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Hosken Bombo Disco

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  1. Like
    Hosken Bombo Disco reacted to Mark G in Grading Falvey and CO   
    I say this with all due respect and I strive to be polite, but i don't know how your first paragraph could be more wrong.  Molitor a terrible manager?  Baldelli couldn't carry his lineup card onto the field, much less know as much about the game.  And the only modernization this FO has brought has been their analytics, which is primarily responsible for the situation we are currently in.  The cupboards couldn't have been too bare when they came in, as we were a wild card team in their first year, and a few free agents coming in and having good years gave us 2 division titles.  If they get credit for those years, they take full responsibility for this year as well; can't go back 5 years and blame Ryan for 2021.  As for organizational depth, it improved by trading away key pieces from the team their first 2 years, and leaving Molitor to take the blame.  Really not cool.  And where is all of that organizational depth?  A lot of it is on the IL, which seems to be the norm for this organization at all levels.  
    I agree completely with the 2nd paragraph, and if they go down that path we can salvage the group that would have to be considered our base.  I am rooting for them to succeed.   And while I may disagree with a particular assessment, I love the fact we can debate politely.  
  2. Like
    Hosken Bombo Disco reacted to bean5302 in 2022 team is mostly set up at this point   
    For a team with almost nothing but question marks on the mound to fill 13 positions "Mostly Set Up" seems pretty confident.
  3. Like
    Hosken Bombo Disco got a reaction from Cormac McCarthy in Blood Quotidian: Volume Two, The Leverage Trilogy   
    Dead on. Marvelous.
    (thanks for linking back to Part I.)
  4. Like
    Hosken Bombo Disco reacted to tarheeltwinsfan in Too-late idea for stretching out Berrios   
    What effect, if any, would this demotion have on Berrios' future salary and arbitration, and future contracts down the road?
  5. Thanks
    Hosken Bombo Disco reacted to Parker Hageman in Let Them Swing How They Want   
    There hasn't been a publicly provide update on the attack angle (or other swing data) since 2017 so it is difficult to say if there has been a significant league-wide shift on that. It's possible it is a factor in combination with the trend of higher velo, higher located fastballs. 
    In regards to Max Kepler, in 2017 Kepler had one of the lowest attack angles in baseball at 4 degrees.  The "optimal" attack angle for fastballs was around 8-10 degrees. By comparison, Joe Mauer was 11 degrees and Nelson Cruz was 12. It makes sense about Kepler considering coaches said that they felt he was too steep into the swing zone and that resulted on him getting on top of balls (grounders into the shift).
    I can't say how much he has or hasn't changed in terms of attack angle. He has acknowledged that in 2019, he tried to chase launch angle -- and he both increased that, his exit velo and pulled the ball more.  I don't know how much of that is from the coaching side either. 
    Another factor is VERTICAL BAT ANGLE. This is another measurement of the degree at which the barrel of the bat is compared to the knob of the bat at contact. There is a good thread on this concept here but, simply, a flat vertical bat angle produces more in-play mi****s (infield field balls and weak grounders) while a steeper vertical bat angle will typically produce more mi****s out of play (foul balls) and squarely hit balls. If you look at the picture in this 2017 article, you can see an example of Kepler's flat vertical bat angle. It's possible that Kepler still has a very flat swing (attack angle-wise) which is resulting in that high rate of infield flies and ground balls. 
    As far as backspin goes, research by Dr. Alan Nathan shows that the best and most consistent way to hit balls with backspin is by (1) hitting them square and (2) slightly south of the ball's equator. If your attack angle is steep, like Kepler's in 2017, you have to have nearly perfect timing to get to that spot. With an optimal attack angle closer to 8-10 degrees, you have more room for error. 
