vulturepaj

Did we just see Luis Arraez' best year?  Highly probable. 
Can he make up any decline in hitting by presenting on defense?  Certainly not.  He was horrible at 2b/3b and hideous in LF. 
Does he look like a 1B to you?  Does he feel like a DH to you?  9 HR in his career year... is that going up from here?  
Does Alex Kiriloff look like a 1B to you?  He sure does.  Do Wallner or Larnach (and others) seem like possible quality DHs to you?  Yep.
Has the league seen Pablo Lopez' best year yet?  Quite probably not.
The Twins sold on the probable top-tick of Arraez' career and even got the extra fan headline juice that comes with the Batting Title.
Arraez is a solid player.  I don't believe the intention should be to plan for and pay "solid" players.  Rather, seek out and try to develop exceptional players.  Kiriloff may be that at 1B.  Lopez may be that at SP.  
And we got two more dart throws for the future in the deal.
If Royce can transition to 3B and play average defense there (seems plausible), Miranda will move to primary DH. You have this type of defense then (assuming Kepler stays):
C - Vasquez/Jeffers -- Above average
1B - Kiriloff -- Average?
2B - Polanco -- Average.
SS - Correa - Exceptional
3B - Royce - Average
LF - Gallo/Taylor - Exceptional
CF - Buxty/Taylor - Exceptional
RF - Max/Gallo - Exceptional
In very smart fashion and in such a way that previous front offices wouldn't have tried, Falvey has shown great creativity and foresight.  Great move.

Twins are reportedly currently under their target payroll by about $45MM per year, I have read.  In my opinion, it is not the correct route to go to sign Rodon based on his injury history and our roster composition.  Plus, position players hold up better.
Here are the three steps to WE’RE GONNA WIN TWINS, WE’RE GONNA SCORE --
Step One -- Trade Luis Arraez and Bailey Ober to Marlins for Pablo Lopez and LHRP Tanner Scott
I ran it through the trade simulator (Trades » Baseball Trade Values), it’s fairly even.
Lopez is on rookie deal making less than $4MM, earliest Free Agent 2025
Tanner Scott is making about $1MM per year – last year he had a very high whip but had 90 Ks in 63 IP and is LH
Arraez low salary but up for Arb soon and he’ll do well with that.  I don’t want to be tied at all to a slow, non-athletic slappy without a position.
Ober low rookie contract but still young and shown some promise – I personally don’t see a high ceiling there.
Net-Net the contact implications short term to this deal would be fairly negligible.

Step Two – Sign Dansby Swanson for roughly what Xander Boegarts got – about $25MM per year
Step Three – Sign a Veteran RH power-ish bat to a short term deal DH (that could perhaps play LF and/or 1B):
Such as:
Trey Mancini JD Martinez Justin Turner Brandon Drury Will Myers Andrew McCutchen AJ Pollock Jurickson Profar Resulting Situation/Lineups
Players in italics in minors with their current national ranking within the organization
Catcher –
Christian Vasquez
Ryan Jeffers
Jair Camargo
Alex Isola
Charles Mack
First Base –
Alex Kiriloff
Jose Miranda
Kyle Farmer
Tyler White
Aaron Sabato (20)
Second Base –
Jorge Polanco
Nick Gordon
Kyle Farmer
Edouard Julien (15)
Alerick Soularie (18)
Tanner Schobel (19)
Yilber Herrera (29)
Shortstop –
Dansby Swanson
Kyle Farmer
Royce Lewis
Austin Martin (3)
Brooks Lee (1)
Noah Miller (4)
Danny De Andrade (16)
Third Base –
Jose Miranda
Kyle Farmer
Keoni Cavaco (30)
Outfield –
Byron Buxton
Max Kepler
Trevor Larnach
Alex Kiriloff
Royce Lewis
Nick Gordon
Gilberto Celestino
Kyle Garlick
Matt Wallner (7)
Will Holland (28)
Emmanuel Rodriguez (11)
Misael Urbina (12)
Kala’I Rosario (21)
Yasser Mercedes (25)
 
