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Andrew Mahlke

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  1. Like
    Andrew Mahlke got a reaction from Minny505 in A Trend With Twins First Basemen   
    This is awesome analysis, I think Kirilloff is definitely the Twins 1B of the future, and he got extremely unlucky this year. This Baseball Savant leaderboard shows that Kirilloff's expected batting average (based on statcast factors) was .291 but his lack of luck caused him to hit .251. This 40 point difference was the 8th highest in all of MLB among players with > 100 batted balls. His expected slugging percentage was .541 but he only slugged .423. The 118 point difference was the second highest in MLB among players with >100 batted balls.
    He was also extremely unlucky with injury. There was a noticeable difference after June and you could see that his wrist was bothering him. If Kirilloff can overcome the wrist injury and get back to mashing balls, it will only be a matter of time until he is one of the best hitters in the American League.
  2. Like
    Andrew Mahlke got a reaction from TopGunn#22 in A Trend With Twins First Basemen   
    This is awesome analysis, I think Kirilloff is definitely the Twins 1B of the future, and he got extremely unlucky this year. This Baseball Savant leaderboard shows that Kirilloff's expected batting average (based on statcast factors) was .291 but his lack of luck caused him to hit .251. This 40 point difference was the 8th highest in all of MLB among players with > 100 batted balls. His expected slugging percentage was .541 but he only slugged .423. The 118 point difference was the second highest in MLB among players with >100 batted balls.
    He was also extremely unlucky with injury. There was a noticeable difference after June and you could see that his wrist was bothering him. If Kirilloff can overcome the wrist injury and get back to mashing balls, it will only be a matter of time until he is one of the best hitters in the American League.
  3. Like
    Andrew Mahlke got a reaction from cjm0926 in A Trend With Twins First Basemen   
    This is awesome analysis, I think Kirilloff is definitely the Twins 1B of the future, and he got extremely unlucky this year. This Baseball Savant leaderboard shows that Kirilloff's expected batting average (based on statcast factors) was .291 but his lack of luck caused him to hit .251. This 40 point difference was the 8th highest in all of MLB among players with > 100 batted balls. His expected slugging percentage was .541 but he only slugged .423. The 118 point difference was the second highest in MLB among players with >100 batted balls.
    He was also extremely unlucky with injury. There was a noticeable difference after June and you could see that his wrist was bothering him. If Kirilloff can overcome the wrist injury and get back to mashing balls, it will only be a matter of time until he is one of the best hitters in the American League.
  4. Like
    Andrew Mahlke reacted to 21bdp21 in Checking in on the Twins 2021 Draft Class: Part 2   
    Dylan Neuse excites me, with an older brother in the Dodgers system that gives me hope for the younger see article listed below. 

     https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-are-great-athletes-more-likely-to-be-the-younger-siblings/
  5. Like
    Andrew Mahlke reacted to 4twinsJA in Checking in on the Twins 2021 Draft Class: Part 2   
    Thanks Andrew, great information. Odds decrease for players to make MLB after 10th round but plenty of success stories in past. I am most excited about Lavalle, Fester, and Perez.  Will see how they do next year, playing a full season. 
  6. Like
    Andrew Mahlke reacted to Doctor Gast in Checking in on the Twins 2021 Draft Class: Part 1   
    Thank you Andrew for this article. Makes me excited about these guys. Your work is professional and should be on front and center news at least the forum format. Not the overlooked sometimes blog. I'm a fan keep up the good work and don't be swayed.
  7. Like
    Andrew Mahlke reacted to Minny505 in Checking in on the Twins 2021 Draft Class: Part 1   
    Just want to throw out a thank you for writing this. Really fun read. 
  8. Like
    Andrew Mahlke reacted to DocBauer in Checking in on the Twins 2021 Draft Class: Part 1   
    Thank you for a great write up and wonderful review. Well done!
    What I find so interesting about this draft, which I haven't really heard anyone else talk about, is the Twins first 4 picks all came from northern climate schools. There has long been a prejudice against players from northern climate as they don't have year round opportunities to play, and those schools don't always get the same attention in recruiting from southern prospects. (Petty is a HS kid of course and wasn't a recruit). But I think recent history has begun to change that perspective. Talent is talent and if someone needs an extra half season or so to develop, so what if he's ultimately as good or better.
    Very happy to see 3 LH pitchers selected. I know you don't draft for need, but some solid LH arms ARE a need in the system, really excited about Hajjar and his frame. Guarantee his velocity goes up, and with a great change, I see a ton of potential. Ditto for Macleod, though with a curve and needing a change. Not sure about physical growth and velocity with Povich, but the control certainly seems to be there. He seems to have a nice assortment of pitches it's just a question how well his repertoire plays with at least a little better velocity. Is he another Barnes? Or is there more there?
    The bat and power of Encarnacion-strand plays. From all reports, the arm is excellent. What I care about is does he have decent feet? Does he have hands of stone, or are they pliable? His range may be limited. But with decdnt feet and a good arm I'd keep him at 3B as long as possible. 
    Drafting 2 catchers in the top 10 with potential is always a good idea to me.
     
