mikelink45

Now we have a weakness in prospects.  Looking at Keith Law, mlb.com and ESPN prospect rankings we have Rodriguez and Lee and the Guardians have six prospects (all in top fifty in Law's list) and none of our are pitchers.  We have cashed in on prospects now the future depends on replenishing this system. 

I found the article interesting, but it didn't really stir up any emotions for me.  Trying to figure out where MLB is going with contracts - both money and years - is really confusing.  I cannot relate to them.  

As far as building the team the weakness I see is how the team is handling its own pitcher development.  Relying on FA and a constant stream of trades just is not a good strategy in the long run.  Does it mean that we are all overvaluing the prospects and arms?  SWR, Varland, Ober, Winder, Balazovic all sounded like they have potential, but how do we use it? When do we get to see them show it?  Is Paddock really better than they are?  

In the BP we get Lopez and Pagan, but Sands and Henriquez are both nearly ready to break out  (I hope). 

Our internal extensions have some head scratching aspects.  Buxton looks like a great deal unless he breaks down.  Polanco was a good extension and I think we should have used his cost to trade him.  Kepler is not as good and the fact he has not been traded might mean other teams do not see real value in him either.  Sano was a bust and that is a real shame because the raw talent was there.  And Dobnak feels like a feel good story and good for him.  His salary might seem low in MLB, but elsewhere he is doing great and I do not expect to seem him on the Twins again.

19 minutes ago, Althebum82 said:

My confidence is low in Gallo, Lopez, and Pagan...and, sadly, "wild card" Dobnak.  But, that is a pretty short list.

I agree completely with this statement.  Those are my concerns too and I have posted numerous responses to the Gallo is a good fielder statement that Nick repeated.  Go to BR and look at his fielding WAR over the years.  1.6 accumulated over 8 years.  He might not be bad, but his prowess is overstated and does not do enough for me to overcome his Ks.

The pitching looks good except for Lopez and Pagan and if we have to count on Dobnak everything has gone off the rails.

Let's hope for health and wait for the next FO move.  Vazquez and Lopez (the starter) are the two big moves.  The trainer, like the batting and pitching coaches is hard for me to judge.

I hope Celestino comes to camp and shows he has matured over the winter.  A young player like him can change a lot between seasons and I expect that Taylor will become superfluous.  For now it is fine, but we still have at least one too many OF candidates.

This old man is bound to have nightmares now.  As Gallo's most outspoken critic this would force me to wait for the second inning before tuning in.  Give me Julien, let him be the next Arraez.  I am also of the opinion that both Polanco and Kepler should have been traded when they had peak value and I am not sure that changing the shift is going to be that much better for either of them.  I think Buxton, Correa, Miranda are locked in to the 2 - 4 positions.  Kiriloff 5th..  

So in answer to your question, without Julien I have no idea who will lead off.

The problem for Balazovic besides his meltdown, is that Winder and Ober will be first in line to fill rotation gaps and then Paddock might come in late in the year too.  Unless there is a trade it is hard to see how our rookie SP get a chance this year.  

I agree with all the notes on Julien and I am excited to see how former Twin Steer does for the Reds this year. 

Not a fan of Kepler or Gallo.  I want Larnach in OF, Kiriloff at 1B.  I know that dreaming of Gallo leaving is not going to work for me, but Kepler seems to have value that might be best recognized if he has a good spring training. Our OF list is too long. 

1 hour ago, bird said:

I get that, Mike, but that potential doesn't fade away as often as you might think when it comes to prospects as highly-rated as Martin and SWR. Some examples from 2022 of prospects in the system with reasonably comparable FV's to SWR and Martin:

Louie Varland, Jovani Moran, Cole Sands, Matt Wallner, Ronny Henriquez, Jhoan Duran, Joe Ryan, Josh Winder, Jose Miranda, and Royce Lewis. Ten players who played for the big club last year. Add SWR to the list. Oh, and Spencer Steer with Cincy.

If you look at the Fangraphs 2022 list, you'll see that 7 out of the first 10 prospects on that list made a MLB appearance, including SWR. Now, not all of them are going to be Miranda, Ryan, and Duran style successes of course. The 3 who didn't make it were Martin, who blew up the Arizona Fall League, Canterino (injured), and Balazovic, who could be a guy with potential who fades away.

Of course, a few of these prospects won't amount to much. But I think this is evidence that the chances are very very good that Toronto overpayed for a declining Berrios, who will get paid roughly $20M each year through 2028.

