief. Some also refer to this condition as shoulder bursitis. It involves irritation of the rotator cuff and the bursa, which lies between the rotator cuff tendons and a part of the bone of the shoulder blade (called the acromion). You may have friends or family members who have been told they have ‘impingement’- this is a fairly commonly used diagnosis. More specifically, this condition is referred to as ‘external impingement’.
 


 
Shoulder impingement in pitchers, however, often means something entirely different than what is described above. Whereas external impingement occurs between the rotator cuff and the acromion (outside of the ball and socket joint of the shoulder), pitchers more commonly have problems with what is called ‘internal impingement’. This occurs specifically in overhead athletes because of the tremendous motion that is necessary to hurl a baseball 90+ mph accurately. During the course of throwing, the arm is cocked back, placing it in an awkward position. In this position, part of the rotator cuff can get pinched between the bone of the ball and the bone of the socket (also often including pinching of the labrum). This may not seem like a big deal, but over time this repetitive motion can begin to take its toll. Experts agree that some changes/damage to the structures of the shoulder are likely normal and adaptive in pitchers rather than problematic. In some cases, however, these structural changes progress down the spectrum and become an issue- causing pain, lack of velocity and/or control and fatigue of the shoulder.
 


 
There is not perfect agreement amongst experts about why exactly these athletes begin to have pain in some cases. Regardless, it is likely a very complex combination of factors ranging from subtle changes in mechanics to core strength to gradual loosening of shoulder ligaments over time (and many others). Each individual case is likely different, and treatment needs to be tailored to the specifics of the athlete.
 
 
Question 2: How/when did this injury occur?
Typically, this is not an injury that results from a single trauma (though theoretically it can happen that way). It is much more typical for this to be the result of an accumulation of ‘microtraumas’ over a long period of time.
 
Question 3: Does this injury always need surgery?
No. As mentioned above, painful shoulder impingement in throwers is likely related to a complex set of factors. Because of this, treating any ONE thing with a surgery is somewhat unlikely to be effective. As a result, treatment is almost always begun by trying to calm down inflamed tissues. This typically involves rest from throwing. It may also involve oral medications and in some instances, cortisone injections. There is some discussion around PRP and so-called ‘stem cell’ injections (what orthopedists refer to as Bone Marrow Aspirate Concentrate or BMAC) for these types of problems, though this is not yet something I would consider standard of care.
During this time, the athlete is also likely to undergo physical therapy to work on improving some of the other factors mentioned above- core strength, range of motion, rotator cuff strength, etc.
As the pain and inflammation improve, the athlete is likely re-examined by trainers and physicians. This can take anywhere from a week or two to several weeks depending on the case. When things have improved sufficiently, the athlete is likely to begin an interval throwing program, which involves progressively more aggressive throwing sessions. Once they have completed this, they would likely return to the mound and begin throwing from there. Once appropriate progress has been made (and of course presuming no setbacks are encountered), they are likely cleared to return to play.
The success of non-surgical treatment for these types of problems is all over the map in the literature. There are ranges from percents in the teens to 70%+. Again, it likely depends on a large number of factors which makes prognosticating nearly impossible.
 
 
Question 4: How do we tell which cases of impingement need surgery and which do not?
This can be among the most difficult decisions to make when dealing with pitchers. One of the problematic elements is that surgery to treat this problem is comparatively not very successful. As noted above, in general there are likely a number of different structural abnormalities in the shoulder that are in play with this injury. Some of them are adaptive and are considered ‘normally abnormal’ for pitchers. Others are problematic. Separating these two is something about which even experts readily disagree.
It is difficult (and perhaps foolish in this setting) to quote surgery success rates, but in general they are not the best. There is a reason behind the old saying that for pitchers “If it’s the elbow, call the surgeon. If it’s the shoulder, call the preacher.”
 
 
Question 5: What is done during surgery?
This is widely variable depending on the specific structures that are injured, and (quite honestly) the particular views of the operating surgeon. I was recently watching a lecture on just this subject that featured a panel of a number of the preeminent North American surgeons that treat these problems. The differences of opinion and differences in strategy between surgeons were substantial. Yet another reason to make significant efforts to make non-surgical treatment successful.
 
