Dman

I didn't say the strategy works, lol. It's what Falvey has seemingly been banking on, though. It really feels like Falvey has a viewpoint that pitchers are nothing more than mechanics. Gives me hope I could throw a 90mph fastball and an 80mph slider on that fast pitch booth setup outside baseball stadiums with a couple mechanical adjustments lol.

Yeah I don't disagree that their strategy is to take arms later but other than Winder has there been much success there?  Certainly no top of the order success.  The interesting thing to me is the one year 2021 when they take a pitcher in rounds 1-3 they all became important pieces in the trades they made.  While I get picking pitchers is risky they have enough bats that they should take more risk early on in the draft.  If not to develop then to at least trade based on the greater potential those arms have.
Not having that third round pick kind of hurt this draft IMO but I didn't see all these trades coming either.  It is just hard not to see much mid to top rotation starters in the system right now.

I feel like the Twins may have been a dark horse for Rocker in an attempt to replace Petty. I don't know why I felt that way, I just really did.

I think there are a couple reasons the Twins drafted the way they did. First, I think there's no way they could pass by Brooks Lee. I mean, that was a gift to a club like the Twins who value everything Lee brings to the table. After that, elite pitching is just going to be very hard to find. Second, the front office has definitely had a trend of drafting lower ranked pitchers and trying to transform them into legitimate high end prospects through mechanical changes. They seem to believe there is a opportunity there.

I was hoping they were going to go a bit more pitcher heavy in the 2022 draft.  Other than Prielipp I don't see anything that really pops out.  Hopefully Morris is worth his 4th round slot money.  Other than possibly Lewis it looks more like bullpen arms than starters so pitching could be a challenge in the future.  I am betting they go pitcher heavy in 2023.
For next year the Twins are really going to be banking on Sands, SWR, Canterino, Balazovich, Enlow and Henriquez to have bounce back seasons or they have nothing worth while at the top of the farm system.  Varland has been solid but far from elite IMO and Headrick has yet to adjust to AA.  Festa looks great against righties but he needs to find something more for lefties and while he has been a rock on the mound with his slight frame I wonder if he is better as a reliever.  
You have to drop down to A ball and below to get excited about Raya and maybe Nowlin. We haven't seen what MacCleod can do yet but hoping his arm comes back strong from TJ.  Laras looks like he could be something but is still in the DSL.  The Twins need the pitchers at the top to step up and start knocking on the big league door otherwise it looks like there will be a gap in the pitching pipeline.
Hitting prospects still looks good me.  I think you have Miller too high. Rodriquez is way better all the way around. Not even close IMO.  I like Miller just not that high but could you imagine a future infield with three switch hitters in Miller, Severino and Lee?  That could be pretty cool.  
I think some guys that could be on this list our Isola who has been forgotten due to injury but was having a really good year with the bat until then.  Aquiar is similar to Rosario with power, almost no walks and ton of K's but better contact skills with an OPS of .884 at low A where average OPS is in the 700's. Rucker has been on fire although in SSS at high A but definitely someone to watch. Jose Rodriguez who currently has a 1.007 OPS in the DSL is another bat to watch not to mention a pretty bat heavy draft with 4 of the first 6 picks going to hitters.  With two interesting hitting catchers at picks 11 and 12.  
We'll have to wait and see what the 2022 class can do but we could use some diamonds in the rough now that the top of the 2021 draft has been picked over.

Wow! That list doesn't show well for 2022 help from the minors.
1 Royce Lewis - out for 2022
2 Brooks Lee - draftee
3 Noah Miller - project, needs to develop offense
4 E Rodriguez - out for 2022
5 Prielipp - draftee
6 A Martin - huge regression
7 SW Richardson - maybe can help this season?
8 Balazovich - huge regression
9 Marco Raya - looks great, in low minors
10 Edouard Julien - hopeful, but not at a position of need (currently)
And these are the top ten on the list. 
Trading away the splendid 2021 draft class looks potentially devastating to this list. I sure hope the 2022 Brooks Lee, Connor Prielipp class is as good as advertised!