 

I cannot argue that Toronto is not overpaying Berrios.  Nor can I argue that we have overpaid for many arms - pitchers tend to drive the teams crazy.

13 hours ago, WhenWillWeBeatNY said:

Edouard Julien is ranked the 7th best 2nd baseman prospect by MLB.com so I think he should be higher. He hopefully will crack the top 100 prospect list as well. 

I am sure you noted, as I did that only he and Lee made it on these lists.  That is a disappointment and might show that familiarity creates a home team bias. 

I really like these two players and I think they are key to success of the team.  I would trade Farmer before Gordon.  I am with JD-Twins as a backer who does not understand the statements that diminish what they contributed.  

Not expecting it, but it would certainly be a shock to fandom.   I do think including a pitcher (Ober in your example) would be necessary as part of the package. 

Berrios had an awful year, but managed to stay in the games long enough to get 12 wins.  Martin and SWR still have to prove themselves in mlb before we can use the line "getting teams to overpay. Just as he did when he traded Jose Berrios for Austin Martin and Simeon Woods-Richardson at the 2021 trade deadline."   I see that statement a lot on TD - but it is not true yet.  The potential is there, but we have seen potential fade away before. 

I can't rank players I have not seen or read enough about.  I do think Julien is too low. 

One way to develop the pipeline is to leave a space in the rotation for a prospect to move in and prove himself.  I like this rotation, but the list of prospects is a waiting room for injuries.  Good luck - we have pared down the really tradeable prospect list now unless we are looking to trade our own pitchers (I know we already did with Petty).  Trading our veterans when their is a replacement is a better system.  
 

Arraez was my favorite, but trading him was the right thing to do.  We should have traded Kepler and Polanco when their value was greater. 

If we win this year the strategy will be worth it.  If we are 500 again it is not. 

The blank ballots do not bother me.  They said that they did not think any of the players on the list were truly hall worthy.  It is their right.  If it kept someone from getting elected it accomplished what they wanted.  

No other sport has as much attention for the HOF.  I know nothing about Hockey and Soccer and seldom see anything written about them.  Football has a flood of players every year and the linemen wait while everyone is excited by the WR and QBs.  Basketball is the craziest.  Nice that they recognize the sport over the whole world, but our reporters only talk about the NBA players and there is a low bar for them to cross.

But BB has a unique system that gets a lot of publicity because fans are mad, the writers have to decide how a player ranks all-time.  For me Rolen would have been my only choice too.  

The badboys - Bonds, Clemens, Jackson, and Rose have gained my recognition by not being elected than they would if they had been put and in then we moved on.  Of course other badboys - McGwire, Sosa, Palmeiro don't even get that pub since they have this foursome in front of the line.

Mauer will get in and if it takes a few years that is fine.  I listened to the interview with Billy Wagner on MLB.com and enjoyed it.  He keeps waiting and has learned how to handle the situation.  

I know that without injury there would be no question of his induction as a catcher.  But catcher is not a position that has a lot of inductees.  It is a hard position to judge.  But if they concentrate on his years behind the plate he is in.  

What I do not understand is the flood of RP that have made it in.  Since Rollie Fingers there are more RP than any other position.  

But in the long run, just as I could not make a one sentence response, MLB gets a lot of press from a system that creates both fanfare and frustration and that is to their advantage.  In the long run it does not matter. 

4 minutes ago, PatPfund said:

I'm probably not as down on the team as @mikelink45, but probably like him, I'd rather see some actual regular season games played (like 100+ of them) before I'm taking seriously any comparison to past teams that have played a full year.

We probably haven't even the last of the trades (no way the Twins should be carrying this many OFs on the 40-man, and please, can we sign Fulmer before we have to trade another prospect for him at the deadline?), which might be a better preseason topic than a 'retrospective' comparison of the unplayed '23 season to years past.

I am not as down on the team as you might think.  I just do not like promoting the team before the season begins.  Remember how we were going to win the division at All Star last year.  Well I do not like Gallo and I am very outspoken because I keep seeing comments I cannot agree with.  If he performs well (hits at least 220) I can take it, but I like the idea of Larnach and Buxton in the OF - Kepler not so much.  Taylor is good for the bench, but he is no longer as elite as his field once was and his bat is no better than Celestino. If we want to have a free swinger I prefer Wallner at DH. 

I like Kiriloff's promise, but like Larnach he has not been on the field enough to count on - same with Lewis.  

I think Polanco is a good trade candidate like Kepler.

I prefer Gordon over Farmer.  

I like Vasquez and wonder why Jeffers has not advanced.

