NapoleonComplex reacted to TopGunn#22 in Don't You... Forget About AK
I expect AK to HIT. He's just a darn good hitter. Cream, eventually, rises to the top. It's also why I think hanging onto Kepler is wise. Max needs to figure out how to beat the shift. He still hits the ball HARD, it's just usually into the teeth of the shift. An off season of working on a new approach is needed if Max is to remain a major leaguer. He's already a talented defensive outfielder, something Larnach will never be. Larnach may be "serviceable," but he'll never be what Max is defensively. With other young outfielders coming thru the system, I'm trading Larnach for young, controllable pitching. With Trevor, I'm targeting the Marlins.
Kiriloff isn't going anywhere though. He will be "decent" in the outfield and looks to be pretty "slick" at 1B. But it's Kiriloff's bat that will be a force in the Twins lineup for many years to come.
NapoleonComplex reacted to USAFChief in Buyer Beware: Flaws with the Top-5 Free Agent Shortstops
The Twins aren't going to sign any of these players, but...
The "now isn't the time" argument has always been wrong. There is never the "wrong time" to get better players, yet people make that argument all the time.
"Wait till we're one player away to sign that player" is, to put it bluntly, a stupid idea.
You wouldnt be one player short had you signed that player when you could. Not to mention that "one player" might not be there now.
Sign good players when you can.
Of the three, I'd take Correa, but the Twins won't sign any of these five.
NapoleonComplex reacted to TopGunn#22 in 4 Plausible Developments That Would Dramatically Alter the Twins' Fortunes
It would be great if all or most of those things pan out. I'll add two more:
Austin Martin makes the team out of spring training with his defensive versatility and well rounded offensive game giving the Twins an on base machine at the top of their order to replace the traded Luis Arraez who brings back a solid starting pitcher with multiple years of team control. Martin eventually settles in at Left Field where his defense invokes memories of the Royals Alex Gordon.
Jordan Balazovic discovers how great it is to be healthy all the time and wows in April and May, first in AA and then at AAA for St. Paul. After his first June start for the Saints in which he throws 7 shut out 2-hit innings striking out 12 he is moved to the Big Team where he impresses with a performance that earns him Rookie of the Year votes while flashing #1 starter stuff. With a couple of solid veterans fronting the Twins rotation and Balazovic, Ryan and Ober holding down the #3, #4, and #5 spots the Twins reclaim the division from a talented White Sox outfit who fire Tony Larussa after another 1st round playoff exit. The Twins meanwhile, exorcise all their Playoff winless demons and cruise thru the post season without losing a game in route to winning the the World Series over the mighty L.A. Dodgers in a 4-game sweep.
"How Sweet it IS !!!"
NapoleonComplex reacted to jmlease1 in End of the Line for Brent Rooker?
I would look to deal Rooker if he could add value in a package. You don't want to give him away, but I don't think he's got all that much of a future in MN. His power certainly plays, but I'm unconvinced that he's going to make enough contact for him to be a significant contributor. I have more faith in Larnach developing at this point (and Larnach is clearly better on D).
He's still got an option, so really the question is whether he's worth keeping on the 40-man, and he probably is. But he's likely to get passed up by other players in the OF (Larnach, Kirilloff, Martin, Celestino, etc) so even with guys like Cave likely gone I think for him to find a regular role requires a significant injury. (Celestino's development in AAA is significant, because he's right-handed, can play all three defensive spots, and if he can hit like his minor-league track record suggests in his next call-up...he's a real asset. He wasn't ready for MLB this year, but his performance in AAA suggests he may be next year.)
NapoleonComplex reacted to ashbury in Sano Sets Strikeout Record
At first I was guessing this was purely an artifact of his era. If so, expect the record to be broken within a few short years, by someone already well on his way.
