Jump to content
  • Create Account

Otto von Ballpark

Community Moderator
  • Posts

    19,522
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    72

Reputation Activity

  1. Like
    Otto von Ballpark reacted to ashbury in Do you have the right stuff to be the top contributor in our community?   
    We all need to click Like on this blog post of Brock's so that he can keep the prize he so clearly esteems.
  2. Like
    Otto von Ballpark reacted to ashbury in Preview: 2021 Twins 30th Anniversary Celebration (from 2051)   
    "Local Writer Resigns Self to Life on Opinion Page. Multiple sources confirm to Twins Daily that Twins Daily is getting out of the satire business, as real life has overtaken the venerable literary form. RandBalls Stu will be writing occasional editorial opinion pieces, and handling the Classified Ads desk, until a new opportunity presents itself..."
  3. Like
    Otto von Ballpark got a reaction from VivaBomboRivera! in Preview: 2021 Twins 30th Anniversary Celebration (from 2051)   
    This is straight news! As I understand, Stu has been shifted to the opinion page.
  4. Like
    Otto von Ballpark reacted to VivaBomboRivera! in Preview: 2021 Twins 30th Anniversary Celebration (from 2051)   
    Get outta the way, RandBalls Stu!
  5. Like
    Otto von Ballpark reacted to jorgenswest in Can Someone Find Tyler Duffey?   
    Duffey will be 31 in December. This might simply be decline. The decline can be sudden for relievers. They often have one really effective pitch and when they lose a little on that pitch they don’t have anything else to fall back on.
  6. Like
    Otto von Ballpark got a reaction from wsnydes in Average OPS By Position vs. Twins Starters   
    I appreciate the effort, but that article is very old (2007), its data even older (2004-2006), and beyond that, it is just generally flawed:
    https://twinsdaily.com/forums/topic/49850-624-ops-spring/page/3/?tab=comments#comment-1017903
    Fortunately, if you want to do your own research in that direction, there are great public tools available. I'd recommend the Fangraphs Splits Leaderboard, as its "position" split is by position played (not position qualified for, like some other Fangraphs pages), and it can also take custom date ranges, even spanning multiple seasons:
    https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards
    You'd probably need to copy and paste data into a spreadsheet to average the top 30 by PA at a given position (the PA filter only applies to the player list, not to the league-wide splits).
  7. Like
    Otto von Ballpark got a reaction from Mike Sixel in Average OPS By Position vs. Twins Starters   
    I appreciate the effort, but that article is very old (2007), its data even older (2004-2006), and beyond that, it is just generally flawed:
    https://twinsdaily.com/forums/topic/49850-624-ops-spring/page/3/?tab=comments#comment-1017903
    Fortunately, if you want to do your own research in that direction, there are great public tools available. I'd recommend the Fangraphs Splits Leaderboard, as its "position" split is by position played (not position qualified for, like some other Fangraphs pages), and it can also take custom date ranges, even spanning multiple seasons:
    https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards
    You'd probably need to copy and paste data into a spreadsheet to average the top 30 by PA at a given position (the PA filter only applies to the player list, not to the league-wide splits).
  8. Like
    Otto von Ballpark got a reaction from glunn in Revisiting Falvine Trades: Part 2, The Jaime García Saga   
    It would hurt less if we could win one of these lotteries sometime!
  9. Like
    Otto von Ballpark reacted to Mill1634 in Revisiting Falvine Trades: Part 2, The Jaime García Saga   
    In retrospect, the trade hurts after seeing Ynoa come up and have success with the Braves. However, at the time I don't think it was an outrageous move, as Ynoa was a teenager lottery ticket arm who fail a whole lot more than they hit. This one just happened to hit (or throw?). As far as Littell, he had some good outings with the Twins and looked like he could possibly be a consistent middle reliever, but turns out it was all smoke and mirrors.
     
