Cris E

I remember very well that article you wrote last year. I also remember well the mention of some form of piggy-backing which I didn't see, which could have been a follow up article. It all made sense because of the reasons mentioned and even the pitchers the Twins were somewhat counted on never materialized (Thorpe & Dobnak as examples) not to mention Alcala. 
Piggy-backing is making use of the long relief corps. The problem wasn't that the experiment failed, the problem was the experiment (piggy-backing) was never incorporated. They continued the same old formula as if we had a very strong rotation & full supply of dominate short RPs. We had an abundant supply of profiled spot start/ long RP (hot out of ST Smeltzer, Ober, Winder, Sands and fragile arm Paddack) to begin the season.
But the fact was that we had a weak rotation & poor short relief corp. If the experiment (type of piggy-backing) was indeed incorporated and if Duffy & Pagan were not profiled as closer and their mistake were quickly reversed. That'd vastly change our outcome, but it wasn't. Injuries, depleting our pitching resourses & ineffecency were the result of over relying on a poor short relief & over stretching the rotation.
Entering '23, many of the same conditions for this hybrid pitching still exists. We don't have the money to have a stable full of work horses & an abundance of dominate RPs. You can't profile Maeda as a SP being almost 2 yrs of recouperating from TJ surgery (he was never been a work horse), hopefully Gray will be in condition after ST, Ryan will take that next step and Mahle to resemble more the SP we expected. Ober after an injured '23 shouldn't be profiled more than a spot starter/ long relief.
Although an work horse is much needed, he won't solve all our problems. We still need the long relief/ spot SP  role, especially when we have so many good candidates (Maeda, Ober, Varland, Winder, etc) most of them should be in MLB gaining experience and not wasting their time in AAA, SWR with a little bit more seasoning in AAA should be ready.
The problem with this experiment was that it wasn't incorporated, let's not make the same mistake again. 

It's nice to have a plan implemented but if the plan is not successful you can change the plan midstream and go to plan B ... 
They did not  ...
They plan looked good at the beginning  and the twins looked like they were going to distance themselves from the rest of the division  ...
they did not  ...
the plan soured and we played below 500 the rest of the year  ...
We may of found some useful players in 2022 for 2023  ,
they did...
tap into that talent and make them better for 2023  ...
That is to be seen ...
It's my plan and I'm sticking to it  ...

I have been pretty easy on the front office regarding 2022 because of the preposterous number of injuries. Most of their plans were shredded early and the year devolved into patching and promoting pretty quickly. 
BUT they did plan a rotation around Bundy and Archer and at least one youngster (Grey, Ryan, Archer, Bundy, kids) and that was always going to put a load on the pen. Even in a world where Archer and Bundy slowly grow strong and healthy there should have been a lot more structure around the swing role for the first half of the season. Those guys never improved, just kept slinging 4+ innings of decent starts, but the pen never changed to cover that many innings. The Falvine can wear that part of the outcomes as a direct result of not designing innings 4-6..

It is ridiculous of the F.O. to expect to not have starters see a batter a third time in a game, but then leave the BP completely unprepared for that kind of load.  Probably the biggest glaring mistake they've made IMO.  If you want the starters to go 4-5 innings fine, but you must then stock you BP with arms who can make up for the short starts period.

All I ask is either go after top line relievers or turn to guys like Ober or Winder as sixth, seventh inning set up guys, but please, please don't don't circle what's left over of the reliever market at the end of the signing period like Buzzards as the Twins usually do. We do NOT need to sign relievers with average talent.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2022-starter-pitching.shtml
The MLB-wide IP/GS was 5.2 innings. The Astros led everyone at 5.9 and the Twins were below average at 4.7, but not as far below as some seem to imply. That half inning below average is two outs, so not a ton different from the rest of baseball. What was really different was that we had our 12th and 22nd and 33rd best pitchers out there more than just about every other team and anyone's 30th pitcher is almost always going to be terrible or unprepared.  There were plenty of arms in the plans for 2022 that were largely missing: Maeda, Alcala, Stashak, and big acquisitions Mahle and Paddack only made a hand full of starts. 
They have the bones of a good bullpen: Duran, Lopez, Thielbar, Jax and Moran are good pitchers. Pick through some of the kids, only use Pagan before the seventh and maybe re-sign Fulmer and you could be a swingman or two away from adequacy without changing too much.  Mostly things hinge on being able to limit your staff to the top 15-20 guys in the org rather than finding 38 arms to run out there.