 
Question 6: How concerning is this for Graterol?
This is hard to know from the information available. As stated earlier, the term ‘impingement’ can mean a wide variety of things- some more concerning than others. One of the positives in this case would seem to be that Graterol was pitching very effectively quite recently. Thus, this doesn’t seem to be something that has been festering for months. Hopefully that means they’ve ‘caught it early’ and can get things back on track sooner than later. I would imagine he will be out for a few weeks at least, but I would be surprised if he required any surgery in the near future.
Overall, many pitchers have occasional blips on the radar with things like this that are improved with rest and rehab and don’t recur in the future. Predicting the future is difficult for anything- and this type of issue especially- but hopefully Graterol can get back on the mound throwing gas soon.
 
 
Go Twins!

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
---------
 
You can find the introductory segment in this series, including my criteria for eligibility to be a prospect and the list of the 2016 top 40 players who graduated as prospects or are not in the system, here. Here is my 2016 Twins off-season top 40 prospects list (summary of 1-40) for reference.
This is the countdown for players ranked 51-55th in the system. You can find players 56-60 here, players 51-55 here, 46-50 here, 41-45 here, 36-40 here, 31-35 here, and all segments in the series here.
 
30. Lewis Thorpe (17)
DOB: 11/23/1995; Age: 21
Positions: LHP
Bats: R, Throws: L
Height: 6'1", Weight: 160 lbs
Acquired: International Free Agent
Professional Experience: 2; Highest level: A (2015,2016)
ETA: 2019
 
Thorpe was signed on July 12th of 2012 by the Twins to the largest bonus ever given for an Australian player, $500,000. The Melbourne native He has not pitched since September of 2014 resting and rehabilitating his left UCL, which eventually required Tommy John surgery that cost him all of 2015. He lost all of 2016 with mononucleosis.
 
Thorpe has 4 pitches, including a plus mid 90s fastball, a plus change up and curveball and an improving slider/cutter. His 2014 season in Cedar Rapids, even before the injury was somewhat of a disappointment compared to his 2013 season in Elizabethton (12 G, 8 GS, 44 IP, 64 K, 13.1 K/9, 38.1 K%, 6 BB, 1.2 BB/9, 34.5 K-BB%, 2.05 ERA, 1.43 FIP, 0.86 WHIP, .319 BABIP), showing considerable control issues (a career high 4.5 BB/9) and was fairly ineffective (4.24 FIP). He was a lefty strikeout pitcher, which means that there is a lot of potential, but losing two seasons has certainly set him back. There are several questions about Thorpe, in addition to the obvious that is how his elbow procedure will impact his stuff: his durability in a game and during the season has been a bit of a concern. A huge question mark right now, thus the drop from 11th in 2015 to 30th now.
 
Likely 2017 path: In the Cedar Rapids rotation, with an outside chance to make the Fort Myers rotation, depending on the elbow and performance
 
29. Lachlan Wells (26)
DOB: 2/27/1997; Age: 19
Positions: LHP
Bats: L, Throws: L
Height: 5'8", Weight: 165 lbs
Acquired: International Free Agent
Professional Experience: 2; Highest level: A (2015,2016)
ETA: 2019
 
The Twins signed Lachlan Wells as an international free agent from Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia on November 21, 2014 for $400,000. The diminutive Australian made his debut in the Gulf Coast League in 2015. He played in 10 games (9 GS) and pitched 47.3 innings, walking 11 (2.1 BB/9, 20.5 K-BB%) and striking out 49 (9.3 K/9, 26.5% K%) for a 2.09 ERA (3.22 FIP) and 0.97 WHIP (.263 BABIP). Last season he bypassed Elizabethton to play for Cedar Rapids in late June after Extented Spring Training. For the Kernals he made 12 starts for 71-1/3 IP, walking 16 (2.0 BB/9, 16.7 K-BB%) and striking out 63 (8.0 K/9, 16.7% K%) for a 1.77 ERA (3.28 FIP) and 1.02 WHIP (.272 BABIP). Other than the drop in strikeouts, his results have been very similar to his 2015, two levels of competition higher where he was about 3 years younger than the average player, which is encouraging.
 