DH –
I have no idea yet
Starting Pitching –
Sonny Gray Pablo Lopez Tyler Mahle Joe Ryan Kenta Maeda Josh Winder Chris Paddack Ronny Henriquez (5)
S.W. Richardson (6)
Cole Sands (10)
Jordan Balazovic (13)
Louie Varland (23)
Brent Headrick (24)
Matt Canterino (14)
Blayne Enlow (22)
David Festa (17)
Marco Raya (9)
 
Bullpen –
Jhoan Duran
Jorge Lopez
Caleb Thielbar (L)
Griffin Jax
Emilio Pagan
Jorge Alcala
Jovani Moran (L)
Tanner Scott (L)
Not much in terms of RP prospects
 
As I have stated this offseason,  I believe you now have a decent major league pitching staff going into the year.  We haven’t been able to say that for awhile. 
Additionally, there are a slew of near-ready SP
Naturally, when and where Royce Lewis fits in is key, but it seems to me in this scenario, he would slide nicely into LF with backup duties at CF.
Lineup:
R-            Buxton                                 CF          
S              Polanco                                2B
R             Swanson                              SS
L              Kiriloff                                   1B
R             Miranda                               3B
L              Kepler                                   RF
R             Gordon/Royce/FA           LF
L              Larnach /FA                         DH
R             Vazquez/Jeffers               C
Conclusions:
Arraez -- move that guy before you have to pay him. Farmer/Gordon becomes super utilites with Swanson on board (besides, who can be excited about Farmer as your starting SS??) Defense a little sketch at 3B and maybe 1B… if Royce becomes LF you are +++ in OF and possibly C.  Swanson solid SS and I think Polanco at 2B is solid as well. I can’t use Celestino in any way except for AAAA injury fill in. We have tons of SP coming up soon, signing Rodon wouldn’t be ideal use of cash at this point.  We need offense more (strange to say) Point could be made – why sign Swanson when 3 of your top 4 prospects are SS but those players tend to shift naturally to other positions

Twins are reportedly currently under their target payroll by about $45MM per year, I have read.  In my opinion, it is not the correct route to go to sign Rodon based on his injury history and our roster composition.  Plus, position players hold up better.
Here are the three steps to WE’RE GONNA WIN TWINS, WE’RE GONNA SCORE --
Step One -- Trade Luis Arraez and Bailey Ober to Marlins for Pablo Lopez and LHRP Tanner Scott
I ran it through the trade simulator (Trades » Baseball Trade Values), it’s fairly even.
Lopez is on rookie deal making less than $4MM, earliest Free Agent 2025
Tanner Scott is making about $1MM per year – last year he had a very high whip but had 90 Ks in 63 IP and is LH
Arraez low salary but up for Arb soon and he’ll do well with that.  I don’t want to be tied at all to a slow, non-athletic slappy without a position.
Ober low rookie contract but still young and shown some promise – I personally don’t see a high ceiling there.
Net-Net the contact implications short term to this deal would be fairly negligible.

Step Two – Sign Dansby Swanson for roughly what Xander Boegarts got – about $25MM per year
Step Three – Sign a Veteran RH power-ish bat to a short term deal DH (that could perhaps play LF and/or 1B):
Such as:
Trey Mancini JD Martinez Justin Turner Brandon Drury Will Myers Andrew McCutchen AJ Pollock Jurickson Profar Resulting Situation/Lineups
Players in italics in minors with their current national ranking within the organization
Catcher –
Christian Vasquez
Ryan Jeffers
Jair Camargo
Alex Isola
Charles Mack
First Base –
Alex Kiriloff
Jose Miranda
Kyle Farmer
Tyler White
Aaron Sabato (20)
Second Base –
Jorge Polanco
Nick Gordon
Kyle Farmer
Edouard Julien (15)
Alerick Soularie (18)
Tanner Schobel (19)
Yilber Herrera (29)
Shortstop –
Dansby Swanson
Kyle Farmer
Royce Lewis
Austin Martin (3)
Brooks Lee (1)
Noah Miller (4)
Danny De Andrade (16)
Third Base –
Jose Miranda
Kyle Farmer
Keoni Cavaco (30)
Outfield –
Byron Buxton
Max Kepler
Trevor Larnach
Alex Kiriloff
Royce Lewis
Nick Gordon
Gilberto Celestino
Kyle Garlick
Matt Wallner (7)
Will Holland (28)
Emmanuel Rodriguez (11)
Misael Urbina (12)
Kala’I Rosario (21)
Yasser Mercedes (25)
 
