JD-TWINS

Eventually, the Twins WILL have some sort of TV deal.  But I also would like to see them reconsider the payroll cut for 2024.  Each season brings new challenges and opportunities.  The Twins should not be arbitrarily "disarming" for 2024.  The division is indeed eminently "winnable" in 2024.  That shouldn't be the shortsighted goal. The goal should be a plan that makes them formidable World Series contenders for the next 5 seasons.
This is like what I mentioned in another post in the conversation I recently had with a Brewers fan.  The year was 2018 and the Brewers had just stunned the loaded Dodgers in the playoffs.  Yelich had just completed his first awesome year in Milwaukee.  The young pitching pipeline was arriving.  The Brewers, with a manager like Craig Counsell were in a true window of opportunity.  Fast forward 5 years, their ownership and front office tried to get by on the cheap, making fringy moves here and there but always with an eye on COST and not what would get them over the hurdles needed to take that next big step.
Now look where the Brewers are.  Their window has slammed shut.  Counsell has left to take a big payday with the hated divisional rival Cubs.  The Brewers are contemplating blowing it all up to embark on a major rebuild.  They've got several very promising OF prospects and a SP (Peralta) signed to an incredibly team friendly contract for the next 3 years and a solid catcher/hitter in William Contreras.  But mainstays in their rotation like Burnes and Woodruff are probably history.
This is somewhat similar to the Twins in the mid 2000's with Santana, Mauer, Morneau and Nathan.  The talent was there to win a World Series but the Twins focused on COST and not what it would take to add one more stud SP to pair with Santana or a RH hitter to sandwich between Mauer and Morneau.  
How often do these windows open up for a team in a market the size of the Twin Cities or Milwaukee??  

IMO calling up a few players like Martin will improve the team for a lot less money. I agree it's not a typical business, but they still have to make money as any other business does. My guess is that they will shoot for somewhere in the 140 mil range for payroll, which should be enough to keep this a good to very good team.

I agree - Santana probably deserved the 3 Awards in a row!!
He’s my favorite Twins pitcher to watch of All-times.
Some pretty fun guys over the years, not necessarily great careers or long years of success……..some very successful!!
Rick Aguilera - Joe Nathan - Jeff Reardon - Johann Duran - Juan Berringuer 
Kaat - Perry - Blyleven - Erickson - Viola - Morris - Gray - Lopez  and a bunch of lesser or less remembered names.
The stats of one guy that are not only influenced by the fact that there were only 4 starters but by the fact that he was an absolute horse of an athlete!
Bert Blyleven (brief review):
- First SEVEN OF seasons (other than ‘70, he was 19 years old) pitched for  mostly weak Twins teams
- ERA sub 3.00 over 7 years
- 249 starts (after ‘70) averaged 37.33 starts per year for 6 years & (after ‘70, his Rookie year)……. 291 innings per year 
- 115 complete games!!! ER
- 30 Shutouts!
- He was 103-97……..pitched for bad teams!!
- Age 21, 22, & 23 he went 17-17, 20-17, 17–17 with associated ERA’s of 2.73, 2.52, & 2.66.
Don’t know of any pitcher in history with his stats through Age 25……..
-1979 World Series Champ with Pittsburgh
- 1985 in blended season with Cleveland & back with Twins he was 17-14 with a 3.16 ERA. At age 34 he lead league in Starts with 37 - Complete Games with 24 - Shutouts with 5 - Innings with 294 - Strikeouts with 206. PHENOMINAL
- 1987 World Series Champ with Minnesota
- 1989 in age 38 season he went 17-5 with the Angels. 33 starts & 241 innings with 8 complete games & lead league with 5 Shutouts
GREAT CAREER - vastly overlooked even though he finally made HOF a few years ago.