Size is a concern with 5'8" Wells. He is just 19, but has not grown any more the past 3 seasons. He throws an above average 90-93 mph fastball, a work in progress but solid average curveball and a changeup that is close to plus and is his out pitch. His mechanics and complex delivery is a concern regarding durability. So far his spits against lefties and righties are about similar with only one big difference: He produces much more ground balls against lefties that he does against righties. It could be the more frequent use of the changeup, but it is an interesting data point. The Twins have kept Wells as a starter thus far, but the bullpen might be a more realistic place for him in the future
 
Likely 2017 path: In the Fort Myers rotation
 
28. D.J. Baxendale (--)
DOB: 12/8/1990; Age: 26
Positions: RHP
Bats: R, Throws: R
Height: 6'2", Weight: 190 lbs
Acquired: Drafted in the 10th round in 2012
Professional Experience: 5; Highest level: AAA (2016)
ETA: 2017
 
D.J. Baxendale was drafted by the Twins in the 10th round of the 2012 draft from the University of Arkansas as a Junior. The Jacksonville, AR native was the Razorbacks' most dependable starter in his senior year starting 20 games, pitching 107 innings, striking out 96 (8.1 K/9) walking 29 (2.4 BB/9) for a 3.11 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. He led his team in starts, wins and strikeouts. He continued 2012 as a pro in the pen dominating the Rookie Appalachian League in Elizabethton (6 G, 7-2/3 IP, 16 K, 18.8 K/9, 64.0 K%, 1 BB, 1.1 BB/9, 60 K-BB%, 0.00 ERA, -0.06 FIP, 0.26 WHIP, .125 BABIP) and A Midwest League in Beloit (11 G, 11 IP, 16 K, 12.3 K/9, 33.3 K%, 1 BB, 0.8 BB/9, 31.1 K-BB%, 1.64 ERA, 0.90 FIP, 1.18 WHIP, .414 BABIP,) albeit in relative small samples. The Twins have seen enough of him, including this incredible Spring Training performance that I was lucky to witness and decribe, that they placed him in the A+ Florida State League Fort Myers Miracle rotation, where he pitched like an Ace: (9 GS, 57-1/3 IP, 48 K, 7.5 K/9, 22.4 K%, 11 BB, 2.1 BB/9, 17.3 K-BB%, 1.10 ERA, 0.78 FIP, 0.26 WHIP, .212 BABIP, 7-0 record,) moving to AA New Britain in late May when he suffered an arm injury in his first game pitched and eventually landed on the DL mid-June until the All-Star break. His numbers in New Britain left a lot to be desired (16 GS, 92-2/3 IP, 64 K, 6.2 K/9, 15.7 K%, 22 BB, 2.1 BB/9, 10.3 K-BB%, 5.63 ERA, 4.54 FIP, 1.42 WHIP, .317 BABIP, 5-7 record.) Both his ERA and FIP were bloated because of the 13 HRs he allowed, a sign that he was leaving his Fastball high in the zone, potentially due to his arm issues. Still, in 2013 Baxendale lead the Twins organization in wins and was one of very few Twins prospects to ever make it to AA in their second professional season. 2014 was an even more frustrating season for Baxendale, starting again at AA New Britain where he was placed in the DL in April, was back to Fort Myers in June, making a rehab start for the GCL Twins in August and pitching a few more games for the Miracle in late August. That was a season totally lost in injuries. He pitched a total 90-1/3 innings that season hurt most of the time, and would have been better served rehabilitating his injuries instead of aggravating them. In 2015 the Twins moved their AA team to the Southern League Chattanooga, and Baxendale got the opportunity to pitch closer to home and had a better season (23 G, 21 GS, 118-1/3 IP, 92 K, 7.0 K/9, 17.9 K%, 40 BB, 3.0 BB/9, 10.1 K-BB%, 3.80 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 1.40 WHIP, .317 BABIP) but most importantly a healthy season. Last season he was caught in the numbers and started the season for the 4th year in a row in the AA rotation with results improved from 2015 (14 GS, 81 IP, 59 K, 6.5 K/9, 17.7 K%, 16 BB, 1.8 BB/9, 12.9 K-BB%, 3.44 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 1.21 WHIP, .308 BABIP) but not dramatically. At this point at his age 25 Baxendale looked like organizational depth pitcher, until he moved to the AAA Rochester pen last June, where he excelled. He appeared in 23 games, pitching 35 innings, striking out 40 K (10.3 K/9, 28.4 K%,) and walking 8 (2.1 BB/9, 22.7 K-BB%), finishing with 1.29 ERA, 2.03 FIP, and 1.03 WHIP (.297 BABIP) picking up where he left Fort Myers in 2013. But one cannot ignore 2014 and 2015
 
