Dman

I am not bullish on Larnach and I was pretty critical of his projectability last year.
 

But, the fact is he made huge strides against one of the most popular breaking pitches in the game which he was lost against last year, the slider. He's still been nearly useless against changeups, but there is some minor movement forward on that one too. I'll give credit where it's due and that's the reason he got a little bump up.

Great report, love how you show your work and I read the entire thing and was nodding my head.
My only disagreement comes from this quote regarding Trevor Larnach: "I'm going to ignore his huge slump over the last month, and especially last couple of weeks and hope it's luck related rather than a repeat of last season." -- Since his debut, there has always been a huge group of fans lining up to make up excuses for his poor play. A guy like Miranda goes 0-for-5 and Twins fans are ready to jettison him to the Mighty Mussels, meanwhile Larnach goes 2-for-40 over a 3 week stretch and it's "just bad luck". But hey, it's your article and you can ignore and/or include anything you want! I just happen to disagree on Larnach.
But like I said, great work dude and thanks for the post. Very impressed with your thoroughness and even more impressed with how you were able to get it down in writing for the masses. Well done.

I think the catching issue is league wide. Take out Wilson Contreras, the league's best catcher, and the difference between a "good" catcher and a poor or average catcher (whatever you want to call Sanchez and Jeffers) is about 1 WAR. You can usually spend less in assets to improve the team in other areas.
I'd just hold on tight and hope Alex Isola is the real deal. 

Twins have some exciting prospects, hope a few of them get get moved up a level soon.

This was a great read!  Thanks!  It is a SSS so regression is likely coming.  Pitchers will be throwing him tougher stuff to hit in the zone.  Things are about to get harder. We will see if Mr. Garlick can handle the changes that will be made.

This was a great read!  Thanks!  It is a SSS so regression is likely coming.  Pitchers will be throwing him tougher stuff to hit in the zone.  Things are about to get harder. We will see if Mr. Garlick can handle the changes that will be made.

He's putting together a career season like Garver had in 2019.

Here are a few things I've always wanted on the Twins official roster pages:
- Shading the player rows to reflect their status -- primarily to recognize the 60-day IL guys who don't count against the 40-man limit, but if a second additional shade wasn't too intrusive, you could do one for the non-active roster guys too (minors or 10-day IL).
- Total counts above each positional group would be nice. For example, if the heading said something like "Pitchers (23 + 3)" or "Pitchers (23 / 26)" to indicate that there are 23 pitchers counting against the number 40 at this time, and an additional 3 beyond that. Same for catchers, infielders, and outfielders.

I'm taking a strange, opposite approach here.
Rooker has always been declared as a solid athlete since drafted, and throughout his milb career, with a decent arm. This has been referenced to some degree in the OP. So why has that not translated? Has he just not worked hard enough at it? Or does he just not have good recognition skills? After watching such OF as Willingham and Young play the OF, I have the belief Rooker has room to improve defensively just through work and repitition.
But his bat has to be his calling card, whether he is a DH or role player.
He MIGHT be running out of time after a productive and exciting SSS in 2020. He sure didn't seem to take advantage in 2021 with the opportunities presented to him. But with a little 20/20 vision used, as well as some of the positives listed in the OP, he has clearly demonstrated in his milb career that each promotional level he has needed a little time to settle in, figure some things out, and then rake. Now, he hasn't exactly done the same thing at the ML level to be sure! And maybe he won't. But it's the hardest last step to make.
I could see him being included in a package, especially to a team hurting for a semi-young power bat to add to their offense and willing to give him 400-500 AB. But I think he's talented enough I'd keep him on the 40 and continue working with him.

I appreciate the analysis and the attempt to locate value in our player, but I feel the bar is set too low. A bat-first player who costs you runs when on defense is basically only breakeven if his OPS is .800. He needs peripherals more like in the Nelson Cruz range, to be an asset.
Our 40-man roster is kind of thin with outfielders, once you discard the 30-year old placeholder corner guys, so I'm not eager to likewise discard Rooker for a bag of balls or similar.  But I'm not very high on him and it's mainly the sad state of our roster that makes me open to investing further in his development.

I never saw a 200-300 million dollar player coming here so I have no expectations for Story or Correa.  Unloading Donaldson really did cost us Garver and Rortvedt. Shows you how much in demand he was. But it got us more playing time for Arraez and Miranda. I wouldn't be surprised to see Sanchez unloaded, there is no reason to eat his contract. I still see 2022 as a year long try out camp.