    Adding to this, high backspin, as shown in some research, isn't optimal either. A recent Fangraphs' study showed that players who have high backspin underperform compared to those in the square contact group. High backspin adds flight carry but does not necessarily get as many hits. While it is good to have a backspinning ball flight, exit velocity is a superior indicator of hit potential. This is to say, hitters shouldn't focus on backspin contact. 
    I don't know if this has answered anything but it certainly killed some time.
  6. Like
    Hosken Bombo Disco got a reaction from Parker Hageman in Let Them Swing How They Want   
    I wonder if increased strikeouts are a byproduct of optimizing Attack Angle for power. I bet (hypothesize) it is and I bet there’s been some swing coaching on the Twins lineup that has been counterproductive.
    I would like to see Kepler’s data, in particular. I remember that nice flat swing from earlier years somehow generating all that backspin. “Let Kep swing how he wants, how he did when he first came up.” Thanks @Parker Hageman. I will have to get on Substack. 
  7. Like
    Hosken Bombo Disco got a reaction from Seth Stohs in Blood Quotidian: Volume Two, The Leverage Trilogy   
    Dead on. Marvelous.
    (thanks for linking back to Part I.)
  8. Like
    Hosken Bombo Disco reacted to Otto von Ballpark in Revisiting Falvine Trades: Part 1, Ryan Pressly   
    While relatively minor in terms of WAR, it's a very interesting trade to analyze.
    There are a couple other factors worth considering:
    1. The Twins traded Pressly in 2018, but then turned around and traded minor league assets for relief help at the 2019 deadline. Had they kept Pressly, maybe those assets could have gone toward bolstering the lineup and rotation instead. Hard to imagine what would break the playoff curse at this point, but a different approach in 2019 (and 2020) could have helped.
    2. Alcala and Celestino could easily out-produce Pressly over the span of their team control years -- but if those performances come in seasons when the rest of the team is poor, they may be less valuable than Pressly's 2019 could have been to a postseason team.
    3. I'm not sure how to phrase it, but piggybacking on #2, I think future WAR can often be "discounted" a little bit compared to present WAR. Maybe "opportunity cost"? If Alcala contributes 1 WAR to the 2022 pen, that's nice -- but it's not as if we would have been 1 WAR worse in 2022 if we hadn't made the Pressly trade. Four years of FA, trade, and development decisions would have all changed a bit in that alternate scenario, and we probably could have come up with a 2022 alternative that provided some percentage of Alcala's contribution. Enough that a slight edge in WAR may not be enough to tip the scales toward the Twins side of the ledger -- some plus performances from Alcala and Celestino might be necessary for that.
  9. Like
    Hosken Bombo Disco reacted to FanSince61 in Good reasons why Red-Cross Rocco should be let go   
    You all know the front office is not going to send Rocco walking (yet). They will give him every opportunity to pull the troops together and bring respect back to the team.  What are the odds of that happening?  The team will likely consider itself successful to pull back near 500.  (At least we won't have to suffer through the annual 3 postgame losses.)  
    The club is on the verge of another "total system failure."  FO, Mgr and players are all having sub-par years.  If I ran the club I'd hire the best sports psychologist available.  There are too many players with ping pong balls dancing between their ears right now.  Is this something a manager can fix?  
    Hold on Twins fans.  You will have to put your WS championship hopes on hold once again.  It's been 30 years....you can wait a bit longer.
    (PS  If/when Bux gets back at least there will be something worth watching.)
     