Nice writeup. I'm more bullish on Woods-Richardson and Wallner and a little less so on Miller, but it feels like the Twins system is now a "depth" system where differences between #5 and #15 can be negligible.

Really good point Ashbury. And to Roco's credit, the players seem to be able to put the team goals ahead of personal goals. That gets tricky sometimes, but this years Twins, led by veterans, Correa, Buck, Urshela, Gray and Archer, seem to have a "team first" attitude, which I thoroughly enjoy. Now, Rocco, about bunting and advancing those runners with less than 2 outs and hitting against the shift, may I humbly suggest there are some strategic changes which could produce more runs at critical times.

The weakest hitters on our current major league squad are just barely below league average, and none except maybe Miranda when he's at third seems like an absolute butcher on defense.  So whoever sits for a given game is a capable substitute if the need arises.  That relatively high "floor" does seem like an underappreciated asset.

I think the pitchers are harder than the batters. No Arcia didn't make it, but the Twins had a bunch of hitting prospects at that time with Arcia, Rosario, Sano, Vargas, Santana, Kepler and Polanco all debuting 2013-15. Overall, that was a pretty solid group. 
The pitchers seem to be more flakey, though they seem to be a bit more predictable with the current front office. I think towards the end, Terry Ryan understood his biggest flaw with his pitchers was that he historically struggled to get guys with velocity and strikeout ability. He tried to correct that with the Romero, Gonsalves and Graterol types, but he hadn't figured out how to balance the command issues that come with those types of players. He got a good one in Berrios though.

I was big on Arcia.  In part it goes back to when he was in AA I went to a game he was playing and the ball just sounded different off his bat.  He came on the scene and looked like he could be a hitter for years.  He just never adjusted to how MLB pitchers would pitch to him.  His attitude reflected that as well when he would make comments about he was there to hit HR. 
I was really big on Stephen Gonsalves.  His early low minor numbers were great, but he just never fully developed.  

I remember once upon a time there was a Fernando Romero & Stephen Gonsalves duo as next wave of Twins SP of the future.
Prospects are really hard to predict.
(Although Byung-ho Park was not a prospect, I remember there was a lot of hype going on with the Korean slugger too)

I was fooled by Romero too. Thought for sure he was going to be a power arm out of the twins bullpen for years. Whoops! I was convinced that he just needed a little time to settle in and things would be great, that he'd shown enough as a starter that he could make the transition. Nope, nope, and nope.
The others on the list i don't think I was ever that attached to. They kinda fell into the "hey, maybe this guy can turn out to be somebody!" bucket where I was rooting for them, but not necessarily all that convinced.
Chris Parmelee, on the other hand...I jumped all over that hype train, thought he was going to take over for Cuddyer and we wouldn't miss a beat. but I'm grateful to Mr. Parmelee, who taught me to be skeptical of September call-ups and Small Sample Size.

Romero is playing in Yokohama, Japan for the past couple years where he's had mediocre results after appearing in MLB across 2 years where he struggled. Romero also looked pretty rough at AAA in 2019 where he was too hittable and walked too many guys. He just doesn't have much of a track record of success.
Sometimes players are just overhyped.

Speaking of the hype machine, Brusdar Graterol is having a solid season with the Dodgers' out of their bullpen. He hasn't turned into the starter fans were hoping he could be, or the elite closer for that matter, but he is having an above average season and adding solid value. That said, chances Graterol turns lives up to the massive hype is pretty limited.

Hahaha, I'm wrong on prospects all the time. Sometimes I think they'll be great, sometimes I think they'll flop.
The truth is, you never really know if their game plays until they start playing at the MLB level. My biggest mistake recently is I didn't have high hopes for Jhoan Duran. I felt like if MiLB hitters could lay off his stuff and take walks, MLB hitters would for sure have him figured out. Seems like Duran's struggles with walks last year might just have been the UCL or maybe he's just gotten better with control considering he's never been this good at controlling the free pass at any level.

In any case, he's walking almost nobody this year and still striking everybody out.

