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specialiststeve

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    specialiststeve reacted to TopGunn#22 in Blueprint for the Future after Cruz   
    Interesting take Mike.  One small change:   I would include Garver as someone I wouldn't trade, but if we have Steve Garvey to play 1B I'd hang on to that guy !     
    I actually like the look of the pitching staff you've laid out for next year, but there's something missing:  If we trade Berrios we need to include some kind of guess as to who replaces him in the deal coming back.  Thor would be a FA acquisition, not somebody we would get back in a deal for Jose.  I believe that for the Twins to be "competitive" next year their pitching staff needs to be rebuilt.  Both SP's and RP's.  Let's assume we sign Thor to a FA contract.  He's coming back from TJ so this next season is quite a gamble to see how he does.  Still, it's worth the gamble.  We retain Maeda and possibly Pineda (it remains to be seen WHAT we could get in a Pineda deal) and MLB Trade Values puts him at -.70 for a value.  We're better off keeping him.  Balazovic will certainly be a strong possibility and Ryan REALLY intrigues me.  But what could we get for Berrios ?  If we traded him to the pitching desperate Padres we could see a return of LHP Ryan Weathers, who at 21 years old has impressed me in two separate games I watched him pitch (he's been on the IL lately but appears to be ready to start on 7/30 for the Padres vs. the Rockies) and once top pitching prospect LHP Mackenzie Gore.  Berrios has a value of 40.8. Weathers is 19.4 and Gore 17.5 (36.9 total).  So you can see that the Padres might even need to include something else to even things out.  Personally, I'd take this deal as is.  The Twins save not having to pay Berrios next season and in the future.  And they have Weathers on MLB minimums for several season as well as Gore.  THAT frees up money to be spent on a true closer like Rosenthal or Yates for next season as well as looking at possibly bringing Cruz back.  In my  GM world there is no way I'm continuing with Sano.  I trade him now before the deadline or more likely this winter.  I'm done with him.  I look to add a 4th outfielder who can play all three positions and hit a little.  He's my insurance for Buxton going down.  I realize you just simply can't replace Buck when he's hurt, but you can't just fall off a cliff without him either.  
    So now here's what I have to choose from for starting pitching:  Thor, Weathers, Gore, Maeda, Ryan, Balazovic,  maybe Pineda and Dobnak.  That's tremendous depth.  I should also include Strotman who we just acquired in the Cruz trade with Tampa Bay.  He's at AAA and is very close to MLB ready.  If I add a real closer (Rosenthal, Yates, ??) and retain Rogers and Duffey with Alcala and possibly someone like Edwar Colina next season I have a pen that could work.  
    The Twins lineup needs to be done with rally killers like Sano and needs a consistent bat like Cruz.  If we can't get Nellie to come back, then I would look to add a good bat.  Someone like Nick Castellanos.  He could play some OF, DH and maybe he or Garver could play some 1B.  But the Twins would need to do SOMETHING to replace the excellence and consistency of Cruz, and with Castellanos a FA I think his bat would do quite well batting 3rd or cleanup.  
    I could see going one more year with Polanco at SS and Arraez at 2B so I can gauge what we have with Lewis.  It's not the best up the middle "D" but if both Polanco and Arraez HIT like their capable we could get by.  
    If we don't trade Berrios to the Padres for that package, the pitching hurting Dodgers are interesting.  LA just won their first World Series since 1988 in a 60-game season.  The pressure is on to repeat.  They have Bauer in trouble, Kershaw on the IL and are stumbling and bumbling.  No one does LESS with more than Dodgers skipper Dave Roberts.  The Dodgers are loaded with prospects.  You could trade them Berrios for Dustin May (a great young pitcher out for the season with TJ) and have your choice of several other intriguing Dodgers prospects.  The Dodgers need pitching NOW.  Maybe despite the fact they are always madly in love with their prospects they will feel the pressure to move some of those prospects because their rotation is in tatters and their BP has blown 3 games in row.  Berrios and Taylor Rogers could bring back a TON.
    We have about a week for all this delicious trade speculation before the deadline and then all winter as well.  Can the Twins FO navigate this to their advantage or do they crash the good ship Twins on the rocks, sending everyone into a raging sea of despair??  We'll just have to wait to find out.
  2. Like
    specialiststeve reacted to DocBauer in Are the Twins Preparing a Big Surprise?   
    A high quality team, a wide open window of contention, a fairly young roster, a quality system that should provide additions and maintained success and opportunity, I take a contrary opinion in regard to a SINGLE big splash. In MY opinion, the Twins are indeed circling, as stated. But MY OPINION is they are looking at a series of moves WITHOUT cutting payroll, or only doing so slightly.
     