The starting rotation is the best we have had in a long time, but we are always waiting for the surgeon's knife and I want to see some young arms succeed for the future of the team.

In the BP I am really down on Pagan and the new additions do nothing for me, but I do like Duran, Thielbar, and Alcala and I hope we fill the pen with young arms like Canterino.

And Correa is great, but not enough to get us to the series.

Hopefully you can see that like the Twins last year I am at 50/50, but I think there is a chance to move up quickly if health is present. 

I have posted this elsewhere, but I  have to repeat because I am tired of hearing what a great OF Gallo is -  last year according to BR - as a Yankee he 0.1 Offensive WAR and -0.4 defensive WAR.  As a Dodger he had -0.3 Offensive WAR and 0.2 defensive WAR.  

His Defensive WAR for 8 years was 1.6 - an average of 0.2.  

This is a promotional piece and I am not buying it.  Let's see the outcomes.  Polanco is past his peak, the OF is filled with what ifs, Miranda has to get past the Sophomore slump and prove he can field at 3B.  Correa is great, but his good season last year could not save us from under 500.

Mahle, Maeda, Paddock, Gray all have to stay healthy. 

Pagan is still in the BP.

Kiriloff has to stay healthy, Buxton has to stay healthy, Larnach needs to stay healthy.

Someone has to get on base and it won't be Gallo.  

Jeffers has been below par for two years and with the new larger bases his arm is going to be tested.  Vasquez is a good, but not great catcher. 

I look forward to the new season, but let's not go overboard on projections and comparisons.

It pains me to see any comparison of Gallo and Arraez - there is the reason so many of us have less passion for the game than we used to. 

He has lost his place in the pecking order and before we can put him in the BP or SP he has to demonstrate that last year was a fluke - and that happens in AAA.

1 hour ago, vulturepaj said:

Gallo is exceptional in RF, on par with Kepler and holds TWO Gold Gloves.

Rtot/yr -- Total Zone Total Fielding Runs Above Avg per 1,200 Inn
The number of runs above or below average the fielder was worth per 1,200 Innings (approx 135 games).
This number combines the Rtz, Rdp, Rof, Rcatch numbers into a total defensive contribution.
See the glossary section for a more complete explanation.
Provided by BaseballProjection.com

Below is the career Rtot/Yr at each position for Twins Position Players

Player	Pos	G	Rtot/yr
Alex Kiriloff	RF	35	5
Alex Kiriloff	LF	34	(25)
Alex Kiriloff	1B	47	7
Arraez, Luis	2B	169	0
Arraez, Luis	3B	79	(7)
Arraez, Luis	1B	65	13
Arraez, Luis	LF	48	(8)
Buxton, Byron	CF	542	15
Carlos Correa	SS	881	7
Celestino, Gilberto	CF	112	(2)
Celestino, Gilberto	LF	29	32
Celestino, Gilberto	RF	10	35
Christian Vazquez	C	681	11
Farmer, Kyle	SS	235	2
Farmer, Kyle	3B	86	(2)
Farmer, Kyle	2B	63	14
Gallo, Joey	LF	284	0
Gallo, Joey	RF	209	31
Gallo, Joey	1B	96	2
Gallo, Joey	CF	56	1
Gordon, Nick	LF	73	(3)
Gordon, Nick	CF	72	(4)
Gordon, Nick	2B	53	(2)
Gordon, Nick	SS	31	(23)
Jorge Polanco	SS	501	(9)
Jorge Polanco	2B	222	0
Kepler, Max	RF	700	16
Kepler, Max	CF	159	(6)
Larnach, Trevor	LF	93	(9)
Miranda, Jose	1B	77	(1)
Miranda, Jose	3B	34	(15)
Ryan Jeffers	C	168	(4)

 

 last year according to BR - as a Yankee he 0.1 Offensive WAR and -0.4 defensive WAR.  As a Dodger he had -0.3 Offensive WAR and 0.2 defensive WAR.  

His Defensive WAR for 8 years was 1.6 - an average of 0.2.  

1 hour ago, dex8425 said:

Defensively Gallo is excellent. Dude can run, and has an absolute rocket launcher for an arm. I watched him in Texas quite a bit. 

I just do not understand how everyone is working to rationalize Gallo.  last year according to BR - as a Yankee he 0.1 Offensive WAR and -0.4 defensive WAR.  As a Dodger he had -0.3 Offensive WAR and 0.2 defensive WAR.  

His Defensive WAR for 8 years was 1.6 - an average of 0.2.  

1 hour ago, vulturepaj said:

Gallo is exceptional in RF, on par with Kepler and holds TWO Gold Gloves.