DH –
I have no idea yet
Starting Pitching –
Sonny Gray Pablo Lopez Tyler Mahle Joe Ryan Kenta Maeda Josh Winder Chris Paddack Ronny Henriquez (5)
S.W. Richardson (6)
Cole Sands (10)
Jordan Balazovic (13)
Louie Varland (23)
Brent Headrick (24)
Matt Canterino (14)
Blayne Enlow (22)
David Festa (17)
Marco Raya (9)
 
Bullpen –
Jhoan Duran
Jorge Lopez
Caleb Thielbar (L)
Griffin Jax
Emilio Pagan
Jorge Alcala
Jovani Moran (L)
Tanner Scott (L)
Not much in terms of RP prospects
 
As I have stated this offseason,  I believe you now have a decent major league pitching staff going into the year.  We haven’t been able to say that for awhile. 
Additionally, there are a slew of near-ready SP
Naturally, when and where Royce Lewis fits in is key, but it seems to me in this scenario, he would slide nicely into LF with backup duties at CF.
Lineup:
R-            Buxton                                 CF          
S              Polanco                                2B
R             Swanson                              SS
L              Kiriloff                                   1B
R             Miranda                               3B
L              Kepler                                   RF
R             Gordon/Royce/FA           LF
L              Larnach /FA                         DH
R             Vazquez/Jeffers               C
Conclusions:
Arraez -- move that guy before you have to pay him. Farmer/Gordon becomes super utilites with Swanson on board (besides, who can be excited about Farmer as your starting SS??) Defense a little sketch at 3B and maybe 1B… if Royce becomes LF you are +++ in OF and possibly C.  Swanson solid SS and I think Polanco at 2B is solid as well. I can’t use Celestino in any way except for AAAA injury fill in. We have tons of SP coming up soon, signing Rodon wouldn’t be ideal use of cash at this point.  We need offense more (strange to say) Point could be made – why sign Swanson when 3 of your top 4 prospects are SS but those players tend to shift naturally to other positions

Twins are reportedly currently under their target payroll by about $45MM per year, I have read.  In my opinion, it is not the correct route to go to sign Rodon based on his injury history and our roster composition.  Plus, position players hold up better.
Here are the three steps to WE’RE GONNA WIN TWINS, WE’RE GONNA SCORE --
Step One -- Trade Luis Arraez and Bailey Ober to Marlins for Pablo Lopez and LHRP Tanner Scott
I ran it through the trade simulator (Trades » Baseball Trade Values), it’s fairly even.
Lopez is on rookie deal making less than $4MM, earliest Free Agent 2025
Tanner Scott is making about $1MM per year – last year he had a very high whip but had 90 Ks in 63 IP and is LH
Arraez low salary but up for Arb soon and he’ll do well with that.  I don’t want to be tied at all to a slow, non-athletic slappy without a position.
Ober low rookie contract but still young and shown some promise – I personally don’t see a high ceiling there.
Net-Net the contact implications short term to this deal would be fairly negligible.