Perfect use for baseball-reference.com's Stathead tool. So I asked for a list of active players with 1000 or fewer SO, to see who might be a candidate. Everyone near the top of that sorted list already had more than the 660 games Sano has. So then I asked it to show me such candidates who also had fewer than that number of games. Joey Gallo has 868 SO in 613 games - he's not going to make it at that rate. Aaron Judge has 772 in 558 - slightly better rate but that's not going to cut it. Yoan Moncada with 671/525 - nope.
The tool doesn't (to my knowledge) let me sort by a ratio, but a quick scan of the list sorted by SO doesn't reveal a viable candidate with any kind of track record.
As with any negative milestone of counting stats (e.g. 20 losses by a starting pitcher) you have to be pretty good to achieve it. The truly bad never make it that far.
Congratulations, Miguel. Your record may stand a while.
NapoleonComplex reacted to gunnarthor in How quickly we Forget
I think this depends entirely on how you view the hand they were dealt. I think you and I disagree on this but they were given a team with a nucleus of Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Polanco, Berrios, Rosario along with solid vets in Santana, Gibson, Escobar, Dozier and a few up-and-coming prospects who, while not core quality, were good in May, Rogers, Duffey and Garver. The team was a year removed from nearly making the playoffs. They were also gifted a solid farm system and the first pick in the draft as well as a supplemental first rounder. That core was going to win, no matter what. The FO's job was to keep the window open and support the core. I think they failed pretty substantially on both of those parts. You can disagree.
I think the marks against the FO are pretty strong - they clearly did not understand/properly value the talent they had in the system. In their first season, they didn't have any clear direction on what the team could do - they tried to trade their best player before the season started but failed and were sort of mocked for overreaching. Then they decided to go with what they had and even traded for another starter before completely reversing their position and trading for the future while the team went ahead and made the playoffs despite the FO, not because of it. They then extended Molitor and changed their minds a year later. No idea of the direction they wanted.
The talent they lost - especially in 17-18 - really hurt the future of the Twins. The pitching pipeline failed to develop. The drafts have been mediocre. I've seen enough even though I'm sure they'll come back next year.
NapoleonComplex reacted to Mike Sixel in How quickly we Forget
I'm continually confused by statements that the FO has "no idea what it is doing" "they never make good decisions" etc...............
They literally won the division the last two years.
You can be disappointed in this year, I think everyone is. But .... I think saying they are clueless idiots and we are only ever sold hope for the future....seems to completely ignore the last two years.
PS. Before you point out "last year doesn't count".....every team played under the same conditions, and the Twins won. It isn't their fault Covid happened....
NapoleonComplex reacted to Brock Beauchamp in Reusse Straight Talk on Twins and FO
Oh god, if Reusse could stop living in 1985 so fervently, he could have real points here. All he could talk about forever is innings pitched by starters and then later he props up Tampa and how great they do with a small payroll. And then LITERALLY IN THE NEXT BREATH he rips the Twins for not letting starters pitch through difficulty, entirely unaware of the irony of that conversation thread.
Sigh. He literally does not understand modern baseball. This entire audio clip, while it has some merit superficially, the analysis is pure trash and based in outmoded ideas but then propped up by naming teams who are the MOST against what Reusse is talking about.
Blech. Hot take garbage. Which is too bad because if someone approached those same problems without being stuck in the thinking of the mid-80s, there may be some salient points to be gathered there.
NapoleonComplex reacted to Otto von Ballpark in Help Me Understand Falvey and Levine’s Obsession with Waiver Wire Pitchers
It's not that the cupboard is bare, but it is hurt.
Duran was arguably our top/closest pitching prospect but started late and got shut down with injuries.
Colina has been out all year. Thorpe and Smeltzer most of the year. Winder moved up from AA to AAA this year but he's hurt now too. These guys were all supposed to be our top minor league depth.
Balazovic and Sands would have been the next level, each coming into the year with only 1 game of experience at AA. Balazovic missed the first part of the season, and Sands a month in the middle, so they're still only up to 14 career games each at AA in mid-August.
