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Dman

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  1. Like
    Dman got a reaction from glunn in Jorge Polanco and The Twins   
    I guess you get more moving Polanco but looking at the numbers it seems almost better to trade Arraez rather than Polanco.  Polanco has a known cost for the next 4 years and looks to be more than worth the investment.  He has power which is a skill that has been very important to this organization.  He is a top producer who is a borderline all star player.  I just don't think this is the kind of player you give up and get better by moving.  He is the exact type of player any team would be happy to fall into as he looks like a plus defender at his position.  Has some speed. Has power and some OnBase skills. His K rate is good too.  He is the wrong player to trade at the wrong time.  You could trade him two years from now and still get a haul.
    If you want a guy to trade go with the guy with the shaky Knee's who has no power and isn't all that fast.  Who likely can be replaced by Miranda or Martin.  Heck if Gordon ups his game a little he might not be far off of Arraez's numbers.  I just don't think Polanco is the right player to trade at this time.
  2. Like
    Dman reacted to chpettit19 in Grading Falvey's Drafts   
    Ok, give Larnach 0.2 WAR. He's still outdone what 93% of that entire class will do for their entire careers. How does that earn him a C? In the schools I went to being in the top 93% was an A. That's my problem. You're not using historical data and are crushing, or at least downgrading, picks that have either done better than you're giving them credit for or haven't had nearly enough time to make any kind of reasonable assessment of. Your expectations just aren't in line with MLB draft reality. Moral of this story is 4 years isn't enough time to grade a draft pick, let alone less than a season.
     
  3. Like
    Dman reacted to chpettit19 in Grading Falvey's Drafts   
    So here's my concern. You mention it isn't uncommon for college players to reach MLB in 3-4 years, and I agree. You've used stats in the comments to show the percent of players who make it to MLB at all based on round drafted (and I'll add that it's 17.6% of all drafted players ever make the bigs). I provided data that only 83 out of the usual 1200ish players drafted in any single year (7%) ever reach at least 0.1 WAR. In their entire career, not within 3-4 years. You seem to be mixing "making it to MLB" with "establishing/doing well in MLB." If the mark is simply making it that's one thing, if it's doing well that's another. And I get that it plays into your grade of "C," but the tone of the original post and your comments following is more that the Twins are failing or that "C" isn't actually good enough. The FO has 2 draft classes that are 3-4 years removed from their draft year. Here are the results of their classes as far as who's reached MLB already and their bWAR:
    2017: Lewis, Enlow
    Rooker (-0.2)
    Barnes (-0.4)
    Ober (0.9)
    2018: Sands, WInder
    Larnach (0.9)
    Jeffers (1.1)

    So they've had 5 college guys reach MLB within 3-4 years (Jeffers 2, Rooker and Larnach 3, Barnes and Ober 4) with a pandemic year sandwiched in the middle of their development. They've had 3 guys already reach more than 0.1 WAR. 2 of those did it within 2 or 3 years of being drafted. Arguments could be made that Lewis, Enlow, Sands, Winder, and Canterino would've debuted this year were it not for injuries which would give them 10 guys to have debuted in MLB between 2 and 4 years (including 2 HS picks) of being drafted with a pandemic ruined season mixed in.
    I just think it's far too early to judge their drafting, or drafting and developing, beyond comparisons to things like MLB.com, etc. rankings that teams couldn't care less about as they're based on far less data than their internal rankings. I appreciate the the dialogue, though. Fun to have some back and forth about this stuff. I just disagree with labeling any 20 year old with less than a season's worth of ABs a near bust already, or even a college kid just wrapping up his first season. Bust is too strong of a word for me. Appreciate the effort that went into doing all this, though!