Rtot/yr -- Total Zone Total Fielding Runs Above Avg per 1,200 Inn
The number of runs above or below average the fielder was worth per 1,200 Innings (approx 135 games).
This number combines the Rtz, Rdp, Rof, Rcatch numbers into a total defensive contribution.
See the glossary section for a more complete explanation.
Provided by BaseballProjection.com

Below is the career Rtot/Yr at each position for Twins Position Players

Player	Pos	G	Rtot/yr
Alex Kiriloff	RF	35	5
Alex Kiriloff	LF	34	(25)
Alex Kiriloff	1B	47	7
Arraez, Luis	2B	169	0
Arraez, Luis	3B	79	(7)
Arraez, Luis	1B	65	13
Arraez, Luis	LF	48	(8)
Buxton, Byron	CF	542	15
Carlos Correa	SS	881	7
Celestino, Gilberto	CF	112	(2)
Celestino, Gilberto	LF	29	32
Celestino, Gilberto	RF	10	35
Christian Vazquez	C	681	11
Farmer, Kyle	SS	235	2
Farmer, Kyle	3B	86	(2)
Farmer, Kyle	2B	63	14
Gallo, Joey	LF	284	0
Gallo, Joey	RF	209	31
Gallo, Joey	1B	96	2
Gallo, Joey	CF	56	1
Gordon, Nick	LF	73	(3)
Gordon, Nick	CF	72	(4)
Gordon, Nick	2B	53	(2)
Gordon, Nick	SS	31	(23)
Jorge Polanco	SS	501	(9)
Jorge Polanco	2B	222	0
Kepler, Max	RF	700	16
Kepler, Max	CF	159	(6)
Larnach, Trevor	LF	93	(9)
Miranda, Jose	1B	77	(1)
Miranda, Jose	3B	34	(15)
Ryan Jeffers	C	168	(4)

 

Sorry, my eye test says we have a fielding analytic that is off the rails.  A corner OF fielding has never been as important as his bat.

1 hour ago, vulturepaj said:

Did we just see Luis Arraez' best year?  Highly probable. 

Can he make up any decline in hitting by presenting on defense?  Certainly not.  He was horrible at 2b/3b and hideous in LF. 

Does he look like a 1B to you?  Does he feel like a DH to you?  9 HR in his career year... is that going up from here?  

Does Alex Kiriloff look like a 1B to you?  He sure does.  Do Wallner or Larnach (and others) seem like possible quality DHs to you?  Yep.

Has the league seen Pablo Lopez' best year yet?  Quite probably not.

The Twins sold on the probable top-tick of Arraez' career and even got the extra fan headline juice that comes with the Batting Title.

Arraez is a solid player.  I don't believe the intention should be to plan for and pay "solid" players.  Rather, seek out and try to develop exceptional players.  Kiriloff may be that at 1B.  Lopez may be that at SP.  

And we got two more dart throws for the future in the deal.

If Royce can transition to 3B and play average defense there (seems plausible), Miranda will move to primary DH. You have this type of defense then (assuming Kepler stays):

C - Vasquez/Jeffers -- Above average

1B - Kiriloff -- Average?

2B - Polanco -- Average.

SS - Correa - Exceptional

3B - Royce - Average

LF - Gallo/Taylor - Exceptional

CF - Buxty/Taylor - Exceptional

RF - Max/Gallo - Exceptional

In very smart fashion and in such a way that previous front offices wouldn't have tried, Falvey has shown great creativity and foresight.  Great move.

I am fine with your analysis until the OF - Gallo and exceptional does not compute.  

I like the rotation, but I am hoping that when one or two go down we will see the young arms move into the rotation and stay there.  That is the future.  The BP can jettison the Pagan types and fill it with young arms to give them ML experience.  Relying on trades just reduces your youth.  Trading players when they have value to get good return and that is what they did with Arraez.  Have we waited too long for Polanco and Kepler?  Will we end up trading Gray or extending? 

Trade a player a year too early rather than a year too late. - Branch Rickey

I think we need four more OF.  In fact lets set a new standard and play Correa, Vasquez and 7 OF each game.  There has to be a trade with this surplus, although we need to old on to someone when Gallo drops is BA below 100 and his K rate soars to new levels. 

I am glad so many like this - it leaves me shaking my head.  Is he really better than Celestino?  I do not think so.  I wanted to see Celestino continue to progress.  Taylor is at his peak. 

In all I like it better than signing Gallo.  But Taylor's bat brings nothing.