Exacerbating the issue, the MLB staff has been hit hard by the injury bug as well -- younger guys like Dobnak, Stashak, and Alcala, plus vets like Maeda, Pineda, and Rogers -- lots of guys. So our need for reinforcements has been greater, at the exact same time that our reinforcements themselves are depleted.
NapoleonComplex reacted to Brock Beauchamp in Andrelton Simmons Isn’t Good Enough to Get Away with This
Perhaps Stu’s best piece yet.
NapoleonComplex reacted to jmlease1 in Did the Twins Win or Lose the Trade Deadline?
I think the Twins did pretty well at the deadline. They did well in their trades of Berrios & Cruz, getting real value and quality players that are already playing and showing success at higher levels of the minors. They got rid of Happ, who had declined from being a solid pitcher in the first month or so of the season to a trash fire.
The demerits are not moving Donaldson, Pineda, and Rogers (arguably Simmons too) but there are reasons for all of them, I think. We just don't know if there were good options for Donaldson that didn't require them eating far too much of the contract. He's still an excellent player when healthy and he's been pretty healthy this year so if they had to eat the rest of this year's salary (ok) and a big chunk of 2022 & 2023...then maybe not ok. Pineda is a guy they might be looking to keep to help anchor the rotation. Rogers was hurt and it probably tanked his value. Simmons is still a fine defender, but it didn't look like SS defense was an area of significant interest among contenders.
I'd say they were slight winners by getting excellent value in the trades they made. It gets pulled back a little by not being able to make additional moves that seemed to make sense, but the net is still a positive for the Twins at the deadline.
ESPN pegged them as losers...but most of that grade is influenced by the rotten season as a whole. That's fair, but looking at just the deadline moves, I'd say they "won" as much as you can when you're selling.
NapoleonComplex reacted to roger in Did the Twins Win or Lose the Trade Deadline?
I wonder about those above who are critical for the Twins talking about trading Buxton. We don't know the context of how that happened. As I read it, they received calls inquiring about Buxton. Well, if someone calls you are gonna take it. Doesn't mean you ever considered moving him which is what the end result was.
Also agree with the general consensus that I will miss Berrios, a lot. But after reading a national report that said the Jays got robbed and Nick's piece on Martin, I am excited that the return was big...really big.
As for winning or losing at the deadline, is a win for me...big one. The two pitchers from Tampa for two months of Cruz is a huge return, much bigger than most expected. Furthermore, it would not be a surprise if at least one of the two is pitching every fifth day at Target Field next spring.
If the reports I read are true, the Twins won the Berrios trade even though we will miss a special young man. Who knows, maybe the Twins go out and offer market value a year from this winter and he comes home...although I agree that would be contrary to how they usually do business.
As for the Happ and Robles trade, I am amazed they got anything for that duo. Yes, they had to eat an unknown part of their contracts for the next two months, but to get any return is flat out robbery...IMO. And they got an actual major league pitcher as part of the Happ return. To be honest, I don't understand either of these deals.
So for me its a huge win. Yes, there were others they didn't move. But did anyone expect them to be able to move Donaldson and his huge contract? Was a bit surprised that Pineda wasn't traded. Left me wondering if they will sign him to a two year extension before the year ends. But not knowing what, if anything, was offered for Pineda and others makes it hard to say they failed by not trading someone because if the offer wasn't adequate it makes sense to say no.
NapoleonComplex reacted to Jeremy Nygaard in 5 Things to Know About Twins Deadline Centerpiece Austin Martin
I love Martin and might drive the hype train.
He was playing 3B at Vandy, but questions about his arm strength and accuracy led to a move to CF.
You can live with seeing how that plays out while developing, but the likelihood is that SS/3B and CF won't be long-term homes. 2B/LF is probably how this plays out.
He could turn out to be what you wish Arraez would be defensively, with a very similar offensive profile if the power doesn't develop.