I agree - Santana probably deserved the 3 Awards in a row!!
He’s my favorite Twins pitcher to watch of All-times.
Some pretty fun guys over the years, not necessarily great careers or long years of success……..some very successful!!
Rick Aguilera - Joe Nathan - Jeff Reardon - Johann Duran - Juan Berringuer 
Kaat - Perry - Blyleven - Erickson - Viola - Morris - Gray - Lopez  and a bunch of lesser or less remembered names.
The stats of one guy that are not only influenced by the fact that there were only 4 starters but by the fact that he was an absolute horse of an athlete!
Bert Blyleven (brief review):
- First SEVEN OF seasons (other than ‘70, he was 19 years old) pitched for  mostly weak Twins teams
- ERA sub 3.00 over 7 years
- 249 starts (after ‘70) averaged 37.33 starts per year for 6 years & (after ‘70, his Rookie year)……. 291 innings per year 
- 115 complete games!!! ER
- 30 Shutouts!
- He was 103-97……..pitched for bad teams!!
- Age 21, 22, & 23 he went 17-17, 20-17, 17–17 with associated ERA’s of 2.73, 2.52, & 2.66.
Don’t know of any pitcher in history with his stats through Age 25……..
-1979 World Series Champ with Pittsburgh
- 1985 in blended season with Cleveland & back with Twins he was 17-14 with a 3.16 ERA. At age 34 he lead league in Starts with 37 - Complete Games with 24 - Shutouts with 5 - Innings with 294 - Strikeouts with 206. PHENOMINAL
- 1987 World Series Champ with Minnesota
- 1989 in age 38 season he went 17-5 with the Angels. 33 starts & 241 innings with 8 complete games & lead league with 5 Shutouts
GREAT CAREER - vastly overlooked even though he finally made HOF a few years ago.

I agree - Santana probably deserved the 3 Awards in a row!!
He’s my favorite Twins pitcher to watch of All-times.
Some pretty fun guys over the years, not necessarily great careers or long years of success……..some very successful!!
Rick Aguilera - Joe Nathan - Jeff Reardon - Johann Duran - Juan Berringuer 
Kaat - Perry - Blyleven - Erickson - Viola - Morris - Gray - Lopez  and a bunch of lesser or less remembered names.
The stats of one guy that are not only influenced by the fact that there were only 4 starters but by the fact that he was an absolute horse of an athlete!
Bert Blyleven (brief review):
- First SEVEN OF seasons (other than ‘70, he was 19 years old) pitched for  mostly weak Twins teams
- ERA sub 3.00 over 7 years
- 249 starts (after ‘70) averaged 37.33 starts per year for 6 years & (after ‘70, his Rookie year)……. 291 innings per year 
- 115 complete games!!! ER
- 30 Shutouts!
- He was 103-97……..pitched for bad teams!!
- Age 21, 22, & 23 he went 17-17, 20-17, 17–17 with associated ERA’s of 2.73, 2.52, & 2.66.
Don’t know of any pitcher in history with his stats through Age 25……..
-1979 World Series Champ with Pittsburgh
- 1985 in blended season with Cleveland & back with Twins he was 17-14 with a 3.16 ERA. At age 34 he lead league in Starts with 37 - Complete Games with 24 - Shutouts with 5 - Innings with 294 - Strikeouts with 206. PHENOMINAL
- 1987 World Series Champ with Minnesota
- 1989 in age 38 season he went 17-5 with the Angels. 33 starts & 241 innings with 8 complete games & lead league with 5 Shutouts
GREAT CAREER - vastly overlooked even though he finally made HOF a few years ago.

Note to author - I understand you didn’t see Jim Kaat pitch but that makes me pretty confident you didn’t see Killebrew - Carew- Oliva - Versailles either ……. when a guy is in the HOF you probably don’t need to see him play.
An actual team listing:
Lymann Bostock - LF      S. Mack
Paul Molitor - DH             N. Cruz
Rod Carew - 2B                C. Knoblach
Harmon Killebrew - 3B    G. Gaetti
Tony Oliva - RF                 Brunansky
Kirby Puckett - CF             Hunter
Justin Morneau - 1B          Hrbek
Carlos Correa - SS            Versailles
Joe Mauer - C                    Harper
Staff: Santana - Blyleven - Viola - Morris - Kaat
Pen: Nathan - Aguilera - Guardado - Reardon - Peranoski - Duran
Couple guys from old Senator teams would/should be on the team but other than Walter Johnson, wouldn’t be recognized so left omitted.

Note to author - I understand you didn’t see Jim Kaat pitch but that makes me pretty confident you didn’t see Killebrew - Carew- Oliva - Versailles either ……. when a guy is in the HOF you probably don’t need to see him play.
An actual team listing:
Lymann Bostock - LF      S. Mack
Paul Molitor - DH             N. Cruz
Rod Carew - 2B                C. Knoblach
Harmon Killebrew - 3B    G. Gaetti
Tony Oliva - RF                 Brunansky
Kirby Puckett - CF             Hunter
Justin Morneau - 1B          Hrbek
Carlos Correa - SS            Versailles
Joe Mauer - C                    Harper
Staff: Santana - Blyleven - Viola - Morris - Kaat
Pen: Nathan - Aguilera - Guardado - Reardon - Peranoski - Duran
Couple guys from old Senator teams would/should be on the team but other than Walter Johnson, wouldn’t be recognized so left omitted.