Step Two – Sign Dansby Swanson for roughly what Xander Boegarts got – about $25MM per year
Step Three – Sign a Veteran RH power-ish bat to a short term deal DH (that could perhaps play LF and/or 1B):
Such as:
Trey Mancini JD Martinez Justin Turner Brandon Drury Will Myers Andrew McCutchen AJ Pollock Jurickson Profar Resulting Situation/Lineups
Players in italics in minors with their current national ranking within the organization
Catcher –
Christian Vasquez
Ryan Jeffers
Jair Camargo
Alex Isola
Charles Mack
First Base –
Alex Kiriloff
Jose Miranda
Kyle Farmer
Tyler White
Aaron Sabato (20)
Second Base –
Jorge Polanco
Nick Gordon
Kyle Farmer
Edouard Julien (15)
Alerick Soularie (18)
Tanner Schobel (19)
Yilber Herrera (29)
Shortstop –
Dansby Swanson
Kyle Farmer
Royce Lewis
Austin Martin (3)
Brooks Lee (1)
Noah Miller (4)
Danny De Andrade (16)
Third Base –
Jose Miranda
Kyle Farmer
Keoni Cavaco (30)
Outfield –
Byron Buxton
Max Kepler
Trevor Larnach
Alex Kiriloff
Royce Lewis
Nick Gordon
Gilberto Celestino
Kyle Garlick
Matt Wallner (7)
Will Holland (28)
Emmanuel Rodriguez (11)
Misael Urbina (12)
Kala’I Rosario (21)
Yasser Mercedes (25)
 
DH –
I have no idea yet
Starting Pitching –
Sonny Gray Pablo Lopez Tyler Mahle Joe Ryan Kenta Maeda Josh Winder Chris Paddack Ronny Henriquez (5)
S.W. Richardson (6)
Cole Sands (10)
Jordan Balazovic (13)
Louie Varland (23)
Brent Headrick (24)
Matt Canterino (14)
Blayne Enlow (22)
David Festa (17)
Marco Raya (9)
 
Bullpen –
Jhoan Duran
Jorge Lopez
Caleb Thielbar (L)
Griffin Jax
Emilio Pagan
Jorge Alcala
Jovani Moran (L)
Tanner Scott (L)
Not much in terms of RP prospects
 
As I have stated this offseason,  I believe you now have a decent major league pitching staff going into the year.  We haven’t been able to say that for awhile. 
Additionally, there are a slew of near-ready SP
Naturally, when and where Royce Lewis fits in is key, but it seems to me in this scenario, he would slide nicely into LF with backup duties at CF.
Lineup:
R-            Buxton                                 CF          
S              Polanco                                2B
R             Swanson                              SS
L              Kiriloff                                   1B
R             Miranda                               3B
L              Kepler                                   RF
R             Gordon/Royce/FA           LF
L              Larnach /FA                         DH
R             Vazquez/Jeffers               C
Conclusions:
Arraez -- move that guy before you have to pay him. Farmer/Gordon becomes super utilites with Swanson on board (besides, who can be excited about Farmer as your starting SS??) Defense a little sketch at 3B and maybe 1B… if Royce becomes LF you are +++ in OF and possibly C.  Swanson solid SS and I think Polanco at 2B is solid as well. I can’t use Celestino in any way except for AAAA injury fill in. We have tons of SP coming up soon, signing Rodon wouldn’t be ideal use of cash at this point.  We need offense more (strange to say) Point could be made – why sign Swanson when 3 of your top 4 prospects are SS but those players tend to shift naturally to other positions

I thought the Royce Lewis experience last season was the most exciting Twins baseball since bomba ball.  Figure out how to get and keep that young man healthy and build around him.

Thanks for writing about what many of us (most of us) TD members are feeling today. We will get over it. We will survive. We're Twins fans. Where the women are strong, the men are good looking and the children are slightly above average. 

Twins are reportedly currently under their target payroll by about $45MM per year, I have read.  In my opinion, it is not the correct route to go to sign Rodon based on his injury history and our roster composition.  Plus, position players hold up better.
Here are the three steps to WE’RE GONNA WIN TWINS, WE’RE GONNA SCORE --
Step One -- Trade Luis Arraez and Bailey Ober to Marlins for Pablo Lopez and LHRP Tanner Scott
I ran it through the trade simulator (Trades » Baseball Trade Values), it’s fairly even.
Lopez is on rookie deal making less than $4MM, earliest Free Agent 2025
Tanner Scott is making about $1MM per year – last year he had a very high whip but had 90 Ks in 63 IP and is LH
Arraez low salary but up for Arb soon and he’ll do well with that.  I don’t want to be tied at all to a slow, non-athletic slappy without a position.
Ober low rookie contract but still young and shown some promise – I personally don’t see a high ceiling there.
Net-Net the contact implications short term to this deal would be fairly negligible.