Nice list and really enjoyed your descriptions of how players were performing.  Also nice to see a list out of the mainstream.  I would have had Rodriguez a head of Miller mainly because his bat played so much better and looks to have star potential.  While I think Millers hit tool is going to be good he has been struggling for a while now.  Still a fun read.  Thanks!

A good list, and good arguements.
Rodriguez should be ahead of Miller, despite him being a CF/OF. Roughly the same age but was killing it before his knee injury and should be more dynamic of a bat/player.
Giving Balazovic ALL THE CREDIT for his arm and potential based on a couple nagging injuries. The ability and potential hasn't gone away.
Sands is getting untracked and looking good again. His future might be in the pen, we'll see. I'd keep he and the young Raya where you have them. Same with Festa for now. Festa may warrant being higher when the year is done. SWR is fair based on age and experience. Tons of potential, but very young and his "schedule" has been advanced and weird.
Not exactly where I'd place him, but I'd place Wallner higher. Looks like the bat may be for real and he should be at least OK in the OF.
Sorry, can't give Balazovic allowances, and Enlow...deservedly so IMO...and then downgrade Canterino. He's never been hurt until last year and now, but neither injury seems surgical. May just mean, unfortunately, he's a RP and not a starter. Disappointing if true. But he could be as good as Duran in the pen and maybe that's just, reluctantly, where he ends up. But he could be a stud there!
Shouldn't Varland be higher? Not sure who he'd bump, but I think he's better than where you have him.
HUGE fan of Povich. Is Hajjar just behind him if healthy again soon and his BB looking better?
Soularie is on the upswing and very talented, but where he should be for now. Same with Rosario. Helamn is probably right for a super-utility player. Don't apologize for Julien being fairly high and being another super-utility type at this point. The skills and talent are there!
But Sabato is out of my top 30. Cavaco is near the bottom until he sparks at some point.

Nice list and really enjoyed your descriptions of how players were performing.  Also nice to see a list out of the mainstream.  I would have had Rodriguez a head of Miller mainly because his bat played so much better and looks to have star potential.  While I think Millers hit tool is going to be good he has been struggling for a while now.  Still a fun read.  Thanks!

Nice list and really enjoyed your descriptions of how players were performing.  Also nice to see a list out of the mainstream.  I would have had Rodriguez a head of Miller mainly because his bat played so much better and looks to have star potential.  While I think Millers hit tool is going to be good he has been struggling for a while now.  Still a fun read.  Thanks!

Nice list and really enjoyed your descriptions of how players were performing.  Also nice to see a list out of the mainstream.  I would have had Rodriguez a head of Miller mainly because his bat played so much better and looks to have star potential.  While I think Millers hit tool is going to be good he has been struggling for a while now.  Still a fun read.  Thanks!

Gaetti and Hrbek were brought up way at the end of the season in '81 just so the Twins could get a look at them. That was typical in those days. The fact they started as full time players in '82 (their rookie season) is a testament to Manager Billy Gardner as well as to their talent. Gardner didn't give out "rest" days or constantly screw around with the lineup. If you made the team you played, usually one position and often the same spot in the lineup. I doubt either Hrbek or Gaetti would have gotten in over 140 games if Rocco had been their manager. More playing time means more player development when you're a rookie. Not playing regularly, in my opinion, is hampering the development of Kirilloff, Miranda and Larnach. All three should be around 70 games by the All-Star break, Larnach excepted of course, but I don't see that happening. So a smaller sample size to work from.
Anyway, the point I was trying to make is the 2022 rookies aren't doing half bad at the plate despite limited playing time and often playing out of position. 

Even if you believe the Twins are not built to compete or that they couldn't compete, there would have to be a team in the AL Central who was clearly built to lead the way, and there isn't right now.
The 1987 Twins team was mediocre and they won the World Series. It's a long shot, but until the Twins look to be well out of the division lead, Correa is not going to be traded. This is probably the 10th "Trade Correa" topic I've seen in the past couple weeks.
Aside from that, the Cardinals have an excellent value shortstop right now... Tommy Edman has 3.4 fWAR. Nolan Gorman, a 22yr old rookie is delivering big time at 2B as well. The Cardinals have no real need for Correa.

