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  1. Like
    NotAboutWinning reacted to Trov in 3 Spring Training Stat Lines that Matter for the Twins   
    Miranda has me most excited.  He has shown in his career so far large growth in short periods.  He was a fringe prospect early on, then grew quickly a couple of years ago.  Last year he came up and struggled quickly, but then turned it around with a full 180 quickly.  Then he drops some fat, puts on some muscle this off-season and takes spring head on.  Yes, spring means nothing, but I am very high on Miranda right now as a sneaky guy to be our MVP this year.  
  2. Like
    NotAboutWinning reacted to Richie the Rally Goat in Difficult to get into the mood for Baseball…   
    The day when I get home from work and the sun is still up
  3. Like
    NotAboutWinning reacted to davidborton in Correa's Leadership, Part 1: Define Your Terms   
    Mr Donaldson.
  4. Haha
    NotAboutWinning reacted to big dog in Sonny Gray's Criticism of Last Year's Rotation Shows How Far We've Come   
    I believe there are laws that protect the identity of the pooch under these circumstances, and in any case I'd rather that discussions of this kind of behavior be kept out of press conferences as much as possible.
  5. Like
    NotAboutWinning reacted to Mike Sixel in Ober Optioned as Opening Day Roster Becomes More Clear   
    Those two aren't competing for a spot, are they?
  6. Like
    NotAboutWinning reacted to DocBauer in Byron Buxton is Worth It   
    Am I happy with this? Of course not. I want Buxton in CF playing as many days as possible and Taylor being the great depth and rotation piece he's meant to be.
    But I just don't see the angst here. They've only stated Buck is beginning the season in the DH role. Where was it ever said he's moving there? No spring games in CF? It's not like he wasn't running around at the complex and hasn't played the position before. They're just being a little overly cautious about easing him in and saving some game wear on his knee. Additionally, it's going to be a little damp and cold the first few weeks of the season. We've seen this approach before, not just with Buxton, but other players and milb players before him.
    I'm just not concerned about anything here until something tells/shows me that I should be.
  7. Disagree
    NotAboutWinning reacted to Trov in Byron Buxton is Worth It   
    I am not part of the brain trust, and I am sure the Twins employ and pay people a lot of money to make educated decisions like making Buck the DH for some set amount of time, but I just do not see the logic.  I mean are they also going to ask him to run at like 50%?  How about they tell him to not run any balls out at all?  Just swing and if it is a HR great, if not jog the 90 feet.  Tell him to never slide and just do not run at a speed that will require him to slide to stop.  Hell, lets not even ask him to take a lead off the base so he can avoid having to move quickly incase they try to pick him off.  Better yet, lets ask him to never swing, because he has actually got hurt in past when he fouled a ball off his foot.  Let him stand in there like the kid in Rookie of the Year.  Cower in the corner of the box with his back turned.  If he does sneeze and a swing comes out, walk to next base and if the ball is in the in the air just walk to dug out.  We should have him go up in full catchers gear when he bats, and put on boxing gloves so his hands do not get hurt if he is hit by a pitch.  He should not be in on deck circle either, and lets get him a golf cart to get to the batter box so he does not twist and ankle walking.  Can anyone think of another way to decrease his value to the team but make sure he will stay healthy?  Oh when not playing lets make sure we hire an assistant that does all his packing, one player once cut his thumb closing a suitcase, and make sure someone carries his bags every where too.  
  8. Like
    NotAboutWinning reacted to Rod Carews Birthday in Byron Buxton is Worth It   
    I think it is reasonable to think that Buxton, based on his numbers from the past three years, is going to be a solid DH to begin the year — probably stronger than anyone else we were going to play there.  In the field, Taylor will play an excellent center field, even if he is not a great hitter.  However, when we think of Taylor, he’s not replacing Buxton’s bat in the lineup.  He’s replacing the bat of the DH who would bat if Buxton weren’t there.  Some days that might be a strong hitter, like Miranda, but on plenty of others, that hitter won’t be that much better than Taylor, who is a very long distance from the black hole that Miguel Sano or someone like him would be.  
    I also think Buxton is the new “we signed him to a big contract and now he needs to be Superman” argument that many made about Joe Mauer when he was playing.  First of all, Buxton’s contract is for about $15M per year, which he is likely to well-earn, even in a year he isn’t playing 140 games.  Second, $15M doesn’t buy nearly as much as it used to.  Third, if this results in him playing even 120 games this year, I’m not at all worried about the value the Twins will get from him.  Let’s let something go wrong before we search for reasons for problems that haven’t occurred yet.  