Let's not overstate things here, ok? Hard to say a trade involving a reliever cost the Twins 2019, when they won 101 games. Would Pressly have been useful in the playoffs? Sure, but it wouldn't have changed the fact that our high-powered offense only scored 7 runs in 3 games. or that our "best" option to start Game 2 was Randy Dobnak. Not trading Pressly wouldn't have done anything to change the fact that Kepler, Sano, and Garver (key players all season for the Twins) did nothing in the playoffs or that Buxton was hurt. Hell, the bullpen in 2019 was pretty dang good for the Twins, with Rogers, May, and Duffey all having excellent seasons...and we didn't give up anything of note for ether Dyson (a bust) or Romo (excellent down the stretch). is anyone clamoring for Lewin Diaz or Jaylin Davis? (if you really want them, pretty sure we could acquire them quite easily)
Would have loved to have Pressly on the team, but it was a reasonable trade a the time (the Twins were 8 games back of the division and even further back in the wild card) and you can't predict injuries. Alcala looked very promising in 2020 and was developing well in 2021, and was expected to be a significant contributor this season to the Twins bullpen before he got hurt. If he bounces back from the injury he could be a weapon in 2023, because he's absolutely death to right-handed batters already. Celestino is a talented CF who will be a quality 4th OF and backup CF option if he continues to develop as a hitter. He was thrown into the fire too soon in 2021, and I think that's colored some people's perception on who he is. I'm not going to hammer the front office because they couldn't see the Alcala injury coming 3 1/2 years before it happened...

You win trades by improving the players that you acquire since almost all trades are near equal value when agreed upon.  
Houston did a great job of taking Pressly and making him much more than he was with us. That is how you win trades. 
Houston does a great job of making players better so they win a lot of trades... and... and... games. 
 
 

Who knows? One thing's for sure...they won't improve it by bringing Duffey back. I'm sure that pic is him watching another ball leave the park!

In theory, I think not spending huge on your pen is a smart idea. But that doesn't mean not spending at all. And I do think the FO has gotten way to cute in their approach/belief in a lot of their additions.  They've probably done far better in trades than in FA arms which baffles me. RP may be volatile, but spending smartly up front is better than trading prospects mid year because you didn't do your job before the season.
I agree that there is a potentially really good pen in the making currently. We all know the names: Duran, Lopez, Jax, Thielbar, Alcala and Moran. And in Winder, Sands, Henriquez,  etc, there are a lot of middle relief options to create the very necessary bridge between the starters and the back end of the pen. Something they grossly ignored for a good portion of last year.
I'm very encouraged by Moran, (will they keep Sisk on the 40 man for LH depth?), and the return/potential of Alcala. But I don't know that I want to count on them. I want more depth, more options. I'm more than OK with Fulmer back, or someone else at least as good. I'm also very interested in Hand for another proven LH. I don't know that I'm crazy about Rogers, but if he's healthy, a return "home" might do wonders for him. And the Twins know how best to use him.
They have $50M to spend, or more depending on Urshela and Kepler decisions. There are no glaring holes anywhere other than an answer at SS. But they need a RH bat somewhere, another catcher, said SS, and MAYBE a SP if the right one can be found. Can they afford a combined $10-12M for TWO pen arms? If they can fit it in to payroll, that's what I'd like to see. Fulmer or equivalent/better, and a solid LH you feel you can count on for a combined $10-12M. 
ONE is almost a necessity. TWO would be a luxury that I don't know if is affordable, but would be outstanding depth!