  4. Like
    Dman reacted to chpettit19 in Grading Falvey's Drafts   
    Do 2/3, 1/2, 1/3 make it within 3 years of being drafted and with a missed year of minor league baseball? Because that's what you're judging Larnach by right now. My guess would be those numbers refer to their entire careers and simply making an MLB roster at some point. I mean Drew Maggi technically made it to the majors as a 15th round pick now. This just feels like you're missing a lot of context. What number of players from the 2017, 18, 19, 20, 21 drafts have made it to the majors, how many games have they played, and how are they performing? That's what you need to compare these guys to.
    According to a baseball america article from 2019 only about 83 guys from each draft ever accumulate even 0.1 WAR. Trevor Larnach is already at 0.5 and Jeffers is at 1.1. So with a completely lost season of development and within 3 years of being drafted those 2 are already within the top 83 players of what that entire draft class will produce on average and have basically filled the Twins quota for the 2018 draft.
    According to fangraphs the chances of a top 5 pick never accumulating 1.5 WAR in their career is 60%. 6-10 is 65%, 11-15 71%, 16-20 85%, 21-25 76%, and 26-30 84%. It's more likely than not that anyone drafted, even at the top of the draft will never get even 1.5 WAR. Odds of finding someone who produces over 2.5 WAR for picks 1-5 is 11%, 6-10 is 15%, 11-15 11%, 16-20 5%, 21-25 11%, 26-30 5%. Anyone picked after pick 15 has about a 5% chance of accumulating even 2.5 WAR for their entire career. I think we need to lower the expectations for what Falvey draftees should have produced by now. I mean Jeffers has already out performed his draft position within 3 years and in the middle of a pandemic, and as stated above they've already met their quota for players who reach 0.1 WAR for the 2018 draft. What more do you want?
  5. Like
    Dman reacted to tarheeltwinsfan in Grading Falvey's Drafts   
    Kind of reminds me of "the draft" in 1963-1967, when I was in college and then enlisted in the army in 1967. That "draft" really did chose some of America's best and some not so good.  Some developed into good marching soldiers and some developed into good field soldiers. It was hard to predict who was going to be a good fighting soldier.  A lot of it just came down to doing our jobs, never quitting, looking out for each other and luck.   
  6. Like
    Dman reacted to chpettit19 in Grading Falvey's Drafts   
    I guess for me it comes down to what your expectations are. You say you're almost ready to label Cavaco and Sabato busts despite them having 1 year of professional ball under their belt. That seems incredibly aggressive to me. Cavaco has 332 total minor league ABs in 88 total games (according to MLB.com). Sabato has 361 in 107. That's less than 1 season of play and you're saying they're already likely busts? That's some tough grading right there.
    I haven't been overly impressed with their drafts (I did like the Lewis, Larnach, and Petty picks), but I don't think they've been awful (Cavaco has the athleticism that creates the type of ceiling you want with a 1st round pick and Sabato absolutely crushed some of the best college baseball talent during his 2 years in NC). If Lewis had reached the majors last year or this year as was predicted before a pandemic and freak knee injury ruined both those plans I think things look a lot different.
    In a season ticket holder Q and A Levine spoke a little to their draft strategy. They feel the data shows that getting high end, elite bats later in the draft is much harder than finding impact pitching. They feel that your best chance to get game changing hitters is to get them early and that's what they were attempting to do with the bats they took. Their approach is to go after guys with elite tools (Lewis and Cavaco) or guys who dominated college baseball (Larnach, Sabato, Rooker, Wallner, Soularie) and look like they could have game changing bats. They believe they can turn pitchers with an already elite pitch into more complete pitchers and can get those guys later. That's their approach to pitching in general, actually. Find a guy with a pitch they can already put in their back pocket (Ryan fb, Petty fb, Wisler slider, Maeda split, Pineda slider, Duran fb, etc) and then use their technology based coaching to develop more pitches (Balazovic, really good article on the athletic today about his new splitter), add velo (Ober), or improve control (hopefully improve everyone's). Now you can certainly debate if that's the correct strategy (I know it's pretty universally accepted that you take a bat over an arm if they're closely ranked as bats are more likely to turn out) or if they've executed their vision well. But I think it's important to at least take their strategy and goals into consideration.