  9. Like
    NotAboutWinning reacted to JD-TWINS in Byron Buxton is Worth It   
    I agree - he’s overhyped. Overhyped because people lean into his athleticism as being his primary value - stealing bases - gold glove defense - etc.
    He’s got raw power. He strikes out a bunch - most power guys in today’s game also strike out too much.
    The fact that you only see greatness a few weeks out of the year exemplifies why he should DH - so he plays more than his average of 74 games per year (excluding 2017).
    130-135 games played with the heavy use of DH & regular rest seems to be a plan. Never tried it before. Gotta do something different other than just cross our fingers.
  10. Like
    NotAboutWinning reacted to wabene in Behind the Plate   
    This is a good point👍
  11. Like
    NotAboutWinning reacted to AlGoreRythm in Sonny Gray's Criticism of Last Year's Rotation Shows How Far We've Come   
    Has anyone claiming Rocco should've let Archer pitch a third time through the order looked at his career numbers after the second turn through?
    I'll save you some hassle, they're quite bad.
    It definitely stretched the bullpen thin having both Archer and Bundy pitching every 5th day, and having them one after the other for most of the season created a knock-on situation where they didn't have enough fresh arms throughout most of the season.
    That doesn't mean things would've been at all improved letting those guys pitch through the order another time, especially Archer.
    It was just overall a very bad situation, and I think the front office should've done more to shore up the rotation. I don't think they played the FA market right, but I think a lot of that was due to the lockout and non-normal off-season.
    It doesn't excuse it, but I feel this off-season as well as getting Mahle at the trade deadline last year have been attempts at redemption that I can respect, even if I'm not particularly optimistic about Mahle's consistentcy (the lack of any reason for his shoulder issue bugs me).
    Last year I put more blame on the front office than the players or manager. This year I feel the front office has done their job assembling a decent pitching staff, now it's in the players to perform and Rocco to put them in spots to succeed.
  12. Like
    NotAboutWinning reacted to Jocko87 in Sonny Gray's Criticism of Last Year's Rotation Shows How Far We've Come   
    The 3rd time through the order stat seems incredibly messy to me.  It’s a lagging indicator of several other better predictive pitcher stats.  The number that jumped out to me from the article is 10 of the 12 6+ inning starts were Gray and Ryan. Pitch well, pitch more innings. 
  13. Like
    NotAboutWinning reacted to Nick Nelson in Sonny Gray's Criticism of Last Year's Rotation Shows How Far We've Come   
    After making his final spring tune-up start on Sunday, Twins starter Sonny Gray was blunt in expressing his view on the 2022 rotation and its shortcomings.
    Lucky for him (and us), there's good reason to expect a big change in the season ahead.
    Image courtesy of Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports Over the weekend, we learned that Sonny Gray will not be the Twins' Opening Day starter – that honor will instead go to newcomer Pablo López on Thursday in Kansas City. Gray will, however, get the nod for the home opener a week later. There's little question he is viewed as the veteran leader on this starting staff, one year after establishing himself as its top performer.
    As such, Gray's comments following his final spring start on Sunday are noteworthy. After throwing three shutout innings against the Red Sox, the 33-year-old opened up on a bit of a vent session regarding last year's norm of shorter outings for Twins starters.
    “I don’t think we’re interested in going four innings and being happy,” Gray told reporters. “I feel like we had a group last year that was pretty content with going four innings, and [where] going four innings and five innings is considered a good start. I disagreed with that then, I disagree with that now.”
    Gray was channeling the frustrations a lot of fans felt with last year's team. And those frustrations are understandable, even if they were often misdirected. 
    There's no doubt that Rocco Baldelli generally had a quick trigger with starters in 2022, more so than ever before. But it wasn't due to some sudden philosophical shift on his part. As I see it, this tendency owed to two different factors:
    The league in general has trended toward shorter outings for starters and more innings for specialized relief pitchers. 
    The Twins had a particularly bad starting staff last year, with both Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy members of the rotation on Opening Day and all year long.
    The first part is what it is, and it's not likely to change in the age of high-powered, optimization-obsessive baseball pitching strategy. Baldelli might be more apt than some others to embrace the analytical logic of "times through the order" penalties and matchup-based advantages, but he's hardly some outlier egghead on this topic. 