    Really liking this series!
  10. Like
    Otto von Ballpark got a reaction from Minny505 in Revisiting Falvine Trades: Part 1, Ryan Pressly   
    While relatively minor in terms of WAR, it's a very interesting trade to analyze.
    There are a couple other factors worth considering:
    1. The Twins traded Pressly in 2018, but then turned around and traded minor league assets for relief help at the 2019 deadline. Had they kept Pressly, maybe those assets could have gone toward bolstering the lineup and rotation instead. Hard to imagine what would break the playoff curse at this point, but a different approach in 2019 (and 2020) could have helped.
    2. Alcala and Celestino could easily out-produce Pressly over the span of their team control years -- but if those performances come in seasons when the rest of the team is poor, they may be less valuable than Pressly's 2019 could have been to a postseason team.
    3. I'm not sure how to phrase it, but piggybacking on #2, I think future WAR can often be "discounted" a little bit compared to present WAR. Maybe "opportunity cost"? If Alcala contributes 1 WAR to the 2022 pen, that's nice -- but it's not as if we would have been 1 WAR worse in 2022 if we hadn't made the Pressly trade. Four years of FA, trade, and development decisions would have all changed a bit in that alternate scenario, and we probably could have come up with a 2022 alternative that provided some percentage of Alcala's contribution. Enough that a slight edge in WAR may not be enough to tip the scales toward the Twins side of the ledger -- some plus performances from Alcala and Celestino might be necessary for that.
  11. Like
    Otto von Ballpark got a reaction from Hosken Bombo Disco in Revisiting Falvine Trades: Part 1, Ryan Pressly   
    While relatively minor in terms of WAR, it's a very interesting trade to analyze.
    There are a couple other factors worth considering:
    1. The Twins traded Pressly in 2018, but then turned around and traded minor league assets for relief help at the 2019 deadline. Had they kept Pressly, maybe those assets could have gone toward bolstering the lineup and rotation instead. Hard to imagine what would break the playoff curse at this point, but a different approach in 2019 (and 2020) could have helped.
    2. Alcala and Celestino could easily out-produce Pressly over the span of their team control years -- but if those performances come in seasons when the rest of the team is poor, they may be less valuable than Pressly's 2019 could have been to a postseason team.
    3. I'm not sure how to phrase it, but piggybacking on #2, I think future WAR can often be "discounted" a little bit compared to present WAR. Maybe "opportunity cost"? If Alcala contributes 1 WAR to the 2022 pen, that's nice -- but it's not as if we would have been 1 WAR worse in 2022 if we hadn't made the Pressly trade. Four years of FA, trade, and development decisions would have all changed a bit in that alternate scenario, and we probably could have come up with a 2022 alternative that provided some percentage of Alcala's contribution. Enough that a slight edge in WAR may not be enough to tip the scales toward the Twins side of the ledger -- some plus performances from Alcala and Celestino might be necessary for that.
  12. Like
    Otto von Ballpark got a reaction from d-mac in Adam Walker: Looking for Comps   
    Springer had almost double Walker's minor league BB rate (12.5% vs 6.9%).  Despite some similarities in K% and ISO, I think Springer was a very different type of hitter.  (And player overall -- Springer also stole bases at over 4x the rate of Walker, with a better success rate, and played CF throughout his minor league career.  By my estimate, Springer also tops Walker in career MILB wRC+ 155 to 124.)
     
    Steven Moya might be an interesting current comp?
     
    Walker's minor league offensive performance to date is actually not unlike Arcia's MLB offensive performance to date.  Similar BB%, K%, BABIP, AVG/OBP, although generally much more SLG/ISO.  It will be interesting to see how that translates to AAA and MLB -- if it can hold, with solid defense, he could be a useful piece.
  13. Like
    Otto von Ballpark got a reaction from davidc3915 in Paul Molitor: Spanish-speaking Players Expected to Learn English   
    So, are you saying the Twins should have hired his Spanish-speaking brother, Raul Molitor?
  14. Like
    Otto von Ballpark got a reaction from GoGonzoJournal in Paul Molitor: Spanish-speaking Players Expected to Learn English   
    So, are you saying the Twins should have hired his Spanish-speaking brother, Raul Molitor?
×
×
  • Create New...