    I also think expectations on baseball draft prospects need to be tempered to a great degree. As Dman pointed out, the success rate is miniscule. To truly evaluate any FO and their ability to draft and develop you need to compare them to every other drafted and developed player. Like is Larnach really that far behind his 2018 draft class peers? I'd argue no. There aren't a bunch of them taking the league by storm already. He's among the handful that have made it to the bigs, and none of them are world beaters yet. I wouldn't say he's the best of the bunch by any means, but he's not getting drastically outdone by the players taken after him or anything. To me it's too early to judge these drafts, or their draft and development ability at all. It's a total incomplete grade to me.
  7. Like
    Dman got a reaction from chpettit19 in Grading Falvey's Drafts   
    I like your focus on the top 100 players.  They generally have the greatest chance to make it and even a good chunk on the top 100 won't ever make it to MLB.  The grading is pretty harsh IMO but to your point they don't have a single drafted player that has been a true difference maker to this point.  You could argue Jeffers but he is more average to below than above.
    That being said the grade assumptions are very premature at this point.  There is plenty of time for those picks to work out as you stated so no need to panic just yet.
    Like you I have not been enamored with many of their choices in the top few rounds.  They almost seem to have better luck in the later rounds.  The thing with the baseball draft though is that the guys after about the top 20 all start to run pretty close to the same so it seems entirely subjective which player to take as this guy might run .001 faster than the next guy.  This guy looks stiff at the plate or always plays with red sox on.  I think the data shows us that after the first 20 to 30 picks it is pretty much take guys you like before they are gone.  There is some grading but if you watched the draft this year teams were taking guys not even on BA's or MLB.coms draft boards.  It isn't just the Twins it is all teams.
    Like I said you have the right idea to focus on the top 100 as those are the most important picks and missing on those hurts the most, but in the end we all know that any one draft of 600 or more players will only likely return 60 that make much of a difference at the MLB level.  The failure level is like 80 to 90 percent so a good chunk of these picks really don't matter too much anyway.
    I don't follow your logic in the Drafting being separate from player development.  You are drafting players based on a skill you think you can develop especially when it comes to pitchers.  They are intertwined and that is why they are often spoken of together as drafting and player development.  A 10th round draft pick developed to be better than a 1st round pick is still a good draft pick that player just exceeded expectations.  Still a good pick though in fact that pick could be considered a superior draft pick to the first round as your draft team found the proverbial diamond in the rough.
    Still your point remains that to this point this FO has not drafted well.  We do need to give them a few more years though IMO.
  8. Like
    Dman reacted to jmlease1 in Grading Falvey's Drafts   
    You're a tough grader. I don't think most fans are going to consider a C to be acceptable?
    I also think you're skipping an analytical component in this: signing status on the pick. We got Enlow because we were able to go above slot on him. Why did we have the resources available? Lewis was a guy we didn't have to go high on to get him to sign, and Rooker was signed below slot.
    but the bigger issue is you explicitly say player development is separate from drafting...but your grades seem very much tied to the player development side of things, as you evaluate these players today on their progress in the system and projection in the future. For example: Landon Leach got crushed in this analysis, but he did fine in his initial exposure to rookie ball and then got hurt/lost a season to the pandemic. (btw, he was a HS selection not a collegiate one) 
     
  9. Like
    Dman got a reaction from chpettit19 in No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky   
    I like the analysis and it makes sense but not every team is going to be able to sign the three to four elite pitchers that come out every year so 27 teams are going to miss out that is the math of supply and demand.  If it is worth it for the Twins why wouldn't it be worth it for the Yankee's, Dodgers etc? Teams that can up the anti until they can't.
    Maybe it is the owner but Falvey came from Cleveland and they never bought an ace in fact they seem to get rid of their guys once they get too expensive.  I think it will be the same mentality for the Twins.  They are going to do it from within and hope those one year deals work out more often than not.  If they get to a Cleveland like pitching pipeline then they won't spend big on pitching at all.  It will all come from the farm.