Baxendale has a 91-92 fastball with great sinking action, which jumps up to 93-94 from the pen. He has a plus slow (low 70s) curve and as a starter has been throwing an above average mid 80s slider/cutter and an average changeup. His command and control is excellent, especially when healthy. If his fastball is down the zone, it is pretty much unhittable. Supplementing it with a plus curveball as an out pitch makes Baxendale a potentially very effective reliever. He is equally effective against both lefties and righties, inducing massive strikeouts to lefties (he struck out 20 of the 58 lefties he faced in Rochester for 38.5 K%), and decent strikeouts (22.5 K%) and ground outs 1.7 GO/AO to righties. A comparable pitcher is current Twins' reliever Brandon Kintzler, but Baxendale will produce more strikeouts and be better against lefties. Health is a consideration here, and Baxendale has to prove that his second half in 2016 was not a mirage.
 
Likely 2017 path: In the Rochester pen and depending on performance in Minnesota by mid-season
 
27. Trevor Hildenberger (--)
DOB: 12/15/1990; Age: 26
Positions: RHP
Bats: R, Throws: R
Height: 6'2", Weight: 211 lbs
Acquired: Drafted in the 22nd round in 2014
Professional Experience: 3; Highest level: AA (2016)
ETA: 2018
 
Trevor Hildenberger was drafted by the Twins in the 22nd round of the 2014 draft from the University of California Berkeley as a Senior. The San Fransisco area native was Twins' Michael Theofanopoulos roommate and the Golden Bears' closer. In his senior year he appeared in 28 games (47-2/3 IP) striking out 48 (9.1 K/9,) walking 11 (2.1 BB/9) and finishing with 2.83 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 10 saves. He continued his season and started his pro career at the GCL where he was the Twins' closer pitching in 23 games (28 IP), allowing 30 K (9.6, 25.2 K%) and 5 BB (1.6, 21 K-BB%) finishing with 2.57 ERA, 2.40 FIP, and 1.14 WHIP (.317 BABIP), and another 10 saves. He also pitched a single inning that season in Elizabethton striking out 2 hitters and allowing neither hits nor walks. Hildenberger moved to A class Cedar Rapids in the beginning of next season, putting career-best numbers (28 G, 45 IP, 59 K, 11.8 K/9, 35.5 K%, 5 BB, 1.0 BB/9, 32.5 K-BB%, 0.80 ERA, 1.17 FIP, 0.64 WHIP, .238 BABIP, 10 SV). He moved up to A+ Fort Myers on late July pitching also successfully (13 G, 19 IP, 21 K, 10.0 K/9, 29.2 K%, 2 BB, 1.0 BB/9, 26.4 K-BB%, 3.32 ERA, 1.43 FIP, 0.89 WHIP, .313 BABIP, 3 SV). He earned a selection in the Arizona Fall League where he appeared for 8 games. Last season he stayed in Fort Myers for the beginning continuing his success (6 G, 9-1/3 IP, 8 K, 7.7 K/9, 20.5 K%, 0 BB, 0.0 BB/9, 20.5 K-BB%, 0.96 ERA, 1.54 FIP, 1.18 WHIP, .355 BABIP, 3 SV) earning an early promotion to AA Chattanooga in late April. Again, another level for Hildenberger and he did not miss a beat (32 G, 38-2/3 IP, 45 K, 10.5 K/9, 31.3 K%, 6 BB, 1.4 BB/9, 27.1 K-BB%, 0.70 ERA, 2.21 FIP, 0.70 WHIP, .211 BABIP, 3 SV) until his season was ended on July 20 with right elbow tendinitis.
 
