mikelink45

I may be the only one, but this article has caused me to be somewhat anxious about the Twins' future.. Where are the superstars who are currently producing minor league super stats?

Kiriloff is the possible 1B.  Larnach has only played OF to this point.  I'm not ready to give up on Wander Javier yet.  
Sabato is a BAT.  1B is a possibility but Sano (unless traded) but I would think Kiriloff & Rooker would be better options at 1B before him. 
The interesting thing to consider is while the Twins were certainly sold on Sabato's bat they should have probably been considering Donaldson at 1B/DH in about 3 years. 
 
This is a good examination Mike.
To me, it really shows they've got nobody to take over for Buxton.
It's also why I'm disappointed we let the Rangers sign David Dahl for $3-million.   

Re: Jeffers 
 
I agree with the poster about top 3 (or maybe 4), because of the reasons he laid out. Some people had him as high as 6 last offseason, and while I agree a 26 game sample isn't enough to tell us much about his offense, what we saw from him as a catcher is less reliant on small sample size flukes. The above average defense, the team showing very high confidence in him, and the small sample of good offense in MLB is enough for me to push him above Larnach for sure.

Obviously these lists are going to be full of opinion, but wanted to address a couple of points.
 
Sabato and Cavaco are not included because of draft positioning. It's about what I've seen on them in person (Cavaco) and prior to selection (Sabato) as well as discussions I've had regarding their abilities.
 
Thorpe has an established track record of being a very good pitcher. Mentally he fell apart for the entirety of 2020. That's factored but not enough for abandonment. Enlow on the other hand has gotten rave reviews, and I've been impressed from what I've seen.
 
Interesting to move Jeffers into the top three based on a 26 G sample size in the weirdest season we've ever seen.
 
Certainly appreciate the counterpoints for sure!

Front office people went elsewhere under the Ryan regime. Kriviski went to be GM from assistant. Coaches always seem to be on the move. About the only coaches under either regime that was promoted to manager was Gardenhite and Molitor.  Levine is under consideration. That is not hired.
 
The old regime was what it was. It met the desired goals of Carl Pohlad. The added bonus what’s a competitive team. Yes they lost in the playoffs.  Over the same time period the end result was better than what the Reds or Orioles have produced. Keep in mind the core of the current team is still from the previous era

Happy Birthday, Mike! This was a lot of fun!! 

This is why Al Gore invented the internet.
 
Garver's contributions to the Twins history book in 2019 were really remarkable. I don't have my notes in front of me, but I believe he had more multi-home run games that year than any other Twins catcher had in their career. Also, I believe he had two 10-total base games that year, and no other Twins catcher had more than one in their career. 

Awesome!   Thank you.  And Happy Birthday!

Happy Birthday! Love the memories

Fantasy baseball does not equal real baseball.

Cruz and Rosario are rated highly for fantasy baseball because they hit 3 and 4 on a good offense so they rack up lots of RBIs.
 
The more important thing to look at is the OPS (on base plus slugging percentage) of the player compared to the average for their position as well as how good they are defensively. Rosario rates about average offensively for a LF and is generally considered below average defensively despite a strong arm because of lots of wild bad throws and less range than average. He also hurts the team on the basepaths with how often he gets thrown out with boneheaded baserunning decisions. 

The most similar player to Eddie statistically is Corey Dickerson, he's literally the most similar player on baseball reference, and Dickerson is a better career hitter and generally regarded as a better fielder. As a free agent last offseason Dickerson signed a 2 year 17.5M deal with the Marlins. Eddie is projected to get ~10-13 million in arbitration this year depending on how arbitration works with the shortened season. Given how little Dickerson got as a FA last year with NO COVID revenue issues as a somewhat better player to Eddie and the fact that the Twins think Kirilloff is ready to play on just a minimum salary for 600k, it makes sense for the Twins to get rid of Eddie to save that money to spend elsewhere. Since Dickerson got less than Eddie will make in arbitration this year and most teams are acting strapped for cash, very few teams will be interested in trading for Eddie when they know the Twins will almost assuredly non tender him and they can sign him for his "true market value" of 5-7 million instead.

I hope this explains why most outside observers assume the Twins will non tender Rosario.
 
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dickeco01.shtml
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rosared01.shtml

I just don't know anymore. Besides acquiring a front line ace starting pitcher, I don't see where we can improve. It becomes a chemistry or management issue.

My thoughts exactly. I put my crazy ideas in the Offseason Live Replay: Twins Offseason Blueprints comments section. Despite having Rosario lined up fourth on the list of Eddie or Miguel or Byron or Max, I kept Eddie Rosario.