    I'm not saying your analysis is wrong but it seems like most teams in the Twins payroll range don't buy into your premise.  They seem to feel or have analysis that arms are too volatile to bank on and that on average younger arms are better than older ones.  Thus the home grown and one year prove it deals for Oakland, Tampa, KC, Cleveland, Miami, Pittsburg, Milwaukee etc..  None of those teams do what you are suggesting in fact they all avoid it. Most all of those teams are banking on building a staff of young arms and supplementing with a reasonably priced veteran on a shorter term deal.
    I like the go big or go home approach but for small market it has to hurt and mean losing other valuable players at some point.  There is more to your analysis than meets the eye IMO.  Else everyone would\could do it.
     
  10. Like
    Dman got a reaction from wabene in No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky   
    I like the analysis and it makes sense but not every team is going to be able to sign the three to four elite pitchers that come out every year so 27 teams are going to miss out that is the math of supply and demand.  If it is worth it for the Twins why wouldn't it be worth it for the Yankee's, Dodgers etc? Teams that can up the anti until they can't.
    Maybe it is the owner but Falvey came from Cleveland and they never bought an ace in fact they seem to get rid of their guys once they get too expensive.  I think it will be the same mentality for the Twins.  They are going to do it from within and hope those one year deals work out more often than not.  If they get to a Cleveland like pitching pipeline then they won't spend big on pitching at all.  It will all come from the farm.
    I'm not saying your analysis is wrong but it seems like most teams in the Twins payroll range don't buy into your premise.  They seem to feel or have analysis that arms are too volatile to bank on and that on average younger arms are better than older ones.  Thus the home grown and one year prove it deals for Oakland, Tampa, KC, Cleveland, Miami, Pittsburg, Milwaukee etc..  None of those teams do what you are suggesting in fact they all avoid it. Most all of those teams are banking on building a staff of young arms and supplementing with a reasonably priced veteran on a shorter term deal.
    I like the go big or go home approach but for small market it has to hurt and mean losing other valuable players at some point.  There is more to your analysis than meets the eye IMO.  Else everyone would\could do it.
     
  11. Like
    Dman reacted to smartfred in No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky   
    2020 FA Class
    Stephen Strasburg - 0 WAR over the last 2 seasons and probably headed for more ($245 million)
    Hyun Jin Ryu - 4.3 WAR over 2 season and $40 million = $9.3 million/ WAR with 2 years remaining and a 75% chance (due to injury) that 1 of the remaining 2 years will be lost.
    Zack Wheeler - 8.4 WAR over the last 2 season and cost $47 million which is $5.5 million per WAR. He has 2 years left so that's still a 75% chance that he will miss significant time due to injury. 
    All 3 guys would take up 20-30% of our payroll if we signed them to their current contract which would have been more if we a part of the bidding. Yikes that's a lot.
    4 seasons to gamble on 1 player is a really tough thing to do. If it doesn't work out or Tommy John surgery knocks him out for half of his contract, Ouch.
    If anything, it now makes even more sense why low market teams should continue to go after mid to low salary guys and hope they pull a Robbie Ray or Kevin Gausman out of their hat.
    Happ IMO was a good gamble since he pitched in Yankee Stadium and still had good numbers despite giving up lots of long balls.
    Moving to a pitcher friendly ballpark could have really been a sneaky great season for him but as we all know, it didn't work out.
    At least Gant is looking good! 
    Making the playoffs is the ultimate goal according to analytics. The sample size of a 1 game Wildcard or 7 game series is small enough that a weaker opponent still has a decent chance to win. (Yes... what's happened to the Twins in playoffs is extremely unlucky). 
    I don't understand the gap you're referring to as winning the WS every year versus not going to the WS in 30 years.
    It's to be expected that the Dodgers, Yankees, and other large market teams will make it.
    Look at the Tampa Bay Rays and Oakland Athletics on what they've been able to do as far as making the playoffs versus their divisional rivals.