    It's the way of the game. Last year, eight MLB pitchers threw more than 200 innings and one (Sandy Alcantara) threw more than 210. Twenty years earlier (2002), those numbers were 42 and thirty. 
    Gray himself is sort of a poster child for the modern MLB starting pitcher. While an accomplished multi-time All-Star, and a guy who's rightfully earned "borderline ace" designation, Gray has averaged 140 innings per season over the past seven years, and has never topped even 180 during that span. He hasn't thrown a complete game since 2017.
    That said, I don't think Gray's expectations for himself or others in the rotation are tethered to some outdated standard, even if some fans still long for the prototypical workhorse of yesteryear. He just wants starting pitchers around him who get the job done. Which brings us to my second point above: the Twins were just flat-out lacking in pitching talent last year.
    To some extent, they deserve a bit of grace on that part. Losing Kenta Maeda to Tommy John surgery and trading José Berríos at the deadline left them in an extremely tough spot with no easy answers. The front office signaled early on that they might get experimental in terms of pitcher usage as a way to navigate this challenge, so no one should've been all that surprised that they basically did just that. 
    Ultimately there were some fatal flaws in the execution of this plan, but that doesn't mean it a was conceptually bad idea. And anyway, what needs to be emphasized here is that it was a matter of circumstance: the Twins were in a uniquely bad position with their short-term rotation depth. 
    Fast-forward one year, and the makeup of this unit is very different. Gray now has had a full, normal spring – no lockout-trade combo disrupting his buildup routine – so hopefully that helps lead him to a healthier year and continued excellent performance on the mound. Joe Ryan is now fully established as a quality mid-rotation starter.
    On top of those two, you've got these additions to the mix: 
    Tyler Mahle, who threw 180 innings in his last full season (2021), López, who threw 180 innings last season, and Maeda, who averaged 5.4 IP/start for the Twins before undergoing Tommy John surgery These are hurlers who you can expect to pitch into the sixth inning with regularity, if healthy. That was never a particularly reasonable expectation for the likes of Archer or Bundy.
    It's easy to read Gray's comment at a glance and say, "He's taking a shot at his manager and the way this staff was a run last year." In reality, I think what he's saying is, "It sure is nice to be surrounded by competent talent in the rotation  now."
    While I'm sure he meant no specific offense to Archer with his comment, it's understandable how Gray might've been baffled (as we all were) watching the Twins go through an extensive orchestrated routine to get four mediocre innings out of the guy every fifth day.
    The situation this year will be a far cry from that, which is one of the main reasons fans should feel confident in a significantly better on-field product in 2023.

    View full article
  14. Like
    NotAboutWinning reacted to wabene in Ober Optioned as Opening Day Roster Becomes More Clear   
    I doubt Ober is wasting any energy on thoughts like that. He knows as well as you or I about him being the only starter in the top 6 with an option. The only starter with zero track record for durability. He knows if he performs this year and holds up, he will have the inside track on a rotation spot next year. The young man will keep his head down and work. His opportunities are just ahead of him. 
  15. Like
    NotAboutWinning reacted to HerbieFan in Ober Optioned as Opening Day Roster Becomes More Clear   
    We get way too worked up about what the Opening Day roster looks like.  In a month it'll look different.  Couple weeks after that, it'll look different again.....
  16. Like
    NotAboutWinning reacted to IndianaTwin in Byron Buxton is Worth It   
    I think you nailed it. Here's his stats for the last four years: 

    On a per-162 basis, those are great numbers from a full-time DH.
    We recognize he's not going to play 162, however. But rather than considering that he averaged 70 games per year in this time period, a better average is about 83 games, given that it's only 3.37 seasons because of COVID.  
    After 92 games last season, start the year with a pattern that shoots for 108 games this year (two of every three games). Start with the pattern of a full-time DH, gradually into CF as health allows. 
  17. Like
    NotAboutWinning reacted to Cody Pirkl in Byron Buxton is Worth It   
    The good news is Byron Buxton looks good to go for Opening Day. The bad news is it appears it may be a bit until we see him play the field. Some fans may be disappointed, but it may be the right move.
    Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Byron Buxton sat out a majority of spring training games to many fans' dismay before debuting at DH last week. Buxton’s appearance indicated a readiness for Opening Day but was quickly followed by news that he wouldn’t be playing in the field to begin the season. 
