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Otto von Ballpark

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Otto von Ballpark last won the day on July 22

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About Otto von Ballpark

  • Birthday 01/07/1980

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  1. The Twins exceed 2 million in season attendance for the first time in franchise history. It's such a hot ticket that Minneapolis police are cracking down on ticket scalping. Despite losing the game to the 2nd place Royals, the Twins still hold a division lead of 5 games with only 7 to play. Also see an ad for TwinsVision Pay-Per-View, the only way to watch these games without going to the Metrodome. View full video
  2. The Twins exceed 2 million in season attendance for the first time in franchise history. It's such a hot ticket that Minneapolis police are cracking down on ticket scalping. Despite losing the game to the 2nd place Royals, the Twins still hold a division lead of 5 games with only 7 to play. Also see an ad for TwinsVision Pay-Per-View, the only way to watch these games without going to the Metrodome.
  3. Here's how the AL Wild Card race stands as of now (Sep. 24), using Fangraphs "coin flip" odds: TEAM W L PCT WCBG WC ODDS REMAINING SCHEDULE Red Sox 88 65 .575 +2 94.4% 3 vs NYY; 3 at BAL; 3 at WSH Yankees 86 67 .562 - 61.4% 3 at BOS; 3 at TOR; 3 vs TB Blue Jays 85 68 .556 1 32.8% 3 at MIN; 3 vs NYY; 3 vs BAL Mariners 84 69 .549 2 10.5% 3 at LAA; 3 vs OAK; 3 vs LAA Athletics 82 71 .536 4 0.6% 3 vs HOU; 3 at SEA; 3 at HOU I like to use the "coin flip" odds (every game is assumed to be 50/50) at this point because there are such a small number of games left and anything can happen, like the Twins winning. But FWIW, Toronto would be upgraded to 41.4%, with the Yankees and Mariners downgraded to 55.7% and 5.3% respectively, using Fangraphs projections instead of coin flips. The Mariners have defeated the A's an incredible 9 times in a row now, 12-4 against them overall for the season. Just an even split there (7-7) would have had the A's tied with the Blue Jays now and the Mariners all but officially eliminated.
  4. While it was a feel-good story, Maggi's call-up last weekend was fully legitimate -- we had a shortstop inactive for reasons unrelated to getting Maggi on the roster, and Maggi was the #1 shortstop in St. Paul with a respectable 122 wRC+ on the season to boot. And getting into a 4-run game late in Toronto, as either a pinch hitter or defensive replacement, would have served some legitimate purpose too -- get his feet wet in case we actually needed him to enter or even start a future, closer game. Maggi may still return to the Twins this season and see game action, but it's likely to look a bit more forced -- for example, a phantom IL trip for someone, combined with a scrubs lineup or mass substitutions in game 162. It still counts, of course, and he could have advance notice for family to attend, but it would have also been nice to take more advantage of the natural opportunity that presented itself last weekend. He earned it!
  5. This is a common misconception that I have repeated in the past too. But apparently one day of MLB service time only qualifies a player to *buy into* the MLB player health plan for life. It's not free for non-active players. (It's probably a pretty good health plan, but I'm not sure how much it costs.) And the pension benefit for 43 days of service (one-quarter of a season) is far from lucrative or even livable. Here's a document detailing pension benefits from 2012. Best as I can calculate, from page 114 and the table 7 on page 112, 43 days of service would have resulted in a pension of $328 per month, approx. $4,000 per year, beginning at age 62. To get ~$30,000 per year at age 62, you'd need 2 full years of MLB service time.
  6. Maggi indeed did NOT have any family travel to Toronto, according to this: https://www.mlb.com/news/drew-maggi-called-up-to-twins-after-11-minor-league-seasons Making things tougher is the fact that his dad doesn't have a passport, and the short notice meant his family wouldn't be able to make it to Canada to potentially see him play.
  7. As for the Toronto series: Game 1: we won 7-3. Presumably Maggi plays solid defense? If so, we could have easily justified inserting Maggi as a defensive replacement for the bottom of the ninth, either directly at 2B for Arraez or at SS with Polanco shifting to 2B. (Pinch-hitting would have been a little tougher, you would have had to pinch-hit for Arraez leading off the top of the 8th.) Game 2: we lost 6-2. Astudillo played the whole game at 1B, seems like that would have been an easy spot to somehow switch Maggi in defensively for the last inning or two (Astudillo was the last out in the top of the 7th, Jays extended the lead to 4 in the bottom of the 7th). If you don't sub for Astudillo, note that Gordon, Polanco, and Donaldson went down quietly in the top of the 8th, so it would have been relatively painless to switch into one of those spots defensively for the bottom of the 8th. And if we still chose not to use Maggi on defense up to this point, once Kepler reached with 2 outs in the 9th, down 4 runs against the Jays closer, with Jeffers batting, Astudillo on deck, and Gordon in the hole, it seems like we could have pinch hit with Maggi without anyone thinking our "play to win" mission was particularly compromised. Game 3: lost 5-3. Fell way behind early but we hung around this game. FWIW, Jake Cave made the last out, again vs the Jays closer -- Cave represented the tying run, although Rortvedt was on deck so a rally didn't seem super-likely. But probably the toughest of the 3 games to justify inserting Maggi.