As much as this FO likes spin rates, they always seem to be behind the curve. IF they had acted last fall to sign a top pitcher, Ray just as an example, we would now have two top pitchers in Ray and Gray, to pair with Ryan and Ober.  So, if they were to add Montas, the rotation would be in excellent shape and maybe even better if a couple of young guys proved themselves.  And, you would have the top 3 pitchers for two years and Ray for more.  But, they wouldn't move until they unloaded Donaldson's contract, and now it is too late to sign anyone.  If they assumed a little more financial risk, we could have an excellent starting rotation, Donaldson, Kiner-Falefa, Polanco and Sano/Kirilloff in the infield with Arraez filling in, and Jeffers and Rortvedt at catcher.  We could have rotated at DH between Sano, Arraez, Donaldson, Miranda, and others, had Buxton, Kepler and Kirilloff, in the outfield, with a fourth outfielder to found internally or in free agency.  Even if we were to add Story, I would prefer that lineup to what we will be fielding.

I think those remaining pitchers are waiting to see who loses out on Montas to see if they can up the dollars teams might be willing to spend to add them to the roster.  If the Twins are in on Montas and Pineda would like to pitch for the Twins then he likely has to wait and see if the Twins do manage to get Montas.  If they do then my guess is big Mike signs elsewhere if they don't then I assume he will be looking for another multi-year deal.  Probably the same for the other pitchers as well.  When the Montas trade is done things should start moving real fast for the rest of the free agent pitchers left on the market.

I was really excited with the first two moves.  Gray and Kiner-Falafa plugged two holes at minimal dollar cost.    Then the Donaldson debacle.  Essentially Garver, Donaldson, Rortvedt and taking on about 14M for two useful but not particularly needed players in order to dump 7M, 21M and 8M over the next three years.   I hope like hell that this doesn't signal a retrenchment and Pohlad getting cold feet about the aggressive foray into the free agent market with Donaldson.  Trevor Story?  Not a big fan.  Damn, Kiner-Falafa was exactly the kind of shortstop we needed.    

No one, including Brockmire himself, will ever surpass the home run call in S1E1: "That ball cannot be buried in a Jewish cemetery because it just got tattooed!"

The 94 strike absolutely hurt MLB fandom, but if you look back before the 94 strike MLB averaged a work stoppage every 3 years from the late 70s until ‘94. Your observation on the strike impact is astute but all of the other leagues had work stoppages since the last MLB stoppage in ‘94.
it’s a contributor, for sure, but less of a smoking gun

One person comes to mind right away and that's Jim Kaat. Over the years of hearing his broadcasts I have to say he is the best at breaking down the smaller parts of the game.

The Twins seem to have some money to spend (SP, SS, LF ), and some trade pieces to shore up weak areas (SP and BP).
I think Arraez is redundant and aside from Polanco the highest valued trade asset the Twins have.  The Twins offense will be just fine without Arraez and Rocco refuses to put him at the top of the order consistently anyway. To the guys who made the point that they would like to see the Twins do BOTH (give opportunities to young talent for development AND acquire some SP and maybe a SS,  I agree 110%.  The A.L. Central is winnable.  We aren't going to have a 105 win team in the A.L. Central.  We. Can. Compete.
I'd sign Trevor Story.  SS hole filled and a good bat in your lineup.  I'm not worried about his "Coors Field Effect."  He'll hit. I would package Arraez to pick up a SP and I wouldn't worry about how many years of control  I'd get, although it would be a strong consideration.  Montas, Sixto Sanchez, Bassitt, Manaea, and a host of others are interesting.  I'd bring back Big Mike for some "glue" and depending on Danny Duffy's health I'd look at him as well.  LF is kind of a black hole.  Larnach, Rooker, Celestino, even Miranda (who would replace Arraez's role) could all be a factor out there.  I'm interested in Garlick, Refsynder, Cave et all.  If THOSE are my options...give me a young player !  The Conforto suggestion is also interesting, maybe even Eddie Rosario.  If the Twins were willing to take on an undesirable contract Wil Myers would be interesting in a trade that would also bring back Gore or Weathers. 
The only other place I could POSSIBLY look to spend some money would be on a TRUE closer.  I think Taylor Rogers could be that guy, but to me it's clear Rocco doesn't.  How else do you explain sticking with Colome last season as the hole the Twins were digging for themselves got bigger and bigger.  I think the Twins have GOBS of In-House options for their Bullpen.  And I think whatever roles they  carve out for these Young Guns gives the team control over innings and usage while getting a good look at what they might have.     