The Giants might be a legitimate destination, with Brandon Crawford struggling at the plate and moved to the 10 day IL, but Crawford has another year left at $16MM on his contract. I could potentially see a Correa for Crawford and Kyle Harrison trade or something like that. It's unlikely Correa (at $35MM and a rental) brings back great talent on his own.

I tend to agree.  Scouts are still looking for specific traits in players that they think they can build on.  They are looking for players with untapped potential.  You could argue that it is those players in those rounds where the scouts earn their money.  Everyone knows who the top 100 players are even the fans.  We don't know which guys are going to work out but for the most part the top 200 players are set except for the order they will be picked.  Not sure it takes much scouting acumen to determine those players.  Players that look like sure things in the top 100 are not all going to work out. We see it every year no matter how good the organization.  Some consensus top 10 picks are not going to work out and that is pretty much the entire industry scouting players that come up with these rankings.  So scouting and top 100 lists are never perfect predictors of success at the MLB level even when the entire industry agrees.
I agree and it is pretty much proven that the further out you get the less likely a player makes it but any players that do make it from those rounds is essentially found money and the team wasn't just throwing darts at the board on who they decided to pick.  They picked guys with specific tools and skillsets they felt they might be able to develop.  Sure most of them are not going to work but I still think you have to give credit to the organization for recognizing talent that was more deeply hidden and or had the ability to be developed.  Finding players that can play at the MLB level not even All-Star caliber players but even just a dominant relief arm has significant value to the organization so those lower picks matter IMO. 

I tend to agree.  Scouts are still looking for specific traits in players that they think they can build on.  They are looking for players with untapped potential.  You could argue that it is those players in those rounds where the scouts earn their money.  Everyone knows who the top 100 players are even the fans.  We don't know which guys are going to work out but for the most part the top 200 players are set except for the order they will be picked.  Not sure it takes much scouting acumen to determine those players.  Players that look like sure things in the top 100 are not all going to work out. We see it every year no matter how good the organization.  Some consensus top 10 picks are not going to work out and that is pretty much the entire industry scouting players that come up with these rankings.  So scouting and top 100 lists are never perfect predictors of success at the MLB level even when the entire industry agrees.
I agree and it is pretty much proven that the further out you get the less likely a player makes it but any players that do make it from those rounds is essentially found money and the team wasn't just throwing darts at the board on who they decided to pick.  They picked guys with specific tools and skillsets they felt they might be able to develop.  Sure most of them are not going to work but I still think you have to give credit to the organization for recognizing talent that was more deeply hidden and or had the ability to be developed.  Finding players that can play at the MLB level not even All-Star caliber players but even just a dominant relief arm has significant value to the organization so those lower picks matter IMO. 

I think given where things are today those are pretty objectively fair grades.  I still think Lewis ends up an A and Enlow will need more time but he should get back to B status and certainly C by the mid point next year.  I think Jeffers and Canterino can end up B's as well.  I think the grades reflect where they stand right now but I think there is solid potential for the final grade to be better than this. 
I see the rational for Steer being an A but that seems a bit high to me.  I think of an A as All Star or very near All Star caliber player but this is your criteria and that is fine.  
What you can see is that there have been a fair number of complete misses at the top of the draft.  I think your identifying the power hitting guys (Rooker, Sabato), they selected didn't work out well and Wallner was on his way to being the 3rd one not to work out but has OPS'd his way out of it for now.  Still has to make the big leagues though so far from a sure B IMO.
I really appreciate the work you put in and those are the only quibbles I have and they are minor.
 

I think your grading is a little harsh.  Endow is more of an incomplete with all the time missed.  Anyone who is a MLB regular starter should be at least a B.  Maybe give Jeffers a B - for being a crappy hitter but strong defender.  
 
The entire 2020 draft and Cavaco are the only decisions that were absolutely regrettable.  

overall great article I give it a A-