    Boston and New York should never not make the playoffs with their salary and with how much the Angels spend, they should dominate teams like the Athletics. 
    Also, where is the ace that's on the A's or Rays? Rays don't have one! A's don't have one! 
    I really like your post though, it's a great conversation to have with fellow Twins fans!
     
  12. Like
    Dman reacted to DocBauer in Nick "Clutch" Gordon - Solidifying His Place on the Team   
    The FO or Rocco has apparently decided he can't play a decent SS at the ML level. FINE. They are far smarter and more plugged in than I am. But then why in hell have I watched him playing SS the past two ST? I'm NOT saying Polanco shouldn't be the #1 backup SS at the ML level, but why doesn't Gordon at least get a shot to see what he can do there?
    I have ZERO illusions the kid is going to go somewhere and become a high quality ML player...other than maybe at 2B for a losing team just looking for potential. But if you liked him enough to protect him, stick by him, and believe enough in his athleticism to learn CF/OF on the fly, and drop him back down to AAA with the purpose of getting AB and playing EVERYWHERE, then for goodness sake let him play at the ML level EVERYWHERE. And that includes SS. I expect no greatness but you might actually end up with an inexpensive, speedy, utility player.
    Far short of his original draft status and initial hope, but what's wrong with gaining some real value for him?
  13. Like
    Dman reacted to LastOnePicked in Nick "Clutch" Gordon - Solidifying His Place on the Team   
    I like Gordon, too. I'm pulling for him. I think he's going to play an important role on the big league club in the years ahead. He's going to learn a lot from this year and come into camp even stronger in 2022.
  14. Like
    Dman reacted to ToddlerHarmon in No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky   
    I love this. However, the conclusion to draw, IMO, is not "the FO should decide to sign guys like this", because the market reality is they can't make that decision. They have to hope the Yankees, Dodgers, et al, allow such a signing.
    The real conclusion to draw is the MLB has to make it possible for the Twins and similar teams to pursue such FAs. Whether through CBA, revenue sharing, national media contracts, or something. It is simply getting ridiculous.
  15. Like
    Dman reacted to smartfred in No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky   
    The problem I have with your list list is that you're cherry picking players that are fitting your narrative.
    For example...
    2021 FA Class of High End Starters
    Trevor Bauer - WAR - 1.7 @ 3 years for $34 million = $20 million/WAR
    Charlie Morton - WAR - 3.6 @ 1 year for $15 million = $4.15 million/WAR
    Kevin Gausman - WAR - 4.2 @ 1 year for $18.9 million = $4.5 million/WAR
    Marcus Stroman - WAR - 3.1 @ 1 year for $18.9 million = $6.1 million/ WAR
    That's it for higher end SP's for 2021
    The middle guys
    Corey Kluber - WAR - 1 @ 1 year for $11 million = $11 million / WAR
    Mike Minor - WAR - 2 @ 2 years for $18 million = $2.25 million / WAR
    James Paxton - WAR - 0 @ 1 year for $8.5 million = INF / WAR
    Robbie Ray - WAR - 3.7 @ 1 year for $8 million = $2.16 million / WAR
    Drew Smyly - WAR - .2 @ 1 year for $11 million = $55 million / WAR
    The Twins Picks
    J.A. Happ - WAR 0 @ $8 million
    Matt Shoemaker - .7 WAR @ $2 million
    The Twins have had 15 different starting pitchers in 2021. Less than 60% of SP's in the rotation will end the year with 30 starts.
    This means the Twins need at least 10 - 15 starting pitcher.
    I don't see any logic why the Twins FO will sign a SP that will cost 15-25% of the payroll and only has a 50-60% chance to make it through the entire season.
    We could have signed 2 mid tier pitchers and gambled on their success, or do what the Twins did and signed 1 mid tier pitcher and 1 low end pitcher and roll the dice.
    Unfortunately the dice roll didn't end up.