Note to author - I understand you didn’t see Jim Kaat pitch but that makes me pretty confident you didn’t see Killebrew - Carew- Oliva - Versailles either ……. when a guy is in the HOF you probably don’t need to see him play.
An actual team listing:
Lymann Bostock - LF      S. Mack
Paul Molitor - DH             N. Cruz
Rod Carew - 2B                C. Knoblach
Harmon Killebrew - 3B    G. Gaetti
Tony Oliva - RF                 Brunansky
Kirby Puckett - CF             Hunter
Justin Morneau - 1B          Hrbek
Carlos Correa - SS            Versailles
Joe Mauer - C                    Harper
Staff: Santana - Blyleven - Viola - Morris - Kaat
Pen: Nathan - Aguilera - Guardado - Reardon - Peranoski - Duran
Couple guys from old Senator teams would/should be on the team but other than Walter Johnson, wouldn’t be recognized so left omitted.

I was in 7th row off 3rd base dirt and he looked fine. This was after the run down to 1B where it did look like some lower body problem. The heel - then hamstring explanation makes perfect sense.
He was riding bike and apparently comfortable doing so on Wednesday pre-game.
He sits the Angels Series and re-evaluate this weekend for last handful of games.

I had to laugh when you said Rocco can figure out the lineup.  He can not figure out who to pitch, when to bunt player over or many other things a manager should be able to figure out. He has almost NO clue on how to handle pitchers. It was a sad day for Twins fans when he was hired and will this sadness will continue for many years to come.

Reminds me of a Traffic song, Dear Mr. Fantasy……….
4 guys averages in the minor leagues do not a successful MLB team make.
Some optimism is great ……..I think Martin has a shot in ‘24. Lee is nearly a certainty by the middle of ‘24!!
We need, any MLB team needs experience. Why hire Dallas Kuechel on a flyer v. just sticking with Varland.
Why sign Taylor & Solano & Vazquez?
They get it - the grind - the mental side - how to get confident when things aren’t going great. Gotta have a blend and it needs to be more than CC & Buxton….,,two # 1 picks in the draft.
I see Polanco moving on after ‘23 due to lack of health.
Out of Soring Training:
Lewis-CC-Julien-Kirilloff ……Kepler-Buxton-Wallner…..2 catchers.
Farmer-Solano-Castro…….,,room for 1 new guy in ‘24.
I think this is reality.

Never moving to Minnesota, UNLESS, we get to the AL Championship Series. At that point, we are young and potentially attractive. 10% chance he comes.
He can’t pitch in ‘24 and may never be able to pitch “well” again. Heading for 2nd Tommy John. I think the only fair approach is to incentivize the pitching half of contract with a baseline regardless of his success as a pitcher, i.e. $10M/year …..with $15M/year of easily attained incentives…..innings & ERA based. $35M/year for offense……can’t safely hit until August of ‘24. Essentially paying him in ‘24 because you like him.
$45M plus pitching incentives x 7 years……if he can pitch it’s 7 years for $420million.
After we re-sign Maeda ….(key to get Ohtani!) & pick up Kepler’s option we have about $50M left from this year’s budget……..Ohtani’s signing is worth 5,000 patrons x 81 games + $5.00 additional charge per ticket on all tickets.
1.8M (current attendance) x $5.00 = $9M
Addl. 400K patrons x $45 = $18M…….plus $6M net on concessions
$33M just in additional revenue from signing Ohtani
$33M + $50M = $83M to spend on Ohtani & supplementing the team outside Maeda & Kepler…….seems pretty reasonable to spend $45M - $60M on Ohtani.
Not coming to Land-o-Lakes for $60M, nor any amount.

Harmon scored 106 in ‘69 & drove himself in 49 times. Carew had a .440 OBP  in ‘77 & hit .388…….he batted 3rd instead of lead off like Knoblach….less good hitters to drive him home & he scored 128 runs with 100RBI.

Had to look up Bill James' favorite stat, Runs Created, which takes in the entire offensive output, for clarity. Also, let's throw in wRC+ which is *rate* of Runs Created weighted for league, era, park, etc.
 
The standout years for notable Twins (Zoilo's 65 and Hrbek's 84 et al don't really compare to these, FWIW):
 
Player, year, RC/wRC+
 
Carew 77 145/175
Killebrew 69 143/173
Knoblauch 96 142/145 (steals galore)
Killebrew 67 130/176 (missed time)
Mauer 09 127/170 (missed time)
Oliva 64 126/148
Puckett 88 123/150
Allison 64 113/164
 
and the "if only" year, 2010:
 
Morneau 10 75/183
Thome 10 71/177
Other than the steal-inflated Knoblauch year, it is as we remember it, and even this stat can't really decide.
 