  8. The 40-man isn't the limiting factor here, so much as the 28-man. While some guys will undoubtedly get days off in the season's final days, I am not sure if any of those names will go on the 10-day IL to open up a 28-man roster spot for Maggi. I suppose we could do a "phantom" IL placement before the last game of the season? Looks like a few clubs may have done something like that before their final game in 2020: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/transactions/#month=9&year=2020 A few guys have options -- notably Astudillo among position players, and maybe Garza Jr., Barraclough, etc. among pitchers -- and the Saints schedule runs through Oct. 3 just like ours, although again that's a 10-day thing, unless you do it just before the last game.
  9. B-Ref has Berrios with a couple top 10 AL ranks in those categories, prior to 2021: 9th in wins in 2017 8th in ERA (and 9th in ERA+) in 2019 And 11th in total K's in both 2018 and 2019 too. Plus 8th in IP for both 2018 and 2019, I think that's pretty close to the characterization "routinely top 10". Keep in mind Berrios started 2017 in the minors, so 2018 was his first full MLB season.
  10. I don't have a subscription either. Just gauging how useful it would be to have one! Looks like you could use it to get separate lists for each of your 3 start definitions (5-6 IP: 0 ER, 7 IP: 0-1 ER, or 8-9 IP: 0-2 ER) but you'd have to merge them and calculate the percentage of total starts on your own, I guess. https://stathead.com/baseball/game_finder.cgi?type=p
  11. Thanks for sharing! Are you able to use Baseball Reference's "Stathead" or some other tool to easily list these pitchers? https://stathead.com/
  12. It's fair to want more innings, but Berrios only threw 88 and 75 pitches in those two starts. 88 in 4 IP (vs NYY) isn't great but he set down the side in order on 12 pitches in his final inning -- it's not like he forced the Twins to remove him after 4 (although he likely wasn't going 6). And 75 in 5 IP (vs HOU) is pretty normal for any good pitcher -- his last inning saw a leadoff single stranded, 14 pitches thrown. It's certainly not Berrios's fault that he was removed at that point in that particular game. I'm not arguing Berrios is an ace -- I co-sign the Radke comp, a quality starting pitcher but ideally more of a postseason #2 -- but I'm also not sure how much his postseason record to date should be held against him.
  13. Berrios left his last two playoff appearances (and his only 2 playoff starts) with the game tied, and left no baserunners either. No decision in both. His first playoff appearance, he did leave while trailing and was credited with the loss, although it was in long relief of Ervin Santana, rather than a start. (FWIW, Berrios also started that 2017 season in the minors too. Not sure how much it should count against him, relative to the later appearances and accomplishments.)
  14. Webster's defines "ace" as "a combat pilot who has brought down at least five enemy airplanes." So no, I don't consider Berrios an "ace" -- although I would be very interested to see any evidence otherwise!
  15. Here's Sabato, age 22 this year in high-A: # Name Team Level Age PA BB% K% BB/K AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO Spd BABIP wSB wRC wRAA wOBA wRC+ 1 Aaron Sabato MIN A+ — 97 19.6% 33.0% 0.59 .253 .402 .613 1.015 .360 2.2 .297 -0.2 21 8.1 .431 165 Here's Brent Rooker, age 22 in 2017 in high-A: # Name Team Level Age PA BB% K% BB/K AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO Spd BABIP wSB wRC wRAA wOBA wRC+ 1 Brent Rooker MIN A+ 22 162 9.9% 29.0% 0.34 .280 .364 .552 .917 .273 1.2 .341 0.0 29 11.4 .415 166 Note that due to the minor league reorganization, Rooker's high-A experience was for Fort Myers in the Florida State League which is generally regarded as pitcher-friendly, while Sabato is in Cedar Rapids instead. Thus Fangraphs calculates their wRC+ as virtually the same despite Sabato having a 100 point advantage in OPS. Rooker's K% was about 7.5 above the league rate; Sabato's, about 6.4. Sabato's league BB% is about 2.1 higher than Rooker's league too, although Sabato to his credit is blowing that difference away! And while Sabato had a one year layoff due to the pandemic, he had 367 PA at A-ball this year to prepare for high-A. Rooker skipped A-ball in 2017, going directly from 99 PA in rookie ball to high-A.
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