     
  10. Like
    Hosken Bombo Disco got a reaction from weinshie in Why the Red Sox will sweep the Twins   
    bewildered, befuddled, bedazzled
  11. Like
    Hosken Bombo Disco got a reaction from weinshie in Why the Red Sox will sweep the Twins   
    I am preparing to be bewildered...
  12. Like
    Hosken Bombo Disco got a reaction from Giles Ferrell in 2021 MLB Predictions & Best Bets   
    I saw an MLB article that predicted the Twins as the third best team in the AL, but only second best in Central.
     
    I would love to see the Angels in the playoffs. The last spring rumor I saw was they will let Ohtani off the leash to be a true two-way player, instead of managing his days off around his pitching and DH. That would be fun!
  13. Like
    Hosken Bombo Disco got a reaction from mikelink45 in Ten Moments that shook the sports world   
    You pretty much covered it Mike.
     
    The Gophers final four run in 1997 was fun.
     
    If “shook the MN sportsworld” is the criteria, without regard for good or bad, I’d put Mike Lynn’s Herschel Walker trade in there. Set up the Cowboys for a decade!
  14. Like
    Hosken Bombo Disco got a reaction from Doctor Gast in Infield Defense: Then VS Now   
    I’m not as sold as you. I give the front office credit for bringing the quant team into the 20th Century, and they spend on good free agents, but they have lost and/or traded away too much talent, and they’re not winning postseason games. They are not the next Moneyball; but they don’t need to be, I guess.
  15. Like
    Hosken Bombo Disco reacted to tony&rodney in "Winning" the offseason   
    Do you expect trades or do you think the Twins will roll with what they have?
  16. Like
    Hosken Bombo Disco got a reaction from Doctor Gast in Let`s bring back the `87 Twins (Part 2)   
    Honestly I never liked the M, but I always liked the pinstripes (the Twins pinstripes). My least favorite Twins uniform was the solid white with gold trim when they moved into Target Field. I think you still see that once in a while but only rarely. Keep the powder blues! It makes me feel like I’m in a more innocent time.
     
    I think the concussion thing sprouting up after 2010 was more of just societal awareness. Players got concussions but played through them.
     
    Great comment! Come back soon.
  17. Like
    Hosken Bombo Disco reacted to Vanimal46 in Off-Season Blueprint: Punting at DH   
    Found it! Doctor Gast was the TD member who made the suggestion of Chris Taylor. 

    http://twinsdaily.com/topic/44211-addressing-the-twins-greatest-need/
  18. Like
    Hosken Bombo Disco reacted to Doctor Gast in Off-Season Blueprint: Punting at DH   
    Thank you Vanimal! Chris Taylor would be my lone trade also, it should take a lower prospect. Looking forward to more of your blueprints, things will be awfully boring until after New Years & then it`ll get very exciting
  19. Like
    Hosken Bombo Disco got a reaction from Parker Hageman in What I'm Reading   
    Always love seeing people preach the Brad Radke gospel.
  20. Like
    Hosken Bombo Disco got a reaction from mikelink45 in Baseball has a special connection to Black Lives Matter   
    Thank you Mike for your perspective once again.
  21. Like
    Hosken Bombo Disco got a reaction from mikelink45 in Covid's coming   
    Thanks for putting your thoughts out there, mikelink45
  22. Like
    Hosken Bombo Disco got a reaction from tarheeltwinsfan in Covid's coming   
    Thanks for putting your thoughts out there, mikelink45
  23. Like
    Hosken Bombo Disco got a reaction from Dantes929 in What's wrong with Nick's column   
    I have not read the above commentary yet, but I will. And I will probably disagree with a lot of it. I just want to say I appreciate coming to the blog and willing to speak your mind and think out your thoughts without resorting to quick and easy mud slinging in the other thread.
  24. Like
    Hosken Bombo Disco got a reaction from glunn in What's wrong with Nick's column   
    I have not read the above commentary yet, but I will. And I will probably disagree with a lot of it. I just want to say I appreciate coming to the blog and willing to speak your mind and think out your thoughts without resorting to quick and easy mud slinging in the other thread.
  25. Like
    Hosken Bombo Disco reacted to G Lee in What's wrong with Nick's column   
    "We live in the greatest country on earth" is the laziest possible statement ever. The transfer of money and power to the top 1% has effectively destroyed our democracy and turned us into the equivalent of a banana republic.
     
    We have a president who dispels peaceful protesters with chemical irritants for a fake photo opp. We have an obsolete Constitution that does not allow for modification. We have a policeman with at least 17 complaints of misconduct who murders a handcuffed man in broad daylight, with three of his colleagues watching and doing nothing. 
     
    Our country is broken, and far from the "greatest in the world." Anyone who thinks otherwise is delusional.
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