cjm0926

I would absolutely hang onto him regardless. He is such a good fit for this team. He hit LHP better than Solano (in every triple slash) and is a far better glove.
There are only 4 infielders on the roster that are sure things come opening day 2024: Lewis, Correa, Polanco, Julien. Farmer might be the backup for all spots. He also provides insurance if they trade Polanco.
Finally, there is a dearth of FA SSs on the market. Farmer could likely pull in a 2/20 contract because of that. At least 1/12. That means he has surplus value if they decide to trade him instead. Unlike Urshella, I think he brings back a fringe top 15 prospect. 

Thanks for that!
We easily have 7 or 8 spots that can easily be replaced with trades and younger talent . 

Thank you!

Goldschmidt for Julien and Larnach/Wallner?  Let's look at just Goldy versus Eddie.
Goldy:  593 AB, 25 HR, 80 RBI, 11 SB, .268 AVG
Eddie:  338 AB, 16 HR, 37 RBI. 3 SB, .263 AVG
Now prorate Eddie's numbers to match Goldy's AB.
Eddie:  593 AB, 28 HR, 65 RBI, 5 SB, .263 AVG.
The numbers are not too dissimilar.  But Goldy is 36 and Eddie is 24.  I would not make that trade straight up much less with another young bat thrown in.

Zero chance of being moving on: Lopez, Correa and Buxton.
Nowadays every one else is trade bait.

Yea I definetly think they will pick up Kepler and Polanco's option. It wouldn't make any sense not to. The real question is if they are on the 2024 Opening Day Roster. There is trade value to be had with each of them it just depends how the FO views them for the 2024 season, and could choose alternate routes

Rather than trading for Goldschmidt I think we should go after Bellinger instead. He's 5/6 yrs younger and he fills a need at 1B, and he appears to be back on track offensively. ( .307/26/970 would look really nive in the 3 or 4 hole. I'm not sure if he's a FA this year or next, but maybe Cubs would like a pkg of Miranda/Larnarch and a pitcher.?

I saw that too. Count me as cynical until I see a player follow through on that kind of talk. Money won't be the deciding factor in the sense that he will have a lot of options where the money is essentially the same and he can choose between two or three areas to have his family stay during the season, and two or three tax treatments for half of his income, and so on. Then there will be the Twins' offer along with all the other mid-market teams. Ecstatic to be proven wrong here.

Too bad Castellanos isn't in a contract year (or Alvarez for that matter). He earned himself a payday that series. Just for giggles, I looked at my favorite trade tool (you know the kind that doesn't take into account real world scenarios and only looks at raw data to determine player value) to see what trades for these guys would look like. Sign me up for Alvarez, even though he is a lefty, everyday. Ryan would be a hard one to say goodbye to, but the idea of essentially flipping Cruz for Alvarez is a pretty sweet (and imaginary) deal. FWIW, Castellanos' contract ($20m/yr for 3 more years) gives him negative value so the Twins would technically over pay by trading Dobnak and Garlick for him - which is a trade I would sign off on.

As for potential signings, Teoscar Hernandez would be my top right-handed hitter to go after, but I don't know how realistic that would be. You could also mark me down for interest in a C.J. Cron reunion as a 1B/DH platoon to replace/upgrade Solano and I would be really interested to see if the White Sox decline Tim Anderson's $14m option. That could be a huge "buy low" opportunity where, if you believe in your clubhouse leaders to keep in check whatever was going on in Chicago, at worst you have essentially Willi Castro to platoon with Julien and an All-Star at best.

An article I read quoted Gray as saying that the dollars won't be the deciding factor. He said his family likes it here and that he is happy here. I'm still thinking he leaves but there is a chance he stays.

Gotcha.

Read a great article on The Athletic about Gray really liking MN and what MN is doing but will field offers.  

I'd be concerned about the years as well. He is 34, I'd be OK with 3 years not 5 and nervous about 4.

Yea I definetly think they will pick up Kepler and Polanco's option. It wouldn't make any sense not to. The real question is if they are on the 2024 Opening Day Roster. There is trade value to be had with each of them it just depends how the FO views them for the 2024 season, and could choose alternate routes

Thank you!

Beautiful article!
A step further:  What do we need?  Big bopper Right-handed professional hitter (eg JD Martinez, N Castellanos, J Abreu/Y Alverez, P Goldschmidt).
Now is the time to pounce; Trade E Joulian and either Larnach/Wallner to St Louis for P Goldschmidt (similar to last year's Arreaz for Lopez trade).
 
Lee at 2B this coming year!!