    The Twins Plan That Didn't Work 
    Sign elite defenders so mediocre pitchers have a better chance to thrive at Target Field Josh Donaldson Andrelton Simmons Buxton in CF Polonco is a + defender at 2B Keplar is a + defender in the OF Realistically the Twins made some good decisions, they just lost the dice roll. 
    Sure beats being stuck with a lost season from;
    Noah Syndergaard, Justin Verlander, Chris Sale, Luis Severino and many others....
    25% of your payroll just thrown in the trash.... that would hurt... I like the Twins strategy better.
  16. Like
    Dman got a reaction from Tim in No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky   
    I like the analysis and it makes sense but not every team is going to be able to sign the three to four elite pitchers that come out every year so 27 teams are going to miss out that is the math of supply and demand.  If it is worth it for the Twins why wouldn't it be worth it for the Yankee's, Dodgers etc? Teams that can up the anti until they can't.
    Maybe it is the owner but Falvey came from Cleveland and they never bought an ace in fact they seem to get rid of their guys once they get too expensive.  I think it will be the same mentality for the Twins.  They are going to do it from within and hope those one year deals work out more often than not.  If they get to a Cleveland like pitching pipeline then they won't spend big on pitching at all.  It will all come from the farm.
    I'm not saying your analysis is wrong but it seems like most teams in the Twins payroll range don't buy into your premise.  They seem to feel or have analysis that arms are too volatile to bank on and that on average younger arms are better than older ones.  Thus the home grown and one year prove it deals for Oakland, Tampa, KC, Cleveland, Miami, Pittsburg, Milwaukee etc..  None of those teams do what you are suggesting in fact they all avoid it. Most all of those teams are banking on building a staff of young arms and supplementing with a reasonably priced veteran on a shorter term deal.
    I like the go big or go home approach but for small market it has to hurt and mean losing other valuable players at some point.  There is more to your analysis than meets the eye IMO.  Else everyone would\could do it.
     
  17. Like
    Dman got a reaction from smartfred in No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky   
    I like the analysis and it makes sense but not every team is going to be able to sign the three to four elite pitchers that come out every year so 27 teams are going to miss out that is the math of supply and demand.  If it is worth it for the Twins why wouldn't it be worth it for the Yankee's, Dodgers etc? Teams that can up the anti until they can't.
    Maybe it is the owner but Falvey came from Cleveland and they never bought an ace in fact they seem to get rid of their guys once they get too expensive.  I think it will be the same mentality for the Twins.  They are going to do it from within and hope those one year deals work out more often than not.  If they get to a Cleveland like pitching pipeline then they won't spend big on pitching at all.  It will all come from the farm.
    I'm not saying your analysis is wrong but it seems like most teams in the Twins payroll range don't buy into your premise.  They seem to feel or have analysis that arms are too volatile to bank on and that on average younger arms are better than older ones.  Thus the home grown and one year prove it deals for Oakland, Tampa, KC, Cleveland, Miami, Pittsburg, Milwaukee etc..  None of those teams do what you are suggesting in fact they all avoid it. Most all of those teams are banking on building a staff of young arms and supplementing with a reasonably priced veteran on a shorter term deal.
    I like the go big or go home approach but for small market it has to hurt and mean losing other valuable players at some point.  There is more to your analysis than meets the eye IMO.  Else everyone would\could do it.
     
  18. Like
    Dman got a reaction from MMMordabito in Did the Twins Fleece Tampa Twice?   
    The Odo trade needs some context.  As per usual the ever payroll conscious Rays needed to move Odo and his market wasn't good.  I think we all were surprised the Twins were getting two years of Odo for a single player in A ball.  Still Palacios had potential and he is showing now what the Rays thought they were getting.  A player with a good eye at the plate who also is hitting for power that can play short.  It didn't work out for Tampa but it had decent potential IMO.  Tampa achieved what they wanted though which was getting rid of salary so in my mind they weren't really trying to "win" that trade just achieve an objective.  So it depends on how you look at these deals IMO.