    Byron Buxton is a dynamic player. At the beginning of his career, while struggling at the plate, he still enamored fans with his ability to run down fly balls to a superhuman degree. He still holds the highest stolen base percentage in MLB history.
    He’s a different player than he was when he debuted. We rarely see him try to steal bases anymore. Over the years he’s made reckless dives at balls less often and rarely goes crashing into the wall as we once saw him do. He rarely takes off from first base. Early in 2023, he won’t be roaming centerfield at all. 
    As Buxton’s game has changed defensively and on the bases, so too has his offensive profile. Not only has Buxton molded himself into an offensive contributor, but he’s projected to be the best hitter in the lineup this season as he arguably has been the last few years. The issue of course isn’t talent, but how often Buxton has been able to use it.
    The Twins know this, which is why they’re opting to DH him to begin the season. They’ve made the decision that his bat is too valuable to risk losing in pursuit of his defensive value, at least for now. Is that the right decision?
    In 2022, Byron Buxton put up an .833 OPS, a down year relative to 2020 and 2021. His knee was ailing him, and he became something of an all-or-nothing hitter, something he could hopefully avoid in 2023. Despite his struggles with consistency, he was 36% above the league-average hitter. This would have put him behind only the Astros Yordan Alvarez in regard to designated hitters in all of baseball. Buxton’s bat is special enough that even when he’s as banged up as he was in 2022, he can be a game-changer without playing the field.
    The Twins also insulated their center field depth to a degree they never had before. If you think the Twins will miss Buxton’s center-field defense, it’s worth noting that Michael A. Taylor is a defensive wizard in his own right. While Outs Above Average has him comfortably below Buxton defensively, his 19 defensive runs saved in 2022 paced out to a similar number to what Buxton would have reached in a full season. It’s safe to say that Taylor’s presence on the roster should significantly soften the blow of Buxton not playing the field. 
    Byron Buxton’s inability to play the field when the season starts is disappointing, but he’s got plenty of star power to add solely at the plate. Michael A. Taylor still will give the Twins one of the best defensive centerfielders in the game, even though the thought of getting the full Byron Buxton Experience is enticing.
    Fans may be tired of Byron Buxton being treated with kid gloves, but he’s the kind of star player that’s worth taking the conservative route with. By all accounts, a return to centerfield is in his future, and they’re in much better shape than in past years while they wait until he’s ready. Byron Buxton is worth it.

    View full article
  18. Like
    NotAboutWinning reacted to saviking in 3 Dark Horse Candidates to Claim Bullpen Roles in 2023   
    I'd take any of them over Pagan
  19. Like
    NotAboutWinning reacted to Doctor Gast in Do the Twins Prefer Positionless Prospects?   
    Sorry Cody, I don't like the term position-less players when describing players like Lewis. Because it's not true, they are multi-positional. If their main position is blocked then they jump to another one. To me a position-less player is someone who can hit & can play 1B/ DH but if their position is blocked so they're stuck.
    But I know what you mean, yet that's a little different from drafting a big bat at SS or CF knowing full well they won't stick. We have to draft athletic types that can field because if we draft a big bat that can't hit, they're stuck in the lower levels.
  20. Like
    NotAboutWinning got a reaction from Richie the Rally Goat in Did the Twins Lose Money Last Year?   
    Interesting note… Assume for a moment the data is good. Without Correa’s salary, the Twins would have made a small profit last year. How much revenue did his presence generate? 
  21. Like
    NotAboutWinning got a reaction from roger in Royce Lewis is Ready to Rock   
    Totally admire his emotional intelligence! Play the long game and take the time a full recovery requires, even when he is feeling ready.
  22. Like
    NotAboutWinning got a reaction from Nine of twelve in Royce Lewis is Ready to Rock   
    Totally admire his emotional intelligence! Play the long game and take the time a full recovery requires, even when he is feeling ready.
  23. Like
    NotAboutWinning got a reaction from DocBauer in Royce Lewis is Ready to Rock   
    Totally admire his emotional intelligence! Play the long game and take the time a full recovery requires, even when he is feeling ready.
  24. Like
    NotAboutWinning got a reaction from glunn in Royce Lewis is Ready to Rock   
    Totally admire his emotional intelligence! Play the long game and take the time a full recovery requires, even when he is feeling ready.
  25. Like
    NotAboutWinning got a reaction from Richie the Rally Goat in Royce Lewis is Ready to Rock   
    Totally admire his emotional intelligence! Play the long game and take the time a full recovery requires, even when he is feeling ready.
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