Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account


Provisional Member
  • Posts

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Reputation Activity

  1. Like
    Loon reacted to Trov in True outcomes? Really?   
    Much like Ashbury said the three true outcomes was not meant to be the stat to judge people by.  It was just meant to be another number to judge players by.  Some players have taken it to extremes.  Adam Dunn was one of the first in my memory.  Joey Gallo is a recent guy.  Personally, I find the huge strike out numbers by hitters annoying. I like to see balls in play and people running bases.  I understand there will always be guys that are sluggers that do not run and they are there to hit HR.  I just do not want a team full of them. 
    Similar, I am not a huge fan of FIP for pitchers as a judgment of their pitching.  Many people have shifted to pointing to FIP as a sign of how good someone pitches.  I get why people like the stat, but it does not measure when the three true outcomes happen.  
    For both hitters and pitchers, the three true outcomes can happen any at bat, but they are not equal depending on when.  For example, maybe a pitcher only strikes out 6 guys per 9, but he gets strike outs when he needs to.  Like when a runner is on 3rd and less than 2 outs, he gets the K, but when bases are empty he allows the ball to be in play.  I believe some pitchers these days go into every at bat looking for the K, using up a ton of pitches when you can try to induce weak contact early in count, and until you get to 2 strikes never really looks for swing and miss stuff.
    Same with hitters.  Tervor Plouffe is one I loved to point to about how his HR did not tell his story.  In 2012 he hit 24 HR, and people were excited that maybe we had a power hitter on the rise from him.  One he followed that up with 14 HR each of next 2 years with more PA, but even when you looked at that year, he had 55 RBI.  24 HR with only 55 RBI is crazy low.  Meaning most of his HR were solo shots, and normally were when game was not in doubt, either up a lot or down a lot and he was getting lessor pitchers grooving fastballs to get through the game.  
    If a player is hitting HR in meaningless at bats but striking out key situations, like runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs in close games.  That is not good.  All stats only tell part of a story and no stat should be used as the key stat to look at, but just used to see the whole picture. 
  • Create New...