"It is fun to see this ranking and I will look for other outsider views this off season. But my take away from this is that we have a good team with a lot of players ranked in the middle at their position, but other than Cruz and potential Donaldson we do not have the superstars that the great teams have. We have no one on a HOF track."
                                                                   from mikelink45
 
First, this might be a strong argument for inserting at least one (or two) of the youth into the lineup next season.
Secondly, this can also be an argument for signing a significant FA, which would require some shifting of personnel to accommodate the budget.
Finally, do the Twins make a couple of dramatic trades in an attempt to jump past their obstacle of first round playoff losses?

We are looking for a shoehorn. Cruz, Sano, Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Rooker, Kirilloff, and Larnach. Cave is a viable OF too. The Twins have five positions to allocate, a budget to consider, and two players too many. The idea of stashing Rooker, Kirilloff, and Larnach in the minor leagues no longer seems like a structurally sound plan. While only the Twins internal talent evaluations count, we have seen both Rooker and Kirilloff swing a bat already and Larnach is not a secret. Eddie Rosario has been a clear contributor for the Twins and I have not seen any dramatic changes to his talent. A three year offer to Eddie is a path forward for the Twins, as is a consideration of using him more often as a DH. This will be a tough winter for Falvine as they work through all of the roster possibilities. No matter what direction the team goes, we will miss the two players left standing when the music stops and the chairs are claimed.

Is Rosario too expensive? That seems to be the question. Can he be too expensive with a 2-3 year deal at this point, too?
 
Three of the four mentioned haven't really lived up to their potential.
 
Sano is always the elephant in the room. Do you look for a better third baseman? Do you look for a better first baseman? Is he the designated hitter the Twins need for life? Do we still shudder at the ghost of David Ortiz and fear a departing Sano will be the second coming of such a ghost. He is considre3d cheap for the current longer haul. And the ultimate, what is his worth to someone else at this point.
 
Buxton just can't stay healthy. Jeez. What a thing to be tagged with. We have seen Hunter leave. A run thru names like Span and Gomez and Revere and Hicks, most all have produced at times better than Byron. What is Byron besides a ground traveller? Does he have bigger power? Will he ever be a base stealing threat? He can go from first to home faster than anyone. The Twins managed to get that extra year, as well as cheaper hearings because of on field time. From just being in the line-up and playing a lesser field, Rosario has more worth, it seems.
 
Kepler. Man. I hated the fact that he batted leadoff in 2019 and moreso in 2020. I don't think he is a leadoff hitter, and is best placed in the lower portion of the order. He is mighty cheap, and IF he shines will have better trade value. Right now, he is more valuable to the Twins.
 
The question is where do you put Krilloff, Larnach, Rooker (and to a lesser extent names like Baddoo, Wallner, Celestino, Maciel - all of whom would probably be on par with any of our current guys in years to come). Throw in the mix the need to looks at Urbina or Soularie in the next 3-4 years. Plus, Royce Lewis could be an outfielder instead of an infielder.
 
Truth be told, I would take an option on getting Rosario signed for a team friendly 3-year-deal and move from there. I would entertain any offers for Sano or Kepler and even Buxton. Moreso hoping the value of all four of these guys will sky in 2021 and you can comfortably work in Kirilloff and Rooker with an open DH position (sorry Cruz) and Larnach later in the season, and still not hurt yourself offensively.
 
I hate the though of getting nothing for Eddie and just letting him walk. That's what we did with Ortiz - not that Eddie is Big Papi. 
 
The Twins have been lucky offensively that the team does play as a good team on the field and overall in the batting order. 2021 showed that there are weaknesses in these guys and no one, including Polanco and Arraez and Garver, are set for the longterm, but still offer team play - which is most important. No superstars, including these big four that promised so much.

The one wrinkle I didn't think about is the Royals - If Wichita gets demoted to AA, I could see Kansas City trying to take the spot, and certainly Wichita would gladly welcome them. KC even was in Wichita for AA years ago, until the Franchise itself moved to Northwest Arkansas and the Royals followed where they remain still today. 
 
NW Arkansas could then be an option for the Twins, and the geography would fit, but that would be a pretty disappointing outcome that would be a significant step down from the facilities in Pensacola. 

Nice article on a central issue for the Twins off-season / progress. It seems Sano or Kepler are the most valuable trade pieces with the most obvious replacements in-house.
 
Their contract status enhances their value - couple the return of assets they could bring with the likely production levels of Kirilloff, Larnach and/or Rooker in their place and a viable trade strategy emerges that enhances the roster.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Even after 4-5 years in the majors, players take different trajectories in their career. I have seen analysis that Eddie will not age well, I certainly don't know if that is true. It seems that being healthy in 2020, he was able to improve his overall stat line from 2019 and not many Twins were able to say that. 
 