NapoleonComplex reacted to Mike Sixel in Hansel Robles Traded to Boston Red Sox for RHP Alex Scherff
I mean, how can you not love this trade? even if it doesn't work, they added a RP in AA......
NapoleonComplex got a reaction from operation mindcrime in Miller: Several teams pursuing Berríos
Berrios to the Yankees starts with Dominguez AND Gil or Schmidt, maybe both. I would also want at least one other top 10 prospect, preferably a position player like Peraza. Yeah, it's very greedy and a quite possibly an over pay. But the Yankees are rarely in a rebuild phase because they have the resources and the allure to bring in top MLB FA talent.
NapoleonComplex reacted to jorgenswest in 2021 Trade Deadline Week Rumors
Gallo to Yankees and the Rangers go for volume in prospects rather than the Yankees top prospects.
In the Twins case and I suppose most teams it is far better to go for quality over quantity. If they all are OK prospects they eventually end up in a 40 man/rule 5 crunch. You either end up losing a few or in the worst case you don’t end up in a crunch because only a few make progress.
If the Twins trade any of their under control assets they really need to hold out for the top prospects.
NapoleonComplex got a reaction from DocBauer in It’s time for the front office to step up and ink some deals
Hayes interview with Jim Pohlad for The Athletic didn't give much of anything, as expected. However, maybe I'm reading too much into this, when questioned about current leadership, Jim didn't mention Falvey or Levine by name in his response, even though the question asked about the two and Rocco specifically.
Mods - I hope a cropped screenshot from a paid subscription piece is okay. If not, please delete
NapoleonComplex reacted to Brock Beauchamp in Sign Byron Buxton! (Buxton rejects initial extension offer)
I’d offer five years, $15m per season as a base. Every season at 80 games played, escalators begin to kick in that max out at $30m a season for 150 games played.
NapoleonComplex reacted to Brock Beauchamp in It’s time for the front office to step up and ink some deals
This is fine, thank you for asking. Snippets from behind a paywall are fine, we only ask not to publish complete content.
NapoleonComplex reacted to MN_ExPat in Three Things to Like (and Hate) about the Nelson Cruz Trade
Except for the fact that trades have always been a part of baseball. Free Agency has changed how teams approach some trades, but it's still a huge part of it's lore and tradition.
Yes, I'm bummed that he's gone from the roster but this is a part of the game. You can't truly follow baseball as a whole unless you accept all parts of it. Don't get me wrong, I understand your POV (I still hate the Johan Santana trade 😉) but this isn't really the "Yankees way". A team with a deep farm system gave up two promising prospects for a feared bat that they can insert into the middle of their lineup. This has been the way since the first leagues formed at the dawn of baseball.
NapoleonComplex reacted to Dman in Three Things to Like (and Hate) about the Nelson Cruz Trade
First thanks for the great write up. Honestly I am surprised the FO was able to get two Pitchers similar to Winder\Balazovich for 2 months of Cruz. That is 12 years of control for 2 months of Cruz assuming they don't resign him and Faucher keeps his WHIP at 2.00. Getting a prospect back that ranks 6th in our system and another at 12th is a very good get for a rental and struggling pitcher at AA.
I think this is a great move for the Rays as well. They didn't give up anything at the top of their farm system and they didn't take any chances on missing out on the best bat at the deadline assuming the Rangers don't shop Gallo. They paid a heavy price giving up two arms that were close to MLB ready but I really think Cruz can help push them over the top and would love to see them win the WS.
With this haul will the Twins stand pat? They wanted something similar for Berrios but it seemed like teams were reluctant to part with pitching that was close to MLB ready. Or now that they have that will they be more inclined to trade Jose for players that are slightly further away?
Anyway I am happy with what they were able to get for Cruz but I will miss him. I can't remember a player who came in and fit so well with the players the fans and community in such a short time. He will be Sorley missed but he does get a chance to chase that long awaited ring.