    Way too early to assess the Cruz trade and again context is needed.  Tampa wasn't worried about winning the Cruz trade long term as they needed a difference maker bat for this postseason and Cruz was the best available that wouldn't hurt them salary wise long term.  Strotman was a player likely not good enough to make their 40 man next year and Ryan looks good but is a one trick pony unless his secondary's improve.  It is quite the haul for half a year of Cruz but again Tampa needed a short term asset to help them in the playoffs and they got the guy they wanted.  If he helps them win the world series then in my mind Tampa wins this trade or you could say both teams won depending on how Ryan and Strotman work out.  If Cruz fails to be the difference maker they paid for then it seems hard to see how they could "win" that trade but sometimes you have to take calculated risks and I think theirs was a good one.
  19. Like
    Dman reacted to Tim in No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky   
    really cool exercise, nice work putting this together! Definitely a great argument you have.
    But I think the issue more has to do with identifying pitching, not necessarily spending. Teams hit on lower tier free agent pitching every year, unfortunately the Twins haven't. While none of these guys are true aces, they've all pitched extremely well and could've absolutely been had this past offseason if the Twins decided to chose them.
    Anthony Desclafani - 1/6 mil  - 11-6 / 3.24 / 141 IP/ 132 SO
    Robbie Ray - 1/8 mil - 11-5 / 2.60  / 166 IP / 212 SO
    Carlos Rodon - 1/3 mil - 11-5 / 2.41 / 119 IP / 168 SO
    Taijuan Walker - 2/20 mil - 7-9 / 4.15 / 138 IP / 129 SO
    Obviously it doesn't always work out. Paxton, Kluber, Quintana, Richards, etc. all signed similar 8-12mil 1 year deals and haven't produced. I think that's just the game though with free agent starting pitching. I think a big part of teams choosing to go this route has to do with looking ahead to future free agent classes and when to allocate money to the starting rotation.
    A lot of it is luck and that goes for the mid tier category as well. It's not easy to find solid starting pitching and if you can hit on a deal like the ones listed above, why risk it. Identifying talent is the issue .. or luck. cant decide yet.
     
  20. Like
    Dman reacted to LastOnePicked in Did the Twins Fleece Tampa Twice?   
    They HAD to trade Cruz. I'm rough on this FO, but the trade seems fair and even promising. In fact, it's looking a lot better than the Berrios trade.
    These things will take a lot longer to evaluate fairly, though. And I really hope Cruz helps Tampa to a World Series championship. I respect they way they build a winning team year after year based on player development with limited payroll.
  21. Like
    Dman got a reaction from Mark G in Did the Twins Fleece Tampa Twice?   
    The Odo trade needs some context.  As per usual the ever payroll conscious Rays needed to move Odo and his market wasn't good.  I think we all were surprised the Twins were getting two years of Odo for a single player in A ball.  Still Palacios had potential and he is showing now what the Rays thought they were getting.  A player with a good eye at the plate who also is hitting for power that can play short.  It didn't work out for Tampa but it had decent potential IMO.  Tampa achieved what they wanted though which was getting rid of salary so in my mind they weren't really trying to "win" that trade just achieve an objective.  So it depends on how you look at these deals IMO.
    Way too early to assess the Cruz trade and again context is needed.  Tampa wasn't worried about winning the Cruz trade long term as they needed a difference maker bat for this postseason and Cruz was the best available that wouldn't hurt them salary wise long term.  Strotman was a player likely not good enough to make their 40 man next year and Ryan looks good but is a one trick pony unless his secondary's improve.  It is quite the haul for half a year of Cruz but again Tampa needed a short term asset to help them in the playoffs and they got the guy they wanted.  If he helps them win the world series then in my mind Tampa wins this trade or you could say both teams won depending on how Ryan and Strotman work out.  If Cruz fails to be the difference maker they paid for then it seems hard to see how they could "win" that trade but sometimes you have to take calculated risks and I think theirs was a good one.
  22. Like
    Dman got a reaction from LanceJS in Did the Twins Fleece Tampa Twice?   