Rosario is a free agent after this year and he plays a position where the Twins have many of their best prospects on the cusp of playing for the big team. The other three players won't be free agents until later and Buxton plays a key defensive position. Kepler and Sanó both are under contract with cost certainty. 
 
 

A very good read that presents some very intriguing perspectives.   I'm an Eddie Rosario fan, always have been, I would like to see the Twins sign him to a 1 year deal.   He's on the field so much more than any other Twins outfielder and he has been consistently productive.   I too have patches of hair that I've pulled out in frustration over his base-running miscues and errant throws when he missed the cutoff.  Overall, I like his passion for the game and the way he produces.

Great article Mike !  Still, I haven't changed my mind.  Gotta keep Buxton because he's our CF'er.  Kepler doesn't have the overall success with the bat that Eddie has, but he's a better overall player in my mind.  I've been banging the drum all off-season and will continue throughout the winter   It's time to TRADE Sano !!   
 
We have Kiriloff and Rooker who are ready and frankly will be more "consistent" offensive threats than Sano.  They will have consistently "better" at bats.
 
Eddie is the odd man out.  With Kiriloff, Rooker and Larnach he is not cost effective.  The Twins need to use the money saved from moving on from Sano and Rosario on other areas.  For Sano, Colorado and Miami would be a couple of GM's I'd be calling.  For Eddie, it's time to just let him go.  That doesn't mean we can't cheer him on while he plays for another team.  
 
However, the Twins cannot move on from Sano and Eddie AND fail to bring back Nellie Cruz.  They need Cruz in that lineup more than ever before.  If they have the courage to move on from Sano and Eddie, I think they will find a way to bring Nellie back.   

Mike, tremendous post! And really, despite endless OP's before on the front page, I'd like to see this one moved there.
 
I LOVE Eddie, even though he has made me pull my hair out many times or made me take an extra sip or two from my beverage of choice at times. I absolutely think he is a better player than given credit for at times. Like you, I've always chafed when some argue his RBI production and dismiss it as being in a good lineup and in a good spot. You still have to produce, right? And Eddie has, no doubt!
 
The problem is, with all due respect and love for Eddie, is there someone knocking on the door who could do it as well or better who is younger and cheaper?
 
We can compare Eddie and Max all day. Max is better defensively overall, younger, might have a higher ceiling, and might be better and more productive than he has been lower in the order instead of hitting #1. Also, it's really, really hard to look at the potential of Kirilloff, maybe Larnach, and NOT see better overall hitters who might not have the same "flair" but who are better overall "hitters". Power is awesome. Production is most important. Defense is really nice. But sometimes a younger player has as much or more ability to do all of that and maybe more.
 
We can't lose Eddie and Cruz in the same year. But we have, I think, at least one ready replacement for Eddie. And I think we are going to be very OK with our #1 option there. We might even be better, overall, very soon.
 
Kirilloff is going to be a stud!

I love watching Eddie Rosario play baseball!!
 
That said, Kepler and Sano agreed to the Twins long-term deals so they don't have to go year to year with them. Rosario was offered similar deals at those times (I don't know which offseason or what the offers were, of course). He chose to go year-to-year and this becomes the downside of that... though he could become a free agent in a couple of weeks and maybe end up with a long-term deal from somewhere. 
 
And Buxton has another year beyond 2021 of arbitration. If 2021 doesn't go well for Buxton, there may be a tough decision on him a year from now. 

Adding on to the comparisons:
 
Playoffs:
Rosario 6 games, .217/.250/.522 (.772 OPS)
Buxton 3 games, .167/.167/.167 (.333 OPS)
Sano 5 games, .105/.150/.263 (.413 OPS)
Kepler 6 games, .056/.320/.375 (.431 OPS)
 
Yuck. And Eddie's is with 0/7 vs the Astros!
 
I'm not all aboard the Rosario train, but he's certainly not a bad player. He should be a 1.5-3 WAR player again in 2021. I wouldn't give him a multi-year extension, but I wouldn't hate it if he was tendered. I would like to get him back if we lose Cruz, but I'm also comfortable with the future of the LF spot with Kiriloff and Larnach close to being ready.

Count me as an Eddie fan. Good job with the comparisons here and keeping it simple too. I would guess that a detailed look from every possible angle would return similar rankings. The one item that jumps out is games played. Rosario is almost always available. I have nothing to back this up but he seems to play through injuries better than others, and i am not advocating for playing while injured at all. Sometimes Eddie played when the other options didn't exist. I am wondering, like everyone else, how the team will handle roster decisions this winter. It does seem like one spot should be available for the youth, but any number of shifts can take place from trades to inability to resign Cruz. Eddie Rosario is an exciting ballplayer and I would love to see him rake again next summer.

That has been my hope. But we`ll have to wait & see