Yeah I think I am with you.  They need to at least start with some more experienced pitching IMO.  I might have a pie in the sky view but I think we can compete while playing some of the younger guys too.  Ober and Ryan kept us in games as rookies I think other guys they have can as well.
Starting pitching and the pen need a fair bit of work next year to compete.  They solve that and I think this team can compete for the division but they need to pitch much, much better than last year.  If guys in the minors stay healthy they should have better depth options this year.  I don't think this team is that far away so while I wouldn't bring in a ton of guys I also wouldn't just play all the rookie pitchers either.  They need to to at least start the season with some experienced pitching.
Position player wise you have Buxton and Kepler in the outfield with your choice of Rooker, Larnach, Kirilloff and Celestino in left.  One of those guys should be good enough to get the job done.
Middle infield is Donaldson, Polanco, Sano with Arraez filling in.  They just need to find a Shortstop but should be able to find a stop gap guy somewhere.  Catcher is Garver, Rortvedt and Jeffers.  Not much is going to change there.  Possibly Miranda could fill in somewhere depending on injury and if Lewis starts out hot he could be a guy that helps with his speed and defense.  The offense was right around a top ten offense despite the poor play from some rookies and fill in's. I don't think there is too much to worry about there.  Pitching needs to improve for the team to improve.  Find that and this team is ready to compete IMO.

Yeah I think I am with you.  They need to at least start with some more experienced pitching IMO.  I might have a pie in the sky view but I think we can compete while playing some of the younger guys too.  Ober and Ryan kept us in games as rookies I think other guys they have can as well.
Starting pitching and the pen need a fair bit of work next year to compete.  They solve that and I think this team can compete for the division but they need to pitch much, much better than last year.  If guys in the minors stay healthy they should have better depth options this year.  I don't think this team is that far away so while I wouldn't bring in a ton of guys I also wouldn't just play all the rookie pitchers either.  They need to to at least start the season with some experienced pitching.
Position player wise you have Buxton and Kepler in the outfield with your choice of Rooker, Larnach, Kirilloff and Celestino in left.  One of those guys should be good enough to get the job done.
Middle infield is Donaldson, Polanco, Sano with Arraez filling in.  They just need to find a Shortstop but should be able to find a stop gap guy somewhere.  Catcher is Garver, Rortvedt and Jeffers.  Not much is going to change there.  Possibly Miranda could fill in somewhere depending on injury and if Lewis starts out hot he could be a guy that helps with his speed and defense.  The offense was right around a top ten offense despite the poor play from some rookies and fill in's. I don't think there is too much to worry about there.  Pitching needs to improve for the team to improve.  Find that and this team is ready to compete IMO.

Just want to throw out a thank you for writing this. Really fun read. 

And he might be. There's nothing to say he isn't the best, or can't be the best. As I stated, and have before, ACES develop over time, you very, very seldom just draft one. Heck, this time next year SWR or Sands could looke better than everyone. No way to know. 
You've actually watched Winder, so I defer to your opinion and assessment. I guess I lump Balazovic, Winder and Duran together, IMO, as equals. I'm really excited for all 3 to be healthy and get a full season in. Unfortunately, I think Duran is now a little further behind at the moment.