Where did all this negativity about the FO's rigidity in bullpen design come from? They are trying a ton of things to get effective arms out there, and it still ended up a lost season.  The list below from the article doesn't include Fulmer (trade for good performer) or Joe Smith (FA signing that worked until he suddenly stopped being effective (hurt?) and was cut) or the swarm of anonymous minor league soldiers that shuffled through the roster this summer. 
That said, I am disappointed that we haven't moved to a different pitching coach. I am usually one of the most forgiving people you'll meet when playing the injury card, but after a year where we were having such difficulty I hoped they'd make a move to shore up the coaching. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2022-starter-pitching.shtml
The MLB-wide IP/GS was 5.2 innings. The Astros led everyone at 5.9 and the Twins were below average at 4.7, but not as far below as some seem to imply. That half inning below average is two outs, so not a ton different from the rest of baseball. What was really different was that we had our 12th and 22nd and 33rd best pitchers out there more than just about every other team and anyone's 30th pitcher is almost always going to be terrible or unprepared.  There were plenty of arms in the plans for 2022 that were largely missing: Maeda, Alcala, Stashak, and big acquisitions Mahle and Paddack only made a hand full of starts. 
They have the bones of a good bullpen: Duran, Lopez, Thielbar, Jax and Moran are good pitchers. Pick through some of the kids, only use Pagan before the seventh and maybe re-sign Fulmer and you could be a swingman or two away from adequacy without changing too much.  Mostly things hinge on being able to limit your staff to the top 15-20 guys in the org rather than finding 38 arms to run out there.

I think too many people are expecting too much offense from a catcher.  Very few catchers are good at both offense and defense, similar to SS.  When you find one that is good at both, they are worth a ton of money because they are super rare.  You need to decide your balance between the two.  
Jeffers and Sanchez slash line is about equal.  I do not know how much better Jeffers is to Sanchez, but to be set on Jeffers, he better be much better than Sanchez as it comes to defense, including pitch framing, to draw the conclusion that Sanchez is not the right one, but Jeffers is fine.  Hopefully Jeffers can upgrade is offense, because if not, in the next few years his pitch framing will be pointless when the electronic zone finally gets put in. 

I get stealing strikes wins games. Right or wrong it seems like huge advantage to have a catcher that actually hits his weight. A two out run scoring single should be more valuable then one or two balls called a strikes in a game.

Yeah I think Sano will probably get that deal. He's going into his age 30 season so not like he's completely washed but given his injury history he will most likely be a bench bat. Though I could see some team trying to make him their project given his age and raw power. Though I have no clue if he's even fixable and what kind of upside they'd be looking for. Glad he's not our problem anymore though.

It wouldn't surprise me in the least if he gets an MLB deal worth $2-3m from someone. If I was a crap team with no chance, I'd absolutely pay Sano in hopes he turns into July trade bait. There's very little to lose for a team like the Reds, Nationals, or A's.

My head will explode if the Twins bring back Bundy. No no no NO NONO NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Give the ball to Varland, Winder, or Woods Richardson or literally anyone with some upside.

Stashak has been good when not injured. But good enough to hold a 40 man spot?
Garlick crushes lefties but not much else. Seems like someone you can upgrade with a FA
Pagan this one is dicey...3-4 mil for a decent RP is kind of a bargain. Now before anyone that reads this starts typing a response. Please ignore the 1st 1/2 and look at the stats after July 4th. Similar or better the Taylor Roger or Trevor May. NO, he shouldn't be pitching the 8th or 9th inning. If our wise FO and manager are stuck at 2 times through the order Pagan to finish the 5th or pitch the 6th at his cost makes some sense.