Hildenberger has a deceptive low slot delivery. He has a plus fastball with a lot of sink at 91-93 mph. Against righties he throws a very effective frisbee slider, and against lefties a plus change up. Plus plus command and control, he barely walks hitters and can throw all his pitches for strikes despite his funky delivery. He induces 2.5 times ground outs as fly outs against righties. His control and strikeout numbers give him almost elite K-BB% numbers. He has end of the bullpen potential, but, even though his UCL ligament is said to be okay, elbow injuries are always of concern. At 26, he has always been 1-3 years older than the competition at every step of his professional career.
 
Likely 2017 path: Depending on the elbow health, starting at the Chattanooga pen with a promotion to Rochester mid season
 
26. Niko Goodrum (37)
DOB: 2/28/1992; Age: 24
Positions: IF/CF
Bats: S, Throws: R
Height: 6'3", Weight: 198 lbs
Acquired: Drafted in the 2nd round in 2010
Professional Experience: 7; Highest level: AA (2015, 2016)
ETA: 2017
 
Niko Goodrum was drafted by the Twins in the 2nd round of the 2014 draft from Fayette County (GA) High School. It is hard to believe that Goodrum has already spent seven seasons in the Twins' organization and he is just 24 years old, turning 25 during the coming Spring Training. Goodrum was drafted early as a shortstop with five tool potential, but until this past season, other than his speed, he has been somewhat disappointing for a high level draft pick with a $514,800 signing bonus. Other than his glove that was attrocious at SS early in his career and necessitated a move to third base at Fort Myers in 2014, he has not been outright bad, with wRC+ hovering from 97-114 every season, but he did not fulfill the high expectations, and advanced slowly, making two stops at Elizabethton, one at Cedar Rapids, three at Fort Myers and two in Chattanooga. 2016 was an interesting season for Goodrum. He missed the first half with a stress fracture on his foot, but came back and had a breakthrough season. In 6 rehab games at Fort Myers (26 AB), he hit .280/.308/.560 with 149 wRC+ before he moved to Chattanooga where he finished the season with .275/.357/.451, 22 BB and 52 K, in 49 games (207 AB) with a 133 wRC+. He hit 7 HRs and was 9/11 in SB for the season. He stole 29 bases in 2015, but for half season and with a foot fracture, his 2016 total was expected. To get the additional AB, Goodrum played in the Venezuela League, where he hit .284/.354/.431 with 13 BB and 29 K in 116 AB. All in all Goodrum has 349 AB in 2016 with very promising results.
 
Goodrum is a switch hitter that hits equally well from each side of the plate. He played at every infield position and centerfield. As indicated, his defense turned him from a shortstop to a third baseman earlier, but he has proven inadequate in that position. However the last two seasons, his play back at shortstop as well as centerfield, has been above average, reducing his errors by a lot. This positional versatility and a potential sustainability of his success with the bat last season, may indicate that Goodrum might have a major league future as a utility player.
 
Likely 2017 path: Invited to the Twins' spring training with the potential to win a spot depending on performance and whether Dozier will still be with the Twins. Likely at the MLB-level at some point in the season depending on performance and injuries.

There are all kinds of questions surrounding whether the Twins should trade Santana.
 
The market is a huge factor. Is it better to keep him given the limited options in or outside the organization? Is it better to trade him given the demand and supply? Will the demand be greater in July?
 
My interest is exploring the likelihood that he will continue to be a valuable pitcher for the next three seasons that the Twins can control. I looked for a similar group of pitchers with a healthy track record and solid age 33 season as well as providing league average performance age 29-33.
 
I used this criteria

Pitchers pitched at least 750 innings in the 5 seasons age 29-33
Pitchers that had an ERA+ centered around 102 for those 5 seasons
Pitchers with a good age 33 season and an ERA+ of better than league average
Pitchers since 1990 and the change in bullpen usage

Note- ERA+ is a searchable tool in play index. The various ERA estimators relative to league are not. At 750 innings, ERA+ will do as well as the others. It isn't as good for the age 33 season but looking at group data will give a good sample.
 
I pulled two groups from B-R's play index. The first group was the age 29-33 group. I found a group of 66 pitchers centered at an ERA+. The second group was age 33 pitchers with a good full season at that age. I found 64 pitchers in that group.
 