  9. Like
    Andrew Mahlke got a reaction from tarheeltwinsfan in What should the Twins offer Byron Buxton?   
    Thank you I really appreciate that! We need to lock Buxton up for the long-term I agree.
  10. Like
    Andrew Mahlke got a reaction from Doctor Gast in A 21-22 Offseason Idea   
    I don't think the Marlins do Sanchez for Garver straight up. Sanchez has the potential to be a top 10-20 pitcher in the league so we would most likely have to give up a top 5 prospect.
  11. Like
    Andrew Mahlke reacted to TheLeviathan in What should the Twins offer Byron Buxton?   
    I appreciate the effort and math that went into this.  I personally would probably shave another 10% off of every tier and the base and would feel more comfortable.  I've always thought the $/WAR figures were a tad silly and even with your excellent work recalibrating them I still think it start too high.
    Great read!
  12. Like
    Andrew Mahlke reacted to TopGunn#22 in What should the Twins offer Byron Buxton?   
    Nice, well thought out and explained article Andrew.  I, personally have no idea what they should pay him.  I only know, that when he PLAYS...he's very good.  Your article lays a foundation of how the Twins (and Byron as well) should approach this.  A solid "BASE" salary, and then incentives for games played to reach an overall salary.  This protects the Twins should Byron, once again, get injured.  It also protects the potential future earnings of Buxton and would incentivize him to remain a Twin.  And look, once the Twins and Byron settle on what he's "worth" if the Twins are unable to put together a pitching staff (like the Angels with Trout) then teams like the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox and Mets will STILL be willing to trade for him.  But as a front office, the Twins can't just let him walk.  They MUST get a deal done.
  13. Incorrect
    Andrew Mahlke got a reaction from GV14218 in What should the Twins offer Byron Buxton?   
    Thank you I really appreciate that! We need to lock Buxton up for the long-term I agree.
  14. Like
    Andrew Mahlke reacted to tony&rodney in What should the Twins offer Byron Buxton?   
    Where was it that there was an article stating that the actual correct number for WAR was just over $4 million? Fangraphs?
    Buxton would be wise to sign for 7/$140 million. If the Twins can get a 7/$80 million base, they should absolutely go really high with incentives.
  15. Like
    Andrew Mahlke reacted to Rosterman in What should the Twins offer Byron Buxton?   
    I haven't figured out the best spot to bat Buxton in the order. Of course, it would help if there were better batters to put around him.
     
    Too often people equate speed with stealing bases, but a lot of it is taking that extra base and testing a fielder, or coming home on a sacrifice.
     
    You have to figure the Buxton camp almost wants to see the arbitration process. He will, undoubtedly, go forward towards the $10 million mark. What the Twins offer for their end will go along ways towards Byron playing ball with the Twins.
     
    His next alternative is to take a qualifying offer at the end of 2022. Buxton's best bet would be to be a trade piece during the season, which means a team will pay "how much" for half a season of play.
     
    Buxton and his agent know full well that if Byron has a good, solid 2022 season, he can easily get $100 million for 4 years. If he excels, maybe even push that envelope more. Four years pushes him into an arena of another contract, as a corner outfielder. Would that multi-year contract exceed, say, $33 million for three more seasons?
     
    The Twins best bet would be incentive LOOOOOONG-TERM contract, like the 7/$133 fielded above with play incentives on top of that. There was no reason for Byron to take the Twins 2021 mid-season offer of many many years and around $80 million or so with LOTS of incentives.
     
    He is playing purely for 2023 at this point, with hopes that he stays healthy all season and has production going on around him.
     
    We all ask "how much is enough" and so many of us, in a similar situation, would not want to be taken advantage of. Yet a team CAN only focus so much of their salary on a single player and, sadly, with Buxton there are questionable futures attached. 
     
    It is sad that in baseball there is no crying, but it all comes down to money in so many players and how they see their love of the sport. 
     
     
  16. Like
    Andrew Mahlke reacted to TwinsDr2021 in Which Free Agent Starter Fits the Twins?   
    IMO, Ray, Rondon, Matz are the best fits.
  17. Like
    Andrew Mahlke reacted to dex8425 in What should the Twins offer Byron Buxton?   
    Thanks for this, was a pleasure to read. 7/133 actually seems more than fair to Buxton. I wouldn't make him the highest paid player in baseball. He's not Mike Trout, because Trout has actually proven he can stay healthy and win MVP's. 
    7/133 would be a huge gamble for the Twins. If Buxton wants more than that I'd honestly try and trade him this offseason. 
  18. Like
    Andrew Mahlke reacted to Doctor Gast in What should the Twins offer Byron Buxton?   
    To answer my own ?. It looks like they offered him 70M for  base pay. This I've heard he has no problem with, it's the incentives where there's a problem. To me Buck isn't asking too much.
  19. Like
    Andrew Mahlke reacted to Doctor Gast in What should the Twins offer Byron Buxton?   
    Andrew, love your article! Love your common sense backed up with unbias data. I encourage you to write as often as you can because you're a pleasure to read and to disarm any false ideas out there. 
    This is a fair contract (the # of years could be tricky), no more fooling around. Get it done!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    BTW, what has been offered?
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