I agree that Bundy did his job here. However with his truly limited upside, I hope that the Twins don't pick him up at any price. They appear to have enough depth that they won't have someone like Bundy starting games this coming year. If they do, the season is probably over anyway. 
I don't know if Sano will get a major league contract or not, but he'll get a chance to show what he's got with someone. I don't think he'll ever make contact often enough to be a good offensive player.
I really wish that Archer could have built up more during 2022, but the Twins can't afford to have a guy that is guaranteed to go no more than five innings every time out. 

I will be shocked to be honest. I think this year was the final straw and Falvey is ready to move on. 

Lots of interesting takes here about Correa. People complaining about his bat (he was the best hitting shortstop in MLB by wRC+) others about his defense, since apparently yearly defensive metrics are reliable now. I think it would be interesting to look at how many people here were hailing the start of the kirilloff, lanarch and jeffers era in the late 2010s when they were in the system and then we can see how that panned out. We could go back to the Sano, Kepler and Polanco hype train for more comps. I'm not saying that will happen with lewis et al but I wouldn't say it's unimaginable.
I personally don't think that these mega deals are great value for teams, however if you want a top tier shortstop then most of the time you have to pay market rates, or pray that brooks lee pans out as expected. Realistically what you're paying for in Correa is a premium bat who also plays the second hardest position in the game. Defensive metrics vary on his defensive abilities. DRS thinks he's elite, FRAA (BPs metric) thinks he's below average and OAA has his range being above average. I think people will have different opinions about where on that spectrum he lies but even if you take FRAAs verdict of him being below average, his bat more than makes up for it.
In the likely event the twins don't resign Correa they will have to ask themselves how are we going to replace the 4-5 wins that we're losing from last season. Aside from massively improved pitching or signing one of the other top SS, I don't see any way this realistically happens, sadly praying for a MVP season from buxton (since he already had 3-4 war) isn't realistic. But we know this FO doesn't like to spend pitchers who could actually give you 4-5 wins so that just leaves me thinking we'll have another mediocre team without Correa.

My humble opinion, which I believe to be fair for both parties.  Yes, I want Correa to stay.  How about an 8 year contract for $280M slightly front loaded with player options after years 4 and 5 and mutual options after years 6 and 7.  Absolutely no "No trade clause".  I think this should be offered early and if not accepted move on so we still have options on how to spend that money.  With money saved from the Sano and Sanchez Contracts we still have money to sign a frontline pitcher.  Our payroll would be virtually the same.  Make some trades if necessary to upgrade at C and bullpen.  And I think this would be enough to compete, barring the injury factor,  but everybody faces that possibility.

The Twins roster situation is exactly why they should be doing a large contract now. They won't give a pitcher a long term deal and they don't have other holes to fill. If they're going to ride steady at a 140Mish payroll, it'll have to be due to signing a big time player. 
And the team is young, so it's going to be this way for the foreseeable future.

Dunno. Sooner with players as good as Correa than without.
 
I do not subscribe to the theory of "wait until you have good players to sign good players." 
I don't believe the finances are beyond the Twins capabilities.
I don't believe signing market rate contracts for good players prevents the Twins from acquiring or developing other good players. Developing good players is needed whether we sign free agents or not. 
Sitting around waiting for the stars to align and our farm system to win us a World Series isn't going to work, IMO. It certainly hasn't for decades. Hasn't even won us a single postseason game in a long long time.
When I watched the postseason, what I saw was teams with superstars mixed in. Players much better than average. Get some. Find more.  Don't let opportunities to get one go by easily.
 

Doubtful. Maeda had a great first year with the Twins and was incredibly important and impactful for us on a team that made the playoffs and won a division title. Even with this year being lost to injury and last season being partially wiped out, we still have gotten more value out of Maeda than Graterol has produced. Starters are still more valuable than relievers, and Maeda finished #2 in the Cy for us! Graterol is a useful reliever, but is he better than say...Griffin Jax? (awfully similar stats when you look at WPA, bWAR, ERA, WHIP, FIP for last season. Graterol only clearly pips Jax in ERA+, but Jax pips him on one of the greatest abilities...availability.) No regrets about that deal; we got what we needed.