After finding the intersection of the two groups I ended up with 23 pitchers. One is Santana of course. Two others were also 33 in 2016 in J.A. Happ and Jason Hammel.
 
This is the remaining group of 20 pitchers. Radke is in the group though he retired after age 33 due to a shoulder injury. Removing him would be cherry picking but you might consider it a group of 19.
 
Ken Hill
Pete Harnisch
Kevin Gross
Woody Williams
Ted Lilly
Brad Radke
Shane Reynolds
Tim Belcher
Ervin Santana
Jason Hammel
Miguel Batista
Bobby Witt
Dave Burba
J.A. Happ
Jake Peavy
Bronson Arroyo
Kevin Appier
Kyle Lohse
Steve Trachsel
Todd Stottlemyre
Doug Davis
Esteban Loaiza
Hideo Nomo
 
At age 33, the group had an ERA+ range of 100 to 144. Santana was 124.
 
Comparing Santana against the median
 
median 12-10, 195 IP, 189 H, 60 BB, 143 K, 3.83 ERA
Santana 7-11, 181.1IP, 168 H, 53 BB, 149 K, 3.38 ERA
 
The context of offense and strikeouts was a little different in 2016 than the earlier part of the chosen era but it seemed a fair comparison group.
 
The 5 year group had an ERA+ range of 97-111, Santana was 101.
 
median 152-144, 896.2, 862, 309, 661, 4.12
Santana 140-140, 874.1, 820, 264, 704, 3.91
 
So how did this group perform at ages 34 through 36?
 
Age 34
There were some outstanding age 34 seasons. Nomo had Belcher had excellent seasons.
10 of 20 pitchers had an ERA+ of 100 or better.
9 of 20 pitchers threw at least 150 innings (Batista was a closer) so 10 in 20 were healthy full season. Peavy and Stottlemyre had good seasons while not injured in 19 and 17 starts.
2615.1 innings from the group
As a group, the median ERA+ was 95.5 (100.7 ERA+ weighted by innings pitched)

Age 35
Woody Williams was outstanding in his 17 starts while healthy
5 of 20 pitchers had an ERA+ of 100 or better.
8 of 20 pitchers threw at least 150 innings. Additionally Williams was very valuable in his 17 starts
2403 innings from the group
As a group the median ERA+ was 86 (93.6 ERA+ weighted by innings pitched)

Age 36 (19 in this group. Peavy is 36 this year)
Tim Belcher had a very good season with 34 starts and an ERA+ of 111
6 of 19 pitchers had an ERA+ of 100 or better though 2 of those seasons were less than 50 innings
5 of 19 pitchers threw at least 150 innings
1426.1 innings from the group
As a group, the median ERA+ was 75.5 (96 weighted by innings pitched)

Innings as a group
33: 3786
34: 2615.1
35: 2403
36: 1426.1
 
This started as a group of 20 pitchers that had been healthy ages 29-33 while pitching well at age 33. In spite of their health, injuries were a factor age 34 to 36. Even at age 34 only 10 of the 20 provided full seasons.
 
There is a reason to be optimistic about 2017 for Santana. Those that stayed healthy maintained their solid performance. Twelve of 20 made solid contributions. There is also a reason to be a little optimistic through 2019. The ERA+ weighted by innings shows a near league average performance which isn't easy to acquire and rare among Twin pitchers since 2011.
 
There is also reason for concern. The innings drop off from the group of healthy pitchers is significant.
 
Ervin Santana is a very good pitcher and valuable to any team. He could well perform as a number 2 starter again next year. There is a reasonable chance that he will be a solid pitcher the next three seasons. Perhaps a better chance than Donald Trump winning the election.
 
Should Santana's age be a factor in the Twins decision on whether to trade him? Is there some reason to believe that there is something different about Santana compared to this group of pitchers who were also reasonable healthy through age 33?
 
Pitching is difficult enough to acquire that they might be better off gambling on Santana staying healthy. Those that stayed healthy performed reasonably well through age 36. The Twins could trade Santana for a young prospect, but there is no guarantee that prospect will remain healthy.
 
After looking at this group, I think I might gamble on Santana.