Oh I certainly like Farmer as well, and he definetly brings an intangible quality with his presence and leadership. You are correct, his expected arb salary is a bit lower than Urshela's was last year, but Urshela had an OPS+ 22 points higher than Farmer had this year. Although it is not the end all-be all, Farmer's defense at SS was not liked at all by the metrics this year. It is unfortunate, but it appears with the salary and upcoming talent that he will be playing elsewhere next summer. As for Gordon, he has definetly slid down the pecking order, but I dont see the Twins dumping him for nothing given he has 4 years left of team control and just as recent as last year showed some very solid upside. 
Good luck with your desk work!!!

Wow 😲! Nicely laid out.

I'm not Brian, but thank you... I think🤣

Oh I certainly like Farmer as well, and he definetly brings an intangible quality with his presence and leadership. You are correct, his expected arb salary is a bit lower than Urshela's was last year, but Urshela had an OPS+ 22 points higher than Farmer had this year. Although it is not the end all-be all, Farmer's defense at SS was not liked at all by the metrics this year. It is unfortunate, but it appears with the salary and upcoming talent that he will be playing elsewhere next summer. As for Gordon, he has definetly slid down the pecking order, but I dont see the Twins dumping him for nothing given he has 4 years left of team control and just as recent as last year showed some very solid upside. 
Good luck with your desk work!!!

Yea I definetly think they will pick up Kepler and Polanco's option. It wouldn't make any sense not to. The real question is if they are on the 2024 Opening Day Roster. There is trade value to be had with each of them it just depends how the FO views them for the 2024 season, and could choose alternate routes

I think the Twins have a chance of resigning Gray.  Depends on how much he wants.  He is durable enough meaning he avoids the serious injuries.  If the will go 3 at 70 million the Twins should be in the conversation.  At least with Free agency the way it is too heavy with starting pitching helps the Twins in that they can find a starter if they want. There will be options.  And the rotation would be my biggest concern going into the offseason with the need for a number 2-3 starter and depth too.  Next year we have Lopez, Paddack, Ober, Varland, and……. A good number 2-3 would keep the rotation a strength.  
 
Im curious to see the Pagan saga play out.  Do we or don’t we resign him.  
 
I can see the Twins resigning Solano.  Depends on if they want to keep Farmer and Gordon and Castro next season.  I think one of the bunch is gone.  The biggest reason not to bring him back is so his playing time goes to Lee so Lee can compete for rookie of the year.  Doesn’t the team get an incentive pick if the rookie of the year starts the season on the team and plays the whole season?
 
If Gray signs elsewhere for 50 million + we essentially traded a # 20-25 pick. (I forget where Petty was Drafted) for 2 years of Gray and a 31-35 pick.  That’s a good deal.  

Mlbtraderumors shows his projected arbitration salary at 6.6 million which is reasonable for a super utility player.  We need a solid backup SS.  And with what we gave up to get him we may as well get more value from that trade… jk.  But anyways he is exactly what we thought we were getting with Marwin a few seasons back when we gave him a 2 year contract.  I’m not saying he is a given to return but I think if nothing else we will get him back because we could probably trade since the free agent market for SS especially is weak.  

I will take that bet.  Here is my probabilities
High Probability - Solano, Taylor.   Solano is by far the best hitter and provided suitable defense.  The Twins won because of their depth including Solano and Taylor.  I think both are high on the Twins priority for depth signings
50/50 - Twins have seemed to like Pagan more than any other fan.  That they were rewarded this year, may encourage them to try again, even though in general they do not give contracts to relievers.  
Low probability - Gray, Maeda  and Mahle.  Signing Gray would negate a possible draft pick,  however of all the pitchers,  he has an excellent track record and wouldn't break the bank.  Of the top pitchers he will likely end up with the cheapest contract.  His comment about wanting to make a run in the playoffs also caught my eye,  I think he fits best in a mid market team and he knows it after his Yankee experience, if he thinks the Twins have a the highest probability of small market teams to make a run in the future he may be willing to sign with the Twins.  Everything in my gut says no,  but we also went through the Correa saga last year.   Maeda is also another player that would likely come fairly cheap for his expected performance.  Mahle is the one with the highest ceiling but with Paddack already at a innings limit likely,  its probably not in the Twins interest to get another pitcher that will be unable to perform for a couple months.  

Thanks, Brian, great job! I'm looking forward to the off-season

I hope you're wrong, though what you say makes sense.

It is just something that is possible, I'm not sure if they will or not. Similar to Gio Urshela last year, they may not want to pay that much for his last arb year and rather save his spot for a new acquisition or young guy such as Brooks Lee