I know it's really easy to get carried away with prospect rankings and optimism of the players listed there. Look no further than the recent OP about the top 2018 list which contains a few who didn't make it, some with questions, at least one traded, etc. But each "list" should be addressed of its own accord. And I'm really excited about this list, despite some usual caveats. Because this is fun, and because I'm optimistic, and because we don't have anything ML related to talk about, we'll, here I go.
SANDS is sort of a "poster child" for how this FO sees a path to pitching development. Right or wrong only time will tell, but they believe that unless a pitcher lands in your lap right off the top, there are a lot of guys with real potential to be developed past the first couple of picks. Sands seems to make their ideas valid, as have a couple lower selections thus far. I think he's close and is forgotten about by some. I might have ranked him higher. 
WALLNER is a better version of Rooker, IMO. Reportedly, he's already a better OF defensively. That's not a knock on Rooker who still has a chance, I just think he's a better, more well rounded version. I don't expect a big BA, but time will tell. I liked what he did in his limited AFL.
MILLER, fair or not, reminds me of JJ Hardy. A guy who may not have any single skill that is outstanding, but the ability to do everything well. He's a LONG WAY away, but can't wait to see what he does. Draft status and potential, I'm OK with him here.
ENLOW shouldn't be penalized for his surgery. The ceiling remains high and he's still young. Hopefully he gets a few IP at the end of 2022 to get ready.
WINDER should be a couple spots higher, IMO, but it's a testament to current depth that he's here. Decades of watching the draft, prospect lists, and MLB in general has taught me that unless you have the #1 pick in a year where a Clemmons or a Strasburg falls in your lucky lap, you NEVER draft an ACE. You draft and develop arms and their potential. And despite all the coaching you can give, an ACE is someone who also learns and develops on their own. Winder has front of the rotation potential. It may take a couple of years to reach his potential, but I think he pitches for the Twins in 2022. I think he has a good ceiling.
CAVACO wasn't a mistake pick, but I wouldn't rank him this high. He is young, a late bloomer with trajectory when drafted, and has all the tools in the world. And like everyone else, he missed a full season. But I still need to see a little more from him to rank him this high. BUT, I would remind readers that he got off to a solid start in 2021 and was amongst the best bats/producers for a poor offensive Ft Myers team before an injury slowed him down. It's all up to him. The talent is there. I would be surprised if he doesn't start 2022 in low A despite some young options behind him. But would be pleased and not surprised if his talent took over and he hit A+ quickly.
PETTY, to me, was an absolute gift. I know HS arms are the biggest guess/risk/reward possibilities for a 1st round selection. But I don't recall many times when I've seen a HS pitcher with an arm who throws high 90's consistently and touches 100 with a quality slider and a change that needs work but was still ranked a 50 on the scout scale. Hey, he's young and has a lot to show and work on and improve. He's a long way away. But to slide to the 20's confuses me unless it's because he's not 6' 2"+ and already over 200lbs and played in a northern climate for the most part. LMAO when I read a comment elsewhere that he projects as a BP arm when he's only 18yo and has so much ahead of him.
CANTERINO just needs the baseball gods to give him health for 2022. So much for the Twins not drafting a pitcher high. They babied him his 1st season because of his IP in college. Makes sense. He was as advertised in his brief 2019. And he was again in his short 2021 after missing 2020. I believe his plan was to jump to AA quickly before injury happened. A curse for many arms, not just the Twins. His stuff is electric,though needing refinement. Some say his delivery screams BP. He says he's had the same delivery for years and feels comfortable with it. IDK! But if he's healthy and ready to go, he needs to be at Wichita from day one. He could be anywhere from a #1-2 SP to the next Nathan if starting just doesn't work out. 
SWR has been regarded as a top 100 prospect for a couple of years now. He was not only young for AA but had his whole season disrupted by the Olympic experience. Just give the kid a chance to settle in. The stuff plays. I wouldn't be surprised if he appears in 2022 at some point.
DURAN.......just be healthy. STOP the "let's just put him in the pen" conversation. I don't care if he sits in ST Paul for the whole year! Just let him stretch out, build innings, work on his stuff, and let him develop. Don't waste an opportunity to develop a potentially great arm.
RYAN...just keep doing what you're doing kid. Keep the bulldog in you but don't be stubborn. Keep listening and learning.
MIRANDA just needs opportunity. He is not a flash. He is a high draft choice who everyone has just been waiting to put it together. He has now. He was a high pick with potential, not some flier. Either make room for him or make him the 1st guy up when there is an opening. And depending on trades  or injury, he could make the opening day roster. Like I said in another OP, he COULD see time at LF or 1B depending on final roster construction. 
BALAZOVIC is everything I said about Winder. The stuff and the build and everything you want. But what you want is just a little more time to put it together. 
MARTIN is PROBABLY a stud LF/CF who can also play in the infield to follow the example the versatility of the Dogers that I feel the FO is looking at. But I'd keep playing him at SS for as long as I can. I mean, what's the worst that can happen? He suddenly turns out to be an optio there or he can at least cover that spot in addition to maye 2B/3B. 
LEWIS IS  a lightening rod of sorts.  He has EERYTHING athletically to be a decent to good SS. When you watch him, you see great plays that few can make and you see smoothness, and his potential. We just need to see it daily. But it takes time. He's lost a lot of time, unfortunately. And he's NOT going to jump to the ML level without a little time to get his legs underneath him, literally, for defense AND offense,  despite his AFL MVP and reports about his 2020 play at the alternative site. This kid just might have the IT factor. Let's allow a tiny bit of time, OK?
Pissed about the FO and things we don't have a clue about for2022 yet, just look at this list and get excited. 
 

It's certainly impressive to see the Twins with all this top-end SP in the high minors. They will likely have 4 SP in the BA Top 100.
That's roughly 10% of the top SP prospects in MLB play for a Twins affiliate.
Bullish.