 

Hope he can hold it together! Encouraging.

I'm from Iowa and my brothers were 8-10 yrs old when the Twins began in 1961 and became big fans.  I was born in 1961 and followed their footsteps.  The Rec Dept would take a van load of locals to MSP each summer for a game and I started getting to the games that way starting in 1970.  We'd also tune into Halsey Hall each night in the summer.  

I grew up in Buffalo. Half the kids were Yankees fans, the other half just picked the winning teams. My grandmother was in Minnesota and sent me a pennant, tee shirt, and poster. I looked in the newspaper and saw names like Killebrew, Carew, Olivia... And they happened to be in the playoffs against the O's. Nobody else liked the Twins. They've been mine every since. Through the crappy Cal Griffen years. I felt so vindicated when they won it all in 87. 

Oliva cup to drink from routinely as a 4-5 year old. “Tony O!”
My older sister was the Pillsbury’s nanny/cook for a couple years while at the U …….we got their tickets a few rows behind the Twins dugout a couple times. Jim Kaat playing catch 30-40 feet away in front of the dugout  -  I was hooked!
Started playing baseball in summer of ‘70.
Twins were good ‘69 & ‘70.
Kaat - Peranoski - Perry - Blyleven 
Tovar - Carew - Cardenas - Oliva - Killebrew
Great days!!
Brothers were both into the game and were 14 & 15 years older than me so they were a big influence out in the yard. My Dad knew more baseball history than most, so that was fun as well.

There are options which have not been used. The stolen base is one. So are hit and run and laying down a sacrifice bunt.
Correa should be batting sixth as well.

Oliva cup to drink from routinely as a 4-5 year old. “Tony O!”
My older sister was the Pillsbury’s nanny/cook for a couple years while at the U …….we got their tickets a few rows behind the Twins dugout a couple times. Jim Kaat playing catch 30-40 feet away in front of the dugout  -  I was hooked!
Started playing baseball in summer of ‘70.
Twins were good ‘69 & ‘70.
Kaat - Peranoski - Perry - Blyleven 
Tovar - Carew - Cardenas - Oliva - Killebrew
Great days!!
Brothers were both into the game and were 14 & 15 years older than me so they were a big influence out in the yard. My Dad knew more baseball history than most, so that was fun as well.

Oliva cup to drink from routinely as a 4-5 year old. “Tony O!”
My older sister was the Pillsbury’s nanny/cook for a couple years while at the U …….we got their tickets a few rows behind the Twins dugout a couple times. Jim Kaat playing catch 30-40 feet away in front of the dugout  -  I was hooked!
Started playing baseball in summer of ‘70.
Twins were good ‘69 & ‘70.
Kaat - Peranoski - Perry - Blyleven 
Tovar - Carew - Cardenas - Oliva - Killebrew
Great days!!
Brothers were both into the game and were 14 & 15 years older than me so they were a big influence out in the yard. My Dad knew more baseball history than most, so that was fun as well.

Getting to experience baseball as a kid, I think, is unbelievable and awesome. It creates magical memories you carry with you for life. 

Maybe a nice guy but we don’t need to pick up other team’s DFA guys. We face 25% LH pitching. We don’t have a roster spot for this elusive RH corner OF.

Maybe a nice guy but we don’t need to pick up other team’s DFA guys. We face 25% LH pitching. We don’t have a roster spot for this elusive RH corner OF.

Like the addition of speed thought!
In my opinion, Farmer - Castro - Solano have absolutely cemented themselves on this year’s roster. Farmer is doing everything they wanted/expected, same with Solano, & Castro is probably exceeding expectations!
Taylor isn’t far behind.
We have a roster crunch coming - pretty obvious to those who follow the team. With the Angels coming out as buyers, I think we trade Jorge Polanco for whoever you & FO think brings value to our organization. The Angels get a guy that is proven hitter for their “playoff push” and he can play 2B or 3B as needed. We add to our depth at AAA level and free up a spot on our 26 man roster.
Buxton back for Larnach this morning.
Lewis - Polanco are coming back soon. Somebody has to go!! Again, IMO, we trade Polanco & we option different guys through August to enable us to keep Gallo on roster for depth & positional flexibility. September 1 the roster expands and he can spend the rest of the season with the team.
Optioned guys would be Wallner most likely. Only other guys are Castro or Julien and neither of those seem plausible, even for just 10 days, unless one needs a mental break. Doubt that’s the case with anyone?
Could DFA either Gallo or Taylor.
Could have Buxton pull a hammy for the IL for the month of August. Best option.
Without trading Polanco, we have a bigger roster problem!