Step Two – Sign Dansby Swanson for roughly what Xander Boegarts got – about $25MM per year
Step Three – Sign a Veteran RH power-ish bat to a short term deal DH (that could perhaps play LF and/or 1B):
Such as:
Trey Mancini JD Martinez Justin Turner Brandon Drury Will Myers Andrew McCutchen AJ Pollock Jurickson Profar Resulting Situation/Lineups
Players in italics in minors with their current national ranking within the organization
Catcher –
Christian Vasquez
Ryan Jeffers
Jair Camargo
Alex Isola
Charles Mack
First Base –
Alex Kiriloff
Jose Miranda
Kyle Farmer
Tyler White
Aaron Sabato (20)
Second Base –
Jorge Polanco
Nick Gordon
Kyle Farmer
Edouard Julien (15)
Alerick Soularie (18)
Tanner Schobel (19)
Yilber Herrera (29)
Shortstop –
Dansby Swanson
Kyle Farmer
Royce Lewis
Austin Martin (3)
Brooks Lee (1)
Noah Miller (4)
Danny De Andrade (16)
Third Base –
Jose Miranda
Kyle Farmer
Keoni Cavaco (30)
Outfield –
Byron Buxton
Max Kepler
Trevor Larnach
Alex Kiriloff
Royce Lewis
Nick Gordon
Gilberto Celestino
Kyle Garlick
Matt Wallner (7)
Will Holland (28)
Emmanuel Rodriguez (11)
Misael Urbina (12)
Kala’I Rosario (21)
Yasser Mercedes (25)
 
DH –
I have no idea yet
Starting Pitching –
Sonny Gray Pablo Lopez Tyler Mahle Joe Ryan Kenta Maeda Josh Winder Chris Paddack Ronny Henriquez (5)
S.W. Richardson (6)
Cole Sands (10)
Jordan Balazovic (13)
Louie Varland (23)
Brent Headrick (24)
Matt Canterino (14)
Blayne Enlow (22)
David Festa (17)
Marco Raya (9)
 
Bullpen –
Jhoan Duran
Jorge Lopez
Caleb Thielbar (L)
Griffin Jax
Emilio Pagan
Jorge Alcala
Jovani Moran (L)
Tanner Scott (L)
Not much in terms of RP prospects
 
As I have stated this offseason,  I believe you now have a decent major league pitching staff going into the year.  We haven’t been able to say that for awhile. 
Additionally, there are a slew of near-ready SP
Naturally, when and where Royce Lewis fits in is key, but it seems to me in this scenario, he would slide nicely into LF with backup duties at CF.
Lineup:
R-            Buxton                                 CF          
S              Polanco                                2B
R             Swanson                              SS
L              Kiriloff                                   1B
R             Miranda                               3B
L              Kepler                                   RF
R             Gordon/Royce/FA           LF
L              Larnach /FA                         DH
R             Vazquez/Jeffers               C
Conclusions:
Arraez -- move that guy before you have to pay him. Farmer/Gordon becomes super utilites with Swanson on board (besides, who can be excited about Farmer as your starting SS??) Defense a little sketch at 3B and maybe 1B… if Royce becomes LF you are +++ in OF and possibly C.  Swanson solid SS and I think Polanco at 2B is solid as well. I can’t use Celestino in any way except for AAAA injury fill in. We have tons of SP coming up soon, signing Rodon wouldn’t be ideal use of cash at this point.  We need offense more (strange to say) Point could be made – why sign Swanson when 3 of your top 4 prospects are SS but those players tend to shift naturally to other positions

Twins are reportedly currently under their target payroll by about $45MM per year, I have read.  In my opinion, it is not the correct route to go to sign Rodon based on his injury history and our roster composition.  Plus, position players hold up better.
Here are the three steps to WE’RE GONNA WIN TWINS, WE’RE GONNA SCORE --
Step One -- Trade Luis Arraez and Bailey Ober to Marlins for Pablo Lopez and LHRP Tanner Scott
I ran it through the trade simulator (Trades » Baseball Trade Values), it’s fairly even.
Lopez is on rookie deal making less than $4MM, earliest Free Agent 2025
Tanner Scott is making about $1MM per year – last year he had a very high whip but had 90 Ks in 63 IP and is LH
Arraez low salary but up for Arb soon and he’ll do well with that.  I don’t want to be tied at all to a slow, non-athletic slappy without a position.
Ober low rookie contract but still young and shown some promise – I personally don’t see a high ceiling there.
Net-Net the contact implications short term to this deal would be fairly negligible.