    The Odo trade needs some context.  As per usual the ever payroll conscious Rays needed to move Odo and his market wasn't good.  I think we all were surprised the Twins were getting two years of Odo for a single player in A ball.  Still Palacios had potential and he is showing now what the Rays thought they were getting.  A player with a good eye at the plate who also is hitting for power that can play short.  It didn't work out for Tampa but it had decent potential IMO.  Tampa achieved what they wanted though which was getting rid of salary so in my mind they weren't really trying to "win" that trade just achieve an objective.  So it depends on how you look at these deals IMO.
    Way too early to assess the Cruz trade and again context is needed.  Tampa wasn't worried about winning the Cruz trade long term as they needed a difference maker bat for this postseason and Cruz was the best available that wouldn't hurt them salary wise long term.  Strotman was a player likely not good enough to make their 40 man next year and Ryan looks good but is a one trick pony unless his secondary's improve.  It is quite the haul for half a year of Cruz but again Tampa needed a short term asset to help them in the playoffs and they got the guy they wanted.  If he helps them win the world series then in my mind Tampa wins this trade or you could say both teams won depending on how Ryan and Strotman work out.  If Cruz fails to be the difference maker they paid for then it seems hard to see how they could "win" that trade but sometimes you have to take calculated risks and I think theirs was a good one.
  23. Like
    Dman got a reaction from DocBauer in Did the Twins Fleece Tampa Twice?   
    The Odo trade needs some context.  As per usual the ever payroll conscious Rays needed to move Odo and his market wasn't good.  I think we all were surprised the Twins were getting two years of Odo for a single player in A ball.  Still Palacios had potential and he is showing now what the Rays thought they were getting.  A player with a good eye at the plate who also is hitting for power that can play short.  It didn't work out for Tampa but it had decent potential IMO.  Tampa achieved what they wanted though which was getting rid of salary so in my mind they weren't really trying to "win" that trade just achieve an objective.  So it depends on how you look at these deals IMO.
    Way too early to assess the Cruz trade and again context is needed.  Tampa wasn't worried about winning the Cruz trade long term as they needed a difference maker bat for this postseason and Cruz was the best available that wouldn't hurt them salary wise long term.  Strotman was a player likely not good enough to make their 40 man next year and Ryan looks good but is a one trick pony unless his secondary's improve.  It is quite the haul for half a year of Cruz but again Tampa needed a short term asset to help them in the playoffs and they got the guy they wanted.  If he helps them win the world series then in my mind Tampa wins this trade or you could say both teams won depending on how Ryan and Strotman work out.  If Cruz fails to be the difference maker they paid for then it seems hard to see how they could "win" that trade but sometimes you have to take calculated risks and I think theirs was a good one.
  24. Like
    Dman reacted to LanceJS in Did the Twins Fleece Tampa Twice?   
    Sorry, but even if Ryan turns out to be at least a serviceable starter (or better) AND if the Rays win the championship, no, the Twins didn't "fleece" the Rays.  Not only is it too early to tell if Ryan will be good, it is also to early to determine if the price TB paid for Cruz was worth it, as they are going for it all this year.   And I ask the same question here that I ask with every trade - why does every trade have to end with a "loser" and a "winner" like the games?  What's wrong if both teams get what they wanted from a trade? 
  25. Like
    Dman got a reaction from wabene in Believing in Ober   
    He looked good against a tough hitting Red Sox team.  As stated in the article he has always had a good WHIP and K rate so that bodes well for his chances.  The thing I see that might make it tough for him is he seems to live up in the zone right now and once guys realize most of those pitches are not going to be strikes and he brings the ball down to make them strikes I think he could stay homer prone.  We will see if he proves me wrong.
    I think the league will adjust but hopefully he has the pitches to counter those adjustments. I think he already has faced Chicago 3 times and did better each time he faced them so maybe he is already getting there.  If he continues to do well he might end up being better than a lot of people thought he would be. 
     
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