    $50M dollars does a LOT to add to the OVERALL team vs a SINGLE splash. You want the most bang for your buck, but how about Cruz, 3 pen arms, a pair of 10th/11th bench pieces and a quality rotation add with a flier for another?
     
    Think:
     
    Cruz: $15M
    Oddoorizzi: $13M
    Hand/Henricks: $9M
    Clippard/Soria: $6M
    Hernandez/Frazier: $9M
     
    And I'm just spitballing some numbers and names as the FA class is DEEP, and there will most certainly be some bargains available late. Especially in the pen and 5th SP types.
     
    So a splash may not necessarily mean ONE GUY, but rather just being smart and aggressive and not cutting payroll.
  3. Like
    specialiststeve got a reaction from jud6312 in Kenta Maeda Trade V2 - How The Twins Struck A Better Deal   
    Not sure I agree.... V1 we gave up one prospect and got who we wanted. Clean crisp. 
     
    V2 we give up same top prospect ... a quality depth player that can handle Of and 1B as well as a high draft pick... in return for same guy ... a catcher with a poor minor league record and cash. 
     
    I would rather have the pick back and Raley. 
     
    If the catcher had been a quality arm that was in a ball... maybe okay but prefer V1
     
    Glad we got our guy though.... 
     
     
  4. Like
    specialiststeve got a reaction from DannySD in Kenta Maeda Trade V2 - How The Twins Struck A Better Deal   
    Not sure I agree.... V1 we gave up one prospect and got who we wanted. Clean crisp. 
     
    V2 we give up same top prospect ... a quality depth player that can handle Of and 1B as well as a high draft pick... in return for same guy ... a catcher with a poor minor league record and cash. 
     
    I would rather have the pick back and Raley. 
     
    If the catcher had been a quality arm that was in a ball... maybe okay but prefer V1
     
    Glad we got our guy though.... 
     
     
  5. Like
    specialiststeve reacted to howieramone2 in Trade Market Calling for the Twins   
    No team in baseball is going to pay anywhere near 96M for Price. We can afford to wait the Sox out. If we offer 3 years for 10-12 per, the Pohlads may bite.
  6. Like
    specialiststeve got a reaction from David HK in Minnesota Twins: A Case for Matt Harvey?   
    I had mentioned him several different times in the low risk - high reward category. I would say if he would accept a minor league deal do it today. Am guessing most of these guys that are in his category they are looking for major league deals so it may be a while before we sign the depth guy in this type of deal. 
  7. Like
    specialiststeve got a reaction from billyp4444 in Minnesota Twins: A Case for Matt Harvey?   
    I had mentioned him several different times in the low risk - high reward category. I would say if he would accept a minor league deal do it today. Am guessing most of these guys that are in his category they are looking for major league deals so it may be a while before we sign the depth guy in this type of deal. 
  8. Like
    specialiststeve got a reaction from Patrick Wozniak in The MLB Statcast Case for Marwin Gonzalez as the Minnesota Twins Everyday Third Baseman   
    I am on board with Gonzalez playing third if we don't get Donaldson. Playing the utility roll and not knowing where or if you are playing any particular day is not conducive to getting any flow at the dish. I think he would likely put up 25 HR and hit 250 which would be respectable.... given the other choices I think he would be fine there. 
  9. Like
    specialiststeve reacted to Patrick Wozniak in The MLB Statcast Case for Marwin Gonzalez as the Minnesota Twins Everyday Third Baseman   
    But who can do that? If the Twins are able to sign Donaldson, great, but outside of him I'd rather just slide Sano over to first than sign any of the other remaining options. Minnesota still would have a really good lineup and Gonzalez's bat should be around league average. As the season moves on someone like Kirilloff (1b) or Lewis (3B) could emerge and send Gonzalez back to a utility role anyway.
  10. Like
    specialiststeve got a reaction from Brandon Warne in It's Time To Catch Up, The Twins Rebuild Is Over   
    Interesting article. Had the pleasure of interacting with Brandon Warne on Pro Sports Daily for years before he hit  the big  time... good for him. He was always pretty thoughtful in his assessment. You both seem to be on the same page.
     
    I agree but also do think that stating the rebuilding is semantics at best.
     
    The reality is that this team "is" rebuilding. We are rebuilding or building how ever you want to categorize it with young players that need time to "figure" it out. I believe and hope that Sano, Polanco, Buxton, Vargas, Barrios and the plethora of young power relief arms will get there in '17 but all are young and still are going to have some growing pains. That is reality. We have the  "framework" there but still have work to do to have the finished product ready to contend for championships.
     
    Maybe we are on the same page and this time next year after competing for a wildcard spot this year will make some larger moves but I would tend to believe that it will be closer to '19 or '20 when the kids are grown up.
     
    That may not be acceptable but finding out who the core players are going to be before spending for accessories would make more sense. Maybe we just have different timelines.
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