Step Two – Sign Dansby Swanson for roughly what Xander Boegarts got – about $25MM per year
Step Three – Sign a Veteran RH power-ish bat to a short term deal DH (that could perhaps play LF and/or 1B):
Such as:
Trey Mancini JD Martinez Justin Turner Brandon Drury Will Myers Andrew McCutchen AJ Pollock Jurickson Profar Resulting Situation/Lineups
Players in italics in minors with their current national ranking within the organization
Catcher –
Christian Vasquez
Ryan Jeffers
Jair Camargo
Alex Isola
Charles Mack
First Base –
Alex Kiriloff
Jose Miranda
Kyle Farmer
Tyler White
Aaron Sabato (20)
Second Base –
Jorge Polanco
Nick Gordon
Kyle Farmer
Edouard Julien (15)
Alerick Soularie (18)
Tanner Schobel (19)
Yilber Herrera (29)
Shortstop –
Dansby Swanson
Kyle Farmer
Royce Lewis
Austin Martin (3)
Brooks Lee (1)
Noah Miller (4)
Danny De Andrade (16)
Third Base –
Jose Miranda
Kyle Farmer
Keoni Cavaco (30)
Outfield –
Byron Buxton
Max Kepler
Trevor Larnach
Alex Kiriloff
Royce Lewis
Nick Gordon
Gilberto Celestino
Kyle Garlick
Matt Wallner (7)
Will Holland (28)
Emmanuel Rodriguez (11)
Misael Urbina (12)
Kala’I Rosario (21)
Yasser Mercedes (25)
 
DH –
I have no idea yet
Starting Pitching –
Sonny Gray Pablo Lopez Tyler Mahle Joe Ryan Kenta Maeda Josh Winder Chris Paddack Ronny Henriquez (5)
S.W. Richardson (6)
Cole Sands (10)
Jordan Balazovic (13)
Louie Varland (23)
Brent Headrick (24)
Matt Canterino (14)
Blayne Enlow (22)
David Festa (17)
Marco Raya (9)
 
Bullpen –
Jhoan Duran
Jorge Lopez
Caleb Thielbar (L)
Griffin Jax
Emilio Pagan
Jorge Alcala
Jovani Moran (L)
Tanner Scott (L)
Not much in terms of RP prospects
 
As I have stated this offseason,  I believe you now have a decent major league pitching staff going into the year.  We haven’t been able to say that for awhile. 
Additionally, there are a slew of near-ready SP
Naturally, when and where Royce Lewis fits in is key, but it seems to me in this scenario, he would slide nicely into LF with backup duties at CF.
Lineup:
R-            Buxton                                 CF          
S              Polanco                                2B
R             Swanson                              SS
L              Kiriloff                                   1B
R             Miranda                               3B
L              Kepler                                   RF
R             Gordon/Royce/FA           LF
L              Larnach /FA                         DH
R             Vazquez/Jeffers               C
Conclusions:
Arraez -- move that guy before you have to pay him. Farmer/Gordon becomes super utilites with Swanson on board (besides, who can be excited about Farmer as your starting SS??) Defense a little sketch at 3B and maybe 1B… if Royce becomes LF you are +++ in OF and possibly C.  Swanson solid SS and I think Polanco at 2B is solid as well. I can’t use Celestino in any way except for AAAA injury fill in. We have tons of SP coming up soon, signing Rodon wouldn’t be ideal use of cash at this point.  We need offense more (strange to say) Point could be made – why sign Swanson when 3 of your top 4 prospects are SS but those players tend to shift naturally to other positions